Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “advanced modelling and simulation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 775 records · Page 43
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying and simulating the weather forecast uncertainty for advanced building control

Weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable despite technological advancements. Accurately quantifying and modelling this uncertainty is essential for developing and comparing advanced building controllers. In this study, we present a structured approach using a first-order autoregressive model (AR(1)) to model uncertainty in ambient temperature and global solar irradiation (GHI) forecasts. We analyzed weather data from four cities and employed Jensen–Shannon divergence (JSD) to evaluate the similarity between synthetic and actual forecast errors. The average JSD values for temperature are 0.027 (Berkeley), 0.021 (Leuven), 0.018 (Berlin), and 0.008 (Oslo), and for GHI, the average JSD values are 0.016 (Berkeley), 0.058 (Leuven), and 0.013 (Berlin). The low JSD values indicate a high similarity between the synthetic and real forecast error distributions. Further, our approach successfully generates synthetic weather forecasts that mirror the statistical properties of actual forecasts. The implementation of our method for uncertain forecast generation is being added to the BOPTEST framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Multiscale Simulation of Plasma-Surface Interfaces

We report the development of an atomistic-informed, surface-state-dependent predictive model for particle exchange in a carbon-tungsten plasma-surface interface. The predictive model uses machine learning (ML) techniques to learn the energy and angular distributions for particle exchange and rate functions for surface state evolution from molecular dynamics simulations of cumulative bombardment of tungsten by energetic carbon ions. Each predictive component is sensitive to the energy and trajectory of incident plasma species and the surface state. The surface state is represented by a set of surface state descriptors, which were derived from the atomistic surface state for each independent carbon bombardment event. These descriptors are representative of the composition and degree of amorphization of the outermost angstrom of surface material and were chosen to optimize predictive performance for particle exchange at the interface. The distributions for particle exchange (reflection/sputtering) are demonstrated to vary with each surface state descriptor, motivating the development of surface-state-dependent particle exchange models for plasma simulations. The performance of various ML methods was compared, including polynomial quantile regression, artificial neural networks, k-nearest neighbors, and random forest algorithms, with polynomial regression performing the best for interpolation and extrapolation of learned relationships. In addition to the particle exchange model, a neutral network was developed and used to identify data sufficiency throughout surface descriptor space, which will enable real-time feedback during future data production to ensure data is produced where it is most needed, and we provide commentary on improvements to the data production workflow for future endeavors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogen Dispersion Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring

Studying hydrogen dispersion is crucial for ensuring the safe and effective deployment of hydrogen as an energy carrier. This study presents a comprehensive CFD modeling framework for simulating hydrogen dispersion at a real-world hydrogen production, storage, and utilization facility. Utilizing the Hydrogen Research Facility under the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Flatirons campus, controlled hydrogen releases at 27 kg-H2/hr were simulated. The model incorporated site-specific atmospheric conditions, including hourly wind speeds and temperatures recorded between 8 AM and 8 PM from October to December 2023. To reduce computational demands, a statistical reduction technique was applied to condense the dataset to 100 representative scenarios, validated by statistical tests for wind speeds and power law coefficients. Simulations were conducted using the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations. Results demonstrated that wind speed substantially influences hydrogen dispersion, with low wind conditions forming concentrated clouds and higher wind speeds stretching the plume. Additionally, clustering analysis informed optimal sensor placement at various elevations with up to 10 sensor locations on each elevation. This framework offers a robust approach for understanding hydrogen behavior in ambient conditions and informing detection strategies.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scalability analysis of heavy-duty gas turbines using data-driven machine learning

With the increasing integration of variable renewable energy sources into power systems, the role of flexible power generation technologies like gas turbines (GT) in rapid grid balancing remains crucial. This sustained importance underscores the need for scaled and precise modeling of GT to ensure effective integration within evolving energy frameworks. While physics-driven GT models integrate thermodynamics, fluid dynamics, and combustion principles, they often rely on approximate mathematical representations to accommodate scaling that may not capture the actual complex dynamics for GTs and inertial effects associated to GTs with different ratings. In this study, a data-driven model is proposed using machine learning (ML) techniques to conduct GT scalability analysis and performance evaluation with high accuracy. The ML model, trained on data from various operating conditions and performance parameters, aims to uncover intricate relationships and patterns, resembling GT characteristics at different scales (ratings). The model is developed to capture complex system interaction and to adapt to changing operational scenarios at different capacities, providing valuable insights of power system dynamics. In this study, the real-time digital simulator platform was employed to generate training data for the ML model and assess its dynamic characteristics. The ultimate objective was to develop a detailed modeling framework based on governing equations and data-driven ML capable of predicting key performance indicators, in thermal systems such as GTs, including power output, speed, fuel consumption, and exhaust temperature under diverse operating conditions at different scales. The developed ML framework demonstrated high accuracy, with mean relative errors for GT power prediction, reference speed, exhaust temperature, and compressor pressure ratio (CPR) parameters consistently below 0.1% across typical load fluctuation scenarios. Maximum deviations were limited to approximately 0.5 K for exhaust temperature and 0.009 for CPR, underscoring the model’s ability to replicating dynamic GT behavior with high precision. The adaptability of the ML model enables its application across diverse operational conditions and its extension to other thermal systems. By leveraging advanced ML techniques, this study presents a robust and scalable modeling framework that enhances GT simulation precision, facilitating improved integration into evolving power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extreme-scale stochastic optimization and simulation via learning-enhanced decomposition and parallelization (Final Technical Report)

Stochastic optimization and simulation models ubiquitously arise in designing and operating complex service/engineering systems. They can be extreme in scale due to high-dimensional data and decisions, and can also involve decisions made sequentially in response to newly revealed data, both causing significant computational challenge. The objective of this research is to explore a unified framework that integrates machine learning with discrete optimization and risk-averse modeling, to improve the efficiency of decomposition paradigms for stochastic optimization and simulations at extreme scale. The models we consider represent a broad class of complex decision-making problems, where 0-1 or continuous decisions are made before and/or after knowing multiple sources of uncertainties that could be correlated. We will employ machine learning methods to dynamically decide and prioritize computational procedures, including cut generation, branching, and bounding of the optimal objective. Furthermore, the research will shed new lights on the traditional decomposition algorithms for extreme-scale computing. Deliverables of the research include new modeling and computational methods for advancing the state-of-the-art research in optimization and simulation, bringing many relevant risk-averse, data-driven optimization problems in practice within the range of tractability. Examples include distributed computing server scheduling and sensor deployment for monitoring critical infrastructures. Success in this effort will enable progress in solving multiple extreme-scale problems in the complex system design and operations arising from DoE missions in energy, environment, and national security.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of Precipitating Marine Stratocumulus Clouds in the E3SMv1 Atmosphere Model: A Case Study from the ARM MAGIC Field Campaign

This paper presents a process-oriented evaluation of precipitating stratocumulus and its transition to cumulus in version 1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) using comprehensive case-study observations from a field campaign of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program (ARM). The E3SMv1 single-column model (SCM) of the marine boundary layer and its low clouds and precipitation are compared to observations including subcloud drizzle retrievals from a combination of Doppler radar and lidar backscatter measurements. Additionally, the SCM is also compared to a large-eddy simulation (LES) of the same case. The combination of advanced remote sensing observations and LES is a powerful framework to evaluate the physical parameterizations of large-scale models. Given the observed large-scale environment, the E3SMv1 SCM realistically represents the evolution of clouds and boundary layer structure during the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition. The model well simulates the liquid water path and its diurnal cycle in the stratocumulus period as well as the two-layer vertical thermodynamic structure and lower cloud fraction in the transition period. E3SMv1’s success in simulating the cloud in the stratocumulus period permitted examination of its precipitation processes. Here problems were identified with E3SMv1 producing an unrealistically small subcloud precipitation fraction, an unrealistic double peak in the vertical profiles of precipitation mass, and drizzle that evaporates too close to the surface. Further model diagnostics determined that these unrealistic characteristics resulted from an overly long microphysics time step and an unrealistic parameterization of the precipitation fraction. These results imply that careful consideration of these issues is needed in order to better simulate precipitation processes in marine stratocumulus.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

SEAS Communication Engine: An Extensible, Flexible Wrapper for Co-Simulation Agents

When modeling and analyzing the power grid and other large scale systems, researchers often express scenarios as optimization problems and feed them into advanced software solvers. In order to allow multiple solvers to communicate with each other and share data from different domains, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and associated Department of Energy (DOE) labs have developed a software framework called the Hierarchical Engine for Large-scale Infrastructure Co-Simulation (HELICS). HELICS allows cosimulation via a collection of client libraries for different languages that can be called from the appropriate optimization software. However, these client libraries do not provide a higher level of abstraction beyond reading and writing data off of the shared HELICS bus. In this paper, we describe a new software library called the SEAS Communication Engine that exposes a higher-level API for running cosimulation problems. The SEAS Engine provides a class-based abstraction on top of the Python HELICS client, in order to allow users to implement their domain-specific cosimulations without needing to interact with core HELICS primitives. This will make adoption of HELICS and cosimulation in general easier, by exposing a simpler API. In the second part of the paper, we validate our library on a collection of different simulation examples, including the canonical IEEE 13 Bus Feeder. Lastly, we demonstrate using the SEAS Engine to directly call domain-specific code written in the Julia programming language. Our hope is that this will serve as a template for easily calling software in different programming languages via the SEAS Engine, thereby avoiding code duplication and complexity.

co-simulation↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Moist Physics Parameterization Based on Deep Learning

Abstract Current moist physics parameterization schemes in general circulation models (GCMs) are the main source of biases in simulated precipitation and atmospheric circulation. Recent advances in machine learning make it possible to explore data‐driven approaches to developing parameterization for moist physics processes such as convection and clouds. This study aims to develop a new moist physics parameterization scheme based on deep learning. We use a residual convolutional neural network (ResNet) for this purpose. It is trained with 1‐year simulation from a superparameterized GCM, SPCAM. An independent year of SPCAM simulation is used for evaluation. In the design of the neural network, referred to as ResCu, the moist static energy conservation during moist processes is considered. In addition, the past history of the atmospheric states, convection, and clouds is also considered. The predicted variables from the neural network are GCM grid‐scale heating and drying rates by convection and clouds, and cloud liquid and ice water contents. Precipitation is derived from predicted moisture tendency. In the independent data test, ResCu can accurately reproduce the SPCAM simulation in both time mean and temporal variance. Comparison with other neural networks demonstrates the superior performance of ResNet architecture. ResCu is further tested in a single‐column model for both continental midlatitude warm season convection and tropical monsoonal convection. In both cases, it simulates the timing and intensity of convective events well. In the prognostic test of tropical convection case, the simulated temperature and moisture biases with ResCu are smaller than those using conventional convection and cloud parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of pore fluid chemistry on the mechanical behavior of a divalent compacted bentonite, an experimental and constitutive study

Ongoing research in isolating high-level nuclear waste and spent fuel has highlighted compacted bentonite as a suitable material for engineered barrier systems in deep geological repositories due to its extraordinary swelling and retention properties. This research focuses on the chemo-mechanical behavior of compacted bentonite exposed to different pore fluids with different concentrations and loading conditions. The study involves swelling pressure and compressibility experiments along with mineralogy analysis employing X-ray diffraction (XRD) and Cation exchange. The tests were conducted on BCV (a Mg/Ca- bentonite) compacted at a dry density of 1.48 ± .02 Mg/m 3 . An advanced chemical-mechanical constitutive model for unsaturated highly expansive clays was adopted to simulate the material response and better understand its behavior. The model is able to account for the main phenomena at both macro and microstructural levels and the interactions between them. The model successfully replicated experimental observations. The XRD analyses support the macroscopic observation, indicating that salinity impacts crystalline swelling as demonstrated by the reduction of basal spacing from 19.27 Å to 15.68 Å when the osmotic suction increases from 0 MPa to 33 MPa. The results suggested that the osmotic pressure generated by the concentration in the pore fluids promotes a reduction in swelling pressures, swelling strains, and crystalline swelling of clay minerals. Also, it affects the pre-consolidation stress and the compressibility of the compacted samples. In conclusion, it was also observed that both solution type and solution concentration impact the clay swelling pressure.

Chemo-mechanical constitutive model↗
DOE OSTI2024

Device and material investigations of GaN enhancement-mode transistors for Venus and harsh environments

This Letter reports the device and material investigations of enhancement-mode p-GaN-gate AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors (HEMTs) for Venus exploration and other harsh environment applications. The GaN transistor in this work was subjected to prolonged exposure (11 days) in a simulated Venus environment (460 °C, 94 bar, complete chemical environment including CO2/N2/SO2). The mechanisms affecting the transistor performance and structural integrity in harsh environment were analyzed using a variety of experimental, simulation, and modeling techniques, including in situ electrical measurement (e.g., burn-in) and advanced microscopy (e.g., structural deformation). Through transistor, Transmission Line Method (TLM), and Hall-effect measurements vs temperature, it is revealed that the mobility decrease is the primary cause of reduction of on-state performance of this GaN transistor at high temperature. Material analysis of the device under test (DUT) confirmed the absence of foreign elements from the Venus atmosphere. No inter-diffusion of the elements (including the gate metal) was observed. The insights of this work are broadly applicable to the future design, fabrication, and deployment of robust III-N devices for harsh environment operation.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficient ECCD non-inductive plasma current start-up, ramp-up, and sustainment for an ST fusion reactor

The elimination of the need for an Ohmic heating solenoid may be the most impactful design driver for the realization of economical compact fusion tokamak reactor systems. However, this would require fully non-inductive start-up and current ramp-up from zero plasma current and low electron temperature of sub-keV to the full plasma current of ~10–15 MA at 20–30 keV electron temperature. To address this challenge, an efficient solenoid-free start-up and ramp-up scenario utilizing a low-field-side-launched extraordinary mode at the fundamental electron cyclotron harmonic frequency (X–I) is proposed, which has more than two orders of magnitude higher electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) efficiency than the conventional ECCD for the sub-keV start-up regime. A time dependent model was developed to simulate the start-up scenarios. For the Spherical Tokamak Advanced Reactor (STAR) (Menard et al 2023 Next-Step Low-Aspect-Ratio Tokamak Design Studies (IAEA)), it was found that to fully non-inductively ramp-up to 15 MA, it would take about 25 MW of EC power at 170 GHz. Because of the relatively large plasma volume of STAR, radiation losses must be considered. It is important to make sure that high Z impurities are kept sufficiently low during the early current start-up phase where the temperature is sub-keV range. Since the initial current ramp up takes place at a factor of ten lower density compared to the sustained regimes, it is important to transition into a higher bootstrap fraction discharge at lower density to minimize the ECCD power requirement during the densification. For the sustainment phase an array of eight gyrotron launchers with a total of about 60 MW of fundamental O-mode was found to be sufficient to provide the required axis-peaked external current drive. High efficiencies between 19–57 kA MW –1 were found with optimal aiming, and these were resilient to small changes in aiming angles and density and temperature profiles.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Early Exploration of a Flexible Framework for Efficient Quantum Linear Solvers in Power Systems

The rapid integration of renewable energy resources presents formidable challenges in managing power grids. While advanced computing and machine learning techniques offer some solutions for accelerating grid modeling and simulation, there remain complex problems that classical computers cannot effectively address. Quantum computing, a promising technology, has the potential to fundamentally transform how we manage power systems, especially in scenarios with a higher proportion of renewable energy sources. One critical aspect is solving linear systems of equations, crucial for power system applications like power flow analysis, for which the Harrow-Hassidim-Lloyd (HHL) algorithm is a well-known quantum solution. However, HHL quantum circuits often exhibit excessive depth, making them impractical for current Noisy-Intermediate-Scale-Quantum (NISQ) devices. In this paper, we introduce a versatile framework, powered by NWQSim, that bridges the gap between power system applications and quantum linear solvers available in Qiskit. This framework empowers researchers to efficiently explore power system applications using quantum linear solvers. Through innovative gate fusion strategies, reduced circuit depth, and GPU acceleration, our simulator significantly enhances resource efficiency. Power flow case studies have demonstrated up to a eight-fold speedup compared to Qiskit Aer, all while maintaining comparable levels of accuracy.

quantum computing, Harrow-Hassidim-Lloyd, high-per↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrated End-to-end Performance Prediction and Diagnosis for Extreme Scientific Workflows (IPPD) (Final Report)

This report details the accomplishments from the ASCR funded project “Integrated End-to-end Performance Prediction and Diagnosis for Extreme Scientific Workflows” under the award numbers FWP-66406 and DE-SC0012630, with a focus on the UC San Diego (Award No. DE-SC0012630) part of the accomplishments. We refer to the project as IPPD. The main activities of IPPD were centered on the development and integration of provenance information to capture empirically workflow information and identify the sources of bottlenecks as well as variability, and modeling and simulation to provide insights and predictively explore multiple scenarios for development of advanced techniques for optimization of resources and workflow execution. After a Phase I of the project, a Phase II effort focused on three major aspects: a) observe how data is generated, distributed, and used; b) analyze how data is (repeatedly) consumed with a focus both on repeated patterns and anomalies; and c) explore how to optimize data motion. The project leveraged and extended our existing tools with new research and demonstrated our work on the Belle II workflow suite as well as on workflows from NSLS-II.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

FY 2021 Isolated Grids and Grid-Connected Turbine Reference Systems; Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience, and Advanced Controls Launchpad (MIRACL)

For individuals, businesses, and communities focused on building resilient electrical grid infrastructure, wind energy can provide an affordable, accessible, and compatible distributed energy resource option that also enhances the capabilities of local grid operations. The Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience, and Advanced Controls Launchpad (MIRACL) project is a multi-year distributed wind research effort, driven through a partnership between four Department of Energy National Laboratories and industry to develop and improve the planning, design, and operation of wind-centered microgrids to complement solar, energy storage, and other distributed energy resources for grid-tied and isolated operation (U.S. Department of Energy, 2021). This report documents the application of methods developed through the initial three years of the MIRACL project to two real-world distributed wind reference systems. Specifically, the methods demonstrated in this report include 1) a market valuation framework to comprehensively value the services distributed wind can provide and 2) a resilience framework that enables stakeholders to characterize distribution system resilience and compare grid investment decisions from a resilience perspective. Additional methods mentioned in this report include distributed hybrid system design methods for grid resilience, advanced control co-simulation platforms, and power hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) models. Preliminary results from these additional methods are presented in this report and will be demonstrated and/or applied to the reference systems in the coming year. The purpose of applying these methods to reference systems is to drive technology transfer of the theories, methodologies, and technologies developed under the MIRACL project and increase the number of referenceable case studies available to stakeholders interested in additional value-added capabilities of wind systems beyond bulk energy supply (i.e. kilowatt-hours).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Acquire and Test IDAES Framework Components

The cooperation under the Grid Modernization Initiative and the Applied Energy Tri-Laboratory umbrellas requires mutual understanding of capabilities and a common effort to identify gaps existing in the available computational modeling and analysis tools. In this work, we report acquisition and testing of the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) framework, particularly including both electric power systems production cost model simulator Prescient as well as system optimization IDAES itself. Further, we consider the methods in which developments in Prescient and IDAES for grid-energy simulation and optimization may be included in the Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE) ecosystem that has been under collaborative development by Idaho National Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. We propose two integration methods to introduce Prescient and IDAES into existing FORCE automated workflows. One integration involves using Prescient as a market reduced-order model and IDAES models similar to how existing Modelica models are used. The other integration involves wrapping the Prescient-IDAES dispatch optimization process with the stochastic capacity optimization workflow in FORCE.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Compelling Need for a Mid-Scale Stellarator Facility

In the pursuit of the goal of commercial fusion as an abundant and safe source of energy, the stellarator is a leading concept with compelling attractiveness and demonstrated performance. A new mid-size stellarator is needed to retire risks and innovate towards a high performance, economically attractive, stellarator Fusion Pilot Plant. In this presentation we, as a community of US researchers from Universities, National Laboratories, and Private Industry, involved in studying the stellarator concept, lay out the programmatic and technical motivation for a new and modern mid-size stellarator research facility. A new mid-scale stellarator is needed to realize the potential predicted by a solid body of theory and simulation along with advances in computational tools for optimization and non-linear turbulence modeling. Notably, it is possible to combine the advantages of the stellarator (steady state, no current drive, no disruptions) with the good confinement regularly achieved in tokamaks. The top priorities for experimental work, and the motivation for a mid-scale stellarator experiment are: turbulence control, non-resonant divertor, MHD stability at large beta, confinement of fast particles, and coil simplification. A new mid-size quasi-symmetric stellarator, built as a user facility, would complement existing research at Wendelstein 7-X and LHD and strongly augment private industry. It would provide a program of innovative research, concept validation, theoretical advancement, and workforce development. Growing support and interest for stellarators by the fusion community and private industry affirms this rationale.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Techno-Economic Modelling of Tidal Energy Converter Arrays in the Tacoma Narrows

Hydrokinetic tidal energy converter (TEC) technology is yet to become cost competitive with other renewable energy sources. Understanding the interaction between energy production and the costs incurred harvesting that energy may unlock the economic potential of this technology. Although hydrodynamic simulation of TEC arrays has matured over time, including demonstration of how small and large arrays affect the resource, integration of cost modelling is often limited. The advanced ocean energy array techno-economic modelling tool ‘DTOcean’ enables designers to calculate and improve the levelised cost of energy (LCOE) of an array through parametric simulation of the energy extraction, design of the electrical network, moorings and foundations, and simulation of the installation and lifetime operations and maintenance of the array. This work presents a verification of DTOcean’s ability to simulate the techno-economic performance of TEC arrays by reproducing the hypothetical RM1 reference model, a semi-analytical model of a TEC array based in the Tacoma Narrows of Washington state, U.S.A. It is demonstrated that DTOcean can produce a reasonable estimate to the LCOE predicted by the reference model, giving (in Euro cents per kiloWatt hour) 36.69 ¢/kWh against the reference model’s 34.612 ¢/kWh for 10 TECs, while for 50 TECs, DTOcean calculated 20.34 ¢/kWh compared to 17.34 ¢/kWh for the reference model.

Topper, Mathew B. R. (ORCID:0000000347324347)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Short-warning Mitigation via Intentional Robust Disruption of a Hypothetical Impact of Asteroid 2023 NT1

We investigate various short-warning mitigation scenarios via fragmentation for a hypothetical impact of asteroid 2023 NT1, a near-Earth object (NEO) that was discovered on 2023 July 15, two days after its closest approach to Earth on July 13. The asteroid passed by Earth within ∼0.25 lunar distances, with a closest approach of ∼1 × 10 5 km and a velocity of 11.27 km s −1 . Its size remains largely uncertain, with an estimated diameter range of 26–58 m and a most probable estimate of 34 m (JPL Sentry, 2023 September 15; weighted by the NEO size frequency distribution). If 2023 NT1 had collided with Earth, it could have caused significant local damage. Assuming a spherical asteroid with a diameter of 34 m, uniform density of 2.6 g cm −3 , and impact velocity of 15.59 km s −1 , a collision would have yielded an estimated impact energy of ∼1.5 Mt, approximately 3 times the energy of the Chelyabinsk airburst in 2013. We analyze the effectiveness of mitigation via intentional robust disruption for objects similar to 2023 NT1. We utilize Pulverize It (PI), a NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts study of planetary defense via fragmentation, to model potential mitigation scenarios through simulations of hypervelocity asteroid disruption and atmospheric ground effects in the case of a terminal defense mode. Simulations suggest that PI is an effective multimodal approach for planetary defense that can operate in extremely short interdiction modes, in addition to long interdiction timescales with extended warning. Our simulations support the proposition that threats like 2023 NT1 can be effectively mitigated with intercepts of 1 day (or less) prior to impact, yielding minimal to no ground damage.

Asteroids↗