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At least 775 records · Page 43

Sparse distributed memory and related models

Described here is sparse distributed memory (SDM) as a neural-net associative memory. It is characterized by two weight matrices and by a large internal dimension - the number of hidden units is much larger than the number of input or output units. The first matrix, A, is fixed and possibly random, and the second matrix, C, is modifiable. The SDM is compared and contrasted to (1) computer memory, (2) correlation-matrix memory, (3) feet-forward artificial neural network, (4) cortex of the cerebellum, (5) Marr and Albus models of the cerebellum, and (6) Albus' cerebellar model arithmetic computer (CMAC). Several variations of the basic SDM design are discussed: the selected-coordinate and hyperplane designs of Jaeckel, the pseudorandom associative neural memory of Hassoun, and SDM with real-valued input variables by Prager and Fallside. SDM research conducted mainly at the Research Institute for Advanced Computer Science (RIACS) in 1986-1991 is highlighted.

Kanerva, Pentti↗

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Report 30: Computer-Mediated Communication (CMC) and the communication of technical information in aerospace

This research used survey research to examine the use of communication media in general and electronic media specifically in the U.S. aerospace industry. The survey population included 1,006 randomly selected U.S. aerospace engineers and scientists who belong to the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA). Survey data were compared with qualitative information obtained from 32 AIAA members in telephone and face-to-face conversations. The Information Processing (IP) model developed by Tushman and Nadler and Daft and Lengel constituted the study's theoretical basis. This research analyzed responses regarding communication methods of U.S. aerospace engineers and scientists who create use and disseminate aerospace knowledge and explored selected contextual environmental variables related to media use and effective performance. The results indicate that uncertainty is significantly reduced in environments when levels of analyzability are high. When uncertainty is high there is significantly more use of electronic media. However no relation was found between overall effectiveness and media use in environments stratified by levels by analyzability or equivocality. The results indicate modest support for the influences of uncertainty and analyzability on electronic media use. Although most respondents reported that electronic networks are important for their work the data suggest that there are sharply disparate levels of use.

Murphy, Daniel J.↗

The effect of dissipative inhomogeneous medium on the statistics of the wave intensity

One of the main theoretical points in the theory of wave propagation in random medium is the derivation of closed form equations to describe the statistics of the propagating waves. In particular, in one dimensional problems, the closed form representation of the multiple scattering effects is important since it contributes in understanding such problems like wave localization, backscattering enhancement, and intensity fluctuations. In this the propagation of plane waves in a layer of one-dimensional dissipative random medium is considered. The medium is modeled by a complex permittivity whose real part is a constant representing the absorption. The one dimensional problem is mathematically equivalent to the analysis of a transmission line with randomly perturbed distributed parameters and a single mode lossy waveguide and the results can be used to study the propagation of radio waves through atmosphere and the remote sensing of geophysical media. It is assumed the scattering medium consists of an ensemble of one-dimensional point scatterers randomly positioned in a layer of thickness L with diffuse boundaries. A Poisson impulse process with density lambda is used to model the position of scatterers in the medium. By employing the Markov properties of this process an exact closed form equation of Kolmogorov-Feller type was obtained for the probability density of the reflection coefficient. This equation was solved by combining two limiting cases: (1) when the density of scatterers is small; and (2) when the medium is weakly dissipative. A two variable perturbation method for small lambda was used to obtain solutions valid for thick layers. These solutions are then asymptotically evaluated for small dissipation. To show the effect of dissipation, the mean and fluctuations of the reflected power are obtained. The results were compared with a lossy homogeneous medium and with a lossless inhomogeneous medium and the regions where the effect of absorption is not essential were discussed.

Saatchi, Sasan S.↗

Identification of Cardiometabolic Vulnerabilities Caused by Effects of Synergistic Stressors that are Commonly Encountered During Space Missions

Microgravity is a physiologically challenging state even when at rest. Astronauts experience additional physical and mental stresses, such as prolonged exertion, sleep loss and circadian misalignment, that could impact cardiovascular function. The main goals of this four year NASA project are to characterize the independent and synergistic effects on cardiovascular and immune function of: (1) circadian misalignment; (2) sleep loss; and (3) varied physical and mental stressors, mimicking some of the synergistic stressors experienced by astronauts. Sixteen healthy volunteers, aged 35-55 years, will be studied with standardized behavioral stressors occurring across all circadian phases, both with and without accruing sleep loss, achieved via two 11-day "forced desynchrony" protocols performed in each subject (randomized, within-subject design), where wake periods are advanced 4-h each "day" (i.e. recurring 20-h "days"). One protocol permits 8.33 h sleep opportunity per 20-h "day" (=10 h sleep per 24-h), and the other permits 5 h sleep per 20-h "day" (=6 h sleep per 24-h; matching the reported sleep duration of astronauts). In both protocols, subjects will perform a standardized stress battery including a cognitively challenging task; bicycle exercise, and passive 60deg head up tilt. Outcome variables include blood pressure, heart rate, arrhythmia frequency, cardiac vagal tone (from heart rate variability), sympathetic activity (catecholamines), and endothelial function. Additional measures of cardiac function (echocardiography), responses to a passive 80deg head up tilt, maximal oxygen uptake, and immune function will be assessed at the beginning and at the end of each protocol (i.e., without and with sleep loss, and before and after circadian misalignment). We hope to identify the relative impact on cardiovascular risk markers of varied behavioural stressors while subjects experience circadian misalignment and sleep loss, mimicking some of the synergistic stressors experienced by astronauts. Supported by NASANNX1 OAR 1 OG.

Ruger, M.↗

Human performance and physiological function during a 24-hr exposure to 1% bromotrifluoromethane (Halon 1301)

Performance and physiological measurements were obtained from four pairs of men exposed for 24 hr to 1% (10,000 ppm) Halon 1301 (bromotrifluoromethane, CBrF3) and to air with order counterbalanced using a double-blind protocol. Cognitive and motor performance was assessed before, during, and after the exposures using seven scales of the Automated Portable Testing System, which produced 13 measures of performance. Halon inhalation induced decrements in 2 of the 13 measures, but actual and estimated magnitudes of the decrements were no greater than 5% of baseline values. Physiological data were obtained before, during, and after the exposures from clinical chemistry analyses of blood and urine samples, pulmonary function tests, and monitoring of vital signs. Significant change during Halon inhalation was observed for 6 of the 52 variables assessed; however, all physiological values remained within clinically acceptable limits. No cardiovascular effects were noted. This study demonstrated that exposure to 1% Halon 1301 for 24 hr can produce minor disturbance of central nervous system function as assessed by cognitive tasks.

Randomized Controlled Trial↗

Thoughts Without Content are Empty, Intuitions Without Concepts are Blind - Determinism and Contingency Revisited

Was the emergence of life a predictable outcome of chemical evolution on earth? Could evolution produce life very different from ours? These are one of the oldest questions in the field of the origin of life that not only have broad philosophical implications but also impact how we approach the problem from the methodological standpoint. Framing the issue in terms of the dichotomy between contingency and determinism is not a fortunate because these two terms in their conventional meaning are neither mutually exclusive nor jointly exhaustive. Determinism, represented in natural sciences by Newtonian physics, relies on the assumption that every event is causally determined by a chain of previous events. In the context of the origin of life it means that once the initial conditions on the early earth have been specified further evolution follows inevitably. Considering uncertainties about conditions on the prebiotic earth, many plausible sets of initial conditions can be defined, each followed by a separate deterministic trajectory. This conventional understanding of determinism does not admit contingency. Further, it has no implications for evaluating how many sets of initial conditions lead to the emergence of life. It appears that a better framing of the problem is as follows: given plausible sets of initial conditions on the early earth how probable and broadly spread are evolutionary trajectories that lead to life? Instead of undertaking an impossible task of specifying microscopic initial conditions for all components of the system one uses a reduced representation of this system and specify only a small set of essential macroscopic parameters, values (or ranges of values) of which can be identified, inferred or estimated from experiment, theory or historical record. The following evolutionary trajectories are still governed by laws of physics and chemistry but become probabilistic and "contingency" is admitted as variations in other variables in the system. A similar reasoning is common in other fields of science, for example in statistical mechanics. Some trajectories lead to life, perhaps in different forms, whereas others do not. Of our true interest is the ratio of these two outcomes. The issue of determinism does not directly enter the picture. The debate about the likelihood of the emergence of life is quite old. One view holds that the origin of life is an event governed by chance, and the result of so many random events (contingencies) is unpredictable. This view was eloquently expressed by Monod. In his book "Chance or Necessity" he argued that life was a product of "nature's roulette." In an alternative view, expressed in particular by deDuve and Morowitz, the origin of life is considered a highly probable or even inevitable event (although its details need not be determined in every respect). Only in this sense the origin of life can be considered a "deterministic event".

Pohorille, Andrew↗

Safety Performance of Airborne Separation: Preliminary Baseline Testing

The Safety Performance of Airborne Separation (SPAS) study is a suite of Monte Carlo simulation experiments designed to analyze and quantify safety behavior of airborne separation. This paper presents results of preliminary baseline testing. The preliminary baseline scenario is designed to be very challenging, consisting of randomized routes in generic high-density airspace in which all aircraft are constrained to the same flight level. Sustained traffic density is varied from approximately 3 to 15 aircraft per 10,000 square miles, approximating up to about 5 times today s traffic density in a typical sector. Research at high traffic densities and at multiple flight levels are planned within the next two years. Basic safety metrics for aircraft separation are collected and analyzed. During the progression of experiments, various errors, uncertainties, delays, and other variables potentially impacting system safety will be incrementally introduced to analyze the effect on safety of the individual factors as well as their interaction and collective effect. In this paper we report the results of the first experiment that addresses the preliminary baseline condition tested over a range of traffic densities. Early results at five times the typical traffic density in today s NAS indicate that, under the assumptions of this study, airborne separation can be safely performed. In addition, we report on initial observations from an exploration of four additional factors tested at a single traffic density: broadcast surveillance signal interference, extent of intent sharing, pilot delay, and wind prediction error.

Consiglio, Maria C.↗

Postural Stability When Leaning from Perceived Upright

The transition between quiet stance and gait requires the volitional movement of one?s center of mass (COM) toward a limit of stability (LOS). The goal of this study was to measure the effect of leaning from perceived upright on postural stability when voluntarily maintaining fixed stance positions and during perturbations of the support surface. The COM was derived from force plate data in 12 healthy subjects while standing with feet positioned so that lateral base of support was equal to foot length. For all conditions, arms were folded and subjects were instructed to lean without bending at the hips or lifting their feet. The LOS was determined during maximal voluntary leans with eyes open and closed. The COM was then displayed on a monitor located in front of the subject. Subjects were visually guided to lean toward a target position, maintain this position for 10s, return to upright, and then repeat the same targeted lean maneuver with eyes closed. Targets were randomly presented at 2? in 8 directions and between 2-6? in these same directions according to the asymmetric LOS. Subjects were then verbally guided to lean between 2? back and 4? forward prior to a perturbation of the support surface in either a forward or backward direction. The average LOS was 5.8? forward, 2.9? back, and 4.8? in left/right directions, with no significant difference between eyes open and closed. Center of pressure (COP) velocity increased as subjects maintained fixed stance positions farther from upright, with increased variability during eyes closed conditions. The time to stability and COP path length increased as subjects leaned opposite to the direction of the support surface perturbations. We conclude that postural stability is compromised as subjects lean away from perceived upright, except for perturbations that induce sway in the direction opposite the lean. The asymmetric LOS relative to perceived upright favors postural stability for COM movements in the forward direction.

Vanya, Robert D.↗

Probabilistic material strength degradation model for Inconel 718 components subjected to high temperature, high-cycle and low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue effects

This report presents the results of both the fifth and sixth year effort of a research program conducted for NASA-LeRC by The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). The research included on-going development of methodology for a probabilistic material strength degradation model. The probabilistic model, in the form of a postulated randomized multifactor equation, provides for quantification of uncertainty in the lifetime material strength of aerospace propulsion system components subjected to a number of diverse random effects. This model is embodied in the computer program entitled PROMISS, which can include up to eighteen different effects. Presently, the model includes five effects that typically reduce lifetime strength: high temperature, high-cycle mechanical fatigue, low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue. Statistical analysis was conducted on experimental Inconel 718 data obtained from the open literature. This analysis provided regression parameters for use as the model's empirical material constants, thus calibrating the model specifically for Inconel 718. Model calibration was carried out for five variables, namely, high temperature, high-cycle and low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue. Methodology to estimate standard deviations of these material constants for input into the probabilistic material strength model was developed. Using an updated version of PROMISS, entitled PROMISS93, a sensitivity study for the combined effects of high-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue was performed. Then using the current version of PROMISS, entitled PROMISS94, a second sensitivity study including the effect of low-cycle mechanical fatigue, as well as, the three previous effects was performed. Results, in the form of cumulative distribution functions, illustrated the sensitivity of lifetime strength to any current value of an effect. In addition, verification studies comparing a combination of high-cycle mechanical fatigue and high temperature effects by model to the combination by experiment were conducted. Thus, for Inconel 718, the basic model assumption of independence between effects was evaluated. Results from this limited verification study strongly supported this assumption.

Bast, Callie C.↗

The effect of boron supplementation on lean body mass, plasma testosterone levels, and strength in male bodybuilders

The effect of boron supplementation was investigated in 19 male bodybuilders ages 20-27 years. Ten were given a 2.5-mg boron supplement while 9 were given a placebo every day for 7 weeks. Plasma total and free testosterone, plasma boron, lean body mass, and strength measurements were determined on Days 1 and 49 of the study. Plasma boron values were significantly (p < 0.05) different as the experimental group increased from (+/- SD) 20.1 +/- 7.7 ppb pretest to 32.6 +/- 27.6 ppb posttest, while the control group mean decreased from 15.1 +/- 14.4 ppb pretest to 6.3 +/- 5.5 ppb posttest. Analysis of variance indicated no significant effect of boron supplementation on any of the dependent variables. Both groups demonstrated significant increases in total testosterone, lean body mass, 1-RM squat, and 1-RM bench press. The findings suggest that 7 weeks of bodybuilding can increase total testosterone, lean body mass, and strength in lesser trained bodybuilders, and that boron supplementation had no effect on these measures.

Controlled Clinical Trial↗

Transcriptomics-based Machine Learning Analysis Predicts Space-Exposed Murine Livers

Limited sample sizes, high data dimensionality, and sensitivity to technical and biological variability of next generation sequencing (NGS), has typically limited machine learning (ML) in space studies and further study of radiation effects. However, pooling smaller studies while addressing intra- and inter-study variabilities allows for ML predictive modeling. Here, integration methods were applied to whole transcriptome shotgun sequencing (RNAseq) data from 6 mouse liver GeneLab datasets (GLDS) with a total of 113 spaceflight and ground-control samples to determine top features relevant to spaceflight including the effect of radiation exposure. Data was normalized within each study, then merged and scaled across all datasets. Data dimensionality was reduced using a minimum redundancy maximum relevance (MRMR) methodology. The top MRMR features were used to predict spaceflight vs. ground-control samples using a Random Forest (RF) classifier with 5-fold cross validation (CV). The ML-based gene sets were further compared against differential gene expression results from individual GLDS. CV training using the top 100 MRMR genes show averages of 86% accuracy and 0.95 AUC value on the validation set over 5 folds (Figure 1A). Baseline set analysis on differentially expressed genes (DEGs) identified using padj ≤ 0.05 show 811 or 68 DEGs overlapping between at least 2 or 3 studies, respectively (Figure 1B). Over-representation analysis showed overlapping biological processes related to fatty acid and lipid metabolism. Set analysis between the MRMR features and the DEGs showed 60 or 8 genes overlapping with at least 1 or 2 studies, respectively. MRMR feature selection and ensemble ML methods (e.g. RF) improve performance relative to a Naïve Bayes classifier when NGS data sets are analyzed. A challenge of applying ML methods across heterogeneous NGS data is accounting for signal:noise ratio. Here, signal validation across studies was shown by intersecting sets between top MRMR genes and DEGs from RNASeq analysis. Non-intersecting sets introduce opportunity to explore spaceflight relevant genes and implementing ML methods across existing NGS datasets may overcome sample size limitations. ML coupled with existing analytical methods enhances understanding of disease by revealing common underlying pathways across datasets.

Machine Learning↗

Concepts for a theoretical and experimental study of lifting rotor random loads and vibrations (identification of lifting rotor system parameters from transient response data), Phase 7-B

System identification methods have been applied to rotorcraft to estimate stability derivatives from transient flight control response data. While these applications assumed a linear constant coefficient representation of the rotorcraft, the computer experiments used transient responses in flap-bending and torsion of a rotor blade at high advance ratio which is a rapidly time varying periodic system. It was found that a simple system identification method applying a linear sequential estimator also called least square estimator or equation of motion estimator, is suitable for this periodic system and can be used directly if only the acceleration data are noise polluted. In the case of noise being present also in the state variable data the direct application of the estimator gave poor results.

Hohenemser, K. H.↗

The Implications of Encoder/Modulator/ Phased Array Designs for Future Broadband LEO Communications

In this paper we summarize the effects of modulation and channel coding on the design of wide angle scan, broadband, phased army antennas. In the paper we perform several trade studies. First, we investigate the amplifier back-off requirement as a function of variability of modulation envelope. Specifically, we contrast constant and non-constant envelope modulations, as well as single and multiple carrier schemes. Additionally, we address the issues an(f concerns of using pulse shaping filters with the above modulation types. Second, we quantify the effects of beam steering on the quality of data, recovery using selected modulation techniques. In particular, we show that the frequency response of the array introduces intersymbol interference for broadband signals and that the mode of operation for the beam steering controller may introduce additional burst or random errors. Finally, we show that the encoder/modulator design must be performed in conjunction with the phased array antenna design.

Vanderaar, Mark↗

Reaction Wheel Disturbance Model Extraction Software - RWDMES

The RWDMES is a tool for modeling the disturbances imparted on spacecraft by spinning reaction wheels. Reaction wheels are usually the largest disturbance source on a precision pointing spacecraft, and can be the dominating source of pointing error. Accurate knowledge of the disturbance environment is critical to accurate prediction of the pointing performance. In the past, it has been difficult to extract an accurate wheel disturbance model since the forcing mechanisms are difficult to model physically, and the forcing amplitudes are filtered by the dynamics of the reaction wheel. RWDMES captures the wheel-induced disturbances using a hybrid physical/empirical model that is extracted directly from measured forcing data. The empirical models capture the tonal forces that occur at harmonics of the spin rate, and the broadband forces that arise from random effects. The empirical forcing functions are filtered by a physical model of the wheel structure that includes spin-rate-dependent moments (gyroscopic terms). The resulting hybrid model creates a highly accurate prediction of wheel-induced forces. It accounts for variation in disturbance frequency, as well as the shifts in structural amplification by the whirl modes, as the spin rate changes. This software provides a point-and-click environment for producing accurate models with minimal user effort. Where conventional approaches may take weeks to produce a model of variable quality, RWDMES can create a demonstrably high accuracy model in two hours. The software consists of a graphical user interface (GUI) that enables the user to specify all analysis parameters, to evaluate analysis results and to iteratively refine the model. Underlying algorithms automatically extract disturbance harmonics, initialize and tune harmonic models, and initialize and tune broadband noise models. The component steps are described in the RWDMES user s guide and include: converting time domain data to waterfall PSDs (power spectral densities); converting PSDs to order analysis data; extracting harmonics; initializing and simultaneously tuning a harmonic model and a wheel structural model; initializing and tuning a broadband model; and verifying the harmonic/broadband/structural model against the measurement data. Functional operation is through a MATLAB GUI that loads test data, performs the various analyses, plots evaluation data for assessment and refinement of analysis parameters, and exports the data to documentation or downstream analysis code. The harmonic models are defined as specified functions of frequency, typically speed-squared. The reaction wheel structural model is realized as mass, damping, and stiffness matrices (typically from a finite element analysis package) with the addition of a gyroscopic forcing matrix. The broadband noise model is realized as a set of speed-dependent filters. The tuning of the combined model is performed using nonlinear least squares techniques. RWDMES is implemented as a MATLAB toolbox comprising the Fit Manager for performing the model extraction, Data Manager for managing input data and output models, the Gyro Manager for modifying wheel structural models, and the Harmonic Editor for evaluating and tuning harmonic models. This software was validated using data from Goodrich E wheels, and from GSFC Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) wheels. The validation testing proved that RWDMES has the capability to extract accurate disturbance models from flight reaction wheels with minimal user effort.

Blaurock, Carl↗

Phased-mission system analysis using Boolean algebraic methods

Most reliability analysis techniques and tools assume that a system is used for a mission consisting of a single phase. However, multiple phases are natural in many missions. The failure rates of components, system configuration, and success criteria may vary from phase to phase. In addition, the duration of a phase may be deterministic or random. Recently, several researchers have addressed the problem of reliability analysis of such systems using a variety of methods. A new technique for phased-mission system reliability analysis based on Boolean algebraic methods is described. Our technique is computationally efficient and is applicable to a large class of systems for which the failure criterion in each phase can be expressed as a fault tree (or an equivalent representation). Our technique avoids state space explosion that commonly plague Markov chain-based analysis. A phase algebra to account for the effects of variable configurations and success criteria from phase to phase was developed. Our technique yields exact (as opposed to approximate) results. The use of our technique was demonstrated by means of an example and present numerical results to show the effects of mission phases on the system reliability.

Somani, Arun K.↗

Effect of training on blood volume and plasma hormone concentrations in the elderly

The purpose of this investigation was to determine the effects of 6 months of endurance training on resting plasma (PV) and blood volume (BV), and resting hormone and electrolyte concentrations in the elderly. Thirty-eight elderly men and women (ages 60-82 yr) were assigned to endurance exercise training (N = 29) or to control (N = 9) groups. Resting plasma levels of adrenocorticotropic hormone, vasopressin, aldosterone, norepinephrine, epinephrine, sodium, potassium, and protein were measured at the start (T1) and end (T2) of 26 wk of training. PV measurement was performed using the Evan's blue dye technique. Endurance training consisted of uphill treadmill walking or stairclimbing exercise 3 times.wk-1, 30-45 min.d-1, at 75-84% of maximal heart rate reserve. The exercise group increased VO2max by 11.2% (P < or = 0.05) and increased resting PV and BV by 11.2% and 12.7% (P < or = 0.05), respectively. Hormone and electrolyte levels in the exercise group remained unchanged; all variables were unchanged in the control group. These results are similar to findings in younger individuals. Because plasma hormone concentrations were maintained despite a chronically elevated BV, endurance training in healthy, elderly subjects may be associated with a resetting of volume receptors.

Clinical Trial↗

Influence of Vibrotactile Feedback on Controlling Tilt Motion After Spaceflight

We hypothesize that adaptive changes in how inertial cues from the vestibular system are integrated with other sensory information leads to perceptual disturbances and impaired manual control following transitions between gravity environments. The primary goals of this ongoing post-flight investigation are to quantify decrements in manual control of tilt motion following short-duration spaceflight and to evaluate vibrotactile feedback of tilt as a sensorimotor countermeasure. METHODS. Data is currently being collected on 9 astronaut subjects during 3 preflight sessions and during the first 8 days after Shuttle landings. Variable radius centrifugation (216 deg/s, <20 cm radius) in a darkened room is utilized to elicit otolith reflexes in the lateral plane without concordant canal or visual cues. A Tilt-Translation Sled (TTS) is capable of synchronizing pitch tilt with fore-aft translation to align the resultant gravitoinertial vector with the longitudinal body axis, thereby eliciting canal reflexes without concordant otolith or visual cues. A simple 4 tactor system was implemented to provide feedback when tilt position exceeded predetermined levels in either device. Closed-loop nulling tasks are performed during random tilt steps or sum-of-sines (TTS only) with and without vibrotactile feedback of chair position. RESULTS. On landing day the manual control performance without vibrotactile feedback was reduced by >30% based on the gain or the amount of tilt disturbance successfully nulled. Manual control performance tended to return to baseline levels within 1-2 days following landing. Root-mean-square position error and tilt velocity were significantly reduced with vibrotactile feedback. CONCLUSIONS. These preliminary results are consistent with our hypothesis that adaptive changes in vestibular processing corresponds to reduced manual control performance following G-transitions. A simple vibrotactile prosthesis improves the ability to null out tilt motion within a limited range of motion disturbances.

Wood, S. J.↗

Characterization of Evidence for Human System Risk Assessment

Understanding the kinds of evidence available and using the best evidence to answer a question is critical to evidenced-based decision-making, and it requires synthesis of evidence from a variety of sources. Categorization of human system risks in spaceflight, in particular, focuses on how well the integration and interpretation of all available evidence informs the risk statement that describes the relationship between spaceflight hazards and an outcome of interest. A mature understanding and categorization of these risks requires: 1) sufficient characterization of risk, 2) sufficient knowledge to determine an acceptable level of risk (i.e., a standard), 3) development of mitigations to meet the acceptable level of risk, and 4) identification of factors affecting generalizability of the evidence to different design reference missions. In the medical research community, evidence is often ranked by increasing confidence in findings gleaned from observational and experimental research (e.g., "levels of evidence"). However, an approach based solely on aspects of experimental design is problematic in assessing human system risks for spaceflight. For spaceflight, the unique challenges and opportunities include: (1) The independent variables in most evidence are the hazards of spaceflight, such as space radiation or low gravity, which cannot be entirely duplicated in terrestrial (Earth-based) analogs, (2) Evidence is drawn from multiple sources including medical and mission operations, Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH), spaceflight research (LSDA), and relevant environmental & terrestrial databases, (3) Risk metrics based primarily on LSAH data are typically derived from available prevalence or incidence data, which may limit rigorous interpretation, (4) The timeframe for obtaining adequate spaceflight sample size (n) is very long, given the small population, (5) Randomized controlled trials are unattainable in spaceflight, (6) Collection of personal and environmental data on the astronaut population may create opportunities for advanced analytics and human-environment modeling that goes beyond that achieved in isolated experimental designs; and (7) Translation of relevant research to operations is a complex, transdisciplinary enterprise in which the approach must apply across the physical, biological, behavioral, and social sciences. The approach to synthesizing evidence must address both source and fidelity of data, and reflect the most general attributes of quality of evidence in science and engineering: reliability and validity. The authors are developing a two-factor approach which includes the various kinds of evidence required to understand risks and for the integrated interpretation of all evidence that is essential to develop standards and countermeasures. A unified framework for aggregating and assessing different kinds of evidence provides a consistent, traceable, evidence-based decision-making process to translate research to operations in an environment where engineers, scientists, physicians, and managers all engage in analyzing the trade space of vehicle design, standards, requirements and solutions for spaceflight.

Steinberg, S. L.↗