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NASA NTRS2007

Iapetus' Geophysics: Rotation Rate, Shape, and Equatorial Ridge

Iapetus has preserved evidence that constrains the modeling of its geophysical history from the time of its accretion until now. The evidence is (a) its present 79.33-day rotation or spin rate, (b) its shape that corresponds to the equilibrium figure for a hydrostatic body rotating with a period of approximately 16 h, and (c) its high, equatorial ridge, which is unique in the Solar System. This paper reports the results of an investigation into the coupling between Iapetus' thermal and orbital evolution for a wide range of conditions including the spatial distributions with time of composition, porosity, short-lived radioactive isotopes (SLRI), and temperature. The thermal model uses conductive heat transfer with temperature-dependent conductivity. Only models with a thick lithosphere and an interior viscosity in the range of about the water ice melting point can explain the observed shape. Short-lived radioactive isotopes provide the heat needed to decrease porosity in Iapetus? early history. This increases thermal conductivity and allows the development of the strong lithosphere that is required to preserve the 16-h rotational shape and the high vertical relief of the topography. Long-lived radioactive isotopes and SLRI raise internal temperatures high enough that significant tidal dissipation can start, and despin Iapetus to synchronous rotation. This occurred several hundred million years after Iapetus formed. The models also constrain the time when Iapetus formed because the successful models are critically dependent upon having just the right amount of heat added by SLRI decay in this early period. The amount of heat available from short-lived radioactivity is not a free parameter but is fixed by the time when Iapetus accreted, by the canonical concentration of Al-26, and, to a lesser extent, by the concentration of Fe-60. The needed amount of heat is available only if Iapetus accreted between 2.5 and 5.0Myr after the formation of the calcium aluminum inclusions as found in meteorites. Models with these features allow us to explain Iapetus? present synchronous rotation, its fossil 16-h shape, and the context within which the equatorial ridge arose.

geophysics↗
NASA NTRS2022

Defining the upper boundary of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL) using the static stability

The Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL) is located in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) during the Asian Summer Monsoon. However, what dynamical feature separates the ATAL from the well-known stratospheric ‘Junge layer’ is not yet clear. In this study, using the in-situ (Radiosonde, Ozonesonde, backscatter sonde and cryogenic frost-point hygrometer) observations from multiple locations in India (Gadanki (13.45° N, 79.18° E), Hyderabad (17.47° N, 78.58° E) and Varanasi (25.27° N, 82.99° E)) and multi-satellite observations ((Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Observation, (CALIPSO), Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) and Constellation Observation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) Global Position System (GPS) Radio Occultation (RO) (COSMIC GPS-RO)) we show that the ATAL can exist up to the layer of maximum stability (LmaxS), located a few kilometers above the tropopause, determined using the square of Brunt Väisäla frequency. These in-situ observations over Indian stations collected during the ISRO-NASA Balloon Measurement Campaigns of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (BATAL) show that the ATAL top can reach up to ∼442 K potential temperature level over the Indian region. The LmaxS delineated from COSMIC GPSRO observations over the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone (ASMA) region indicates that the top of ATAL can reach up to 454 K potential temperature level, which is lower than the earlier Lagrangian transport model predicted 460 K. The temperature inversion at LmaxS acts as a lid and constrains the direct transport of aerosols to higher altitudes.

S.T. Akhil Raj↗
NASA NTRS2007

Automated Knowledge Discovery From Simulators

A computational method, SimLearn, has been devised to facilitate efficient knowledge discovery from simulators. Simulators are complex computer programs used in science and engineering to model diverse phenomena such as fluid flow, gravitational interactions, coupled mechanical systems, and nuclear, chemical, and biological processes. SimLearn uses active-learning techniques to efficiently address the "landscape characterization problem." In particular, SimLearn tries to determine which regions in "input space" lead to a given output from the simulator, where "input space" refers to an abstraction of all the variables going into the simulator, e.g., initial conditions, parameters, and interaction equations. Landscape characterization can be viewed as an attempt to invert the forward mapping of the simulator and recover the inputs that produce a particular output. Given that a single simulation run can take days or weeks to complete even on a large computing cluster, SimLearn attempts to reduce costs by reducing the number of simulations needed to effect discoveries. Unlike conventional data-mining methods that are applied to static predefined datasets, SimLearn involves an iterative process in which a most informative dataset is constructed dynamically by using the simulator as an oracle. On each iteration, the algorithm models the knowledge it has gained through previous simulation trials and then chooses which simulation trials to run next. Running these trials through the simulator produces new data in the form of input-output pairs. The overall process is embodied in an algorithm that combines support vector machines (SVMs) with active learning. SVMs use learning from examples (the examples are the input-output pairs generated by running the simulator) and a principle called maximum margin to derive predictors that generalize well to new inputs. In SimLearn, the SVM plays the role of modeling the knowledge that has been gained through previous simulation trials. Active learning is used to determine which new input points would be most informative if their output were known. The selected input points are run through the simulator to generate new information that can be used to refine the SVM. The process is then repeated. SimLearn carefully balances exploration (semi-randomly searching around the input space) versus exploitation (using the current state of knowledge to conduct a tightly focused search). During each iteration, SimLearn uses not one, but an ensemble of SVMs. Each SVM in the ensemble is characterized by different hyper-parameters that control various aspects of the learned predictor - for example, whether the predictor is constrained to be very smooth (nearby points in input space lead to similar output predictions) or whether the predictor is allowed to be "bumpy." The various SVMs will have different preferences about which input points they would like to run through the simulator next. SimLearn includes a formal mechanism for balancing the ensemble SVM preferences so that a single choice can be made for the next set of trials.

Burl, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2011

Variable X-Ray Absorption in the Mini-BAL QSO PG 1126-041

Context. X-ray studies of AGN with powerful nuclear winds are important to constrain the physics of the inner accretion/ejection flow around SMBH, and to understand the impact of such winds on the AGN environment. Aims. Our main scientific goal is to constrain the properties of a variable outflowing absorber that is thought to be launched near the SMBH of the mini-BAL QSO PG 1126-041 using a multi-epoch observational campaign performed with XMM-Newton. Methods. We performed temporally resolved X-ray spectroscopy and simultaneous UV and X-ray photometry on the most complete set of observations and on the deepest X-ray exposure of a mini-BAL QSO to date. Results. We found complex X-ray spectral variability on time scales of both months and hours, best reproduced by means of variable massive ionized absorbers along the line of sight. As a consequence, the observed optical-to-X-ray spectral index is found to be variable with time. In the highest signal-to-noise observation we detected highly ionized X-ray absorbing material outflowing much faster (u(sub X) approx. 16 500 km/s) than the UV absorbing one (u(sub uv) approx. 5,000 km/s). This highly ionized absorber is found to be variable on very short (a few kiloseconds) time scales. Conclusions. Our findings are qualitatively consistent with line driven accretion disk winds scenarios. Our observations have opened the time-resolved X-ray spectral analysis field for mini-BAL QSOs; only with future deep studies will we be able to map the dynamics of the inner flow and understand the physics of AGN winds and their impact on the environment.

Giustini, M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Performance results of cooperating expert systems in a distributed real-time monitoring system

There are numerous definitions for real-time systems, the most stringent of which involve guaranteeing correct system response within a domain-dependent or situationally defined period of time. For applications such as diagnosis, in which the time required to produce a solution can be non-deterministic, this requirement poses a unique set of challenges in dynamic modification of solution strategy that conforms with maximum possible latencies. However, another definition of real time is relevant in the case of monitoring systems where failure to supply a response in the proper (and often infinitesimal) amount of time allowed does not make the solution less useful (or, in the extreme example of a monitoring system responsible for detecting and deflecting enemy missiles, completely irrelevant). This more casual definition involves responding to data at the same rate at which it is produced, and is more appropriate for monitoring applications with softer real-time constraints, such as interplanetary exploration, which results in massive quantities of data transmitted at the speed of light for a number of hours before it even reaches the monitoring system. The latter definition of real time has been applied to the MARVEL system for automated monitoring and diagnosis of spacecraft telemetry. An early version of this system has been in continuous operational use since it was first deployed in 1989 for the Voyager encounter with Neptune. This system remained under incremental development until 1991 and has been under routine maintenance in operations since then, while continuing to serve as an artificial intelligence (AI) testbed in the laboratory. The system architecture has been designed to facilitate concurrent and cooperative processing by multiple diagnostic expert systems in a hierarchical organization. The diagnostic modules adhere to concepts of data-driven reasoning, constrained but complete nonoverlapping domains, metaknowledge of global consequences of anomalous data, hierarchical reporting of problems that extend beyond a single domain, and shared responsibility for problems that overlap domains. The system enables efficient diagnosis of complex system failures in real-time environments with high data volumes and moderate failure rates, as indicated by extensive performance measurements.

Schwuttke, U. M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Ocean Reanalyses and ENSO Forecasts By Assimilation of Rain Corrected Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Using the GMAO S2S Forecast System

During the past years, we have seen that the La Nina to El Nino transition has had a significant global socio-economic impact and so has been the key focus for improving coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasts. Assimilation of satellite altimetry and subsurface temperature and salinity from (mostly) Argo help to improve the initialization of the thermocline, while satellite Sea Surface Temperature (SST) aids in constraining surface heat-fluxes, leading to improved subseasonal to seasonal forecasts of the coupled system. However, few studies have focused on improving the fresh-water flux and near-surface density and mixing through assimilation of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS). For expediency, the few ocean models that do assimilate SSS bias-correct the satellite SSS data to normalize towards the near-surface Argo data. However, in rainy regions, where buoyant water sits as a fresh lens at the surface, this assumption is likely inadequate. In previous work, we have shown that adjusting SSS data to bulk salinity (Sb) using the Rain Impact Model (RIM) of Santos-Garcia et al., 2014 has improved the near-surface density and mixed layer depth, leading to deeper thermocline and improved the NINO3.4 SST forecasts. Now we utilize the Soil Moisture/Ocean Salinity, Rain Corrected (SMOS_RC) SSS product provided by the Centre Aval de Traitement des données SMOS (CATDS CPDC) to represent the Sb more accurately at first model layer (in our case 5 m). Rather than using a diffusivity model as with RIM, SMOS_RC relies on an observed relationship between the spatial heterogeneity of SMOS SSS and instantaneous rain rate (RR) (Supply et al., 2020). In order to test the impact of SMOS_RC versus SMOS, we compare two reanalyses over the period 2014 to 2021. For both reanalysis experiments, all available along-track absolute dynamic topography and in situ observations are assimilated using the LETKF scheme (Penny et al., 2013). One reanalysis additionally assimilates SMOS SSS data as is (i.e., with the fresh bias), and a separate reanalysis is performed assimilating the SMOS_RC data. We assess the impact for near-surface and subsurface dynamics within ocean reanalyses by validating against observations and explore how SSS assimilation (SMOS versus SMOS_RC) impacts dynamical ENSO forecasts using the NASA GMAO Sub-seasonal to Seasonal coupled forecast system (GEOS S2S-3, Molod et al., 2020, Hackert et al., 2023). We will show that improved SSS estimates and near-surface density and mixing led to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction and better ENSO forecasts.

Eric Hackert↗
NASA NTRS2003

Depth and Distribution of CO2 Snow on Mars

The dynamic role of volatiles on the surface of Mars has been a subject of longstanding interest. In the pre-Viking era, much of the debate was necessarily addressed by theoretical considerations. A particularly influential treatment by Leighton and Murray put forth a simple model relying on solar energy balance, and led to the conclusion that the most prominent volatile exchanging with the atmosphere over seasonal cycles is carbon dioxide. Their model suggested that due to this exchange, atmospheric CO2 partial pressure is regulated by polar ice. While current thinking attributes a larger role to H2O ice than did the occasional thin polar coating this model predicted, the CO2 cycle appears to be essentially correct. There are a number of observational constraints on the seasonal exchange of surface volatiles with the atmosphere. The growth and retreat of polar CO2 frost is visible from Earth-based telescopes and from spacecraft in Mars orbit, both at visible wavelengths and in thermal IR properties of the surface. Recently, variations in Gamma ray and neutron fluxes have also been used to infer integrated changes in CO2 mass on the surface. Measurements made by Viking's Mars Atmospheric Water Detector experiment were sensitive to atmospheric H2O vapor abundance. Surface condensates and their transient nature were detected by the Viking landers. The study here is motivated by recent data collected by the Mars Global Surveyor, affording the opportunity to not only detect the lateral distribution of volatiles, but also to constrain the variable volumes of the reservoirs. We elaborate on a technique first employed by Smith et al. By examining averages of a large number of topographic measurements collected by the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA), that study showed that the zonal pattern of deposition and sublimation of CO2 can be determined. In their first approach, reference surfaces were fit to all measurements in narrow latitude annuli, and the time dependent variations about those mean surfaces were examined. In their second approach, height measurements from pairs of tracks that cross on the surface were interpolated and differenced, forming a set of crossover residuals. These residuals were then examined as a function of time and latitude. The initial studies averaged over longitude to maximize signal and minimize noise in order to isolate the expected small signal. In this follow-up study we now attempt to extract the elevation change pattern also as a function of longitude, and we focus on the crossover approach.

Aharonson, Oded↗
NASA NTRS2017

Low-Thrust Trajectory Optimization with Simplified SQP Algorithm

The problem of low-thrust trajectory optimization in highly perturbed dynamics is a stressing case for many optimization tools. Highly nonlinear dynamics and continuous thrust are each, separately, non-trivial problems in the field of optimal control, and when combined, the problem is even more difficult. This paper de-scribes a fast, robust method to design a trajectory in the CRTBP (circular restricted three body problem), beginning with no or very little knowledge of the system. The approach is inspired by the SQP (sequential quadratic programming) algorithm, in which a general nonlinear programming problem is solved via a sequence of quadratic problems. A few key simplifications make the algorithm presented fast and robust to initial guess: a quadratic cost function, neglecting the line search step when the solution is known to be far away, judicious use of end-point constraints, and mesh refinement on multiple shooting with fixed-step integration.In comparison to the traditional approach of plugging the problem into a “black-box” NLP solver, the methods shown converge even when given no knowledge of the solution at all. It was found that the only piece of information that the user needs to provide is a rough guess for the time of flight, as the transfer time guess will dictate which set of local solutions the algorithm could converge on. This robustness to initial guess is a compelling feature, as three-body orbit transfers are challenging to design with intuition alone. Of course, if a high-quality initial guess is available, the methods shown are still valid.We have shown that endpoints can be efficiently constrained to lie on 3-body repeating orbits, and that time of flight can be optimized as well. When optimizing the endpoints, we must make a trade between converging quickly on sub-optimal endpoints or converging more slowly on end-points that are arbitrarily close to optimal. It is easy for the mission design engineer to adjust this trade based on the problem at hand.The biggest limitation to the algorithm at this point is that multi-revolution transfers (greater than 2 revolutions) do not work nearly as well. This restriction comes in because the relationship between node 1 and node N becomes increasingly nonlinear as the angular distance grows. Trans-fers with more than about 1.5 complete revolutions generally require the line search to improve convergence. Future work includes: Comparison of this algorithm with other established tools; improvements to how multiple-revolution transfers are handled; parallelization of the Jacobian computation; in-creased efficiency for the line search; and optimization of many more trajectories between a variety of 3-body orbits.

Parrish, Nathan L.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Molecular Dynamics Simulation of a Multi-Walled Carbon Nanotube Based Gear

We used molecular dynamics to investigate the properties of a multi-walled carbon nanotube based gear. Previous work computationally suggested that molecular gears fashioned from (14,0) single-walled carbon nanotubes operate well at 50-100 gigahertz. The gears were formed from nanotubes with teeth added via a benzyne reaction known to occur with C60. A modified, parallelized version of Brenner's potential was used to model interatomic forces within each molecule. A Leonard-Jones 6-12 potential was used for forces between molecules. The gear in this study was based on the smallest multi-walled nanotube supported by some experimental evidence. Each gear was a (52,0) nanotube surrounding a (37,10) nanotube with approximate 20.4 and 16,8 A radii respectively. These sizes were chosen to be consistent with inter-tube spacing observed by and were slightly larger than graphite inter-layer spacings. The benzyne teeth were attached via 2+4 cycloaddition to exterior of the (52,0) tube. 2+4 bonds were used rather than the 2+2 bonds observed by Hoke since 2+4 bonds are preferred by naphthalene and quantum calculations by Jaffe suggest that 2+4 bonds are preferred on carbon nanotubes of sufficient diameter. One gear was 'powered' by forcing the atoms near the end of the outside buckytube to rotate to simulate a motor. A second gear was allowed to rotate by keeping the atoms near the end of its outside buckytube on a cylinder. The ends of both gears were constrained to stay in an approximately constant position relative to each other, simulating a casing, to insure that the gear teeth meshed. The stiff meshing aromatic gear teeth transferred angular momentum from the powered gear to the driven gear. The simulation was performed in a vacuum and with a software thermostat. Preliminary results suggest that the powered gear had trouble turning the driven gear without slip. The larger radius and greater mass of these gears relative to the (14,0) gears previously studied requires a smaller rotation rate and multiple rows of teeth to avoid excessive force on the gear teeth resulting, in slip and failure of the driven gear to turn. We hope that studies such as these will eventually lead to synthesis of components that can be assembled into atomically precise fullerene machines. These machines, in turn, may someday be used in machine-phase fullerene materials with remarkable properties.

Han, Jie↗
NASA NTRS2014

NuSTAR Detection of High-Energy X-Ray Emission and Rapid Variability from Sagittarius A(star) Flares

Sagittarius A(star) harbors the supermassive black hole that lies at the dynamical center of our Galaxy. Sagittarius A(star) spends most of its time in a low luminosity emission state but flares frequently in the infrared and X-ray, increasing up to a few hundred fold in brightness for up to a few hours at a time. The physical processes giving rise to the X-ray flares are uncertain. Here we report the detection with the NuSTAR observatory in Summer and Fall 2012 of four low to medium amplitude X-ray flares to energies up to 79 keV. For the first time, we clearly see that the power-law spectrum of Sagittarius A(star) X-ray flares extends to high energy, with no evidence for a cut off. Although the photon index of the absorbed power-law fits are in agreement with past observations, we find a difference between the photon index of two of the flares (significant at the 95% confidence level). The spectra of the two brightest flares (approx. 55 times quiescence in the 2- 10 keV band) are compared to simple physical models in an attempt to identify the main X-ray emission mechanism, but the data do not allow us to significantly discriminate between them. However, we confirm the previous finding that the parameters obtained with synchrotron models are, for the X-ray emission, physically more reasonable than those obtained with inverse-Compton models. One flare exhibits large and rapid (less than 100 s) variability, which, considering the total energy radiated, constrains the location of the flaring region to be within approx. 10 Schwarzschild radii of the black hole.

NuSTAR detection of high-energy X-ray emission and↗
NASA NTRS1995

Energization and transport of ions of ionospheric origin in the terrestrial magnetosphere

The work of this grant has been predominantly focused on ion outflows from two data sets: Prognoz 7 and Dynamics Explorer. The Prognoz analysis studied ion densities, temperatures, and flow velocities in the magnetotail. The work performed under this contract consisted of developing a program to load the raw data, computing the background subtraction of a strong sun pulse, and using the net count to calculate the low order moments of the distribution function. The study confirms the results of ISEE with regard to the supply of plasma from the cusp as a major source of plasmasheet plasma and goes beyond this to discuss the use of ion velocities as a way to examine the motions of the magnetotail. The abstract of the work to be reported is included as an appendix. The work on the DE/Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer is separated into two categories: (1) classification of low-energy ion flows from high-latitudes, and (2) studies of the polar wind. Major publications resulting from this work are also included as an appendix to this report. The polar wind is in a category by itself as a result of the thermal escape of hydrogen and helium because of ambipolar diffusion through the heavier, oxygen-dominated topside ionosphere. The analysis of the polar wind reports the flux variability as a function of season, magnetic activity, etc. Much effort has been expended under this grant to complete a follow on study of the thermal structure of the polar wind. Extensive display tools and analysis software have been developed and used in an attempt to carry out this thermal analysis. The present work uses a constrained fit scheme that combines the ion densities and flow velocities derived from Chandler et al. and a spacecraft potential derived from an empirical relation to the total ion density to determine the remaining fit parameter, the ion temperature, via a least squares fit to the RIMS data.

Waite, J. Hunter JR.↗
NASA NTRS1995

CFD-Based Design Optimization Tool Developed for Subsonic Inlet

The traditional approach to the design of engine inlets for commercial transport aircraft is a tedious process that ends with a less-than-optimum design. With the advent of high-speed computers and the availability of more accurate and reliable computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solvers, numerical optimization processes can effectively be used to design an aerodynamic inlet lip that enhances engine performance. The designers' experience at Boeing Corporation showed that for a peak Mach number on the inlet surface beyond some upper limit, the performance of the engine degrades excessively. Thus, our objective was to optimize efficiency (minimize the peak Mach number) at maximum cruise without compromising performance at other operating conditions. Using a CFD code NPARC, the NASA Lewis Research Center, in collaboration with Boeing, developed an integrated procedure at Lewis to find the optimum shape of a subsonic inlet lip and a numerical optimization code, ADS. We used a GRAPE-based three-dimensional grid generator to help automate the optimization procedure. The inlet lip shape at the crown and the keel was described as a superellipse, and the superellipse exponents and radii ratios were considered as design variables. Three operating conditions: cruise, takeoff, and rolling takeoff, were considered in this study. Three-dimensional Euler computations were carried out to obtain the flow field. At the initial design, the peak Mach numbers for maximum cruise, takeoff, and rolling takeoff conditions were 0.88, 1.772, and 1.61, respectively. The acceptable upper limits on the takeoff and rolling takeoff Mach numbers were 1.55 and 1.45. Since the initial design provided by Boeing was found to be optimum with respect to the maximum cruise condition, the sum of the peak Mach numbers at takeoff and rolling takeoff were minimized in the current study while the maximum cruise Mach number was constrained to be close to that at the existing design. With this objective, the optimum design satisfied the upper limits at takeoff and rolling takeoff while retaining the desirable cruise performance. Further studies are being conducted to include static and cross-wind operating conditions in the design optimization procedure. This work was carried out in collaboration with Dr. E.S. Reddy of NYMA, Inc.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2007

A First Approach to Global Runoff Simulation using Satellite Rainfall Estimation

Many hydrological models have been introduced in the hydrological literature to predict runoff but few of these have become common planning or decision-making tools, either because the data requirements are substantial or because the modeling processes are too complicated for operational application. On the other hand, progress in regional or global rainfall-runoff simulation has been constrained by the difficulty of measuring spatiotemporal variability of the primary causative factor, i.e. rainfall fluxes, continuously over space and time. Building on progress in remote sensing technology, researchers have improved the accuracy, coverage, and resolution of rainfall estimates by combining imagery from infrared, passive microwave, and space-borne radar sensors. Motivated by the recent increasing availability of global remote sensing data for estimating precipitation and describing land surface characteristics, this note reports a ballpark assessment of quasi-global runoff computed by incorporating satellite rainfall data and other remote sensing products in a relatively simple rainfall-runoff simulation approach: the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) runoff Curve Number (CN) method. Using an Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) as a proxy of antecedent moisture conditions, this note estimates time-varying NRCS-CN values determined by the 5-day normalized API. Driven by multi-year (1998-2006) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis, quasi-global runoff was retrospectively simulated with the NRCS-CN method and compared to Global Runoff Data Centre data at global and catchment scales. Results demonstrated the potential for using this simple method when diagnosing runoff values from satellite rainfall for the globe and for medium to large river basins. This work was done with the simple NRCS-CN method as a first-cut approach to understanding the challenges that lie ahead in advancing the satellite-based inference of global runoff. We expect that the successes and limitations revealed in this study will lay the basis for applying more advanced methods to capture the dynamic variability of the global hydrologic process for global runoff monlto~ngin real time. The essential ingredient in this work is the use of global satellite-based rainfall estimation.

Hong, Yang↗
NASA NTRS2018

Observations of Fast-Moving Features in the Debris Disk of AU Mic on a Three-Year Timescale: Confirmation and New Discoveries

Context. The nearby and young M star AU Mic is surrounded by a debris disk in which we previously identified a series of large-scale arch-like structures that have never been seen before in any other debris disk and that move outward at high velocities. Aims. We initiated a monitoring program with the following objectives: (1) track the location of the structures and better constrain their projected speeds, (2) search for new features emerging closer in, and ultimately (3) understand the mechanism responsible for the motion and production of the disk features. Methods. AU Mic was observed at 11 different epochs between August 2014 and October 2017 with the IR camera and spectrograph of SPHERE. These high-contrast imaging data were processed with a variety of angular, spectral, and polarimetric differential imaging techniques to reveal the faintest structures in the disk. We measured the projected separations of the features in a systematic way for all epochs. We also applied the very same measurements to older observations from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) with the visible cameras STIS and ACS. Results. The main outcomes of this work are (1) the recovery of the five southeastern broad arch-like structures we identified in our first study, and confirmation of their fast motion (projected speed in the range 4–12 km/s); (2) the confirmation that the very first structures observed in 2004 with ACS are indeed connected to those observed later with STIS and now SPHERE; (3) the discovery of two new very compact structures at the northwest side of the disk (at 0.40′′ and 0.55′′ in May 2015) that move to the southeast at low speed; and (4) the identification of a new arch-like structure that might be emerging at the southeast side at about 0.4′′ from the star (as of May 2016). Conclusions. Although the exquisite sensitivity of SPHERE allows one to follow the evolution not only of the projected separation, but also of the specific morphology of each individual feature, it remains difficult to distinguish between possible dynamical scenarios that may explain the observations. Understanding the exact origin of these features, the way they are generated, and their evolution over time is certainly a significant challenge in the context of planetary system formation around M stars.

Boccaletti, A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Control-structure-thermal interactions in analysis of lunar telescopes

The lunar telescope project was an excellent model for the CSTI study because a telescope is a very sensitive instrument, and thermal expansion or mechanical vibration of the mirror assemblies will rapidly degrade the resolution of the device. Consequently, the interactions are strongly coupled. The lunar surface experiences very large temperature variations that range from approximately -180 C to over 100 C. Although the optical assemblies of the telescopes will be well insulated, the temperature of the mirrors will inevitably fluctuate in a similar cycle, but of much smaller magnitude. In order to obtain images of high quality and clarity, allowable thermal deformations of any point on a mirror must be less than 1 micron. Initial estimates indicate that this corresponds to a temperature variation of much less than 1 deg through the thickness of the mirror. Therefore, a lunar telescope design will most probably include active thermal control, a means of controlling the shape of the mirrors, or a combination of both systems. Historically, the design of a complex vehicle was primarily a sequential process in which the basic structure was defined without concurrent detailed analyses or other subsystems. The basic configuration was then passed to the different teams responsible for each subsystem, and their task was to produce a workable solution without requiring major alterations to any principal components or subsystems. Consequently, the final design of the vehicle was not always the most efficient, owing to the fact that each subsystem design was partially constrained by the previous work. This procedure was necessary at the time because the analysis process was extremely time-consuming and had to be started over with each significant alteration of the vehicle. With recent advances in the power and capacity of small computers, and the parallel development of powerful software in structural, thermal, and control system analysis, it is now possible to produce very detailed analyses of intermediate designs in a much shorter period of time. The subsystems can thus be designed concurrently, and alterations in the overall design can be quickly adopted into each analysis; the design becomes an iterative process in which it is much easier to experiment with new ideas, configurations, and components. Concurrent engineering has the potential to produce efficient, highly capable designs because the effect of one subystem on another can be assessed in much more detail at a very early point in the program. The research program consisted of several tasks: scale a prototype telescope assembly to a 1 m aperture, develop a model of the telescope assembly by using finite element (FEM) codes that are available on site, determine structural deflections of the mirror surfaces due to the temperature variations, develop a prototype control system to maintain the proper shape of the optical elements, and most important of all, demonstrate the concurrent engineering approach with this example. In addition, the software used for the finite element models and thermal analysis was relatively new within the Program Development Office and had yet to be applied to systems this large or complex; understanding the software and modifying it for use with this project was also required. The I-DEAS software by Structural Dynamics Research Corporation (SDRC) was used to build the finite element models, and TMG developed by Maya Heat Transfer Technologies, Ltd. (which runs as an I-DEAS module) was used for the thermal model calculations. All control system development was accomplished with MATRIX(sub X) by Integrated Systems, Inc.

Thompson, Roger C.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Demonstrating Assurance of Model-Based Fault Diagnosis Systems on an Operational Mission

Developers of robotic scientific and commercial spacecraft are trending towards use of onboard autonomous capabilities for responding quickly to dynamic environments and rapidly changing situations. These capabilities need to know the state of the spacecraft’s health. Model-based fault diagnosis (MBFD) is an approach to estimating health by continuously verifying accurate behavior and diagnosing off-nominal behavior. Proper functioning of MBFD depends on 1) the quality of the diagnostic system model that is analyzed and compared to commands and onboard measurements to estimate a system’s health state, and 2) the correct functionality of the diagnosis engine interrogating the model and comparing its analyses to observed system behavior. Our goal is to develop Verification and Validation (V&V) techniques for MBFD to provide future missions sufficient confidence in its functionality and performance to deploy it on the systems they develop. Our work has been focused on infusing the techniques we developed earlier to an operational mission. First, we are constructing diagnostic models of a spacecraft attitude control system and updating our diagnostic engine so they can be demonstrated aboard the Arcsecond Space Telescope Enabling Research in Astrophysics (ASTERIA) mission, an operational spacecraft for which experiments in autonomy are being planned and executed, using the V&V techniques we have previously developed to assure they are both correct and complete. Since it is nearing the end of its life, ASTERIA provides a unique opportunity to demonstrate MBFD since the monitored components are expected to fail. Our demonstration will give system developers additional confidence to make timely, informed MBFD deployment decisions. Second, we will be completing performance assessments of the diagnostic engine/diagnostic model ensemble both on the flight system and ground-based testbeds to gain confidence in MBFD’s ability to run successfully in a spacecraft’s resource-constrained environment without adversely affecting other on-board activities. Finally, we are capturing our experience in preparing this demonstration in a set of checklists and guidance documents. Current practice includes high-level institutional guidance documents and standards, but at a high level of abstraction that does not necessarily address specific MBFD concerns. The purpose of the new checklists is to provide future mission developers clear, unambiguous, procedure-oriented guidance on assuring MBFD. This paper describes our work in these areas. For the first area, we describe the diagnostic models and updated diagnostic engine that will be used for the on-board demonstration. We describe how the V&V techniques we developed earlier are used to assure model and engine correctness and completeness. For the second area, we identify the performance measurement and assessment techniques used to characterize the diagnostic engine and diagnostic models, and discuss the effect of measured performance on overall mission operation. Finally, we present the checklist and guidance documents and describe how they meet the goals of providing system developers with clear, unambiguous, procedure-oriented guidance on MBFD assurance. We show how the techniques we have developed map into those artifacts.

Nikora, Allen↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Postshock Chemical Lifetimes of Outflow Tracers and a Possible New Mechanism to Produce Water Ice Mantles

We have used a coupled time-dependent chemical and dynamical model to investigate the lifetime of the chemical legacy in the wake of C-type shocks. We concentrate this study on the chemistry of H2O and O2, two molecules which are predicted to have abundances that are significantly affected in shock-heated gas. Two models are presented: (1) a three-stage model of preshock, shocked, and postshock gas; and (2) a Monte Carlo cloud simulation where we explore the effects of stochastic shock activity on molecular gas over a cloud lifetime. For both models we separately examine the pure gas-phase chemistry as well as the chemistry including the interactions of molecules with grain surfaces. In agreement with previous studies, we find that shock velocities in excess of 10 km/s are required to convert all of the oxygen not locked in CO into H2O before the gas has an opportunity to cool. For pure gas phase models the lifetime of the high water abundances, or "H2O legacy," in the postshock gas is approximately (4-7) x 10(exp 5) yr, independent of the gas density. A density dependence for the lifetime of H2O is found in gas-grain models as the water molecules deplete onto grains at the depletion timescale. Through the Monte Carlo cloud simulation we demonstrate that the time-average abundance of H2O, the weighted average of the amount of time gas spends in preshock, shock, and postshock stages, is a sensitive function of the frequency of shocks. Thus we predict that the abundance of H2O, and to a lesser extent O2, can be used to trace the history of shock activity in molecular gas. We use previous large-scale surveys of molecular outflows to constrain the frequency of 10 km/s shocks in regions with varying star formation properties and discuss the observations required to test these results. We discuss the postshock lifetimes for other possible outflow tracers (e.g., SiO and CH3OH) and show that the differences between the lifetimes for various tracers can produce potentially observable chemical variations between younger and older outflows. For gas-grain models we find that the abundance of water-ice on grain surfaces can be quite large and is comparable to that observed in molecular clouds. This offers a possible alternative method to create water mantles without resorting to grain surface chemistry: gas heating and chemical modification due to a C-type shock and subsequent depletion of the gas-phase species onto grain mantles.

Bergin, Edwin A.↗
NASA NTRS2005

An Improved Analysis of Forest Carbon Dynamics using Data Assimilation

There are two broad approaches to quantifying landscape C dynamics - by measuring changes in C stocks over time, or by measuring fluxes of C directly. However, these data may be patchy, and have gaps or biases. An alternative approach to generating C budgets has been to use process-based models, constructed to simulate the key processes involved in C exchange. However, the process of model building is arguably subjective, and parameters may be poorly defined. This paper demonstrates why data assimilation (DA) techniques - which combine stock and flux observations with a dynamic model - improve estimates of, and provide insights into, ecosystem carbon (C) exchanges. We use an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to link a series of measurements with a simple box model of C transformations. Measurements were collected at a young ponderosa pine stand in central Oregon over a 3-year period, and include eddy flux and soil C02 efflux data, litterfall collections, stem surveys, root and soil cores, and leaf area index data. The simple C model is a mass balance model with nine unknown parameters, tracking changes in C storage among five pools; foliar, wood and fine root pools in vegetation, and also fresh litter and soil organic matter (SOM) plus coarse woody debris pools. We nested the EnKF within an optimization routine to generate estimates from the data of the unknown parameters and the five initial conditions for the pools. The efficacy of the DA process can be judged by comparing the probability distributions of estimates produced with the EnKF analysis vs. those produced with reduced data or model alone. Using the model alone, estimated net ecosystem exchange of C (NEE)= -251 f 197g Cm-2 over the 3 years, compared with an estimate of -419 f 29gCm-2 when all observations were assimilated into the model. The uncertainty on daily measurements of NEE via eddy fluxes was estimated at 0.5gCm-2 day-1, but the uncertainty on assimilated estimates averaged 0.47 g Cm-2 day-1, and only exceeded 0.5gC m-2 day-1 on days where neither eddy flux nor soil efflux data were available. In generating C budgets, the assimilation process reduced the uncertainties associated with using data or model alone and the forecasts of NEE were statistically unbiased estimates. The results of the analysis emphasize the importance of time series as constraints. Occasional, rare measurements of stocks have limited use in constraining the estimates of other components of the C cycle. Long time series are particularly crucial for improving the analysis of pools with long time constants, such as SOM, woody biomass, and woody debris. Long-running forest stem surveys, and tree ring data, offer a rich resource that could be assimilated to provide an important constraint on C cycling of slow pools. For extending estimates of NEE across regions, DA can play a further important role, by assimilating remote-sensing data into the analysis of C cycles. We show, via sensitivity analysis, how assimilating an estimate of photosynthesis - which might be provided indirectly by remotely sensed data - improves the analysis of NEE.

Williams, Mathew↗