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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Active Learning of Microgrid Frequency Dynamics Using Neural Ordinary Differential Equations

Accurate frequency modelling of inverter‐based resource (IBR)‐dominated power systems is crucial for ensuring stable, reliable and resilient operations, particularly given their inherent low‐inertia characteristics and fast dynamics that traditional swing equation‐based models inadequately capture. This paper explores neural ordinary differential equations (Neural ODEs) as a computationally efficient, data‐driven framework for modelling power system frequency dynamics, specifically within microgrids integrating high penetrations of distributed energy resources (DERs). The developed neural ODEs framework incorporates a neural network architecture designed to capture input dynamics. By actively perturbing the system with a known signal, the Python‐based neural ODEs framework was trained using measured system states and inputs, without the need for detailed system information. The framework, tested on a model of the Cordova, AK, microgrid, achieved a goodness of fit ranging from 60% to 99% across different state variables and maintained a mean square error in the 10 -6 p.u. range under square and step excitation signals. The proposed approach demonstrated robustness to measurement noise and initial condition variations while maintaining low computational complexity suitable for real‐time power system control applications. Furthermore, transfer learning enabled the neural ODEs model to adapt to the following changes in system topology or generator dispatch, highlighting its effectiveness for dynamic microgrids with frequently evolving configurations and diverse DERs.

Aryal, Tara [South Dakota State Univ., Brookings, ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dataset of Generative AI Workload Power Profiles

This dataset provides a collection of high-resolution (5/10 Hz or every 0.2/0.1 seconds) power consumption profiles for generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) workloads executed on NLR's High Performance Computing (HPC) platform Kestrel. The dataset also includes examples of representative whole-facility power profiles generated using a bottom-up, event-driven, data center energy model . This dataset is designed to support research in energy modeling, infrastructure planning, energy system integration, and sustainability analysis for AI-driven computing systems. The dataset captures time-resolved electrical power measurements across a diverse set of configurations, including variations in job type (inference vs. training), workload (LLM vs. image generation), datasets, and number of compute nodes. Power traces are provided in a standardized format and include both raw/instantaneous and aggregated files. Each profile is accompanied by metadata describing workload parameters, enabling reproducibility and cross-study comparison. The dataset is intended for use in applications such as data center infrastructure planning, energy modeling, demand response and grid impact studies, and development and validation of system-level simulation tools. By making these workload-specific power profiles publicly available, this dataset aims to address the current lack of open, empirical energy data for generative AI systems and to facilitate transparent, reproducible research on the energy and environmental impacts of large-scale AI deployment. If you use this dataset, please cite the associated publication: Vercellino et al., “Measurement of Generative AI Workload Power Profiles for Whole-Facility Data Center Infrastructure Planning,” arXiv:2604.07345 (2026).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Scientific machine learning for closure models in multiscale problems: A review

Here, closure problems are omnipresent when simulating multiscale systems, where some quantities and processes cannot be fully prescribed despite their effects on the simulation's accuracy. Recently, scientific machine learning approaches have been proposed as a way to tackle the closure problem, combining traditional (physics-based) modeling with data-driven (machine-learned) techniques, typically through enriching differential equations with neural networks. This paper reviews the different reduced model forms, distinguished by the degree to which they include known physics, and the different objectives of a priori and a posteriori learning. The importance of adhering to physical laws (such as symmetries and conservation laws) in choosing the reduced model form and choosing the learning method is discussed. The effect of spatial and temporal discretization and recent trends toward discretization-invariant models are reviewed. In addition, we make the connections between closure problems and several other research disciplines: inverse problems, Mori-Zwanzig theory, and multi-fidelity methods. In conclusion, much progress has been made with scientific machine learning approaches for solving closure problems, but many challenges remain. In particular, the generalizability and interpretability of learned models is a major issue that needs to be addressed further.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Frequency Nadir Constrained Unit Commitment for High Renewable Penetration Island Power Systems

The process of energy decarbonization in island power systems is accelerated due to the swift integration of inverter-based renewable energy resources (IBRs). The unique features of such systems, including rapid frequency changes resulting from potential generation outages or imbalances due to the unpredictability of renewable power, pose a significant challenge in maintaining the frequency nadir without external support. This paper presents a unit commitment (UC) model with data-driven frequency nadir constraints, including either frequency nadir or minimum inertia requirements, helping to limit frequency deviations after significant generator outages. The constraints are formulated using a linear regression model that takes advantage of real-world, year-long generation scheduling and dynamic simulation data. The efficacy of the proposed UC model is verified through a year-long simulation in an actual island power system using historical weather data. The alternative minimum inertia constraint, derived from actual system operation assumptions, is also evaluated. Findings demonstrate that the proposed frequency nadir constraint notably improves the system's frequency nadir under high photovoltaic (PV) penetration levels, albeit with a slight increase in generation costs, when compared to the alternative minimum inertia constraint.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Frequency-Nadir-Constrained Unit Commitment for Low-Inertia, High-IBR Island Power Systems [Slides]

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of obstacle modelling approaches for resource assessment and small wind turbine siting: case study in the northern Netherlands

Abstract. Growth in adoption of distributed wind turbines for energy generation is significantly impacted by challenges associated with siting and accurate estimation of the wind resource. Small turbines, at hub heights of 40 m or less, are greatly impacted by terrestrial obstacles such as built structures and vegetation that can cause complex wake effects. While some progress in high-fidelity complex fluid dynamics (CFD) models has increased the potential accuracy for modelling the impacts of obstacles on turbulent wind flow, these models are too computationally expensive for practical siting and resource assessment applications. To understand the efficacy of available models in situ, this study evaluates classic and commonly used methods alongside new state-of-the-art lower-order models derived from CFD simulations and machine learning approaches. This evaluation is conducted using a subset of an extensive original dataset of measurements from more than 300 operational wind turbines in the northern Netherlands. The results show that data-driven methods (e.g. machine learning and statistical modelling) are most effective at predicting production at real sites with an average error in annual energy production of 2.5 %. When sufficient data may not be available de novo to support these data-driven approaches, models derived from high-fidelity simulations show promise and reliably outperform classic methods. On average these models have 6.3 %–11.5 % error compared with 26 % for classic methods and 27 % baseline error for reanalysis data without obstacle correction. While more performant on average, these methods are also sensitive to the quality of obstacle descriptions and reanalysis inputs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Feedforward-feedback ammonia control at a water resource recovery facility based on a digital twin with hybrid model

Ammonia-based aeration control (ABAC) at full-scale Water Resource Recovery Facilities (WRRFs) can be challenged by diurnal loading and transport delays. This work addressed these challenges using a hybrid feedforward–feedback controller built on Activated Sludge Model 1 (ASM1), marking the first full-scale deployment to pair a mechanistic feedforward core with data-driven corrections. The objectives were to improve ammonia setpoint tracking, assess performance of the mechanistic model when enhanced with data-driven corrections, and document full-scale operation. The hybrid model incorporates two data-driven components: (1) a Mechanistic Error Forecasting Engine (MEFE), consisting of a multivariate linear regressor and a long short-term memory (LSTM) ensemble. Defying expectations, low-parameter models outperformed more complex alternatives, reducing the mechanistic error by 71%. (2) A Residual Oscillation Forecasting Engine (ROFE), based on Fast Fourier Transform, reduced the remaining error by another 35%. Two proportional–integral (PI) feedback loops further (i) trim the feedforward output and (ii) eliminate residual controller error in the final aerobic zone. In full-scale operation, the controller reduced mean-squared error (MSE) by 94% over the baseline and produced more stable dissolved oxygen (DO) setpoints. Overall, it was proven that layering multi-timescale data-driven models on a mechanistic core can yield reliable ABAC performance at WRRFs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning neutrino-nucleus cross sections

Neutrino-nucleus scattering cross sections are critical theoretical inputs for long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments. However, robust modeling of these cross sections remains challenging. For a simple but physically motivated toy model of the DUNE experiment, we demonstrate that an accurate neural-network model of the cross section—leveraging only Standard-Model symmetries—can be learned from near-detector data. We perform a neutrino oscillation analysis with simulated far-detector events, finding that oscillation analysis results enabled by our data-driven cross-section model approach the theoretical limit achievable with perfect prior knowledge of the cross section. We further quantify the effects of flux shape and detector resolution uncertainties as well as systematics from cross-section mismodeling. This proof-of-principle study highlights the potential of future neutrino near-detector datasets and data-driven cross-section models.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning Neutrino-Nucleus Cross Sections

Neutrino-nucleus scattering cross sections are critical theoretical inputs for long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments. However, robust modeling of these cross sections remains challenging. For a simple but physically motivated toy model of the DUNE experiment, we demonstrate that an accurate neural-network model of the cross section—leveraging only Standard-Model symmetries— can be learned from near-detector data. We perform a neutrino oscillation analysis with simulated far-detector events, finding that oscillation analysis results enabled by our data-driven cross-section model approach the theoretical limit achievable with perfect prior knowledge of the cross section. We further quantify the effects of flux shape and detector resolution uncertainties as well as systematics from cross-section mismodeling. This proof-of-principle study highlights the potential of future neutrino near-detector datasets and data-driven cross-section models.

Tame-Narvaez, Karla [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000022249↗

DOE OSTI2020

Survey of Dynamic Mode Decomposition Methods

Dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is a data-driven reduced order modeling (ROM) technique used for dynamic systems. The widely adopted algorithm was first introduced and demonstrated on fluid flow data by Schmid. In recent years, various other fields, such as nuclear engineering, have begun to adopt this method. For example, DMD has been used for estimating α-eigenvalues, as an ROM for pulsed neutron problems, for predicting isotopic composition in burnup calculations, as acceleration techniques for iterative methods, and in capturing dynamic behaviors in molten salt reactor transients. This report seeks to demonstrate the capabilities and limits of the standard DMD algorithm, and identify problem spaces where variants may be better suited. The primary variant this report considers is Multi-Resolution DMD (mrDMD). Because this serves as a survey, synthetically produced data is used in lieu of simulation results. The remainder of this report will go into detail on the DMD theory, outline the standard DMD and mrDMD algorithms, present test cases highlighting the applicability of each, and finally present a discussion on how to determine the best suited algorithm for a given problem. All calculations performed in this report are carried out using the open source DMD library, PyDMD.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enabling Efficient Surveillance, Control, and Automation of Geothermal Operations with Advanced Predictive Analytics

Automation and control of geothermal energy production and operations require reliable and efficient predictive tools. While physics-based simulation offers a comprehensive tool for predicting energy production performance in geothermal systems, predicting the behavior of geothermal reservoirs involves complex multi-physics processes with coupling effects, highly uncertain input parameters and subsurface descriptions. Moreover, building, running, and integrating simulation models into standard model calibration and optimization workflows entail significant technical and computational efforts. An emerging alternative to physics-based simulation is data-driven predictive analytics models that have gained popularity in energy industry. In this report, we develop novel predictive models for integration into real-time fault diagnosis and model predictive control algorithms to improve the efficiency of energy production operations in geothermal reservoirs. The report includes two major research Thrust Areas, that is, the surface power plant and the subsurface reservoir.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development and Application of a Data-Driven Methodology for Validation of Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Models

The document is the Final Technical Progress Report for the Nuclear Energy University Program’s Integrated Research Project (IRP) on “Development and Application of a Data-Driven Methodology for Validation of Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Models” that supports the LWR Sustainability Program’s RISMC R&D Pathway. The project goal is to develop and demonstrate a data-driven methodology for validation of advanced computer models used in nuclear power plant safety analysis. Specifically, the advanced computer models are those in the toolkit developed to support risk-informed safety margin characterization (RISMC), an integrated deterministic/probabilistic safety analysis methodology developed in the Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWR-S) program. The report reflects the progress made towards the project’s stated goal by contributions by researchers and graduate students from universities, with support from researchers from national laboratories and industry companies. The project organization, effort coordination and technical implementation are summarized, followed by discussion of main findings, issues, and path forward. Selected chapters provide a more detailed description of tasks, approaches and respective findings and recommendations. Noteworthy are contributions that serve as guidelines for methodology development. It is also noted that this report is complemented by other milestone reports (as stand-alone deliverables) that provide detailed discussion of the technical developments. The project results have been documented in a number (12) dissertations and these, 50+ peer-reviewed publications in technical journals and conference proceedings.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Data-driven approach to Core Power distribution reconstruction in a Nuclear Reactor

This report presents the initial development of a data-driven approach for reconstructing the core power distribution in a nuclear reactor (power shape synthesis) using ex-core sensors. Traditional techniques rely on deploying a large number of detectors throughout the reactor core. However, this approach is not feasible for innovative reactor concepts like Advanced Reactors and Microreactors. First, the tight lattice pitch, designed to maximize power density, limits the space available for sensors. Secondly, the harsh operating conditions are not compatible with commercially available detectors. The method proposed in this work integrates high-fidelity modeling with data-driven techniques to accurately reconstruct power distribution across various reactor types, thereby reducing the reliance on in-core sensors. Purdue University Reactor One (PUR-1) was selected as the test case. The CAD model representing the latest configuration of the PUR-1 core was imported into the OpenMC simulation framework, and the model was built. Additionally, the previously developed MCNP6 model was updated. The two models were assessed against the data collected during an experimental campaign conducted in July 2024. Thirty gold foils were placed in three Irradiation Assemblies in PUR-1 core. Using the measured activity of the irradiated foils, the neutron flux at different core locations was estimated.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven high-dimensional statistical inference with generative models

Crucial to many measurements at the LHC is the use of correlated multi-dimensional information to distinguish rare processes from large backgrounds, which is complicated by the poor modeling of many of the crucial backgrounds in Monte Carlo simulations. In this work, we introduce HI-SIGMA, a method to perform unbinned high-dimensional statistical inference with data-driven background distributions. In contradistinction to many applications of Simulation Based Inference in High Energy Physics, HI-SIGMA relies on generative ML models, rather than classifiers, to learn the signal and background distributions in the high-dimensional space. These ML models allow for interpretable inference while also incorporating model errors and other sources of systematic uncertainties. We showcase this methodology on a simplified version of a di-Higgs measurement in the bbγγ final state, where the di-photon resonance allows for background interpolation from sidebands into the signal region. We demonstrate that HI-SIGMA provides improved sensitivity as compared to standard classifier-based methods, and that systematic uncertainties can be straightforwardly incorporated by extending methods which have been used for histogram based analyses.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A priori analysis on deep learning of subgrid-scale parameterizations for Kraichnan turbulence

In the present study, we investigate different data-driven parameterizations for large eddy simulation of two-dimensional turbulence in the a priori settings. These models utilize resolved flow field variables on the coarser grid to estimate the subgrid-scale stresses. We use data-driven closure models based on localized learning that employs a multilayer feedforward artificial neural network with point-to-point mapping and neighboring stencil data mapping, and convolutional neural network fed by data snapshots of the whole domain. The performance of these data-driven closure models is measured through a probability density function and is compared with the dynamic Smagorinksy model (DSM). The quantitative performance is evaluated using the cross-correlation coefficient between the true and predicted stresses. We analyze different frameworks in terms of the amount of training data, selection of input and output features, their characteristics in modeling with accuracy, and training and deployment computational time. We also demonstrate computational gain that can be achieved using the intelligent eddy viscosity model that learns eddy viscosity computed by the DSM instead of subgrid-scale stresses. Here, we detail the hyperparameters optimization of these models using the grid search algorithm.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Efficient and Scalable Time-Stepping Algorithms and Reduced-Order Modeling for Ocean System Simulations (Scientific/Technical Report)

This report provides a description of major accomplishments and results obtained by the University of South Carolina/Florida State University/Los Alamos National Laboratory team participating in the project "Efficient and Scalable Time-Stepping Algorithms and Reduced-Order Modeling for Ocean System Simulations" and the list of publications produced from the project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

The data-driven future of high-energy-density physics

High-energy-density physics is the field of physics concerned with studying matter at extremely high temperatures and densities. Such conditions produce highly nonlinear plasmas, in which several phenomena that can normally be treated independently of one another become strongly coupled. The study of these plasmas is important for our understanding of astrophysics, nuclear fusion and fundamental physics—however, the nonlinearities and strong couplings present in these extreme physical systems makes them very difficult to understand theoretically or to optimize experimentally. Here we argue that machine learning models and data-driven methods are in the process of reshaping our exploration of these extreme systems that have hitherto proved far too nonlinear for human researchers. Furthermore, from a fundamental perspective, our understanding can be improved by the way in which machine learning models can rapidly discover complex interactions in large datasets. From a practical point of view, the newest generation of extreme physics facilities can perform experiments multiple times a second (as opposed to approximately daily), thus moving away from human-based control towards automatic control based on real-time interpretation of diagnostic data and updates of the physics model. To make the most of these emerging opportunities, we suggest proposals for the community in terms of research design, training, best practice and support for synthetic diagnostics and data analysis.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Physics-informed hybrid modeling methodology for building infiltration

Infiltration is responsible for one-third to one-half of the space conditioning load of a typical residential home, but the modeling of infiltration for building energy modeling is either represented by over-simplified equations or dependent on over-generalized rules of thumb. Here, this paper develops a physics-informed data-driven methodology for modeling infiltration using building-specific empirical measurements. The developed hybrid methodology combines machine-learning categorization and grey-box sub-modeling to improve the accuracy and generalization of commonly used grey-box infiltration models. The developed methodology excels at predicting infiltration by improving the ability to predict infiltration under unseen environmental conditions using machine learning algorithms with physical significance. In a case study conducted using the iUnit, a modular studio apartment experimental test facility located at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, we use empirical airtightness measurements to fit an infiltration model using the developed methodology. We find that the developed methodology can improve the overall model accuracy by 43% and improve extrapolation by 38%, compared with the model based on the common grey-box infiltration equation. We also notice that the selected features can improve the performance of a pure machine-learning model, indicating that our methodology identifies the features with the most physical significance to infiltration modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗