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At least 775 records · Page 43

Development of Monte Carlo Capability for Orion Parachute Simulations

Parachute test programs employ Monte Carlo simulation techniques to plan testing and make critical decisions related to parachute loads, rate-of-descent, or other parameters. This paper describes the development and use of a MATLAB-based Monte Carlo tool for three parachute drop test simulations currently used by NASA. The Decelerator System Simulation (DSS) is a legacy 6 Degree-of-Freedom (DOF) simulation used to predict parachute loads and descent trajectories. The Decelerator System Simulation Application (DSSA) is a 6-DOF simulation that is well suited for modeling aircraft extraction and descent of pallet-like test vehicles. The Drop Test Vehicle Simulation (DTVSim) is a 2-DOF trajectory simulation that is convenient for quick turn-around analysis tasks. These three tools have significantly different software architectures and do not share common input files or output data structures. Separate Monte Carlo tools were initially developed for each simulation. A recently-developed simulation output structure enables the use of the more sophisticated DSSA Monte Carlo tool with any of the core-simulations. The task of configuring the inputs for the nominal simulation is left to the existing tools. Once the nominal simulation is configured, the Monte Carlo tool perturbs the input set according to dispersion rules created by the analyst. These rules define the statistical distribution and parameters to be applied to each simulation input. Individual dispersed parameters are combined to create a dispersed set of simulation inputs. The Monte Carlo tool repeatedly executes the core-simulation with the dispersed inputs and stores the results for analysis. The analyst may define conditions on one or more output parameters at which to collect data slices. The tool provides a versatile interface for reviewing output of large Monte Carlo data sets while preserving the capability for detailed examination of individual dispersed trajectories. The Monte Carlo tool described in this paper has proven useful in planning several Crew Exploration Vehicle parachute tests.

Moore, James W.↗

Comparative investigations of multi-fidelity modeling on performance of electrostatically-actuated cracked micro-beams

Silicon is a commonly used material for the fabrication of beams for use in micro-electrical-mechanical systems (MEMS). Although silicon is a brittle material, it has been shown to accumulate fatigue damage at the micro-scale. Understanding the effect this has on the overall device performance is critical to the design of reliable devices. Analytical methods for modeling damage provide expedient results but are limited by broad modeling assumptions. Numerical models account for more detailed physical phenomena but can be computationally intensive. In this work, two different crack scenarios are modeled using both analytical techniques and 3D computational simulations. First, the effects of a single surface crack on the static deflection and natural frequency of an electrostatically actuated micro-beam are formulated and compared. Then, a new method for approximating damage associated with realistic distributed crack networks is formulated for use in an analytical model and numerical simulations. A method for utilizing experimentally derived crack statistics to inform the analytical and numerical distributed crack models is developed. Good agreement between the analytical and numerical models is obtained for both crack scenarios. Altogether, these models can be used to effectively simulate a variety of damage and fatigue behaviors in silicon-based MEMS devices.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Shielding Effectiveness in a Two-Dimensional Reverberation Chamber Using Finite-Element Techniques

Reverberation chambers are attaining an increased importance in determination of electromagnetic susceptibility of avionics equipment. Given the nature of the variable boundary condition, the ability of a given source to couple energy into certain modes and the passband characteristic due the chamber Q, the fields are typically characterized by statistical means. The emphasis of this work is to apply finite-element techniques at cutoff to the analysis of a two-dimensional structure to examine the notion of shielding-effectiveness issues in a reverberating environment. Simulated mechanical stirring will be used to obtain the appropriate statistical field distribution. The shielding effectiveness (SE) in a simulated reverberating environment is compared to measurements in a reverberation chamber. A log-normal distribution for the SE is observed with implications for system designers. The work is intended to provide further refinement in the consideration of SE in a complex electromagnetic environment.

Bunting, Charles F.↗

Effects of wall curvature on turbulence statistics

A three-dimensional, time-dependent, direct numerical simulation of low-Reynolds number turbulent flow in a mildly curved channel was performed, and the results examined to determine the mechanism by which curvature affects wall-bounded turbulent shear flows. A spectral numerical method with about one-million modes was employed, and no explicit subgrid scale model was used. The effects of curvature on this flow were determined by comparing the concave and convex sides of the channel. The observed effects are consistent with experimental observations for mild curvature. The most significant difference in the turbulence statistics between the concave and convex sides is in the Reynolds shear stress. This is accompanied by significant differences in the terms of the Reynolds shear stress balance equations. In addition, it was found that stationary Taylor-Goertler vortices were present and that they had a significant effect on the flow by contributing to the mean Reynolds shear stress, and by enhancing the difference between the wall shear stresses.

Moser, R. D.↗

The Development of Design Tools for Fault Tolerant Quantum Dot Cellular Automata Based Logic

We are developing software to explore the fault tolerance of quantum dot cellular automata gate architectures in the presence of manufacturing variations and device defects. The Topology Optimization Methodology using Applied Statistics (TOMAS) framework extends the capabilities of the A Quantum Interconnected Network Array Simulator (AQUINAS) by adding front-end and back-end software and creating an environment that integrates all of these components. The front-end tools establish all simulation parameters, configure the simulation system, automate the Monte Carlo generation of simulation files, and execute the simulation of these files. The back-end tools perform automated data parsing, statistical analysis and report generation.

Armstrong, Curtis D.↗

Multiple Environmental Influences on the Lightning of Cold-Based Continental Cumulonimbus Clouds. Part I: Description and Validation of Model

In this two-part paper, influences from environmental factors on lightning in a convective storm are assessed with a model. In Part I, an electrical component is described and applied in the Aerosol–Cloud model (AC). AC treats many types of secondary (e.g., breakup in ice–ice collisions, raindrop-freezing fragmentation, rime splintering) and primary (heterogeneous, homogeneous freezing) ice initiation. AC represents lightning flashes with a statistical treatment of branching from a fractal law constrained by video imagery. The storm simulated is from the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS; 19/20 June 2000). The simulation was validated microphysically [e.g., ice/droplet concentrations and mean sizes, liquid water content (LWC), reflectivity, surface precipitation] and dynamically (e.g., ascent) in our 2017 paper. Predicted ice concentrations (~10 L -1 ) agreed—to within a factor of about 2—with aircraft data at flight levels (-10° to -15°C). Here, electrical statistics of the same simulation are compared with observations. Flash rates (to within a factor of 2), triggering altitudes and polarity of flashes, and electric fields, all agree with the coincident STEPS observations. The “normal” tripole of charge structure observed during an electrical balloon sounding is reproduced by AC. It is related to reversal of polarity of noninductive charging in ice–ice collisions seen in laboratory experiments when temperature or LWC are varied. Positively charged graupel and negatively charged snow at most midlevels, charged away from the fastest updrafts, is predicted to cause the normal tripole. Total charge separated in the simulated storm is dominated by collisions involving secondary ice from fragmentation in graupel–snow collisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Streaming Statistics

In the context of a larger effort for in situ data analytics, there is a need to calculate basic statistics metrics (e.g., count, mean, median) online as new data points become available. Originally, the code for such online, or in other words streaming, statistics was part of the TALASS (Topological Analysis of Large- Scale Simulations) library. We isolated the relevant code and created a standalone library from it called Streaming Statistics. We also added an ability to serialize and deserialize the statistics objects so that the library can be used in distributed, task-based processing. To use the Streaming Statistics library, the user chooses a statistic, constructs an object for it, and then "adds" values to it, which means the statistic is augmented.

Shudler, Sergei↗

Simulation of deep one- and two-dimensional redshift surveys

It is shown that slice or pencil-beam redshift surveys of galaxies can be simulated in a box with nonequal sides. This method saves a lot of computer time and memory while providing essentially the same results as from whole-cube simulations. A 2457.6/h Mpc-long rod (out to a redshift z = 0.58 in two opposite directions) is simulated using the standard biased cold dark matter model as an example to mimic the recent deep pencil-beam surveys by Broadhurst et al. (1990). The structures (spikes) seen in these simulated samples occur when the narrow pencil-beam pierces walls, filaments, and clusters appearing randomly along the line-of-sight. A statistical test for goodness of fit to a periodic lattice has been applied to the observations and the simulations. It is found that the statistical significance level (P = 15.4 percent) is not strong enough to reject the null hypothesis that the observations and the simulations were drawn at random from the same set.

Park, Changbom↗

Statistical imprints of wave-like dark matter on multiply-imaged galaxies in strong cluster lenses from JWST

Wave-like dark matter ($ψ$DM) is an elusive dark matter (DM) candidate. The model, often also called fuzzy or ultralight DM, proposes that DM is an extremely light ($m\sim10^{-22}$ eV) boson and thereby has a kpc-scale de Broglie wavelength. Hence, interference of DM gives rise to sub-galactic density fluctuations that can be studied with strong gravitational lensing. In this paper, we use the residual power spectrum, $\mathrm{P}_δ(k)$, as a probe of $ψ$DM, which quantifies deviations from smooth lensing predictions, measured from multiply-imaged galaxies in strong cluster lenses. The key idea is that imprinted in these deviations are lensing distortions from DM substructure, which can be harnessed statistically to distinguish among DM theories. We simulate JWST-quality mock observations of strong gravitational lensing in galaxy clusters, modeling line-of-sight DM substructure within $ψ$DM and the standard cold dark matter (CDM) paradigms. Using mock deep observations ($\sim$ 20 hours), we find that $\mathrm{P}_δ(k)$ is sensitive to both $ψ$DM particle mass and fluctuation amplitude, and can distinguish $ψ$DM fluctuations from CDM subhalos. We demonstrate that $\mathrm{P}_δ(k)$ can be measured directly from data by modeling the smooth lensing with a local Curved Arc Basis formalism. With realistic modeling systematics, we find a statistically significant separation between $ψ$DM and CDM across $1 \lesssim k \lesssim 11\,\mathrm{kpc}^{-1}$ -- offering an independent probe of the wave-like nature of DM complementary to existing constraints.

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics (astro-ph.C↗

Ten Years of Cloud Properties from MODIS: Global Statistics and Use in Climate Model Evaluation

The NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), launched onboard the Terra and Aqua spacecrafts, began Earth observations on February 24, 2000 and June 24,2002, respectively. Among the algorithms developed and applied to this sensor, a suite of cloud products includes cloud masking/detection, cloud-top properties (temperature, pressure), and optical properties (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path, and thermodynamic phase). All cloud algorithms underwent numerous changes and enhancements between for the latest Collection 5 production version; this process continues with the current Collection 6 development. We will show example MODIS Collection 5 cloud climatologies derived from global spatial . and temporal aggregations provided in the archived gridded Level-3 MODIS atmosphere team product (product names MOD08 and MYD08 for MODIS Terra and Aqua, respectively). Data sets in this Level-3 product include scalar statistics as well as 1- and 2-D histograms of many cloud properties, allowing for higher order information and correlation studies. In addition to these statistics, we will show trends and statistical significance in annual and seasonal means for a variety of the MODIS cloud properties, as well as the time required for detection given assumed trends. To assist in climate model evaluation, we have developed a MODIS cloud simulator with an accompanying netCDF file containing subsetted monthly Level-3 statistical data sets that correspond to the simulator output. Correlations of cloud properties with ENSO offer the potential to evaluate model cloud sensitivity; initial results will be discussed.

Platnick, Steven E.↗

Hydrodynamic fluctuations near a Hopf bifurcation: Stochastic onset of vortex shedding behind a circular cylinder

Here, we investigate hydrodynamic fluctuations in the flow past a circular cylinder near the critical Reynolds number Re c for the onset of vortex shedding. Starting from the fluctuating Navier-Stokes equations, we perform a perturbation expansion around Re c to derive analytical expressions for the statistics of the fluctuating lift force. Molecular-level simulations using the direct simulation Monte Carlo method support the theoretical predictions of the lift power spectrum and amplitude distribution. Notably, we have been able to collect sufficient statistics at distances Re ⁡/ Re c – 1 = O ⁡(10 –3 ) from the instability that confirm the appearance of non-Gaussian fluctuations, and we observe that they are associated with intermittent vortex shedding. These results emphasize how unavoidable thermal-noise-induced fluctuations become dramatically amplified in the vicinity of oscillatory flow instabilities and that their onset is fundamentally stochastic.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Differentiable Predictions for Large Scale Structure with SHAMNet

In simulation-based models of the galaxy-halo connection, theoretical predictions for galaxy clustering and lensing are typically made based on Monte Carlo realizations of a mock universe. In this paper, we use Subhalo Abundance Matching (SHAM) as a toy model to introduce an alternative to stochastic predictions based on mock population, demonstrating how to make simulation-based predictions for clustering and lensing that are both exact and differentiable with respect to the parameters of the model. Conventional implementations of SHAM are based on iterative algorithms such as Richardson-Lucy deconvolution; here we use the JAX library for automatic differentiation to train SHAMNet, a neural network that accurately approximates the stellar-to-halo mass relation (SMHM) defined by abundance matching. In our approach to making differentiable predictions of large-scale structure, we map parameterized PDFs onto each simulated halo, and calculate gradients of summary statistics of the galaxy distribution by using autodiff to propagate the gradients of the SMHM through the statistical estimators used to measure one- and two-point functions. Our techniques are quite general, and we conclude with an overview of how they can be applied in tandem with more complex, higher-dimensional models, creating the capability to make differentiable predictions for the multi-wavelength universe of galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Long-term Dynamical Stability in the Outer Solar System. I. The Regular and Chaotic Evolution of the 34 Largest Trans-Neptunian Objects

We carried out an extensive analysis of the stability of the outer solar system, making use of the frequency analysis technique over short-term integrations of nearly 100,000 test particles, as well as a statistical analysis of 200 1 Gyr long numerical simulations, which consider the mutual perturbations of the giant planets and the 34 largest trans-Neptunian objects (we have called all 34 objects “dwarf planets,” DPs, even if probably only the largest of them are true DPs). From the frequency analysis, we produced statistical diffusion maps for a wide region of the a–e phase-space plane; we also present the average diffusion time for orbits as a function of perihelion. We later turned our attention to the 34 DPs, making an individualized analysis for each of them and producing a first approximation of their future stability. From the 200 distinct realizations of the orbital evolution of the 34 DPs, we classified the sample into three categories, including 17 stable, 11 unstable, and 6 resonant objects; we also found that, statistically, two objects from the sample will leave the trans-Neptunian region within the next gigayear, most likely being ejected from the solar system, but with a nonnegligible probability of going inside the orbit of Neptune, either to collide with a giant planet or even falling to the inner solar system, where our simulations are no longer able to resolve their continuous evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An Examination of Parameters Affecting Large Eddy Simulations of Flow Past a Square Cylinder

Separated flow over a bluff body is analyzed via large eddy simulations. The turbulent flow around a square cylinder features a variety of complex flow phenomena such as highly unsteady vortical structures, reverse flow in the near wall region, and wake turbulence. The formation of spanwise vortices is often times artificially suppressed in computations by either insufficient depth or a coarse spanwise resolution. As the resolution is refined and the domain extended, the artificial turbulent energy exchange between spanwise and streamwise turbulence is eliminated within the wake region. A parametric study is performed highlighting the effects of spanwise vortices where the spanwise computational domain's resolution and depth are varied. For Re=22,000, the mean and turbulent statistics computed from the numerical large eddy simulations (NLES) are in good agreement with experimental data. Von-Karman shedding is observed in the wake of the cylinder. Mesh independence is illustrated by comparing a mesh resolution of 2 million to 16 million. Sensitivities to time stepping were minimized and sampling frequency sensitivities were nonpresent. While increasing the spanwise depth and resolution can be costly, this practice was found to be necessary to eliminating the artificial turbulent energy exchange.

Mankbadi, M. R.↗

Supernova-driven Turbulent Metal Mixing in High-redshift Galactic Disks: Metallicity Fluctuations in the Interstellar Medium and its Imprints on Metal-poor Stars in the Milky Way

The extent to which turbulence mixes gas in the face of recurrent infusions of fresh metals by supernovae (SN) could help provide important constraints on the local star formation conditions. This includes predictions of the metallicity dispersion among metal-poor stars, which suggests that the interstellar medium was not very well mixed at these early times. The purpose of this Letter is to help isolate, via a series of numerical experiments, some of the key processes that regulate turbulent mixing of SN elements in galactic disks. We study the gas interactions in small simulated patches of a galaxy disk with the goal of resolving the small-scale mixing effects of metals at parsec scales, which enables us to measure the turbulent diffusion coefficient in various galaxy environments. By investigating the statistics of variations of α elements in these simulations, we are able to derive constraints not only on the allowed range of intrinsic yield variations in SN explosions but also on the star formation history of the Milky Way. We argue that the observed dispersion of [Mg/Fe] in metal-poor halo stars is compatible with the star-forming conditions expected in dwarf satellites or in an early low-star-forming Milky Way progenitor. In particular, metal variations in stars that have not been phase-mixed can be used to infer the star-forming conditions of disrupted dwarf satellites.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Shock state distributions in porous tantalum and characterization with multipoint velocimetry

Heterogenous materials under shock compression can be expected to reach different shock states throughout the material according to local differences in microstructure and the history of wave propagation. Here, in this work, a compact, multiple-beam focusing optic assembly is used with high-speed velocimetry to interrogate the shock response of porous tantalum films prepared through thermal-spray deposition. The distribution of particle velocities across a shocked interface is compared to results obtained using a set of defocused interferometric beams that sampled the shock response over larger areas. The two methods produced velocity distributions along the shock plateau with the same mean, while a larger variance was measured with narrower beams. The finding was replicated using three-dimensional, mesoscopically resolved hydrodynamics simulations of solid tantalum with a pore structure mimicking statistical attributes of the material and accounting for radial divergence of the beams, with agreement across several impact velocities. Accounting for pore morphology in the simulations was found to be necessary for replicating the rise time of the shock plateau. The validated simulations were then used to show that while the average velocity along the shock plateau could be determined accurately with only a few interferometric beams, accurately determining the width of the velocity distribution, which here was approximately Gaussian, required a beam dimension much smaller than the spatial correlation lengthscale of the velocity field, here by a factor of ∼30×, with implications for the study of other porous materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Simulation Of Failures And Repairs

Automated Reliability/Availability/Maintainability (ARAM) computer program one of software tools designed to assess candidate architectures of data-management system of the Space Station. Evaluates reliability, availability, and maintainability characteristcs of conceptual system. Uses data representing redundancy and maintainability characteristics of system, and reliability parameters of components of equipment. Design based upon simulation of failures and possible subsequent repairs of each unit of equipment included in system. Analyzes effects of failures and repairs on system and maintains statistics of behavior of system from which results of simulation obtained. Written for IBM PC XT/AT or compatible computer.

Vallone, Antonio↗

Integrated GW Farm ABM

This Data Repository includes data used for the integrated groundwater- farm ABM model, raw model output from scenario ensemble, and processed outputs that isolate the groundwater storage depletion outcomes for the 35,000 farm cells. Model Inputs: Farm ABM Inputs: This folder contains the input data used by the integrated groundwater - farm ABM modelling script (Python file) used for the high performance computing (HPC) experiments. The sub-folder "data inputs" contains all of the farm attribute data, while the three files in the folder have the hydrogeological data lookup table (NLDAS Cost Curve Attributes.csv), a lookup table (Theis well function table.csv) for the groundwater cost curve function, and the farm indexes and corresponding NLDAS ids for all of the cells run in this experiment (nldas farms subset final.csv). NLDAS Cost curve hydrogeological data: Hydrogeological data aggregated to 1/8 degree resolution and aligned with the NLDAS grid. Parameters include: water depth below ground surface [meters], subsurface porosity [unitless], aquifer depth from ground surface to aquifer bottom [meters], annual average recharge (USGS: mm, Doll: meters), and three different hydraulic conductivity (K) values (meters/day). The three K values represent the mean value from Gleeson et al. (2018), one standard deviation above the mean from Gleeson et al. (2018), and the de Graaf et al. 2020 modifications to certain lithologies. Additional information about these datasets and their processing are documented in the supplement to Yoon et al. 2025 (in review). Output: Raw outputs: This folder contains a .zip file that has model outputs for the entire scenario ensemble. There is one csv for each farm id, using the format "farm farmid cases.csv". The relationship between the farm id and NLDAS id is defined by the "nldas farms subset final.csv" located in the Farm ABM Inputs folder. Each csv has 625 rows, corresponding to 625 combinations of different scenario parameter values. Each row (scenario) represents the outcome of a 100 year simulation. Columns define scenario settings and summary statistics for each scenario. The first four columns define the scenario settings: "hydro ratio," "econ ratio," "K scenario," and "gamma scenario." The hydro and econ ratios are values passed to the modeling script that influence multipliers for other model parameters, as documented in the supplement to Yoon et al. 2025 (in review). The gamma multiplier is a coefficient multiplier applied to the baseline gamma values (values below 1 represent lower unobserved costs compared to baseline, values above 1 represent higher costs). The K scenario names represent K values of: "low": 0.5 m/d, "int 1": 2.5 m/d, "int 2": 10 m/d, "high": 50 m/d, and "gleeson": mean Gleeson K value. "Perc vol depleted" is the fraction of groundwater depleted at the end of the 100 simulation. Processed Output: Derived depletion outcomes from raw outputs: All of the individual csv files from the Raw outputs were aggregated into a single file that has the scenario settings and fraction depletion "Perc vol depleted" for every farm cell, for every scenario. The other two files define relationships between the farm id, NLDAS id, and local and major aquifer units, used for aquifer-level depletion analysis.

Agent based modeling↗