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Uncertainty Analysis in 3D Equilibrium Reconstruction

Reconstruction is an inverse process where a parameter space is searched to locate a set of parameters with the highest probability of describing experimental observations. Due to systematic errors and uncertainty in experimental measurements, this optimal set of parameters will contain some associated uncertainty. This uncertainty in the optimal parameters leads to uncertainty in models derived using those parameters. V3FIT is a three-dimensional (3D) equilibrium reconstruction code that propagates uncertainty from the input signals, to the reconstructed parameters, and to the final model. Here in this paper, we describe the methods used to propagate uncertainty in V3FIT. Using the results of whole shot 3D equilibrium reconstruction of the Compact Toroidal Hybrid, this propagated uncertainty is validated against the random variation in the resulting parameters. Two different model parameterizations demonstrate how the uncertainty propagation can indicate the quality of a reconstruction. As a proxy for random sampling, the whole shot reconstruction results in a time interval that will be used to validate the propagated uncertainty from a single time slice.

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A New Shutdown Dose Rate Benchmark Problem for Representative Fusion Applications

Here, this work introduces a new benchmark problem for calculating shutdown dose rates (SDDRs) aimed at fusion reactor applications. The model is designed to represent a simplified version of a typical ITER port plug. The responses of interest include neutron flux, gamma flux, and gamma SDDR at 12 different locations scattered throughout the port. This article outlines the geometry specifications of the problem, provides material definitions for the components, specifies the required responses to be calculated, and presents the source definition information. The need for this benchmark arises from the limited availability of publicly accessible references, with only one benchmark representing the typical dimensions and materials found in fusion systems. This existing benchmark has been cited extensively, reflecting the demand within the scientific community to test both established and novel workflows for SDDR calculations. However, since its presentation at a conference in 2011, the results have become increasingly well known. Moreover, the absence of formal publication and peer review has led to the details of this benchmark being extracted from secondary sources, such as subsequent studies that reference it. As a result, analysts are left with significant flexibility in interpreting the key parameters, which can be adjusted to account for unknown systematic errors, ultimately reproducing the already well-known responses. This new benchmark serves as an updated version of that earlier work, with the aim of providing a more reliable description of the materials and their impurities, which is crucial for assessing activation and subsequent gamma emission. Additionally, it seeks to provide a geometry that more closely represents an ITER port plug. The improvements in the problem definition will lead to a more reproducible benchmark problem, while also presenting the radiation transport community with a completely new challenge. The results will be published in a future article to allow analysts adequate time to analyze this problem independently.

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THE CATALOG OF POSITIONS OF OPTICALLY BRIGHT EXTRAGALACTIC RADIO SOURCES OBRS-2

Future space-borne astrometry missions, such as Gaia, will be able to determine the optical positions of hundreds of quasars with submilliarcsecond accuracies comparable to those achieved in radio by very long baseline interferometry (VLBI). Comparisons of coordinate systems from space-borne missions and VLBI will be very important, first for investigations of possible systematic errors and second for investigations of possible shifts between centroids of radio and optical emissions in active galactic nuclei. In order to make such a comparison more robust, a program for densification of the grid of radio sources detectable with both VLBI and Gaia was launched in 2006. Program sources are 398 quasars with declinations > - 10 Degree-Sign that are brighter than 18 mag at the V band. The first two observing campaigns were run in 2007-2008. In the third campaign, a set of 291 objects from that list was observed with the VLBA+EVN in 2010-2011 with the primary goal of producing their images with milliarcsecond resolution. In this paper, following the method of absolute astrometry, coordinates of observed sources have been derived with milliarcsecond accuracies from analysis of these observations. The catalog of positions of 295 target sources, estimates of their correlated flux densities at 2.2 and 8.4 GHz, and their images are presented. The accuracies of source coordinates are in a range of 2-200 mas, with a median of 3.2 mas.

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WOCS 40007: A DETACHED ECLIPSING BINARY NEAR THE TURNOFF OF THE OPEN CLUSTER NGC 6819

We analyze extensive BVR{sub c}I{sub c} time-series photometry and radial-velocity measurements for WOCS 40007 (Auner 259; KIC 5113053), a double-lined detached eclipsing binary and a member of the open cluster NGC 6819. Utilizing photometric observations from the 1 m telescope at Mount Laguna Observatory and spectra from the WIYN 3.5 m telescope, we measure precise and accurate masses ({approx}1.6% uncertainty) and radii ({approx}0.5%) for the binary components. In addition, we discover a third star orbiting the binary with a period greater than 3000 days using radial velocities and Kepler eclipse timings. Because the stars in the eclipsing binary are near the cluster turnoff, they are evolving rapidly in size and are sensitive to age. With a metallicity of [Fe/H] = +0.09 {+-} 0.03, we find the age of NGC 6819 to be about 2.4 Gyr from color-magnitude diagram (CMD) isochrone fitting and 3.1 {+-} 0.4 Gyr by analyzing the mass-radius (M-R) data for this binary. The M-R age is above previous determinations for this cluster, but consistent within 1{sigma} uncertainties. When the M-R data for the primary star of the additional cluster binary WOCS 23009 is included, the weighted age estimate drops to 2.5 {+-} 0.2 Gyr, with a systematic uncertainty of at least 0.2 Gyr. The age difference between our CMD and M-R findings may be the result of systematic error in the metallicity or helium abundance used in models, or due to slight radius inflation of one or both stars in the WOCS 40007 binary.

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CALIBRATIONS OF ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS OBTAINED FROM THE FIRST YEAR OF SDSS-III APOGEE OBSERVATIONS

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey III (SDSS-III) Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) is a three-year survey that is collecting 10{sup 5} high-resolution spectra in the near-IR across multiple Galactic populations. To derive stellar parameters and chemical compositions from this massive data set, the APOGEE Stellar Parameters and Chemical Abundances Pipeline (ASPCAP) has been developed. Here, we describe empirical calibrations of stellar parameters presented in the first SDSS-III APOGEE data release (DR10). These calibrations were enabled by observations of 559 stars in 20 globular and open clusters. The cluster observations were supplemented by observations of stars in NASA's Kepler field that have well determined surface gravities from asteroseismic analysis. We discuss the accuracy and precision of the derived stellar parameters, considering especially effective temperature, surface gravity, and metallicity; we also briefly discuss the derived results for the abundances of the α-elements, carbon, and nitrogen. Overall, we find that ASPCAP achieves reasonably accurate results for temperature and metallicity, but suffers from systematic errors in surface gravity. We derive calibration relations that bring the raw ASPCAP results into better agreement with independently determined stellar parameters. The internal scatter of ASPCAP parameters within clusters suggests that metallicities are measured with a precision better than 0.1 dex, effective temperatures better than 150 K, and surface gravities better than 0.2 dex. The understanding provided by the clusters and Kepler giants on the current accuracy and precision will be invaluable for future improvements of the pipeline.

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PANCHROMATIC HUBBLE ANDROMEDA TREASURY. XII. MAPPING STELLAR METALLICITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN M31

We present a study of spatial variations in the metallicity of old red giant branch stars in the Andromeda galaxy. Photometric metallicity estimates are derived by interpolating isochrones for over seven million stars in the Panchromatic Hubble Andromeda Treasury (PHAT) survey. This is the first systematic study of stellar metallicities over the inner 20 kpc of Andromeda’s galactic disk. We see a clear metallicity gradient of −0.020 ± 0.004 dex kpc{sup −1} from ∼4–20 kpc assuming a constant red giant branch age. This metallicity gradient is derived after correcting for the effects of photometric bias and completeness and dust extinction, and is quite insensitive to these effects. The unknown age gradient in M31's disk creates the dominant systematic uncertainty in our derived metallicity gradient. However, spectroscopic analyses of galaxies similar to M31 show that they typically have small age gradients that make this systematic error comparable to the 1σ error on our metallicity gradient measurement. In addition to the metallicity gradient, we observe an asymmetric local enhancement in metallicity at radii of 3–6 kpc that appears to be associated with Andromeda’s elongated bar. This same region also appears to have an enhanced stellar density and velocity dispersion.

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TESTING CONVERGENCE FOR GLOBAL ACCRETION DISKS

Global disk simulations provide a powerful tool for investigating accretion and the underlying magnetohydrodynamic turbulence driven by magneto-rotational instability (MRI). Using them to accurately predict quantities such as stress, accretion rate, and surface brightness profile requires that purely numerical effects, arising from both resolution and algorithm, be understood and controlled. We use the flux-conservative Athena code to conduct a series of experiments on disks having a variety of magnetic topologies to determine what constitutes adequate resolution. We develop and apply several resolution metrics: (Q{sub z} ) and (Q{sub {phi}}), the ratio of the grid zone size to the characteristic MRI wavelength, {alpha}{sub mag}, the ratio of the Maxwell stress to the magnetic pressure, and / , the ratio of radial to toroidal magnetic field energy. For the initial conditions considered here, adequate resolution is characterized by (Q{sub z} ) {>=} 15, (Q{sub {phi}}) {>=} 20, {alpha}{sub mag} Almost-Equal-To 0.45, and / {approx}0.2. These values are associated with {>=}35 zones per scaleheight H, a result consistent with shearing box simulations. Numerical algorithm is also important. Use of the Harten-Lax-van Leer-Einfeldt flux solver or second-order interpolation can significantly degrade the effective resolution compared to the Harten-Lax-van Leer discontinuities flux solver and third-order interpolation. Resolution at this standard can be achieved only with large numbers of grid zones, arranged in a fashion that matches the symmetries of the problem and the scientific goals of the simulation. Without it, however, quantitative measures important to predictions of observables are subject to large systematic errors.

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SEARCH FOR SUPERMASSIVE BLACK HOLE BINARIES IN THE SLOAN DIGITAL SKY SURVEY SPECTROSCOPIC SAMPLE

Supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries are expected in a ΛCDM cosmology given that most (if not all) massive galaxies contain a massive black hole (BH) at their center. So far, however, direct evidence for such binaries has been elusive. We use cross-correlation to search for temporal velocity shifts in the Mg II broad emission lines of 0.36 < z < 2 quasars with multiple observations in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. For ∼10{sup 9} M{sub ☉} BHs in SMBH binaries, we are sensitive to velocity drifts for binary separations of ∼0.1 pc with orbital periods of ∼100 yr. We find seven candidate sub-parsec-scale binaries with velocity shifts >3.4σ ∼ 280 km s{sup –1}, where σ is our systematic error. Comparing the detectability of SMBH binaries with the number of candidates (N ≤ 7), we can rule out that most 10{sup 9} M{sub ☉} BHs exist in ∼0.03-0.2 pc scale binaries, in a scenario where binaries stall at sub-parsec scales for a Hubble time. We further constrain that ≤16% (one-third) of quasars host SMBH binaries after considering gas-assisted sub-parsec evolution of SMBH binaries, although this result is very sensitive to the assumed size of the broad line region. We estimate the detectability of SMBH binaries with ongoing or next-generation surveys (e.g., Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey, Subaru Prime Focus Spectrograph), taking into account the evolution of the sub-parsec binary in circumbinary gas disks. These future observations will provide longer time baselines for searches similar to ours and may in turn constrain the evolutionary scenarios of SMBH binaries.

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LIKELIHOOD OF THE POWER SPECTRUM IN COSMOLOGICAL PARAMETER ESTIMATION

The likelihood function is a crucial element of parameter estimation. In analyses of galaxy overdensities and weak lensing shear, one often approximates the likelihood of the power spectrum with a Gaussian distribution. The posterior probability derived from such a likelihood deviates considerably from the exact posterior on the largest scales probed by any survey, where the central limit theorem does not apply. We show that various forms of Gaussian likelihoods can have a significant impact on the estimation of the primordial non-Gaussianity parameter f{sub NL} from the galaxy angular power spectrum. The Gaussian plus log-normal likelihood, which has been applied successfully in analyses of the cosmic microwave background, outperforms the Gaussian likelihoods. Nevertheless, even if the exact likelihood of the power spectrum is used, the estimated parameters may be still biased. As such, the likelihoods and estimators need to be thoroughly examined for potential systematic errors.

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The coyote universe extended: Precision emulation of the matter power spectrum

Modern sky surveys are returning precision measurements of cosmological statistics such as weak lensing shear correlations, the distribution of galaxies, and cluster abundance. To fully exploit these observations, theorists must provide predictions that are at least as accurate as the measurements, as well as robust estimates of systematic errors that are inherent to the modeling process. In the nonlinear regime of structure formation, this challenge can only be overcome by developing a large-scale, multi-physics simulation capability covering a range of cosmological models and astrophysical processes. As a first step to achieving this goal, we have recently developed a prediction scheme for the matter power spectrum (a so-called emulator), accurate at the 1% level out to k ∼ 1 Mpc{sup –1} and z = 1 for wCDM cosmologies based on a set of high-accuracy N-body simulations. It is highly desirable to increase the range in both redshift and wavenumber and to extend the reach in cosmological parameter space. To make progress in this direction, while minimizing computational cost, we present a strategy that maximally reuses the original simulations. We demonstrate improvement over the original spatial dynamic range by an order of magnitude, reaching k ∼ 10 h Mpc{sup –1}, a four-fold increase in redshift coverage, to z = 4, and now include the Hubble parameter as a new independent variable. To further the range in k and z, a new set of nested simulations run at modest cost is added to the original set. The extension in h is performed by including perturbation theory results within a multi-scale procedure for building the emulator. This economical methodology still gives excellent error control, ∼5% near the edges of the domain of applicability of the emulator. A public domain code for the new emulator is released as part of the work presented in this paper.

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How good a clock is rotation? The stellar rotation-mass-age relationship for old field stars

The rotation-mass-age relationship offers a promising avenue for measuring the ages of field stars, assuming the attendant uncertainties to this technique can be well characterized. We model stellar angular momentum evolution starting with a rotation distribution from open cluster M37. Our predicted rotation-mass-age relationship shows significant zero-point offsets compared to an alternative angular momentum loss law and published gyrochronology relations. Systematic errors at the 30% level are permitted by current data, highlighting the need for empirical guidance. We identify two fundamental sources of uncertainty that limit the precision of rotation-based ages and quantify their impact. Stars are born with a range of rotation rates, which leads to an age range at fixed rotation period. We find that the inherent ambiguity from the initial conditions is important for all young stars, and remains large for old stars below 0.6 M {sub ☉}. Latitudinal surface differential rotation also introduces a minimum uncertainty into rotation period measurements and, by extension, rotation-based ages. Both models and the data from binary star systems 61 Cyg and α Cen demonstrate that latitudinal differential rotation is the limiting factor for rotation-based age precision among old field stars, inducing uncertainties at the ∼2 Gyr level. We also examine the relationship between variability amplitude, rotation period, and age. Existing ground-based surveys can detect field populations with ages as old as 1-2 Gyr, while space missions can detect stars as old as the Galactic disk. In comparison with other techniques for measuring the ages of lower main sequence stars, including geometric parallax and asteroseismology, rotation-based ages have the potential to be the most precise chronometer for 0.6-1.0 M {sub ☉} stars.

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Massive star-forming host galaxies of quasars on Sloan digital sky survey stripe 82

The stellar properties of about 800 galaxies hosting optically luminous, unobscured quasars at z < 0.6 are analyzed. Deep co-added Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) images of the quasars on Stripe 82 are decomposed into nucleus and host galaxy using point spread function and Sérsic models. The systematic errors in the measured galaxy absolute magnitudes and colors are estimated to be less than 0.5 mag and 0.1 mag, respectively, with simulated quasar images. The effect of quasar light scattered by the interstellar medium is also carefully addressed. The measured quasar-to-galaxy ratio in total flux decreases toward longer wavelengths, from ∼8 in the u band to ∼1 in the i and z bands. We find that the SDSS quasars are hosted exclusively by massive galaxies (stellar mass M {sub star} > 10{sup 10} M {sub ☉}), which is consistent with previous results for less luminous narrow-line (obscured) active galactic nuclei (AGNs). The quasar hosts are very blue and almost absent on the red sequence, showing stark contrast to the color-magnitude distribution of normal galaxies. The fact that more powerful AGNs reside in galaxies with higher star-formation efficiency may indicate that negative AGN feedback, if it exists, is not concurrent with the most luminous phase of AGNs. We also find positive correlation between the mass of supermassive black holes (SMBHs; M {sub BH}) and host stellar mass, but the M {sub BH}-M {sub star} relation is offset toward large M {sub BH} or small M {sub star} compared to the local relation. While this could indicate that SMBHs grow earlier than do their host galaxies, such an argument is not conclusive, as the effect may be dominated by observational biases.

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Metallicity inhomogeneities in local star-forming galaxies as a sign of recent metal-poor gas accretion

We measure the oxygen metallicity of the ionized gas along the major axis of seven dwarf star-forming galaxies. Two of them, SDSSJ1647+21 and SDSSJ2238+14, show ≅0.5 dex metallicity decrements in inner regions with enhanced star formation activity. This behavior is similar to the metallicity drop observed in a number of local tadpole galaxies by Sánchez Almeida et al., and was interpreted as showing early stages of assembling in disk galaxies, with the star formation sustained by external metal-poor gas accretion. The agreement with tadpoles has several implications. (1) It proves that galaxies other than the local tadpoles present the same unusual metallicity pattern. (2) Our metallicity inhomogeneities were inferred using the direct method, thus discarding systematic errors usually attributed to other methods. (3) Taken together with the tadpole data, our findings suggest a threshold around one-tenth the solar value for the metallicity drops to show up. Although galaxies with clear metallicity drops are rare, the physical mechanism responsible for them may sustain a significant part of the star formation activity in the local universe. We argue that the star formation dependence of the mass-metallicity relationship, as well as other general properties followed by most local disk galaxies, is naturally interpreted as side effects of pristine gas infall. Alternatives to the metal-poor gas accretion are examined as well.

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The magnetic field of active region 11158 during the 2011 February 12-17 flares: Differences between photospheric extrapolation and coronal forward-fitting methods

We developed a coronal nonlinear force-free field (COR-NLFFF) forward-fitting code that fits an approximate nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) solution to the observed geometry of automatically traced coronal loops. In contrast to photospheric NLFFF codes, which calculate a magnetic field solution from the constraints of the transverse photospheric field, this new code uses coronal constraints instead, and this way provides important information on systematic errors of each magnetic field calculation method, as well as on the non-force-freeness in the lower chromosphere. In this study we applied the COR-NLFFF code to NOAA Active Region 11158, during the time interval of 2011 February 12-17, which includes an X2.2 GOES-class flare plus 35 M- and C-class flares. We calculated the free magnetic energy with a 6 minute cadence over 5 days. We find good agreement between the two types of codes for the total nonpotential E{sub N} and potential energy E{sub P} but find up to a factor of 4 discrepancy in the free energy E {sub free} = E{sub N} – E{sub P} and up to a factor of 10 discrepancy in the decrease of the free energy ΔE {sub free} during flares. The coronal NLFFF code exhibits a larger time variability and yields a decrease of free energy during the flare that is sufficient to satisfy the flare energy budget, while the photospheric NLFFF code shows much less time variability and an order of magnitude less free-energy decrease during flares. The discrepancy may partly be due to the preprocessing of photospheric vector data but more likely is due to the non-force-freeness in the lower chromosphere. We conclude that the coronal field cannot be correctly calculated on the basis of photospheric data alone and requires additional information on coronal loop geometries.

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Verification of the helioseismology travel-time measurement technique and the inversion procedure for sound speed using artificial data

We performed three-dimensional numerical simulations of the solar surface acoustic wave field for the quiet Sun and for three models with different localized sound-speed perturbations in the interior with deep, shallow, and two-layer structures. We used the simulated data generated by two solar acoustics codes that employ the same standard solar model as a background model, but utilize different integration techniques and different models of stochastic wave excitation. Acoustic travel times were measured using a time-distance helioseismology technique, and compared with predictions from ray theory frequently used for helioseismic travel-time inversions. It is found that the measured travel-time shifts agree well with the helioseismic theory for sound-speed perturbations, and for the measurement procedure with and without phase-speed filtering of the oscillation signals. This testing verifies the whole measuring-filtering-inversion procedure for static sound-speed anomalies with small amplitude inside the Sun outside regions of strong magnetic field. It is shown that the phase-speed filtering, frequently used to extract specific wave packets and improve the signal-to-noise ratio, does not introduce significant systematic errors. Results of the sound-speed inversion procedure show good agreement with the perturbation models in all cases. Due to its smoothing nature, the inversion procedure may overestimate sound-speed variations in regions with sharp gradients of the sound-speed profile.

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Parallax beyond a kiloparsec from spatially scanning the wide field Camera 3 on the Hubble space telescope

We use a newly developed observing mode on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and Wide Field Camera 3, spatial scanning, to increase source sampling a thousand-fold and measure changes in source positions to a precision of 20-40 μas, more than an order of magnitude better than attainable in pointed observations. This observing mode can usefully measure the parallaxes of bright stars at distances of up to 5 kpc, a factor of 10 farther than achieved thus far with HST. The technique should also provide a unique crosscheck of future parallax measurements from Gaia. Long-period classical Cepheid variable stars in the Milky Way, nearly all of which reside beyond 1 kpc, are especially compelling targets for parallax measurements from scanning, as they may be used to anchor a determination of the Hubble constant to ∼1%. We illustrate the method by measuring to high precision the parallax of a classical Cepheid, SY Aurigae, at a distance of more than 2 kpc, using five epochs of spatial-scan data obtained at intervals of six months. Rapid spatial scans also enable photometric measurements of bright Milky Way Cepheids—which would otherwise saturate even in the shortest possible pointed observations—on the same flux scale as extragalactic Cepheids, which is a necessity for reducing a leading source of systematic error in the Hubble constant. We demonstrate this capability with photometric measurements of SY Aur on the same system used for Cepheids in Type Ia supernova host galaxies. While the technique and results presented here are preliminary, an ongoing program with HST is collecting such parallax measurements for another 18 Cepheids to produce a better anchor for the distance scale.

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The diffuse source at the center of LMC SNR 0509–67.5 is a background galaxy at z = 0.031

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are well-known for their use in the measurement of cosmological distances, but our continuing lack of concrete knowledge about their progenitor stars is both a matter of debate and a source of systematic error. In our attempts to answer this question, we presented unambiguous evidence that LMC SNR 0509–67.5, the remnant of an SN Ia that exploded in the Large Magellanic Cloud 400 ± 50 yr ago, did not have any point sources (stars) near the site of the original supernova explosion, from which we concluded that this particular supernova must have had a progenitor system consisting of two white dwarfs. There is, however, evidence of nebulosity near the center of the remnant, which could have been left over detritus from the less massive WD, or could have been a background galaxy unrelated to the supernova explosion. We obtained long-slit spectra of the central nebulous region using GMOS on Gemini South to determine which of these two possibilities is correct. The spectra show Hα emission at a redshift of z = 0.031, which implies that the nebulosity in the center of LMC SNR 0509–67.5 is a background galaxy, unrelated to the supernova.

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Consistent use of type Ia supernovae highly magnified by galaxy clusters to constrain the cosmological parameters

We discuss how Type Ia supernovae (SNe) strongly magnified by foreground galaxy clusters should be self-consistently treated when used in samples fitted for the cosmological parameters. While the cluster lens magnification of a SN can be well constrained from sets of multiple images of various background galaxies with measured redshifts, its value is typically dependent on the fiducial set of cosmological parameters used to construct the mass model. In such cases, one should not naively demagnify the observed SN luminosity by the model magnification into the expected Hubble diagram, which would create a bias, but instead take into account the cosmological parameters a priori chosen to construct the mass model. We quantify the effect and find that a systematic error of typically a few percent, up to a few dozen percent per magnified SN may be propagated onto a cosmological parameter fit unless the cosmology assumed for the mass model is taken into account (the bias can be even larger if the SN is lying very near the critical curves). We also simulate how such a bias propagates onto the cosmological parameter fit using the Union2.1 sample supplemented with strongly magnified SNe. The resulting bias on the deduced cosmological parameters is generally at the few percent level, if only few biased SNe are included, and increases with the number of lensed SNe and their redshift. Samples containing magnified Type Ia SNe, e.g., from ongoing cluster surveys, should readily account for this possible bias.

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