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At least 775 records · Page 43

Analytical design of multispectral sensors

An optimal design based on the criterion of minimum mean square representation error using the Karhunen-Loeve expansion was developed to represent the spectral response functions from a stratum based upon a stochastic process scene model. From the overall pattern recognition system perspective, the effect of the representation accuracy on a typical performance criterion (the probability of correct classification) is investigated. The optimum sensor design provides a standard against which practical (suboptimum) operational sensors can be compared. An example design is provided and its performance is illustrated. Although developed primarily for the purpose of sensor design, the procedure has potential for making important contributions to scene understanding. Spectral channels which have narrow bandwidths relative to current sensor systems may be necessary to provide adequate spectral representation and improved classification performance.

Wiersma, D. J.↗

Proceedings of the 3rd Annual SCOLE Workshop

Topics addressed include: modeling and controlling the Spacecraft Control Laboratory Experiment (SCOLE) configurations; slewing maneuvers; mathematical models; vibration damping; gravitational effects; structural dynamics; finite element method; distributed parameter system; on-line pulse control; stability augmentation; and stochastic processes.

Taylor, Lawrence W., Jr.↗

Providing an empirical basis for optimizing the verification and testing phases of software development

Applying equal testing and verification effort to all parts of a software system is not very efficient, especially when resources are limited and scheduling is tight. Therefore, one needs to be able to differentiate low/high fault density components so that the testing/verification effort can be concentrated where needed. Such a strategy is expected to detect more faults and thus improve the resulting reliability of the overall system. This paper presents an alternative approach for constructing such models that is intended to fulfill specific software engineering needs (i.e. dealing with partial/incomplete information and creating models that are easy to interpret). Our approach to classification is as follows: (1) to measure the software system to be considered; and (2) to build multivariate stochastic models for prediction. We present experimental results obtained by classifying FORTRAN components developed at the NASA/GSFC into two fault density classes: low and high. Also we evaluate the accuracy of the model and the insights it provides into the software process.

Briand, Lionel C.↗

Distributed state-space generation of discrete-state stochastic models

High-level formalisms such as stochastic Petri nets can be used to model complex systems. Analysis of logical and numerical properties of these models of ten requires the generation and storage of the entire underlying state space. This imposes practical limitations on the types of systems which can be modeled. Because of the vast amount of memory consumed, we investigate distributed algorithms for the generation of state space graphs. The distributed construction allows us to take advantage of the combined memory readily available on a network of workstations. The key technical problem is to find effective methods for on-the-fly partitioning, so that the state space is evenly distributed among processors. In this paper we report on the implementation of a distributed state-space generator that may be linked to a number of existing system modeling tools. We discuss partitioning strategies in the context of Petri net models, and report on performance observed on a network of workstations, as well as on a distributed memory multi-computer.

Ciardo, Gianfranco↗

A Scheduling Algorithm for Replicated Real-Time Tasks

We present an algorithm for scheduling real-time periodic tasks on a multiprocessor system under fault-tolerant requirement. Our approach incorporates both the redundancy and masking technique and the imprecise computation model. Since the tasks in hard real-time systems have stringent timing constraints, the redundancy and masking technique are more appropriate than the rollback techniques which usually require extra time for error recovery. The imprecise computation model provides flexible functionality by trading off the quality of the result produced by a task with the amount of processing time required to produce it. It therefore permits the performance of a real-time system to degrade gracefully. We evaluate the algorithm by stochastic analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that the algorithm is resilient under hardware failures.

Yu, Albert C.↗

Learning the Task Management Space of an Aircraft Approach Model

Validating models of airspace operations is a particular challenge. These models are often aimed at finding and exploring safety violations, and aim to be accurate representations of real-world behavior. However, the rules governing the behavior are quite complex: nonlinear physics, operational modes, human behavior, and stochastic environmental concerns all determine the responses of the system. In this paper, we present a study on aircraft runway approaches as modeled in Georgia Tech's Work Models that Compute (WMC) simulation. We use a new learner, Genetic-Active Learning for Search-Based Software Engineering (GALE) to discover the Pareto frontiers defined by cognitive structures. These cognitive structures organize the prioritization and assignment of tasks of each pilot during approaches. We discuss the benefits of our approach, and also discuss future work necessary to enable uncertainty quantification.

Validation↗

A REDUCED ORDER MODELING APPROACH TO PROBABILISTIC CREEP-DAMAGE PREDICTIONS IN FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS

This paper introduces a computationally efficient Reduced Order Modeling (ROM) approach for the probabilistic prediction of creep-damage failure. Component-level probabilistic simulations are needed to assess the reliability and safety of high-temperature components. Full-scale probabilistic creep-damage modeling in finite element (FE) approach is computationally expensive requiring many hundreds of simulations to replicate the uncertainty of component failure. To that end, ROM is proposed to minimize the elevated computational cost while controlling the loss of accuracy. It is proposed that full-scale probabilistic simulations can be completed in 1D at a reduced cost, the extremum conditions extracted, and those conditions applied for lower-cost 2D/3D probabilistic simulations of components that capture the mean and uncertainty of failure. The probabilistic Sine-hyperbolic (Sinh) model is selected which in previous work was calibrated to alloy 304 stainless steel. The Sinh model includes probability density functions (pdfs) for test condition (stress and temperature), initial damage (i.e. microstructure), and material properties uncertainty. The Sinh model is programmed into ANSYS finite element software using the USERCREEP.F material subroutine. First, the Sinh model and FE code are subject to verification and validation to ensure the accuracy of the simulations. Numerous Monte Carlo simulations are executed in a 1D model to generate probabilistic creep deformation, damage, and rupture data. This data is analyzed and the probabilistic parameters corresponding to extreme creep response are extracted. The ROM concept is applied where only the extreme conditions are applied in the 2D probabilistic prediction of a component. The probabilistic predictions between the 1D and 2D geometry is compared to assess ROM for creep. The accuracy of the probabilistic prediction employing the ROM approach will potentially reduce the time and cost of simulating complex engineering systems. Future studies will introduce multi-stage Sinh, stochasticity, and spatial uncertainty for improved prediction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Binomial Stochastic Framework for Efficiently Modeling Discrete Statistics of Convective Populations

Abstract Understanding the coupling between convective clouds and the general circulation, as well as addressing the gray zone problem in convective parameterization, requires insight into the genesis and maintenance of spatial patterns in cumulus cloud populations. In this study, a simple toy model for recreating populations of interacting convective objects as distributed over a two‐dimensional Eulerian grid is formulated to this purpose. Key elements at the foundation of the model include i) a fully discrete formulation for capturing discrete behavior in convective properties at small population sample sizes, ii) object age‐dependence for representing life‐cycle effects, and iii) a prognostic number budget allowing for object interactions and co‐existence of multiple species. A primary goal is to optimize the computational efficiency of this system. To this purpose the object birth rate is represented stochastically through a spatially aware Bernoulli process. The same binomial stochastic operator is applied to horizontal advection of objects, conserving discreteness in object number. The applicability to atmospheric convection as well as behavior implied by the formulation is assessed. Various simple applications of the BiOMi model (Binomial Objects on Microgrids) are explored, suggesting that important convective behavior can be captured at low computational cost. This includes i) subsampling effects and associated powerlaw scaling in the convective gray zone, ii) stochastic predator‐prey behavior, iii) the downscale turbulent energy cascade, and iv) simple forms of spatial organization and convective memory. Consequences and opportunities for convective parameterization in next‐generation weather and climate models are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Hybrid Energy System Workflow for Energy Portfolio Optimization

This manuscript develops a workflow, driven by data analytics algorithms, to support the optimization of the economic performance of an Integrated Energy System. The goal is to determine the optimum mix of capacities from a set of different energy producers (e.g., nuclear, gas, wind and solar). A stochastic-based optimizer is employed, based on Gaussian Process Modeling, which requires numerous samples for its training. Each sample represents a time series describing the demand, load, or other operational and economic profiles for various types of energy producers. These samples are synthetically generated using a reduced order modeling algorithm that reads a limited set of historical data, such as demand and load data from past years. Numerous data analysis methods are employed to construct the reduced order models, including, for example, the Auto Regressive Moving Average, Fourier series decomposition, and the peak detection algorithm. All these algorithms are designed to detrend the data and extract features that can be employed to generate synthetic time histories that preserve the statistical properties of the original limited historical data. The optimization cost function is based on an economic model that assesses the effective cost of energy based on two figures of merit: the specific cash flow stream for each energy producer and the total Net Present Value. An initial guess for the optimal capacities is obtained using the screening curve method. The results of the Gaussian Process model-based optimization are assessed using an exhaustive Monte Carlo search, with the results indicating reasonable optimization results. The workflow has been implemented inside the Idaho National Laboratory’s Risk Analysis and Virtual Environment (RAVEN) framework. The main contribution of this study addresses several challenges in the current optimization methods of the energy portfolios in IES: First, the feasibility of generating the synthetic time series of the periodic peak data; Second, the computational burden of the conventional stochastic optimization of the energy portfolio, associated with the need for repeated executions of system models; Third, the inadequacies of previous studies in terms of the comparisons of the impact of the economic parameters. The proposed workflow can provide a scientifically defendable strategy to support decision-making in the electricity market and to help energy distributors develop a better understanding of the performance of integrated energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Discrete Deterministic and Stochastic Petri Nets

Petri nets augmented with timing specifications gained a wide acceptance in the area of performance and reliability evaluation of complex systems exhibiting concurrency, synchronization, and conflicts. The state space of time-extended Petri nets is mapped onto its basic underlying stochastic process, which can be shown to be Markovian under the assumption of exponentially distributed firing times. The integration of exponentially and non-exponentially distributed timing is still one of the major problems for the analysis and was first attacked for continuous time Petri nets at the cost of structural or analytical restrictions. We propose a discrete deterministic and stochastic Petri net (DDSPN) formalism with no imposed structural or analytical restrictions where transitions can fire either in zero time or according to arbitrary firing times that can be represented as the time to absorption in a finite absorbing discrete time Markov chain (DTMC). Exponentially distributed firing times are then approximated arbitrarily well by geometric distributions. Deterministic firing times are a special case of the geometric distribution. The underlying stochastic process of a DDSPN is then also a DTMC, from which the transient and stationary solution can be obtained by standard techniques. A comprehensive algorithm and some state space reduction techniques for the analysis of DDSPNs are presented comprising the automatic detection of conflicts and confusions, which removes a major obstacle for the analysis of discrete time models.

MATHEMATICAL MODELS↗

TOF-SIMS analysis of decoherence sources in superconducting qubits

Superconducting qubits have emerged as a potentially foundational platform technology for addressing complex computational problems deemed intractable with classical computing. Despite recent advances enabling multiqubit designs that exhibit coherence lifetimes on the order of hundreds of μs, material quality and interfacial structures continue to curb device performance. Two-level system defects in the thin superconducting film and adjacent dielectric regions introduce stochastic noise and dissipate electromagnetic energy at the cryogenic operating temperatures. In this study, we utilize time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry to understand the role specific fabrication procedures play in introducing such dissipation mechanisms in these complex systems. We interrogated Nb thin films and transmon qubit structures fabricated through slight modifications in the processing and vacuum conditions. We find that when the Nb film is sputtered onto the Si substrate, oxide and silicide regions are generated at various interfaces. We also observe that impurity species, such as niobium hydrides and carbides, are incorporated within the niobium layer during the subsequent lithographic patterning steps. The formation of these resistive compounds likely impacts the superconducting properties of the Nb thin film. Additionally, we observe the presence of halogen species distributed throughout the patterned thin films. We conclude by hypothesizing the source of such impurities in these structures in an effort to intelligently fabricate superconducting qubits and extend coherence times moving forward.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Protein drift-diffusion dynamics and phase separation in curved cell membranes and dendritic spines: Hybrid discrete-continuum methods

We develop methods for investigating protein drift-diffusion dynamics in heterogeneous cell membranes and the roles played by geometry, diffusion, chemical kinetics, and phase separation. Our hybrid stochastic numerical methods combine discrete particle descriptions with continuum-level models for tracking the individual protein drift-diffusion dynamics when coupled to continuum fields. We show how our approaches can be used to investigate phenomena motivated by protein kinetics within dendritic spines. The spine geometry is hypothesized to play an important biological role regulating synaptic strength, protein kinetics, and self-assembly of clusters. We perform simulation studies for model spine geometries varying the neck size to investigate how phase-separation and protein organization is influenced by different shapes. We also show how our methods can be used to study the roles of geometry in reaction-diffusion systems including Turing instabilities. Furthermore, our methods provide general approaches for investigating protein kinetics and drift-diffusion dynamics within curved membrane structures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SSA Monte Carlo and Master Equation Modeling of Neutron Leakage Distributions

Strongly stochastic neutron populations in highly subcritical multiplying media containing weak spontaneous fission sources are unique indicators of the presence of SNM. For instance, in neutron multiplicity counting, an extended tail in the count number probability distribution is observed that is a characteristic of and sensitive to the amount of SNM present. Theoretical modeling and efficient computation of stochastic neutron distributions are complementary to experimental measurements and moreover shed light on the fundamental interactions and transport processes that underlie nuclear signatures. Modeling approaches that are intermediate between gross-system level models and high-fidelity but computationally demanding Monte Carlo simulations are of particular interest in this regard. Furthermore we present three advances on existing work in point kinetic or lumped geometry: (i) implementation of the Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA), a system state-updating Monte Carlo method that is more e cient than single-event Monte Carlo in lumped geometries, (ii) application of the backward Master equation to obtain time-gated count moments, and (iii) reconstructing the count number distribution from the deterministically computed moments using a generalized Laguerre polynomial expansion.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Improving Balance Function Using Low Levels of Electrical Stimulation of the Balance Organs

Crewmembers returning from long-duration space flight face significant challenges due to the microgravity-induced inappropriate adaptations in balance/ sensorimotor function. The Neuroscience Laboratory at JSC is developing a method based on stochastic resonance to enhance the brain s ability to detect signals from the balance organs of the inner ear and use them for rapid improvement in balance skill, especially when combined with balance training exercises. This method involves a stimulus delivery system that is wearable/portable providing imperceptible electrical stimulation to the balance organs of the human body. Stochastic resonance (SR) is a phenomenon whereby the response of a nonlinear system to a weak periodic input signal is optimized by the presence of a particular non-zero level of noise. This phenomenon of SR is based on the concept of maximizing the flow of information through a system by a non-zero level of noise. Application of imperceptible SR noise coupled with sensory input in humans has been shown to improve motor, cardiovascular, visual, hearing, and balance functions. SR increases contrast sensitivity and luminance detection; lowers the absolute threshold for tone detection in normal hearing individuals; improves homeostatic function in the human blood pressure regulatory system; improves noise-enhanced muscle spindle function; and improves detection of weak tactile stimuli using mechanical or electrical stimulation. SR noise has been shown to improve postural control when applied as mechanical noise to the soles of the feet, or when applied as electrical noise at the knee and to the back muscles.

Bloomberg, Jacob↗

A survey of unsupervised learning methods for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification in black-box-type problems

Constructing surrogate models for uncertainty quantification (UQ) on complex partial differential equations (PDEs) having inherently high-dimensional O(10 n ), n ≥ 2, stochastic inputs (e.g., forcing terms, boundary conditions, initial conditions) poses tremendous challenges. The “curse of dimensionality” can be addressed with suitable unsupervised learning techniques used as a pre-processing tool to encode inputs onto lower-dimensional subspaces while retaining its structural information and meaningful properties. In this work, we review and investigate thirteen dimension reduction methods including linear and nonlinear, spectral, blind source separation, convex and non-convex methods and utilize the resulting embeddings to construct a mapping to quantities of interest via polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). Here, we refer to the general proposed approach as manifold PCE (m-PCE), where manifold corresponds to the latent space resulting from any of the studied dimension reduction methods. To investigate the capabilities and limitations of these methods we conduct numerical tests for three physics-based systems (treated as black-boxes) having high-dimensional stochastic inputs of varying complexity modeled as both Gaussian and non-Gaussian random fields to investigate the effect of the intrinsic dimensionality of input data. We demonstrate both the advantages and limitations of the unsupervised learning methods and we conclude that a suitable m-PCE model provides a cost-effective approach compared to alternative algorithms proposed in the literature, including recently proposed expensive deep neural network-based surrogates and can be readily applied for high-dimensional UQ in stochastic PDEs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Stochasticity and positive feedback enable enzyme kinetics at the membrane to sense reaction size

Here, we present detailed kinetic analyses of a panel of soluble lipid kinases and phosphatases, as well as Ras activating proteins, acting on their respective membrane surface substrates. The results reveal that the mean catalytic rate of such interfacial enzymes can exhibit a strong dependence on the size of the reaction system—in this case membrane area. Experimental measurements and kinetic modeling reveal how stochastic effects stemming from low molecular copy numbers of the enzymes alter reaction kinetics based on mechanistic characteristics of the enzyme, such as positive feedback. For the competitive enzymatic cycles studied here, the final product—consisting of a specific lipid composition or Ras activity state—depends on the size of the reaction system. Furthermore, we demonstrate how these reaction size dependencies can be controlled by engineering feedback mechanisms into the enzymes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Estimation of characteristics and stochastic control of an aircraft flying in atmospheric turbulence

An adaptive control technique to improve the flying qualities of an aircraft in turbulence was investigated. The approach taken was to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the unknown coefficients of the aircraft system and then, using these estimates along with the separation principle, to define the stochastic optimal control. The maximum likelihood estimation technique that accounted for the effects of turbulence provided good estimates of the unknown coefficients and of the turbulence. The assessment of the stochastic optimal control based on the maximum likelihood estimates showed that the desired effects were attained for the regulator problem of minimizing pitch angle and the tracking problem of requiring normal acceleration to follow the pilot input.

Iliff, K. W.↗

A Simulation Framework for Analyzing the Impact of Stochastic Occupant Behaviors on Demand Flexibility in Typical Commercial Buildings

As one of the primary users of the electric grid, buildings and building equipment, including heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, can be leveraged to provide the flexible demand needed to balance the grid. Typical strategies to achieve demand flexibility are to reduce electricity use during peak or critical periods by shutting down equipment or relaxing system setpoints, which will inevitably impact the occupants’ comfort. When occupants feel uncomfortable, they may take actions to regain their comfort, and some of those actions (such as turning on a personal fan) may have a negative impact on meeting the demand response goal. Therefore, it is important to incorporate occupant behaviors into the assessment ofthe building demand flexibility potential. In this study, a simulation framework that includes simulation of zone thermal loads, an HVAC system, and occupant behaviors, was developed to investigate the impact of occupant behaviors on demand flexibility. A case study was conducted using a small office model from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Commercial Prototype Building Models to simulate the building envelope and zone loads. An agent-based occupant thermal behavior model was adapted to forecast occupants’ thermal comfort and their resulting thermal behaviors. An artificial neural network (ANN) based airflow model trained from a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of the zone was adopted to better predict the ambient environment of each occupant. An air-source heat pump simulation model that was calibrated from a real two-stage air-source heat pump system was used as the HVAC system. A typical load shedding event during peak hours was studied. Repeated simulations were conducted to capture the stochastic effects of occupant behaviors. The interplay between the demand flexibility, occupant comfort and behavior were analyzed by evaluating key performance indicators, including the energy use, occupant discomfort duration, and occupant behavior duration during the peak period. The results suggest that this framework can be used to analyze typical commercial buildings and their HVAC systems in terms ofdemand flexibility potential under the impact of occupant behaviors.

Chen, Zhelun↗