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NASA NTRS2018

The Effects of Uncertainty in Initial CME Input Parameters on Deflection, Rotation, Bz, and Arrival Time Predictions

Understanding the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) requires knowing if and when they will impact and their properties upon impact. Of particular importance is the strength of a CME's southward magnetic field component (Bz ). Kay et al. (2013, https://doi:10.1088/0004-637X/775/1/5, 2015, https://doi:10.1088/948 0004-637X/805/2/168) have shown that the simplified analytic model Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT) can reproduce the deflection and rotation of CMEs. Kay, Gopalswamy, Reinard, and Opher (2017, https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/835/2/117) introduced ForeCAT In situ Data Observer, which uses ForeCAT results to simulate magnetic field profiles. ForeCAT In situ Data Observer reproduces the in situ observations on roughly hourly time scales, suggesting that these models could be extremely useful for predictions of Bz . However, as with all models, both models are sensitive to their input parameters, which may not be precisely known for predictions. We explore this sensitivity using ensembles having small changes in the initial latitude, longitude, and orientation of the erupting CME. We explore the effects of different background magnetic field models and find that the changes in deflection and rotation resulting from the uncertainty in the initial parameters tend to exceed the changes from dierent magnetic backgrounds. The range in the in situ proles tends to scale with the range in the deflection and rotation. We also consider a simple arrival time model using ForeCAT results and nd an average absolute error of only 3 hr. We show that an uncertainty in the CME position of 8.1 ± 6.9 leads to variations of 6 hr in the arrival time. This measure depends strongly on the location of impact within the CME with the arrival time changing less for impacts near the nose.

Kay, Christina D.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Mapping the Predicted Solar Wind Hydrogen Flux in Lunar South Pole Craters

The solar wind hydrogen flux is mapped onto the topography of four lunar south pole craters; Shackleton, Haworth, Shoemaker and Faustini. Using altimetry data from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, we apply an analytic plasma model to map the hydrogen flux onto the surface, time-averaged over a lunar rotation cycle. We present a series of maps including the average flux, geomagnetic modulation, and ion flow energy. These results are intended to inform further studies of dynamic lunar surface processes, such as volatile implantation, sputtering,and weathering. As an example, we also present a map of a surface ice sheet lifetime based on ion sputtering.

William M Farrell↗

NASA NTRS2003

High-Fidelity Micromechanics Model Enhanced for Multiphase Particulate Materials

This 3-year effort involves the development of a comprehensive micromechanics model and a related computer code, capable of accurately estimating both the average response and the local stress and strain fields in the individual phases, assuming both elastic and inelastic behavior. During the first year (fiscal year 2001) of the investigation, a version of the model called the High-Fidelity Generalized Method of Cells (HFGMC) was successfully completed for the thermo-inelastic response of continuously reinforced multiphased materials with arbitrary periodic microstructures (refs. 1 and 2). The model s excellent predictive capability for both the macroscopic response and the microlevel stress and strain fields was demonstrated through comparison with exact analytical and finite element solutions. This year, HFGMC was further extended in two technologically significant ways. The first enhancement entailed the incorporation of fiber/matrix debonding capability into the two-dimensional version of HFGMC for modeling the response of unidirectionally reinforced composites such as titanium matrix composites, which exhibit poor fiber/matrix bond. Comparison with experimental data validated the model s predictive capability. The second enhancement entailed further generalization of HFGMC to three dimensions to enable modeling the response of particulate-reinforced (discontinuous) composites in the elastic material behavior domain. Next year, the three-dimensional version will be generalized to encompass inelastic effects due to plasticity, viscoplasticity, and damage, as well as coupled electromagnetothermomechanical (including piezoelectric) effects.

Pindera, Marek-Jerzy↗

NASA NTRS1978

Definition and effect of chemical properties of surfaces in friction, wear, and lubrication

Much of the data relative to the properties of surfaces that have been used in the past in analyzing, interpreting and predicting adhesion, friction and wear behavior for solid surfaces is now suspect. With the advent of analytical surface tools, careful and complete characterization of surfaces indicate that very frequently the outermost layers of solid surfaces are markedly different in chemistry than had been previously thought. These layers, as will be shown, are extremely important in adhesion, friction and wear behavior. Some of the properties to be discussed in the paper relative to their role in adhesion, friction, wear and lubrication will include: (1) adsorption, both physical and chemical; (2) orientation of the solid as well as the lubricant; (3) surface energy; (4) surface segregation; (5) surface versus bulk metallurgical effects; (6) electronic nature of the surface; and (7) bonding mechanisms.

Buckley, D. H.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Height dependence of spread F bubble drift velocities

Vertical bubble velocities in equatorial spread F have been investigated analytically by Ott (1978), Osakow and Chaturvedi (1978), all of whom found a proportionality of the vertical velocity to bubble depletion density. The paper presents radar data from two equatorial sites which support theoretical predictions that vertical drift velocities of spread F bubbles increase with height on the bottomside of the F layer. This increase is shown to result from the proportionality of bubble drift velocity to density depletion amplitude, which itself increases with height. The measured rate of increase is found to be dU/dh equals about 2 m/s km. It is concluded that this is consistent with numerical simulation results within a factor of 2.

Hudson, M. K.↗

NASA NTRS1983

The performance and application of high speed long life LH2 hybrid bearings for reusable rocket engine turbomachinery

Data are presented for two different experimental programs which were conducted to investigate the characteristics of a hybrid (hydrostatic/ball) bearing operating in liquid hydrogen. The same bearing design was used in both programs. Analytical predictions were made of the bearing characteristics and are compared with the experimental results when possible. The first program used a bearing tester to determine the steady state, transient, and cyclic life characteristics of the bearing over a wide range of operating conditions. The second program demonstrated the feasibility of applying hybrid bearings to an actual high speed turbopump by retrofitting and then testing an existing liquid hydrogen turbopump with the bearings.

Hannum, N. P.↗

NASA NTRS1983

The performance and application of high speed long life LH2 hybrid bearings for reusable rocket engine turbomachinery

Hannum, N. P.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Three-dimensional water droplet trajectory code validation using an ECS inlet geometry

A task was completed under NASA contract, the purpose of which was to validate a three-dimensional particle trajectory code with existing test data obtained from the Icing Research Tunnel at NASA-LeRC. The geometry analyzed was a flush-mounted environmental control system (ECS) inlet. Results of the study indicated good overall agreement between analytical predictions and wind tunnel test results at most flight conditions. Difficulties were encountered when predicting impingement characteristics of the droplets less than or equal to 13.5 microns in diameter. This difficulty was corrected to some degree by modifications to a module of the particle trajectory code; however, additional modifications will be required to accurately predict impingement characteristics of smaller droplets.

Breer, Marlin D.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Secondary Neutron Production from Space Radiation Interactions: Advances in Model and Experimental Data Base Development

For humans engaged in long-duration missions in deep space or near-Earth orbit, the risk from exposure to galactic and solar cosmic rays is an important factor in the design of spacecraft, spacesuits, and planetary bases. As cosmic rays are transported through shielding materials and human tissue components, a secondary radiation field is produced. Neutrons are an important component of that secondary field, especially in thickly-shielded environments. Calculations predict that 50% of the dose-equivalent in a lunar or Martian base comes from neutrons, and a recent workshop held at the Johnson Space Center concluded that as much as 30% of the dose in the International Space Station may come from secondary neutrons. Accelerator facilities provide a means for measuring the effectiveness of various materials in their ability to limit neutron production, using beams and energies that are present in cosmic radiation. The nearly limitless range of beams, energies, and target materials that are present in space, however, means that accelerator-based experiments will not provide a complete database of cross sections and thick-target yields that are necessary to plan and design long-duration missions. As such, accurate nuclear models of neutron production are needed, as well as data sets that can be used to compare with, and verify, the predictions from such models. Improvements in a model of secondary neutron production from heavy-ion interactions are presented here, along with the results from recent accelerator-based measurements of neutron-production cross sections. An analytical knockout-ablation model capable of predicting neutron production from high-energy hadron-hadron interactions (both nucleon-nucleus and nucleus-nucleus collisions) has been previously developed. In the knockout stage, the collision between two nuclei result in the emission of one or more nucleons from the projectile and/or target. The resulting projectile and target remnants, referred to as prefragments, then decay by the emission of nucleons, composites, and gamma rays. Recent improvements to the model have incorporated coalescence effects, which effectively tie up single nucleons in the formation of composites during final-state interactions. Comparison of the improved model s predictions with neutron production data near 0 deg in the CA-40+ H reaction at 357 and 565 MeV/nucleon show marked improvement.

Heilbronn, Lawrence H.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Biological Research and Space Health Enabled by Machine Learning to Support Deep Space Missions

A key science goal of the NASA “Moon to Mars” campaign is to understand how biology responds to the Lunar, Martian, and deep space environments in order to advance fundamental knowledge, reduce risk, and support safe, productive human space missions. Through the powerful emerging approaches of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), a paradigm shift has begun in biomedical science and engineered astronaut health systems, to enable Earth independence and autonomy of mission operations. Here we present an overview of AI/ML architecture to support deep space mission goals, developed with leaders in the field. First, we focus on the fundamental biological research that supports our understanding of physiological responses to spaceflight, and we describe current efforts to support AI/ML research including data standardization and data engineering through maximally open and FAIR (findable, accessible, interoperable, reusable) databases and the generation of AI-ready datasets for reuse and analysis. We also discuss remote data management frameworks for research data as well as environmental and health data that are generated during deep space missions. We highlight several research projects that leverage data standardization and management for fundamental biological discovery to uncover the complex effects of space travel on living systems. Next, we provide an overview of cutting-edge AI/ML approaches that can be integrated to support remote monitoring and analysis during deep space missions, including generative models and large language models to learn the underlying biomedical patterns and predict outcomes or answer questions during off world medical scenarios. We also describe current AI/ML methods to support this research and monitoring through automated cloud-based labs which enable limited human intervention and closed-loop experimentation in remote settings. These labs could support mission autonomy by analyzing environmental data streams, and would be facilitated through in situ analytics capabilities to avoid sending large raw data files through low bandwidth communications. Finally, in the context of deep space missions with limited communications or access to medical advice from Earth, we describe a solution for integrated, real-time mission biomonitoring across hierarchical levels from continuous environmental monitoring, to wearables and point-of-care devices, to molecular and physiological monitoring. We introduce a precision space health system that will ensure that the future of space health is predictive, preventative, participatory and personalized.

artificial intelligence↗

NASA NTRS2003

Test Data Analysis of a Spray Bar Zero-Gravity Liquid Hydrogen Vent System for Upper Stages

To support development of a zero-gravity pressure control capability for liquid hydrogen (LH2), a series of thermodynamic venting system (TVS) tests was conducted in 1996 and 1998 using the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) multipurpose hydrogen test bed (MHTB). These tests were performed with ambient heat leaks =20 and 50 W for tank fill levels of 90%, 50%, and 25%. TVS performance testing revealed that the spray bar was highly effective in providing tank pressure control within a 7-kPa band (131-138 Wa), and complete destratification of the liquid and the ullage was achieved with all test conditions. Seven of the MHTB tests were correlated with the TVS performance analytical model. The tests were selected to encompass the range of tank fill levels, ambient heat leaks, operational modes, and ullage pressurants. The TVS model predicted ullage pressure and temperature and bulk liquid saturation pressure and temperature obtained from the TVS model were compared with the test data. During extended self-pressurization periods, following tank lockup, the model predicted faster pressure rise rates than were measured. However, once the system entered the cyclic mixing/venting operational mode, the modeled and measured data were quite similar.

Hedayat, A.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Curvilinear Displacement Transfer Functions for Deformed Shape Predictions of Curved Structures Using Distributed Surface Strains

Curvilinear Displacement Transfer Functions were formulated for deformed shape predictions of different curved structures using surface strains. The embedded curved beam (depth-wise cross section of a curved structure along a surface strain-sensing line) was discretized into multiple small domains, with domain junctures matching the strain-sensing stations. Thus, the surface strain distribution can be described with a piecewise linear or a piecewise nonlinear function. The discrete approach enabled piecewise integrations of a curvature-strain differential equation for the embedded curved beam to yield closed-form Curvilinear Displacement Transfer Functions, which are written in terms of embedded curved-beam geometrical parameters and surface strains. By inputting the surface strain data, the Curvilinear Displacement Transfer Functions can transform surface strains into deflections along each embedded curved beam for mapping out the overall structural deformed shapes. The finite-element method was used to analytically generate the surface strains of the curved beams. The deformed shape prediction accuracies were then determined by comparing the theoretical deflections with the finite-element-generated deflections, which were used as yardsticks. By introducing the correction factors in simple mathematical forms, the Curvilinear Displacement Transfer Functions can be quite accurate for shape predictions of different curved-beam structures ranging from limit case of straight beam up to semicircular curved beam.

Ko, William L.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Supersonic laminar base pressure, heat-transfer, and upstream influence correlations for small steps

Some results of the application of a unified theory of small disturbances in nonuniform high-speed boundary layers to the small-step problem for the case of supersonic laminar nonadiabatic flow are described. Comparisons with experimental data are given which show good agreement in a variety of physical features, including useful new base pressure and heat-transfer correlation relations. Using a small perturbation approach, an analytical theory is developed that predicts the steady-state pressure, temperature, and heat-transfer disturbance fields including suction or blowing through the step. Particular emphasis is placed on the important effects of the highly nonuniform flow across the boundary layer, lateral pressure gradients, and the upstream influence associated with viscous-inviscid interaction. Approximate analytical expressions for the wall pressure, skin friction, and heat-transfer perturbations and upstream influence distance are derived by a Fourier transformation approach.

Inger, G. R.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Analytical and experimental vibration studies of a 1/8-scale shuttle orbiter

Natural frequencies and mode shapes for four symmetric vibration modes and four antisymmetric modes are compared with predictions based on NASTRAN finite-element analyses. Initial predictions gave poor agreement with test data; an extensive investigation revealed that the major factors influencing agreement were out-of-plane imperfections in fuselage panels and a soft fin-fuselage connection. Computations with a more refined analysis indicated satisfactory frequency predictions for all modes studied, within 11 percent of experimental values.

Pinson, L. D.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Loss model for off-design performance analysis of radial turbines with pivoting-vane, variable-area stators

An off-design performance loss model is developed for variable-area (pivoted vane) radial turbines. The variation in stator loss with stator area is determined by a viscous loss model while the variation in rotor loss due to stator area variation (for no stator end-clearance gap) is determined through analytical matching of experimental data. An incidence loss model is also based on matching of the experimental data. A stator vane end-clearance leakage model is developed and sample calculations are made to show the predicted effects of stator vane end-clearance leakage on performance.

Meitner, P. L.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Comparison of closed loop model with flight test results

An analytic technique capable of predicting the landing characteristics of proposed aircraft configurations in the early stages of design was developed. In this analysis, a linear pilot-aircraft closed loop model was evaluated using experimental data generated with the NT-33 variable stability in-flight simulator. The pilot dynamics are modeled as inner and outer servo loop closures around aircraft pitch attitude, and altitude rate-of-change respectively. The landing flare maneuver is of particular interest as recent experience with military and other highly augmented vehicles shows this task to be relatively demanding, and potentially a critical design point. A unique feature of the pilot model is the incorporation of an internal model of the pilot's desired flight path for the flare maneuver.

George, F. L.↗

NASA NTRS1982

KC-135 winglet program overview

A joint NASA/USAF program was conducted to accomplish the following objectives: (1) evaluate the benefits that could be achieved from the application of winglets to KC-135 aircraft; and (2) determine the ability of wind tunnel tests and analytical analysis to predict winglet characteristics. The program included wind-tunnel development of a test winglet configuration; analytical predictions of the changes to the aircraft resulting from the application of the test winglet; and finally, flight tests of the developed configuration. Pressure distribution, loads, stability and control, buffet, fuel mileage, and flutter data were obtained to fulfill the objectives of the program.

Barber, M. R.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Demonstration of transparent solar array module design

This report discusses the design, development, fabrication and testing of IR transparent solar array modules. Three modules, consisting of a baseline design using back surface reflector cells, and two modules using gridded back contact, IR transparent cells, were subjected to vacuum thermal balance testing to verify analytical predictions of lower operating emperature and increased efficiency. As a result of this test program, LMSC has verified that a significant degree of IR transparency can be designed into a flexible solar array. Test data correlates with both steady state and transient thermal analysis.

Pack, G. J.↗