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At least 775 records · Page 43

Dual Heat Pulse, Dual Layer Thermal Protection System Sizing Analysis and Trade Studies for Human Mars Entry Descent and Landing

NASA has been recently updating design reference missions for the human exploration of Mars and evaluating the technology investments required to do so. The first of these started in January 2007 and developed the Mars Design Reference Architecture 5.0 (DRA5). As part of DRA5, Thermal Protection System (TPS) sizing analysis was performed on a mid L/D rigid aeroshell undergoing a dual heat pulse (aerocapture and atmospheric entry) trajectory. The DRA5 TPS subteam determined that using traditional monolithic ablator systems would be mass expensive. They proposed a new dual-layer TPS concept utilizing an ablator atop a low thermal conductivity insulative substrate to address the issue. Using existing thermal response models for an ablator and insulative tile, preliminary hand analysis of the dual layer concept at a few key heating points indicated that the concept showed potential to reduce TPS masses and warranted further study. In FY09, the followon Entry, Descent and Landing Systems Analysis (EDL-SA) project continued by focusing on Exploration-class cargo or crewed missions requiring 10 to 50 metric tons of landed payload. The TPS subteam advanced the preliminary dual-layer TPS analysis by developing a new process and updated TPS sizing code to rapidly evaluate mass-optimized, full body sizing for a dual layer TPS that is capable of dual heat pulse performance. This paper describes the process and presents the results of the EDL-SA FY09 dual-layer TPS analyses on the rigid mid L/D aeroshell. Additionally, several trade studies were conducted with the sizing code to evaluate the impact of various design factors, assumptions and margins.

McGuire, Mary Kathleen↗

The NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) Science Data Segment (SDS) Data Depository and Distribution Element (SD3E) System Architecture

The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS), the U.S. Government's future low-Earth orbiting satellite system, will monitor global weather and environmental conditions. Serving as a risk reduction for NPOESS, the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) will provide remotely sensed atmospheric, land, ocean, ozone, and sounder data that will serve the meteorological and global climate change scientific communities. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) NPP Science Data Segment's (SDS) primary role is to independently assess the quality of the NPP science and environmental data records for their ability to support climate research. The SDS is composed of nine elements; an input element that receives data from the operational agencies and acts as a buffer, a calibration analysis element, five elements devoted to measurement based quality assessment, an element used to test algorithmic improvements, and an element that provides overall science direction. Each element requires a set of sensor specific science data products for their evaluation. There are four NPP sensors that will be flown on the NPP observatory. They are the Visible Infrared Imagining Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), the Cross-Track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), and the Ozone Mapper/Profiler Suite (OMPS). It is estimated that these four sensors combined will make daily data requests for approximately six terabytes of NPP science products from the operational data providers. As a result, issues associated with duplicate data requests, data transfers of large volumes of diverse products, and data transfer failures raised concerns with respect to the network traffic and bandwidth consumption. Therefore, a central data broker system for receiving and buffering data requests and data products for the SDS was developed. The data element for this system is called the SDS Data Depository and Distribution Element (SD3E). It supports science mission data assessment by assuring the timely and validated acquisition and subsequent transfer of the NPP Science Mission data to the SDS Elements and NPP Science Team. The six science elements that interface with the SD3E span across the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), and the University of Wisconsin. As the primary communication vehicle for the science elements and science team, the SD3E has an interface to the operational data providers: National Environment Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) Interface Data Processing System (IDPS) and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship system (CLASS) Archive Data System (ADS), that are responsible for product generation and archive and distribution respectively. The SD3E is designed to be a semi-customizable and semi-automated system. This system is designed to provide flexibility and ease of use for the science users in accessing the latest data products by creating a rolling data cache that temporarily stores the products locally before transferring the data to the SDS Measurement based elements for the land, ocean, atmosphere, sounder, and ozone. This paper describes the design and architecture of one of the nine SDS elements, the SD3E, and how this system has provided a mechanism for efficient data exchange, how it has helped in alleviating some of the network traffic and usage, and how it has contributed to reducing operational costs.

Ho, Evelyn L.↗

Analysis of Transformer Magnetizing Reactance Using Describing Function in Direct Power Control of Back-to-Back Modular Multilevel Converter with Advanced Grid Support

This paper presents a Port Controlled Hamiltonian based direct power control architecture for a back-to-back modular multilevel converter system connecting two ac sources at different frequencies. The system features advanced grid support functionalities based on IEEE 1547-2018, implemented on the inverter side. The rectifier side controller ensures reference following for active and/or reactive powers and maintains the commanded dc bus voltage. The inverter side controller ensures power command following for active and reactive powers.The proposed control architecture is designed to suppress second harmonic oscillations in powers during unbalanced grid voltage sags by dynamically adjusting the currents on each ac side. This also ensures effective elimination of any second harmonic oscillations in the equivalent dc bus voltage. Validation is performed on an OPAL-RT real-time platform with case studies on unbalanced and balanced sags, demonstrating the controller's effectiveness during real time implementation. A reduced-scale laboratory prototype further verifies these case studies, with experimental results for balanced sags due to grid simulator limitations. The results confirm the robustness and efficiency of the proposed control strategy in ensuring stable and reliable operation under various grid conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An Innovative Very Low Thermal Power Waste Heat Recovery System for Thermal Control of Deep Space Missions: A Thermal Flask in Space

Future missions to deep space, such as those to the outer planets (Jupiter, Saturn, etc.), which would rely on solar photovoltaic power, would need extremely large solar arrays to produce sufficient power for their operations because solar intensity is so low at those locations. Hence any additional power that would be needed for thermal control is extremely limited. Previous deep space missions like Juno (to Jupiter) required almost 200 W of electrical power for thermal control. This is prohibitively large for many future mission concepts, and leads to them needing very large solar arrays. For Saturn, where the solar flux is 1/4th the flux at Jupiter, this would entail an extremely large increase in the solar array size to accommodate the need for thermal survival power, which would be prohibitively large in size and mass, and very expensive. Hence there is a need to come up with a thermal architecture and design options that would not need such prohibitively large thermal power levels. One solution relies on harvesting the pre-existing waste heat from all the heat dissipation that would be present from operation of electronics, instruments, etc. for their own functionality. For example, for a generic Saturn mission, the various electronics would already dissipate about 200 Watts of heat that is simply "thrown away" to space from the spacecraft surfaces. The amount of thermal power that would be required for the safe thermal control of components within the spacecraft in deep space would be roughly of this magnitude for this class of spacecraft. So it makes good sense to try to harvest the waste heat and employ it to maintain the temperatures of all the components within their allowable limits. In particular, propulsion systems typically need to be kept above their freezing limits, around room temperature (15 C). Electronics needs to be kept typically above -40 C and batteries above -20 C. The next question becomes how to harvest this waste heat and direct it to the components that would need it for their survival. The proposed system utilizes a mechanically pumped, single phase fluid loop to pick up the waste heat from components attached to this loop's tubing and then directed to a thermal flask that has tubing attached to it. The thermal flask is cylindrically shaped and contains essentially all systems and components in the spacecraft within it, with the exception of the solar array, antennae, thrusters and various apertures of instruments, etc. to allow them an unobstructed view of space. Waste heat from the heat-dissipating components warms up the fluid and is carried to the flask surface and deposited on it via the fluid loop's flow. The entire flask is covered with Multi-Layered Insulation (MLI) to minimize the heat loss from the flask and allow it to remain warm. Hence the flask essentially creates a thermal environment within which the spacecraft components reside. The temperature of the components within the flask is then essentially the same as the temperature of the flask. This approach could be a very enabling feature for deep space missions. This paper describes the approach utilized for this thermal architecture, along with its mechanical and implementation aspects. Additionally it will compare and contrast this approach with the more conventional solutions utilized earlier.

Bhandari, Pradeep↗

A Verification Framework for Runtime Assurance of Autonomous UAS

Runtime Assurance (RTA) is a design-time architecture for safety-critical systems where an internal monitor acts upon detecting a violation of a property. The simplex architecture is an instance of RTA, where the action taken is to hand control of the overall system to a trusted controller when an untrusted one violates a safety property. Simplex RTA is emerging as a method for allowing AI/ML and other unverified software to be integrated into safety-critical applications like aircraft. To this end, the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) and NASA have each published guidelines on the use of RTA in such systems. In the simplex RTA framework, a system has an advanced controller (AC) and a reversionary controller (RC). The system is allowed to operate with the AC until a runtime monitor detects that some property has been violated and then the RC takes over. Assuming that the sample rate of the monitor will detect improper functioning with enough time for the RC to correct the impending problem, and that the RC is trusted, the system will operate as intended. This use of the simplex RTA framework can allow for the integration of untrusted, but possibly more performant, controllers in a safe way. This paper presents a formalization of a simplex RTA framework in the Prototype Verification System (PVS) theorem prover using an embedding of differential dynamic logic (DDL) called Plaidypvs. A novel feature of this framework is that it can be instantiated at different levels of abstraction. This feature allows for the formal verification of a system with an untrusted black box component, such as an AI/ML controller. This paper does not address the many difficulties in deploying RTA in an industrial-level system. Instead, the focus is on the formal verification of the simplex RTA framework in the language of hybrid programs. Hybrid programs are programs that include both discrete and continuous dynamics and can be used to model complex cyber-physical systems. Plaidypvs is a tool that enables formalization of hybrid programs in the PVS theorem prover. Plaidypvs enables the verification of the general simplex RTA framework and then, by specializing some components of the hybrid program, verifying instances of the framework while treating the untrusted component as a black box. A selection of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) operations are shown as instances of the general RTA framework in PVS. This offers the benefit of design time verification of relevant safety properties to the system, and it also gives requirements on the sample rate of sensors that determine the time interval in which the ‘switch’ property of the RTA framework is checked.

PVS↗

Supramolecular Tuning Enables Selective Oxygen Reduction Catalyzed by Cobalt Porphyrins for Direct Electrosynthesis of Hydrogen Peroxide

Abstract We report a supramolecular strategy for promoting the selective reduction of O 2 for direct electrosynthesis of H 2 O 2 . We utilized cobalt tetraphenylporphyrin (Co‐TPP), an oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) catalyst with highly variable product selectivity, as a building block to assemble the permanently porous supramolecular cage Co‐PB‐1(6) bearing six Co‐TPP subunits connected through twenty‐four imine bonds. Reduction of these imine linkers to amines yields the more flexible cage Co‐rPB‐1(6). Both Co‐PB‐1(6) and Co‐rPB‐1(6) cages produce 90–100 % H 2 O 2 from electrochemical ORR catalysis in neutral pH water, whereas the Co‐TPP monomer gives a 50 % mixture of H 2 O 2 and H 2 O. Bimolecular pathways have been implicated in facilitating H 2 O formation, therefore, we attribute this high H 2 O 2 selectivity to site isolation of the discrete molecular units in each supramolecule. The ability to control reaction selectivity in supramolecular structures beyond traditional host–guest interactions offers new opportunities for designing such architectures for a broader range of catalytic applications.

Smith, Peter T.↗

Supramolecular Tuning Enables Selective Oxygen Reduction Catalyzed by Cobalt Porphyrins for Direct Electrosynthesis of Hydrogen Peroxide

Abstract We report a supramolecular strategy for promoting the selective reduction of O 2 for direct electrosynthesis of H 2 O 2 . We utilized cobalt tetraphenylporphyrin (Co‐TPP), an oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) catalyst with highly variable product selectivity, as a building block to assemble the permanently porous supramolecular cage Co‐PB‐1(6) bearing six Co‐TPP subunits connected through twenty‐four imine bonds. Reduction of these imine linkers to amines yields the more flexible cage Co‐rPB‐1(6). Both Co‐PB‐1(6) and Co‐rPB‐1(6) cages produce 90–100 % H 2 O 2 from electrochemical ORR catalysis in neutral pH water, whereas the Co‐TPP monomer gives a 50 % mixture of H 2 O 2 and H 2 O. Bimolecular pathways have been implicated in facilitating H 2 O formation, therefore, we attribute this high H 2 O 2 selectivity to site isolation of the discrete molecular units in each supramolecule. The ability to control reaction selectivity in supramolecular structures beyond traditional host–guest interactions offers new opportunities for designing such architectures for a broader range of catalytic applications.

Smith, Peter T.↗

Functionalizing magnet additive manufacturing with in-situ magnetic field source

Additive manufacturing via 3-D printing technologies have become a frontier in materials research, including its application in the development and recycling of permanent magnets. This work addresses the opportunity to integrate magnetic field sources into 3-D printing process in order to enable printing, alignment of anisotropic permanent magnets or magnetizing of magnetic filler materials, without requiring further processing. Specifically, a nonaxisymmetric electromagnet-type field source architecture was designed, modelled, constructed, installed to a fused filament commercial 3-D printer, and tested. The testing was performed by applying magnetic field while printing composite anisotropic Nd-Fe-B + Sm-Fe-N powders bonded in Nylon12 (65 vol.%) and recycled Sm-Co powder bonded in PLA (15 vol.%). Magnetic characterization indicated that the degree-of-alignment of the magnet powders increased both with alignment field strength (controlled by the electric current applied to the magnetizing system) and the printing temperature. Both coercivity and remanence were found to be strongly dependent on the degree-of-alignment, except for printing performed below but near the Curie temperature of Nd-Fe-B (310 ° C). At applied field of 0.15 kOe, Sm-Co and hybrid Nd-Fe-B/Sm-Fe-N printed samples showed degrees-of-alignment of 83 % and 65 %, respectively. The variations in coercivity were consistent with previous observations in bonded magnet materials. This work verifies that integration of magnetic field sources into 3-D printing processes will result in magnetic alignment of particles while ensuring that other advantages of 3-D printing are retained.

3-D printing↗

Flow field design for zero-gap microbial electrolysis cells using synthetic and real wastewater

Increasing performance in microbial electrolysis cells (MECs) requires the development of optimized reactor configurations with minimal internal resistance and capable to operate with real wastewater. Here, the impact of two different flow fields (serpentine and circular) was examined in zero-gap MECs with synthetic and real wastewaters. The serpentine flow field enabled a uniform distribution of the electrolyte in the anode chamber, resulting in larger current densities at lower flow rates compared to the circular flow field. Electrochemical tests using synthetic media with high buffer capacity revealed more stable and higher performance with the serpentine flow field compared to the circular flow path, producing larger current density (23.7 ± 0.8 A/m 2 vs 21.9 ± 5.6 A/m 2 ), hydrogen production rate (75.8 ± 4.1 L/L-d vs 54.3 ± 2.4 L/L-d), cathodic coulombic efficiency (>91 % vs >50 %), and an overall lower internal resistance (12.5 ± 0.5 mΩm 2 vs 14.8 ± 3.7 mΩm 2 ). Continuous operation for over 30 days with real wastewater indicated higher tolerance of the MECs with serpentine flow field toward media with large concentration of suspended solids, producing a current density of 5.4 ± 1.1 A/m 2 and a hydrogen production rate of 22.2 ± 6.2 L/L-d. Furthermore, the results presented here underscore the importance of reactor design and architecture in optimizing MEC performance for hydrogen production from liquid wastes.

flow path↗

A data-driven method for modelling dissipation rates in stratified turbulence

We present a deep probabilistic convolutional neural network (PCNN) model for predicting local values of small-scale mixing properties in stratified turbulent flows, namely the dissipation rates of turbulent kinetic energy and density variance, $\varepsilon$ and $\chi$ . Inputs to the PCNN are vertical columns of velocity and density gradients, motivated by data typically available from microstructure profilers in the ocean. The architecture is designed to enable the model to capture several characteristic features of stratified turbulence, in particular the dependence of small-scale isotropy on the buoyancy Reynolds number $Re_b:=\varepsilon /(\nu N^2)$ , where $\nu$ is the kinematic viscosity and $N$ is the background buoyancy frequency, the correlation between suitably locally averaged density gradients and turbulence intensity and the importance of capturing the tails of the probability distribution functions of values of dissipation. Empirically modified versions of commonly used isotropic models for $\varepsilon$ and $\chi$ that depend only on vertical derivatives of density and velocity are proposed based on the asymptotic regimes $Re_b\ll 1$ and $Re_b\gg 1$ , and serve as an instructive benchmark for comparison with the data-driven approach. When trained and tested on a simulation of stratified decaying turbulence which accesses a range of turbulent regimes (associated with differing values of $Re_b$ ), the PCNN outperforms assumptions of isotropy significantly as $Re_b$ decreases, and additionally demonstrates improvements over the fitted empirical models. A differential sensitivity analysis of the PCNN facilitates a comparison with the theoretical models and provides a physical interpretation of the features enabling it to make improved predictions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Tunable Atomic Layer Deposition into Ultra-High-Aspect-Ratio (>60000:1) Aerogel Monoliths Enabled by Transport Modeling

Atomic layer deposition (ALD) modification of ultra-high-aspect-ratio structures (>10,000:1) is a powerful platform with applications in catalysis, filtration, and energy conversion. However, the deposition of conformal and tunable ALD coatings at these aspect ratios remains challenging, resulting in empirical tradeoffs between precursor utilization and reaction time. Here, we demonstrate tunable control of the ALD infiltration depth into an aerogel monolith (AM) and develop a reaction-diffusion model to accurately describe the coating process. Specifically, we investigate the ALD exposure time and precursor dose needed to conformally coat a silica AM with pore sizes of ~20 nm, a monolith thickness of ~2.5 mm, and aspect ratios exceeding 60,000:1. We demonstrate complete infiltration into the AM, which is quantified by elemental mapping. A reaction-diffusion model is developed, which accounts for multiple doses and precursor depletion in the ALD chamber during an exposure step. The experimentally validated model enables the prediction and tuning of infiltration depth into a tortuous, high-aspect-ratio structure such as an AM, allowing for the synthesis of rationally designed material architectures. Additionally, the model allows for co-optimization of the total deposition time and percentage of unreacted precursor, which are important for the manufacturability and sustainability of ALD processing. Lastly, we demonstrate that ultra-thin ALD Al 2 O 3 coatings can be used to stabilize silica AMs against structural degradation under high-temperature annealing conditions (700-800 °C), by limiting changes in surface area and monolith volume. As a result, this improved high-temperature stability has implications for numerous aerogel applications, including catalysis and thermal insulation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Volumetric Shaping of Nanoparticle-DNA Crystals by Light-Induced Milling

DNA-programmable self-assembly enables the formation of nanoparticle crystals with controlled lattice symmetry. While this approach offers the formation of complexly ordered nanostructures for optical, mechanical, and biological applications, a mesoscale control over such nanomaterials is limited. Directing the material formation process through the assembly pathway or external fields allows for modulating crystal morphology, but achieving arbitrary morphology remains challenging. Here, we present a photothermal method for shaping 3D DNA-programmable crystals of gold nanoparticles. Through local heating of nanoparticles due to plasmonic light absorption, we induce targeted volumetric dissolution of specifically defined crystal areas with micron-scale accuracy. This technique effectively prescribes crystal shaping and creates arbitrarily shaped voids within crystals. We further investigate both computationally and experimentally the key factors governing volumetric material subtraction. The developed automated light-milling platform enables the fabrication of nanomaterials exhibiting both DNA-programmable nanoscale order and custom-designed mesoscale architecture.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Hydrogen from Sunlight and Water: A Side-by-Side Comparison between Photoelectrochemical and Solar Thermochemical Water-Splitting

Photoelectrochemical (PEC) and solar thermochemical (STCH) water-splitting represent two promising pathways for direct solar hydrogen generation. PEC water-splitting integrates multiple functional materials and utilizes energetic electrons and holes generated from sunlight to produce hydrogen and oxygen in two half-reactions, while STCH water-splitting couples a series of consecutive chemical reactions and uses absorbed heat from sunlight to generate hydrogen and oxygen in two full reactions. In this Focus Review, the basic operating principles, sunlight utilization, device architecture, reactor design, instantaneous and annually averaged solar-to-hydrogen (STH) conversion efficiency, and the operating conditions and constraints of both pathways are compared. A side-by-side comparison addresses some common sources of confusion and misinterpretation, especially in the evaluation of STH conversion efficiencies, and reveals distinct features and challenges in both PEC and STCH technologies. Furthermore, this Focus Review also addresses materials and device challenges in PEC and STCH for cost-competitive hydrogen generation.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Investigating the Role of Polymer Architecture in Poly(methyl methacrylate) Depolymerization

Advanced architectures in polymers have garnered traction within the last two decades due to their distinct and tunable properties compared to linear analogs. However, the effects of architecture on nascent polymethacrylate depolymerization strategies remain underexplored. Herein, we investigate the depolymerization behavior of poly(methacrylate)-based star copolymers synthesized via a core-first approach. By incorporating either labile chain-end or pendent-group triggers, we demonstrate the first direct comparison of bulk depolymerization behaviors in star versus linear methacrylate copolymers under matched conditions. While pendent-triggered systems required higher loadings of N-(methacryloxy)phthalimide methacrylate (PhthMA) to achieve similar mass loss compared to linear copolymers, chain-end-initiated depolymerization showed enhanced efficiency of monomer liberation in the star topology. Furthermore, these findings highlight the importance of considering macromolecular architecture in designing sustainable polymers and provide actionable guidelines for installing depolymerization triggers based on polymer topology.

Copolymers↗

Co-introduction of precipitate hardening and TRIP in a TWIP high-entropy alloy using friction stir alloying

Tuning deformation mechanisms is imperative to overcome the well-known strength-ductility paradigm. Twinning-induced plasticity (TWIP), transformation-induced plasticity (TRIP) and precipitate hardening have been investigated separately and have been altered to achieve exceptional strength or ductility in several alloy systems. In this study, we use a novel solid-state alloying method—friction stir alloying (FSA)—to tune the microstructure, and a composition of a TWIP high-entropy alloy by adding Ti, and thus activating site-specific deformation mechanisms that occur concomitantly in a single alloy. During the FSA process, grains of the as-cast face-centered cubic matrix were refined by high-temperature severe plastic deformation and, subsequently, a new alloy composition was obtained by dissolving Ti into the matrix. After annealing the FSA specimen at 900 °C, hard Ni–Ti rich precipitates formed to strengthen the alloy. An additional result was a Ni-depleted region in the vicinity of newly-formed precipitates. The reduction in Ni locally reduced the stacking fault energy, thus inducing TRIP-based deformation while the remaining matrix still deformed as a result of TWIP. Our current approach presents a novel microstructural architecture to design alloys, an approach that combines and optimizes local compositions such that multiple deformation mechanisms can be activated to enhance engineering properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Lab-Scale Cable-Driven Parallel Robot Prototype for Automated Prefabricated Component Manipulation

This paper presents the design and evaluation of a lab-scale cable-driven parallel robot (CDPR) developed as a flexible platform for automated installation of prefabricated components onto exterior building envelopes. Traditional manual installation methods for prefabricated components, which depend on scaffolding, cranes, cherry pickers, and verbal coordination, are not only labor-intensive and error-prone but also face significant limitations in dense urban environments due to site access constraints. To address these challenges, we developed a lab-scale CDPR platform capable of autonomously transporting building envelope components from a designated pickup zone to their target installation location, minimizing the need for human intervention. This study describes the system’s mechanical design, actuation architecture, real-time feedback system, and control strategy of the CDPR, and evaluates its performance in a laboratory environment. The robot’s actuation system uses torque control for end-effector manipulation. The robot’s real-time pose feedback comes from a construction-grade total station and a wireless inertial measurement unit (IMU), which together support precise end-effector control. Experimental results demonstrate the successful integration of the hardware, sensing, state estimation, and control subsystems. Preliminary tests showed that our lab-scale prototype can position the end effector with an error of less than 3 mm, which is a level of precision not previously achieved by existing CDPRs in construction applications. The key findings are twofold: (1) torque-only control is necessary but not sufficient for minimizing final pose error, and (2) incorporating real-time pose feedback can achieve the desired placement accuracy.

Liu, Yifang [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗

CovTransformer: A transformer model for SARS-CoV-2 lineage frequency forecasting

With hundreds of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the global population, there is an ongoing need for predicting and forecasting lineage frequencies and thus identifying rapidly expanding lineages. Accurate prediction would allow for more focused experimental efforts to understand pathogenicity of future dominating lineages and characterize the extent of their immune escape. Here, we first show that the inherent noise and biases in lineage frequency data make a commonly-used regression-based approach unreliable. To address this weakness, we constructed a machine learning model for SARS-CoV-2 lineage frequency forecasting, called CovTransformer, based on the transformer architecture. We designed our model to navigate challenges such as a limited amount of data with high levels of noise and bias. We first trained and tested the model using data from the UK and the USA, and then tested the generalization ability of the model to many other countries and US states. Remarkably, the trained model makes accurate predictions two months into the future with high levels of accuracy both globally (in 31 countries with high levels of sequencing effort) and at the US-state level. Our model performed substantially better than a widely used forecasting tool, the multinomial regression model implemented in Nextstrain, demonstrating its utility in SARS-CoV-2 monitoring. Assuming a newly emerged lineage is identified and assigned, our test using retrospective data shows that our model is able to identify the dominating lineages 7 weeks in advance on average before they became dominant. Overall, our work demonstrates that transformer models represent a promising approach for SARS-CoV-2 forecasting and pandemic monitoring.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Graph neural network for neutrino physics event reconstruction

Liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) detector technology offers a wealth of high-resolution information on particle interactions, and leveraging that information to its full potential requires sophisticated automated reconstruction techniques. Here, this article describes NUGRAPH 2, a graph neural network for low-level reconstruction of simulated neutrino interactions in a LArTPC detector. Simulated neutrino interactions in the MicroBooNE detector geometry are described as heterogeneous graphs, with energy depositions on each detector plane forming nodes on planar subgraphs. The network utilizes a multihead attention message-passing mechanism to perform background filtering and semantic labeling on these graph nodes, identifying those associated with the primary physics interaction with 98.0% efficiency and labeling them according to particle type with 94.9% efficiency. The network operates directly on detector observables across multiple two-dimensional representations but utilizes a three-dimensional-context-aware mechanism to encourage consistency between these representations. Model inference takes 0.12 s / event on a CPU and 0.005 s / event batched on a GPU. This architecture is designed to be a general-purpose solution for particle reconstruction in neutrino physics, with the potential for deployment across a broad range of detector technologies, and offers a core convolution engine that can be leveraged for a variety of tasks beyond the two described in this paper.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗