Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Statistical error”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 775 records · Page 43

Improved limits on Fierz interference using asymmetry measurements from the Ultracold Neutron Asymmetry (UCNA) experiment

The Ultracold Neutron Asymmetry (UCNA) experiment was designed to measure the β-decay asymmetry parameter, A 0 , for free neutron decay. In the experiment, polarized ultracold neutrons are transported into a decay trap, and their β-decay electrons are detected with ≈4π acceptance into two detector packages which provide position and energy reconstruction. The experiment also has sensitivity to b n , the Fierz interference term in the neutron β-decay rate. In this work, we determine bn from the energy dependence of A 0 using the data taken during the UCNA 2011–2013 run. In addition, we present the same type of analysis using the earlier 2010 A dataset. Furthermore, motivated by improved statistics and comparable systematic errors compared to the 2010 data-taking run, we present a new b n measurement using the weighted average of our asymmetry dataset fits, to obtain b n = 0.066 ± 0.041 stat ± 0.024 syst which corresponds to a limit of -0.012 < b n < 0.144 at the 90% confidence level.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Generalized master equation for particle transport in binary random media with renewal statistics

Particle transport in binary stochastic mixtures is classically modeled assuming Markovian or exponential mixing statistics but in many applications material memory invalidates the Markov assumption. For non-Markovian mixing characterized by alternating renewal processes, a transport-theoretic framework is presented that provides an exact description of transport in nonscattering random binary media with general non-exponential statistics. Our approach is to Markovianize the problem by augmenting the {material type, particle flux} state space with the age or distance from the last interface. A Chapman-Kolmogorov equation is formulated for the joint probability density of the material type, particle flux, and age, and subsequently reduced to a generalized Master equation (GME) in differential form. This constitutes the primary result of this work. A state-updating Monte Carlo algorithm consistent with the GME is developed and benchmarked against analytical solutions for multiple chord-length laws. For purely absorbing renewal statistical media, the GME reproduces analytical benchmarks for the equilibrium age distribution, interior mean/variance of material-conditioned fluxes, and boundary transmittance. Simulations further demonstrate that a Markov (exponential) approximation of non-exponential statistics can introduce large errors in transmittance and interior flux profiles. Lastly, the reintroduction of memory due to scattering is briefly addressed through heuristic considerations.

Fluctuations & noise↗

Parton physics from a heavy-quark operator product expansion: Lattice QCD calculation of the fourth moment of the pion distribution amplitude

The pion light-cone distribution amplitude (LCDA) is an essential nonperturbative input for a range of high-energy exclusive processes in quantum chromodynamics. Building on our previous work, the continuum limit of the fourth Mellin moment of the pion LCDA is determined in quenched QCD using quark masses which correspond to a pion mass of 𝑚 𝜋 = 550 MeV. This calculation finds ⟨𝜉 2 ⟩ = 0.202⁢(8)⁢(9) and ⟨𝜉 4 ⟩ = 0.039⁢(28)⁢(11) where the first error indicates the combined statistical and systematic uncertainty from the analysis and the second indicates the uncertainty from working with Wilson coefficients computed to next-to-leading order. These results are presented in the $\overline{\textrm{MS}}$ scheme at a renormalization scale of 𝜇 = 2 GeV.

Detmold, William [Massachusetts Inst. of Technolog↗

Chemometrics and Experimental Design for the Quantification of Nitrate Salts in Nitric Acid: Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Absorption Analysis

Implementing remote, real-time spectroscopic monitoring of radiochemical processing streams in hot cell environments requires efficiency and simplicity. The success of optical spectroscopy for the quantification of species in chemical systems highly depends on representative training sets and suitable validation sets. Selecting a training set (i.e., calibration standards) to build multivariate regression models is both time- and resource-consuming using standard one-factor-at-a-time approaches. This study describes the use of experimental design to generate spectral training sets and a validation set for the quantification of sodium nitrate (0–1 M) and nitric acid (0.1–10 M) using the near-infrared water band centered at 1440 nm. Partial least squares regression models were built from training sets generated by both D- and I-optimal experimental designs and a one-factor-at-a-time approach. The prediction performance of each model was evaluated by comparing the bias and standard error of prediction for statistical significance. D- and I-optimal designs reduced the number of samples required to build regression models compared with one-factor-at-a-time while also improving performance. Models must be confirmed against a validation sample set when minimizing the number of samples in the training set. The D-optimal design performed the best when considering both performance and efficiency by improving predictive capability and reducing number of samples in the training set by 64% compared with the one-factor-at-a-time approach. The experimental design approach objectively selects calibration and validation spectral data sets based on statistical criterion to optimize performance and minimize resources.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Ancilla-free continuous-variable SWAP test

We propose a continuous-variable (CV) SWAP test that requires no ancilla register, thereby generalizing the ancilla-free SWAP test for qubits. In this ancilla-free CV SWAP test, the computational basis measurement is replaced by photon number-resolving measurement, and we calculate an upper bound on the error of the overlap estimate obtained from a finite Fock cutoff in the detector. As an example, we show that estimation of the overlap of pure, centered, single-mode Gaussian states of energy E and squeezed in opposite quadratures can be obtained to error ϵ using photon statistics below a Fock basis cutoff O(Elnϵ –1 ). This cutoff is greatly reduced to E + O(√ Elnϵ –1 ) when the states have rapidly decaying Fock tails, such as coherent states. We show how the ancilla-free CV SWAP test can be extended to many modes and applied to quantum algorithms such as variational compiling and entanglement spectroscopy in the CV setting. For the latter we also provide a new algorithm which does not have an analog in qubit systems. The ancilla-free CV SWAP test is implemented on Xanadu's 8-mode photonic processor in order to estimate the vacuum probability of a two-mode squeezed state.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The IEC 61850 Sampled Measured Values Protocol: Analysis, Threat Identification, and Feasibility of Using NN Forecasters to Detect Spoofed Packets

The operation of the smart grid is anticipated to rely profoundly on distributed microprocessor-based control. Therefore, interoperability standards are needed to address the heterogeneous nature of the smart grid data. Since the IEC 61850 emerged as a wide-spread interoperability standard widely accepted by the industry, the Sampled Measured Values method has been used to communicate digitized voltage and current measurements. Realizing that current and voltage measurements (i.e., feedback measurements) are necessary for reliable and secure noperation of the power grid, firstly, this manuscript provides a detailed analysis of the Sampled Measured Values protocol emphasizing its advantages, then, it identifies vulnerabilities in this protocol and explains the cyber threats associated to these vulnerabilities. Secondly, current efforts to mitigate these vulnerabilities are outlined and the feasibility of using neural network forecasters to detect spoofed sampled values is investigated. It was shown that although such forecasters have high spoofed data detection accuracy, they are prone to the accumulation of forecasting error. Accordingly, this paper also proposes an algorithm to detect the accumulation of the forecasting error based on lightweight statistical indicators. The effectiveness of the proposed methods is experimentally verified in a laboratory-scale smart grid testbed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

FAR-ULTRAVIOLET OBSERVATIONS OF COMET C/2012 S1 (ISON) FROM FORTIS

We have used the unique far-UV imaging capability offered by a sounding-rocket-borne instrument to acquire observations of C/2012 S1 (ISON) when its angular separation with respect to the Sun was 26.°3 on 2013 November 20.49. At the time of observation, the comet’s heliocentric distance and velocity relative to the Sun were r {sub h} = 0.43 au and r-dot {sub h} = −62.7 km s{sup −1}. Images dominated by C i λ1657 and H i λ1216 were acquired over a 10{sup 6} × 10{sup 6} km{sup 2} region. The water production rate implied by the Lyα observations is constrained to be Q{sub H{sub 2O}}≈ 8 × 10{sup 29} s{sup −1} while the neutral carbon production rate was Q{sub C} ≈ 4 ×10{sup 28} s{sup −1}. The radial profile of C i was consistent with it being a dissociation product of a parent molecule with a lifetime τ ∼ 5 × 10{sup 4} s, favoring a parent other than CO. We constrain the Q {sub CO} production rate to 5{sub −7.5}{sup +1.5} × 10{sup 28} s{sup −1} with 1σ errors derived from photon statistics. The upper limit on the Q {sub CO}/Q{sub H{sub 2O}} is ≲6%.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Variable-length codes and the Fano metric.

It is shown that the metric proposed originally by Fano for sequential decoding is precisely the required statistic for minimum-error-probability decoding of variable-length codes. The analysis shows further that the 'natural' choice of bias in the metric is the code rate and gives insight into why the Fano metric has proved to be the best practical choice in sequential decoding. The recently devised Jelinek-Zigangirov 'stack algorithm' is shown to be a natural consequence of this interpretation of the Fano metric. Finally, it is shown that the elimination of the bias in the 'truncated' portion of the code tree gives a slight reduction in average computation at the sacrifice of increased error probability.

Massey, J. L.↗

Possible variation of the gravitational constant over the elements.

We re-examine the theory and data of the Kreuzer experiment to measure the relative difference in the gravitational constant between two elements. Significant errors appear in the statistical analysis of Kreuzer which vitiate his conclusions. The upper bound for the relative difference of F and Br from his experimental data correctly becomes .02, about 10 times the limit already set on the general variation of the gravitational constant over the elements by direct use of a Cavendish balance.

Gilvarry, J. J.↗

Identification of interplanetary tangential and rotational discontinuities.

Discontinuities in the interplanetary magnetic field detected by the Mariner 5 magnetometer have been analyzed to distinguish tangential and rotational discontinuities. The method used was based on finding the field component normal to the plane of the discontinuities that vanishes for tangential discontinuities and is nonzero for rotational discontinuities. Slightly less than one half of the 118 discontinuities analyzed could not be classified because neither the normal component nor the changes in field magnitude were statistically significant owing to errors in the field measurements and in finding the normal direction. The 44 rotational discontinuities that were finally identified did not exhibit changes in field magnitude in excess of 20%.-

Smith, E. J.↗

Evaluation of optimal control type models for the human gunner in an Anti-Aircraft Artillery (AAA) system

The selection of the structure of optimal control type models for the human gunner in an anti aircraft artillery system is considered. Several structures within the LQG framework may be formulated. Two basic types are considered: (1) kth derivative controllers; and (2) proportional integral derivative (P-I-D) controllers. It is shown that a suitable criterion for model structure determination can be based on the ensemble statistics of the tracking error. In the case when the ensemble tracking steady state error is zero, it is suggested that a P-I-D controller formulation be used in preference to the kth derivative controller.

Phatak, A. V.↗

Angular sensitivities of scintillator slab configurations for location of gamma ray bursts

Thin flat scintillator slabs are a useful means of measuring the angular location of gamma ray fluxes of astronomical interest. A statistical estimate of position error was made of two scintillator systems suitable for gamma ray burst location from a balloon or satellite platform. A single rotating scintillator with associated flux monitor is compared with a pair of stationary orthogonal scintillators. Position error for a strong burst is of the order of a few arcmin if systematic errors are ignored.

Gregory, J. C.↗

LACIE performance predictor final operational capability program description, volume 3

The requirements and processing logic for the LACIE Error Model program (LEM) are described. This program is an integral part of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) system. LEM is that portion of the LPP (LACIE Performance Predictor) which simulates the sample segment classification, strata yield estimation, and production aggregation. LEM controls repetitive Monte Carlo trials based on input error distributions to obtain statistical estimates of the wheat area, yield, and production at different levels of aggregation. LEM interfaces with the rest of the LPP through a set of data files.

Source record↗

Ice tracking techniques, implementation, performance, and applications

Present techniques of ice tracking make use both of cross-correlation and of edge tracking, the former being more successful in heavy pack ice, the latter being critical for the broken ice of the pack margins. Algorithms must assume some constraints on the spatial variations of displacements to eliminate fliers, but must avoid introducing any errors into the spatial statistics of the measured displacement field. We draw our illustrations from the implementation of an automated tracking system for kinematic analyses of ERS-1 and JERS-1 SAR imagery at the University of Alaska - the Alaska SAR Facility's Geophysical Processor System. Analyses of the ice kinematic data that might have some general interest to analysts of cloud-derived wind fields are the spatial structure of the fields, and the evaluation and variability of average deformation and its invariants: divergence, vorticity and shear. Many problems in sea ice dynamics and mechanics can be addressed with the kinematic data from SAR.

Rothrock, D. A.↗

An Analysis of the Tracking Performances of Two Straight-wing and Two Swept-wing Fighter Airplanes with Fixed Sights in a Standardized Test Maneuver

Standard air-to-air-gunnery tracking runs were conducted with F-51H, F8F-1, F-86A, and F-86E airplanes equipped with fixed gunsights. The tracking performances were documented over the normal operating range of altitude, Mach number, and normal acceleration factor for each airplane. The sources of error were studied by statistical analyses of the aim wander.

CONTROL, LATERAL↗