Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Scenario planning”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 775 records · Page 43

Rephasing and Loitering Strategies in the Gateway Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit

NASA's Gateway plans to operate in an L2 9:2 lunar synodic Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO) for nominal operations. During the mission's lifetime, scenarios may arise where rephasing within the NRHO or loitering in an alternate trajectory are advantageous. This investigation discusses two strategies to perform this rephasing in the NRHO over a relatively short timespan. The first method uses two maneuvers to shift the phase along a single transfer arc. The second strategy employs four maneuvers, leveraging an intermediate orbit for rephasing. An optimization strategy is formulated to construct locally optimal solutions in the Circular Restricted Three-Body Problem (CR3BP) and verified in a higher-fidelity ephemeris model.

NRHO↗

Temporal Changes in Astronauts’ Muscle and Cardiorespiratory Physiology Before, During, and After Spaceflight

NASA’s planned space exploration missions will require astronauts to safely perform extravehicular activity (EVA) and to safely egress vehicles in a variety of landing scenarios. Prolonged exposure to spaceflight decreases cardiovascular and sensorimotor function, causes loss of bone mineral density, reduces muscle mass and strength, and ultimately diminishes tolerance for physical activity. Although exercise can help mitigate these spaceflight-induced physiological decrements, little is known regarding the time-course of changes in muscle and aerobic performance during spaceflight. Furthermore, these exercise countermeasures are not fully protective. For example, maximal aerobic capacity (VO2pk), lower body muscle cross-sectional area, and strength all decrease by about 10% to 15% after long-duration missions on the International Space Station (ISS). Future long-duration space missions beyond Low Earth Orbit will employ exploration vehicles with less robust exercise hardware and more constrained exercise capabilities (e.g., less operational volume, less active exercise time) than provided on the ISS. Thus, countermeasures will need to be optimized to protect crew health and performance on exploration-class missions lasting up to 3 years. This requires a more detailed understanding of the dynamic effects of spaceflight on human health and performance, the ability of exercise to protect against this deconditioning, and the interaction of exercise with interrelated factors like nutrition, sleep, and environmental conditions.

N.C. Strock↗

OSIRIS-REx Earth Return & Entry: Targeting Strategy and Maneuver Performance

The OSIRIS-REx sample return capsule landed safely in the Utah desert on September 24, 2023. Starting with the departure from asteroid Bennu in May 2021 through the release of the sample capsule and its arrival at the edge of Earth’s atmosphere hours later, this phase of the mission was planned and analyzed thoroughly to optimize the probability of a successful sample return in a large number of nominal and off-nominal scenarios, all while emphasizing spacecraft safety. This paper discusses the spacecraft and sample capsule Earth return and atmospheric entry trajectory design, maneuver analysis, and flight performance, which ultimately helped lead to a successful sample return and initiation of the OSIRIS-APEX extended mission.

Daniel R. Wibben↗

Temporal Changes in Astronauts’ Muscle and Cardiorespiratory Physiology Before, During, and After Spaceflight

NASA’s planned space exploration missions will require astronauts to safely perform extravehicular activity (EVA) and to safely egress vehicles in a variety of landing scenarios. Prolonged exposure to spaceflight decreases cardiovascular and sensorimotor function, causes loss of bone mineral density, reduces muscle mass and strength, and ultimately diminishes tolerance for physical activity. Although exercise can help mitigate these spaceflight-induced physiological decrements, little is known regarding the time-course of changes in muscle and aerobic performance during spaceflight. Furthermore, these exercise countermeasures are not fully protective. For example, maximal aerobic capacity (VO2pk), lower body muscle cross-sectional area, and strength all decrease by about 10% to 15% after long-duration missions on the International Space Station (ISS). Future long-duration space missions beyond Low Earth Orbit will employ exploration vehicles with less robust exercise hardware and more constrained exercise capabilities (e.g., less operational volume, less active exercise time) than provided on the ISS. Thus, countermeasures will need to be optimized to protect crew health and performance on exploration-class missions lasting up to 3 years. This requires a more detailed understanding of the dynamic effects of spaceflight on human health and performance, the ability of exercise to protect against this deconditioning, and the interaction of exercise with interrelated factors like nutrition, sleep, and environmental conditions.

N. Strock↗

Introducing the 9500 Node Distribution Test System to Support Advanced Power Applications: An Operations-Focused Approach

The 9500 Node Test System is a representative section of distribution power system model developed as a part of the GridAPPS-D™ project, an effort funded by DOE as a part of the Grid Modernization Lab Consortium (GMLC) program. The test system was developed to fulfill a growing need to represent the rapidly evolving state of electric distribution systems by combining elements of legacy infrastructure systems, modern feeder topologies, and an anticipated future with smart grid technologies. It also provides a network model capable of supporting the simulation of operational scenarios such as the ones in a utility distribution control center. This test system allows the evaluation of the performance of advanced power applications in real-time, such as one that simulates the operations of an Advanced Distribution Management Systems (ADMS), Distributed Energy Resource Management Systems (DERMS), etc. in a Distribution control center. This model is an extension of the widely used IEEE 8500 Node Test Feeder and is currently being validated to become an IEEE test case to help increase adoption and widespread usage among both academia and industry. It is a full-size model representative of a section of a utility’s distribution system with multiple feeders fed from different substations. The model includes multiple distribution circuits, a sub-transmission system, multiple substations, behind the meter customer rooftop photovoltaics (PV), and multiple utility-scale distributed energy resources. To enable accurate simulations of operational scenarios, the 9500 Node Test System is designed to support procedure-based operations, with the ability to realistically demonstrate switching operations, feeder reconfiguration, adjustment of volt-var control equipment, dispatch of distributed generation, and response to planned and unplanned outages. The 9500 Node Test System includes three radial distribution feeders with 12.3 MVA of average load, consisting of both medium voltage and low voltage equipment each supplied by a different distribution substation. The three distribution feeders are connected to each other through Normally-Open switches which can be closed when needed to simulate restoration scenarios due to a fault. One feeder represents today’s grid with low penetration of customer-side renewables. The second represents a potential future grid with microgrids and 100% renewable penetration. The third has no customer generation resources, a district steam plant, and a utility-scale solar farm. The three diverse circuits were created to allow the simulation of both today’s situation as well as potential future scenarios. All three feeders have customers connected by low-voltage secondary triplex lines. This test system meets all requirements outlined in the report for creating a simulation environment that would enable discussion between key technical stakeholders as well as having the potential to accelerate operational application development and their subsequent testing and integration. The new model is a possible representation of what we believe the distribution grid may look like in the future: a high penetration of renewables, reconfigurable radial and mesh topology, numerous DERs, islanded microgrids, and significantly increased data and measurement density. The system supports both the solution of existing and newer algorithms but also enables the evaluation of applications in a realistic operational environment defined by task oriented procedural steps that represent the interaction between the control center operator and field personnel.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Storage Futures Study: The Four Phases of Storage Deployment: A Framework for the Expanding Role of Storage in the U.S. Power System

This report is one in a series of NREL’s Storage Futures Study (SFS) publications. The SFS is a multiyear research project that explores the role and impact of energy storage in the evolution and operation of the U.S. power sector. The SFS is designed to examine the potential impact of energy storage technology advancement on the deployment of utility-scale storage and the adoption of distributed storage, and the implications for future power system infrastructure investment and operations. The research findings and supporting data will be published as a series of publications. The table on the next page lists the planned publications and specific research topics they will examine under the SFS. This report, the first in the SFS series, explores the roles and opportunities for new, cost-competitive stationary energy storage with a conceptual framework based on four phases of current and potential future storage deployment, and presents a value proposition for energy storage that could result in substantial new cost-effective deployments. This conceptual framework provides a broader context for consideration of the later reports in the series, including the detailed results of the modeling and analysis of power system evolution scenarios and their operational implications

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Exploring impacts of electricity tariff on charging infrastructure planning: An activity-based approach

In the past decade, electric vehicles (EVs) have gained popularity for their efficiency and environmental benefits. Advances in battery technology and charging equipment have yielded long-range EVs and fast-charging. However, many major cities lack adequate charging infrastructure for daily EV use. This study addresses this gap by integrating activity-based modeling, charging behavior simulation, and charging infrastructure optimization. The research utilizes the POLARIS agent-based transportation model to accurately capture user activities, trip patterns, and traffic flows. Additionally, the study investigates the impact of fixed and spatiotemporal electricity rate distributions on optimal charging infrastructure deployment. The framework is applied to the Chicago regional area network and analyzed under various EV ownership scenarios. Further, the results reveal significant impacts of the charging pricing strategy on user decision-making and charging demand distribution. There is also a need for consistent pricing policies in charging infrastructure planning and operational phases to avoid drops in service quality.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Enhancing the EVI-X National Framework to Address Emerging Questions on Charging Infrastructure Deployment

As large national investments in EV charging continue to be made, this project seeks to improve the state-of-the-art in EV infrastructure analysis. New and improved quantitative analysis capabilities will position VTO to support EERE Leadership, assist the DOT/DOE Joint Office through timely analysis, and provide a strategy for the deployment of the national charging network. This project supports on-going development of NREL's EVI-X Suite of charging infrastructure analysis tools, including tools supporting large-scale network planning, local site design decisions, and comprehensive financial analysis. EVI-X development complements and leverages other VTO-funded efforts to ensure inputs to EVI-X and output produced by EVI-X are consistent with and well-integrated into the VTO portfolio (e.g., EV adoption scenarios from TEMPO, charging infrastructure design provided to EVs@Scale, etc.).

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

PPPL Report on Reduced Modeling of Fusion Alpha Transport in ARC Burning Plasmas

We are reporting on the modeling of fusion alpha particle transport in the planned ARC fusion device being designed by the CFS (Commonwealth Fusion Systems: https://cfs.energy). The ARC tokamak is designed to operate in a burning-plasma regime characterized by a substantial population of fusion-born alpha particles. Alfvén eigenmode (AE) stability is assessed both analytically and numerically, incorporating alpha-particle drive, ion Landau, and radiative damping from thermal species and collisional damping from trapped electrons. Regions of unstable and near-threshold AE activity are mapped across ARC’s operational parameter space. Linear stability analysis with NOVA indicates multiple, often marginally unstable AEs, extending to toroidal mode numbers up to n= 30. The present report focuses on the ARC flat-top operating point prior to the sawtooth event. Alpha-particle transport on timescales exceeding the neoclassical slowing-down time is assessed using the NUBEAM module [1][2] of the TRANSP code [3], employing transport coefficients derived from the RBQ quasilinear modeling (cf. Appendix B). These global simulations identify favorable and unfavorable operating regimes with respect to alpha confinement, pressure redistribution, and overall alpha-heating efficiency. We also evaluate additional transport mechanisms—including neoclassical tearing mode (TM)–induced stochasticity, sawtooth-driven redistribution, and toroidal-field ripple using the kick model (cf. Appendix C) which makes use of the guiding-center code ORBIT, see Section 5. The kick model is integrated into TRANSP to enable self-consistent predictions of alpha-driven current formation and sustainment within the ARC scenario. Sensitivity scans are performed over the mode frequency, rational-surface alignment, island width, mode amplitude, and proximity of the limiter to the plasma. Our study provides an initial, physics-based guidance for machine design, operational planning, and equilibrium control, ensuring adequate alpha confinement and robust self-heating performance in ARC. Our simulations mostly targeted worst case scenarios, e.g. for TMs and sawteeth. Overall, we expect benign effects for the ARC scenario investigated in this work on fusion alpha confinement and losses in the presence of AEs, tearing modes and sawteeth. This report addresses three thrusts identified at the outset. The first thrust focuses on analytic estimates of the parametric dependencies of EP relaxation based on local AE stability simulations (Section 3). The second thrust involves global evaluations of AE stability using the NOVA, RBQ, and NUBEAM codes (Section 4). Finally, we investigate alpha-particle transport driven by low-frequency instabilities associated with sawteeth and tearing modes (Section 5).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

pnnl/DPVPROT

Distributed photovoltaics protection software toolkit The code package includes several important functions for design and analysis of new grid protection schemes, for scenarios of distributed photovoltaic (DPV) generation approaching 100% of the peak feeder load, i.e., high-penetration DPV. Convert distribution feeder models, used by planning engineers, to electromagnetic transient (EMT) models that produce waveforms for advanced relay algorithms. Visualize the results of protection scheme operation. Tools to determine distance relay settings on distribution systems. Tools to predict the performance of time-domain, incremental distance relay algorithms

McDermott, Tom↗

SCALE 6.3 Modeling Strategies for Reactivity, Nuclide Inventory, and Decay Heat of Non-LWRs

To assess modeling and simulation capabilities for thermal hydraulics, accident progression, source term, and consequence analysis for non–light-water reactor (LWR) technologies, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated a collaborative project between Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in FY20, which is detailed in “Volume 3: Computer Code Development Plans for Severe Accident Progression, Source Term, and Consequence Analysis.” This project demonstrated the capabilities of the MELCOR and SCALE codes to calculate accident scenarios during operation of relevant non-LWRs. The following five non-LWR concepts were selected for capability demonstration based on recently renewed industry interest in the United States to develop and deploy such reactor technologies: pebble-bed high temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs), pebble-bed fluoride salt-cooled reactors (FHRs), molten salt–fueled reactors (MSRs), heat pipe reactors (HPRs), and sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

LOCOMOTIVES - Comprehensive Impact and Cost Assessment Framework of Carbon Lowering Approaches for the US Rail Freight System

The goal of this project is to develop a tool to aid railroads and other stakeholders assess and approach the decarbonization of freight rail operations by identifying new, viable low-carbon energy storage and conversion systems for future locomotive systems and how they should be deployed on the existing US freight rail network. In the first quarter, the project focused on collecting data, establishing a simulation workflow, and engaging industry through the creation of the Industry Advisory Board (IAB). In the second quarter, the project focused on selecting fuel pathways and powertrain technologies, setting performance targets, conducting a techno-economic analyses, and developing the simulation framework that would serve as the backbone of the future toolhead. The third quarter involved developing an industry-oriented interactive dashboard powered by a five-step sequential framework, as well as holding industry advisory board meetings as per the initial technology-to-market plan. In the remaining project quarters, the NUFRIEND dashboard were fine-tuned with the help of IAB member feedback and in-depth scenario analyses were conducted to support the techno-economic analysis of energy sources. Additionally, dashboard documentation, project insights, and open-source code on GitHub were prepared and released. Throughout the project, the team completed testing and analysis of all model components, integrated all initial test scenarios, and conducted stakeholder engagement. Lower-carbon drop-in fuels can be deployed as admixtures and are considered uniform across the network at a desired penetration rate, while hydrogen and battery-electric technology deployment poses a more complex problem as they require significant investments to be made in the siting of refueling/charging facilities and the replacement of locomotive fleets. Thus, strategies for locating and sizing refueling/charging facilities on a railroad’s network to meet their energy demands were developed to inform deployment decisions. To address this challenge, the Northwestern University Freight Rail Infrastructure & Energy Network Decarbonization (NUFRIEND) framework presents a five-step sequential framework to select O-D paths, locate facilities, reroute flows, size facilities, and evaluate the deployment for alternative energy sources that require locomotive powertrains to be converted and new refueling infrastructure to be deployed. The NUFRIEND Framework is an industry-oriented tool for simulating the deployment of new energy technologies across the US freight rail network. The framework provides a comprehensive network-level optimization and scenario simulation tool for decarbonizing the freight rail sector, addressing the uncertainties surrounding technological developments by supporting sensitivity analyses for different operational and technological parameters through a transparent and flexible input module. It offers practical alternatives to diesel locomotives and can be applied for any railroad considering the specific network structure and freight demand, outputting evaluation metrics for the associated emissions and costs relative to diesel operations. A number of relevant simulation scenarios were run and analyzed for key insights on the value of different alternative technologies for freight rail decarbonization. The project developments and findings have been presented at numerous conferences and events.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Reactive transport modeling for supporting climate resilience at groundwater contamination sites

Abstract. Climate resilience is an emerging issue at contaminated sites and hazardous waste sites, since projected climate shifts (e.g., increased/decreased precipitation) and extreme events (e.g., flooding, drought) could affect ongoing remediation or closure strategies. In this study, we develop a reactive transport model (Amanzi) for radionuclides (uranium, tritium, and others) and evaluate how different scenarios under climate change will influence the contaminant plume conditions and groundwater well concentrations. We demonstrate our approach using a two-dimensional (2D) reactive transport model for the Savannah River Site F-Area, including mineral reaction and sorption processes. Different recharge scenarios are considered by perturbing the infiltration rate from the base case as well as considering cap-failure and climate projection scenarios. We also evaluate the uranium and nitrate concentration ratios between scenarios and the base case to isolate the sorption effects with changing recharge rates. The modeling results indicate that the competing effects of dilution and remobilization significantly influence pH, thus changing the sorption of uranium. At the maximum concentration on the breakthrough curve, higher aqueous uranium concentration implies that sorption is reduced with lower pH due to remobilization. To better evaluate the climate change impacts in the future, we develop the workflow to include the downscaled CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate projection data in the reactive transport model and evaluate how residual contamination evolves through 2100 under four climate Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The integration of climate modeling data and hydrogeochemistry models enables us to quantify the climate change impacts, assess which impacts need to be planned for, and therefore assist climate resiliency efforts and help guide site management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Collection of Technical Papers

Papers presented at the 6th Space Logistics Symposium covered such areas as: The International Space Station; The Hubble Space Telescope; Launch site computer simulation; Integrated logistics support; The Baikonur Cosmodrome; Probabalistic tools for high confidence repair; A simple space station rescue vehicle; Integrated Traffic Model for the International Space Station; Packaging the maintenance shop; Leading edge software support; Storage information management system; Consolidated maintenance inventory logistics planning; Operation concepts for a single stage to orbit vehicle; Mission architecture for human lunar exploration; Logistics of a lunar based solar power satellite scenario; Just in time in space; NASA acquisitions/logistics; Effective transition management; Shuttle logistics; and Revitalized space operations through total quality control management.

Source record↗

Lunar and Mars Exploration: The Autonomy Factor

Long duration space flight crews have relied heavily on almost constant communication with ground control mission support. Ground control teams provide vehicle status and system monitoring, while offering near real time support for specific tasks, emergencies, and ensuring crew health and well being. With extended exploration goals to lunar and Mars outposts, real time communication with ground control teams and the ground s ability to conduct mission monitoring will be very limited compared to the resources provided to current International Space Station (ISS) crews. An operational shift toward more autonomy and a heavier reliance on the crew to monitor their vehicle and operations will be required for these future missions. NASA s future exploration endeavors and the subsequent increased autonomy will require a shift in crew skill composition, i.e. engineer, doctor, mission specialist etc. and lead to new training challenges and mission scenarios. Specifically, operational and design changes will be necessary in many areas including: Habitat Infrastructure and Support Systems, Crew Composition, Training, Procedures and Mission Planning. This paper will specifically address how to apply ISS lessons learned to further use ISS as a test bed to address decreased amounts of ground support to achieve full autonomous operations for lunar and Mars missions. Understanding these lessons learned and applying them to current operations will help to address the future impacts of increased crew autonomy for the lunar and Mars outposts and pave the way for success in increasingly longer mission durations.

Rando, Cynthia M.↗

Convective Weather Avoidance with Uncertain Weather Forecasts

Convective weather events have a disruptive impact on air traffic both in terminal area and in en-route airspaces. In order to make sure that the national air transportation system is safe and efficient, it is essential to respond to convective weather events effectively. Traffic flow control initiatives in response to convective weather include ground delay, airborne delay, miles-in-trail restrictions as well as tactical and strategic rerouting. The rerouting initiatives can potentially increase traffic density and complexity in regions neighboring the convective weather activity. There is a need to perform rerouting in an intelligent and efficient way such that the disruptive effects of rerouting are minimized. An important area of research is to study the interaction of in-flight rerouting with traffic congestion or complexity and developing methods that quantitatively measure this interaction. Furthermore, it is necessary to find rerouting solutions that account for uncertainties in weather forecasts. These are important steps toward managing complexity during rerouting operations, and the paper is motivated by these research questions. An automated system is developed for rerouting air traffic in order to avoid convective weather regions during the 20- minute - 2-hour time horizon. Such a system is envisioned to work in concert with separation assurance (0 - 20-minute time horizon), and longer term air traffic management (2-hours and beyond) to provide a more comprehensive solution to complexity and safety management. In this study, weather is dynamic and uncertain; it is represented as regions of airspace that pilots are likely to avoid. Algorithms are implemented in an air traffic simulation environment to support the research study. The algorithms used are deterministic but periodically revise reroutes to account for weather forecast updates. In contrast to previous studies, in this study convective weather is represented as regions of airspace that pilots are likely to avoid. The automated system periodically updates forecasts and reassesses rerouting decisions in order to account for changing weather predictions. The main objectives are to reroute flights to avoid convective weather regions and determine the resulting complexity due to rerouting. The eventual goal is to control and reduce complexity while rerouting flights during the 20 minute - 2 hour planning period. A three-hour simulation is conducted using 4800 flights in the national airspace. The study compares several metrics against a baseline scenario using the same traffic and weather but with rerouting disabled. The results show that rerouting can have a negative impact on congestion in some sectors, as expected. The rerouting system provides accurate measurements of the resulting complexity in the congested sectors. Furthermore, although rerouting is performed only in the 20-minute - 2-hour range, it results in a 30% reduction in encounters with nowcast weather polygons (100% being the ideal for perfectly predictable and accurate weather). In the simulations, rerouting was performed for the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon, and for the en-route segment of air traffic. The implementation uses CWAM, a set of polygons that represent probabilities of pilot deviation around weather. The algorithms were implemented in a software-based air traffic simulation system. Initial results of the system's performance and effectiveness were encouraging. Simulation results showed that when flights were rerouted in the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon of air traffic, there were fewer weather encounters in the first 20 minutes than for flights that were not rerouted. Some preliminary results were also obtained that showed that rerouting will also increase complexity. More simulations will be conducted in order to report conclusive results on the effects of rerouting on complexity. Thus, the use of the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon weather avoidance teniques performed in the simulation is expected to provide benefits for short-term weather avoidance.

Karahan, Sinan↗