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At least 775 records · Page 43

Statistical Downscaling of Climate Models for Solar Resource Assessment

This study presents the development of statistical models to efficiently downscale future projections of solar irradiance for solar energy applications. A climate data set simulated from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) is selected as input to the statistical models to create high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Our approach builds statistical downscaling models that (1) regrid RCM data (0.22 degree and daily spatiotemporal resolution), (2) correct bias of GHI projections, (3) downscale the future GHI project from daily-scale to hourly-scale, and (4) spatially downscale to generate GHI at 8-km resolution. To calibrate and validate the statistical models, we adapt and use the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Preliminary results show that the statistical downscaling approach downscales future projections of GHI under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with a nBIAS of 3%, nMAE of 34% and nRMSE of 46% estimated against NSRDB for the contiguous United State. This presentation will summarize the implemented methodology and validation results as well as future extension of this research.

climate data↗

Bill Savings vs. Backup Power: Evaluating operational tradeoffs for home solar+storage systems [Slides]

Adoption of residential solar photovoltaic+energy storage systems (PVESS) is driven by both bill savings opportunities and customer demand for backup power. Prior work by this team (Gorman et al., 2022; Gorman et al., 2023) explored PVESS backup power capabilities during long-duration power interruptions (e.g., due to severe weather events), when customers are assumed to be able to anticipate the event and charge their batteries in advance. In many cases, however, power interruptions are unpredictable (and often relatively short); for those types of events, a customer will typically set its battery to maintain some minimum capacity in reserve in case of an interruption, which reduces the capacity available for managing utility bills. This study evaluates this operational tradeoff to help customers and installers configure backup reserve settings, and to inform decision-making more generally about the customer value of backup power services compared to utility bill savings. This study utilizes Berkeley Lab’s PRESTO tool to produce stochastic simulations of (predominantly short-duration) power interruption events, and builds on an earlier case-study demonstrating PVESS backup performance during short-duration interruptions (Baik et al., 2023).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Factors Influencing Building Demand Flexibility

The U.S. Department of Energy’s National Roadmap for Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEB) acknowledged that building demand flexibility (DF) is both an important strategy to decarbonizing the buildings sector and an important resource for meeting the changing needs of the electrical grid such as improving grid reliability. However, understanding the complexity and uncertainties in real building field performance of DF strategies is a large gap hindering stakeholders on both grid and buildings side to make investments on deploying such strategies. The research work in this report intended to advance understanding of the variability and influential factors in building demand flexibility. Adding such knowledge based on lab testing results and measured performance data from real buildings is an important contribution. The report uses standardized metrics and methods to quantify DF performance from field-measured DF datasets of two significant building groups of big-box retail and medium office buildings to present the challenge of building DF variability in multiple dimensions. The report presents findings related to how several key factors influence building demand flexibility from implementing a common, cost-effective DF control strategy (i.e., adjusting zone temperatures). The findings are supported by full-scale lab testing, field data analysis and simulation research. The authors also provided application-oriented recommendations to stakeholders such as building aggregators, utility program design professionals, sophisticated building portfolio owners, and more.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Bioeconomy Scenario Analysis

The Bioeconomy Scenario Analysis (BSA) project uses systems thinking and analysis to assess how techno economics, research and development, deployment strategies, policy, and market conditions affect the potential development trajectories of the developing bioenergy industry. This project informs researchers, decision makers, and industry by identifying opportunities for and constraints to industrial development and quantifying important industry metrics (e.g., energy, economic, environmental) towards a sustainable domestic bioenergy system. One of the tools used in this project, the Bioenergy Scenario Model (BSM) is a publicly-available, unique, validated, state-of-the-art, award-winning, fourth-generation model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on how and under what conditions biofuel technologies might be deployed to contribute to the U.S. transportation energy sector. Analysis products from this effort enable the development of the bioenergy industry by (1) encouraging policy-makers to explore multiple levers simulating outside impacts on biofuels production, identifying policy actions; (2) improving industry's understanding of growth potential under different market conditions, better targeting their development efforts; and (3) providing universities and other interested stakeholders with analysis tools and analyses that can be adapted to meet research and teaching objectives, thus connecting students with careers that build the industry.

bioenergy↗

On the Generation of Weddell Sea Polynyas in a High-Resolution Earth System Model

Larger Weddell Sea polynyas (WSPs), differentiated in this study from the smaller Maud Rise Polynyas (MRPs), forming to the east of the prime meridian in the proximity of the Maud Rise seamount, have last been observed in the 1970s. We investigate WSPs that grow realistically out of MRPs in a high-resolution (HR) preindustrial simulation with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 0.1. The formation of MRPs requires HR to simulate the detailed flow around Maud Rise, while the realistic formation of WSPs requires a model to produce MRPs. Furthermore, WSPs tend to follow periods of a prolonged build-up of a heat reservoir at depth and weakly negative wind-stress curl in association with the core of the southern hemisphere westerlies at an anomalously northern position. While this scenario also leads to drier conditions over the central Weddell Sea, which some literature claims to be a necessary condition for the formation of WSPs, our model results indicate that open-ocean polynyas do not occur during periods of weakly negative wind-stress curl despite drier atmospheric conditions. Our study supports the hypothesis noted in earlier studies that a shift from a weakly negative to a strongly negative wind-stress curl over the Weddell Sea is a prerequisite for WSPs to form, together with a large heat reservoir at depth. However, the ultimate trigger is a pronounced MRP; whose associated convection creates high surface salinity anomalies that propagate westward with the flow of the Weddell Gyre. If large enough, these anomalies trigger the formation of a WSP and a pulse of newly formed Antarctic Bottom Water.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DEVAP-EDDR-TES (Simulation framework for a desiccant assisted air conditioning system with heat pump regeneration and energy storage) [SWR-24-66]

This software is a simulation framework that models a load flexible air conditioner system. The system consists of an evaporatively cooled liquid desiccant air conditioner (eLD-AC) subsystem, an electrically driven desiccant regenerator (EDDR) subsystem, and a stratified liquid desiccant storage (SLDS) subsystem. The software can be used to 1) predict the steady-state performance of the system given user-specified convergence criteria; 2) predict the dynamic performance of the entire system over a typical drive cycle operation subjected to user-specified building thermal loads and desired electrical load profile; 3) evaluate the synergy of all three subsystems operating altogether and improve the energy storage control strategy.

Huang, Ransisi↗

Photoelectron Spectroscopy and Theoretical Investigations of Gaseous Doubly Deprotonated 2’-Deoxynucleoside 5’-Monophosphate Dianions

This work reports a systematic photoelectron spectroscopy and theoretical investigation on the electronic and geometric structures of four doubly deprotonated 2’-deoxynucleoside 5’-monophosphate dianions, the smallest quintessential DNA building block. These dianions are intrinsically stable with their adiabatic/vertical detachment energies (ADE/VDE) ranging from 0.85/1.07 (A), 1.05/1.30 (G) to 1.20/1.50 (C) and 1.80/2.10 eV (T). The repulsive Coulomb barrier against electron detachment is 2.0 eV for purines and 2.5 eV for pyrimidines. Dianions are deprotonated at the phosphate group and the amino group of a nucleobase. The calculated ADE/VDE values, as well as the simulated spectrum, agree well with the experimental results. The ?-type HOMO orbital resides on the nucleobase moiety for each dianion. This spatial distribution of HOMO suggests that the most loosely bound electron is detached along the direction perpendicular to the nucleobase. When combined with the previous results this work makes complete the depiction of basic building blocks of DNA at the molecular level.

Yuan, Qinqin↗

Solar Energetic Proton Access to the Inner Magnetosphere During the September 7–8, 2017 Event

Here, the access of solar energetic protons into the inner magnetosphere on September 7–8, 2017 is investigated by following reversed proton trajectories to compute the proton cutoff energy using the Dartmouth geomagnetic cutoff code (Kress et al., 2010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009sw000488). The cutoff energies for protons coming from the west and east direction, the minimum and maximum cutoff energy respectively, are calculated every 5 min along the orbit of Van Allen Probes using TS07 and the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) MHD magnetic field model. The result shows that the cutoff energy increases significantly as the radial distance decreases, and that the cutoff energy decreases with the building up of the ring current during magnetic storms. Solar wind dynamic pressure also affects cutoff suppression (Kress et al., 2004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003gl018599). The LFM-RCM model shows stronger suppression of cutoff energy than TS07 during strong solar wind driving conditions. The simulation result is compared with proton flux measurements, showing consistent variation of the cutoff location during the September 7–8, 2017 geomagnetic storm.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Abundant phosphorus expected for possible life in Enceladus’s ocean

Saturn’s moon Enceladus has a potentially habitable subsurface water ocean that contains canonical building blocks of life (organic and inorganic carbon, ammonia, possibly hydro-gen sulfide) and chemical energy (disequilibria for methanogenesis). However, its habit-ability could be strongly affected by the unknown availability of phosphorus (P). Here, we perform thermodynamic and kinetic modeling that simulates P geochemistry based on recent insights into the geochemistry of the ocean–seafloor system on Enceladus. We find that aqueous P should predominantly exist as orthophosphate (e.g., HPO422), and total dissolved inorganic P could reach 1027to 1022mol/kg H2O, generally increasing with lower pH and higher dissolved CO2, but also depending upon dissolved ammonia and silica. Levels are much higher than<10210mol/kg H2Ofrompreviousestimatesand close to or higher than∼1026mol/kg H2O in modern Earth seawater. The high P concentration is primarily ascribed to a high (bi)carbonate concentration, which decreases the concentrations of multivalent cations via carbonate mineral formation, allowing phosphate to accumulate. Kinetic modeling of phosphate mineral dissolution suggests that geologically rapid release of P from seafloor weathering of a chondritic rocky core could supply millimoles of total dissolved P per kilogram of H2Owithin105y, much less than the likely age of Enceladus’s ocean (108to 109y). These results provide further evidence of habitable ocean conditions and show that any oceanic life would not be inhibited by low P availability.

Enceladus ocean↗

Lightweight Thrust Chamber Assemblies using Multi-Alloy Additive Manufacturing and Composite Overwrap

Additive Manufacturing (AM) has brought significant design and fabrication opportunities for complex components with internal features such as liquid rocket engine thrust chambers not previously possible. This technology allows for significant cost savings and schedule reductions in addition to new performance optimization through weight reduction and increased margins. Specific to regeneratively-cooled combustion chambers and nozzles for liquid rocket engines, additive manufacturing offers the ability to form the complex internal coolant channels and the closeout of the channels to contain the high pressure liquid propellants with a single operation. Much of additive manufacturing development has focused on monolithic alloys using Laser Powder Bed Fusion (L-PBF), which do not allow for complete optimization of the structure. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) completed feasibility of an AM bimetallic L-PBF GRCop-84 copper-alloy combustion chamber with an AM electron beam freeform Inconel 625 structural jacket under the Low Cost Upper Stage Propulsion (LCUSP) Project. A follow-on project called Rapid Analysis and Manufacturing Propulsion Technology (RAMPT) is under development to further expand large-scale multi-alloy thrust chambers while maturing composite overwrap technology for significant weight savings opportunities. The RAMPT project has three primary objectives: 1) Advancing blown powder Directed Energy Deposition (DED) to fabricate integral-channel large scale nozzles, 2) Develop composite overwrap technology to reduce weight and provide structural capability for thrust chamber assemblies, and 3) Develop bimetallic and multi-metallic additively manufactured radial and axial joints to optimize material performance. In addition to these primary manufacturing developments, analytical modeling efforts compliment the process development to simulate the AM processes to reduce build failures and distortions. The RAMPT project is also maturing the supply chain for various manufacturing processes described above in addition to L-PBF of GRCop-42. This paper will present an overview of the RAMPT project, the process development and hardware progress to date, material and hot-fire testing results, along with future developments.

Additive Manufacturing↗

Driving forces for particle-based crystallization: From experiments to theory and simulations

The multi-step crystallization processes involving the formation of stable building blocks that subsequently assemble into a crystal are ubiquitous in mineral formation and biomineralization and are particularly attractive in materials synthesis. Utilizing these pathways offers the approach to overcoming the restrictions on the expression of various crystal faces imposed by the interfacial energy during monomer-by-monomer growth to unlock the breadth of architectures with unique properties. Further, controlling particle-based crystallization proved challenging despite its promise due to the complex interdependence of interfacial forces and their non-linear dependence on synthesis parameters. Here, the status of the development of state-of-the-art approaches to measuring interparticle forces and predictive theoretical models of particle-based crystallization are reviewed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Effective Kitchen Ventilation for Healthy Zero Net Energy Homes with Natural Gas

Past studies indicate that kitchen ventilation that minimally complies with California’s Residential Building Code is inadequate at controlling combustion pollutants from natural gas burners and particulate matter produced during cooking. Effectiveness is further limited by misperceptions that kitchen ventilation is infrequently needed. This project developed the technical basis for updating kitchen ventilation requirements to protect health in new California homes, especially in smaller homes common among low-income renters. Tasks included (1) a field study of ventilation equipment performance and indoor air quality in 23 low-income apartments at four sites; (2) analysis of range hood use related to cooking time and household parameters using data from 54 houses and 17 low-income apartments; (3)a measurement-based study to quantify performance of over-the-range microwave ovens with integrated exhaust fans;and (4) pollutant exposure simulations to inform capture efficiency standards.The field study found operational deficiencies with mechanical ventilation systems in a substantial fraction of low-income apartments that affected performance, resulting in higher exposures to pollutants generated indoors. Using gas cooking burners produced high short-term and weekly time-averaged nitrogen dioxide in apartments.Range hoods were used more frequently with cooking in houses (36percent) than apartments (28percent); use increased with overall cooking frequency in a home and with duration of cooktop but not oven events; actual use was correlated to, but lower than,self-reported use;and use was more frequent in houses when cooking generated any fine particulate matter (PM2.5)or when high PM2.5resulted from cooking in apartments. Performance of over-the-range microwaves with integrated exhaust fans was similar to that of range hoods of comparable price. Simulation analysis found that performance standards need to be updated to ensure that kitchen exhaust ventilation adequately protects for substantial cooking in new California residences.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Design and performance evaluation of a dual-circuit thermal energy storage module for air conditioners

We present experimental results and a validated numerical model of a dual-circuit phase-change thermal energy storage module for air conditioners. The module incorporates a phase-change material encapsulated in compressed expanded natural graphite foam. We used n-tetradecane as the PCM with a transition temperature (~4.5 °C) suitable for air-conditioning applications. Heat exchange to and from the module is accomplished through two fluid loops operating as a heat source and sink embedded inside multiple slabs of the composite material. This dual-circuit design enables easier integration with air-conditioning equipment and provides enhanced flexibility in system operation as compared to the state-of-the-art thermal storage systems. When integrated with an air-conditioner, this design will enable peak-load shaving and enhances operational efficiency. The thermal storage device was designed for a nominal storage capacity of ~ 3.5 kWh. We evaluated the heat transfer and energy storage performance of this device using standalone heat transfer experiments to estimate key thermal resistances and identify design improvements before integration with an air conditioner. The numerical model of the heat exchanger uses a combination of discretized and lumped parameter approaches to maintain a balance between accuracy and computational expense. Our analyses show that the geometric features and integration of fluid tubes are key contributors to the thermal contact resistance between the fluid and the thermal storage material, and consequently, to the overall performance of the thermal storage module. Our standalone experiments also identified important operating scenarios in which this thermal storage module can be used for air-conditioning in buildings.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

When Do Efficiency and Demand Flexibility Go Hand-in-hand?

Utilities have been experimenting with integrated demand side management (IDSM) programs since the 2000s. The potential benefits of improved program cost-effectiveness and customer engagement from combining energy efficiency (EE), demand flexibility (DF), and other distributed energy resources into an integrated customer offering have been recognized although there are several known regulatory and program administrative challenges. In addition, as buildings adopt EE measures, the baseline load profile change generally reduces the potential load that can be shed or shifted. This has been a significant technical barrier for customers and program implementers. However, it is a myth that EE always reduces DF. Load change from EE can be time-varying. Therefore, whether EE improves or reduces DF should be evaluated on an individual measure basis accounting for weather dependencies and interactions. For IDSM program design purpose, it is useful to understand how common EE features influence DF and the underlying building physics. In this paper, we use parametric simulations of a prototype medium office building to evaluate how various EE features influence DF, measured by a “demand decrease intensity” (W/ft2) metric. These EE features cover envelope characteristics, internal loads, and airside HVAC system. The parametric analysis shows that some efficient HVAC control measures will increase DF but not the traditional building envelope, lighting, and ventilation-related efficiency measures. These findings contribute to the technical basis for achieving enhanced energy benefits by packaging appropriate HVAC control measures in IDSM program design. Program developers should further validate these results in targeted pilot projects.

Yu, Lili↗

Heat Pumps with Phase Change Thermal Storage: Flexible, Efficient, and Electrification Friendly

As we continue to electrify space- and water-heating, the electricity demand profile of many buildings will change significantly, and periods of high electricity demand will likely not align with renewable energy generation. We expect electricity demands will increase substantially in the winter, annual maximum electricity demands will increase, and more regions will experience annual peak electrical demands – and higher wholesale electricity prices – in the winter. This is especially important for cold climates where 60% of site energy use in buildings is for heating, and where heat pumps perform least efficiently. This paper focuses on one promising solution among the many paths to electrification: the use of phase change materials (PCM) for compact low-cost thermal energy storage (TES). We present the design and simulation of a combi heat pump and phase change thermal storage system used for space- and water-heating in a multifamily residence in a cold climate. To assess the benefits of this technology, we compare its annual performance to that of a current state-of-the-art air-to-air heat pump and separate heat pump water heater. Simulation results for IECC Climate Zone 6A reveal that the combi heat pump with phase change thermal storage can reduce the design size for heat pumps by 40-60%, reduce maximum electric demand by 30-50%, reduce electricity use during 4-12-hour load shed periods by 50%, and avoid the need for auxiliary electric resistance for both space- and water-heating. Tariff structures are highly varied between different utilities and currently reflect higher wholesale market prices for electricity during summer days. Consequently, although this system design provides large electric demand reductions during hypothetical 4-12-hour load shed periods, it does not provide energy cost reductions with current winter residential time-of-use tariffs.

Helmns, Dre↗

Development and Validation of a Latent Thermal Energy Storage Model Using Modelica

An abundance of research has been performed to understand the physics of latent thermal energy storage with phase change material. Some analytical and numerical findings have been validated by experiments, but there are few free and open-source models available to the general public for use in systems simulation and analysis. The Modelica programming language is a good avenue to make such models available, because it is object-oriented, equation-based, declarative, and acausal. These characteristics have enabling the creation of component model libraries that can be used to build larger system simulations for design analysis. The authors have previously developed a numerical framework to model phase change thermal storage and have validated model predictions with experiments. The objectives of this paper are to describe the transfer of the numerical framework to an implementation in a Modelica component model and to validate the Modelica model with data from the experiment and the original numerical framework.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Smarter building start – A distributed solution

A significant focus of research and new technologies for reducing energy use in buildings is on operating the systems more efficiently during the times when the systems are active. However, there is a large potential for energy savings in determining the periods when the systems should or should not be active. This scheduling aspect of operation is often overlooked even though relatively simple solutions can unlock substantial energy savings. In this paper we describe a smart building start (SBS) algorithm that considers multiple zones in a building to determine individual schedules for room controllers as well as the central systems based on solving a simple optimization problem. Application of the SBS algorithm to multiple interconnected systems enables a staggered start-up that minimizes peak loads and also ensures comfort is within a target range with minimal system run time. The SBS algorithm extends the capability of traditional optimal start and is designed to be simple to deploy and robust. Simulation results as well as results from tests in a real building with a VAV system are presented. The presented algorithm is applicable to any type of building with a zonal or multi-zone HVAC system. To function, it needs to be able to change setpoints in rooms and monitor room temperatures, as well as, if desired, turn the central system on or off.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Surrogate model evaluation and building energy benchmarking for commercial buildings

Building energy consumption benchmarking involves challenges associated with various energy patterns for different building types; heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system types; and climates. Given significant variation in energy use patterns, accurate prediction of long-term energy use using surrogate models remains challenging. Multiple linear regression (MLR) is commonly used for building energy benchmarking because of its simple structure; however, it lacks accuracy compared to other black-box models. Although many studies have compared surrogate models and offer guidance on model selection based on metrics, they do not provide detailed analysis on improving the surrogate model accuracy. In this paper, we implement a surrogate model using polynomial ridge regression (i.e., MLR with interaction terms combined with ridge regularization) for small office and retail strip mall buildings across six HVAC system types and all climate zones, for electricity and natural gas in baseline and proposed scenarios. A simulation workflow is developed using OpenStudio TM /EnergyPlus TM to generate simulation data using measures over a wide range of efficiency inputs. Enhancements based on statistical insights are used for improving the model accuracy using filters, input transformations, and change points. Surrogate models achieved average coefficient of variation of the root mean squared error (CVRMSE) values of 2.17, 1.06, 2.05, and 3.26 for proposed electricity, proposed natural gas, baseline electricity, and baseline natural gas, respectively, with enhancements reducing CVRMSE by an average of 14.9% across all combinations. We provide model interpretation via Shapley additive explanations to determine which input variables most influence energy consumption and provide supportive arguments for enhancements.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗