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At least 775 records · Page 43
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Young Stellar Objects, Accretion Disks, and Their Variability with Rubin Observatory LSST

Vera C. Rubin Observatory, through the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), will allow us to derive a panchromatic view of variability in young stellar objects (YSOs) across all relevant timescales. Indeed, both short-term variability (on timescales of hours to days) and long-term variability (months to years), predominantly driven by the dynamics of accretion processes in disk-hosting YSOs, can be explored by taking advantage of the multiband filters option available in Rubin LSST, in particular the u, g, r, i filters that enable us to discriminate between photospheric stellar properties and accretion signatures. The homogeneity and depth of sky coverage that will be achieved with LSST will provide us with a unique opportunity to characterize the time evolution of disk accretion as a function of age and varying environmental conditions (e.g., field crowdedness, massive neighbors, metallicity) by targeting different star-forming regions. In this contribution to the Rubin LSST Survey Strategy Optimization Focus Issue, we discuss how implementing a dense observing cadence to explore short-term variability in YSOs represents a key complementary effort to the Wide–Fast–Deep observing mode that will be used to survey the sky over the full duration of the main survey (≈10 yr). The combination of these two modes will be vital to investigate the connection between the inner-disk dynamics and longer-term eruptive variability behaviors, such as those observed on EX Lupi–type objects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multimessenger Characterization of Markarian 501 during Historically Low X-Ray and γ-Ray Activity

We study the broadband emission of Mrk 501 using multiwavelength observations from 2017 to 2020 performed with a multitude of instruments, involving, among others, MAGIC, Fermi's Large Area Telescope (LAT), NuSTAR, Swift, GASP-WEBT, and the Owens Valley Radio Observatory. Mrk 501 showed an extremely low broadband activity, which may help to unravel its baseline emission. Nonetheless, significant flux variations are detected at all wave bands, with the highest occurring at X-rays and very-high-energy (VHE) γ-rays. A significant correlation (>3σ) between X-rays and VHE γ-rays is measured, supporting leptonic scenarios to explain the variable parts of the emission, also during low activity. This is further supported when we extend our data from 2008 to 2020, and identify, for the first time, significant correlations between the Swift X-Ray Telescope and Fermi-LAT. We additionally find correlations between high-energy γ-rays and radio, with the radio lagging by more than 100 days, placing the γ-ray emission zone upstream of the radio-bright regions in the jet. Furthermore, Mrk 501 showed a historically low activity in X-rays and VHE γ-rays from mid-2017 to mid-2019 with a stable VHE flux (>0.2 TeV) of 5% the emission of the Crab Nebula. The broadband spectral energy distribution (SED) of this 2 yr long low state, the potential baseline emission of Mrk 501, can be characterized with one-zone leptonic models, and with (lepto)-hadronic models fulfilling neutrino flux constraints from IceCube. We explore the time evolution of the SED toward the low state, revealing that the stable baseline emission may be ascribed to a standing shock, and the variable emission to an additional expanding or traveling shock.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic Error Cancellation in Analog Quantum Simulation

Analog quantum simulation is a promising path towards solving classically intractable problems in many-body physics on near-term quantum devices. However, the presence of noise limits the size of the system and the length of time that can be simulated. In our work, we consider an error model in which the actual Hamiltonian of the simulator differs from the target Hamiltonian we want to simulate by small local perturbations, which are assumed to be random and unbiased. We analyze the error accumulated in observables in this setting and show that, due to stochastic error cancellation, with high probability the error scales as the square root of the number of qubits instead of linearly. We explore the concentration phenomenon of this error as well as its implications for local observables in the thermodynamic limit. Moreover, we show that stochastic error cancellation also manifests in the fidelity between the target state at the end of time-evolution and the actual state we obtain in the presence of noise. This indicates that, to reach a certain fidelity, more noise can be tolerated than implied by the worst-case bound if the noise comes from many statistically independent sources.

Analog quantum simulation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cloudy-sky contributions to the direct aerosol effect

The radiative forcing of the aerosol–radiation interaction can be decomposed into clear-sky and cloudy-sky portions. Two sets of multi-model simulations within Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom), combined with observational methods, and the time evolution of aerosol emissions over the industrial era show that the contribution from cloudy-sky regions is likely weak. A mean of the simulations considered is 0.01±0.1 W m-2. Multivariate data analysis of results from AeroCom Phase II shows that many factors influence the strength of the cloudy-sky contribution to the forcing of the aerosol–radiation interaction. Overall, single-scattering albedo of anthropogenic aerosols and the interaction of aerosols with the short-wave cloud radiative effects are found to be important factors. A more dedicated focus on the contribution from the cloud-free and cloud-covered sky fraction, respectively, to the aerosol–radiation interaction will benefit the quantification of the radiative forcing and its uncertainty range.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

The 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled land data assimilation system for E3SM version 2

Abstract. A new weakly coupled land data assimilation (WCLDA) system based on the four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) method is developed and applied to the fully coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). The dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational (DRP-4DVar) method is employed to implement 4DVar using the ensemble technique instead of the adjoint technique. With an interest in providing initial conditions for decadal climate predictions, monthly mean anomalies of soil moisture and temperature from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) reanalysis from 1980 to 2016 are assimilated into the land component of E3SMv2 within the coupled modeling framework with a 1-month assimilation window. The coupled assimilation experiment is evaluated using multiple metrics, including the cost function, assimilation efficiency index, correlation, root-mean-square error (RMSE), and bias, and compared with a control simulation without land data assimilation. The WCLDA system yields improved simulation of soil moisture and temperature compared with the control simulation, with improvements found throughout the soil layers and in many regions of the global land. In terms of both soil moisture and temperature, the assimilation experiment outperforms the control simulation with reduced RMSE and higher temporal correlation in many regions, especially in South America, central Africa, Australia, and large parts of Eurasia. Furthermore, significant improvements are also found in reproducing the time evolution of the 2012 US Midwest drought, highlighting the crucial role of land surface in drought lifecycle. The WCLDA system is intended to be a foundational resource for research to investigate land-derived climate predictability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Huge ensembles – Part 1: Design of ensemble weather forecasts using spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. Simulating low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich the sampling of internal variability. They may capture the long tails associated with climate hazards better than traditional ensemble sizes. Due to computational constraints, it is infeasible to generate huge ensembles (comprised of 1000–10 000 members) with traditional, physics-based numerical models. In this two-part paper, we replace traditional numerical simulations with machine learning (ML) to generate hindcasts of huge ensembles. In Part 1, we construct an ensemble weather forecasting system based on spherical Fourier neural operators (SFNOs), and we discuss important design decisions for constructing such an ensemble. The ensemble represents model uncertainty through perturbed-parameter techniques, and it represents initial condition uncertainty through bred vectors, which sample the fastest-growing modes of the forecast. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as a baseline, we develop an evaluation pipeline composed of mean, spectral, and extreme diagnostics. With large-scale, distributed SFNOs with 1.1 billion learned parameters, we achieve calibrated probabilistic forecasts. As the trajectories of the individual members diverge, the ML ensemble mean spectra degrade with lead time, consistent with physical expectations. However, the individual ensemble members' spectra stay constant with lead time. Therefore, these members simulate realistic weather states during the rollout, and the ML ensemble passes a crucial spectral test in the literature. The IFS and ML ensembles have similar extreme forecast indices, and we show that the ML extreme weather forecasts are reliable and discriminating. These diagnostics ensure that the ensemble can reliably simulate the time evolution of the atmosphere, including low-likelihood high-impact extremes. In Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble initialized each day in summer 2023, and we characterize the simulations of extremes.

Mahesh, Ankur↗
DOE OSTI2021

Intense windstorms in the northeastern United States

Abstract. Windstorms are a major natural hazard in many countries. The objective of this study is to identify and characterize intense windstorms during the last 4 decades in the US Northeast and determine both the sources of cyclones responsible for these events and the manner in which those cyclones differ from the cyclone climatology. The windstorm detection is based on the spatial extent of locally extreme wind speeds at 100 m height from the ERA5 reanalysis database. During the top 10 windstorms, wind speeds exceed their local 99.9th percentile over at least one-third of land-based ERA5 grid cells in this high-population-density region of the USA. Maximum sustained wind speeds at 100 m during these windstorms range from 26 to over 43 ms−1, with wind speed return periods exceeding 6.5 to 106 years (considering the top 5 % of grid cells during each storm). Property damage associated with these storms, with inflation adjusted to January 2020, ranges from USD 24 million to over USD 29 billion. Two of these windstorms are linked to decaying tropical cyclones, three are Alberta clippers, and the remaining storms are Colorado lows. Two of the 10 re-intensified off the east coast, leading to development of nor'easters. These windstorms followed frequently observed cyclone tracks but exhibit maximum intensities as measured using 700 hPa relative vorticity and mean sea level pressure that is 5–10 times the mean values for cyclones that followed similar tracks over this 40-year period. The time evolution of wind speeds and concurrent precipitation for those windstorms that occurred after the year 2000 exhibit good agreement with in situ ground-based and remote sensing observations, plus storm damage reports, indicating that the ERA5 reanalysis data have a high degree of fidelity for large, damaging windstorms such as these. A larger pool of the top 50 largest windstorms exhibit evidence of only weak serial clustering, which is in contrast to the relatively strong serial clustering of windstorms in Europe.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1966

Cosmic-ray propagation. I.

Charged particle motion in random magnetic field, describing time evolution of particle distribution in pitch angle and position in terms of Fokker- Planck coefficients

INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD↗
NASA NTRS1972

Solar flare particle propagation: Comparision of a new analytic solution with spacecraft measurements

An analytic solution was obtained to the complete Fokker-Planck equation for solar flare particle propagation including the effects of convection, energy-change, corotation, and diffusion. It is assumed that the particles are injected impulsively at a single point in space, and that a boundary exists beyond which the particles are free to escape. Several solar flare particle events were observed with solar and galactic cosmic ray experiment aboard OGO 6. Detailed comparisons of the predictions of the solution with observations of 1 to 70 MeV protons show that the model adequately describes both the rise and decay times. The solution also yields a time evolution for the vector anisotropy which agrees well with reported observations.

Lupton, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Charged-particle transport in turbulent astrophysical plasmas

The effect of electromagnetic fluctuations, or plasma turbulence, on the motion of the individual particles in a plasma is investigated. Two alternative methods are used to find a general equation governing the time-evolution of a distribution of charged particles subject to both an external force field and the random fields of the fluctuations. It is found that, for the high-temperature, low-density plasmas frequently encountered in the study of astrophysics, the presence of even a small amount of turbulence can have a very important effect on the behavior of the plasma. Two problems in which turbulence plays an important role are treated.

Newman, C. E., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Quantum-mechanical transport equation for atomic systems.

A quantum-mechanical transport equation (QMTE) is derived which should be applicable to a wide range of problems involving the interaction of radiation with atoms or molecules which are also subject to collisions with perturber atoms. The equation follows the time evolution of the macroscopic atomic density matrix elements of atoms located at classical position R and moving with classical velocity v. It is quantum mechanical in the sense that all collision kernels or rates which appear have been obtained from a quantum-mechanical theory and, as such, properly take into account the energy-level variations and velocity changes of the active (emitting or absorbing) atom produced in collisions with perturber atoms. The present formulation is better suited to problems involving high-intensity external fields, such as those encountered in laser physics.

Berman, P. R.↗
NASA NTRS1973

The critical state - A trapped wave model of vortex breakdown.

A model of vortex breakdown is presented, and its predictions are compared with the experiments of Sarpkaya (1971). The model is centered about a theory of long, weakly nonlinear waves propagating on critical flows in tubes of variable cross section. Although the weakly nonlinear theory must be extended beyond its domain of formal validity, many of the experimentally observed features of vortex breakdown are reproduced by the model. The description of the time evolution of the flowfield that is presented requires numerical calculations that are not simple, but some important conclusions may be determined by easy computations. In particular, the axial position of a breakdown may be found from a very simple equation.

Randall, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Thermal structure of the Martian atmosphere during the dissipation of the dust storm of 1971

The secular variation of the thermal structure of the Martian atmosphere during the dissipation phase of the 1971 dust storm is examined, using temperatures obtained by the infrared spectroscopy investigation on Mariner 9. For the latitude range -20 to -30, the mean temperature at the 2mb level is found to decrease from approximately 220K in mid-December 1971 to about 190K by June 1972 while for the 0.3mb level a decrease from 203K to 160K is observed. Over the same period, the amplitude of the diurnal temperature wave also decreased. Assuming a simplified radiative heating model, the dust optical depth is found to decrease approximately exponentially with an e-folding time of about 60 days at both the 0.3 and 2mb levels. Stokes-Cunningham settling alone cannot account for this behavior. Sedimentation models which include both gravitational settling and vertical mixing are developed in an effort to explain the time evolution of the dust.

Conrath, B. J.↗
NASA NTRS1973

A square-root data array solution of the continuous-discrete filtering problem

The Dyer-McReynolds (1969) discrete square-root filtering algorithm is extended to accommodate continuous dynamics. Differential equations are given to represent the time evolution of the filter data array. These equations are nonlinear, but it is shown that the nonlinearities act to enhance the stability of the solution.

Bierman, G. J.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Classical electromagnetic radiation of the Dirac electron

A wave-function-dependent four-vector potential is added to the Dirac equation in order to achieve conservation of energy and momentum for a Dirac electron and its emitted electromagnetic field. The resultant equation contains solutions which describe transitions between different energy states of the electron. As a consequence it is possible to follow the space-time evolution of such a process. This evolution is shown in the case of the spontaneous emission of an electromagnetic field by an electron bound in a hydrogen-like atom. The intensity of the radiation and the spectral distribution are calculated for transitions between two eigenstates. The theory gives a self-consistent deterministic description of some simple radiation processes without using quantum electrodynamics or the correspondence principle.

Lanyi, G.↗