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At least 775 records · Page 43

Building Foundations for Nuclear Security Enterprise Analysis Utilizing Nuclear Weapon Data

The Nuclear Security Enterprise, managed by the National Nuclear Security Administration - a semiautonomous agency within the Department of Energy - has been associated with numerous assessments with respect to the estimating, management capabilities, and practices pertaining to nuclear weapon modernization efforts. This report identifies challenges in estimating and analyzing the Nuclear Security Enterprise through an analysis of analogous timeframe conditions utilizing two types of nuclear weapon data - (1) a measure of effort and (2) a function of time. The analysis of analogous timeframe conditions that utilizes only two types of nuclear weapon data yields four summary observations that estimators and analysts of the Nuclear Security Enterprise will find useful.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Characterization of Rare Earth Element Minerals in Coal Utilization Byproducts

The United States currently produces over 100 million tons of coal utilization byproducts (CUB) per year in the form of fly ash, bottom ash, slag, and flue gas (American Coal Ash Association (ACCA), 2015). But this “waste material” also contains potentially useful levels of rare earth elements (REE). Rare earth elements are crucial for many existing and emerging technologies, but the U.S. lacks a domestic, sustainable REE source. Our project explored the possibility of developing a supply of REEs for U.S. technologies by extracting REEs from CUBs. This work offers the potential to reduce our dependence on other countries for supply of these critical elements (NETL, REE 2016 Project Portfolio). Geologic and diagenetic history, industrial preparation methods, and the specific combustion process all play major roles in the composition of CUB. During combustion, inorganic mineral phases of coal particles are fluidized at temperatures higher than 1400oC, so inorganic mineral materials are oxidized, fused, disintegrated, or agglomerated into larger spherical and amorphous (non-crystalline) particles. The original mineralogy of the coal-containing rock and heating/cooling of the material significantly affects the composition and morphology of the particles in the combustion byproduct (Kutchko and Kim, 2006). Thus, different types of coal/refuse/ash must be characterized to better understand mineral evolution during the combustion process. Our research focused on developing a working model to address how REE minerals behave during the combustion process: this research should help determine the most effective engineering methods for extracting REEs from CUBs. We used multimodal imaging and image processing techniques to characterize six rock and ash samples from different coal power plants with respect to morphology, grain size, presence of mineral phases, and elemental composition. The results of these characterization activities provided thresholds for realizing the occurrence of REE mineral phases in CUB and allowed us to calculate structural and volumetric estimates of REE. Collectively, the rock and coal ash samples contained minerals such as quartz, kaolinite, muscovite/illite, iron oxide (as hematite or magnetite), mullite, and clinochlore. Trace minerals included pyrite, zircon, siderite, rutile, diopside, foresterite, gypsum, and barite. We identified REE phosphate minerals monazite (Ce,La,Nd,Th)(PO 4 ,SiO 4 ), xenotime (YPO 4 ,SiO 4 ), and apatite (Ca 5 (PO 4 ) 3 (F,Cl,OH) via SEM and electron microprobe analysis: these materials generally occurred as 1-10 μm-long crystals in the rock and ash samples. As has been shown in other studies, amorphous material-aluminosilicate glass or iron oxyhydroxide-are the major components of coal fly and bottom ash. Trace amounts of amorphous calcium oxide and mixed element (e.g., Al-Si-Ca-Fe) slag are also present. Quartz, mullite, hematite, and magnetite are the crystalline phases present. We found that REEs are present as monomineralic grains dispersed within the ash, as well as fused to or encapsulated by amorphous aluminosilicate glass particles. Monazite and xenotime have relatively high melting points (>1800 °C) compared to typical combustion temperatures; our observations indicate that the REE-phosphates, which presumably contribute a large percentage of REE to the bulk ash REE pool, as measured by mass spectroscopy, are largely unaltered by the combustion. Our study shows that conventional coal combustion processes sequester REE minerals into aluminosilicate glass phases, which presents a new engineering challenge for extracting REE from coal ash. The characterization work summarized in this report provides a semi-quantitative assessments of REE in coal-containing rock and CUB. The data we obtained from 2- and 3-D imaging, elemental mapping, volumetric estimates, and advanced high-resolution pixel classification successfully identified the different mineral phases present in CUB. Further, our characterization results can guide techniques for extracting REEs from CUB, or other geologic and engineered materials. Whilst, interpretations will inform future REE separation and extraction techniques and technologies practical for commercial utilization of combustion byproducts generated by power plants.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Utilizing Weak Indicators to Detect Anomalous Behaviors in Networks

We consider the use of a novel weak in- dicator alongside more commonly used weak indicators to help detect anomalous behavior in a large computer network. The data of the network which we are studying in this research paper concerns remote log-in information (Virtual Private Network, or VPN sessions) from the internal network of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The novel indicator we are utilizing is some- thing which, while novel in its application to data science/cyber security research, is a concept borrowed from the business world. The Her ndahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) is a computationally trivial index which provides a useful heuristic for regulatory agencies to ascertain the relative competitiveness of a particular industry. Using this index as a lagging indicator in the monthly format we have studied could help to detect anomalous behavior by a particular or small set of users on the network. Additionally, we study indicators related to the speed of movement of a user based on the physical location of their current and previous logins. This data can be ascertained from the IP addresses of the users, and is likely very similar to the fraud detection schemes regularly utilized by credit card networks to detect anomalous activity. In future work we would look to nd a way to combine these indicators for use as an internal fraud detection system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Low-Income Community Solar: Utility Return Considerations for Electric Cooperatives

The objective of this short report is to identify project structures that make low-income community solar projects more cost-effective, replicable, and scalable, for electric cooperative and municipal utilities. This report explores the tradeoffs between providing energy bill savings for low-income subscribers and utility project returns, as well as some of the key lessons learned from existing successful low-income community solar pilot projects.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Waste to Wisdom: Utilizing Forest Residues for the Production of Bioenergy and Biobased Products

The Waste to Wisdom project was part of the Biomass Research and Development Initiative (BRDI) and funded by the Department of Energy (DE-EE0006297) at an amount of $5.8 million. Our interdisciplinary research team, consisting of academics, business professionals, and land managers, worked together for about four years (September 2013 to December 2017) to: 1) conduct field-based experiments to develop innovative tools and systems that improve the economics, accessibility, and production of quality feedstocks from forest residues, 2) develop and test stand-alone in-woods or near-the forest biomass conversion technologies (BCTs) for the production of biochar, torrefied wood, and briquettes, and 3) perform analyses to evaluate the economic feasibility of commercial deployment of BCTs and to quantify the life cycle economic and environmental benefits of utilizing forest residues with BCTs for the production of bioenergy and bioproducts. The research papers presented in this Special Issue cover key aspects of the research efforts and findings made by the project team. We encourage the audience to visit the project web site (http://wastetowisdom.com/) to learn more about the team’s research on feedstock development, biomass conversion technologies, and the financial and environmental benefits of utilizing forest residues for production of bioenergy and biobased products.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Solar Utility Network Deployment Acceleration

The National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA) is the national association representing 833 distribution and 62 generation and transmission (G&T) cooperatives. From booming suburbs to remote rural farming communities, America’s electric cooperatives are energy providers and engines of economic development and way of life for more than 19 million American homes, businesses, farms, and schools in 47 states across the U.S. Member owned and responsive, generally smaller than investor-owned and municipal utilities, often more nimble in services for members, co-ops provide the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) with a strong partner for testing and accelerating utility-scale solar design, pricing, and delivery models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Grid Integration of Utility-Scale Solar Energy Facilities (Final Report)

The objective of this project is to utilize advanced monitoring data from the 32MWp Long Island Solar Farm solar photovoltaic array (“LISF Array”) on the BNL campus to perform collaborative research that will aid in the grid integration of utility-scale solar PV plants. Knowledge gained from this research will help to address the challenges facing deployment and interconnection to the electric grid of large solar plants.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Value Streams from Distribution Grid Support Using Utility-Scale Vanadium Redox Flow Battery: NREL-Sumitomo Electric Battery Demonstration Project

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) collaborated with Sumitomo Electric to provide research support in modeling and optimally dispatching a utility-scale vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB) energy storage. The objective of the project was to identify value streams from using utility-scale VRFB for local grid support use-cases, including voltage regulation (droop), capacity firming, peak shaving and valley filling, and energy arbitrage. This project was also supported by San Diego Gas and Electric (SDGandE). SDGandE provided data and approval to operate their VRFB energy storage system on an SDGandE distribution feeder. NREL worked with Sumitomo Electric to evaluate optimal dispatch strategies to VRFB, analyze the technical impacts, and calculate the associated cost-benefit ratio of substation-level energy storage on an SDG&E distribution feeder. To support this research, NREL evaluated the impacts of the battery use cases suggested by Sumitomo on the SDGandE host feeder. In addition to evaluating the battery use case, this effort identified possible ways to monetize the benefits from distribution feeder support.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Comparative Angle of Incidence Characterization of Utility Grade Photovoltaic Modules

Angle of incidence response of a photovoltaic module describes its light gathering capability when incident sunlight is at an orientation other than normal to the module's surface. At low incident angles (i.e. close to normal), most modules have similar responses. However, at increasing incident angles, reflective losses dominate response and relative module performance becomes differentiated. Relative performance in this range is important for understanding the potential power output of utility - scale ph otovoltaic systems. In this report, we document the relative angle of incidence response of four utility - grade panels to each other and to four First Solar modules. We found that response was nearly identical between all modules up to an incident angle of ~55°. At higher angles, differences of up to 5% were observed. A module from Yingli was the best performing commercial module while a First Solar test module with a non - production anti - reflective coating was the best overall performer. This page left blank

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

2018 U.S. Utility-Scale Photovoltaics-Plus-Energy Storage System Costs Benchmark

Market growth for utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) systems has been rapid for several years. Today, with the cost reductions of energy storage technologies, the combining PV and energy storage has become feasible and beneficial, especially for the areas that have only PV standalone systems and need to shift the peak load to meet electricity demand in the evening. Overall, utility-scale PV plus energy storage systems can provide dispatchable energy and reliable capacity. This study details cost factors, including labor costs, material costs, overhead, and permitting costs using a system-level bottom-up cost modeling approach. We use this model to benchmark PV-plus-storage installation system cost and identify the cost difference for AC- and DC-coupled systems and duration variation. Finally, we assess the cost reduction opportunities of colocating PV systems with energy storage systems in order to indicate the possible economic impacts of the PV-plus-storage configuration and help future research and development (R&D) effects in the context of U.S. energy storage policymaking.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

2018 U.S. Utility-Scale Photovoltaics-Plus-Energy Storage System Costs Benchmark

Market growth for utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) systems has been rapid for several years. Today, with the cost reductions of energy storage technologies, the combining PV and energy storage has become feasible and beneficial, especially for the areas that have only PV standalone systems and need to shift the peak load to meet electricity demand in the evening. Overall, utility-scale PV plus energy storage systems can provide dispatchable energy and reliable capacity. This study details cost factors, including labor costs, material costs, overhead, and permitting costs using a system-level bottom-up cost modeling approach. We use this model to benchmark PV-plus-storage installation system cost and identify the cost difference for AC- and DC-coupled systems and duration variation. Finally, we assess the cost reduction opportunities of colocating PV systems with energy storage systems in order to indicate the possible economic impacts of the PV-plus-storage configuration and help future research and development (R&D) effects in the context of U.S. energy storage policymaking.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Cost and Performance Metrics Used to Assess Carbon Utilization and Storage Technologies

The report presents a diverse set of twelve metrics grouped under the subheadings of performance, cost, emissions, market, and safety that have been developed for use in comparing and/or screening CO 2 utilization projects and technologies. Utilization technologies could involve the chemical conversion of CO 2 into valued products such as polycarbonate plastics, or the integration of CO 2 into products such as cement or concrete.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Electric Vehicle Charging Implications for Utility Ratemaking in Colorado

Increasing use of electric vehicles (EVs) will affect utility costs and operations, which in turn will affect regulatory decisions on customer rates and utility programs. This presentation provides an overview of current research on the regulatory implications of EV deployment. It also includes a special analysis of EV charging as demand response specific to Colorado and its use of wind power.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Cost Projections for Utility-Scale Battery Storage

In this work we document the development of cost and performance projections for utility-scale lithium-ion battery systems, with a focus on 4-hour duration systems. The projections are developed from an analysis of over 25 publications that consider utility-scale storage costs. The suite of publications demonstrates varied cost reduction for battery storage over time. Figure ES-1 shows the low, mid, and high cost projections developed in this work (on a normalized basis) relative to the published values. Figure ES-2 shows the overall capital cost for a 4-hour battery system based on those projections, with storage costs of 124 dollars/kWh, 207 dollars/kWh, and 338 dollars/kWh in 2030 and 76 dollars/kWh, 156 dollars/kWh, and 258 dollars/kWh in 2050. Battery variable operations and maintenance costs, lifetimes, and efficiencies are also discussed, with recommended values selected based on the publications surveyed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Multi–LDAP Dynamic User Management Tool Utilizing Oracle Application Express and PL/SQL

A Center for Infrastructure Security Analysis (CISA) client system required support of multiple Lightweight Directory Access Protocol (LDAP) directories for multiple, varied user communities. The LDAP directories were all based upon different technologies, i.e., Microsoft Active Directory (AD), Microsoft Active Directory Lightweight Directory Services (ADLDS), and Oracle Internet Directory (OID), depending on system setup, security requirements, and legacy software. Research revealed that PL/SQL provided the capability to execute dynamic PL/SQL and SQL blocks. The dynamic capabilities were utilized along with several configuration tables to provide an object-oriented, polymorphic-like behavior. This architecture was chosen so that a top-level application programming interface (API) could be defined for all calls, no matter what type of LDAP was being manipulated, as each LDAP type has slightly different attributes and requirements. The dynamic nature of the user management system allowed for easy setup and utilization of any new LDAP directories, minimizing the time and effort expended on system changes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

l3d2vtk: An MCNPTools Utility to Enable LNK3DNT File Visualization & Post-processing [Slides]

This presentation discusses the objective of the project which is to provide a utility (among other utilities) that improves MCNP analysis post-processing and visualization capabilities. Much recent work has been done to improve MCNP post-processing and visualization. It also discusses the goals of the project, which are to create a product that is portable, open, easily interrogated by a user, no dependencies, including a mesh tally-to-VTK conversion, an EEOUT-to-VTK conversion, and an interactive, 3-D, visualization environments (e.g., ParaView). The presentation also discusses the reasons regarding why this is being done, which are to provide physical insight into behaviors and trends, to facilitate error mitigation (easier to “see” errors than “read” them), and to improve communication with collaborators. It also discusses why this is being done now as analyses are getting ever-more complicated and are more flexible in terms of build, test, and deployment capabilities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Benchmarking Utility-Scale PV Operational Expenses and Project Lifetimes: Results from a Survey of U.S. Solar Industry Professionals

This paper draws on a survey of solar industry professionals and other sources to clarify trends in the expected useful life and operational expenditure (OpEx) of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants in the United States. Solar project developers, sponsors, long-term owners, and consultants have increased project-life assumptions over time, from an average of ~21.5 years in 2007 to ~32.5 years in 2019. Current assumptions range from 25 years to more than 35 years depending on the organization; 17 out of 19 organizations surveyed or reviewed use 30 years or more. Levelized, lifetime OpEx estimates have declined from an average of ~$\$$35/kW DC -yr for projects built in 2007 to an average of ~$\$$17/kW DC -yr in 2019. Across 13 sources, the range in average lifetime OpEx for projects built in 2019 is broad, from $\$$13 to $\$$25/kW DC -yr. Operations and maintenance (O&M) costs—one component of OpEx—have declined precipitously in recent years, to $\$$5-8/kW DC -yr in many cases. Property taxes and land lease costs are highly variable across sites, but on average are—together—of similar magnitude. Other OpEx line items include security, insurance, and asset management. Given 2007-2009 values for not only project life and OpEx but also other drivers of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE, excluding the investment tax credit), the LCOE for utility-scale PV projects built from 2007 through 2009 averaged $\$$305 /MWh. Using 2019 values for all parameters yields an average LCOE of $\$$51 /MWh. The decline in LCOE from $\$$305 /MWh to $\$$51 /MWh was predominantly caused by reductions in up-front expenditures (and, to a much lesser extent, by changes in capacity factors, financing costs, and tax rates), but 9% ($\$$22 /MWh) of the overall decline is due to improvements in project life and OpEx. Project life extensions and OpEx reductions have had similarly sized impacts on LCOE over this period, at $\$$11 /MWh each. Had project life and OpEx not improved over the last decade, LCOE in 2019 would have instead been $\$$73 /MWh—43% higher. Given the limited quantity and comparability of previously available data on these cost drivers, the data and trends presented here may inform assumptions used by electric system planners, modelers, and analysts. The results may also provide useful benchmarks to the solar industry, helping developers and assets owners compare their expectations for project life and OpEx with those of their peers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Cost Projections for Utility-Scale Battery Storage (2020 Update)

In this work we describe the development of cost and performance projections for utility-scale lithium-ion battery systems, with a focus on 4-hour duration systems. The projections are developed from an analysis of 19 publications that consider utility-scale storage costs. The suite of publications demonstrates varied cost reductions for battery storage over time. Figure ES-1 shows the low, mid, and high cost projections developed in this work (on a normalized basis) relative to the published values. Figure ES-2 shows the overall capital cost for a 4-hour battery system based on those projections, with storage costs of $\$$144/kWh, $\$$208/kWh, and $\$$293/kWh in 2030 and $\$$88/kWh, $\$$156/kWh, and $\$$219/kWh in 2050. Battery variable operations and maintenance costs, lifetimes, and efficiencies are also discussed, with recommended values selected based on the publications surveyed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗