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At least 775 records · Page 43
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

Long-term variation of the solar diurnal anisotropy of galactic cosmic rays observed with the Nagoya multi-directional muon detector

We analyze the three-dimensional anisotropy of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensities observed independently with a muon detector at Nagoya in Japan and neutron monitors over four solar activity cycles. We clearly see the phase of the free-space diurnal anisotropy shifting toward earlier hours around solar activity minima in A > 0 epochs, due to the reduced anisotropy component parallel to the mean magnetic field. This component is consistent with a rigidity-independent spectrum, while the perpendicular anisotropy component increases with GCR rigidity. We suggest that this harder spectrum of the perpendicular component is due to contribution from the drift streaming. We find that the bi-directional latitudinal density gradient is positive in the A > 0 epoch, while it is negative in the A < 0 epoch, in agreement with the drift model prediction. The radial density gradient of GCRs, on the other hand, varies with a ∼11 yr cycle with maxima (minima) in solar maximum (minimum) periods, but we find no significant difference between the radial gradients in the A > 0 and A < 0 epochs. The corresponding parallel mean free path is larger in A < 0 than in A > 0. We also find, however, that the parallel mean free path (radial gradient) appears to persistently increase (decrease) in the last three cycles of weakening solar activity. We suggest that simple differences between these parameters in A > 0 and A < 0 epochs are seriously biased by these long-term trends.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2009

Strong Solar Control of Infrared Aurora on Jupiter: Correlation Since the Last Solar Maximum

Polar aurorae in Jupiter's atmosphere radiate throughout the electromagnetic spectrum from X ray through mid-infrared (mid-IR, 5 - 20 micron wavelength). Voyager IRIS data and ground-based spectroscopic measurements of Jupiter's northern mid-IR aurora, acquired since 1982, reveal a correlation between auroral brightness and solar activity that has not been observed in Jovian aurora at other wavelengths. Over nearly three solar cycles, Jupiter auroral ethane emission brightness and solar 10.7 cm radio flux and sunspot number are positively correlated with high confidence. Ethane line emission intensity varies over tenfold between low and high solar activity periods. Detailed measurements have been made using the GSFC HIPWAC spectrometer at the NASA IRTF since the last solar maximum, following the mid-IR emission through the declining phase toward solar minimum. An even more convincing correlation with solar activity is evident in these data. Current analyses of these results will be described, including planned measurements on polar ethane line emission scheduled through the rise of the next solar maximum beginning in 2009, with a steep gradient to a maximum in 2012. This work is relevant to the Juno mission and to the development of the Europa Jupiter System Mission. Results of observations at the Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) operated by the University of Hawaii under Cooperative Agreement no. NCC5-538 with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Science Mission Directorate, Planetary Astronomy Program. This work was supported by the NASA Planetary Astronomy Program.

Kostiuk, T.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Mg IX emission lines in an active region spectrum obtained with the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS)

Theoretical electron-temperature-sensitive Mg IX emission line ratios are presented for R(sub 1) = I(443.96 A)/I(368.06 A), R(sub 2) = I(439.17 A)/I(368.06 A), R(sub 3) = I(443.37 A)/I(368.06 A), R(sub 4) = I(441.22 A)/I(368.06 A), and R(sub 5) = I(448.28 A)/I(368.06 A). A comparison of these with observational data for a solar active region, obtained during a rocket flight by the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS), reveals excellent agreement between theory and observation for R(sub 1) through R(sub 4), with discrepancies that average only 9%. This provides experimental support for the accuracy of the atomic data adopted in the line ratio calculations, and also resolves discrepancies found previously when the theoretical results were compared with solar data from the S082A instrument on board Skylab. However in the case of R(sub 5), the theoretical and observed ratios differ by almost a factor of 2. This may be due to the measured intensity of the 448.28 A line being seriously affected by instrumental effects, as it lies very close to the long wavelength edge of the SERTS spectral coverage (235.46-448.76 A).

Keenan, F. P.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A comparison of theoretical CIV emission line strengths with active region observations obtained with the solar EUV rocket telescope and spectrograph (SERTS)

Theoretical line ratios involving 2s 2S - 3p 2P, 2p 2p - 3s 2S, and 2p 2S - 3d 2D transitions in C IV between 312 and 420 A are presented. A comparison of these with solar active region observational data obtained during a rocket flight by the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS) reveals good agreement between theory and experiment, with discrepancies that average only 22 percent. This provides experimental support for the accuracy of the atomic data adopted in the line ratio calculations, and also resolves discrepancies found previously when the theoretical results were compared with solar data from the S082A instrument on board Skylab. The potential usefulness of the C IV line ratios as electron temperature diagnostics for the solar transition region is briefly discussed.

Keenan, F. P.↗
DOE OSTI2011

ACTIVITY-BRIGHTNESS CORRELATIONS FOR THE SUN AND SUN-LIKE STARS

We analyze the effect of solar features on the variability of the solar irradiance in three different spectral ranges. Our study is based on two solar-cycles' worth of full-disk photometric images from the San Fernando Observatory, obtained with red, blue, and Ca II K-line filters. For each image we measure the photometric sum, {Sigma}, which is the relative contribution of solar features to the disk-integrated intensity of the image. The photometric sums in the red and blue continuum, {Sigma}{sub r} and {Sigma}{sub b}, exhibit similar temporal patterns: they are negatively correlated with solar activity, with strong short-term variability, and weak solar-cycle variability. However, the Ca II K-line photometric sum, {Sigma}{sub K}, is positively correlated with solar activity and has strong variations on solar-cycle timescales. We show that we can model the variability of the Sun's bolometric flux as a linear combination of {Sigma}{sub r} and {Sigma}{sub K}. We infer that, over solar-cycle timescales, the variability of the Sun's bolometric irradiance is directly correlated with spectral line variability, but inversely correlated with continuum variability. Our blue and red continuum filters are quite similar to the Stroemgren b and y filters used to measure stellar photometric variability. We conclude that active stars whose visible continuum brightness varies inversely with activity, as measured by the Ca HK index, are displaying a pattern that is similar to that of the Sun, i.e., radiative variability in the visible continuum that is spot-dominated.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2011

What Preparatory Science is Needed in Coronal Structure and Activity

Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus will launch in six short years! Before then, we need to accomplish a great deal of science in order to be able to maximize the return of these missions. Preparatory science is especially important for exploratory missions such as SO and SPP, because they truly will be going "where no mission has gone before". Such preparatory science may include all types of research: theory, modeling, data exploitation, and supporting observations. This meeting provides an opportunity for the community to define and begin this critical preparatory work. In this talk I will provide an overview of our state of knowledge in coronal structure and activity, describe what I believe are the most promising opportunities for advances by SO and SPP, and lead a discussion on what programs need to be implemented now in order to achieve these science advances by the time SO and SPP launch.

Antiochos, S. K.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Predictions of Solar Cycle 24: How are We Doing?

Predictions of solar activity are an essential part of our Space Weather forecast capability. Users are requiring usable predictions of an upcoming solar cycle to be delivered several years before solar minimum. A set of predictions of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 accumulated in 2008 ranged from zero to unprecedented levels of solar activity. The predictions formed an almost normal distribution, centered on the average amplitude of all preceding solar cycles. The average of the current compilation of 105 predictions of the annual-average sunspot number is 106 +/- 31, slightly lower than earlier compilations but still with a wide distribution. Solar Cycle 24 is on track to have a below-average amplitude, peaking at an annual sunspot number of about 80. Our need for solar activity predictions and our desire for those predictions to be made ever earlier in the preceding solar cycle will be discussed. Solar Cycle 24 has been a below-average sunspot cycle. There were peaks in the daily and monthly averaged sunspot number in the Northern Hemisphere in 2011 and in the Southern Hemisphere in 2014. With the rapid increase in solar data and capability of numerical models of the solar convection zone we are developing the ability to forecast the level of the next sunspot cycle. But predictions based only on the statistics of the sunspot number are not adequate for predicting the next solar maximum. I will describe how we did in predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 and describe how solar polar field predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

Pesnell, William D.↗
DOE OSTI2016

COMPARISON OF CHAOTIC AND FRACTAL PROPERTIES OF POLAR FACULAE WITH SUNSPOT ACTIVITY

The solar magnetic activity is governed by a complex dynamo mechanism and exhibits a nonlinear dissipation behavior in nature. The chaotic and fractal properties of solar time series are of great importance to understanding the solar dynamo actions, especially with regard to the nonlinear dynamo theories. In the present work, several nonlinear analysis approaches are proposed to investigate the nonlinear dynamical behavior of the polar faculae and sunspot activity for the time interval from 1951 August to 1998 December. The following prominent results are found: (1) both the high- and the low-latitude solar activity are governed by a three-dimensional chaotic attractor, and the chaotic behavior of polar faculae is the most complex, followed by that of the sunspot areas, and then the sunspot numbers; (2) both the high- and low-latitude solar activity exhibit a high degree of persistent behavior, and their fractal nature is due to such long-range correlation; (3) the solar magnetic activity cycle is predictable in nature, but the high-accuracy prediction should only be done for short- to mid-term due to its intrinsically dynamical complexity. With the help of the Babcock–Leighton dynamo model, we suggest that the nonlinear coupling of the polar magnetic fields with strong active-region fields exhibits a complex manner, causing the statistical similarities and differences between the polar faculae and the sunspot-related indicators.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Detecting and disentangling nonlinear structure from solar flux time series

Interest in solar activity has grown in the past two decades for many reasons. Most importantly for flight dynamics, solar activity changes the atmospheric density, which has important implications for spacecraft trajectory and lifetime prediction. Building upon the previously developed Rayleigh-Benard nonlinear dynamic solar model, which exhibits many dynamic behaviors observed in the Sun, this work introduces new chaotic solar forecasting techniques. Our attempt to use recently developed nonlinear chaotic techniques to model and forecast solar activity has uncovered highly entangled dynamics. Numerical techniques for decoupling additive and multiplicative white noise from deterministic dynamics and examines falloff of the power spectra at high frequencies as a possible means of distinguishing deterministic chaos from noise than spectrally white or colored are presented. The power spectral techniques presented are less cumbersome than current methods for identifying deterministic chaos, which require more computationally intensive calculations, such as those involving Lyapunov exponents and attractor dimension.

Ashrafi, S.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Outline of the Solar System: Activities for elementary students

An introduction to the solar system for the elementary school student is given. The introduction contains historical background, facts, and pertinent symbols concerning the sun, the nine major planets and their moons, and information about comets and asteroids. Aids to teaching are given, including a solar system crossword puzzle with answers.

Hartsfield, J.↗
DOE OSTI2012

EVOLUTION OF THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN HELIUM ABUNDANCE, MINOR ION CHARGE STATE, AND SOLAR WIND SPEED OVER THE SOLAR CYCLE

The changing relationships between solar wind speed, helium abundance, and minor ion charge state are examined over solar cycle 23. Observations of the abundance of helium relative to hydrogen (A{sub He} {identical_to} 100 Multiplication-Sign n{sub He}/n{sub H}) by the Wind spacecraft are used to examine the dependence of A{sub He} on solar wind speed and solar activity between 1994 and 2010. This work updates an earlier study of A{sub He} from 1994 to 2004 to include the recent extreme solar minimum and broadly confirms our previous result that A{sub He} in slow wind is strongly correlated with sunspot number, reaching its lowest values in each solar minima. During the last minimum, as sunspot numbers reached their lowest levels in recent history, A{sub He} continued to decrease, falling to half the levels observed in slow wind during the previous minimum and, for the first time observed, decreasing even in the fastest solar wind. We have also extended our previous analysis by adding measurements of the mean carbon and oxygen charge states observed with the Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft since 1998. We find that as solar activity decreased, the mean charge states of oxygen and carbon for solar wind of a given speed also fell, implying that the wind was formed in cooler regions in the corona during the recent solar minimum. The physical processes in the coronal responsible for establishing the mean charge state and speed of the solar wind have evolved with solar activity and time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1999

Jovian Northern Ethane Aurora and the Solar Cycle

Thermal infrared auroral spectra from Jupiter's North polar region have been collected from 1979 to 1998 in a continuing study of long-term variability in the northern thermal IR aurora, using C2H6 emission lines near 12 microns as a probe. Data from Voyager I and 2 IRIS measurements and ground based spectral measurements were analyzed using the same model atmosphere to provide a consistent relative comparison. A retrieved equivalent mole fraction was used to compare the observed integrated emission. Short term (days), medium term (months) and long term (years) variability in the ethane emission was observed. The variability Of C2H6 emission intensities was compared to Jupiter's seasonal cycle and the solar activity cycle. A positive correlation appears to exist, with significantly greater emission and short term variability during solar maxima. Observations on 60 N latitude during increased solar activity in 1979, 1989, and most recently in 1998 show up to 5 times brighter integrated line emission of C2H6 near the north polar "hot spot" (150-210 latitude) than from the north quiescent region. Significantly lower enhancement was observed during periods of lower solar activity in 1982, 1983, 1993, and 1995. Possible sources and mechanisms for the enhancement and variability will be discussed.

Kostiuk,T.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Hot oxygen geocorona as inferred from neutral exospheric models and mass spectrometer measurements

Summer hot oxygen densities of 10,000-30,000 per cubic cm at 1100 km (or 100,000-300,000 at 550 km) for low to moderate solar activities are inferred from differences between satellite drag and mass-spectrometer-based models. At high solar activities, densities at 925 km from 100,000-400,000 (or 5 x 10 to the 5th to 2 x 10 to the 6th at 550 km) are inferred from a limited number of Dynamics Explorer mass spectrometer measurements. The densities are of the same order as those reported previously from ground-based optical measurements. It is pointed out that a detailed theoretical calculation of the hot oxygen distribution consistent with the cool populations in mass-spectrometer-based models would provide the basis for a more complete interpretation of mass spectrometer data and of high-altitude differences between drag-based and mass-spectrometer-based models. It is concluded that hot oxygen could be providing the major contribution to satellite drag in the summer lower exosphere during low solar activity.

Hedin, A. E.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Ground-based observations of equatorial thermosphere dynamics with a Fabry-Perot interferometer

Fabry-Perot determinations of thermospheric temperatures from 630.0 nm nightglow line width measurements were carried out for the period April to August, 1983. The nightly variation of the thermospheric temperature measured on 53 nights is compared with MSIS model predictions and found to agree occasionally with the model but, on the average, to exceed model predictions by approximately 180 K. The largest differences, 400 to 500 K occur during strongly increasing geomagnetic activity. Significant differences occur both during high geomagnetic/low solar activity and during low geomagnetic/high solar activity.

Meriwether, J. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1976

H2O(+) ions in comets: Comet Kohoutek (1973f) and comet Bradfield (1974b)

The image tube Cassegrain slit spectra of comet Kohoutek and Bradfield calibrated and reduced to relative intensities are discussed. Monochromatic changes in the surface brightness for various neutral and ionized molecules are determined. The intensities of C2 and CN decreased approximately four times faster than the intensity change for the H2O(+) features. It is shown that the excitation mechanism for the observed H2O(+) bands is by fluorescent scattering of the incident solar radiation. The effects of solar activity on the photoionization rate of H2O in a comet are discussed. Observations of another bright comet at the time of maximum solar activity are needed to determine changes in band intensities of comet tail ions due to solar activity.

Wehinger, P.↗
NASA NTRS2018

An Early Prediction of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25

A “Solar Dynamo” (SODA) Index prediction of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 is described. The SODA Index combines values of the solar polar magnetic field and the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm to create a precursor of future solar activity. The result is an envelope of solar activity that minimizes the 11-year period of the sunspot cycle. We show that the variation in time of the SODA Index is similar to several wavelet transforms of the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm. Polar field predictions for Solar Cycles 21 – 24 are used to show the success of the polar field precursor in previous sunspot cycles. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle’s smoothed peak activity will be about 140 ± 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a Version 2 sunspot number of 135 ± 25. This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 2025.2 ± 1.5 year. Because the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve as the upcoming solar minimum draws closer.

Solar Cycle Predictions↗
DOE OSTI2011

TIME DISTRIBUTIONS OF LARGE AND SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS OVER FOUR SOLAR CYCLES

Here we analyze solar activity by focusing on time variations of the number of sunspot groups (SGs) as a function of their modified Zurich class. We analyzed data for solar cycles 20-23 by using Rome (cycles 20 and 21) and Learmonth Solar Observatory (cycles 22 and 23) SG numbers. All SGs recorded during these time intervals were separated into two groups. The first group includes small SGs (A, B, C, H, and J classes by Zurich classification), and the second group consists of large SGs (D, E, F, and G classes). We then calculated small and large SG numbers from their daily mean numbers as observed on the solar disk during a given month. We report that the time variations of small and large SG numbers are asymmetric except for solar cycle 22. In general, large SG numbers appear to reach their maximum in the middle of the solar cycle (phases 0.45-0.5), while the international sunspot numbers and the small SG numbers generally peak much earlier (solar cycle phases 0.29-0.35). Moreover, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux, the facular area, and the maximum coronal mass ejection speed show better agreement with the large SG numbers than they do with the small SG numbers. Our results suggest that the large SG numbers are more likely to shed light on solar activity and its geophysical implications. Our findings may also influence our understanding of long-term variations of the total solar irradiance, which is thought to be an important factor in the Sun-Earth climate relationship.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS2001

Correlation of Upper-Atmospheric Be-7 With Solar Energetic Particle Events

Surprisingly large concentrations of radioactive Be-7 have been found in the upper atmosphere at levels of one to three orders of magnitude greater than observed in the stratosphere. This phenomenon was originally observed on the LDEF satellite which was recovered in January 1990 following a period of extremely high solar activity in the fall of 1989. We report on follow-up measurements on the Russian COSMOS and RESURS F1 spacecraft during the period of 1996 to 1999 which was a period of minimal to moderate solar activity. The Be-7 concentrations observed on these flights were down substantially from the LDEF observations but were still one to two orders of magnitude higher than stratospheric levels. A significant correlation is observed between the Be-7 activity and the combined fluence of solar energetic protons (SEP) and galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) protons. The Be-7 activity is not correlated with overall solar activity as represented by the solar x-ray flux. We discuss possible mechanisms for the solar proton correlation. However, it is likely that the Be-7 is ionized and it is unknown how this will affect the calculations. There were several large solar flares in the fall of 1989 that produced extraordinarily intense solar particle events at the Earth and record geophysical disturbances. These may have acted to increase production of Be-7 from spallation in the stratosphere and also to enhance transport to higher altitudes from the effects of heating and expansion of the upper atmosphere. Be-7 in the upper atmosphere may also have been produced directly at the Sun. Be-7 and Li-7 are produced in solar flares when accelerated alpha-particles fuse with He-4 in the solar atmosphere. Under optimistic assumptions for Sun to Earth transport and subsequent insertion into low Earth orbit, a Be-7 density of about 10(exp -7) atom/cubic cm at 310 km is estimated.

Phillips, G. W.↗