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LyMAS: Predicting large-scale Lyα forest statistics from the dark matter density field

We describe Lyα Mass Association Scheme (LyMAS), a method of predicting clustering statistics in the Lyα forest on large scales from moderate-resolution simulations of the dark matter (DM) distribution, with calibration from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations of smaller volumes. We use the 'Horizon-MareNostrum' simulation, a 50 h {sup –1} Mpc comoving volume evolved with the adaptive mesh hydrodynamic code RAMSES, to compute the conditional probability distribution P(F{sub s} |δ {sub s}) of the transmitted flux F{sub s} , smoothed (one-dimensionally, 1D) over the spectral resolution scale, on the DM density contrast δ {sub s}, smoothed (three-dimensionally, 3D) over a similar scale. In this study we adopt the spectral resolution of the SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) at z = 2.5, and we find optimal results for a DM smoothing length σ = 0.3 h {sup –1} Mpc (comoving). In its simplest form, LyMAS draws randomly from the hydro-calibrated P(F{sub s} |δ {sub s}) to convert DM skewers into Lyα forest pseudo-spectra, which are then used to compute cross-sightline flux statistics. In extended form, LyMAS exactly reproduces both the 1D power spectrum and one-point flux distribution of the hydro simulation spectra. Applied to the MareNostrum DM field, LyMAS accurately predicts the two-point conditional flux distribution and flux correlation function of the full hydro simulation for transverse sightline separations as small as 1 h {sup –1} Mpc, including redshift-space distortion effects. It is substantially more accurate than a deterministic density-flux mapping ({sup F}luctuating Gunn-Peterson Approximation{sup )}, often used for large-volume simulations of the forest. With the MareNostrum calibration, we apply LyMAS to 1024{sup 3} N-body simulations of a 300 h {sup –1} Mpc and 1.0 h {sup –1} Gpc cube to produce large, publicly available catalogs of mock BOSS spectra that probe a large comoving volume. LyMAS will be a powerful tool for interpreting 3D Lyα forest data, thereby transforming measurements from BOSS and other massive quasar absorption surveys into constraints on dark energy, DM, space geometry, and intergalactic medium physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Validation of Kepler's multiple planet candidates. II. Refined statistical framework and descriptions of systems of special interest

We extend the statistical analysis performed by Lissauer et al. in 2012, which demonstrates that the overwhelming majority of Kepler candidate multiple transiting systems (multis) represents true transiting planets, and we develop therefrom a procedure to validate large numbers of planet candidates in multis as bona fide exoplanets. We show that this statistical framework correctly estimates the abundance of false positives already identified around Kepler targets with multiple sets of transit-like signatures based on their abundance around targets with single sets of transit-like signatures. We estimate the number of multis that represent split systems of one or more planets orbiting each component of a binary star system. We use the high reliability rate for multis to validate more than one dozen particularly interesting multi-planet systems herein. Hundreds of additional multi-planet systems are validated in a companion paper by Rowe et al. We note that few very short period (P < 1.6 days) planets orbit within multiple transiting planet systems and discuss possible reasons for their absence. There also appears to be a shortage of planets with periods exceeding a few months in multis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Statistical analysis of the horizontal divergent flow in emerging solar active regions

Solar active regions (ARs) are thought to be formed by magnetic fields from the convection zone. Our flux emergence simulations revealed that a strong horizontal divergent flow (HDF) of unmagnetized plasma appears at the photosphere before the flux begins to emerge. In our earlier study, we analyzed HMI data for a single AR and confirmed presence of this precursor plasma flow in the actual Sun. In this paper, as an extension of our earlier study, we conducted a statistical analysis of the HDFs to further investigate their characteristics and better determine the properties. From SDO/HMI data, we picked up 23 flux emergence events over a period of 14 months, the total flux of which ranges from 10{sup 20} to 10{sup 22} Mx. Out of 23 selected events, 6 clear HDFs were detected by the method we developed in our earlier study, and 7 HDFs detected by visual inspection were added to this statistic analysis. We found that the duration of the HDF is on average 61 minutes and the maximum HDF speed is on average 3.1 km s{sup –1}. We also estimated the rising speed of the subsurface magnetic flux to be 0.6-1.4 km s{sup –1}. These values are highly consistent with our previous one-event analysis as well as our simulation results. The observation results lead us to the conclusion that the HDF is a rather common feature in the earliest phase of AR emergence. Moreover, our HDF analysis has the capability of determining the subsurface properties of emerging fields that cannot be directly measured.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A statistical analysis of seeds and other high-contrast exoplanet surveys: massive planets or low-mass brown dwarfs?

We conduct a statistical analysis of a combined sample of direct imaging data, totalling nearly 250 stars. The stars cover a wide range of ages and spectral types, and include five detections (κ And b, two ∼60 M {sub J} brown dwarf companions in the Pleiades, PZ Tel B, and CD–35 2722B). For some analyses we add a currently unpublished set of SEEDS observations, including the detections GJ 504b and GJ 758B. We conduct a uniform, Bayesian analysis of all stellar ages using both membership in a kinematic moving group and activity/rotation age indicators. We then present a new statistical method for computing the likelihood of a substellar distribution function. By performing most of the integrals analytically, we achieve an enormous speedup over brute-force Monte Carlo. We use this method to place upper limits on the maximum semimajor axis of the distribution function derived from radial-velocity planets, finding model-dependent values of ∼30-100 AU. Finally, we model the entire substellar sample, from massive brown dwarfs to a theoretically motivated cutoff at ∼5 M {sub J}, with a single power-law distribution. We find that p(M, a)∝M {sup –0.65} {sup ±} {sup 0.60} a {sup –0.85} {sup ±} {sup 0.39} (1σ errors) provides an adequate fit to our data, with 1.0%-3.1% (68% confidence) of stars hosting 5-70 M {sub J} companions between 10 and 100 AU. This suggests that many of the directly imaged exoplanets known, including most (if not all) of the low-mass companions in our sample, formed by fragmentation in a cloud or disk, and represent the low-mass tail of the brown dwarfs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DYNAMIC STABILITY OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM: STATISTICALLY INCONCLUSIVE RESULTS FROM ENSEMBLE INTEGRATIONS

Due to the chaotic nature of the solar system, the question of its long-term stability can only be answered in a statistical sense, for instance, based on numerical ensemble integrations of nearby orbits. Destabilization of the inner planets, leading to close encounters and/or collisions can be initiated through a large increase in Mercury's eccentricity, with a currently assumed likelihood of ∼1%. However, little is known at present about the robustness of this number. Here I report ensemble integrations of the full equations of motion of the eight planets and Pluto over 5 Gyr, including contributions from general relativity. The results show that different numerical algorithms lead to statistically different results for the evolution of Mercury's eccentricity (e{sub M}). For instance, starting at present initial conditions (e{sub M}≃0.21), Mercury's maximum eccentricity achieved over 5 Gyr is, on average, significantly higher in symplectic ensemble integrations using heliocentric rather than Jacobi coordinates and stricter error control. In contrast, starting at a possible future configuration (e{sub M}≃0.53), Mercury's maximum eccentricity achieved over the subsequent 500 Myr is, on average, significantly lower using heliocentric rather than Jacobi coordinates. For example, the probability for e{sub M} to increase beyond 0.53 over 500 Myr is >90% (Jacobi) versus only 40%-55% (heliocentric). This poses a dilemma because the physical evolution of the real system—and its probabilistic behavior—cannot depend on the coordinate system or the numerical algorithm chosen to describe it. Some tests of the numerical algorithms suggest that symplectic integrators using heliocentric coordinates underestimate the odds for destabilization of Mercury's orbit at high initial e{sub M}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

THE MATRYOSHKA RUN. II. TIME-DEPENDENT TURBULENCE STATISTICS, STOCHASTIC PARTICLE ACCELERATION, AND MICROPHYSICS IMPACT IN A MASSIVE GALAXY CLUSTER

We use the Matryoshka run to study the time-dependent statistics of structure-formation-driven turbulence in the intracluster medium of a 10{sup 15} M {sub ☉} galaxy cluster. We investigate the turbulent cascade in the inner megaparsec for both compressional and incompressible velocity components. The flow maintains approximate conditions of fully developed turbulence, with departures thereof settling in about an eddy-turnover time. Turbulent velocity dispersion remains above 700 km s{sup –1} even at low mass accretion rate, with the fraction of compressional energy between 10% and 40%. The normalization and the slope of the compressional turbulence are susceptible to large variations on short timescales, unlike the incompressible counterpart. A major merger occurs around redshift z ≅ 0 and is accompanied by a long period of enhanced turbulence, ascribed to temporal clustering of mass accretion related to spatial clustering of matter. We test models of stochastic acceleration by compressional modes for the origin of diffuse radio emission in galaxy clusters. The turbulence simulation model constrains an important unknown of this complex problem and brings forth its dependence on the elusive microphysics of the intracluster plasma. In particular, the specifics of the plasma collisionality and the dissipation physics of weak shocks affect the cascade of compressional modes with strong impact on the acceleration rates. In this context radio halos emerge as complex phenomena in which a hierarchy of processes acting on progressively smaller scales are at work. Stochastic acceleration by compressional modes implies statistical correlation of radio power and spectral index with merging cores distance, both testable in principle with radio surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE MAGNETIC HELICITY SIGNATURE OF THE SOLAR WIND TURBULENCE AT 1 AU

The absolute value of the magnetic helicity spectrum of the solar wind turbulence often has a peak at kinetic scales. This helicity signature is important for understanding the mechanism of the turbulent cascade. In this paper, a statistical analysis of the magnetic helicity is performed. For this purpose, a database of the solar wind intervals with the helicity signature was assembled using Wind spacecraft magnetic and plasma data. New statistically significant correlations between the magnetic helicity and the properties of the background plasma are found. The position of the signature within the spectrum depends on the proton gyroscale and the proton inertial scale. Possible mechanisms responsible for the observed trends are discussed. The helicity peak is interpreted as a result of two competing processes, one of which generates the helicity and the other one eliminates it.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Statistical modelling and Bayesian inversion for a Compton imaging system: application to radioactive source localization

Abstract This paper presents a statistical forward model for a Compton imaging system, called Compton imager. This system, under development at the University of Illinois Urbana Champaign, is a variant of Compton cameras with a single type of sensors which can simultaneously act as scatterers and absorbers. This imager is convenient for imaging situations requiring a wide field of view. The proposed statistical forward model is then used to solve the inverse problem of estimating the location and energy of point-like sources from observed data. This inverse problem is formulated and solved in a Bayesian framework by using a Metropolis within Gibbs algorithm for the estimation of the location, and an expectation-maximization algorithm for the estimation of the energy. This approach leads to more accurate estimation when compared with the deterministic standard back-projection approach, with the additional benefit of uncertainty quantification in the low photon imaging setting.

Tarpau, Cécilia (ORCID:0000000286539490)↗

A simple data-driven level finding method of many-electron atoms and heavy nuclei based on statistical outlier detection

Here, we report a simple and pure data-driven method to find new energy levels of quantum many-body systems only from observed line wavelengths. In our method, all the possible combinations are computed from known energy levels and wavelengths of unidentified lines. As each excited state exhibits many transition lines to different lower levels, the true levels should be reconstructed coincidentally from many level-line combinations, while the wrong combinations distribute randomly. Such a coincidence can be easily detected statistically. We demonstrate this statistical method by finding new levels for various atomic and nuclear systems from unidentified line lists available online.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Turbulence statistical analysis of the L-H transition and RMPs in KSTAR

Here, we investigate the turbulence statistics associated with low-to-high confinement (L-H) transitions and externally applied resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) in KSTAR. Time-series fluctuations of electron density n e , electron temperature T e , and the time derivative of the poloidal magnetic field dB θ /dt (Mirnov coils) are analysed using information-geometric measures (information rate Γ and information length $\mathcal{L}$ = ∫ Γ dt), together with kurtosis κ and variance σ 2 . In low-density upper single-null plasmas (n e ~ 1.2 x 10 19 m -3 ), a ~80 kHz magnetic mode coupling n e , T e , dB θ /dt and emerges prior to the L-H transition and persists into the edge-localised modes H-mode. Edge-localised RMPs (ERMPs) suppress this coherent mode but enhance intermittency, producing frequent bursts that abruptly reshape the time-dependent probability density functions (PDFs) and generate large spikes in Γ (with smaller changes in κ), signalling ERMP-driven departures from quasi-stationarity. The impact of ERMPs on background fluctuation levels depends on density, radial location, and the fluctuating variable itself ($\tilde{n}$, $\tilde{T}$, $\dot{B}$ θ ), whereas $\mathcal{L}$ provides a robust, regime-agnostic measure of cumulative statistical reorganisation and spatial decorrelation. In particular, at low density we observe weaker coupling between $\tilde{n}$ and $\tilde{T}$, along with a tendency toward decreased radial correlation-most clearly for $\tilde{T}$-under ERMPs. Overall, information geometry cleanly captures intermittent events, quantifies non-equilibrium PDF evolution, and offers a compact, cross-diagnostic metric for assessing resonant magnetic perturbation effects on edge transport and correlation across densities, radial locations, and confinement states.

Kim, Eun-jin [Coventry Univ. (United Kingdom); Seo↗

The different varieties of the Suyama-Yamaguchi consistency relation and its violation as a signal of statistical inhomogeneity

We present the different consistency relations that can be seen as variations of the well known Suyama-Yamaguchi (SY) consistency relation τ{sub NL}≥((6/5)f{sub NL}){sup 2}, the latter involving the levels of non-gaussianity f{sub NL} and τ{sub NL} in the primordial curvature perturbation ζ. It has been (implicitly) claimed that the following variation: τ{sub NL}(k{sub 1},k{sub 3})≥((6/5)){sup 2}f{sub NL}(k{sub 1})f{sub NL}(k{sub 3}), which we call ''the fourth variety'', in the collapsed (for τ{sub NL}) and squeezed (for f{sub NL}) limits is always satisfied independently of any physics; however, the proof depends sensitively on the assumption of scale-invariance (expressing this way the fourth variety of the SY consistency relation as τ{sub NL}≥((6/5)f{sub NL}){sup 2}) which only applies for cosmological models involving Lorentz-invariant scalar fields (at least at tree level), leaving room for a strong violation of this variety of the consistency relation when non-trivial degrees of freedom, for instance vector fields, are in charge of the generation of the primordial curvature perturbation. With this in mind as a motivation, we explicitly state, in the first part of this work, under which conditions the SY consistency relation has been claimed to hold in its different varieties (implicitly) presented in the literature since its inception back in 2008; as a result, we show for the first time that the variety τ{sub NL}(k{sub 1},k{sub 1})≥((6/5)f{sub NL}(k{sub 1})){sup 2}, which we call ''the fifth variety'', is always satisfied even when there is strong scale-dependence and high levels of statistical anisotropy as long as statistical homogeneity holds: thus, an observed violation of this specific variety would prevent the comparison between theory and observation, shaking this way the foundations of cosmology as a science. In the second part, we concern about the existence of non-trivial degrees of freedom, concretely vector fields for which the levels of non-gaussianity have been calculated for very few models; among them, and by making use of the δN formalism at tree level, we study a class of models that includes the vector curvaton scenario, vector inflation, and the hybrid inflation with coupled vector and scalar ''waterfall field'' where ζ is generated at the end of inflation, finding that the fourth variety of the SY consistency relation is indeed strongly violated for some specific wavevector configurations while the fifth variety continues to be well satisfied. Finally, as a byproduct of our investigation, we draw attention to a quite recently demonstrated variety of the SY consistency relation: τ{sup iso}{sub NL}≥((6/5)f{sup iso}{sub NL}){sup 2}, in scenarios where scalar and vector fields contribute to the generation of the primordial curvature perturbation; this variety of the SY consistency relation is satisfied although the isotropic pieces of the non-gaussianity parameters receive contributions from the vector fields. We discuss further implications for observational cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The statistically anisotropic curvature perturbation generated by f{sup 2}(φ)F{sub μν}F{sup μν}

The inflaton might be coupled to a gauge field through a term f{sup 2}(φ)F{sub μν}F{sup μν}. If f∝a{sup −2} where a(t) is the scale factor, the perturbation δW of the gauge field generates a potentially observable statistically anisotropic contribution to the primordial curvature perturbation during slow-roll inflation. The spectrum and bispectrum of this contribution have been calculated using the in-in formalism of quantum field theory. We give a simpler and more complete calculation using only the classical perturbations. The results suggest that either the entire curvature perturbation ζ (both the statistically isotropic and anisotropic parts) is generated during slow-roll inflation, or else it is generated afterwards.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

CMB statistical anisotropy from noncommutative gravitational waves

Primordial statistical anisotropy is a key indicator to investigate early Universe models and has been probed by the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies. In this paper, we examine tensor-mode CMB fluctuations generated from anisotropic gravitational waves, parametrised by P{sub h}(k) = P{sub h}{sup (0)}(k) [ 1 + ∑{sub LM} f{sub L}(k) g{sub LM} Y{sub LM} ( k-circumflex )], where P{sub h}{sup (0)}(k) is the usual scale-invariant power spectrum. Such anisotropic tensor fluctuations may arise from an inflationary model with noncommutativity of fields. It is verified that in this model, an isotropic component and a quadrupole asymmetry with f{sub 0}(k) = f{sub 2}(k) ∝ k{sup -2} are created and hence highly red-tilted off-diagonal components arise in the CMB power spectra, namely ℓ{sub 2} = ℓ{sub 1} ± 2 in TT, TE, EE and BB, and ℓ{sub 2} = ℓ{sub 1} ± 1 in TB and EB. We find that B-mode polarisation is more sensitive to such signals than temperature and E-mode polarisation due to the smallness of large-scale cosmic variance and we can potentially measure g{sub 00} = 30 and g{sub 2M} = 58 at 68% CL in a cosmic-variance-limited experiment. Such a level of signal may be measured in a PRISM like experiment, while the instrumental noise contaminates it in the Planck experiment. These results imply that it is impossible to measure the noncommutative parameter if it is small enough for the perturbative treatment to be valid. Our formalism and methodology for dealing with the CMB tensor statistical anisotropy are general and straightforwardly applicable to other early Universe models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

CMB statistical anisotropies of classical and quantum origins

We examine the impact of different anisotropic relics on inflation, in particular the predictions on the density perturbations. These relics can be the source of the large scale anomalies in the cosmic microwave background. There are two different types of background relics, one from the matter sector and the other purely from the metric. Although the angular-dependence of the statistical anisotropy in both cases are degenerate, the scale-dependence are observationally distinctive. In addition, we demonstrate that non-Bunch-Davies vacuum states can extend the statistical anisotropy to much shorter scales, and leave a scale-dependence that is insensitive to the different backgrounds but sensitive to the initial quantum state.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Origin of structure: statistical characterization of the primordial density fluctuations and the collapse of the wave function

The statistical properties of the primordial density perturbations has been considered in the past decade as a powerful probe of the physical processes taking place in the early universe. Within the inflationary paradigm, the properties of the bispectrum are one of the keys that serves to discriminate among competing scenarios concerning the details of the origin of cosmological perturbations. However, all of the scenarios, based on the conventional approach to the so-called ''quantum-to-classical transition'' during inflation, lack the ability to point out the precise physical mechanism responsible for generating the inhomogeneity and anisotropy of our universe starting from and exactly homogeneous and isotropic vacuum state associated with the early inflationary regime. In past works, we have shown that the proposals involving a spontaneous dynamical reduction of the quantum state provide plausible explanations for the birth of said primordial inhomogeneities and anisotropies. In the present manuscript we show that, when considering within the context of such proposals, the characterization of the spectrum and bispectrum turn out to be quite different from those found in the traditional approach, and in particular, some of the statistical features, must be treated in a different way leading to some rather different conclusions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Parity-violating CMB correlators with non-decaying statistical anisotropy

We examine the effect induced on cosmological correlators by the simultaneous breaking of parity and of statistical isotropy. As an example of this, we compute the scalar-scalar, scalar-tensor, tensor-tensor and scalar-scalar-scalar cosmological correlators in presence of the coupling L = f(φ) ( − 1/4 F{sup 2} + γ/4 F ∼F ) between the inflaton φ and a vector field with vacuum expectation value A. For a suitably chosen function f, the energy in the vector field ρ{sub A} does not decay during inflation. This results in nearly scale-invariant signatures of broken statistical isotropy and parity. Specifically, we find that the scalar-scalar correlator of primordial curvature perturbations includes a quadrupolar anisotropy, P{sub ζ}(k) = P(k)[1+g{sub *}( k-circumflex ⋅Â){sup 2}], and a (angle-averaged) scalar bispectrum that is a linear combination of the first 3 Legendre polynomials, B{sub ζ}(k{sub 1}, k{sub 2}, k{sub 3}) = ∑{sub L} c{sub L} P{sub L} ( k-circumflex {sub 1} ⋅ k-circumflex {sub 2}) P(k{sub 1}) P(k{sub 2}) + 2 perms , with c{sub 0}:c{sub 1}:c{sub 2}=2-3:1 (c{sub 1}≠0 is a consequence of parity violation, corresponding to the constant 0γ ≠ ). The latter is one of the main results of this paper, which provides for the first time a clear example of an inflationary model where a non-negligible c{sub 1} contribution to the bispectrum is generated. The scalar-tensor and tensor-tensor correlators induce characteristic signatures in the Cosmic Microwave Background temperature anisotropies (T) and polarization (E/B modes); namely, non-diagonal contributions to (a{sub ℓ1m1}a{sup *}{sub ℓ2m2}), with |ℓ{sub 1} − ℓ{sub 2}| = 1 in TT, TE, EE and BB, and |ℓ{sub 1} − ℓ{sub 2}| = 2 in TB and EB. The latest CMB bounds on the scalar observables (g{sub *}, c{sub 0}, c{sub 1} and c{sub 2}), translate into the upper limit ρ{sub A} / ρ{sub φ} ∼< 10{sup −9} at 0γ=. We find that the upper limit on the vector energy density becomes much more stringent as γ grows.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Effective field theory of statistical anisotropies for primordial bispectrum and gravitational waves

We present the effective field theory studies of primordial statistical anisotropies in models of anisotropic inflation. The general action in unitary gauge is presented to calculate the leading interactions between the gauge field fluctuations, the curvature perturbations and the tensor perturbations. The anisotropies in scalar power spectrum and bispectrum are calculated and the dependence of these anisotropies to EFT couplings are presented. In addition, we calculate the statistical anisotropy in tensor power spectrum and the scalar-tensor cross correlation. Our EFT approach incorporates anisotropies generated in models with non-trivial speed for the gauge field fluctuations and sound speed for scalar perturbations such as in DBI inflation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DESI 2024: reconstructing dark energy using crossing statistics with DESI DR1 BAO data

Here, we implement Crossing Statistics to reconstruct in a model-agnostic manner the expansion history of the universe and properties of dark energy, using DESI Data Release 1 (DR1) BAO data in combination with one of three different supernova compilations (PantheonPlus, Union3, and DES-SN5YR) and Planck CMB observations. Our results hint towards an evolving and emergent dark energy behaviour, with negligible presence of dark energy at z ≳ 1, at varying significance depending on data sets combined. In all these reconstructions, the cosmological constant lies outside the 95% confidence intervals for some redshift ranges. This dark energy behaviour, reconstructed using Crossing Statistics, is in agreement with results from the conventional w 0 –w a dark energy equation of state parametrization reported in the DESI Key cosmology paper. Our results add an extensive class of model-agnostic reconstructions with acceptable fits to the data, including models where cosmic acceleration slows down at low redshifts. We also report constraints on H 0 r d from our model-agnostic analysis, independent of the pre-recombination physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗