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DOE OSTI2021

Constraining Physical Models at Gigabar Pressures

High-energy-density (HED) experiments in convergent geometry are able to test physical models at pressures beyond hundreds of millions of atmospheres. The measurements from these experiments are generally highly integrated and require unique analysis techniques to procure quantitative information. This work describes a methodology to constrain the physics in convergent HED experiments by adapting the methods common to many other fields of physics. As an example, a mechanical model of an imploding shell is constrained by data from a thin-shelled direct-drive exploding-pusher experiment on the OMEGA Laser System using Bayesian inference, resulting in the reconstruction of the shell dynamics and energy transfer during the implosion. The model is tested by analyzing synthetic data from a 1-D hydrodynamics code and is sampled using a Markov chain Monte Carlo to generate the posterior distributions of the model parameters. The goal of this work is to demonstrate a general methodology that can be used to draw conclusions from a wide variety of HED experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Gaussian processes for inferring parton distributions

The extraction of parton distribution functions (PDFs) from experimental or lattice QCD data is an ill-posed inverse problem, where regularization strongly impacts both systematic uncertainties and the reliability of the results. We study a framework based on Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) to reconstruct PDFs from lattice QCD matrix elements. Within a Bayesian framework, Gaussian processes serve as flexible priors that encode uncertainties, correlations, and constraints without imposing rigid functional forms. We investigate a wide range of kernel choices, mean functions, and hyperparameter treatments. We quantify information gained from the data using the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Synthetic data tests demonstrate the consistency and robustness of the method. Our study establishes GPR as a systematic and non-parametric approach to PDF reconstruction, offering controlled uncertainty estimates and reduced model bias in lattice QCD analyses.

hadronic spectroscopy↗

DOE OSTI2020

The changing mouse embryo transcriptome at whole tissue and single-cell resolution

During mammalian embryogenesis, differential gene expression gradually builds the identity and complexity of each tissue and organ system 1 . Here we systematically quantified mouse polyA-RNA from day 10.5 of embryonic development to birth, sampling 17 tissues and organs. The resulting developmental transcriptome is globally structured by dynamic cytodifferentiation, body-axis and cell-proliferation gene sets that were further characterized by the transcription factor motif codes of their promoters. We decomposed the tissue-level transcriptome using single-cell RNA-seq (sequencing of RNA reverse transcribed into cDNA) and found that neurogenesis and haematopoiesis dominate at both the gene and cellular levels, jointly accounting for one-third of differential gene expression and more than 40% of identified cell types. By integrating promoter sequence motifs with companion ENCODE epigenomic profiles, we identified a prominent promoter de-repression mechanism in neuronal expression clusters that was attributable to known and novel repressors. Focusing on the developing limb, single-cell RNA data identified 25 candidate cell types that included progenitor and differentiating states with computationally inferred lineage relationships. We extracted cell-type transcription factor networks and complementary sets of candidate enhancer elements by using single-cell RNA-seq to decompose integrative cis -element (IDEAS) models that were derived from whole-tissue epigenome chromatin data. These ENCODE reference data, computed network components and IDEAS chromatin segmentations are companion resources to the matching epigenomic developmental matrix, and are available for researchers to further mine and integrate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

In Situ Inference for Earth System Predictability

Focal Area: Focal Area 3: Insight gleaned from complex simulated data using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: An understanding of future evolution in precipitation extremes is critical to numerous DOE mission questions. Extreme events are by nature short time-scale events that are difficult to diagnose in available model data. Accurate modeling of extreme events necessarily requires high spatial resolution at the storm scale locally. However, the environment in which storms grow is dependent on global, remote, processes. These complex spatiotemporal relationships are impossible to diagnose at resolutions required to accurately model storms responsible for extreme precipitation. At exascale, climate simulations will produce results at fine enough resolution to investigate these relationships. However, the resulting data from these simulations will be far too large to save for post-simulation analysis. We advocate for fitting statistical models inside the simulations as they run, a context known as in situ, which will facilitate scientific investigations using the full fine-scale data stream. Figure 1 shows an example of the type of model we could consider, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial regression model. Precipitation extremes at each grid cell are modeled using extreme value distributions. Since extremes are rare, fitting models to individual grid cells can result in high variance and poor estimates. Instead, the model can be made more robust by smoothing the parameters of the extreme value model across space. Additionally, the parameters themselves can be functionally linked to other variables elsewhere in the simulation. Thus, we can use the fine-scale data to build more robust models for extremes that link extreme behavior to other climate patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A small core in Vesta inferred from Dawn’s observations

Vesta’s large-scale interior structure had previously been constrained primarily using the gravity and shape data from the Dawn mission. However, these data alone still allow a wide range of possibilities for the differentiation state of the body. The moment of inertia is arguably the most diagnostic parameter related to the radial density distribution of a planetary body, making it crucial for assessing the body’s state of internal differentiation. Determining the moment of inertia requires additional measurements of the amplitudes of small rotational motions, such as precession and nutation. Here we report an updated estimate of the moment of inertia of Vesta inferred from Dawn’s Doppler tracking via the Deep Space Network and onboard imaging data. The recovered value for Vesta’s normalized polar moment of inertia is $\overline{C}$/MR 2 = 0.4208 ± 0.0047 (where M is the mass of Vesta and R is the reference radius), which is only 6.6% lower than the homogeneous value of 0.4505. This value, combined with the gravity field and global shape, suggests that Vesta’s interior has limited density stratification beneath its howardite–eucrite–diogenite-dominated crust. We propose two possible origin scenarios that are consistent with the observed constraints. In the first scenario, Vesta’s interior did not undergo full differentiation due to late accretion. In the second scenario, Vesta originated as an impact remnant of a larger differentiated body re-accreted with non-chondritic bulk composition produced from a catastrophic impact. Vesta did not experience complete differentiation in either scenario, suggesting that its current state reflects a complex interplay between its accretion timing, thermal evolution, redistribution of 26 Al bearing melt and/or impact processes.

CNEOS 2014-01-08 bolide↗

DOE OSTI2021

B-PINNs: Bayesian Physics-informal Neural Networks for Forward and Inverse PDE Problems with Noisy Data

We propose a Bayesian physics-informed neural network (B-PINN) to solve both forward and inverse nonlinear problems described by partial differential equations (PDEs) and noisy data. In this Bayesian framework, the Bayesian neural network (BNN) combined with a PINN for PDEs serves as the prior while the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) or the variational inference (VI) could serve as an estimator of the posterior. B-PINNs make use of both physical laws and scattered noisy measurements to provide predictions and quantify the aleatoric uncertainty arising from the noisy data in the Bayesian framework. Compared with PINNs, in addition to uncertainty quantification, B-PINNs obtain more accurate predictions in scenarios with large noise due to their capability of avoiding overfitting. We conduct a systematic comparison between the two different approaches for the B-PINNs posterior estimation (i.e., HMC or VI), along with dropout used for quantifying uncertainty in deep neural networks. Our experiments show that HMC is more suitable than VI with mean field Gaussian approximation for the B-PINNs posterior estimation, while dropout employed in PINNs can hardly provide accurate predictions with reasonable uncertainty. Finally, we replace the BNN in the prior with a truncated Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansion combined with HMC or a deep normalizing flow (DNF) model as posterior estimators. The KL is as accurate as BNN and much faster but this framework cannot be easily extended to high-dimensional problems unlike the BNN based framework.

Non linear PDEs, Noisy data, Bysian physics inform↗

DOE OSTI2021

The growth of density perturbations in the last ~10 billion years from tomographic large-scale structure data

In order to investigate the origin of the ongoing tension between the amplitude of matter fluctuations measured by weak lensing experiments at low redshifts and the value inferred from the cosmic microwave background anisotropies, we reconstruct the evolution of this amplitude from z ~ 2 using existing large-scale structure data. To do so, we decouple the linear growth of density inhomogeneities from the background expansion, and constrain its redshift dependence making use of a combination of 6 different data sets, including cosmic shear, galaxy clustering and CMB lensing. We analyze these data under a consistent harmonic-space angular power spectrum-based pipeline. We show that current data constrain the amplitude of fluctuations mostly in the range 0.2 < z < 0.7, where it is lower than predicted by . This difference is mostly driven by current cosmic shear data, although the growth histories reconstructed from different data combinations are consistent with each other, and we find no evidence of systematic deviations in any particular experiment. In spite of the tension with , the data are well-described by the model, albeit with a lower value of S 8 ≡ σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.5 . As part of our analysis, we find constraints on this parameter of S 8 = 0.7781 ± 0.0094 (68% confidence level), reaching almost percent-level errors comparable with CMB measurements, and 3.4σ away from the value found by .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Inferring three-nucleon couplings from multi-messenger neutron-star observations

Understanding the interactions between nucleons in dense matter is an important challenge in theoretical physics. Effective field theories have emerged as the dominant approach to address this problem at low energies, with many successful applications to the structure of nuclei and the properties of dense nucleonic matter. However, how far into the interior of neutron stars these interactions can describe dense matter is an open question. Here, we develop a framework that enables the inference of three-nucleon couplings in dense matter directly from astrophysical neutron star observations. We apply this formalism to the LIGO/Virgo gravitational-wave event GW170817 and the X-ray measurements from NASA’s Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer and establish direct constraints for the couplings that govern three-nucleon interactions in chiral effective field theory. Furthermore, we demonstrate how next-generation observations of a population of neutron star mergers can offer stringent constraints on three-nucleon couplings, potentially at a level comparable to those from laboratory data. Our work directly connects the microscopic couplings in quantum field theories to macroscopic observations of neutron stars, providing a way to test the consistency between low-energy couplings inferred from terrestrial and astrophysical data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sequential Bayesian inference of transition rates in the hidden Markov model for multi-state system degradation

The more easily available system performance data and advances in data analytics have provided us with opportunities to optimize maintenance programs for engineered systems, for example nuclear power plants. One key task in maintenance optimization is to obtain an accurate model for system degradation. Here, in this research, we propose a Bayesian method to address this problem. Noting that systems usually exhibit multiple states and that the actual state of a system usually is not directly observable, in the method we first model the system degradation process and the observation process based on a hidden Markov model. Then we develop a sequential Bayesian inference algorithm based on importance sampling and the forward algorithm to infer the posterior distributions of the transition rates in the hidden Markov model based on available observations. The proposed Bayesian method allows us to take advantage of evidence from multiple sources, and also allows us to perform Bayesian inference sequentially, without the need to use the entire history of observations every time new observations are collected. We demonstrate the proposed method using both synthetic data for a nuclear power plant feedwater pump and realistic data for a nuclear power plant chemistry analytical device.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hydrodynamic and Radiographic Toolbox (HART)

With a multi-lab and university team, we propose to develop new methods for a Hydrodynamic and Radiographic Toolbox (HART) that will enable a fuller and more extensive use of experimental radiographic data towards better characterizing and reducing uncertainties in predictive modeling of weapons performance. We will achieve this by leveraging recent developments in areas of computational imaging, statistical and machine learning, and reduced order modeling of hydrodynamics. In terms of software practices, by partnering with XCP (RISTRA Project) we will conform to recent XCP standards that are inline with modern software practices and standards and ensure compatibility and ease of inter-operability with existing codes. Three new activities under this proposal include (a) the development and use of deep learning-based surrogates to accelerate reconstruction and variational inference of density fields from radiographs of hydrotests, (b) a model-data fusion strategy that couples deep learning-based density reconstructions with fast hydrodynamics simulators to better constrain the reconstruction, and (c) a method for treating asymmetries using techniques adopted from limited view tomography. All three new activities will be based on improved treatment of scatter, noise, beam spot movement, detector blur, and flat fielding in the forward model, and a use of sophisticated priors to aid in the re construction. The improvements to the forward model and improved algorithmic design of the reconstruction when complete will be contained in the iterative reconstruction code SHIVA—a code project that we have recently initiated. The many ways in which machine learning can be used in the reconstruction work will be contained in a code HERMES that has been initiated with DTRA support. For example, the significant levels of acceleration that will likely be achieved by the use of machine learning techniques will permit us (and are required) to quantify uncertainties in density retrievals. Next, the two-way coupling between density reconstruction and model-based simulation of the hydrodynamics will be contained in code EREBUS, and will permit a fuller realization of the potential of the data to constrain the hydrodynamic model and better address issues related to asymmetries in the problem. Finally, we anticipate that the better consistency with physics achieved in our reconstructions will allow them to be used by X-Division more so than today.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian inference for plasmonic nanometrology

Here, we introduce a Bayesian method for the characterization of plasmonic nanoparticles, which is applicable to both near- and far-field problems. Designed to combine data generated from any photon-plasmon interaction experiment with physically motivated theoretical models, our approach leverages state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling techniques and returns parameter estimates on nanometric scales. Simulated spectral data sets, describing resonant scattering of photons from ellipsoidal and toroidal nanoparticles, are explored as concrete examples of our approach, with the resulting Bayesian estimates showing excellent agreement with the ground truth, even under conditions of high statistical noise. By incorporating Bayes factors into the method as well, we reveal how model selection can determine which one of competing geometric shapes better explains the observed data. Our comprehensive nanometrology procedure can be tailored to a variety of light-particle interaction models, and its reliance on Bayesian inference furnishes automatic uncertainty quantification. In addition to applicability to a host of plasmonic configurations such as nanoparticle dimers, trimers, and array studies, it is proposed that the presented analysis can be extended to the quantum regime, where nonclassical photon statistics may provide additional insight for inference of scatterer properties.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic modeling and prediction of out-of-plane unidirectional composite lamina properties

Computational simulation provides an efficient means to predict the behavior of customized hybrid material configurations using validated, physics-based models. One limitation to this approach is the quality and quantity of available data to characterize the many constituent input properties. Therefore, a systematic approach to identify the most influential parameters on the hybrid behavior and quantify the corresponding uncertainty in predictive capabilities is required. Here, an approach using Bayesian multimodel inference and imprecise global sensitivity analysis is presented to investigate the effects of sparse constituent data on the prediction of composite material properties. The methodology allows the identification, using quantified uncertainties, of the most influential constituent material parameters for specified homogenized properties. This sensitivity analysis further enables a dimension reduction when assessing the influence of uncertainties on material properties and can be used to inform testing programs of the constituent properties that require additional testing/data collection in order to minimize uncertainty in macro-scale composite properties. The methodology is specifically demonstrated on the prediction and sensitivity analysis of out-of-plane mechanical properties of a unidirectional lamina.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Constraining the Milky Way Mass Profile with Phase-space Distribution of Satellite Galaxies

We estimate the Milky Way (MW) halo properties using satellite kinematic data including the latest measurements from Gaia DR2. With a simulation-based 6D phase-space distribution function (DF) of satellite kinematics, we can infer halo properties efficiently and without bias, and handle the selection function and measurement errors rigorously in the Bayesian framework. Applying our DF from the EAGLE simulation to 28 satellites, we obtain an MW halo mass of $M={1.23}_{-0.18}^{+0.21}\times {10}^{12}{M}_{\odot }$ and a concentration of $c={9.4}_{-2.1}^{+2.8}$ with the prior based on the M–c relation. The inferred mass profile is consistent with previous measurements but with better precision and reliability due to the improved methodology and data. Potential improvement is illustrated by combining satellite data and stellar rotation curves. Using our EAGLE DF and best-fit MW potential, we provide much more precise estimates of the kinematics for those satellites with uncertain measurements. Compared to the EAGLE DF, which matches the observed satellite kinematics very well, the DF from the semi-analytical model based on the dark-matter-only simulation Millennium II (SAM-MII) over-represents satellites with small radii and velocities. We attribute this difference to less disruption of satellites with small pericenter distances in the SAM-MII simulation. Finally, by varying the disruption rate of such satellites in this simulation, we estimate a ~5% scatter in the inferred MW halo mass among hydrodynamics-based simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Preliminary NoMAD Results of the MUSIC Experiment

The Measurement of Uranium Subcritical and Critical (MUSiC) experiment was carried out from December 2020 through April 2021 at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC). This measurement campaign featured bare configurations of the Rocky Flats highly-enriched uranium (HEU) shells, with each configuration having different numbers of these shells. The goal of the experiment was to test multiple neutron multiplicity detectors and measurement methods for a large range of neutron multiplication values, to see when the combination of detectors and methods break down as the configurations reach the delayed supercritical window. Adding subcritical integral benchmarks gives additional validation to nuclear data. These benchmarks provide additional parameters against which to validate the data. While critical benchmarks have just a single value, $K_{eff}$ , subcritical benchmarks can be used to infer multiple parameters. As an example, recent subcritical benchmarks utilizing the Hage-Cifarelli formalism have three quantities of interest ($R_{1}$, $R_{2}$, and $M_{L}$). This gives nuclear data evaluators additional data to use when performing their evaluations, and allows for these benchmarks to be useful for additional types of nuclear data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Portable Acceleration of CMS Computing Workflows with Coprocessors as a Service

Computing demands for large scientific experiments, such as the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC, will increase dramatically in the next decades. To complement the future performance increases of software running on central processing units (CPUs), explorations of coprocessor usage in data processing hold great potential and interest. Coprocessors are a class of computer processors that supplement CPUs, often improving the execution of certain functions due to architectural design choices. We explore the approach of Services for Optimized Network Inference on Coprocessors (SONIC) and study the deployment of this as-a-service approach in large-scale data processing. In the studies, we take a data processing workflow of the CMS experiment and run the main workflow on CPUs, while offloading several machine learning (ML) inference tasks onto either remote or local coprocessors, specifically graphics processing units (GPUs). With experiments performed at Google Cloud, the Purdue Tier-2 computing center, and combinations of the two, we demonstrate the acceleration of these ML algorithms individually on coprocessors and the corresponding throughput improvement for the entire workflow. This approach can be easily generalized to different types of coprocessors and deployed on local CPUs without decreasing the throughput performance. We emphasize that the SONIC approach enables high coprocessor usage and enables the portability to run workflows on different types of coprocessors.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hardware-Based Randomized Encoding for Sensor Authentication in Power Grid SCADA Systems

Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems are utilized extensively in critical power grid infrastructures. Modern SCADA systems have been proven to be susceptible to cyber-security attacks and require improved security primitives in order to prevent unwanted influence from an adversarial party. One section of weakness in the SCADA system is the integrity of field level sensors providing essential data for control decisions at a master station. In this paper we propose a lightweight hardware scheme providing inferred authentication for SCADA sensors by combining an analog to digital converter and a permutation generator as a single integrated circuit. Through this method we encode critical sensor data at the time of sensing, so that unencoded data is never stored in memory, increasing the difficulty of software attacks. We show through experimentation how our design stops both software and hardware false data injection attacks occurring at the field level of SCADA systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

DeepDiagnostics: A Software Package for Streamlined Posterior Evaluation

Automated prediction techniques like simulation-based inference (SBI) are important tasks for science experiments that produce large amounts of complex, raw data. However, their development remains in its early stages because the uncertainties of these techniques lack sufficient trustworthiness and interpretability. Packages for SBI provide a growing set of diagnostics; however, the software requirements are substantial, as they are tied to the inference technology itself, and the APIs lack adaptability. We introduce the DeepDiagnostics package for diagnosing posteriors from analytic likelihood-based methods and SBI methods, such as neural posterior estimation. DeepDiagnostics produces a comprehensive set of high-quality visualizations and metrics in a highly accessible, easy-to-use, and flexible package. We address all of these goals by providing a command-line inference tool and a Python API that is controlled through a configuration file. The package includes common diagnostics, such as parity plots, corner (covariance) plots, simulation-based calibration (SBC) diagnostics (including posterior coverage and rank histograms), Lemos et al. s PQMass and TARP, Masserano et al. s WALDO, Linhart et al. s LC2ST, as well as credible region diagnostics developed by our group.

Voetberg, Maggie [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2022

Retracted: Monitoring Hatchery Broodstock Composition and Genetic Variation of Spring/Summer Chinook Salmon in the Columbia River Basin with Multigeneration Pedigrees

Abstract Hatchery production of Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in the Columbia River basin comprises most of the anadromous salmonid production in this region. Hatchery facilities and programs serve to mitigate for impacts to salmonids due to the construction and operation of hydropower dams and habitat impacts from development in addition to the conservation and restoration of natural populations. A genetic method referred to as parentage-based tagging (PBT) enables highly reliable detection of hatchery-origin fish and inference of multigeneration pedigrees. This study compiles 11 years of PBT data from nearly 125,000 interior stream-type Chinook Salmon from 24 spawning hatcheries located in tributaries of the mid- and upper Columbia River as well as the Salmon, Clearwater, and Grande Ronde River subbasins. Multigenerational pedigrees allowed investigation of the proportion of natural- and hatchery-origin broodstock (pNOB and pHOB, respectively) for each hatchery and enumeration of the scale of production between segregated and integrated programs. We then compared how pHOB and the scale of production influenced the number of stray fish observed, genetic diversity, relatedness, and age-class compositions within broodstocks. Over 91.0% of hatchery broodstock could be assigned back to their parents, and there was an overall rate of less than 1.0% of broodstock that were unintentionally incorporated into nonnatal hatchery programs. We evaluated 14 segregated programs with 0.0–10.0% pNOB, 7 intermediate programs (10.1–50.0% pNOB), and 3 integrated programs (>50.0% pNOB). There was no correlation between the scale of production or pNOB with the level of genetic diversity, but as production size increased, so did the effective number of breeders. This study demonstrates the utility of PBT as a monitoring tool for hatchery broodstocks, and results suggest that segregated and integrated programs have tradeoffs that generally align with their intended broodstock management purpose of providing fish for harvest and/or fish for supplementation or reintroduction.

Horn, Rebekah L.↗