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An updated estimate of the Mu2e experiment sensitivity

The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab will search for the conversion of a negative muon into an electron inside the field of a nucleus. This process does not conserve charged-lepton flavour and is heavily suppressed in the Standard Model (SM), with a branching ratio < 10-50. Any evidence of it would be an undeniable evidence of new physics beyond the SM. The project sets out to achieve a single event sensitivity of $\sim 3 × 10^{-17}$ on the ratio between the probability for a conversion of a negative muon into an electron and the one for a muon capture by the nucleus. Such a sensitivity would represent a 4 orders of magnitude improvement on the previous upper limit for the process, making possible to test predictions of different extensions of the SM. Mu2e uses three superconducting solenoids to produce and measure the muon conversions. In the first solenoid, the Production Solenoid, pions and kaons are produced, together with other secondary products, by 8 GeV kinetic energy proton interactions in a tungsten target. A gradient magnetic field is specifically designed to direct low momentum particles into the Transport Solenoid, an S-shaped magnet that filters out particles with unwanted charge and momentum. Muons, produced by pion and kaon decays, finally reach the aluminum Stopping Target in the Detector Solenoid, where they eventually stop and convert. The result of the conversion process is a monochromatic electron of ~105 MeV/c momentum. The Detector Solenoid also hosts the two main detectors: a straw tube tracker and two CsI calorimeter disks, both providing measurement of event kinematics. A germanium detector and a LaBr crystal are located downstream of the Detector Solenoid to measure the X and gamma rays produced by the muon captures in the Stopping Target. A veto system of scintillators covering the Detector Solenoid and half of the Transport Solenoid is used to identify and reject cosmic rays interactions. With respect to the initial project, the Mu2e running plan has evolved to a staged configuration with 2 years at reduced intensity before the 2025 accelerator shutdown for the neutrino beam upgrade and 2 or 3 years at full intensity after that. This, together with geometry changes and a better knowledge of detector performances obtained by the first slice tests, has required a full revision of the signal over background selection that is the subject of this thesis. In order to achieve a new estimate of Mu2e sensitivity, the simulation of the data corresponding to the first 2 years of data acquisition has been performed. This includes both conversion electrons (CE) and the main sources of background: cosmics, decay-in orbits (DIO), radiative pion captures (RPC) and antiprotons. The characteristics of the signal and of the main backgrounds have been studied to define the best selection variables for CE. A special effort has been devoted to the evaluation of the antiproton background. The lack of experimental data for antiproton production cross section makes the systematic uncertainty on this background significant. A new parameterization of the cross section has been developed to fit the existing data and to provide a more reliable estimate of the systematic uncertainty by comparing the results of the old and the new model. A special effort has been devoted to the optimization of the antiprotons Monte Carlo generator. This study has also revealed that the dominant component within this background is represented by antiprotons produced in the opposite direction with respect to the Transport Solenoid entrance and then redirected to it by back-scattering processes in the Production Target. This ultimately highlights the sensitivity of the background estimate to the G4 handling of antiproton interactions in the 1 to 3 GeV/c momentum range. Finally, the final experimental sensitivity has been studied. The momentum and time selection have been optimized to obtain the 5-sigma discovery reach or, in case of no signal, the upper limit on conversion probability. The results confirm that, in the firs t two years of data taking, Mu2e will be able to improve the current experimental sensitivity for muon-to-electron conversion in an atomic field by more than 3 order of magnitudes.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Predicting Pulsed-Laser Deposition SrTiO 3 Homoepitaxy Growth Dynamics Using High-Speed Reflection High-Energy Electron Diffraction

Pulsed-laser deposition (PLD) is a powerful technique for growing complex oxides with controlled stoichiometry. To understand growth dynamics therein, it is common to leverage in situ spectroscopies, such as reflection high-energy electron diffraction (RHEED), to monitor surface crystallinity. Most commercial systems rely on video-rate cameras operating at 60-120 Hz that lack sufficient temporal resolution to capture growth dynamics at practical deposition frequencies. Here, a high-speed platform to record in situ dynamics via RHEED at >500 Hz is implemented. An open-source analysis package is designed to fit diffraction spots to 2D Gaussians, allowing single-pulse surface reconstruction kinetics extraction. Using homoepitaxially deposited (001)-oriented SrTiO 3 as a model system, we demonstrate how high-speed RHEED can provide real-time insight into growth processes obscured by slower acquisition systems. By fitting the single-pulse intensity to a set of exponential functions, we observe changes in the characteristic decay time and mechanism correlated to the substrate step width and surface termination. We observe distinct surface effects, with diffraction intensity decaying on lower-energy TiO 2 -terminated surfaces and stabilizing on SrO- or mixed-terminated surfaces. Similarly, using an exponential model, the extracted characteristic time of adatom deposition decreases with increased density of bonding sites associated with mixed termination and narrower step widths. Ultimately, this work shows how increasing RHEED temporal resolution can uncover new insights into growth processes, with practical implications for the design and control of PLD processes. This experimental platform provides new capabilities to enable data-driven machine learning analysis and autonomous control systems to enhance the complexity and fecundity of PLD.

(SrO)↗

Utilization of the LS-APGD microplasma/orbitrap-FTMS booster system for detection and isotopic analysis of neodymium nanoparticles

Detection and isotopic analysis of particle populations has seen rapid growth across several application areas, including environmental analysis, nuclear forensics, and food safety. The ability to characterize the particles' unique elemental and isotopic fingerprints could provide information related to formation, processing history, and transport. Regarding nuclear forensics, isotopic analysis of particles derived from diverse materials is often used as a tool to trace the origin and processing history. Mass spectrometric-based techniques currently used for particle population analysis often suffer from limited mass resolution, particularly when dealing with real-world samples that are affected by isobaric and polyatomic interferences from the matrix. To address these analytical challenges, we propose a novel method utilizing the liquid sampling-atmospheric pressure glow discharge (LS-APGD) microplasma ionization source coupled to an ultrahigh resolution Orbitrap mass spectrometer, further enhanced with the FTMS X2T Booster data acquisition and processing unit. The FTMS Booster enables acquisition of extended transient times of up to 3 s, significantly improving mass resolution, thereby reducing or even eliminating the need for prior separation of isobaric or polyatomic interferences. Additionally, the detection of low-abundance isotopes was improved by increasing the signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio. As proof of concept, this study demonstrates the feasibility of the LS-APGD/Orbitrap-FTMS X2T Booster platform for direct analysis using a suspension of well-characterized ∼120 nm neodymium particles. The quality of the isotope ratios values obtained from a few hundred particles were in good agreement with those obtained from homogeneous ionic solutions. These results highlight the potential of the LS-APGD/Orbitrap platform for rapid, accurate, and interference-resilient isotope ratio analysis of particle populations without the need for dissolution and subsequent chemical separations, offering significant advantages for nuclear forensics, safeguards, and environmental applications. The effort here also points to further paths forward, hopefully towards single particle (SP) analysis using microplasma ionization and the ultrahigh resolving power of the Orbitrap mass analyzer.

FTMS X2T booster↗

SANE: strategic autonomous non-smooth exploration for multiple optima discovery in multi-modal and non-differentiable black-box functions

Both computational and experimental material discovery bring forth the challenge of exploring multidimensional and multimodal parameter spaces, such as phase diagrams of Hamiltonians with multiple interactions, composition spaces of combinatorial libraries, material structure image spaces, and molecular embedding spaces. Often these systems are black-boxes and time-consuming to evaluate, which resulted in strong interest towards active learning methods such as Bayesian optimization (BO). However, these systems are often noisy which make the black box function severely multi-modal and non-differentiable, where a vanilla BO can get overly focused near a single or faux optimum, deviating from the broader goal of scientific discovery. To address these limitations, here we developed Strategic Autonomous Non-Smooth Exploration (SANE) to facilitate an intelligent Bayesian optimized navigation with a proposed cost-driven probabilistic acquisition function to find multiple global and local optimal regions, avoiding the tendency to becoming trapped in a single optimum. To distinguish between a true and false optimal region due to noisy experimental measurements, a human (domain) knowledge driven dynamic surrogate gate is integrated with SANE. We implemented the gate-SANE into pre-acquired piezoresponse spectroscopy data of a ferroelectric combinatorial library with high noise levels in specific regions, and piezoresponse force microscopy (PFM) hyperspectral data. SANE demonstrated better performance than classical BO to facilitate the exploration of multiple optimal regions and thereby prioritized learning with higher coverage of scientific values in autonomous experiments. Our work showcases the potential application of this method to real-world experiments, where such combined strategic and human intervening approaches can be critical to unlocking new discoveries in autonomous research.

Biswas, Arpan [University of Tennessee, Knoxville,↗

GeoThermalCloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

The primary goals of this project are identifying hidden geothermal resources in the USA and designing profitable enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Many non-obvious processes and parameters could characterize geothermal resources and could control the ultimate energy potential of geothermal fields. Diverse datasets (e.g., geology, geochemistry, geophysics, satellite, airborne geophysics) are available to help characterize geothermal resources, but this data is sparse and multi-scale that has hindered attempts to leverage the datasets for geothermal exploration and profitable EGS design. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) give promise to overcome these issues. Modern ML methods and tools can (1) analyze large datasets, (2) assimilate model ensembles that include a multitude of inputs and outputs, (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning between sites with different data quality, (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures from field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify highvalue data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Energy gain scale calibration of the XRISM Resolve microcalorimeter spectrometer: ground calibration results and on-orbit comparison

The Resolve instrument aboard the X-ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM) is a 36-pixel microcalorimeter spectrometer that provides nondispersive spectroscopy with ∼ 5 eV spectral resolution in the soft X-ray waveband. Resolve has a requirement to provide an absolute energy-scale calibration of ± 2 eV from 0.3 to 12 keV. We describe our ground calibration strategy and results of a subset of the ground calibration campaigns, including a discussion of improvements in the energy scale ground calibration compared with Hitomi’s. These improvements include calibration of the low-energy band below 4 keV with the instrument in the flight dewar and the dewar aperture door open, which was not performed for Hitomi, and thorough measurements over an extended high-energy waveband to 22 keV. We also developed an improved technique for gain calibration of “mid-res” secondary events, which have suppressed gain due to proximity to a preceding X-ray event (18 to 70 ms) on the same pixel. We provide a discussion of the on-orbit energy scale monitoring campaigns and an assessment of the Resolve energy scale uncertainties, a key parameter for astrophysics analysis. Energy-scale calibration approaches for future space-based instruments, including the X-ray Integral Field Unit on Athena and microcalorimeter spectrometers proposed or under discussion for future X-ray observatory concepts, have heritage in the calibration of XRISM. We briefly comment on lessons learned from Resolve calibration that are relevant for these future instruments.

Aluminum↗

Accelerating the rate of discovery: toward high-repetition-rate HED science

As high-intensity short-pulse lasers that can operate at high-repetition-rate (HRR) (>10 H z ) come online around the world, the high energy density (HED) science they enable will experience a radical paradigm shift. The >10 3 increase in shot rate over today's shot-per-hour drivers translates into dramatically faster data acquisition, more experiments, and the ability to exploit machine learning, and thus the potential to significantly accelerate the advancement of HED science. A wide range of HED experiments, from opacity investigations to secondary source generation to plasma nuclear physics, will benefit from the increased statistics, precision, and exploration of phase space. Besides increasing the rate at which scientific experiments can be performed, HRR also allows for the rapid delivery of optimal experiments supported by simulations and modeling augmented by close coupling to empirical data. To fully realize such an HRR framework, numerous subsystems must be developed and brought together, including feedback laser control loops, high-throughput targetry and diagnostics, cognitive simulation, enhanced HED codes, and advanced data analytics. This paper describes the vision for an integrated HRR laser experimental HED system and outlines some of the major considerations and challenges for realizing it.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Python Instrument Control and Data Acquisition Suite for Reproducible Research

Tools that standardize and automate experimental data collection are needed for greater confidence in research results. The National Synchrotron Light Source-II (NSLS-II) has generated an open-source Python data acquisition, management, and analysis software suite that automates X-ray experiments and collects an experimental record that facilitates complete reproducibility. Here, we show that the NSLS-II tools are not only useful for X-ray science at large-scale facilities by presenting an add-on package that adapts these tools for use in a small laboratory with common physics and electrical engineering instruments. The composite software suite eases and automates the execution of experiments, records extensive metadata, stores data in portable containers, and speeds up the analysis through tools for comprehensive searches. In total, this software suite increases the reproducibility of laboratory experiments. We demonstrate the software via the evaluation of two lock-in amplifiers-the miniature ADA2200 and the ubiquitous Stanford Research Systems (SRS) SR810. The frequency resolution, signal-to-noise ratio, and dynamic reserve of the lock-in amplifiers are measured and presented. The usage of the software suite is described throughout these measurements so that the reader can implement the tools in their lab.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Hardware, methodology and applications of 2 + D backscatter Mössbauer spectroscopy with simultaneous x-ray and γ-ray detection

Abstract A unique method is presented for the acquisition and analysis of 57 Fe backscatter Mössbauer spectra with simultaneous detection of the resonant 14.4 keV γ -rays and the characteristic 6.4 keV x-rays, using a custom-built multi-parameter analyser constructed on the basis of commercial analogue to digital converters and high-speed digital latches. The system allows for the simultaneous registration of Doppler-modulation velocities and photon energies, with up to 4096 and 8192 digital channels respectively. This arrangement is in contrast to most related systems, which detect at a single narrow energy window per detector. Samples of arbitrary atomic structure, morphology and surface topography can be studied without altering the setup or the analysis procedure, provided that the samples are at least micrometre sized. The hardware and software that are used to acquire data with minimal dead time are described and the custom and self-contained methods for post-measurement energy discrimination, background correction and velocity-axis folding are discussed. The data are fit using a general Hamiltonian model for the nuclear energy levels of 57 Fe and a quantum mechanical description of the angular momentum coupling is utilised, with consideration of the crystalline and chemical disorder of the sample under examination. Three examples of distinct magnetic systems, with thicknesses ranging from 5 μ m to 6 mm, that were studied using this method are presented, these are: an amorphous CoFeB-based ribbon with ultra-soft coercivity for high-frequency applications, magnetically hard Nd-Fe-B thick films on Si substrates, examined in both as-deposited and annealed states, and a sample from the nickel-rich iron meteorite NWA 6259 that contains the atomically ordered, elevated coercivity, L 1 0 phase of FeNi, tetrataenite. The wide applicability and usefulness of this method is thus demonstrated on three distinct sample morphologies that required little to no surface preparation prior to examination.

Engineering↗

Advancing Solar Innovation for Low and Moderate-Income Households (Final Technical Report)

The overarching goal of this project was to deepen the understanding of the social and economic aspects of solar adoption, with a specific eye towards any pathways or barriers that could be identified that directly impact low and moderate-income households. Specific objectives included (1) identifying and assessing significant non-economic barriers that complicate the ability of LMI households to adopt and benefit from solar, even under scenarios with low economic barriers; (2) assessing the differential ability of groups to benefit from solar adoption based on their ability to invest in different solar innovations; (3) explaining why some LMI communities nonetheless experience significantly higher rates of solar adoption and benefit than others; (4) developing a methodological model for generating data addressing key issues to the project; and (5) designing and developing an interactive web portal that aggregates existing datasets, provides researchers trend analysis capabilities, standardizes project protocols for other states and communities; provides the opportunities for researchers using the same protocol in other communities to upload their results; and engages with the general public by providing them the ability to upload their own perspectives and stories of solar technology adoption. Through a common framework for conducting semi-structured field interviews. In partnership with cooperative extension services, in conjunction with survey research and the aggregation of existing solar adoption datasets, this study has identified that currently ,there is a strong values alignment and knowledge access challenge that continues to affect solar adoption. Participants in this study – many of whom are either low or moderate-income and/or live in underserved rural communities do not believe solar is an option where they live or believe solar is appropriate for their lifestyle. This perception challenge is further exacerbated by the absolute dearth of adopters in most communities and a total lack of local marketing for solar energy. What marketing that does exist is geared towards audiences other than those in the participant's community, reinforcing a perception that 22% of survey respondents (n = 1,551) have: that solar energy is not meant for them and their community. Overcoming these serious human challenges pertaining to knowledge and marketing are critical to reducing the customer acquisition costs incurred amongst LMI communities and especially those in rural America where the opportunities solar provides to increase local energy resilience, security, all while engaging in personal stewardship of the planet could align with local values. Community-Based Social Marketing, built in partnership with community leaders and geared towards meeting local visions of ideal life, is a near term opportunity to bridge the gap between local priorities and national market and policy imperatives for solar while moving towards the administration's goals for renewable energy as part of a just and equitable decarbonization program. The tools and methods developed for this study can serve as a template for identifying other specific local challenges for solar adoption in other state, and provide the opportunity for a common data framework for understanding system-wide trends and barriers to achieving uptake of residential solar in communities that may, ultimately, benefit the most from the technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

New Orthophoto Generation Strategies from UAV and Ground Remote Sensing Platforms for High-Throughput Phenotyping

Remote sensing platforms have become an effective data acquisition tool for digital agriculture. Imaging sensors onboard unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and tractors are providing unprecedented high-geometric-resolution data for several crop phenotyping activities (e.g., canopy cover estimation, plant localization, and flowering date identification). Among potential products, orthophotos play an important role in agricultural management. Traditional orthophoto generation strategies suffer from several artifacts (e.g., double mapping, excessive pixilation, and seamline distortions). The above problems are more pronounced when dealing with mid- to late-season imagery, which is often used for establishing flowering date (e.g., tassel and panicle detection for maize and sorghum crops, respectively). In response to these challenges, this paper introduces new strategies for generating orthophotos that are conducive to the straightforward detection of tassels and panicles. The orthophoto generation strategies are valid for both frame and push-broom imaging systems. The target function of these strategies is striking a balance between the improved visual appearance of tassels/panicles and their geolocation accuracy. The new strategies are based on generating a smooth digital surface model (DSM) that maintains the geolocation quality along the plant rows while reducing double mapping and pixilation artifacts. Moreover, seamline control strategies are applied to avoid having seamline distortions at locations where the tassels and panicles are expected. The quality of generated orthophotos is evaluated through visual inspection as well as quantitative assessment of the degree of similarity between the generated orthophotos and original images. Several experimental results from both UAV and ground platforms show that the proposed strategies do improve the visual quality of derived orthophotos while maintaining the geolocation accuracy at tassel/panicle locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

RhizoVision Explorer: open-source software for root image analysis and measurement standardization

Abstract Roots are central to the function of natural and agricultural ecosystems by driving plant acquisition of soil resources and influencing the carbon cycle. Root characteristics like length, diameter and volume are critical to measure to understand plant and soil functions. RhizoVision Explorer is an open-source software designed to enable researchers interested in roots by providing an easy-to-use interface, fast image processing and reliable measurements. The default broken roots mode is intended for roots sampled from pots and soil cores, washed and typically scanned on a flatbed scanner, and provides measurements like length, diameter and volume. The optional whole root mode for complete root systems or root crowns provides additional measurements such as angles, root depth and convex hull. Both modes support providing measurements grouped by defined diameter ranges, the inclusion of multiple regions of interest and batch analysis. RhizoVision Explorer was successfully validated against ground truth data using a new copper wire image set. In comparison, the current reference software, the commercial WinRhizo™, drastically underestimated volume when wires of different diameters were in the same image. Additionally, measurements were compared with WinRhizo™ and IJ_Rhizo using a simulated root image set, showing general agreement in software measurements, except for root volume. Finally, scanned root image sets acquired in different labs for the crop, herbaceous and tree species were used to compare results from RhizoVision Explorer with WinRhizo™. The two software showed general agreement, except that WinRhizo™ substantially underestimated root volume relative to RhizoVision Explorer. In the current context of rapidly growing interest in root science, RhizoVision Explorer intends to become a reference software, improve the overall accuracy and replicability of root trait measurements and provide a foundation for collaborative improvement and reliable access to all.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

An organogel library for solution NMR analysis of nanoparticle suspensions in non-aqueous samples

Surface contrast solution NMR methods (scNMR) are emerging as powerful tools to investigate the adsorption of small molecule ligands to the surface of nanoparticles (NP), returning fundamental insight into the kinetics and thermodynamics of sorption, as well as structural information on the adsorbed species. A prerequisite for the acquisition of high quality solution NMR data is the preparation of homogeneous and stable samples that return consistent NMR spectra and allow extensive signal averaging. Unfortunately, this condition does not apply to NMR samples containing NPs that often show a tendency to sediment and accumulate at the bottom of the NMR tube over the course of the experiment. We have recently shown that preparing NMR samples in an agarose gel matrix inhibits sedimentation and allows the characterization of small molecule-NP interactions by scNMR. Unfortunately, as the agarose gel only forms in aqueous solution, this sample preparation method cannot be used to stabilize NP suspensions in a non-aqueous environment. In this work, we introduce a library of 48 organogels, based on low molecular-mass organic gelators (LMOGs), to prepare NMR samples of small molecule/NP systems in a wide range of organic solvents. In addition, we present a simple method that takes advantage of 1H transverse relaxation (1H-R2) measurements to screen the library and identify the best gelator to characterize the small molecule-NP interaction of interest in the solvent of choice. We expect the results of this study will enable the preparation of homogeneous and stable samples of NPs in non-aqueous environments, therefore dramatically increasing the applicability of scNMR to the characterization of heterogeneous interactions and to the investigation of the role played by solvent molecules in regulating the kinetics and thermodynamics of sorption.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Coherent correlation imaging for resolving fluctuating states of matter

Fluctuations and stochastic transitions are ubiquitous in nanometre-scale systems, especially in the presence of disorder. However, their direct observation has so far been impeded by a seemingly fundamental, signal-limited compromise between spatial and temporal resolution. Here we develop coherent correlation imaging (CCI) to overcome this dilemma. Our method begins by classifying recorded camera frames in Fourier space. Contrast and spatial resolution emerge by averaging selectively over same-state frames. Temporal resolution down to the acquisition time of a single frame arises independently from an exceptionally low misclassification rate, which we achieve by combining a correlation-based similarity metric with a modified, iterative hierarchical clustering algorithm. We apply CCI to study previously inaccessible magnetic fluctuations in a highly degenerate magnetic stripe domain state with nanometre-scale resolution. We uncover an intricate network of transitions between more than 30 discrete states. Our spatiotemporal data enable us to reconstruct the pinning energy landscape and to thereby explain the dynamics observed on a microscopic level. CCI massively expands the potential of emerging high-coherence X-ray sources and paves the way for addressing large fundamental questions such as the contribution of pinning and topology in phase transitions and the role of spin and charge order fluctuations in high-temperature superconductivity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Application of Orthogonal Defect Classification for Software Reliability Analysis

The modernization of existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C) is a recent and highly trending topic. However, there lacks strong consensus on best-estimate reliability methodologies by both the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the industry. This has resulted in hesitation for further modernization projects until a more unified methodology is realized. In this work, we develop an approach called Orthogonal-defect Classification for Assessing Software Reliability (ORCAS) to quantify probabilities of various software failure modes in a DI&C system. The method utilizes accepted industry methodologies for software quality assurance that are also verified by experimental or mathematical formulations. In essence, the approach combines a semantic failure classification model with a reliability growth model to predict (and quantify) the potential failure modes of a DI&C software system. The semantic classification model is used to address the question: How do latent defects in software contribute to different software failure root causes? The use of reliability growth models is then used to address the question: Given the connection between latent defects and software failure root causes, how can we quantify the reliability of the software? A case study was conducted on a representative I&C platform (ChibiOS) running a smart sensor acquisition software developed by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU). The testing and evidence collection guidance in ORCAS was applied, and defects were uncovered in the software. Qualitative evidence, such as condition coverage, was used to gauge the completeness and trustworthiness of the assessment while quantitative evidence was used to determine the software failure probabilities. The reliability of the software was then estimated and compared to existing operational data of the sensor device. It is demonstrated that by using ORCAS, a semantic reasoning framework can be developed to justify if the software is reliable (or unreliable) while still leveraging the strength of the existing methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Application of Orthogonal Defect Classification for Software Reliability Analysis

The modernization of existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C) is a recent and highly trending topic. However, there lacks strong consensus on best-estimate reliability methodologies by both the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the industry. This has resulted in hesitation for further modernization projects until a more unified methodology is realized. In this work, we develop an approach called Orthogonal-defect Classification for Assessing Software Reliability (ORCAS) to quantify probabilities of various software failure modes in a DI&C system. The method utilizes accepted industry methodologies for software quality assurance that are also verified by experimental or mathematical formulations. In essence, the approach combines a semantic failure classification model with a reliability growth model to predict (and quantify) the potential failure modes of a DI&C software system. The semantic classification model is used to address the question: How do latent defects in software contribute to different software failure root causes? The use of reliability growth models is then used to address the question: Given the connection between latent defects and software failure root causes, how can we quantify the reliability of the software? A case study was conducted on a representative I&C platform (ChibiOS) running a smart sensor acquisition software developed by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU). The testing and evidence collection guidance in ORCAS was applied, and defects were uncovered in the software. Qualitative evidence, such as condition coverage, was used to gauge the completeness and trustworthiness of the assessment while quantitative evidence was used to determine the software failure probabilities. The reliability of the software was then estimated and compared to existing operational data of the sensor device. It is demonstrated that by using ORCAS, a semantic reasoning framework can be developed to justify software reliability (or unreliability) while still leveraging the strength of the existing methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Uncertainty-aware molecular dynamics from Bayesian active learning for phase transformations and thermal transport in SiC

Abstract Machine learning interatomic force fields are promising for combining high computational efficiency and accuracy in modeling quantum interactions and simulating atomistic dynamics. Active learning methods have been recently developed to train force fields efficiently and automatically. Among them, Bayesian active learning utilizes principled uncertainty quantification to make data acquisition decisions. In this work, we present a general Bayesian active learning workflow, where the force field is constructed from a sparse Gaussian process regression model based on atomic cluster expansion descriptors. To circumvent the high computational cost of the sparse Gaussian process uncertainty calculation, we formulate a high-performance approximate mapping of the uncertainty and demonstrate a speedup of several orders of magnitude. We demonstrate the autonomous active learning workflow by training a Bayesian force field model for silicon carbide (SiC) polymorphs in only a few days of computer time and show that pressure-induced phase transformations are accurately captured. The resulting model exhibits close agreement with both ab initio calculations and experimental measurements, and outperforms existing empirical models on vibrational and thermal properties. The active learning workflow readily generalizes to a wide range of material systems and accelerates their computational understanding.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Small Reactors in Microgrids: Technology Modeling and Selection (Net-Zero Microgrid Program Project Report)

This report demonstrates the capabilities of the net-zero microgrid (NZM) Xendee platform for modeling an SR module with electricity, heat extraction and thermal storage in microgrids configurations. The model effectively captures the most important technical and economic considerations for SR technology specific analysis: cost and operational characteristics of SR technology and financial costs and incentives. The model can analyze multiple scenarios to establish metrics for cost-competitive and zero-carbon microgrids connected to the grid or completely isolated. The model is fully integrated within the Xendee platform for modeling and analysis of clean energy microgrids with storage and generation from renewable energy sources. The model captures the capabilities, constraints, and nuances of SR by incorporating parameters related to plant economics, design efficiency and performance, plant operation and component and fuel lifespan. The cost and operational parameters modeled in the SR module are specific to the technology selected for integration in the microgrid. Cost parameters recognize advanced nuclear technology for modular production and installation based on economies of scale from factory manufacture and related commissioning, and cost reduction through technology maturation—first-of-a-kind (FOAK) and nth-of-a-Kind (NOAK). The cost parameters include installation, operations and maintenance (O&M), fuel refueling cycle, and reactor life. Installation cost reflects economies of scale due to unit sizing at scale and colocation. O&M economies of scale for both fixed- and variable-cost fuel life-cycle costs are incurred at every refueling interval, with separate front- and back-end fuel costs, as well as waste-handling and disposition costs. This report investigates key characteristics of different SR technologies suitable for microgrid applications, including design principles, sizing, coolant properties, temperature ratings, fuel structures, and life-cycle considerations. This also includes fuel technologies applicable to these SR systems, alongside strategies for nuclear-waste and spent-fuel management and approaches to address safety, security, and proliferation challenges. Four primary groups of SR technologies are examined: water-cooled, liquid-metal-cooled, high-temperature gas-cooled, and molten-salt-cooled systems. In this report, an initial guideline for technology selection is established, aligning the characteristics of the technologies with the requirements of microgrids. The selection of technology in a microgrid is influenced by various factors, including financial capacity, location and accessibility, demand type and characteristics, reliability and resilience requirements, area constraints, and the lifespan of the microgrid. The types of electrical and non-electrical applications within the microgrid also play a significant role in technology selection. The characteristics of SRs, such as their smaller size, modularity, transportability, long refueling interval, improved safety features, ability to operate in autonomous or semi-autonomous mode, and provision of high-grade heat, are particularly appealing for microgrids. Furthermore, a list of considerations for implementing SRs in microgrids is outlined. The SR model is created to be continuously improved with the acquisition of actual data on investment and operational costs, experience with supply chains, production at scale, and field deployments. In the near term, performance data on applications in microgrids will become available from lessons learned from laboratory tests, such as those planned for the Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation Project (MARVEL), led by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The SR model incorporates scenario data and known SR design specifications, enabling technoeconomic analysis for SR deployment in microgrids. It specifically considers the distinctive attributes of SRs as generators in technoeconomic studies. SRs can be modeled and analyzed with generation from renewable-energy sources, energy storage, and flexible loads over a range of functionality and applications. This offers a comprehensive tool for feasibility studies, scenario development, and sensitivity analysis for “what-if” consideration of any range of assumptions about SRs in microgrids and other aggregations of distributed-energy resources, including virtual power plants.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗