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NASA NTRS2010

Error and Uncertainty Quantification in the Numerical Simulation of Complex Fluid Flows

The failure of numerical simulation to predict physical reality is often a direct consequence of the compounding effects of numerical error arising from finite-dimensional approximation and physical model uncertainty resulting from inexact knowledge and/or statistical representation. In this topical lecture, we briefly review systematic theories for quantifying numerical errors and restricted forms of model uncertainty occurring in simulations of fluid flow. A goal of this lecture is to elucidate both positive and negative aspects of applying these theories to practical fluid flow problems. Finite-element and finite-volume calculations of subsonic and hypersonic fluid flow are presented to contrast the differing roles of numerical error and model uncertainty. for these problems.

Barth, Timothy J.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Efficient 3D 'Atomistic' Simulation Technique for Studying of Random Dopant Induced Threshold Voltage Lowering and Fluctuations in Decanano MOSFETs

A 3D 'atomistic' simulation technique to study random dopant induced threshold voltage lowering and fluctuations in sub 0.1 micron MOSFETs is presented. It allows statistical analysis of random impurity effects down to the individual impurity level. Efficient algorithms based on a single solution of Poisson's equation, followed by the solution of a simplified current continuity equation are used in the simulations.

Asenov, Asen↗

NASA NTRS1981

VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) simulation experiment for a severe storm environment

Radiance fields were simulated for prethunderstorm environments in Oklahoma to demonstrate three points: (1) significant moisture gradients can be seen directly in images of the VISSIR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) channels; (2) temperature and moisture profiles can be retrieved from VAS radiances with sufficient accuracy to be useful for mesoscale analysis of a severe storm environment; and (3) the quality of VAS mesoscale soundings improves with conditioning by local weather statistics. The results represent the optimum retrievability of mesoscale information from VAS radiance without the use of ancillary data. The simulations suggest that VAS data will yield the best soundings when a human being classifies the scene, picks relatively clear areas for retrieval, and applies a "local" statistical data base to resolve the ambiguities of satellite observations in favor of the most probable atmospheric structure.

Chesters, D.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Statistically conditioned least squares retrievals planned for the VAS demonstration experiment

Problems in the retrieval of atmospheric profiles from passively observed satellite radiances are reviewed. Plans are described for statistically conditioned least squares retrievals of temperature and moisture profiles around mesoscale events, based upon the expected sensitivity of the VAS channels to the atmospheric variations. Simulated soundings for a global data set and for the 1976 National Storm Laboratory (NSSL) severe storm data set are also examined. This combination of radiance modeling and statistical conditioning should yield reliable mesoscale soundings and provide a test bed for sounding research and development with the VAS instrument.

Chester, D.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Spatial variability of summer Florida precipitation and its impact on microwave radiometer rainfall-measurement systems

Three-dimensional radar data for three summer Florida storms are used as input to a microwave radiative transfer model. The model simulates microwave brightness observations by a 19-GHz, nadir-pointing, satellite-borne microwave radiometer. The statistical distribution of rainfall rates for the storms studied, and therefore the optimal conversion between microwave brightness temperatures and rainfall rates, was found to be highly sensitive to the spatial resolution at which observations were made. The optimum relation between the two quantities was less sensitive to the details of the vertical profile of precipitation. Rainfall retrievals were made for a range of microwave sensor footprint sizes. From these simulations, spatial sampling-error estimates were made for microwave radiometers over a range of field-of-view sizes. The necessity of matching the spatial resolution of ground truth to radiometer footprint size is emphasized. A strategy for the combined use of raingages, ground-based radar, microwave, and visible-infrared (VIS-IR) satellite sensors is discussed.

Turner, B. J.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Turbulent flow simulation - A large eddy simulator's viewpoint

The state of the art of the data base on turbulent structures and numerical turbulence modelling is assessed. The failure of statistical methods to produce accurate results revealed that turbulence is more than simply random noise. Both randomness and coherence may be characteristics of turbulence, which may also feature noise that is a remnant of previous coherence. Five methods are presently used for numerically predicting turbulent flow behavior: correlations, integral methods, the k-epsilon model, and phenomenological and exact solutions to the Navier-Stokes equations. The higher level models include large eddy simulation and full simulation with numerical solutions to the Navier-Stokes equations; the two methods are applicable to experimental, rather than design work.

Ferziger, J. H.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Solar Wind Implantation Into the Lunar Regolith: Monte Carlo Simulations of H Retention in a Surface With Defects and the H2 Exosphere

The solar wind implants protons into the top 20–30 nm of lunar regolith grains, and the implanted hydrogen will diffuse out of the regolith but also interact with oxygen in the regolith oxides. We apply a statistical approach to estimate the diffusion of hydrogen in the regolith hindered by forming temporary bonds with regolith oxygen atoms. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to track the temporal evolution of bound OH surface content and the H2 exosphere. The model results are consistent with the interpretation of the Chandrayaan‐1 M3 observations of infrared absorption spectra by surface hydroxyls as discussed in Li and Milliken (2017, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1701471). The model reproduced the latitudinal concentration of OH by using a Gaussian energy distribution of f(U(sub 0) = 0.5 eV, U(sub W) = 0.078–0.1 eV) to characterize the activation energy barrier to the diffusion of hydrogen in space weathered regolith. In addition, the model results of the exospheric content of H2 are consistent with observations by the Lyman Alpha Mapping Project on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. Therefore, we provide support for hydroxyl formation by chemically trapped solar wind protons.

Tucker, O. J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Solar Wind Implantation Into the Lunar Regolith: Monte Carlo Simulations of H Retention in a Surface With Defects and the H2 Exosphere

The solar wind implants protons into the top 20–30 nm of lunar regolith grains, and the implanted hydrogen will diffuse out of the regolith but also interact with oxygen in the regolith oxides. We apply a statistical approach to estimate the diffusion of hydrogen in the regolith hindered by forming temporary bonds with regolith oxygen atoms. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to track the temporal evolution of bound OH surface content and the H2 exosphere. The model results are consistent with the interpretation of the Chandrayaan-1 M3 observations of infrared absorption spectra by surface hydroxyls as discussed in Li and Milliken (2017). Themodel reproduced the latitudinal concentration of OH by using a Gaussian energy distribution of f(U(o) = 0.5eV, U(w) = 0.078 – 0.1 eV) to characterize the activation energy barrier to the diffusion of hydrogen in space weathered regolith. In addition, the model results of the exospheric content of H2 are consistent with observations by the Lyman Alpha Mapping Project on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. Therefore, we provide support for hydroxyl formation by chemically trapped solar wind protons.

O. J. Tucker↗

NASA NTRS2018

Solar Wind Implantation Into the Lunar Regolith: Monte Carlo Simulations of H Retention in a Surface With Defects and the H2 Exosphere

The solar wind implants protons into the top 20–30 nm of lunar regolith grains, and the implanted hydrogen will diffuse out of the regolith but also interact with oxygen in the regolith oxides. We apply a statistical approach to estimate the diffusion of hydrogen in the regolith hindered by forming temporary bonds with regolith oxygen atoms. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to track the temporal evolution of bound OH surface content and the H2 exosphere. The model results are consistent with the interpretation of the Chandrayaan‐1 M3 observations of infrared absorption spectra by surface hydroxyls as discussed in Li and Milliken (2017, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1701471). The model reproduced the latitudinal concentration of OH by using a Gaussian energy distribution of f(U0 = 0.5 eV, UW = 0.078–0.1 eV) to characterize the activation energy barrier to the diffusion of hydrogen in space weathered regolith. In addition, the model results of the exospheric content of H2 are consistent with observations by the Lyman Alpha Mapping Project on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. Therefore, we provide support for hydroxyl formation by chemically trapped solar wind protons.

O J Tucker↗

NASA NTRS2002

Simulation of the National Aerospace System for Safety Analysis

Work started on this project on January 1, 1999, the first year of the grant. Following the outline of the grant proposal, a simulator architecture has been established which can incorporate the variety of types of models needed to accurately simulate national airspace dynamics. For the sake of efficiency, this architecture was based on an established single-aircraft flight simulator, the Reconfigurable Flight Simulator (RFS), already developed at Georgia Tech. Likewise, in the first year substantive changes and additions were made to the RFS to convert it into a simulation of the National Airspace System, with the flexibility to incorporate many types of models: aircraft models; controller models; airspace configuration generators; discrete event generators; embedded statistical functions; and display and data outputs. The architecture has been developed with the capability to accept any models of these types; due to its object-oriented structure, individual simulator components can be added and removed during run-time, and can be compiled separately. Simulation objects from other projects should be easy to convert to meet architecture requirements, with the intent that both this project may now be able to incorporate established simulation components from other projects, and that other projects may easily use this simulation without significant time investment.

Pritchett, Amy↗

NASA NTRS1967

Computer program uses Monte Carlo techniques for statistical system performance analysis

Computer program with Monte Carlo sampling techniques determines the effect of a component part of a unit upon the overall system performance. It utilizes the full statistics of the disturbances and misalignments of each component to provide unbiased results through simulated random sampling.

Wohl, D. P.↗

NASA NTRS1980

A study of the comparative effects of various means of motion cueing during a simulated compensatory tracking task

NASA's Langley Research Center conducted a simulation experiment to ascertain the comparative effects of motion cues (combinations of platform motion and g-seat normal acceleration cues) on compensatory tracking performance. In the experiment, a full six-degree-of-freedom YF-16 model was used as the simulated pursuit aircraft. The Langley Visual Motion Simulator (with in-house developed wash-out), and a Langley developed g-seat were principal components of the simulation. The results of the experiment were examined utilizing univariate and multivariate techniques. The statistical analyses demonstrate that the platform motion and g-seat cues provide additional information to the pilot that allows substantial reduction of lateral tracking error. Also, the analyses show that the g-seat cue helps reduce vertical error.

Mckissick, B. T.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Comet Halley ephemeris uncertainties in 1985-1986

For the planned flyby missions to Comet Halley in March 1986, the comet's ephemeris uncertainties completely dominate the spacecraft-comet miss distance. In an effort to determine realistic Comet Halley ephemeris uncertainties, a statistical covariance analysis was conducted using the actual data in 1909-1910-1911 and simulated data in 1984-1985-1986. In 1985-1986, Comet Halley's ephemeris uncertainties are very sensitive to the comet's orbital position, the optical data noise, data schedule, and whether or not the old data is included in the orbital solutions. The comet's ephemeris uncertainties in March 1986 are relatively insensitive to reasonable center of light/center of mass offsets and also to possible radar data taken in late November 1985. Accurate Space Telescope observations made in early March 1986 might significantly improve upon the comet's position uncertainties for the various intercepting spacecraft.

Yeomans, D. K.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Speckle in the diffraction patterns of Hendricks-Teller and icosahedral glass models

It is shown that the X-ray diffraction patterns from the Hendricks-Teller model for layered systems and the icosahedral glass models for the icosahedral phases show large fluctuations between nearby scattering wave vectors and from sample to sample, that are quite analogous to laser speckle. The statistics of these fluctuations are studied analytically for the first model and via computer simulations for the second. The observability of these effects is discussed briefly.

Garg, Anupam↗

NASA NTRS1991

Scalar dissipation and mixing in turbulent reacting flows

The mixing term that appears in probability density function-based formulations of the statistical behavior of turbulent reacting flows was studied with the use of direct numerical simulations of an irreversible, second-order, isothermal chemical reaction between initially segregated reactants in decaying, homogeneous turbulence. Three-dimensional, time-dependent pseudospectral calculations with 64-cubed Fourier modes were made as well as were Monte Carlo simulations of the joint concentration pdf equations for coalescence-dispersion (C/D) models. It was found that the development of the scalar microscales depends largely on the initial concentration distributions (both isotropic and nonisotropic distributions were used) and is relatively independent of the reaction rate constant. Joint concentration probability density functions were compared to predictions of D/D models that make use of parameters evaluated from the nonreacting or inert system.

Leonard, Andy D.↗

NASA NTRS1992

A data fusion algorithm for multi-sensor microburst hazard assessment

A recursive model-based data fusion algorithm for multi-sensor microburst hazard assessment is described. An analytical microburst model is used to approximate the actual windfield, and a set of 'best' model parameters are estimated from measured winds. The winds corresponding to the best parameter set can then be used to compute alerting factors such as microburst position, extent, and intensity. The estimation algorithm is based on an iterated extended Kalman filter which uses the microburst model parameters as state variables. Microburst state dynamic and process noise parameters are chosen based on measured microburst statistics. The estimation method is applied to data from a time-varying computational simulation of a historical microburst event to demonstrate its capabilities and limitations. Selection of filter parameters and initial conditions is discussed. Computational requirements and datalink bandwidth considerations are also addressed.

Wanke, Craig R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A data fusion algorithm for multi-sensor microburst hazard assessment

Wanke, Craig R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Detecting bimodality in astronomical datasets

We discuss statistical techniques for detecting and quantifying bimodality in astronomical datasets. We concentrate on the KMM algorithm, which estimates the statistical significance of bimodality in such datasets and objectively partitions data into subpopulations. By simulating bimodal distributions with a range of properties we investigate the sensitivity of KMM to datasets with varying characteristics. Our results facilitate the planning of optimal observing strategies for systems where bimodality is suspected. Mixture-modeling algorithms similar to the KMM algorithm have been used in previous studies to partition the stellar population of the Milky Way into subsystems. We illustrate the broad applicability of KMM by analyzing published data on globular cluster metallicity distributions, velocity distributions of galaxies in clusters, and burst durations of gamma-ray sources. FORTRAN code for the KMM algorithm and directions for its use are available from the authors upon request.

Ashman, Keith A.↗