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At least 775 records · Page 43

Assessing the nexus between groundwater and solar energy plants in a desert basin with a dual-model approach under uncertainty

Globally, many solar power plants and other types of renewable energy are being located in water-scarce regions. Many projects rely on groundwater resources whose sustainability is uncertain. In the Chuckwalla Basin in California, quantification of recharge and trans-valley underflow is needed to estimate the impacts of solar project withdrawals on the water table. However, such estimates are highly challenging due to data scarcity, heterogeneous soils and long residence times. Conventional assessment employs isolated groundwater models configured with crude and uniform estimates of recharge. Here, we employ a data-constrained surface subsurface processes model, PAWS+CLM, to provide an ensemble of recharges and underflows with perturbed parameters. Then, the Parameter Estimation (PEST) package is used to calibrate MODFLOW aquifer conductivity and filter out implausible recharges. The novel dual-model approach, potentially applicable in other arid regions, can effectively assimilate groundwater head observations, reject unrealistic parameters, and narrow the range of estimated drawdowns. Simulated recharge concentrates along alluvial fans at the mountain fronts and ephemeral washes where run-off water infiltrates. If an evenly distributed recharge was assumed, it resulted in under-estimated drawdown and larger uncertainty bounds. The withdrawals are approaching total inflow, suggesting the system will be nearing, if not exceeding, its sustainable groundwater production capacity, and a boom of such projects will not be sustainable. Especially, the cost/benefit of pumped-storage projects is called into question as the initial-fill phase depletes entire area’s recharge. Our study highlights the stress on groundwater resources of solar development, and that the speed of groundwater recovery does not indicate sustainability. Main point 1: A novel dual model approach, involving an integrated surface/subsurface model and a groundwater parameter-estimation model, was able to better constrain the model. Main point 2: The groundwater system may be nearing, if not exceeding, its sustainable groundwater production capacity and the speed of recovery is not indicative of sustainability. Main point 3: Results from using conventionally-assumed uniform recharge distort calibrated K fields and impacts assessment

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Structure of Active Galactic Nuclei

We are continuing our systematic investigation of the nuclear structure of nearby active galactic nuclei (AGN). Upon completion, our study will characterize hypothetical constructs such as narrow-line clouds, obscuring tori, nuclear gas disks. and central black holes with physical measurements for a complete sample of nearby AGN. The major scientific goals of our program are: (1) the morphology of the NLR; (2) the physical conditions and dynamics of individual clouds in the NLR; (3) the structure and physical conditions of the warm reflecting gas; (4) the structure of the obscuring torus; (5) the population and morphology of nuclear disks/tori in AGN; (6) the physical conditions in nuclear disks; and (7) the masses of central black holes in AGN. We will use the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) to obtain high-resolution images and spatially resolved spectra. Far-UV spectroscopy of emission and absorption in the nuclear regions using HST/FOS and the Hopkins Ultraviolet Telescope (HUT) will help establish physical conditions in the absorbing and emitting gas. By correlating the dynamics and physical conditions of the gas with the morphology revealed through our imaging program, we will be able to examine mechanisms for fueling the central engine and transporting angular momentum. The kinematics of the nuclear gas disks may enable us to measure the mass of the central black hole. Contemporaneous X-ray observations using ASCA will further constrain the ionization structure of any absorbing material. Monitoring of variability in the UV and X-ray absorption will be used to determine the location of the absorbing gas, possibly in the outflowing warm reflecting gas, or the broad-line region, or the atmosphere of the obscuring torus. Supporting ground-based observations in the optical, near-IR, imaging polarimetry, and the radio will complete our picture of the nuclear structures. With a comprehensive survey of these characteristics in a complete sample of nearby AGN, our conclusions should be more reliably extended to AGN as a class.

Kriss, Gerard A.↗

Closing the Seasonal Ocean Surface Temperature Balance in the Eastern Tropical Oceans from Remote Sensing and Model Reanalyses

Residual forcing necessary to close the MLTB on seasonal time scales are largest in regions of strongest surface heat flux forcing. Identifying the dominant source of error - surface heat flux error, mixed layer depth estimation, ocean dynamical forcing - remains a challenge in the eastern tropical oceans where ocean processes are very active. Improved sub-surface observations are necessary to better constrain errors. 1. Mixed layer depth evolution is critical to the seasonal evolution of mixed layer temperatures. It determines the inertia of the mixed layer, and scales the sensitivity of the MLTB to errors in surface heat flux and ocean dynamical forcing. This role produces timing impacts for errors in SST prediction. 2. Errors in the MLTB are larger than the historical 10Wm-2 target accuracy. In some regions, a larger accuracy can be tolerated if the goal is to resolve the seasonal SST cycle.

Roberts, J. Brent↗

Drivers of coupled climate model biases in representing Labrador Sea convection

Abstract This study investigates the representation of ocean convection in the Labrador Sea in seven Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 datasets. The relative role of the oceanic and atmospheric biases in the subpolar North Atlantic gyre are explored using regional ocean simulations where the atmospheric forcing or the ocean initial and boundary conditions are replaced by reanalysis data in the absence of interactive air-sea coupling. Commonalities and differences among model behaviors are discussed with the objective of finding a pathway forward to improve the representation of the ocean mean state and variability in a region of fundamental importance for climate variability and change. Results highlight that an improved representation of ocean stratification in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre is urgently needed to constrain future climate change projections. While improving the ocean model resolution in the North Atlantic alone may contribute a better representation of both boundary currents and propagation of heat and freshwater anomalies into the Labrador Sea, it may not be sufficient. Addressing the atmospheric heat flux bias with better resolution in the atmosphere and land topography may allow for deep convection to occur in the Labrador Sea in some of the models that miss it entirely, but the greatest priority remains improving the representation of ocean stratification.

Liu, Guangpeng↗

Collisionless cooling of perpendicular electron temperature in the thermal quench of a magnetized plasma

Thermal quench of a nearly collisionless plasma against an isolated cooling boundary or region is an undesirable off-normal event in magnetic fusion experiments, but an ubiquitous process of cosmological importance in astrophysical plasmas. Parallel transport theory of ambipolar-constrained tail electron loss is known to predict rapid cooling of the parallel electron temperature $T_{e\Vert}$ although $T_{e\Vert}$ is difficult to diagnose in actual experiments. Instead direct experimental measurements can readily track the perpendicular electron temperature $T_{e\bot}$ via electron cyclotron emission. The physics underlying the observed fast drop in $T_{e\bot}$ requires a resolution. Here two collisionless mechanisms, dilutional cooling by infalling cold electrons and wave-particle interaction by two families of whistler instabilities, are shown to enable fast $T_{e\bot}$ cooling that closely tracks the mostly collisionless crash of $T_{e\Vert}$. These findings motivate both experimental validation and reexamination of a broad class of plasma cooling problems in laboratory, space, and astrophysical settings.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Freezing water at constant volume and under confinement

Water expands upon freezing. What happens when water is cooled below 0 °C in an undeformable, constant-volume container? This is a fundamental question in materials thermodynamics, and is also relevant in biological, geological, and technological applications in which ice forms under nano-, meso-, or macroscale confinement. Here, we analyze the phase-equilibria and kinetic behaviors of water and ice-1h in an isochoric (constant-volume) system. By making use of the Helmholtz potential F (temperature, volume), in contrast to the Gibbs potential G (temperature, pressure), we demonstrate significant changes in phase behavior when the specific volume of the container is constrained below that of ice-1h. We construct a T–V (temperature–volume) phase diagram for water and ice that features a broad two-phase equilibrium region, and we further derive an isochoric nucleation theory that reveals the existence of a critical confinement volume, on the order of microns, below which ice-1h is kinetically prohibited from forming.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An Optimization-Based Planning Tool for On-Demand Mobility Service Operations

Regions worldwide are adopting and exploring low-speed automated electric shuttle (AES) service as an on-demand shared mobility service in dense geofenced urban areas. Building on this concept, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) recently developed the Automated Mobility District (AMD) toolkit. The AMD toolkit—comprising of a travel micro-simulation model and an energy estimation model—estimates the mobility and energy impacts of a given shuttle configuration within an AMD. Early-stage AMD deployments need to find optimal operational configurations that include: (a) passenger capacity of an AES, (b) time-dependent routes, and (c) fleet size (AES units) to satisfy the demand for the region. This research extends the AMD toolkit functionality by developing an optimization-based planning module that will assist in the operations of AES units. We developed a constrained mixed-integer program accounting for passenger waiting time, battery range, and passenger capacity of AES units. For scalability, we demonstrated the Tabu search-based solution technique for a real-world network—a proposed AMD deployment in Greenville, South Carolina, USA. Compared to rule-based operations, our developed solution yields higher travel time and energy savings for the network at different demand levels. The sensitivity analyses for waiting time thresholds indicate nonlinearity in the system performance, underscoring the need to meet shared-use mobility user-level expectations. The developed optimization framework can be adapted and extended to accommodate different categories of shared-use on-demand mobility services.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

A new algorithm for constrained nonlinear least-squares problems, part 1

A Gauss-Newton algorithm is presented for solving nonlinear least squares problems. The problem statement may include simple bounds or more general constraints on the unknowns. The algorithm uses a trust region that allows the objective function to increase with logic for retreating to best values. The computations for the linear problem are done using a least squares system solver that allows for simple bounds and linear constraints. The trust region limits are defined by a box around the current point. In its current form the algorithm is effective only for problems with small residuals, linear constraints and dense Jacobian matrices. Results on a set of test problems are encouraging.

Hanson, R. J.↗

A comparison of dynamical and molecular gas masses in very luminous infrared galaxies

Observations of the 2.3 micron bands of CO have been used to measure the central stellar velocity dispersions in NGC 1614 and IC 694. K-band images were used to constrain models of the stellar mass distribution. With these data and a spectrum of Arp 220 from the literature, we have determined the total mass within the central regions of all three galaxies. The central molecular gas masses inferred from (12)CO J = 1-0 fluxes are larger than the total masses determined from stellar kinematics. Subtraction of the likely stellar mass from the total mass yields upper limits for the H2 mass that are 4-10 times less than the previously reported masses. This result supports other arguments that the I(sub CO)/M(sub H2) ratio is not the same in ultraluminous galaxies as it is in Milky Way giant molecular clouds.

Shier, L. M.↗

The linear polarization of 3C 345 in the ultraviolet

The linear polarization of 3C 345, a superluminal radio source and OVV quasar, was observed in two bandpasses in the ultraviolet (centered at 2160 A and 2770 A) in 1993 April using the High Speed Photometer on the Hubble Space Telescope. The quasar is significantly polarized in the UV (p greater than 5%). Ground-based polarimetry was obtained 11 days later, but a difference in the position angle between the observations in the visible and those in the UV indicate that the magnitude of the polarization of 3C 345 may have changed over that time. If the two observation sets represent the same state of spectral polarization, then the large UV flux implies that either the polarization of the synchrotron continuum must stop decreasing in the UV, or that there is an additional source of polarized flux in the ultraviolet. Only if the UV observations represent a spectral polarization state with the same position angle in the visible seen previously in 3C 345 can the polarized flux be represented by a single power law consistent with the three-component model of Smith et al. This model consists of a polarized synchrotron component, an unpolarized component from the broad-line region, and an unpolarized component attributed to thermal radiation from an optically thick accretion disk. Additional simultaneous polarimetry in the UV and visible will be required to further constrain models of the continuum emission processes in 3C 345 and determine if the UV polarized flux is synchrotron in origin.

Dolan, Joseph F.↗

Far UV Spectroscopy of eta Carinae

We present the first high spectral resolution observations of the Luminous Blue Variable eta Carinae between the Lyman limit and 1180 Angstroms. High resolution spectra (R approximately 20,000) were obtained with the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) satellite on Feb. 1 and Mar. 20, 2000. The observations were made with a 30x30 arcsec aperture and includes the entire Homunculus region. However, the spatial extent of the far UV flux is consistent with a point source. With the limited spatial resolution of the FUSE instrument, we can only constrain the far UV emission to be within +/-5 arcsec of the star. The far UV spectrum of eta Car is dominated by strong absorption features of molecular hydrogen. The observed flux level at 1150 Angstroms is approximately 4\times 10(exp 12) erg/sq cm/s/Angstrom and decreases approximately linearly to approximately 920 Angstroms where converging HI and HII features completely blanket the spectrum. These observations were obtained as part of the FUSE Early Release Observation program.

Iping, R. C.↗

Far UV Spectroscopy of eta Carinae

We present the first high spectral resolution observations of the Luminous Blue Variable eta Carinae between the Lyman limit and 1180 A. High resolution spectra (R approx. 20,000) were obtained with the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) satellite on Feb. 1 and Mar. 20, 2000. The observations were made with a 30 x 30 arcsec aperture and includes the entire Homunculus region. However, the spatial extent of the far UV flux is consistent with a point source. With the limited spatial resolution of the FUSE instrument, we can only constrain the far UV emission to be within +/- 5 arcsec of the star. The far UV spectrum of eta Car is dominated by strong absorption features of molecular hydrogen. The observed flux level at 1150A is approx. 4 times 10(exp 12) erg /cm(exp -2) /sec(exp -1) / A(exp -1) and decreases approximately linearly to approx. 920 A where converging H1 and H2 features completely blanket the spectrum. These observations were obtained as part of the FUSE Early Release Observation program.

Iping, R. C.↗

A new model of monodeuterated ethane (C2H5D) spectrum: Enabling sensitive constraints on the D/H in ethane emission in comets

Similar to ethane (C2H6), monodeuterated ethane (C2H5D) has a bright series of Q-branches in the CH stretch region, between about 2960 - 3020 cm (3.38 - 3.31 µm). As the progressions in the different isotopes are slightly offset from one another, the new C2H5D model enables sensitive constrains of the D/H ratio in spectra from comets, in organics across the Solar System and beyond. Specifically, the D/H ratio of organic molecules in comets is a critical cosmogenic indicator, which not only provides insights into the formation processes of our Solar System, but also allows for a test of our understanding of solid-state astrochemistry. High D/H ratios are predicted in a number of astrochemical models, which can be benchmarked using the new spectroscopic information of C2H5D and C2H6. We present a quantum band model for C2H5D in the mid-infrared. Our model is based on rotationally resolved spectra of C2H5D and C2H6 obtained at 85K between 2050 - 3050 per cm (4.88 - 3.28 µm) using a Bruker IFS-125HR equipped with a cryogenic Herriott cell at JPL. High-level quantum chemical calculations were carried out at the CCSD(T)/ANO1 level of theory to aid vibrational assignments, with the anharmonic frequencies and vibrational corrections determined from second-order vibrational perturbation theory (VPT2). As a first demonstration of the applicability of the model, we obtained a stringent upper limit to the organic D/H ratio (18.2 VSMOW) in comet C/2007 W1 (Boattini) from high resolution fluorescence spectra obtained with Keck/NIRSPEC.

Kirstin D. Doney↗

Towards Effective Drought Monitoring in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) Region: Implications From Assimilating Leaf Area Index and Soil Moisture Into the Noah-Mp Land Surface Model for Morocco

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has experienced more frequent and severe drought events in recent decades, leading to increasingly pressing concerns over already strained food and water security. An effective drought monitoring and early warning system is thus critical to support risk mitigation and management by countries in the region. Here we investigate the potential for assimilation of leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture observations to improve the representation of the overall hydrological and carbon cycles and drought by an advanced land surface model. The results reveal that assimilating soil moisture does not meaningfully improve model representation of the hydrological and biospheric processes for this region, but instead it degrades the simulation of the interannual variation in evapotranspiration (ET) and carbon fluxes, mainly due to model weaknesses in representing prognostic phenology. However, assimilating LAI leads to greater improvement, especially for transpiration and carbon fluxes, by constraining the timing of simulated vegetation growth response to evolving climate conditions. LAI assimilation also helps to correct for the erroneous interaction between the prognostic phenology and irrigation during summertime, effectively reducing a large positive bias in ET and carbon fluxes. Independently assimilating LAI or soil moisture alters the categorization of drought, with the differences being greater for more severe drought categories. We highlight the vegetation representation in response to changing land use and hydroclimate as one of the key processes to be captured for building a successful drought early warning system for the MENA region.

Wanshu Nie↗

Using SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture to Constrain MOD16 Evapotranspiration over the Contiguous USA

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key hydrologic variable linking the Earth’s water, carbon and energy cycles. At large spatial scales, remote sensing-based (RS) models are often used to quantify ET. Despite the large number of RS ET models available, few include soil moisture as a key environmental input, which can degrade model accuracy and utility. Here, we use model assimilation enhanced soil moisture estimates from the NASA SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) mission as a water supply control in the MOD16 ET algorithm framework. SMAP-derived daily surface (0-5cm depth) and root zone (0-1m depth) soil moisture are used with MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) vegetation observations, and 4km gridded regional surface meteorology (Gridmet) as primary inputs for estimating daily ET and underlying model soil and stomatal conductance terms. We calibrated the model environmental response parameters using tower eddy covariance ET observations representing major North American biomes. The model ET results were validated using a holdout set of tower observations spanning a large regional climate gradient. The updated ET estimates outperform the baseline MOD16 product across all tower validation sites (RMSE = 0.758 vs 1.108 mm day-1; R2 = 0.68 vs0.45, respectively). Smaller relative improvements were obtained using a recalibrated model with 4km Gridmet meteorology, but no soil moisture control (RMSE = 0.813 mm day-1; R2 = 0.66), indicating that these changes are essential for the improved model performance. The soil moisture-constrained model improvements and relative benefits from the SMAP observations are greater in arid climates, consistent with stronger soil moisture control on ET in water-limited regions. The use of SMAP soil moisture as an additional model constraint improves MOD16 regional performance and provides a new framework for investigating both soil and atmosphere controls on ET.

SMAP↗

Study of a Solar X-Ray Telescope

The highly structured nature of the outer solar atmosphere seems to be intimately linked to the presence, at the solar surface, of magnetic fields that have been generated inside the Sun and have emerged to the surface. The corona is brightest (and also hottest) at just those locations where the magnetic field has emerged from inside the Sun. Dynamo theory predicts that strong magnetic fields will be generated deep in the solar interior and that bundles or 'ropes' of magnetic flux will float to the surface. When this happens, a magnetically bipolar region will become visible, extending above the surface in a three-dimensional structure. The field lines penetrate through the surface, showing two magnetic poles, and also exhibit a three-dimensional structure above the surface. The structure created by the field emergence is rooted in the (relatively) cool photosphere and extends through the chromosphere and transition region to the corona. Thus, the magnetic field creates a region, called an active region, which contains portions at temperatures from less than 10(exp 4) K to greater than 10(exp 6) K, and is therefore visible at wavelengths from the infrared through x-rays. The locations where the magnetic field leaves and reenters the visible surface are called the 'footpoints' of the coronal structures associated with the magnetic field. The magnetic fields themselves are not directly visible. However, the hot coronal plasma is, for the most part, constrained to follow the direction of the magnetic field lines in the atmosphere. Now, 100 years after the discovery of x-rays by Wilhelm Roentgen in 1896, we can routinely make observations of the solar corona from outside the Earth's atmosphere in this region of the electromagnetic spectrum. As shown by comparing x-ray images with magnetograms, the bright corona over these bipolar magnetic regions consists of closed structures that seem to follow the orientation of the magnetic field. Although we can see down to the photosphere at x-ray wavelengths when observing the disk of the Sun, this part of the solar atmosphere emits so little that far from the peak of its Planck curve it appears dark in x-ray images. This impression of hot plasma following the magnetic field direction is further strengthened by quantitative studies that calculate coronal magnetic field strength and direction based on photospheric measurements and compare them with the observed brightness and location of the x-ray emitting structures. Such comparisons make it clear that, for the most part, the hot plasma conforms to the geometry of the magnetic field and that the coronal brightness is strongly linked to the strength of the magnetic fields which have erupted to the solar surface from the interior. It is also the case that the larger-scale, fainter corona, as well as coronal holes, are strongly influenced by the large-scale solar magnetic field. We may get a small hint of the reason that the coronal plasma outlines the direction of B by examining the thermal conductivity of a hot plasma in the presence of a magnetic field. This quantity has enormously different values in the directions parallel and perpendicular to the field for a coronal temperature of 10(exp 6) K, a particle density of 10(exp 9)/cu cm and a magnetic field strength of 100 G, the conductivity along the field is approximately 13 orders of magnitude greater than that perpendicular to the field. It is therefore not surprising that a parcel of plasma which is locally heated would conduct that heat preferentially in the direction of the field. We also note that the thermal conductivity parallel to the magnetic field increases with temperature T, while the perpendicular conductivity decreases. To the extent that the loop aspect ratio, i.e., the ratio of loop length to loop width, is determined by the thermal conductivity, we would expect that higher temperature loops are longer and thinner than cooler ones. However, if the loop width becomes smaller than the spatial resolution of the observing instrument, this effect will not be directly observable. For organizational purposes, we provide a listing of some scientific objectives for a Solar-B x-ray telescope, arranged in terms of identifiable features in the corona.

Golub, Leon↗

Leaf Wax Hydrogen Isotopes Reflect Storm Track Position Over Western North America

Proxy records of past climates have yielded powerful insights into regional hydroclimate dynamics. Novel insights may be gained by reconstructing spatiotemporal changes in precipitation isotopologues in past climate states that cannot be gleaned from individual site‐level studies. In this paper, we ask whether latitudinal gradients in the stable hydrogen isotopic composition of precipitation, as inferred from sedimentary leaf wax biomarkers, reflect aspects of large‐scale climate conditions in western North America (WNA). Modern coretop samples from offshore WNA show that leaf wax hydrogen isotopes broadly track the hydrogen isotopic composition of rainfall between 20 and 40N, but with an offset corresponding to a relatively constant “apparent fractionation” value. Poleward of 40N, the leaf wax signal may be complicated by fluvial transport of leaf waxes from the continental interior. Leaf wax‐inferred precipitation hydrogen isotopes show a shift to more negative values between 30 and 40N. We use modern observational data to show that this latitudinal range marks a major transition between the subtropical arid zone and the location of the midlatitude storm tracks over the northeast Pacific. Nudged water isotope‐enabled models capture the location of the arid to mesic climate transition with fidelity. This modern data set suggests that reconstructions of the latitudinal gradient of precipitation hydrogen isotopes can constrain the sensitivity of the storm tracks to shifts in climatic boundary conditions in past climate states. This approach can yield novel insights into past, present, and future hydroclimate variability in this arid region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗