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Global Carbon Budget 2019

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (E(FF)) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (E(LUC)), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (S(OCEAN)) and terrestrial CO2 sink (S(LAND)) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B(IM)), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), E(FF) was 9.5±0.5 GtC/yr, E(LUC) 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, G(ATM) 4.9±0.02 GtC/yr (2.3±0.01 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) 2.5±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) 3.2±0.6 GtC/yr, with a budget imbalance B(IM) of 0.4 GtC/yr indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in E(FF) was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC/yr, reaching 10 GtC/yr for the first time in history, E(LUC) was 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC/yr (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, G(ATM) was 5.1±0.2 GtC/yr (2.4±0.1 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) was 2.6±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) was 3.5±0.7 GtC/yr, with a B(IM) of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in E(FF) of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC/yr persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013).

global carbon budget 2019↗

Prototype and Evaluation of AutoHelp: A Case-based, Web-accessible Help Desk System for EOSDIS

AutoHelp is a case-based, Web-accessible help desk for users of the EOSDIS. Its uses a combination of advanced computer and Web technologies, knowledge-based systems tools, and cognitive engineering to offload the current, person-intensive, help desk facilities at the DAACs. As a case-based system, AutoHelp starts with an organized database of previous help requests (questions and answers) indexed by a hierarchical category structure that facilitates recognition by persons seeking assistance. As an initial proof-of-concept demonstration, a month of email help requests to the Goddard DAAC were analyzed and partially organized into help request cases. These cases were then categorized to create a preliminary case indexing system, or category structure. This category structure allows potential users to identify or recognize categories of questions, responses, and sample cases similar to their needs. Year one of this research project focused on the development of a technology demonstration. User assistance 'cases' are stored in an Oracle database in a combination of tables linking prototypical questions with responses and detailed examples from the email help requests analyzed to date. When a potential user accesses the AutoHelp system, a Web server provides a Java applet that displays the category structure of the help case base organized by the needs of previous users. When the user identifies or requests a particular type of assistance, the applet uses Java database connectivity (JDBC) software to access the database and extract the relevant cases. The demonstration will include an on-line presentation of how AutoHelp is currently structured. We will show how a user might request assistance via the Web interface and how the AutoHelp case base provides assistance. The presentation will describe the DAAC data collection, case definition, and organization to date, as well as the AutoHelp architecture. It will conclude with the year 2 proposal to more fully develop the case base, the user interface (including the category structure), interface with the current DAAC Help System, the development of tools to add new cases, and user testing and evaluation at (perhaps) the Goddard DAAC.

Mitchell, Christine M.↗

Forecasting Lightning Threat using Cloud-resolving Model Simulations

As numerical forecasts capable of resolving individual convective clouds become more common, it is of interest to see if quantitative forecasts of lightning flash rate density are possible, based on fields computed by the numerical model. Previous observational research has shown robust relationships between observed lightning flash rates and inferred updraft and large precipitation ice fields in the mixed phase regions of storms, and that these relationships might allow simulated fields to serve as proxies for lightning flash rate density. It is shown in this paper that two simple proxy fields do indeed provide reasonable and cost-effective bases for creating time-evolving maps of predicted lightning flash rate density, judging from a series of diverse simulation case study events in North Alabama for which Lightning Mapping Array data provide ground truth. One method is based on the product of upward velocity and the mixing ratio of precipitating ice hydrometeors, modeled as graupel only, in the mixed phase region of storms at the -15\dgc\ level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domainwide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domainwide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. A blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Weather Research and Forecast Model simulations of selected North Alabama cases show that this model can distinguish the general character and intensity of most convective events, and that the proposed methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because models tend to have more difficulty in correctly predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models, the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically-based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques and ensembles of cloud-allowing forecasts become available.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗

Refinement of a limit cycle oscillator model of the effects of light on the human circadian pacemaker

In 1990, Kronauer proposed a mathematical model of the effects of light on the human circadian pacemaker. Although this model predicted many general features of the response of the human circadian pacemaker to light exposure, additional data now available enable us to refine the original model. We first refined the original model by incorporating the results of a dose response curve to light into the model's predicted relationship between light intensity and the strength of the drive onto the pacemaker. Data from three bright light phase resetting experiments were then used to refine the amplitude recovery characteristics of the model. Finally, the model was tested and further refined using data from an extensive phase resetting experiment in which a 3-cycle bright light stimulus was presented against a background of dim light. In order to describe the results of the four resetting experiments, the following major refinements to the original model were necessary: (i) the relationship between light intensity (I) and drive onto the pacemaker was reduced from I1/3 to I0.23 for light levels between 150 and 10,000 lux; (ii) the van der Pol oscillator from the original model was replaced with a higher-order limit cycle oscillator so that amplitude recovery is slower near the singularity and faster near the limit cycle; (iii) a direct effect of light on circadian period (tau x) was incorporated into the model such that as I increases, tau x decreases, which is in accordance with "Aschoff's rule". This refined model generates the following testable predictions: it should be difficult to enhance normal circadian amplitude via bright light; near the critical point of a type 0 phase response curve (PRC) the slope should be steeper than it is in a type 1 PRC; and circadian period measured during forced desynchrony should be directly affected by ambient light intensity.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗

Quantitative validation of Ames IR intensity and new line lists for (32/33/34)S(16)O2, (32)S(18)O2 and (16)O(32)S(18)O

The quality of Ames-296K SO2 Infrared (IR) line list intensities is first validated by quantitative exploration of several dipole moment surfaces (DMSs) and partition sum convergence. The DMSs are computed with several of Dunning’s correlation-consistent basis sets and their vibrational dependence are compared to the empirical model derived from Stark effect experiments reported by D. Patel, D. Margolese, and T.R. Dykea [J.Chem.Phys. 70, 2740 (1979)]. The effective dipole deviations from the DMS adopted in the Ames IR lists is 0.2-0.4% for vibrational states up to 3v3. The vibrational dependence of the dipole moment is also in good agreement, except for nv1. Partition sum convergence at 296K is confirmed by new calculations with rotational quantum number J up to 150 and upper state E’ up to 8000 cm-1. The isotopologue consistency of the Ames IR line lists is superior relative to the regular Effective Hamiltonian (EH) models and Effective Dipole Moment (EDM) models. The v1+v2 and v2+v3 intensity consistency check reveals the recently reported experimental intensities need significant improvement or re-analysis. After the accuracy, convergence, and isotopologue consistency have been confirmed, the theoretical Ames-296K intensities are combined with the experimental line positions or EH models that experimental spectroscopists published after 2009. Three high-resolution IR line sets are reported for the (32/33/34)S(16)O2, (32)S(18)O2 and (16)O(32)S(18)O isotopologues: (1) the “New Lines Sets” include experimentally measured line positions; (2) the “Expanded Line Sets” include possible transitions among new rovibrational levels assigned in experiments and ground state (GS) levels predicted by reliable EH models; (3) the “Ames + MARVEL Sets” include possible transitions among all those levels reported in a recent MARVEL analysis. [Tóbiás et al, JQSRT 208, 152 (2018)]. Compared to the limited data in High-resolution TRANsmission molecular absorption database (HITRAN), these line sets have significantly improved the data coverage up to 4000 cm-1. Some missing bands can be traced to the unpublished experimental data. The isotopologue consistency of these line sets will help identify the uncertainties and defects in the experimental EH and EDM models. These line sets are good candidates for the next HITRAN update, if line shape parameters are available. The line sets can be downloaded from supplementary files or from the Ames Molecular Spectroscopic Database at http://huang.seti.org.

Xinchuan Huang↗

Investigating Extreme Events in the NASA GEOS Multiscale Modeling System

Advances in computing capabilities and scientific development have come together to evolve general circulation models into multi-scale Earth system modeling tools. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model is one such example of this evolution. The GEOS model is driven by the finite-volume cubed-sphere (FV3) non-hydrostatic dynamical core. Surrounding FV3 is a scale-aware physics package and data assimilation capability permitting multi-scale application of GEOS for sub-seasonal to seasonal climate prediction, medium range weather prediction, and global mesoscale modeling at convection allowing resolutions. GEOS also includes a comprehensive chemistry package representing a range of capabilities from basic chemistry and interactve aerosols and gaseous species, to carbon emissions and uptake, and complex ozone photochemistry. In this study, we apply the GEOS model to study the fidelity of these processes with increasing horizontal resolution and scale-aware processes in GEOS on extreme events. The GEOS model is run for 40-days beginning in August 2016 at three uniform global resolutions of 13-km (c768), 6-km (c1536) and 3-km (c3072) with 72 vertical levels up to 0.01mb. The model physics use the Grell-Freitas scale-aware convection scheme to dynamically reduce the role of parameterized deep convection as resolved scale processes in the model take over at higher resolutions. We will include high-resolution global emissions and fluxes of aerosols and carbon downscaled from recent satellite observations. We will compare these simulations with reanalyses and observations, focusing on rainfall, clouds and radiative forcing at hourly to monthly timescales. We will closely examine the probability distribution of precipitation intensities and radiative properties of clouds on a daily time scale. In addition, we will focus on extreme events, in particular the diurnal cycle of convection over the US and the frequency and physical nature of organized convection and heavy rain events across the globe.

Putman, William↗

Evidence of chaotic pattern in solar flux through a reproducible sequence of period-doubling-type bifurcations

Presented here is a preliminary study of the limits to solar flux intensity prediction, and of whether the general lack of predictability in the solar flux arises from the nonlinear chaotic nature of the Sun's physical activity. Statistical analysis of a chaotic signal can extract only its most gross features, and detailed physical models fail, since even the simplest equations of motion for a nonlinear system can exhibit chaotic behavior. A recent theory by Feigenbaum suggests that nonlinear systems that can be led into chaotic behavior through a sequence of period-doubling bifurcations will exhibit a universal behavior. As the control parameter is increased, the bifurcation points occur in such a way that a proper ratio of these will approach the universal Feigenbaum number. Experimental evidence supporting the applicability of the Feigenbaum scenario to solar flux data is sparse. However, given the hypothesis that the Sun's convection zones are similar to a Rayleigh-Bernard mechanism, we can learn a great deal from the remarkable agreement observed between the prediction by theory (period doubling - a universal route to chaos) and the amplitude decrease of the signal's regular subharmonics. The authors show that period-doubling-type bifurcation is a possible route to a chaotic pattern of solar flux that is distinguishable from the logarithm of its power spectral density. This conclusion is the first positive step toward a reformulation of solar flux by a nonlinear chaotic approach. The ultimate goal of this research is to be able to predict an estimate of the upper and lower bounds for solar flux within its predictable zones. Naturally, it is an important task to identify the time horizons beyond which predictability becomes incompatible with computability.

Ashrafi, S.↗

Evidence of chaotic pattern in solar flux through a reproducible sequence of period-doubling-type bifurcations

A preliminary study of the limits to solar flux intensity prediction, and of whether the general lack of predictability in the solar flux arises from the nonlinear chaotic nature of the Sun's physical activity is presented. Statistical analysis of a chaotic signal can extract only its most gross features, and detailed physical models fail, since even the simplest equations of motion for a nonlinear system can exhibit chaotic behavior. A recent theory by Feigenbaum suggests that nonlinear systems that can be led into chaotic behavior through a sequence of period-doubling bifurcations will exhibit a universal behavior. As the control parameter is increased, the bifurcation points occur in such a way that a proper ratio of these will approach the universal Feigenbaum number. Experimental evidence supporting the applicability of the Feigenbaum scenario to solar flux data is sparse. However, given the hypothesis that the Sun's convection zones are similar to a Rayleigh-Bernard mechanism, we can learn a great deal from the remarkable agreement observed between the prediction by theory (period doubling - a universal route to chaos) and the amplitude decrease of the signal's regular subharmonics. It is shown that period-doubling-type bifurcation is a possible route to a chaotic pattern of solar flux that is distinguishable from the logarithm of its power spectral density. This conclusion is the first positive step toward a reformulation of solar flux by a nonlinear chaotic approach. The ultimate goal of this research is to be able to predict an estimate of the upper and lower bounds for solar flux within its predictable zones. Naturally, it is an important task to identify the time horizons beyond which predictability becomes incompatible with computability.

Ashrafi, S.↗

A Flexible Method for Producing F.E.M. Analysis of Bone Using Open-Source Software

This project, performed in support of the NASA GRC Space Academy summer program, sought to develop an open-source workflow methodology that segmented medical image data, created a 3D model from the segmented data, and prepared the model for finite-element analysis. In an initial step, a technological survey evaluated the performance of various existing open-source software that claim to perform these tasks. However, the survey concluded that no single software exhibited the wide array of functionality required for the potential NASA application in the area of bone, muscle and bio fluidic studies. As a result, development of a series of Python scripts provided the bridging mechanism to address the shortcomings of the available open source tools. The implementation of the VTK library provided the most quick and effective means of segmenting regions of interest from the medical images; it allowed for the export of a 3D model by using the marching cubes algorithm to build a surface mesh. To facilitate the development of the model domain from this extracted information required a surface mesh to be processed in the open-source software packages Blender and Gmsh. The Preview program of the FEBio suite proved to be sufficient for volume filling the model with an unstructured mesh and preparing boundaries specifications for finite element analysis. To fully allow FEM modeling, an in house developed Python script allowed assignment of material properties on an element by element basis by performing a weighted interpolation of voxel intensity of the parent medical image correlated to published information of image intensity to material properties, such as ash density. A graphical user interface combined the Python scripts and other software into a user friendly interface. The work using Python scripts provides a potential alternative to expensive commercial software and inadequate, limited open-source freeware programs for the creation of 3D computational models. More work will be needed to validate this approach in creating finite-element models.

gravitational physiology↗

On the Integration of Loudness Over Time for the Prediction of Single-Event Annoyance

Loudness is the quality of human perception that is most related to acoustic intensity and energy, however there is no agreed-upon way of integrating loudness over time for the prediction of noise-induced annoyance. Most noise metrics used today for aircraft certification and regulation employ the “Equal-Energy Hypothesis” (EEH) and sum the acoustical energy of one or more noise events over time to create a single metric value that represents the entire exposure. Using the EEH creates a natural tradeoff between the peak energy and the duration of a single noise event, the “hypothesis” being that this tradeoff optimally predicts annoyance in a wide variety of situations. This work proposes a strategy for integrating a loudness-like time series which is flexible in two ways: First, it includes a parameter b ∈ [0,1]. When b = 0, the metric will return the peak of the time series. At b = .5, the metric will behave in accordance with the EEH. At b = 1, the metric will penalize the duration of the sound more than the EEH would. Second, transformations are given so that the strategy can be computed from, or generate quantities in units analogous to, decibels (or phon), physical units (acoustic pressure/power), or perceptually-scaled units (sone). This approach is demonstrated on a dataset of annoyance responses to single events of UAV and road vehicle noise that is fit with an augmented linear regression. Analyses based on this integration of A-weighted level and the output of the “Zwicker” loudness model yield similar results: that subjects may have been slightly more sensitive to the durations of the events than the EEH would suppose, but that the EEH cannot be disproven using these data. The time-integrated metrics outperform both time-averaged and centile-based metrics.

Psychoacoustics↗

On the Integration of Loudness Over Time for the Prediction of Single-Event Annoyance

Loudness is the quality of human perception that is most related to acoustic intensity and energy, however there is no agreed-upon way of integrating loudness over time for the prediction of noise-induced annoyance. Most noise metrics used today for aircraft certification and regulation employ the “Equal-Energy Hypothesis” (EEH) and sum the acoustical energy of one or more noise events over time to create a single metric value that represents the entire exposure. Using the EEH creates a natural tradeoff between the peak energy and the duration of a single noise event, the “hypothesis” being that this tradeoff optimally predicts annoyance in a wide variety of situations. This work proposes a strategy for integrating a loudness-like time series which is flexible in two ways: First, it includes a parameter b ∈ [0,1]. When b = 0, the metric will return the peak of the time series. At b = .5, the metric will behave in accordance with the EEH. At b = 1, the metric will penalize the duration of the sound more than the EEH would. Second, transformations are given so that the strategy can be computed from, or generate quantities in units analogous to, decibels (or phon), physical units (acoustic pressure/power), or perceptually-scaled units (sone). This approach is demonstrated on a dataset of annoyance responses to single events of UAV and road vehicle noise that is fit with an augmented linear regression. Analyses based on this integration of A-weighted level and the output of the “Zwicker” loudness model yield similar results: that subjects may have been slightly more sensitive to the durations of the events than the EEH would suppose, but that the EEH cannot be disproven using these data. The time-integrated metrics outperform both time-averaged and centile-based metrics.

Psychoacoustics↗

A Study of Heavy Precipitation Events in Taiwan During 10-13 August, 1994: Mesoscale Model Simulations - Part 2

Several heavy precipitation episodes occurred over Taiwan from August 10 to 13, 1994. Precipitation patterns and characteristics are quite different between the precipitation events that occurred from August 10 and I I and from August 12 and 13. In Part I (Chen et al. 2001), the environmental situation and precipitation characteristics are analyzed using the EC/TOGA data, ground-based radar data, surface rainfall patterns, surface wind data, and upper air soundings. In this study (Part II), the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to study the precipitation characteristics of these heavy precipitation events. Various physical processes (schemes) developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (i.e., cloud microphysics scheme, radiative transfer model, and land-soil-vegetation surface model) have recently implemented into the MM5. These physical packages are described in the paper, Two way interactive nested grids are used with horizontal resolutions of 45, 15 and 5 km. The model results indicated that Cloud physics, land surface and radiation processes generally do not change the location (horizontal distribution) of heavy precipitation. The Goddard 3-class ice scheme produced more rainfall than the 2-class scheme. The Goddard multi-broad-band radiative transfer model reduced precipitation compared to a one-broad band (emissivity) radiation model. The Goddard land-soil-vegetation surface model also reduce the rainfall compared to a simple surface model in which the surface temperature is computed from a Surface energy budget following the "force-re store" method. However, model runs including all Goddard physical processes enhanced precipitation significantly for both cases. The results from these runs are in better agreement with observations. Despite improved simulations using different physical schemes, there are still some deficiencies in the model simulations. Some potential problems are discussed. Sensitivity tests (removing either terrain or radiative processes) are performed to identify the physical processes that determine the precipitation patterns and characteristics for heavy rainfall events. These sensitivity tests indicated that terrain can play a major role in determining the exact location for both precipitation events. The terrain can also play a major role in determining the intensity of precipitation for both events. However, it has a large impact on one event but a smaller one on the other. The radiative processes are also important for determining, the precipitation patterns for one case but. not the other. The radiative processes can also effect the total rainfall for both cases to different extents.

Tao, Wei Kuo↗

Global Carbon Budget 2016

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere the global carbon budget is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1(sigma), reflecting the current capacity to characterize the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006-2015), EFF was 9.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, ELUC 1.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr,GATM 4.5+/-0.1 GtC/yr, SOCEAN 2.6+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND 3.1+/-0.9 GtC/yr. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9+/-0.5 GtC/yr, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8/yr that took place during 2006-2015.Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, GATM was 6.3+/-0.2 GtC/yr, SOCEAN was 3.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND was 1.9+/-0.9 GtC/yr. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006-2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4+/-0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2% (range of -1.0 to +1.8% ) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Nino conditions of 2015-2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565+/-55 GtC (2075+/-205 GtCO2) for 1870-2016, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set.

Quéré, Corinne Le↗

A Hybrid Line List for CH4 and Hot Methane Continuum

Molecular line lists (a catalogue of transition frequencies and line strengths) are important for modelling absorption and emission processes in atmospheres of different astronomical objects, such as cool stars and exoplanets. In order to be applicable for high temperatures, line lists for molecules like methane must contain billions of transitions, which makes their direct (line-by-line) application in radiative transfer calculations impracticable. Here we suggest a new, hybrid line list format to mitigate this problem, based on the idea of temperature-dependent absorption continuum. Methods. The line list is partitioned into a large set of relatively weak lines and a small set of important, stronger lines. The weaker lines are then used either to construct a temperature-dependent (but pressure-independent) set of intensity cross sections or are blended into a greatly reduced set of super-lines. The strong lines are kept in the form of temperature independent Einstein A coefficients. Results. A line list for methane is constructed as a combination of 17 million strong absorption lines relative to the reference absorption spectra and a background methane continuum in two temperature-dependent forms, of cross sections and super-lines. This approach eases the use of large high temperature line lists significantly as the computationally expensive calculation of pressure dependent profiles only need to be performed for a relatively small number of lines. Both the line list and cross sections were generated using a new 34 billion methane line list (34 to10), which extends the 10to10 line list to higher temperatures (up to 2000 K). The new hybrid scheme can be applied to any large line lists containing billions of transitions. We recommend to use super-lines generated on a high resolution grid based on resolving power R = 1,000,000 to model the molecular continuum as a more flexible alternative to the temperature dependent cross sections.

Line Profiles↗

Investigation of HZETRN 2010 as a Tool for Single Event Effect Qualification of Avionics Systems

NASA's future missions are focused on deep space for human exploration that do not provide a simple emergency return to Earth. In addition, the deep space environment contains a constant background Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) radiation exposure, as well as periodic Solar Particle Events (SPEs) that can produce intense amounts of radiation in a short amount of time. Given these conditions, it is important that the avionics systems for deep space human missions are not susceptible to Single Event Effects (SEE) that can occur from radiation interactions with electronic components. The typical process to minimizing SEE effects is through using heritage hardware and extensive testing programs that are very costly. Previous work by Koontz, et al. [1] utilized an analysis-based method for investigating electronic component susceptibility. In their paper, FLUKA, a Monte Carlo transport code, was used to calculate SEE and single event upset (SEU) rates. This code was then validated against in-flight data. In addition, CREME-96, a deterministic code, was also compared with FLUKA and in-flight data. However, FLUKA has a long run-time (on the order of days), and CREME-96 has not been updated in several years. This paper will investigate the use of HZETRN 2010, a deterministic transport code developed at NASA Langley Research Center, as another tool that can be used to analyze SEE and SEU rates. The benefits to using HZETRN over FLUKA and CREME-96 are that it has a very fast run time (on the order of minutes) and has been shown to be of similar accuracy as other deterministic and Monte Carlo codes when considering dose [2, 3, 4]. The 2010 version of HZETRN has updated its treatment of secondary neutrons and thus has improved its accuracy over previous versions. In this paper, the Linear Energy Transfer (LET) spectra are of interest rather than the total ionizing dose. Therefore, the LET spectra output from HZETRN 2010 will be compared with the FLUKA and in-flight data to validate HZETRN 2010 as a computational tool for SEE qualification by analysis. Furthermore, extrapolation of these data to interplanetary environments at 1 AU will be investigated to determine whether HZETRN 2010 can be used successfully and confidently for deep space mission analyses.

Rojdev, Kristina↗

The Pursuit of K: Reflections on the Current State-of-the-Art in Stress Intensity Factor Solutions for Practical Aerospace Applications

The elastic stress intensity factor (SIF, commonly denoted as K) is the foundation of practical fracture mechanics (FM) analysis for aircraft structures. This single parameter describes the first-order effects of stress magnitude and distribution as well as the geometry of both structure/component and crack. Hence, the calculation of K is often the most significant step in fatigue analysis based on FM. This presentation will provide several reflections on the current state-of-the-art in SIF solution methods used for practical aerospace applications, including a brief historical perspective, descriptions of some recent and ongoing advances, and comments on some remaining challenges. Newman and Raju made significant early contributions to practical structural analysis by developing closed-form SIF equations for surface and corner cracks in simplified geometries, often based on empirical fits of finite element (FE) solutions. Those solutions (and others like them) were sometimes revised as new analyses were conducted or limitations discovered. The foundational solutions have exhibited striking longevity, despite the relatively "coarse" FE models employed many decades ago. However, in recent years, the accumulation of different generations of solutions for the same nominal geometry has led to some confusion (which solution is correct?), and steady increases in computational capabilities have facilitated the discovery of inaccuracies in some (not all!) of the legacy solutions. Some examples of problems and solutions are presented and discussed, including the challenge of maintaining consistency with legacy design applications. As computational power has increased, the prospect of calculating large numbers of SIF solutions for specific complex geometries with advanced numerical methods has grown more attractive. Fawaz and Andersson, for example, have been generating literally millions of new SIF solutions for different combinations of multiple cracks under simplified loading schemes using p-version FE methods. These data are invaluable, but questions remain about their practical use, because the tabular databases of key results needed to support practical life analysis can occupy gigabytes of storage for only a few classes of geometries. The prospect of using such advanced numerical methods to calculate in real time only those K solutions actually needed to support a specific crack growth analysis is also tempting, but the stark reality is that the computational cost is still so high that the approach is not practical except for specific, critical application problems. Some thoughts are offered about alternative paradigms. Compounding approaches are some of the earliest building blocks of SIF development for more complex geometries. These approaches are especially attractive because of their very low computational cost and their conceptual robustness; they are, in some ways, an intriguing contrast and complement to the brute-force numerical methods. In recent years, researchers at NRC-Canada have published remarkable results showing how compounding approaches can be used to generate accurate solutions for very difficult problems. Examples are provided of some successes--and some limitations--using this approach. These closed-form, tabulated numerical, and compounding approaches have typically been used for simple remote loading with simple load paths to the crack. However, many significant cracks occur in complex stress gradient fields. This is a job for weight function (WF) methods, where the arbitrary stress distribution on the crack plane in the corresponding uncracked body (typically determined using FE methods) is used to determine K. Several significant recent advances in WF methods and solutions are highlighted here. Fueled by advanced 3D numerical methods, many new solutions have been generated for classic geometries such as surface and corner cracks with wide ranges of geometrical validity. A new WF formulation has also be developed for part-through cracks considering the arbitrary stress gradients in all directions in the crack plane (so-called bivariant solutions). Basic WF methods have recently been combined with analytical expressions for crack plane stresses to develop a large family of accurate SIF solutions for corner, surface, and through cracks at internal or external notches with very wide ranges of shapes, sizes, acuities, and offsets. Finally, WF solutions are much faster than FE or boundary element solutions, but can still be much slower than simple closed-form solutions, especially for bivariant solutions that can require 2D numerical integration. Novel pre-integration and dynamic tabular methods have been developed that substantially increase the speed of these advanced WF solutions. The practical utility of advanced SIF methods, including both WF and direct numerical methods, is greatly enhanced if the FM life analysis can be directly and efficiently linked with digital models of the actual structure or component (e.g., FE models for stress analysis). Two recent advances of this type will be described. One approach directly interfaces the FM life analysis with the FE model of the uncracked component (including stress results). Through a powerful graphical user interface, simplified FM life models can be constructed (and visualized) directly on the component model, with the computer collecting the geometry and stress gradient information needed for the life calculation. An even more powerful paradigm uses expert logic to automatically build an optimum simple fracture model at any and every desired location in the component model, perform the life calculation, and even generate fatigue crack growth life contour maps, all with minimal user intervention. This paradigm has also been extended to the automatic calculation of fracture risk, considering uncertainty or variability in key input parameters such as initial crack size or location. Another new integrated approach links the engineering life analysis, the component model, and a 3D numerical fracture analysis built with the same component model to generate a table of SIF values at a specific location that can then be employed efficiently to perform the life calculation. Some attention must be given to verification and validation (V&V) issues and challenges: how good are these SIF solutions, how good is good enough, and does anyone believe the life answer? It is important to think critically about the different sources of error or uncertainty and to perform V&V in a hierarchal, building-block manner. Some accuracy issues for SIF solutions, for example, may actually involve independent material behavior issues, such as constraint loss effects for crack fronts near component surfaces, and can be a source of confusion. Recommendations are proposed for improved V&V approaches. This presentation will briefly but critically survey the range of issues and advances mentioned above, with a particular view towards assembling an integrated approach that combines different methods to create practical tools for real-world design and analysis problems. Examples will be selectively drawn from the recent literature, from recent enhancements in the NASGRO and DARWIN computer codes, and from previously unpublished research

CraigMcClung, R.↗

Quantitative Measurements of CH* Concentration in Normal Gravity and Microgravity Coflow Laminar Diffusion Flames

With the conclusion of the SLICE campaign aboard the ISS in 2012, a large amount of data was made available for the analysis of the effect of microgravity on laminar coflow diffusion flames. Previous work focused on the study of sooty flames in microgravity as well as the ability of numerical models to predict its formation in a simplified buoyancy-free environment. The current work shifts the investigation to soot-free flames, putting an emphasis on the chemiluminescence emission from electronically excited CH (CH*). This radical species is of significant interest in combustion studies: it has been shown that the CH* spatial distribution is indicative of the flame front position and, given the relatively simple diagnostic involved with its measurement, several works have been done trying to understand the ability of CH* chemiluminescence to predict the total and local flame heat release rate. In this work, a subset of the SLICE nitrogen-diluted methane flames has been considered, and the effect of fuel and coflow velocity on CH* concentration is discussed and compared with both normal gravity results and numerical simulations. Experimentally, the spectral characterization of the DSLR color camera used to acquire the flame images allowed the signal collected by the blue channel to be considered representative of the CH* emission centered around 431 nm. Due to the axisymmetric flame structure, an Abel deconvolution of the line-of-sight chemiluminescence was used to obtain the radial intensity profile and, thanks to an absolute light intensity calibration, a quantification of the CH* concentration was possible. Results show that, in microgravity, the maximum flame CH* concentration increases with the coflow velocity, but it is weakly dependent on the fuel velocity; normal gravity flames, if not lifted, tend to follow the same trend, albeit with different peak concentrations. Comparisons with numerical simulations display reasonably good agreement between measured and computed flame lengths and radii, and it is shown that the integrated CH* emission scales proportionally to the computed total heat release rate; the two-dimensional CH* spatial distribution, however, does not appear to be a good marker for the local heat release rate.

microgravity↗

Quantitative Measurements of Electronically Excited CH Concentration in Normal Gravity and Microgravity Coflow Laminar Diffusion Flames

With the conclusion of the SLICE campaign aboard the ISS in 2012, a large amount of data was made available for the analysis of the effect of microgravity on laminar coflow diffusion flames. Previous work focused on the study of sooty flames in microgravity as well as the ability of numerical models to predict its formation in a simplified buoyancy-free environment. The current work shifts the investigation to soot-free flames, putting an emphasis on the chemiluminescence emission from electronically excited CH (CH*). This radical species is of significant interest in combustion studies: it has been shown that the electronically excited CH spatial distribution is indicative of the flame front position and, given the relatively simple diagnostic involved with its measurement, several works have been done trying to understand the ability of electronically excited CH chemiluminescence to predict the total and local flame heat release rate. In this work, a subset of the SLICE nitrogen-diluted methane flames has been considered, and the effect of fuel and coflow velocity on electronically excited CH concentration is discussed and compared with both normal gravity results and numerical simulations. Experimentally, the spectral characterization of the DSLR color camera used to acquire the flame images allowed the signal collected by the blue channel to be considered representative of the electronically excited CH emission centered around 431 nm. Due to the axisymmetric flame structure, an Abel deconvolution of the line-of-sight chemiluminescence was used to obtain the radial intensity profile and, thanks to an absolute light intensity calibration, a quantification of the electronically excited CH concentration was possible. Results show that, in microgravity, the maximum flame electronically excited CH concentration increases with the coflow velocity, but it is weakly dependent on the fuel velocity; normal gravity flames, if not lifted, tend to follow the same trend, albeit with different peak concentrations. Comparisons with numerical simulations display reasonably good agreement between measured and computed flame lengths and radii, and it is shown that the integrated electronically excited CH emission scales proportionally to the computed total heat release rate; the two-dimensional electronically excited CH spatial distribution, however, does not appear to be a good marker for the local heat release rate.

chemiluminescence↗