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At least 775 records · Page 43

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NASA NTRS2008

A Comparison of Probabilistic and Deterministic Campaign Analysis for Human Space Exploration

Human space exploration is by its very nature an uncertain endeavor. Vehicle reliability, technology development risk, budgetary uncertainty, and launch uncertainty all contribute to stochasticity in an exploration scenario. However, traditional strategic analysis has been done in a deterministic manner, analyzing and optimizing the performance of a series of planned missions. History has shown that exploration scenarios rarely follow such a planned schedule. This paper describes a methodology to integrate deterministic and probabilistic analysis of scenarios in support of human space exploration. Probabilistic strategic analysis is used to simulate "possible" scenario outcomes, based upon the likelihood of occurrence of certain events and a set of pre-determined contingency rules. The results of the probabilistic analysis are compared to the nominal results from the deterministic analysis to evaluate the robustness of the scenario to adverse events and to test and optimize contingency planning.

Merrill, R. Gabe↗

DOE OSTI2022

Water Power Technologies Office: Multi-Year Program Plan

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) has released its first Multi-Year Program Plan (MYPP), which outlines the Office’s research priorities and plans through 2025. Cover of the WPTO MYPP 2022. The MYPP serves as both a strategic vision and an operational guide to help WPTO manage and coordinate its activities, as well as a vehicle to communicate WPTO’s mission, goals, and plans to water power stakeholders and the public. It details WPTO’s research, development, demonstration, and commercial activities across both hydropower and marine energy for the coming years and outlines how these efforts can help meet the nation’s energy and sustainability goals. The MYPP features key performance goals for 2025, as well as additional objectives running through 2030. All outlined goals contribute to the overarching mission of WPTO to enable research, development, and testing of new technologies to advance marine energy and hydropower systems for a flexible, reliable grid.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

ARM FY2025 Radar Plan

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility is dedicated to delivering high-quality radar data that significantly advance our understanding of cloud and precipitation processes, improving climate models. With radars operating across diverse frequencies, scanning modes, and global climate conditions, extensive staffing is essential for effective management. Due to current staffing constraints, achieving the expected level of operational excellence requires a more strategic approach. To address this challenge, ARM has developed an operational radar plan for the upcoming Fiscal Year 2025 (FY25) based on budget and staffing considerations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Community Energy Planning: Best Practices and Lessons Learned in NREL's Work with Communities

The clean energy transition is accelerating due to local, state, and national actions combined with external market forces. Regardless of where goals are set and decisions are made, clean energy deployment occurs on the ground in communities. As a result, communities increasingly need technical expertise and assistance with planning for and managing the energy transition. Building on decades of work with state, local, and tribal jurisdictions, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) increasingly provides community-driven modeling, analysis, and technical assistance to enable more data-driven and equitable community energy planning. To inform and enhance NREL's capabilities in community energy planning and provide a resource for others working in this space, the Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis (JISEA) Sustainable Communities Catalyzer supported this best-practices presentation based on interviews with seasoned NREL practitioners and a literature review on equitable community energy planning. Findings include five best practices for community energy planning that NREL practitioners and others can apply to strengthen their impact: 1) do your homework in preparation for community interactions; 2) be humble, authentic, and honest in your interactions with community members; 3) respect community agency in every step of the process; 4) meet the community where they are; 5) democratize participation.

best practices↗

DOE OSTI2020

Los Alamos National Laboratory Hazardous Waste Facility Permit Community Relations Plan

The requirements of the Hazardous Waste Facility Permit are fulfilled through execution of LANL's fourth strategic goal: “Enabling mission delivery through next-generation facility, infrastructure, and operational excellence.” With input from our stakeholders, we will continue to fulfill those requirements and to improve our waste operations. In 2015, the Laboratory purpose statement focused waste management efforts by directing delivery of mission success through operational effectiveness and scientific excellence. This Plan advances that purpose through community involvement. In the process of achieving our national security mission, Los Alamos National Laboratory generates some hazardous and mixed waste. Hazardous waste is solid waste that is dangerous or potentially harmful to human health or the environment. Hazardous wastes can be liquids, solids, gases, or sludges. They can be discarded as commercial products, such as cleaning fluids or pesticides, or as the byproducts of operations. Specific substances are listed in 40 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR), Part 261: 40 CFR Part 261. Hazardous waste management activities are regulated by the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency and the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED) pursuant to New Mexico Hazardous Waste Act (HWA; Chapter 74, Article 4 NMSA 1978) and regulations under the Act. In 1989, NMED issued the Hazardous Waste Facility Permit (EPA ID Number NM0890010515-1) that established standards for the Laboratory to manage, store, and treat hazardous wastes on-site and to undertake the closure, post closure care, and cleanup as necessary, of permitted waste management units. On November 30, 2010, NMED renewed the Hazardous Waste Facility Permit (the Permit). In June 2020 the Permittees submitted a permit renewal application to the NMED for their review and approval. The Hazardous Waste Facility Permit Community Relations Plan (CRP) describes the scope of public involvement in the activities of the Permit. The CRP is specifically designed to facilitate the community outreach, engagement, and relations activities concerning the Laboratory’s Hazardous Waste Facility Permit and coordinates with but does not include public involvement for other Laboratory programs, initiatives, or environmental activities.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS2000

Aeroassist Technology Planning for Exploration

Now that the International Space Station is undergoing assembly, NASA is strategizing about the next logical exploration strategy for robotic missions and the next destination for humans. NASA's current efforts are in developing technologies that will both aid the robotic exploration strategy and make human flight to other celestial bodies both safe and affordable. One of these enabling technologies for future robotic and human exploration missions is aeroassist. This paper will (1) define aeroassist, (2) explain the benefits and uses of aeroassist, and (3) describe a method, currently used by the NASA Aeroassist Working Group, by which widely geographically distributed teams can assemble, present, use, and archive technology information.

Munk, Michelle M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Advanced Simulation and Computing (FY22 Implementation Plan Rev 0)

The DOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP) is an integrated technical program for maintaining the safety, surety, and reliability of the U.S. nuclear stockpile. The SSP incorporates nuclear test data, computational modeling and simulation, and experimental facilities to advance understanding of nuclear weapons. The suite of data analyzed comes from activities including stockpile surveillance, experimental research, and development and engineering programs. This integrated national program requires the continued use of experimental facilities and the computational capabilities to support the SSP missions. These component parts, in addition to an appropriately scaled production capability, enable NNSA to support stockpile requirements. The ultimate goal of the SSP, and thus of the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) Program, is to ensure that the U.S. maintains a safe, secure, and effective strategic deterrent. Specific work activities and scope contained in this Implementation Plan (IP) represent the full-year annual operating plan for FY22. The Initial IP, effective , should be consistent with the Department’s Base Table when operating under a Continuing Resolution (CR). The final IP, effective date TBD, is consistent with the final, enacted appropriation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2023

Field‐scale analysis of miscanthus production indicates climate change may increase the opportunity for water quality improvement in a key Iowa watershed

Abstract The Raccoon River Basin is the primary source for drinking water in Iowa's largest city and plays a major role in the Mississippi River Basin's high nutrient exports. Future climate change may have major impacts on the biological, physiological, and agronomic processes imposing a threat to ecosystem services. Efforts to reduce nitrogen (N) loads within this basin have included local litigation and the implementation of the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy, which suggest incorporating bioenergy crops (i.e., miscanthus) within the current corn–soybean landscape to reach a 41% reduction in nitrate loads. This study focuses on simulating N export for historical and future land use scenarios by using an agroecosystem model (Agro‐IBIS) and a hydrology model (THMB) at the 500‐m resolution, similar to the scale of agricultural fields. Model simulations are driven by CMIP5 climate data for historical, mid‐century, and late‐century under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 warming projections. Using recent crop profit analyses for the state of Iowa, profitability maps were generated and nitrogen leaching thresholds were used to determine where miscanthus should replace corn–soybean area to maximize reductions in N pollution. Our results show that miscanthus inclusion on low profit and high N leaching areas can result in a 4% reduction of N loss under current climate conditions and may reduce N loss by 21%–26% under future climate conditions, implying that water quality has the potential continue to improve under future climate conditions when strategically implemented conservation practices are included in future farm management plans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Risks to the DOW Mission From Global Advanced Energy Adoption

Advanced energy technologies have the potential to enhance energy security and resilience; however, they can introduce new vulnerabilities even as they mitigate existing ones. This dichotomy highlights that both action and inaction carry strategic risks in a contested and logistically complex operating environment. Regardless of U.S. civilian or military adoption of such technologies, key allies and adversaries are on adoption paths that will impact the U.S. military at the tactical, operational, and strategic level. The global adoption of advanced energy technologies presents the potential for both positive and negative consequences for U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) missions in the next 10-20 years. Three categories of risk drivers are presented in this analysis: infrastructure-related, adoption-related, and response-related. Each risk type can generate consequences for DOD, including power disruptions, suboptimal DOD mission performance and operational effectiveness, higher costs and shortages for both legacy and advanced energy technologies, and loss of U.S. influence and strategic deterrent value. Specific impacts could include tactical impacts, operational impacts, and strategic impacts. Mitigation strategies could include energy resource and technology planning, cybersecurity, supply chain resilience, workforce development, exercises and simulations, investments in commercialized technology, operational testing and pilot programs, research into emerging technologies, partnerships and working groups, common standards, budget planning, and repurposing infrastructure.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1992

Lunar Resource Assessment: Strategies for Surface Exploration

Use of the indigenous resources of space to support long-term human presence is an essential element of the settlement of other planetary bodies. We are in a very early stage of understanding exactly how and under what circumstances space resources will become important. The materials and processes to recover them that we now think are critical may not ultimately be the raison d'etre for a resource utilization program. However, the need for strategic thinking proceeds in parallel with efforts to implement such plans and it is not too soon to begin thinking how we could and should use the abundant resources of materials and energy available from the Moon. The following commodities from the Moon are discussed: (1) bulk regolith, for shielding and construction on the lunar surface (ultimately for export to human-tended stations in Earth-Moon space), and (2) oxygen and hydrogen, for propellant and life support.

Spudis, Paul D.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Estimating the costs of human space exploration

The plan for NASA's new exploration initiative has the following strategic themes: (1) incremental, logical evolutionary development; (2) economic viability; and (3) excellence in management. The cost estimation process is involved with all of these themes and they are completely dependent upon the engineering cost estimator for success. The purpose is to articulate the issues associated with beginning this major new government initiative, to show how NASA intends to resolve them, and finally to demonstrate the vital importance of a leadership role by the cost estimation community.

Mandell, Humboldt C., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2008

2007 Ikhana Western States and Southern California Emergency UAS Fire Missions

Four demonstration and four emergency fire imaging missions completed: a) Thermal infrared imagery delivered in near real-time (5 to 15 minutes) to: 1) SoCal Emergency: FEMA, NIFC, NorthCom, California EOC; 2) Demo Flights: NIFC, Individual Fire Incident Commands. Imagery used for tactical and strategic decision making. Air Traffic Control gave excellent support. Mission plans flown in reverse. Real time requests for revisits of active fires. Added new fire during mission. Moved fire loiter points as fires moved. Real-time reroute around thunderstorm activity. Pre & Post flight telecons with FAA were held to review mission and discuss operational improvements. No issues with air traffic control during the 8 fire missions flown.

Cobleigh, Brent↗

NASA NTRS2010

Toward Malaria Risk Prediction in Afghanistan Using Remote Sensing

Malaria causes more than one million deaths every year worldwide, with most of the mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is also a significant public health concern in Afghanistan, with approximately 60% of the population, or nearly 14 million people, living in a malaria-endemic area. Malaria transmission has been shown to be dependent on a number of environmental and meteorological variables. For countries in the tropics and the subtropics, rainfall is normally the most important variable, except for regions with high altitude where temperature may also be important. Afghanistan s diverse landscape contributes to the heterogeneous malaria distribution. Understanding the environmental effects on malaria transmission is essential to the effective control of malaria in Afghanistan. Provincial malaria data gathered by Health Posts in 23 provinces during 2004-2007 are used in this study. Remotely sensed geophysical parameters, including precipitation from TRMM, and surface temperature and vegetation index from MODIS are used to derive the empirical relationship between malaria cases and these geophysical parameters. Both neural network methods and regression analyses are used to examine the environmental dependency of malaria transmission. And the trained models are used for predicting future transmission. While neural network methods are intrinsically more adaptive for nonlinear relationship, the regression approach lends itself in providing statistical significance measures. Our results indicate that NDVI is the strongest predictor. This reflects the role of irrigation, instead of precipitation, in Afghanistan for agricultural production. The second strongest prediction is surface temperature. Precipitation is not shown as a significant predictor, contrary to other malarious countries in the tropics or subtropics. With the regression approach, the malaria time series are modelled well, with average R2 of 0.845. For cumulative 6-month prediction of malaria cases, the average provincial accuracy reaches 91%. The developed predictive and early warning capabilities support the Third Strategic Approach of the WHO EMRO Malaria Control and Elimination Plan.

Safi, N.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Autonomous Operations Planner: A Flexible Platform for Research in Flight-Deck Support for Airborne Self-Separation

The Autonomous Operations Planner (AOP), developed by NASA, is a flexible and powerful prototype of a flight-deck automation system to support self-separation of aircraft. The AOP incorporates a variety of algorithms to detect and resolve conflicts between the trajectories of its own aircraft and traffic aircraft while meeting route constraints such as required times of arrival and avoiding airspace hazards such as convective weather and restricted airspace. This integrated suite of algorithms provides flight crew support for strategic and tactical conflict resolutions and conflict-free trajectory planning while en route. The AOP has supported an extensive set of experiments covering various conditions and variations on the self-separation concept, yielding insight into the system s design and resolving various challenges encountered in the exploration of the concept. The design of the AOP will enable it to continue to evolve and support experimentation as the self-separation concept is refined.

Karr, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Framework for the Cross-Sectoral Integration of Multi-Model Impact Projections: Land Use Decisions Under Climate Impacts Uncertainties

Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impactmodel setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making

farmlands↗

DOE OSTI2023

Establishment of an Intertribal Technical Energy Providers Network (Final Technical Report)

The Midwest Tribal Energy Resources Association (MTERA) embarked on a 5-year (extended to 7-year) initiative aimed at advancing Tribal energy resilience and sustainability through intertribal collaboration. By bringing together Tribes in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan (EPA Region 5 Tribes), the project's scope encompassed organizational growth, governance and management formalization and enhancement, and the planning and deployment of energy-related services to Member Tribes. MTERA strategically pursued four key objectives to fulfill its mission: 1. Clearinghouse Development: Creation of a centralized hub offering valuable information, education, and outreach for Tribal communities and their neighbors. 2. Policy Liaison: Serving as a vital link between federal and state agencies to contribute to the formulation of inclusive energy policies that ensure both Tribal and regional energy success. 3. Energy Planning and Research: Providing essential support for energy planning, researching financing opportunities, and exploring effective procurement strategies. 4. Training Support: Facilitating training and apprenticeship initiatives to empower the Tribal workforce and enhance community capabilities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

BioGeoChemistry of Actinides (LLNL SFA OBER - SBR FY20 Program Management and Performance Report)

The focus of the BioGeoChemistry of Actinides SFA is to identify and quantify the biogeochemical processes and the underlying mechanisms that control actinide mobility in an effort to reliably predict and control the cycling and migration of actinides in the environment. The research approach includes: (1) Field Studies (Research Thrust 1) that capture actinide behavior on the timescale of decades and (2) Fundamental Laboratory Studies (Research Thrust 2) that isolate specific biogeochemical processes observed in the field. These research thrusts are underpinned by the unique capabilities and staff expertise at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), allowing the BioGeoChemistry of Actinides SFA to advance our understanding of actinide migration behavior in the environment, and serve as an international resource for environmental radiochemistry research (Figure 1). Research Thrusts 1 and 2 are guided by broad central hypotheses: Thrust 1 Hypothesis: Biogeochemical processes occurring on the timescale of years to decades lead to greater actinide recalcitrance in sediments and limit their migration in surface and groundwater. Thrust 2 Hypothesis: Long-term biogeochemical processes include mineral and surface alteration, which leads to stabilization of actinide surface associations or incorporation into mineral precipitates. Our strategic goal is to use the knowledge gained from our Science Plan to advance our understanding of the behavior of actinides, providing DOE with the scientific basis for remediation and long-term stewardship of DOE’s legacy sites and, more broadly, increasing our understanding of transport phenomena in environmental systems sciences with a particular emphasis on environmentally relevant (long-term) timescales. Although our focus is on actinide biogeochemistry, the increased focus on biogeochemistry at unique Test Bed locations associated with this SFA is providing fundamental information on redox processes and associated microbiological processes that control the cycling of redox sensitive metals under dynamic and transient biogeochemical conditions.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2022

BioGeoChemistry at Interfaces (LLNL SFA OBER FY22 Program Management and Performance Report)

The focus of the BioGeoChemistry at Interfaces SFA is to identify and quantify the biogeochemical processes and the underlying mechanisms that control actinide mobility in an effort to reliably predict and control the cycling and migration of actinides in the environment. The research approach includes: (1) Field Studies that capture actinide behavior on the timescale of decades (Research Thrust 1), and (2) Fundamental Laboratory Studies that isolate specific biogeochemical processes observed in the field (Research Thrust 2). These Research Thrusts are underpinned by the unique capabilities and staff expertise at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, allowing the BioGeoChemistry at Interfaces SFA to advance our understanding of actinide migration behavior in the environment, and serve as an resource for environmental radiochemistry research internationally. In the past year, our greater focus on transient redox gradients across stratified waters, sediment-water interfaces, and mineral-water interfaces extended our research beyond actinides to address processes controlling cycling of redox-sensitive metals more broadly. Nevertheless, Research Thrusts 1 and 2 are guided by the following broad central hypotheses that were developed during our last program review held at the end of FY18: Thrust 1 Hypothesis: Biogeochemical processes occurring on the timescale of years to decades lead to greater actinide recalcitrance in sediments and limits their migration in surface and groundwater. Thrust 2 Hypothesis: Long-term biogeochemical processes include mineral and surface alteration, which leads to stabilization of actinide surface associations or incorporation into mineral precipitates. Our strategic goal is to use the knowledge gained from our Science Plan to advance our understanding of the behavior of actinides and other radionuclides (e.g. Cs) and provide DOE with the scientific basis for remediation and long-term stewardship of DOE’s legacy sites. More broadly, we will enhance our understanding of transport phenomena in environmental systems sciences with a particular emphasis on environmentally relevant (long-term) timescales. While we retain our focus on actinide biogeochemistry, our increased focus on overall biogeochemical processes occurring at unique Test Bed locations associated with this SFA provides fundamental information on abiotic and biotic redox processes that control the cycling of redox sensitive metals under dynamic and transient conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗