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NASA NTRS2024

NPCC4: Tail Risk, Climate Drivers of Extreme Heat, and New Methods for Extreme Event Projections

We summarize historic New York City (NYC) climate change trends and provide the latest scientific analyses on projected future changes based on a range of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Building on previous NPCC assessment reports, we describe new methods used to develop the projections of record for sea level rise, temperature, and precipitation for NYC, across multiple emissions pathways and analyze the issue of the “hot models” associated with the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and their potential impact on NYC's climate projections. We describe the state of the science on temperature variability within NYC and explain both the large-scale and regional dynamics that lead to extreme heat events, as well as the local physical drivers that lead to inequitable distributions of exposure to extreme heat. We identify three areas of tail risk and potential for its mischaracterization, including the physical processes of extreme events and the effects of a changing climate. Finally, we review opportunities for future research, with a focus on the hot model problem and the intersection of spatial resolution of projections with gaps in knowledge in the impacts of the climate signal on intraurban heat and heat exposure.

NPCC4↗

DOE OSTI2017

United States Advanced Ultra-Supercritical Component Test Facility for 760°C Steam Power Plants ComTest Project

Following the successful completion of a 15-year effort to develop and test materials that would allow coal-fired power plants to be operated at advanced ultra-supercritical (A-USC) steam conditions, a United States-based consortium is presently engaged in a project to build an A-USC component test facility (ComTest). A-USC steam cycles have the potential to improve cycle efficiency, reduce fuel costs, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Current development and demonstration efforts are focused on enabling the construction of A-USC plants, operating with steam temperatures as high as 1400°F (760°C) and steam pressures up to 5000 psi (35 MPa), which can potentially increase cycle efficiencies to 47% HHV (higher heating value), or approximately 50% LHV (lower heating value), and reduce CO 2 emissions by roughly 25%, compared to today’s U.S. fleet. A-USC technology provides a lower-cost method to reduce CO 2 emissions, compared to CO 2 capture technologies, while retaining a viable coal option for owners of coal generation assets. Among the goals of the ComTest facility are to validate that components made from advanced nickel-based alloys can operate and perform under A-USC conditions, to accelerate the development of a U.S.-based supply chain for the full complement of A-USC components, and to decrease the uncertainty of cost estimates for future A-USC power plants. The configuration of the ComTest facility would include the key A-USC technology components that were identified for expanded operational testing, including a gas-fired superheater, high-temperature steam piping, steam turbine valve, and cycling header component. Membrane walls in the superheater have been designed to operate at the full temperatures expected in a commercial A-USC boiler, but at a lower (intermediate) operating pressure. This superheater has been designed to increase the temperature of the steam supplied by the host utility boiler up to 1400°F (760°C). The steam turbine stop and control valve component has been designed to operate at full A-USC temperatures, and would be tested both in throttling operation and to accumulate accelerated, repetitive stroke cycles. A cycling header component has been designed to confirm the suitability of new high-temperature nickel alloys to cycling operation, expected of future coal-fired power plants. Current test plans would subject these components to A-USC operating conditions for at least 8,000 hours by September 2020. The ComTest project is managed by Energy Industries of Ohio, and technically directed by the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc., with General Electric designing the A-USC components. This consortium is completing the Detailed Engineering phase of the project, with procurement scheduled to begin in late 2017. The effort is primarily funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, through the National Energy Technology Laboratory, along with the Ohio Development Services Agency. This presentation outlines the motivation for the project, explains the project’s structure and schedule, and provides technical details on the design of the ComTest facility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

The Role of Numerical Simulation in the Design of Stimulation and Circulation Experiments for the EGS Collab Project

The United States Department of Energy, Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) is funding a collaborative investigation of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) processes at the meso-scale. This study, referred to as the EGS Collab project, is a unique opportunity for scientists and engineers to investigate the creation of fracture networks and circulation of fluids across those networks under in-situ stress conditions. The EGS Collab project is envisioned to comprise three experiments and the site for the first experiment is on the 4850 Level in phyllite of the Precambrian Poorman formation, at the Sanford Underground Research Facility, located at the former Homestake Gold Mine, in Lead, South Dakota. Principal objectives of the project are to develop a number of intermediate-scale field sites and to conduct well-controlled in situ experiments focused on rock fracture behavior and permeability enhancement. Data generated during these experiments will be compared against predictions of a suite of computer codes specifically designed to solve problems involving coupled thermal, hydrological, geomechanical, and geochemical processes. Comparisons between experimental and numerical simulation results will provide code developers with direction for improvements and verification of process models, build confidence in the suite of available numerical tools, and ultimately identify critical future development needs for the geothermal modeling community. Moreover, conducting thorough comparisons of models, modelling approaches, measurement approaches and measured data, via the EGS Collab project, will serve to identify techniques that are most likely to succeed at the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE), the GTO’s flagship EGS research effort. As noted, outcomes from the EGS Collab project experiments will serve as benchmarks for computer code verification, but numerical simulation additional plays an essential role in designing these meso-scale experiments. This paper describes specific calculations and numerical simulation approaches conducted in support of the designs for the stimulation and circulation experiments, and their monitoring, including those for predicting seismic energies during stimulation, stimulation pressure requirements, impacts of borehole orientation on fracture development and trajectories, influence of notch shapes on hydraulic fracture initiation, and pressure limits on fluid circulation to avoid fracture growth.

Numerical Simulation, EGS Collab, EGS, Sanford Und↗

DOE OSTI2020

Project Methods to Enhance Wellbore Cement Integrity with Microbially-Induced Calcite Precipitation (MICP) (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The goal of this project was to develop improved methods for sealing compromised wellbore cement in leaking oil and gas wells, thereby reducing the risk of unwanted upward fluid migration. Novel methods for improving wellbore integrity, such as microbially induced calcite precipitation (MICP), can reduce leakage potential, improve the safety of fossil fuel extraction, improve the public perception of hydraulic fracturing, and promote environmentally-prudent unconventional oil and gas development. Microbes, with the urease enzyme, can catalyze the chemical reaction of urea hydrolysis to induce the precipitation of calcium carbonate which can be used as a cementitious material to seal leakage pathways. In this project, methods to promote robust bio-composite cementitious materials were designed and tested in the laboratory. Scale-up of those methods were tested in meso-scale reactor systems and in field applications. In this report, in Section One, we describe laboratory efforts to develop injection strategies to promote precipitation in wellbore analogs and determine the strength of the bio-composite cements as compared to fine cement. In Section Two, we describe the efforts to scale up the work and study the use of materials that can be used in field application, for example exploring the use of calcium chloride ice melt or urea fertilizer as source chemicals. In Section Three, the three field trials (methods and results) performed as part of the project are described and summarized. At the end of the report is a comprehensive summary and conclusion section which highlights the key findings of the project. The work performed during this project significantly advanced the technology readiness level (TRL) of the MICP wellbore sealing strategy.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2019

Pansophy data as used to develop metrics and evaluate trends across SRF projects and facilities to further quality improvement initiatives

Pansophy, a JLAB SRF engineering data management system (EDMS), is composed of a collection of technolo-gies that together provide for the collection, management and analysis of data for the production and testing of cavities and cryomodules. From its inception in 2000, when data collection was a priority for such projects as SNS, CEBAF 12GeV upgrade, LCLS-II, and in the future the SNS-PPU, the focus has turned to data analysis and reporting on quality metrics and key performance indica-tors (KPIs). Reporting enhancements include monthly quality metrics, project specific KPIs, and trending across projects. With the use of Pareto Charts to help analyze vendor quality and non-conformance, timelines of pro-ject and facility metrics, project managers and subject matter experts (SME) are able to look for trends and pre-pare further quality improvement initiatives for their projects.

McDonald, M. G.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Better bang for your buck? Comparing savings realization from ESPCs and direct-funded projects

Energy savings performance contracts (ESPCs) offer an opportunity to tremendously scale decarbonization projects, given their paid-from-savings premise. However, prospective customers still question whether ESPC is worth the effort and expense. This study evaluates the savings realization rates of ESPCs compared to direct-funded projects using ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager (ESPM) benchmarking data. It compares normalized EUIs from ESPM before and after energy conservation projects implemented via ESPC or direct funding in roughly 450 federal buildings. This documented change, ideally a savings, can then be compared to the estimated savings from the energy conservation initiative in order to generate a rough realization rate. Preliminary results indicate a notably greater savings realization rate for the ESPC buildings (median = 105% of estimated savings) than those that underwent direct-funded projects (median = 46%). Because of a shortage of good quality data and the wide range in results, the difference is only significant at the p < 0.20 level. However, the higher savings realization of ESPCs corroborates the authors’ 2014 findings using a different comparison method. With continued soft government funding and regulatory impediments for climate change mitigation in the U.S., financed, paid-from-savings project models (e.g., ESPC, PACE, EaaS and others) certainly merit more attention. This study’s results are particularly compelling (and encouraging) given the country’s likely reliance on these vehicles to address existing building retrofits.

Earni, Shankar↗

DOE OSTI2023

Determining the Effects of Neutron Irradiation on the Structural Integrity of Additively Manufactured Heat Exchangers for Very Small Modular Reactor Applications, DOE Final Report (Project # 19-16980)

Auburn University (AU) teamed with the University of Missouri Research Reactor (MURR) and Kansas State University (KSU) to determine how to best use laser-powder bed fusion (L-PBF) additive manufacturing (AM) methods for generating radiation resistant nickel-based superalloys, Inconel alloy 625 and 718, for special purpose reactor (SPR) or very small modular reactor (vSMR) heat-exchangers (HeXs). Compact, conformal, and durable HeXs that are tolerant of extreme environments are needed for supporting the technical maturity of next-generation, portable compact reactors. AM is an enabler for realizing this new wave of HeXs – providing a means to make customizable hot and cold stream architectures with novel flow path geometries (e.g., tortuous channels with non-uniform, asymmetric cross-sections) and reduced layer-to-layer contact resistance (i.e., no separate bonding procedure required). AM further enables a more time/cost efficient means for fabricating SPRs by reducing the number of suppliers required for HeX assembly and allowing for on-site HeX fabrication. The project aim has been to better understand how neutron irradiation affects the microstructure and properties of additively manufactured nickel-based superalloys, to accelerate their safe, reliable use in the modular reactor industry. The major objective was to qualify/quantify the microstructure and microhardness of nickel-based superalloys (including Inconel 718 and 625) additively manufactured via the L-PBF process in the neutron-dosed (irradiated) and non-irradiated states over a course of 3 years. Effects of build orientation during L-PBF and post-AM heat treatments on neutron resistance, microstructure and mechanical properties were also investigated. Neutron damage mechanisms via hardening were characterized. This project combined subject-matter experts in AM, mechanical/microstructure metallic part characterization, and neutron irradiation, as well as unique assets and capabilities at AU and MURR at MU, to ensure project results translated to effectively addressing known gaps in nuclear science and engineering. Parts were fabricated using L-PBF systems readily available at AU. Specimens were then irradiated using MURR facilities; a manipulator equipped hot cell was also used to measure material hardness after dosing. MURR, a 10 MW, light-water nuclear reactor, is the largest, highest powered, highest-flux university owned research reactor in the U.S. The major findings in this project provide evidence that AM can serve as an alternative way to build structural components for future advanced small modular reactors using advanced materials like Inconel 625 (IN625) or Inconel 718 (IN718). After full spectrum neutron irradiation, vertically as-built AM IN625 samples were observed to display better resistance towards radiation-induced-hardening defects relative to traditionally machined metals. A Vickers microhardness tester, using settings of 1 kgf and dwell time of 15 seconds per indentation, was used to measure hardness in this study. The as-built, vertically printed samples experienced 1.2% of radiation hardening vs. 5.25% radiation hardening observed in wrought IN625. Another set of IN625 and IN718 samples were exposed to fast neutron irradiation. It was observed that IN718 showed more resistance towards radiation hardening compared to IN625 samples indicating IN718 had a better performance. Results showed that the IN718 samples experienced less change (-2.5 to 3.24 %) in microhardness. On the other hand, IN625 samples underwent more (0.9 to 7.21%) change in microhardness after fast neutron irradiation. AM IN625 samples were irradiated using an ion (proton) beam in cyclotron. The mechanical properties of AM samples post irradiation were compared with wrought samples. The irradiated region on the samples were tested using nano-hardness indention. It was observed that the beam current and time used in this study generated an annealing effect and thus reduced the hardness of the samples. The sum of the project results provide precious insight into how one may minimize radiation hardening in AM materials while maintaining material property constraints. Results should assist engineers in selecting an appropriate heat treatment for AM nickel-based superalloys for increased radiation resistance. Results should increase confidence levels for adopting AM for building nuclear reactor components which perform the same or better than conventionally manufactured components. Fast neutron irradiation testing provided an accelerated means of obtaining radiation effects without making materials radioactive and difficult to handle.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

BOTTLE 7 - Industry Projects & Engagement

One of BOTTLE's primary goals is to work with industry to catalyze new technologies towards our overall vision and mission using a centralized industry engagement plan which aims to 1) solve real-world problems in plastics upcycling via targeted, company-funded projects; 2) promote industrial engagement via streamlined access to BOTTLE partners and technologies; and 3) collaborate with companies to scale and deploy BOTTLE technologies into the economy. Our approach follows a 5-stage model: prospecting, initial engagement, knowledge sharing, proposal and contracting, and opportunity won. Since FY21, BOTTLE has onboarded a full-time Chief Technology Officer to spearhead industry engagement and lead industrially-funded research projects. To date, BOTTLE has engaged with >150 companies, executed 6 industrial funds-in CRADAs, completed 2 industry projects successfully, extended 2 CRADAs with follow-on funds, and submitted over 30 patent applications. Industry projects span the Deconstruction, Upcycling, and Redesign tasks, harness the capabilities of the cross-cutting tasks, and take advantage of the broad IP portfolio developed through DOE funding. BOTTLE partners have an inventory of innovations that can inform the design of industry-specific collaborative projects with the highest probability of producing novel IP. Engaging with a diverse set of companies has also directly informed our R&D portfolio towards maximizing impact and utility of BOTTLE innovations.

BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Improving Decommissioning Success using the Tool of Virtual Reality; Increasing Worker Safety and Project Schedule Stability - 17193

operations, especially underwater, is essential. Equally essential is a precise game plan for disassembly which focuses attention on the skilled remote handling operators who must produce the results. Project success is based on clean, efficient cuts and take-aways, prepared paths for waste placement and containment, programmed return paths; and practice, practice, practice on the part of the operators. Recently, our Partner, WAK Ruackbau- und Entsorgungs- GmbH (Decommissioning and Waste Management Company) was tasked with dismantling and decommissioning the Karlsruhe Reprocessing Plant. The most difficult task in this project is the dismantling of the vitrification plant. Waelischmiller was selected to address this high-consequence project. Together, WAK and Waelischmiller determined that development of a virtual reality suite, where management and operators could create a virtual vitrification layout and subsequently map and rehearse their dismantling plan was essential. This approach, using Virtual Reality (VR) as a tool in streamlining operations and rehearsing difficult moves and cuts, will be a game changer for this and future projects. It will be a first-of-a-kind in Germany. The VR suite is contained in a room at the Karlsruhe facility with a large screen, control cabinet, simulation computer, a Waelischmiller Joyarm and Masterarm. To support the dismantling of the vitrification plant, WAK/HWM will conduct interactive feasibility studies for each dismantling step. All movements; cuts, take-aways and vessel segment insertion into transportation and disposal casks will be established, programed and practiced within virtual test suite. This allows savings in cost-intensive and complex construction of test rigs. Operating personnel can be trained in the VR suite, without taking the risk of damaging expensive remote handling equipment.While the operators are working on the operating element, they stand in front of a wide screen. Instead of a real TELBOT{sup R}, a virtual TELBOT{sup R} is moving on the screen in virtual reality. While practicing, the operators cannot damage the arm and the equipment, which is a big advantage. Moreover an interactive feasibility study can be realized without building a real test rig (mock-up). Consequently significant cost-expenses can be reduced. This paper will describe the virtual suite used by the WAK in Karlsruhe and the advantages of this new and innovative approach, which is unique in decommissioning of nuclear facilities. The viewpoint of each (WAK and HWM), and the decisions and benefits realized along the project path will be detailed in the paper. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2018

Waste Encapsulation and Storage Facility Stabilization and Ventilation Project-18121

Department of Energy contractor CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company (CH2M) is responsible for the safe and compliant operation of the Waste Encapsulation and Storage Facility (WESF), a nuclear materials storage facility at Hanford containing 1,936 highly radioactive capsules containing cesium and strontium. The capsules are currently stored under approximately 4 m (13 ft) of water. The water shields workers from radiation and helps cool the capsules. WESF is a large, concrete structure nominally 48 m (160 ft) long, 30 m (98 ft) wide and 12 m (40 ft) high with the pool cells being approximately 4 m (13 ft) below grade level. It is a robust facility with walls ranging from 0.3 m to 1 m (1 ft to 3 ft) thick. While the capsules are currently in a safe configuration, WESF is an aging facility, and DOE and CH2M are modifying the facility to ensure continued safe and compliant operations and to support the eventual transfer of capsules to dry storage. Dry storage would eliminate the possibility of a release of radioactive material in the unlikely event of a major earthquake that might result in loss of pool storage water and overheating and breach of one or more capsules. The project was divided into two major deliverables: 1) Ventilation: replacement of the existing ventilation system which included a below-grade high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filter pit with an above grade HEPA filter skid and new fans and ducting. 2) Stabilization: grouting deactivated facility hot cells and other void spaces to the maximum extent practical to reduce material at risk from legacy contamination. The aging ventilation system relied on HEPA filters that exceeded their operational life. Due to the high levels of radionuclide contamination, replacing the filters was impractical and highly hazardous. CH2M installed a new ventilation system to provide safe and compliant ventilation for future operations. The project used an existing, unused ventilation skid that was designed for another project. Repurposing the unused skid presented additional technical challenges to modify the system for the project specific requirements. The new system is above ground, easier to maintain and is built to current standards. New connections inside the facility were installed to allow the new ventilation to operate effectively. The stabilization project is unique in that core drilling and grouting was performed in an operating Hazard Category 2 nuclear facility, which brought forth safety basis and environmental regulatory challenges. The hot cells were isolated from all existing support utilities including electrical, process chemicals, manipulator ports, instrument air, etc. to seal the hot cells and prevent highly contaminated supernate or grout from leaking into adjacent galleries. A high flow grout was used to maximize the distance between injection ports. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2018

Port Hope Area Initiative - Port Granby Project: Effectiveness of the Radiation Protection Program - 18595

The Port Granby Project is large remediation project currently underway. It is approximately 50% complete. A comprehensive and effective radiation protection program has been developed and implemented for the Port Granby Project. The potential radiation hazards associated with this project include: external (gamma) radiation, radon, inhalation, contamination and ingestion. The radiation protection program is highly effective and has succeeded in managing the significant radiation hazards associated with this remediation project. (authors)

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Leveraging 3D CAD and Virtual Reality in Design of the Calcine Disposition Project - 20512

Fluor Idaho's Calcine Disposition Project (CDP) is leveraging the power of three-dimensional (3D) visualization, light detection and ranging (Lidar), and virtual reality to improve designs and worker safety. With the use of computer-aided design (CAD) modeling software, the CDP has created 3D models of the facility and systems to aid in the design, development, and operation of its retrieval and transfer system. This by itself is nothing new and has been done in industry for years. The CDP project however is taking this a few steps farther with the use of Lidar and virtual reality software. The CRP is tasked with removing a radioactive granular material from stainless steel bins located in concrete vaults that were constructed in the late 1950's and early 1960's. While construction drawings are available, it is not certain that the drawings are as-built or how accurate they truly are. Part of the project requires precise placement of equipment on to bins around multiple pipe, electrical lines, and bin stiffeners. Relying solely on the existing drawings and models created from these drawings is highly risky and prone to failure. The first step to determine the precise location and orientation of all obstructions in the vault the project will use a Lidar system to scan the vault structure and precisely locate all vault and bin components. Once this information is obtained, the data will be integrated into the CAD model. The model will then be verified, and a true as-built model developed. Precise component location, size, and orientation will be used for final design and placement of retrieval components. The second step will be to take the verified 3D model and scan data and import it into virtual reality software creating a virtual world. While some work on the project requires all work to be completed remotely due to high radiation fields, some areas have low enough radiation levels that personnel can enter and perform work. With the use of a virtual reality headset, operators and technicians will be able to enter our virtual world and become familiar with the surroundings and perform work prior to ever entering the radiation environment. This training is expected to pay dividends by improving worker efficiency, reducing errors, and improving confidence that the work can be performed as expected. It will play a key aspect in as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA) principles. An additional aspect in using the Lidar scans and virtual environment, is that it will give engineers and managers an opportunity to revisit the facility, especially radiation areas, at any time to obtain design information and measurements that may be costly or impossible to obtain once the facility transitions into radiation operations. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Professor Motivations and Implementations of a Real-World Problem-Solving Project: A Case Study in Preparing Students for the Emerging Building Science Industry: Preprint

Engineering education literature offers a variety of theoretical and conceptual frameworks for project-based learning. This study explores the implementation of real-world problem-solving projects in engineering education. The research team analyzed the motivations and methods behind professors' adoption of such projects through exploratory qualitative interviews with seven professor participants who integrated a nation-wide student competition into their courses. We analyzed the resulting data using a constructivist grounded theory approach to identify key themes of professor practices. Findings reveal that the real-world aspect of the projects and alignment with values and research interests were primary motivators for implementation. While implementation methods varied significantly based on context (i.e., university setting, course type), we found that these projects could be effectively integrated into various classroom settings. The findings support the recommendation for non-academic institutions to develop and manage competitions that can be integrated into classrooms and which offer a point of engagement that is available to professors from a wide range of disciplines.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2017

High‐Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

Abstract The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal‐length time slices (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995–2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm‐side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm‐side shift with decreased variability. Using “business‐as‐usual” scenario, 5‐day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5–10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1–2 months by the end of the century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climate Change Projection in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 Model Based on New GHGs Concentration Pathways

Abstract The National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Projection pursuit adaptation on polynomial chaos expansions

Here, the present work addresses the issue of accurate stochastic approximations in high-dimensional parametric space using tools from uncertainty quantification (UQ). The basis adaptation method and its accelerated algorithm in polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) were recently proposed to construct low-dimensional approximations adapted to specific quantities of interest (QoI). The present paper addresses one difficulty with these adaptations, namely their reliance on quadrature point sampling, which limits the reusability of potentially expensive samples. Projection pursuit (PP) is a statistical tool to find the “interesting” projections in high-dimensional data and thus bypass the curse-of-dimensionality. In the present work, we combine the fundamental ideas of basis adaptation and projection pursuit regression (PPR) to propose a novel method to simultaneously learn the optimal low-dimensional spaces and PCE representation from given data. While this projection pursuit adaptation (PPA) can be entirely data-driven, the constructed approximation exhibits mean-square convergence to the solution of an underlying governing equation and thus captures the supports and probability distributions associated with the physics constraints. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a borehole problem and a structural dynamics problem, demonstrating the versatility of the method and its ability to discover low-dimensional manifolds with high accuracy with limited data. In addition, the method can learn surrogate models for different quantities of interest while reusing the same data set.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

The retailed gasoline price in China: Time-series analysis and future trend projection

This study introduces a method to systematically project retailed gasoline prices in China and provides projection results. Based on oil taxation and pricing mechanisms in China, this study establishes the statistical relationship between the retailed gasoline prices in China and international crude oil prices using error correction models (ECM), time-series models. Detailed comparison among asymmetric ECM, threshold ECM, and threshold asymmetric ECM are provided. By adopting the ECMs, the study projects the retailed gasoline prices from 2019 to 2050 based on the international crude oil prices from the Annual Energy Outlook provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The results show that the asymmetric responsiveness and the threshold effect exist under current Chinese oil pricing policy with a lag of one month or even shorter in gasoline price adjustment. Moreover, the analysis informs one that, in the short-run, the retailed gasoline prices in China are more sensitive to international crude oil price increases; while in the long-run, the retailed gasoline prices are more sensitive to international crude oil price decreases. Compared with the national average gasoline price in China of 6.04 CNY/Liter in 2017, the national average gasoline price in China is projected to be about 7.64 CNY/Liter (2017 dollar) by 2050.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Application of emerging monitoring techniques at the Illinois Basin – Decatur Project

The Illinois Basin – Decatur Project is a large-scale carbon capture and storage demonstration project located in Decatur, Illinois, USA. In this project, one million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) was captured from an ethanol production facility and successfully injected into a deep saline reservoir over a period of three years. The scale of this project presented an opportunity to explore emerging technologies for effective long-term monitoring of the carbon capture and storage site. This research documents the application of three emerging monitoring techniques: (1) a prototype “open-path” sensor, a method of continuously monitoring atmospheric CO 2 by applying tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy to provide a warning system for personnel safety along pipelines and at wellheads; (2) the Greenhouse Gas Laser Imaging Tomography Experiment (GreenLITE), an automated system for measuring two-dimensional spatial distribution of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations; and (3) periodic aerial imagery, a method of documenting surface-vegetation dynamics to detect vegetative responses to CO 2 leaks. The objective of this work was to assess the advantages and limitations of these monitoring techniques and quantify their reliability over an extended deployment at an active industrial site. These results will aid in determining viability of long-term monitoring on a commercial scale.

42 ENGINEERING↗