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At least 775 records · Page 43

A data-driven framework for sparsity-enhanced surrogates with arbitrary mutually dependent randomness

The challenge of quantifying uncertainty propagation in real-world systems is rooted in the high-dimensionality of the stochastic input and the frequent lack of explicit knowledge of its probability distribution. Traditional approaches show limitations for such problems, especially when the size of the training data is limited. To address these diculties, we have developed a general framework of constructing surrogate models on spaces of stochastic input with arbitrary probability measure irrespective of the mutual dependencies between individual components of the random inputs and the analytical form. The present Data-driven Sparsity-enhancing Rotation for Arbitrary Randomness (DSRAR) framework includes a data-driven construction of multivariate polynomial basis for arbitrary mutually dependent probability measure and a sparsity enhancement rotation procedure. This sparsity-enhancing rotation method was initially proposed in our previous work [1] for Gaussian density distributions, which may not be feasible for non-Gaussian distributions due to the loss of orthogonality after the rotation. To remedy such diculties, we developed a new data-driven approach to construct orthonormal polynomials for polynomials for arbitrary mutually dependent (amdP) randomness, ensuring the constructed basis maintains the orthogonality/near-orthogonality with respect to the density of the rotated random vector, where directly applying the regular polynomial chaos including arbitrary polynomial chaos (aPC) [2] shows limitations due to the assumption of the mutual independence between the components of the random inputs. The developed DSRAR framework leads to accurate recovery, with only limited training data, of a sparse representation of the target functions. The eectiveness of our method is demonstrated in challenging problems such as PDEs and realistic molecular systems within high-dimensional conformational space (O(10)) where the underlying density is implicitly represented by a large collection of sample data, as well as systems with explicitly given non-Gaussian probabilistic measures.

Lei, Huan↗

Bayesian soft X-ray tomography using non-stationary Gaussian Processes

In this study, a Bayesian based non-stationary Gaussian Process (GP) method for the inference of soft X-ray emissivity distribution along with its associated uncertainties has been developed. For the investigation of equilibrium condition and fast magnetohydrodynamic behaviors in nuclear fusion plasmas, it is of importance to infer, especially in the plasma center, spatially resolved soft X-ray profiles from a limited number of noisy line integral measurements. For this ill-posed inversion problem, Bayesian probability theory can provide a posterior probability distribution over all possible solutions under given model assumptions. Specifically, the use of a non-stationary GP to model the emission allows the model to adapt to the varying length scales of the underlying diffusion process. In contrast to other conventional methods, the prior regularization is realized in a probability form which enhances the capability of uncertainty analysis, in consequence, scientists who concern the reliability of their results will benefit from it. Under the assumption of normally distributed noise, the posterior distribution evaluated at a discrete number of points becomes a multivariate normal distribution whose mean and covariance are analytically available, making inversions and calculation of uncertainty fast. Additionally, the hyper-parameters embedded in the model assumption can be optimized through a Bayesian Occam's Razor formalism and thereby automatically adjust the model complexity. This method is shown to produce convincing reconstructions and good agreements with independently calculated results from the Maximum Entropy and Equilibrium-Based Iterative Tomography Algorithm methods.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Scale-dependent bias from the reconstruction of non-Gaussian distributions

Primordial non-Gaussianity introduces a scale-dependent variation in the clustering of density peaks corresponding to rare objects. This variation, parametrized by the bias, is investigated on scales where a linear perturbation theory is sufficiently accurate. The bias is obtained directly in real space by comparing the one- and two-point probability distributions of density fluctuations. We show that these distributions can be reconstructed using a bivariate Edgeworth series, presented here up to an arbitrarily high order. The Edgeworth formalism is shown to be well-suited for ''local'' cubic-order non-Gaussianity parametrized by g{sub NL}. We show that a strong scale dependence in the bias can be produced by g{sub NL} of order 10{sup 5}, consistent with cosmic microwave background constraints. On a separation length of {approx}100 Mpc, current constraints on g{sub NL} still allow the bias for the most massive clusters to be enhanced by 20-30% of the Gaussian value. We further examine the bias as a function of mass scale, and also explore the relationship between the clustering and the abundance of massive clusters in the presence of g{sub NL}. We explain why the Edgeworth formalism, though technically challenging, is a very powerful technique for constraining high-order non-Gaussianity with large-scale structures.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Stochastic Growth Theory of Spatially-Averaged Distributions of Langmuir Fields in Earth's Foreshock

Langmuir-like waves in the foreshock of Earth are characteristically bursty and irregular, and are the subject of a number of recent studies. Averaged over the foreshock, it is observed that the probability distribution is power-law P(bar)(log E) in the wave field E with the bar denoting this averaging over position, In this paper it is shown that stochastic growth theory (SGT) can explain a power-law spatially-averaged distributions P(bar)(log E), when the observed power-law variations of the mean and standard deviation of log E with position are combined with the log normal statistics predicted by SGT at each location.

Boshuizen, Christopher R.↗

Chemomechanical weakening of muscovite quantified with in situ liquid nanoindentation

Abstract Chemomechanical weakening of layered phyllosilicate muscovite mica was studied as a function of chemical environment via in situ liquid-nanoindentation under four conditions (dry, deionized water, and two NaCl solutions of different pH). While traditional indentation analyses of layered materials with extreme mechanical anisotropy have been limited due to displacement bursts (pop-ins), here the bursts were used as proxies for delamination, fracture, and spalling events. Since displacement bursts during an indent represent a stochastic process, 120 indents were conducted for each condition to generate statistically significant amounts of data. In total, over 9000 bursts were assessed using a load–displacement threshold criterion, classifying this as a high-throughput nanoscale fracture technique. For each burst, initiation load, initiation displacement, plastic zone volume at initiation, and energy dissipation were analyzed. A power-law relationship between the burst load and burst energy was noted which separated the bursts into two continuous distributions: (1) bursts due only to the mechanics of the indent and (2) bursts due to both the mechanics of the indent and the environment. By using a cumulative probability distribution, it was found that the NaCl solutions decreased the minimum plastic zone volume necessary to initiate a displacement burst by an order of magnitude relative to the dry condition. Finally, the underlying mechanisms explaining the trends in initiation volume as a function of environment were discussed, with a focus on the chemomechanical degradation processes via chemical attack and cation exchange.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Topology Estimation using Graphical Models in Multi-Phase Power Distribution Grids

Power distribution grids are structurally operated radially, such that energized lines form a collection of trees with a substation at the root of each tree. The operational topology may change from time to time, however tracking these changes, even though important for the distribution grid operation and control, is hindered by limited real-time monitoring. This work develops a learning framework to reconstruct the radial operational structure of the distribution grid from synchronized voltage measurements. To detect operational lines our learning algorithm uses conditional independence tests for continuous random variables that is applicable to a wide class of probability distributions and Gaussian injections in particular. Furthermore, our algorithm applies to the practical case of unbalanced three-phase power flow. The performance is validated on AC power flow simulations over three phase IEEE distribution grid test cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Long-time behavior of material-surface curvature in isotropic turbulence

The behavior at large times of the curvature of material elements in turbulence is investigated using Lagrangian velocity-gradient time series obtained from direct numerical simulations of isotropic turbulence. The main objectives are: to study the asymptotic behavior of the pdf curvature as a function of initial curvature and shape; and to establish whether the curvature of an initially plane material element goes to a stationary probability distribution. The evidence available in the literature about the asymptotic curvature-pdf of initially flat surfaces is ambiguous, and the conjecture is that it is quasi-stationary. In this work several material-element ensembles of different initial curvatures and shapes are studied. It is found that, at long times the moments of the logarithm of curvature are independent of the initial pdf of curvature. This, it is argued, supports the view that the curvature attains a stationary distribution at long times. It is also shown that, irrespective of initial shape or curvature, the shape of any material element at long times is cylindrical with a high probability.

Girimaji, S. S.↗

Adaptive hyperparameter updating for training restricted Boltzmann machines on quantum annealers

Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) have been proposed for developing neural networks for a variety of unsupervised machine learning applications such as image recognition, drug discovery, and materials design. The Boltzmann probability distribution is used as a model to identify network parameters by optimizing the likelihood of predicting an output given hidden states trained on available data. Training such networks often requires sampling over a large probability space that must be approximated during gradient based optimization. Quantum annealing has been proposed as a means to search this space more efficiently which has been experimentally investigated on D-Wave hardware. D-Wave implementation requires selection of an effective inverse temperature or hyperparameter (β) within the Boltzmann distribution which can strongly influence optimization. Here, we show how this parameter can be estimated as a hyperparameter applied to D-Wave hardware during neural network training by maximizing the likelihood or minimizing the Shannon entropy. We find both methods improve training RBMs based upon D-Wave hardware experimental validation on an image recognition problem. Neural network image reconstruction errors are evaluated using Bayesian uncertainty analysis which illustrate more than an order magnitude lower image reconstruction error using the maximum likelihood over manually optimizing the hyperparameter. The maximum likelihood method is also shown to out-perform minimizing the Shannon entropy for image reconstruction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

THE NONLINEAR BIASING OF THE zCOSMOS GALAXIES UP TO z {approx} 1 FROM THE 10k SAMPLE

We use the zCOSMOS galaxy overdensity field to study the biasing of galaxies in the COSMOS field. By comparing the probability distribution function of the galaxy density contrast {delta}{sub g} to the lognormal approximation of the mass density contrast {delta}, we obtain the mean biasing function b({delta}, z, R) between the galaxy and matter overdensity fields and its second moments b-hat and b-tilde. Over the redshift interval 0.4 < z < 1 the conditional mean function ({delta}{sub g}|{delta}) = b({delta}, z, R){delta} is of a characteristic shape, requiring nonlinear biasing in the most overdense and underdense regions. Taking into account the uncertainties due to cosmic variance, we do not detect any significant evolution in the ({delta}{sub g}|{delta}) function, but we do detect a significant redshift evolution in the linear biasing parameter b-hat from 1.23 {+-} 0.11 at z {approx} 0.55 to 1.62 {+-} 0.14 at z {approx} 0.75, for a luminosity-complete sample of M{sub B} < -20 - z galaxies. The b-hat parameter does not change significantly with smoothing scale between 8 and 12 h{sup -1} Mpc, but increases systematically with luminosity (at 2{sigma}-3{sigma} significance between the M{sub B} < -20.5 - z and M{sub B} < -20 - z samples). The nonlinearity parameter b-tilde/b-hat is offset from unity by at most 2%, with an uncertainty of the same order. The b-tilde / b-hat parameter does not show any significant redshift evolution, dependence on the smoothing scale or on the luminosity. By matching the linear bias of galaxies to the halo bias, we infer that the M{sub B} < -20 - z galaxies reside in dark matter halos with a characteristic mass of about (2.6 - 5.6) x 10{sup 12} M{sub sun} with a small dependence on the adopted bias-mass relation. Our detailed error analysis and comparison with previous studies lead us to conclude that cosmic variance is the main contributor to the differences in the linear bias measured from different surveys. While our results support the general picture of biased galaxy formation up to z {approx} 1, the fine-tuning of the galaxy formation models is still limited by the restrictions of the current spectroscopic surveys at these redshifts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SU-E-J-115: Using Markov Chain Modeling to Elucidate Patterns in Breast Cancer Metastasis Over Time and Space

Purpose: Traditionally, breast cancer metastasis is described as a process wherein cancer cells spread from the breast to multiple organ systems via hematogenous and lymphatic routes. Mapping organ specific patterns of cancer spread over time is essential to understanding metastatic progression. In order to better predict sites of metastases, here we demonstrate modeling of the patterned migration of metastasis. Methods: We reviewed the clinical history of 453 breast cancer patients from Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center who were non-metastatic at diagnosis but developed metastasis over time. We used the variables of organ site of metastases as well as time to create a Markov chain model of metastasis. We illustrate the probabilities of metastasis occurring at a given anatomic site together with the probability of spread to additional sites. Results: Based on the clinical histories of 453 breast cancer patients who developed metastasis, we have learned (i) how to create the Markov transition matrix governing the probabilities of cancer progression from site to site; (ii) how to create a systemic network diagram governing disease progression modeled as a random walk on a directed graph; (iii) how to classify metastatic sites as ‘sponges’ that tend to only receive cancer cells or ‘spreaders’ that receive and release them; (iv) how to model the time-scales of disease progression as a Weibull probability distribution function; (v) how to perform Monte Carlo simulations of disease progression; and (vi) how to interpret disease progression as an entropy-increasing stochastic process. Conclusion: Based on our modeling, metastatic spread may follow predictable pathways. Mapping metastasis not simply by organ site, but by function as either a ‘spreader’ or ‘sponge’ fundamentally reframes our understanding of metastatic processes. This model serves as a novel platform from which we may integrate the evolving genomic landscape that drives cancer metastasis. PS-OC Trans-Network Project Grant Award for “Data Assimilation and ensemble statistical forecasting methods applied to the MSKCC longitudinal metastatic breast cancer cohort.”.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Gamma-ray constraints on Na-22 yields in nova explosions

The longitudinal distribution of diffuse 1.275 MeV emission produced by the decay of interstellar Na-22 generated by a limited class of energetic novae-accreting ONeMg white dwarfs is modeled. The probability distributions for the locations of disk novae are derived as functions of Galactocentric cylindrical coordinates. The occurrence rate for novae of all classes in the Galactic disk is about 30/yr. An occurrence rate of about 16/yr is found for spheroid novae of all classes. By comparing these simulation results with HEAO 3 upper limits on diffuse 1.275 MeV emission, upper limits of (3-5.6) x 10 to the -7th solar mass are determined for the mean Na-22 yield for energetic novae generated by accreting ONeMg white dwarfs. These Na-22 limits constrain future models of explosive nucleosynthesis in energetic nova explosions.

Higdon, J. C.↗

A stochastic analysis of steady and transient heat conduction in random media using a homogenization approach

We present a new stochastic analysis for steady and transient one-dimensional heat conduction problem based on the homogenization approach. Thermal conductivity is assumed to be a random field K consisting of random variables of a total number N. Both steady and transient solutions T are expressed in terms of the homogenized solution (symbol) and its spatial derivatives (equation), where homogenized solution (symbol) is obtained by solving the homogenized equation with effective thermal conductivity. Both mean and variance of stochastic solutions can be obtained analytically for K field consisting of independent identically distributed (i.i.d) random variables. The mean and variance of T are shown to be dependent only on the mean and variance of these i.i.d variables, not the particular form of probability distribution function of i.i.d variables. Variance of temperature field T can be separated into two contributions: the ensemble contribution (through the homogenized temperature (symbol)); and the configurational contribution (through the random variable Ln(x)Ln(x)). The configurational contribution is shown to be proportional to the local gradient of (symbol). Large uncertainty of T field was found at locations with large gradient of (symbol) due to the significant configurational contributions at these locations. Numerical simulations were implemented based on a direct Monte Carlo method and good agreement is obtained between numerical Monte Carlo results and the proposed stochastic analysis.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Lunar Outpost Life Support Architecture Study Based on a High Mobility Exploration Scenario

As scenarios for lunar surface exploration and habitation continue to evolve within NASA s Constellation program, so must studies of optimal life support system architectures and technologies. This paper presents results of a life support architecture study based on a 2009 NASA scenario known as Scenario 12. Scenario 12 represents a consolidation of ideas from earlier NASA scenarios and includes an outpost near the Lunar South Pole comprised of three larger fixed surface elements and four attached pressurized rovers. The scenario places a high emphasis on surface mobility, with planning assuming that all four crewmembers spend roughly 50% of the time away from the outpost on 3-14 day excursions in two of the pressurized rovers. Some of the larger elements can also be mobilized for longer duration excursions. This emphasis on mobility poses a significant challenge for a regenerative life support system in terms of cost-effective waste collection and resource recovery across multiple elements, including rovers with very constrained infrastructure resources. The current study considers pressurized rovers as part of a distributed outpost life support architecture in both stand-alone and integrated configurations. A range of architectures are examined reflecting different levels of closure and distributed functionality. Different lander propellant scavenging options are also considered involving either initial conversion of residual oxygen and hydrogen propellants to water or initial direct oxygen scavenging. Monte Carlo simulations are used to assess the sensitivity of results to volatile high-impact mission variables, including the quantity of residual lander propellants available for scavenging, the fraction of crew time away from the outpost on excursions, total extravehicular activity hours, and habitat leakage. Architectures are evaluated by estimating surpluses or deficits of water and oxygen per 180-day mission and differences in fixed and 10-year-total equivalent system mass (ESM) relative to a reference case. Results are presented based on current assumptions for Scenario 12 and based on Monte Carlo simulations with assumed probability distributions for the high-impact mission variables. The calculated probability of no water or oxygen resupply from Monte Carlo simulations provides a quantitative measure of system robustness that can be used for cost/benefit analyses to identify leading architecture candidates. Areas of technology improvement that are likely to have a significant impact are also suggested.

Lange, Kevin E.↗

Fission fragment decay simulations with the CGMF code

The CGMF code implements the Hauser-Feshbach statistical nuclear reaction model to follow the de-excitation of fission fragments by successive emissions of prompt neutrons and γ rays. The Monte Carlo technique is used to facilitate the analysis of complex distributions and correlations among the prompt fission observables. Starting from initial configurations for the fission fragments in mass, charge, kinetic energy, excitation energy, spin, and parity, Y(A,Z,KE,U,J,π), CGMF samples neutron and γ-ray probability distributions at each stage of the decay process, conserving energy, spin and parity. Nuclear structure and reaction input data from the RIPL3 library are used to describe fission fragment properties and decay probabilities. Characteristics of prompt fission neutrons, prompt fission γ rays, and independent fission yields can be studied consistently. Correlations in energy, angle and multiplicity among the emitted neutrons and γ rays can be easily analyzed as a function of the emitting fragments. Finally, in its current version, CGMF is limited to certain spontaneous fission reactions on Pu and Cf isotopes, as well as neutron-induced fission reactions up to 20 MeV on U, Np, and Pu isotopes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Binary populations in Milky Way satellite galaxies: Constraints from multi-epoch data in the Carina, Fornax, Sculptor, and Sextans dwarf spheroidal galaxies

We introduce a likelihood analysis of multi-epoch stellar line-of-sight velocities to constrain the binary fractions and binary period distributions of dwarf spheroidal galaxies. This method is applied to multi-epoch data from the Magellan/MMFS survey of the Carina, Fornax, Sculptor, and Sextans dSph galaxies, after applying a model for the measurement errors that accounts for binary orbital motion. We find that the Fornax, Sculptor, and Sextans dSphs are consistent with having binary populations similar to that of Milky Way field binaries to within 68% confidence limits, whereas the Carina dSph is remarkably deficient in binaries with periods less than ∼10 yr. If Carina is assumed to have a period distribution identical to that of the Milky Way field, its best-fit binary fraction is 0.14{sub −0.05}{sup +0.28}, and is constrained to be less than 0.5 at the 90% confidence level; thus it is unlikely to host a binary population identical to that of the Milky Way field. By contrast, the best-fit binary fraction of the combined sample of all four galaxies is 0.46{sub −0.09}{sup +0.13}, consistent with that of Milky Way field binaries. More generally, we infer probability distributions in binary fraction, mean orbital period, and dispersion of periods for each galaxy in the sample. Looking ahead to future surveys, we show that the allowed parameter space of binary fraction and period distribution parameters in dSphs will be narrowed significantly by a large multi-epoch survey. However, there is a degeneracy between the parameters that is unlikely to be broken unless the measurement error is of order ∼0.1 km s{sup –1} or smaller, presently attainable only by a high-resolution spectrograph.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Optimum space shuttle launch times relative to natural environment

The probabilities of favorable and unfavorable weather conditions for launch and landing of the STS under different criteria were computed for every three hours on a yearly basis using 14 years of weather data. These temporal probability distributions were considered for three sets of weather criteria encompassing benign, moderate and severe weather conditions for both Kennedy Space Center and for Edwards Air Force Base. In addition, the conditional probabilities were computed for unfavorable weather conditions occurring after a delay which may or may not be due to weather conditions. Also for KSC, the probabilities of favorable landing conditions at various times after favorable launch conditions have prevailed. The probabilities were computed to indicate the significance of each weather element to the overall result.

King, R. L.↗

Constraints on Black Hole Spin in a Sample of Broad Iron Line AGN

We present a uniform X-ray spectral analysis of nine type-1 active galactic nuclei (AGN) that have been previously found to harbor relativistically broadened iron emission lines. We show that the need for relativistic effects in the spectrum is robust even when one includes continuum "reflection" from the accretion disk. We then proceed to model these relativistic effects in order to constrain the spin of the supermassive black holes in these AGN. Our principal assumption, supported by recent simulations of geometrically-thin accretion disks, is that no iron line emission (or any associated Xray reflection features) can originate from the disk within the innermost stable circular orbit. Under this assumption, which tends to lead to constraints in the form of lower limits on the spin parameter, we obtain non-trivial spin constraints on five AGN. The spin parameters of these sources range from moderate (a approximates 0.6) to high (a > 0.96). Our results allow, for the first time, an observational constraint on the spin distribution function of local supermassive black holes. Parameterizing this as a power-law in dimensionless spin parameter (f(a) varies as absolute value of (a) exp zeta), we present the probability distribution for zeta implied by our results. Our results suggest 90% and 95% confidence limits of zeta > -0.09 and zeta > -0.3 respectively.

Brenneman, Laura W.↗

TURBULENCE-GENERATED PROTON-SCALE STRUCTURES IN THE TERRESTRIAL MAGNETOSHEATH

Recent results of numerical magnetohydrodynamic simulations suggest that in collisionless space plasmas, turbulence can spontaneously generate thin current sheets. These coherent structures can partially explain the intermittency and the non-homogenous distribution of localized plasma heating in turbulence. In this Letter, Cluster multi-point observations are used to investigate the distribution of magnetic field discontinuities and the associated small-scale current sheets in the terrestrial magnetosheath downstream of a quasi-parallel bow shock. It is shown experimentally, for the first time, that the strongest turbulence-generated current sheets occupy the long tails of probability distribution functions associated with extremal values of magnetic field partial derivatives. During the analyzed one-hour time interval, about a hundred strong discontinuities, possibly proton-scale current sheets, were observed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗