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At least 775 records · Page 43

The Distribution of U.S. Electric Utility Revenue Decoupling Rate Impacts from 2005 to 2017

Investments in energy efficiency and distributed generation reduce electric utility retail sales. Since electric utilities have historically collected a large portion of revenues from volumetric energy rates (¢/kWh), such reductions in sales can impact the utility’s ability to sufficiently recover non-production costs. Regulatory mechanisms that “decouple” utility revenues from sales were implemented to help make the utility indifferent to energy efficiency and distributed generation by ensuring the utility is able to collect an allowed level of revenue each year regardless of its sales. However, noticeable and consistent surcharges over time may create the perception of an incorrectly designed or implemented decoupling mechanism. To date, there are limited quantitative analyses of the rate adjustments due to decoupling mechanisms implemented among U.S. electric utilities (see Morgan, 2013). Given the recent rapid increase in distributed energy resource (DER) adoption in some states and utility service territories, consumers may be facing more prevalent and ongoing decoupling surcharges. This, in turn, may undermine stakeholder support for implementation of decoupling mechanisms and the associated utility support for energy efficiency and DERs. To determine the size of retail rate adjustments associated with decoupling mechanisms and whether they have a tendency towards bill surcharges or credits, we analyzed a large dataset of historical annual decoupling rate adjustments for 21 electric utilities in 11 states between 2005 and 2017. We found that decoupling mechanisms adjusted rates, both up and down, between rate cases, and the majority of those adjustments (54 percent) are small (within a range of -1 to 1 percent). However, we also found that 64 percent of the rate adjustment observations in our sample showed a positive rate adjustment. Importantly, once a surcharge is applied there is an 86 percent chance that there will be a surcharge in the next year as well. While our analysis did not seek to understand the root causes for such results, some possible factors include the accuracy of revenue requirement forecasts, emerging structural changes in customer use and production of energy, misaligned financial motivation, and other factors that influence sales (e.g., economic recession).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Meta-Analysis of Advanced Nuclear Reactor Cost Estimations

Supporting Data can be downloaded at: https://gain.inl.gov/content/uploads/4/2024/06/INL-RPT-24-77048-R1.xlsx Nuclear energy is a critical cornerstone of the current United States clean energy supply and may play a larger role in the future in support of a transition to a net-zero economy. The current fleet of nuclear reactors predominantly consists of large light-water reactors (LWRs), while many of the reactor designs under consideration are smaller and/or different technologies. Because these new designs have not yet been built, there is a high degree of uncertainty associated with their cost. This complicates energy-planning efforts because cost projections are not always standardized, consistent, and centralized in an easily accessible location. To help support energy planning in the US, this report provides advanced nuclear cost ranges using a transparent methodology along with other relevant information that can be used to help support decision making and energy planning. The purpose of this work was to conduct a methodical process for cost evaluation using only public information that was vetted with the end-goal to provide reference cost projections for nuclear energy. To provide a solid basis for these values, the approach and assumptions are explicitly laid out throughout the report allowing any user of the data to challenge or reconsider them. Because future US nuclear-reactor costs are still unknown due to little recent observed data, the report opted to compile a comprehensive list of bottom-up estimates and evaluate averages/trends within the data to identify reference ranges. This was deemed preferable to opining on the robustness or validity of one cost estimation versus another. To that end, the work evaluated thousands of lines of cost subaccounts from several bottom-up cost estimates. A wide variety of different reactor types captured in the data are of various sizes and technologies. Some of these reactors will be representative of advanced reactors under development while others will not. Thus, the results here are dependent on the data that are available and the accuracy of the estimates that are used. Each bottom-up estimate was reviewed to determine whether it was complete. Incomplete data sets were corrected to ensure an adequate basis of cross-comparison. The report is not without limitations and should be interpreted as an initial step to develop cost ranges for nuclear technology. Ultimately, future work can build upon the methodology with refined cost estimates to reduce uncertainty. US-based overnight capital cost (OCC) estimates were compiled from extensive data sets into ranges for both large and small reactor sizes for 2030. To project the cost declines over time, learning rates were sampled from literature sources. No SMRs were previously built; hence, learning rates based on bottom-up approaches (e.g., by quantifying the impact stemming from fabrication of different components, modular work, site construction, commissioning) were prioritized. For larger reactors, actual learning rates from deployments were used to project future costs (adjusted to account for standardization or lack thereof between designs). Other costs included are fixed and variable operations and maintenance costs. The final variables were capacity factors and ramp rates to support energy planning.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Airborne Sunphotometry of African Dust and Marine Boundary Layer Aerosols in PRIDE

The Puerto Rico Dust Experiment (PRIDE) was conducted during summer 2000 to study the radiative, microphysical and transport properties of Saharan dust in the Caribbean region. During PRIDE, NASA Ames Research Center's six-channel airborne autotracking sunphotometer (AATS-6) was operated aboard a Piper Navajo airplane based at Roosevelt Roads Naval Station on the northeast coast of Puerto Rico. AATS-6 measurements were taken during 21 science flights off the coast of Puerto Rico in the western Caribbean. Data were acquired within and above the Marine Boundary Layer (MBL) and the Saharan Aerosol Layer (SAL) up to 5.5 km altitude tinder a wide range of dust loadings. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) spectra and columnar water vapor (CWV) values have been calculated from the AATS-6 measurements by using sunphotometer calibration data obtained at Mauna Loa Observatory (3A kin ASL) before (May) and after (October) PRIDE. Mid-visible AOD values measured near the surface during PRIDE ranged from 0.07 on the cleanest day to 0.55 on the most turbid day. Values measured above the MBL were as high as 0.35; values above the SAL were as low as 0.01. The fraction of total column AOD due to Saharan dust cannot be determined precisely from AATS-6 AOD data alone due to the uncertainty in the extent of vertical mixing of the dust down through the MBL. However, analyses of ground-based and airborne in-situ aerosol sampling measurements and ground-based aerosol lidar backscatter data should yield accurate characterization of the vertical mixing that will enable calculation of the Saharan dust AOD component from the sunphotometer data. Examples will be presented showing measured AATS-6 AOD spectra, calculated aerosol extinction and water vapor density vertical profiles, and aerosol size distributions retrieved by inversion of the AOD spectra. Near sea-surface AOD spectra acquired by AATS-6 during horizontal flight legs at 30 m ASL are available for validation of AOD derived from coincident satellite sensor (TOMS, MODIS, MISR) measurements. AATS-6 AOD data acquired during numerous aircraft ascents and descents through the MBL and the SAL should permit atmospheric column closure analyses with respect to aerosol optical depth, extinction, and size distribution by comparison with coincident aircraft-based in-situ particle size distribution measurements and ground-based (Cabras Island, Puerto Rico) micropulse lidar aerosol backscatter measurements. The aerosol information derived from the column closure analyses can be used subsequently to calculate radiative flux changes, which can then be compared with coincident spectral flux measurements taken from aboard the aircraft with a solar spectral flux radiometer.

Livingston, John M.↗

Electrostatic Discharge Testing of Carbon Composite Solar Array Panels for NASA's Planned Europa Mission to Jupiter

The next planned NASA mission to visit Jupiter is known as the Europa Mission. The objective of this mission concept is to enter orbit around Jupiter in order to conduct multiple close flybys of the icy moon Europa. After careful trade studies, the mission designers have selected solar arrays as the baseline power system for the proposed mission rather than more traditional radioisotope thermoelectric generators. In order to examine the risk of using solar arrays, a series of tests were devised to determine the response of a typical solar array coupon to energetic electrons. Test coupons were fabricated and exposed to electrons ranging from 10 keV to 100 keV, at 1 nA/cm2, while being held at both room and cryogenic temperatures and exposed to end of mission radiation levels. While under electron bombardment, electrical discharges were observed and recorded with the majority of discharges occurring with electron energies of 25 keV. The largest effects on discharge size and rate were the decrease in temperature and the reduction of dielectric material on the sample surface. These tests indicate that solar array panels could be used by the planned Europa Mission in the Jovian environment, but that electrostatic discharges could be expected on the carbon composite solar arrays.

carbon composite↗

Chemical and Structural Alterations in the Amorphous Structure of Obsidian due to Nanolites

Obsidian is volcanic glass that results from the rapid cooling of silica-rich melt. Nanoscale crystallites precipitate out of the melt prior to solidification and remain embedded in the amorphous matrix. These crystallites provide information on the flow kinetics and composition of the melt. Due to the sparsity and size of nanolites, studies often focus on supramicron crystallites. This research takes advantage of the conchoidal fracture of obsidian by knapping samples with nanometer-thin edges for transmission electron microscopy characterization. Nanolites in the amorphous matrix are studied using energy-dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) and electron diffraction. Certain alkali and alkaline-earth cations exhibit patterns of depletion near Fe-oxide nanolites. EDS is used to identify nanolites and variations in the composition of the matrix. Parallel beam diffraction and radial distribution function analysis of nearest-neighbor distances determine average bond lengths in the matrix near nanolites, showing that nanolites influence the nearby short-range ordering and atomic character of the matrix. Analysis reveals decreased mean nearest-neighbor distances in the matrix adjacent to nanolites compared to the bulk. Our methods exhibit the required sensitivity to detect variations in the composition and structure near nanolites, and our findings indicate that obsidian nanolites contribute to quantifiable localized changes in the amorphous structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A user-friendly plug-and-play cyclic olefin copolymer-based microfluidic chip for room-temperature, fixed-target serial crystallography

Over the past two decades, serial X-ray crystallography has enabled the structure determination of a wide range of proteins. With the advent of X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs), ever-smaller crystals have yielded high-resolution diffraction and structure determination. A crucial need to continue advancement is the efficient delivery of fragile and micrometre-sized crystals to the X-ray beam intersection. This paper presents an improved design of an all-polymer microfluidic `chip' for room-temperature fixed-target serial crystallography that can be tailored to broadly meet the needs of users at either synchrotron or XFEL light sources. The chips are designed to be customized around different types of crystals and offer users a friendly, quick, convenient, ultra-low-cost and robust sample-delivery platform. Compared with the previous iteration of the chip [Gilbile et al. (2021), Lab Chip , 21 , 4831–4845], the new design eliminates cleanroom fabrication. It has a larger imaging area to volume, while maintaining crystal hydration stability for both in situ crystallization or direct crystal slurry loading. Crystals of two model proteins, lysozyme and thaumatin, were used to validate the effectiveness of the design at both synchrotron (lysozyme and thaumatin) and XFEL (lysozyme only) facilities, yielding complete data sets with resolutions of 1.42, 1.48 and 1.70 Å, respectively. Overall, the improved chip design, ease of fabrication and high modifiability create a powerful, all-around sample-delivery tool that structural biologists can quickly adopt, especially in cases of limited sample volume and small, fragile crystals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Timing of Crystallisation of the Lunar Magma Ocean Constrained by the Oldest Zircon

The presently favoured concept for the early evolution of the Moon involves consolidation of debris from a giant impact of a Mars sized body with Earth forming a primitive Moon with a thick global layer of melt referred to as the Lunar Magma Ocean1 . It is widely accepted that many significant features observed on the Moon today are the result of crystallisation of this magma ocean. However, controversy exists over the precise timing and duration of the crystallisation process. Resolution of this problem depends on the establishment of precise and robust key crystallisation time points. We report a 4417 6 Myr old zircon in lunar breccia sample 72215,195, which provides a precisely determined younger limit for the solidification of the Lunar Magma Ocean. A model based on these data, together with the age of the Moon forming giant impact, defines an exponential time frame for crystallisation and suggests formation of anorthositic crust after about 80-85% of the magma ocean was solidified. In combination with other zircon ages the 4417 +/- 6 Myr age also suggests that the very small (less than a few per cent) residual portion of the magma ocean continued to solidify during the following 300-500 m.y.

Nemchin, A.↗

Microphysical Properties of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cirrus

Pervasive cirrus clouds in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) play an important role in determining the composition of stratospheric air through dehydration of tropospheric air entering the stratosphere. This dehydration affects Earth's energy budget and climate, yet uncertainties remain regarding the microphysical processes that govern TTL cirrus. TTL cirrus were sampled with the NASA Global Hawk UAV for over 30 hr in the Western Pacific in 2014 during the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment. In situ measurements by a Fast Cloud Droplet Probe and Hawkeye probe (combination Fast Cloud Droplet Probe, Two‐Dimensional Stereo optical array probe, and Cloud Particle Imager) provided particle concentrations and sizing between 1‐ and 1,280‐μm diameter and high resolution images for habit identification. We present the variability in ice concentrations, size distributions, and habits as functions of temperature, altitude, and time since convective influence. Observed ice particles were predominantly small and quasi‐spheroidal in shape, with the percentage of quasi‐spheroids increasing with decreasing temperature. In comparison to the large fraction of the population consisting of quasi‐spheroids, faceted habits (columns, plates, rosettes, and budding rosettes) constituted a smaller percentage of the overall population and exhibited the opposite correlation with temperature. The trend of higher percentages of faceted crystals occurring at warmer temperatures may be due to diffusional growth or aggregation as particles descend through cloud, and/or the more rapid diffusional growth rate at warmer temperatures. Sampling was typically well away from deep convection, however, and very few aggregates were observed, so the trend of higher percentages of faceted habits is likely attributable to diffusional growth.

Woods, Sarah↗

The MVM imaging system and its spacecraft interactions

The present work describes the main considerations and steps taken in determining the functional design of the imaging system of the Mariner Venus/Mercury (MVM) spacecraft and gives examples of some of the interactions between the spacecraft and the imaging instrument during the design and testing phases. Stringent cost and scheduling constraints dictated the use of the previous Mariner 9 dual-camera TV system. The TV parameters laid the groundwork for the imaging definition. Based on the flyby distances from Venus and Mercury and the goal of surface resolution better than 500 meters per sample pair, calculation was performed on focal length, format size, planetary coverage, and data rates. Some problems encountered in initial mechanical operation and as a result of spacecraft drift during the mission are also discussed.

Vescelus, F. E.↗

Polycrystalline silicon on tungsten substrates

Thin films of electron-beam-vaporized silicon were deposited on fine-grained tungsten substrates under a pressure of about 1 x 10 to the -10th torr. Mass spectra from a quadrupole residual-gas analyzer were used to determine the partial pressure of 13 residual gases during each processing step. During separate silicon depositions, the atomically clean substrates were maintained at various temperatures between 400 and 780 C, and deposition rates were between 20 and 630 A min. Surface contamination and interdiffusion were monitored by in situ Auger electron spectrometry before and after cleaning, deposition, and annealing. Auger depth profiling, X-ray analysis, and SEM in the topographic and channeling modes were utilized to characterize the samples with respect to silicon-metal interface, interdiffusion, silicide formation, and grain size of silicon. The onset of silicide formation was found to occur at approximately 625 C. Above this temperature tungsten silicides were formed at a rate faster than the silicon deposition. Fine-grain silicon films were obtained at lower temperatures.

Bevolo, A. J.↗

Spectroscopy and reactivity of mineral analogs of the Martian soil

To answer the question of why life occurred on Earth but not on Mars requires a study of the geochemical and physical aspects of the Martian soil. Some of the best Mars analog mineral models of the soil have been prepared and justified according to known constraints of chemical composition, reflectance spectroscopy, and chemical reactivity. Detailed laboratory reflectance spectra in the ultraviolet, visible, and near infrared (.30 to 2.5 microns) and the infrared (2.5 to 25 microns) regions have been obtained for the pure candidate minerals and some analog mixtures and compared to Mars reflectance spectra. Modeling of the reflectance spectra from optical constraints determined for the analog minerals has begun and will be interpreted in terms of the effects of particle size variation, component mixing, and soil packing upon remotely sensed reflectance spectra. This has implications not only for Mars, but for other planets and planetoids. The ratio of Fe(II)/Fe(III) in the Martian soil analog materials on spectral reflectance in the visible range has begun, and the results will be evaluated according to conformity with the visible Mars reflectance spectrum. Some initial LR and GEX data have been collected for the mineral samples and their mixtures, which can be compared with the Viking data and interpreted in terms of the redox (Fe(II)/Fe(III) environment.

Banin, A.↗

Investigation of the effects of the macrophysical and microphysical properties of cirrus clouds on the retrieval of optical properties: Results for FIRE 2

Due to the prevalence and persistence of cirrus cloudiness across the globe, cirrus clouds are believed to have an important effect on the climate. Stephens et al., (1990) among others have shown that the important factor determining how cirrus clouds modulate the climate is the balance between the albedo and emittance effect of the cloud systems. This factor was shown to depend in part upon the effective sizes of the cirrus cloud particles. Since effective sizes of cirrus cloud microphysical distributions are used as a basis of parameterizations in climate models, it is crucial that the relationships between effective sizes and radiative properties be clearly established. In this preliminary study, the retrieval of cirrus cloud effective sizes are examined using a two dimensional radiative transfer model for a cirrus cloud case sampled during FIRE Cirrus 11. The purpose of this paper is to present preliminary results from the SHSG model demonstrating the sensitivity of the bispectral relationships of reflected radiances and thus the retrieval of effective sizes to phase function and dimensionality.

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.↗

Physics of Hard Spheres Experiment (PhaSE) or "Making Jello in Space"

The Physics of Hard Spheres Experiment (PHaSE) is a highly successful experiment that flew aboard two shuttle missions to study the transitions involved in the formation of jellolike colloidal crystals in a microgravity environment. A colloidal suspension, or colloid, consists of fine particles, often having complex interactions, suspended in a liquid. Paint, ink, and milk are examples of colloids found in everyday life. In low Earth orbit, the effective force of gravity is thousands of times less than at the Earth's surface. This provides researchers a way to conduct experiments that cannot be adequately performed in an Earth-gravity environment. In microgravity, colloidal particles freely interact without the complications of settling that occur in normal gravity on Earth. If the particle interactions within these colloidal suspensions could be predicted and accurately modeled, they could provide the key to understanding fundamental problems in condensed matter physics and could help make possible the development of wonderful new "designer" materials. Industries that make semiconductors, electro-optics, ceramics, and composites are just a few that may benefit from this knowledge. Atomic interactions determine the physical properties (e.g., weight, color, and hardness) of ordinary matter. PHaSE uses colloidal suspensions of microscopic solid plastic spheres to model the behavior of atomic interactions. When uniformly sized hard spheres suspended in a fluid reach a certain concentration (volume fraction), the particle-fluid mixture changes from a disordered fluid state, in which the spheres are randomly organized, to an ordered "crystalline" state, in which they are structured periodically. The thermal energy of the spheres causes them to form ordered arrays, analogous to crystals. Seven of the eight PHaSE samples ranged in volume fraction from 0.483 to 0.624 to cover the range of interest, while one sample, having a concentration of 0.019, was included for instrument calibration.

Ling, Jerri S.↗

Moving beyond the Solvent-Tip Approximation to Determine Site-Specific Variations of Interfacial Water Structure through 3D Force Microscopy

Although interfacial solution structure impacts environmental, biological, and technological phenomena, including colloidal stability, protein assembly, heterogeneous nucleation, and water desalination, its molecular details remain poorly understood. Here, we visualize the three-dimensional (3D) hydration structure at the boehmite(010)-water interface using fast force mapping (FFM). Using a self-consistent scheme to decouple long-range tip-sample interactions from short-range solvation forces, we obtain the solution structure with lattice resolution. The results are benchmarked against molecular dynamics simulations that explicitly include the effects of the tip with different levels of approximation and systematically account for tip size, chemistry, and confinement effects. We find four laterally structured water layers within 1 nm of the surface, with the highest water densities at sites adjacent to hydroxyl groups. The key features beyond the first two layers can only be predicted using a full-scale simulation of the boehmite-water-silica system. Our findings further reveal a complex relationship between site-specific chemistry, water density, and long-range particle interactions; and present important advances toward quantitative data interpretation in 3D FFM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Simulation of the earth's monthly average regional radiation balance derived from satellite measurements

Computer simulations of satellite-derived earth radiation parameters are used to determine the source and size of errors arising from measuring parameters over 1 month on a 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg longitude-latitude grid. November 1979 GOES data are used as a source of radiation parameter fields within each region. A mathematical model is given for the data-processing algorithms that are used to produce daily, monthly, and monthly hourly estimates of shortwave, longwave and net radiant exitance. Resulting retrieval errors are found to be due to insufficient knowledge of the temporal distribution of measurements. These errors, in combination with similar sampling errors produce biases in monthly net radiant exitance which are complex, regionally-dependent functions of the local time of the measurements. The 40 region standard errors of estimate for three satellites ranged from 2 to 3 W per sq. m., while single satellite errors ranged from 5 to 19 W per sq. m. A three-satellite system is therefore recommended to reduce biases.

Brooks, D. R.↗

A new study of muons in air showers by NBU air shower array

The North Bengal University (NBU) air shower array has been in operation in conjunction with two muon magnetic spectrographs. The array incorporates 21 particle density sampling detectors around the magnetic spectrographs covering an area of 900 sq m. The layout of the array is based on the arrangement of detectors in a square symmetry. The array set up on the ground level is around a 10 m high magnetic spectrograph housing. This magnetic spectrograph housing limits the zenith angular acceptance of the incident showers to a few degrees. Three hundred muons in the fitted showers of size range 10 to the 4th power to 10 to the 5th power particles have so far been scanned and the momenta determined in the momentum range 2 - 440 GeV/c. More than 1500 recorded showers are now in the process of scanning and fitting. A lateral distribution of muons of energy greater than 300 MeV in the shower size range 10 to the 5th power to 7 x 10 to the 5th power has been obtained.

Chaudhuri, N.↗

Aerosol Radiative Forcing in Asian Continental Outflow

Aerosols in elevated layers were sampled with FSSP-probes and wire impactors over the Pacific ocean aboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft. Analyses of particle size and morphology identifies two distinctly different aerosol types for cases when the mid-visible extinctions exceed 0.2/km. Smaller sizes (effective radii of 0.2 um) and moderate absorption (mid-visible single scattering albedo of.935) are typical for urban-industrial pollution. Larger sizes (effective radii of 0.7 um) and weak absorption (mid-visible single scattering albedo of 0.985) identify dust. This aerosol classification is in agreement with its origin as determined by airmass back trajectory analysis. Based on lidar vertical profiling, aerosol dominated by dust and urban-industrial pollution above 3km were assigned mid-visible optical depths of 0.50 and 0.27, respectively. Radiative transfer simulations, considering a 50% cloud-cover below the aerosol layers, suggest (on a daily tP C)C> basis) small reductions (-4W/m2) to the energy budget at the top of the atmosphere for both aerosol types. For c' 0 dust, more backscattering of sunlight (weaker solar absorption) is compensated by a stronger greenhouse effect due to larger sizes. Forced reductions to the energy budget at the surface are 12W/m2 for both aerosol types. In contrast, impacts on heating rates within the aerosol layers are quite different: While urban-industrial aerosol warms the layer (at +0.6K/day as solar heating dominates), dust cools (at -0.5K/day as infrared cooling dominates). Sensitivity tests show the dependence of the aerosol climatic impact on the optical depth, particle size, absorptivity, and altitude of the layers, as well as clouds and surface properties. Climatic cooling can be eliminated (1) for the urban-industrial aerosol if absorption is increased to yield a mid-visible single scattering albedo of 0.89, or if the ocean is replaced by a land surface; (2) for the dust aerosol if the effective radius is increased from 0.7 to 1.2 um. The removal of low-level clouds doubles the cooling at the top of the atmosphere to about -8W/m2.

Pueschel, R.↗

A Multi-Disciplinary Analysis Framework for the Design of Small Launch Vehicles

Between the years of 1995 and 2014 the number of small satellites (1-500 kg) went up from 20 to 180. [1] Out of the 180 launched in 2014 66% were Nano satellites (1-10 kg). [1] With this trend of smaller satellites, one would expect a rise in number of small launch vehicles (SLVs are defined by capability to carry 1-100 kg to orbit), but this has not happened: [3] only 8% of all small satellites are launched on SLVs and the others become secondary payloads on regular launch vehicles. [1] This results in small satellites being placed into either suboptimal orbits or waiting for launch schedules to align with bigger launches, resulting in long waiting times. Dedicated SLVs could improve the responsiveness of small satellite launches, but SLV design is complicated by the large architecture space needed to be explored in order to find efficient and affordable designs. The SLV architecture trade space contains many discrete options, e.g. solid vs. liquid fuels, air launch vs. ground launch, number of stages, etc. [2][3] Performing detailed analysis for all the options at once would be prohibitive. Thus, a sizing environment/framework that is capable of providing necessary information for conceptual-level trade studies and can rapidly explore the vast SLV architecture space is necessary. The framework, illustrated in Figure 1, consists of four disciplines central to the sizing and synthesis of launch vehicles: propulsion, aerodynamics, structures, and trajectory. For the aerodynamics and trajectory disciplines, Missile DATCOM and POST2 are used, respectively. The propulsion and structures disciplines are represented in the framework with tools developed at ASDL Georgia Tech. For propulsion, the Solid Motor Analysis Code (SMAC) is a physics-based conceptual design tool for solid rocket motors. SMAC is capable of geometric burn simulation, ballistic analysis, and prediction of thrust performance. [4] For structures, Launch Vehicle Structural Analysis (LVSA) tool is a physics-based tool that focuses on structural dynamic analysis with sizing capability. These tools are integrated into the framework illustrated in Figure 1 with the corresponding connections described in Table 1. The process flow is as follows: first, SMAC sizes insulation and calculates maximum operating pressures for each vehicle stage. The MEOP and insulation thickness values from SMAC are fed to LVSA which then utilizes this information to size the motor casing. This creates a feedback loop between LVSA and SMAC that converges on the radius available for fuel, casing, and insulation thickness. Once the stage sizing is converged on SMAC creates an engine deck that is passed to POST2. Next, the data from SMAC and LVSA goes into Missile DATCOM which generates an aerodynamics database for POST2. Finally, POST2 performs a targeting optimization while maximizing the payload mass to orbit. Within the framework, POST2 is automated in order to be robust to a wide variety of possible designs by performing a Monte Carlo simulation over the initialization vector of the POST2 optimization variables. To demonstrate the capability of this framework, a sample problem of exploring the design space of an SLV capable of placing satellites into a low Earth orbit (inclination=47 deg, 196.5 by 211.3 nm) is used. This sample problem is a ground-launched SLV consisting of four in-line SRM stages. The multidisciplinary design analysis (MDA) environment is utilized to explore a design space consisting of 22 continuous and 12 discrete variables, shown by Table 1 by blocks 1,2,3. Running a full factorial design of experiments (DOE) would have been prohibitively expensive even with this reduced design space, thus a space filling design with 3,502 and then additional expansion of 2,602 cases was used. The first DOE consisted of 3,502 cases, and all of the variables were varied. These input variables are listed in blocks 1, 2, and 3 in Table 1. Most of the variables are propulsion related with stage lengths determining the delta-V split of the SLV. The expansion consisted of 2,602 cases, and the continuous variables were set to be equal to the most promising designs from the sizing of first DOE. For each set of continuous variables, the discrete variables (grain type, star points, and propellant) were to varied. The results of the DOE can be seen in Figure 2; each of the points in this plot represents a closed launch vehicle that reaches the targeted orbit. For each of the cases, there is information on flown trajectory, structural, and propulsion properties of the SLV. For example, Figure 3 shows changes in altitude and velocity with time for a particular case. The right side of Figure 3 clearly shows the coasting (slow decrease) and burning phases (sharp increase) of the SLV mission. LV mass is positively correlated with the optimized payload mass to orbit because heavier LVs carry more fuel and thus have more stored chemical energy. Furthermore, for any given payload mass to orbit, the most efficient design would result in the smallest LV. The results as visualized in Figure 2 shows this tradeoff, and the Pareto frontier of the efficient designs can be seen along the dotted line. Figure 2 can be divided into regions with the lowest mass vehicles corresponding to the minimum bound on radius, and the highest mass vehicles corresponding to the maximum bound on radius. Within a mass region, the discrete variables, such as propellant type and propellant grain arrangement, have the most effect on payload mass. This paper presents an MDA framework that can perform an automated physics-based sizing of SLV designs and a corresponding methodology to utilize the MDA to explore the design space of SLVs. The proposed methodology was applied to a perform a design space exploration for a four stage SLV. The outputs show the expected pareto frontier forming and provide detailed information about the SLV performance and staging. Using the produced data, it will be possible to select a set of pareto optimal designs that can then be further explored in subsequent design cycles. This demonstration shows that automated design space exploration should be used in the early phase design of future SLV concepts.

Nikita S Birbasov↗