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At least 775 records · Page 43

Regulators’ Financial Toolbox: Keeping Track of Clean Energy Summary

On February 26, 2024, NARUC’s Committee on Energy Resources and the Environment hosted a panel discussion titled “Keeping Track of Clean Energy Part III: Economy Wide Consistency” at the 2024 NARUC Winter Policy Summit. The panel was moderated by Hon. Abigail Anthony, Rhode Island Public Utilities Commission, and featured remarks by Wenbo Shi, PhD-Founder/CEO, Singularity Energy; Todd Jones, Principal, US Markets, Center for Resource Solutions (CRS); and Tory Clark, Partner, Energy + Environmental Economics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

New Methods for Predicting Non-Born-Oppenheimer Chemistry

Current methods for modeling non-adiabatic molecular dynamics face fundamental limitations when treating geometric phase effects: quantum mechanical phenomena where nuclear wavepackets acquire phase shifts when encircling conical intersections. Existing approaches either neglect these effects entirely or rely on potential energy surfaces arising from the Born-Oppenheimer approximation, which introduce artificial singularities and can overestimate geometric phase contributions. This project developed a new theoretical framework based on exact factorization (XF) methods to overcome these limitations. We derived mathematical formulations for hybrid quantum-classical XF dynamics that selectively treat critical nuclear degrees of freedom quantum mechanically while propagating others classically. This approach addresses the computational intractability that has previously limited exact methods to toy systems. Key innovations include a new approach to systematically identifying nuclear coordinates requiring quantum treatment, as well as novel implementation strategies that interface with existing quantum chemistry codes. The project also developed a proof-of-concept code for treating Jahn-Teller systems and creation of educational materials on non-adiabatic dynamics geared at the graduate level. The theoretical framework developed will enable future systematically improvable calculations of nuclear quantum effects in realistic molecular systems, filling a critical gap in non-adiabatic dynamics methods. This foundation supports future development of predictive tools for designing energy-relevant photochemical processes where quantum coherence effects may be exploited to control reaction outcomes.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Sovereign Credit Rating Processes Adapted to Critical Infrastructure Cyber Risk Assessment

United States critical infrastructure entities are increasingly targeted by motivated and capable threat actors and must be prepared to assess and treat a diverse range of cyber risks. Consequently, this necessitates some form of analytical process to evaluate risks and inform cyber security investment decisions. A potential solution for structuring cyber risk evaluation exists within the field of sovereign credit ratings – where agencies employ mature approaches that integrate quantitative and qualitative data to produce a singular value of assessment. Adapting such approaches, we present a novel criterion and methodology for measuring and communicating the likelihood element of cyber risk. The methodology is composed of three sequential phases: a quantitative baseline organized by distinct capability frames, a bounded qualitative adjustment per frame, and a greater-bounded qualitative adjustment spanning the entire process. The process culminates in publication of a cyber capability rating that communicates a critical infrastructure entity’s ability and willingness to mitigate discontinuous function due to cyberattack.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

A case study in contrastive learning information combination: Application to technical forensics of additive manufacturing filament source identification

Combination of information from disparate data sources into a single decision is a core challenge in many fields, including the field of technical forensics. Technical forensics (TF) utilizes technical characterization of questioned samples to determine properties of that sample; these properties are then used to infer information of forensic interest, such as provenance, age, or attribution. TF is utilized in traditional forensic applications, such as the attribution of material fragments from an explosive, and in nuclear forensic applications, such as the attribution of actinides which have been interdicted out of regulatory control. The challenge of combining information from disparate sources, described alternately by many terms including “Data Fusion” and “Data Integration”, is exacerbated in the technical forensics domain due to at least two factors: the challenge of interpreting each information source singularly, and the relatively small data set sizes available. Extensive literature exists attempting to combine technical forensics information sources, both in manual and automated processes. These attempts are often bespoke to the specific information sources (such as the bi-, tri-, or quad-isotope chart (Moody, Grant, and Hutcheon 2005)), with some emerging examples of simple early- and late- fusion (, respectively). Simultaneous to the information combination efforts described in the previous paragraph, the field of natural language processing attempted (and largely succeeded) in combining information from multiple non-technical information sources. The ecosystem of “multi-modal” language models, which can take text and images as input, and generate text and images as output, became large and diverse by 2025 (Khan et al. 2025). In a generalized sense, many of these methods are trained by learning neural networks which can convert raw text or images into a vector of numbers describing the text or image, hereafter called “embeddings” and the neural networks performing the conversion are called “embedders”. By using a separate embedder for text and images, finding coincident text and images (such as images with their captions), and optimizing the parameters of the embedders such that the embeddings for the text and the image are similar, the field has found a bridge between text and images (Girdhar et al. 2023). It is the contention of the authors of this report that this insight is not limited to text and images but instead can be extended to any modality which can be found coincidently. The subject of the rest of this report is the application of this method to example multi-modal technical forensic data. Some details about the data used in this report are not appropriate for this report, and are included in a companion report (PNNL-38669).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Topology of the $O(3)$ non-linear sigma model under the gradient flow

The $O(3)$ non-linear sigma model (NLSM) is a prototypical field theory for QCD and ferromagnetism, featuring topological qualities. Though the topological susceptibility should vanish in physical theories, lattice simulations of the NLSM find that the topological susceptibility diverges in the continuum limit. We introduce a $\theta$-term and analyze the topological charge as a function of $\theta$ under the gradient flow. Our results show that divergence persists in the presence of the flow, even at non-zero $\theta$.

Thomas, Stuart↗

Chiral rank-$k$ truncations for the multigrid preconditioner of Wilson fermions in lattice QCD

We present a modification to the setup algorithm for the multigrid preconditioner of Wilson fermions in lattice QCD. A larger number of test vectors than that used in conventional multigrid is generated by the smoother. This set of test vectors is then truncated by a singular value decomposition on the chiral components of the test vectors, which are subsequently used to form the prolongation and restriction matrices of the multigrid hierarchy. This modification is demonstrated to improve the convergence of linear equations on an anisotropic lattice with 𝑚𝜋 ≈ 280 MeV from the Hadron Spectrum Collaboration and an isotropic lattice with 𝑚𝜋 ≈ 220 MeV from the MILC Collaboration. The lattice volume dependence of the method is also examined.

Whyte, Travis [Jülich Supercomputing Center, Jülic↗

Improved quantum algorithms for linear and nonlinear differential equations

We present substantially generalized and improved quantum algorithms over prior work for inhomogeneous linear and nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODE). Specifically, we show how the norm of the matrix exponential characterizes the run time of quantum algorithms for linear ODEs opening the door to an application to a wider class of linear and nonlinear ODEs. In [1], a quantum algorithm for a certain class of linear ODEs is given, where the matrix involved needs to be diagonalizable. The quantum algorithm for linear ODEs presented here extends to many classes of non-diagonalizable matrices including singular matrices. The algorithm here is also exponentially faster than the bounds derived in [1] for certain classes of diagonalizable matrices. Our linear ODE algorithm is then applied to nonlinear differential equations using Carleman linearization (an approach taken recently by us in [2]). The improvement over that result is two-fold. First, we obtain an exponentially better dependence on error. This kind of logarithmic dependence on error has also been achieved by [3], but only for homogeneous nonlinear equations. Second, the present algorithm can handle any sparse matrix (that models dissipation) if it has a negative log-norm (including non-diagonalizable matrices), whereas [2] and [3] additionally require normality.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Bounding the Minimum Time of a Quantum Measurement

Measurements take a singular role in quantum theory. While they are often idealized as an instantaneous process, this is in conflict with all other physical processes in nature. In this Letter, we adopt a standpoint where the interaction with an environment is a crucial ingredient for the occurrence of a measurement. Within this framework, we derive lower bounds on the time needed for a measurement to occur. Our bound scales proportionally to the change in entropy of the measured system, and decreases as the number of of possible measurement outcomes or the interaction strength driving the measurement increases. We evaluate our bound in two examples where the environment is modelled by bosonic modes and the measurement apparatus is modelled by spins or bosons.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

General quantum algorithms for Hamiltonian simulation with applications to a non-Abelian lattice gauge theory

With a focus on universal quantum computing for quantum simulation, and through the example of lattice gauge theories, we introduce rather general quantum algorithms that can efficiently simulate certain classes of interactions consisting of correlated changes in multiple (bosonic and fermionic) quantum numbers with non-trivial functional coefficients. In particular, we analyze diagonalization of Hamiltonian terms using a singular-value decomposition technique, and discuss how the achieved diagonal unitaries in the digitized time-evolution operator can be implemented. The lattice gauge theory studied is the SU(2) gauge theory in 1+1 dimensions coupled to one flavor of staggered fermions, for which a complete quantum-resource analysis within different computational models is presented. The algorithms are shown to be applicable to higher-dimensional theories as well as to other Abelian and non-Abelian gauge theories. The example chosen further demonstrates the importance of adopting efficient theoretical formulations: it is shown that an explicitly gauge-invariant formulation using loop, string, and hadron degrees of freedom simplifies the algorithms and lowers the cost compared with the standard formulations based on angular-momentum as well as the Schwinger-boson degrees of freedom. The loop-string-hadron formulation further retains the non-Abelian gauge symmetry despite the inexactness of the digitized simulation, without the need for costly controlled operations. Such theoretical and algorithmic considerations are likely to be essential in quantumly simulating other complex theories of relevance to nature.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Block encoding bosons by signal processing

Block Encoding (BE) is a crucial subroutine in many modern quantum algorithms, including those with near-optimal scaling for simulating quantum many-body systems, which often rely on Quantum Signal Processing (QSP). Currently, the primary methods for constructing BEs are the Linear Combination of Unitaries (LCU) and the sparse oracle approach. In this work, we demonstrate that QSP-based techniques, such as Quantum Singular Value Transformation (QSVT) and Quantum Eigenvalue Transformation for Unitary Matrices (QETU), can themselves be efficiently utilized for BE implementation. Specifically, we present several examples of using QSVT and QETU algorithms, along with their combinations, to block encode Hamiltonians for lattice bosons, an essential ingredient in simulations of high-energy physics. We also introduce a straightforward approach to BE based on the exact implementation of Linear Operators Via Exponentiation and LCU (LOVE-LCU). We find that, while using QSVT for BE results in the best asymptotic gate count scaling with the number of qubits per site, LOVE-LCU outperforms all other methods for operators acting on up to qubits, highlighting the importance of concrete circuit constructions over mere comparisons of asymptotic scalings. Using LOVE-LCU to implement the BE, we simulate the time evolution of single-site and two-site systems in the lattice theory using the Generalized QSP algorithm and compare the gate counts to those required for Trotter simulation.

Kane, Christopher F↗

Equation-of-Motion Coupled-Cluster Cumulant Green’s Function for Excited States and X-ray Spectra

Green’s function methods within many-body perturbation theory provide a general framework for treating electronic correlations in excited states and spectra. Conventional methods using the Dyson equation or the cumulant expansion are typically based on the GW self-energy approximation. In order to extend this approximation in molecular systems, a non-perturbative real-time coupled-cluster cumulant Green’s function approach has been introduced, where the cumulant is obtained as the solution to a set of coupled first order, non-linear differential equations. This approach naturally includes non-linear corrections to conventional cumulant Green’s function techniques where the cumulant is linear in the GW self-energy. The method yields the spectral function associated with the core Green’s function, which is directly related to the x-ray photoemission spectra (XPS) of molecular systems. The approach also yields very good results for binding energies and satellite excitations. The x-ray absorption spectrum (XAS) is then obtained as a convolution of the core spectral function and an effective one-body absorption spectrum. Here this approach is extended to include the full coupled-cluster-singles (CCS) core Green’s function by including the complete form of the non-linear contributions to the cumulant as well as all single, double, and triple cluster excitations in the CC amplitude equations. This approach naturally builds in orthogonality and shake-up effects analogous to those in the Mahan-Noizeres-de Dominicis edge singularity corrections that enhance the XAS near the edge. Themethod is illustrated for the XPS and XAS of NH 3 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Greenhouse gas emissions reduction strategies that maximize portfolio-wide life cycle cost reduction, resilience, and environmental justice benefits

While strategies to achieve net-zero emissions at an individual site are well understood, new analysis methods are required for organizations seeking to achieve net-zero across multiple facilities, each with concurrent priority goals. At a portfolio level, distinct locations present varied challenges that cannot be addressed through singular solutions, and competing goals can take precedence with the assumption that net-zero emissions strategies deter from energy resilience and cost savings, therefore negatively impacting nearby communities. This study tests these assumptions by analyzing 16 diverse sites (varying in size, climate, and energy use) to identify strategies that reduce emissions and assess the impact these strategies have on life cycle costs, resilience, and communities with environmental justice concerns. Methods were developed to approximate missing information essential to net-zero evaluation. Established methods were augmented to evaluate life cycle costs, resilience, and environmental justice impacts across a set of strategies and accommodate the multi-criteria analyses. Potential benefits from identified strategies were quantified using site characteristics and a set of corresponding metrics. The net-zero analysis found that 11 sites could use on-site strategies to eliminate all but 2% of emissions generated. The remaining emissions can be offset, for instance through sequestration, executed at the portfolio scale. On-site carbon-free energy was found to reduce 51% of emissions across all sites; efficiency reduced 19% of emissions; sequestration 16%; procured carbon-free energy 15%; fuel switching 1.6%; and fleet electrification 1.3%. Building electrification, however, increased emissions by 4.4%. Different strategies also provide cost, resilience, and/or environmental justice benefits—the degree to which varies with individual site conditions. The findings indicate an advantage to considering the strategies as a comprehensive set, which leads to co-benefits, both in the ability to achieve net-zero goals and in advancing other goals. The results present the case for comprehensive advanced planning at the portfolio level to prioritize investments that will balance the minimization of emissions and life cycle cost with the maximization of resilience and environmental justice benefits. The novel methods for evaluation and integration, valuation of benefits, and consideration at the portfolio scale allow organizations to select investments that simultaneously address multiple key priorities.

Net-Zero Emissions↗

Warning Signs of Potential Black Swan Outbreaks in Infectious Disease

Black swan events in infectious disease describe rare but devastatingly large outbreaks. While experts are skeptical that such events are predictable, it might be possible to identify the warning signs of a black swan event. Specifically, following the initiation of an outbreak, key differentiating features could serve as alerts. Such features could be derived from meta-analyses of large outbreaks for multiple infectious diseases. We hypothesized there may be common features among the pathogen, environment, and host epidemiological triad that characterize an infectious disease black swan event. Using Los Alamos National Laboratory’s tool, Analytics for Investigation of Disease Outbreaks, we investigated historical disease outbreak information and anomalous events for several infectious diseases. By studying 32 different infectious diseases and global outbreaks, we observed that in the past 20–30 years, there have been potential black swan events in the majority of infectious diseases analyzed. Importantly, these potential black swan events cannot be attributed to the first introduction of the disease to a susceptible host population. This paper describes our observations and perspectives and illustrates the value of broad analysis of data across the infectious disease realm, providing insights that may not be possible when we focus on singular infectious agents or diseases. Data analytics could be developed to warn health authorities at the beginning of an outbreak of an impending black swan event. Such tools could complement traditional epidemiological modeling to help forecast future large outbreaks and facilitate timely warning and effective, targeted resource allocation for mitigation efforts.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Advances in statistical methods for cancer surveillance research: an age-period-cohort perspective

Background: Analysis of Lexis diagrams (population-based cancer incidence and mortality rates indexed by age group and calendar period) requires specialized statistical methods. However, existing methods have limitations that can now be overcome using new approaches. Methods: We assembled a “toolbox” of novel methods to identify trends and patterns by age group, calendar period, and birth cohort. We evaluated operating characteristics across 152 cancer incidence Lexis diagrams compiled from United States (US) Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program data for 21 leading cancers in men and women in four race and ethnicity groups (the “cancer incidence panel”). Results: Nonparametric singular values adaptive kernel filtration (SIFT) decreased the estimated root mean squared error by 90% across the cancer incidence panel. A novel method for semi-parametric age-period-cohort analysis (SAGE) provided optimally smoothed estimates of age-period-cohort (APC) estimable functions and stabilized estimates of lack-of-fit (LOF). SAGE identified statistically significant birth cohort effects across the entire cancer panel; LOF had little impact. As illustrated for colon cancer, newly developed methods for comparative age-period-cohort analysis can elucidate cancer heterogeneity that would otherwise be difficult or impossible to discern using standard methods. Conclusions: Cancer surveillance researchers can now identify fine-scale temporal signals with unprecedented accuracy and elucidate cancer heterogeneity with unprecedented specificity. Birth cohort effects are ubiquitous modulators of cancer incidence in the US. The novel methods described here can advance cancer surveillance research.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Detection of Extreme Phenomena in the Stable Boundary Layer over the Amazonian Forest

We apply different methods for detection of extreme phenomena (EP) in air-turbulent time series measured in the nocturnal boundary layer above the Amazon forest. The methods used were: (a) a Morlet complex wavelet transform, which is often used in analysis of non-linear application processes. Through the use of the wavelet, it is possible to observe a phase singularity that involves a strong interaction between an extensive range of scales; (b) recurrence plot tests, which were used to identify a sudden change between different stable atmospheric states. (c) statistical analysis of early-warning signals, which verify simultaneous increases in the autocorrelation function and in the variance in the state variable; and (d) analysis of wind speed versus turbulent kinetic energy to identify different turbulent regimes in the stable boundary layer. We found it is adequate to use a threshold to classify the cases of strong turbulence regime, as a result of the occurrence of EP in the tropical atmosphere. All methods used corroborate and indicate synergy between events that culminate in what we classify as EP of the stable boundary layer above the tropical forest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of Building Design Optimization Methodology: Residential Building Applications

Building design optimization is a highly complex problem, requiring long computational running processes because of the many options that exist when a building is being designed. This paper introduces an integrated approach through which to perform this optimization within an acceptable time frame. The approach includes the methods of variable selection, model simplification, and a sequential optimization process. Using singular value decomposition, a large number of design variables is reduced to a smaller subset that can be solved more quickly through the optimization algorithm. To expedite the variable selection process, a modeling approach that quickly simulates annual energy consumption was developed to replace full annual energy simulations. The developed methodology was applied to two residential buildings in the US, and the results are discussed herein. To assess the accuracy of the integrated optimization methodology, the optimized life cycle costs are compaa variables demonstrating the strongest contributions in the optimization study were identified. The proposed methodology significantly shortened the time requirements for the optimization processes of the two case studies by 74% and 84%; the optimized life cycle costs were within 0.05% and 0.06%, respectively, of the optimum point.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A State-Space Model of an Inverter-Based Microgrid for Multivariable Feedback Control Analysis and Design

In this work, a synchronous model for grid-connected and islanded microgrids is presented. The grid-connected model is based on the premise that the reference frame is synchronized with the AC bus. The quadrature component of the AC bus voltage can be cancelled, which allows to express output power as a linear equation for nominal values in the AC bus amplitude voltage. The model for the islanded microgrid is developed by integrating all the inverter dynamics using a state-space model for the load currents. This model is presented in a comprehensive way such that it could be scalable to any number of inverter-based generators using inductor–capacitor–inductor (LCL) output filters. The use of these models allows designers to assess microgrid stability and robustness using modern control methods such as eigenvalue analysis and singular value diagrams. Both models were tested and validated in an experimental setup to demonstrate their accuracy in describing microgrid dynamics. In addition, three scenarios are presented: non-controlled model, Linear-Quadratic Integrator (LQI) power control, and Power-Voltage (PQ/Vdq) droop–boost controller. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the control strategies and the accuracy of the models to describe microgrid dynamics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗