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At least 775 records · Page 43

Determining the source characteristics of explosions near the Earth's surface

We present a method to determine the source characteristics of explosions near the airearth interface. The technique is an extension of the regional amplitude envelope method and now accounts for the reduction of seismic amplitudes as the depth of the explosion approaches the free surface and less energy is coupled into the ground. We first apply the method to the Humming Roadrunner series of shallow explosions in New Mexico where the yields and depths are known. From these tests, we find an appreciation of knowing the material properties for both source coupling/excitation and the free surface effect. Although there is the expected tradeoff between depth and yield due to coupling effects, the estimated yields are generally close to the known values when the depth is constrained to the free surface. We then apply the method to a regionally recorded explosion in Syria. We estimate an explosive yield less than the 60 tons claimed by sources in the open press. The modifications to the method allow us to apply the technique to new classes of events, but we will need a better understanding of explosion source models and properties of additional geologic materials.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Supplemental Environmental Baseline Survey for Proposed Land Use Permit Modification for Expansion of the Dynamic Explosive Test Site (DETS) 9940 Main Complex Parking Lot

The “subject property” is comprised of a parcel of land within the Kirtland Military Reservation, Bernalillo County, New Mexico, as shown on the map in Appendix B of this document. The land requirement for the parking lot addition to the 9940 Main Complex is approximately 2.7 acres. The scope of this Supplemental Environmental Baseline Survey (SEBS) is for the parking lot addition land transfer only. For details on the original 9940 Main Complex see Environmental Baseline Survey, Land Use Permit Request for the 9940 Complex PERM/0-KI-00-0001, August 21, 2003, and for details on the 9940 Complex Expansion see Environmental Baseline Survey, Proposed Land Use Permit Expansion for 9940 DETS Complex, June 24, 2009. The 2.7-acre parcel of land for the new parking lot, which is the subject of this EBS (also referred to as the “subject property”), is adjacent to the southwest boundary of the original 12.3- acre 9940 Main Complex. No testing is known to have taken place on the subject property site. The only activity known to have taken place was the burial of overhead utility lines in 2014. Adjacent to the subject property, the 9940 Main Complex was originally a 12.3-acre site used by the Department of Energy (DOE) under a land use permit from the United States Air Force (USAF). Historical use of the site, dating from 1964, included arming, fusing, and firing of explosives and testing of explosives systems components. In the late 1970s and early 1980s experiments at the 9940 Main Complex shifted toward reactor safety issues. From 1983 to 1988, fuel coolant interaction (FCI) experiments were conducted, as were experiments with conventional high explosives (HE). Today, the land is used for training of the Nuclear Emergency Response community and for research on energetic materials. In 2009, the original complex was expanded to include four additional 20-acre areas: 9940 Training South, 9940 Training East, T-Range 6, and Training West Landing Zone. The proposed use of the subject property is for the purpose of adding a parking lot to serve the increase in customer vehicles that is occurring as the 9940 Main Complex is more heavily utilized, and as the 2009 Expansion areas come online as operational training facilities. The subject property would be used only for parking, not for testing or training activities. The parking lot would have a gravel surface. Current and future work at the 9940 Main Complex involves arming, fuzing, and firing of explosives and the testing of explosive systems components in both terrestrial and aquatic settings. It also involves specialized training activities for a variety of first responder customers, both DOE and non-DOE agencies. The approach was to perform a document search, supplemented by a visual site inspection, to identify potential environmental contamination associated with the property. Factors evaluated included hazardous substances; petroleum products and derivatives; environmental restoration sites; areas of concern; storage tanks; oil/water separators; grease traps; wash racks; waste tanks; pesticides; military munitions/ordnance; medical or bio-hazardous waste; radioactive waste; solid/municipal waste; indoor air quality; groundwater; wastewater treatment, collection, and disposal/discharge; drinking water quality; utilities; asbestos; polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs); radon; lead-based paint; cultural resources; floodplains; and natural/biological resources. Each of these factors is evaluated separately in Section 5, Findings for Subject Property. The property categorization for this subject property would be considered Category 1- “An area or real property where no storage, release, or disposal of hazardous substances or petroleum products or their derivatives has occurred into the environment or structures or disposed on the subject property (including no migration of these substances from adjacent properties).” There appears to be sufficient information to categorize the subject property and it appears that no further effort needs to be made to obtain additional information. There are no findings of an adverse nature on the subject property itself or from adjacent properties. It is recommended that the proposed transfer of the subject property from the USAF to DOE proceed.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Observations of VOC Emissions and Photochemical Products over US Oil- and Gas-Producing Regions Using High-Resolution H3O+ CIMS (PTR-ToF-MS)

VOCs (Volatile Organic Compounds) related to oil and gas extraction operations in the United States were measured by H3O (sup plus) chemical ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (H3O (sup plus) ToFCIMS/PTR-ToF-MS (Time of Flight Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometry/Proton Transfer Reaction-Time of Flight-Mass Spectroscopy) from aircraft during the Shale Oil and Natural Gas Nexus (SONGNEX) campaign in March-April 2015. This work presents an overview of major VOC species measured in nine oil- and gas-producing regions, and a more detailed analysis of H3O (sup plus) ToF-CIMS measurements in the Permian Basin within Texas and New Mexico. Mass spectra are dominated by small photochemically produced oxygenates and compounds typically found in crude oil: aromatics, cyclic alkanes, and alkanes. Mixing ratios of aromatics were frequently as high as those measured downwind of large urban areas. In the Permian, the H3O (sup plus) ToF-CIMS measured a number of underexplored or previously unreported species, including aromatic and cycloalkane oxidation products, nitrogen heterocycles including pyrrole (C4H5N) and pyrroline (C4H7N), H2S, and a diamondoid (adamantane) or unusual monoterpene. We additionally assess the specificity of a number of ion masses resulting from H3O (sup plus) ion chemistry previously reported in the literature, including several new or alternate interpretations.

mass spectrometr↗

2D Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations of the Electrothermal Instability in Metallic Liners

The Virginia Tech (VT) Plasma Dynamics Laboratory Computational (PDCL) and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) are performing two dimensional (2D) simulations of the electrothermal instability (ETI) using the LLNL multi-physics code Ares. Ares is a multi-physics arbitrary–Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) code developed by LLNL and is of particular use in studying magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instabilities like the ETI due to its resistive MHD, magnetic diffusion, and radiative-hydrodynamics packages. Among its capabilities, it has the ability to model material strength, perform adaptive mesh refinement (AMR), and incorporate a wide variety of equations of state models and conductivity models. The 2D Ares simulation model created by VT-LLNL for studying the development and growth of the electrothermal instability has been configured with initial conditions based on the Mykonos Electrothermal Instability II (METI-II) experiments described by this grant and conducted by team members at the University of Nevada (UNR), the University of New Mexico (UNM), and Sandia National Laboratories. Previously, preliminary 2D Ares simulations of the ETI had been run to approximately 80ns. The rods in these simulations were initiated with sinusoidal perturbations at a similar order of magnitude to those measured on the aluminum rods used for the Mykonos experiment. This model has been improved by increasing the spatial resolution of the simulations and running the simulations further in time. In addition to the simulation run-times extending, the preliminary sinusoidal perturbation has been replaced with a perturbation derived from amplitude measurements by the experimental team, thereby correlating the simulation inputs better to the experimental runs. These new runs are capable of reaching 120ns of simulated time for the uncoated cases and to 200ns the 41 μm coated cases.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Causes of Interannual to Decadal Variability of Gila River Streamflow over the Past Century

Study region: The Gila River, New Mexico, is characterized by two peaks in streamflow: one in the winter-spring (December-May), and summer (August-September). The region is influenced both by Pacific SST variability as well as the North American Monsoon. Study focus: The mechanisms responsible for the variability of the winter-spring and summer streamflow peaks are investigated by correlation of streamflow with precipitation and sea surface temperature for 1928-2012. Decadal variability in the flow record is examined for a longer term perspective on Gila River streamflow using tree ring-based reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). New hydrological insights for the region: Results indicate a strong influence of winter-spring precipitation and Pacific SST anomalies on the winter-spring streamflow, with El Nino conditions in the Pacific causing increased precipitation and streamflow. Decadal Pacific variability helps explain the transition from high winter flow in the late 20th century to lower flows in the most recent decade. The summer streamflow has a somewhat weaker correlation with precipitation and Pacific SST than the winter-spring streamflow. Its variability is more likely influenced by local North American Monsoon precipitation variability. PDSI and SPI reconstructions indicate much more severe and extended periods of droughts and pluvials in past centuries as well as periods of concurrent winter and summer drought.

drought↗

K-Basins Sludge Treatment and Packaging at the Hanford Site - 13585

Highly radioactive sludge resulting from the storage of degraded spent nuclear fuel has been consolidated in Engineered Containers (ECs) in the 105-K West Storage Basin located on the Hanford site near the Columbia River in Washington State. CH2M Hill Plateau Remediation Company (CHPRC) is proceeding with a project to retrieve the sludge, place it in Sludge Transport and Storage Containers (STSCs) and store those filled containers within the T Plant Canyon facility on the Hanford Site Central Plateau (Phase 1). Retrieval and transfer of the sludge material will enable removal of the 105-K West Basin and allow remediation of the subsurface contamination plumes under the basin. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) plans to treat and dispose of this K Basins sludge (Phase 2) as Remote Handled Transuranic Waste (RH TRU) at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) located in New Mexico. The K Basin sludge currently contains uranium metal which reacts with water present in the stored slurry, generating hydrogen and other byproducts. The established transportation and disposal requirements require the transformation of the K Basins sludge to a chemically stable, liquid-free, packaged waste form. The Treatment and Packaging Project includes removal of the containerised sludge from T Plant, the treatment of the sludge as required, and packaging of all the sludge into a form that is certifiable for transportation to and disposal at WIPP. Completion of this scope will require construction and operation of a Sludge Treatment and Packaging Facility (STPF), which could be either a completely new facility or a modification of an existing Hanford Site facility. A Technology Evaluation and Alternatives Analysis (TEAA) for the STP Phase 2 was completed in 2011. A Request for Technology Information (RFI) had been issued in October 2009 to solicit candidate technologies for use in Phase 2. The RFI also included a preliminary definition of Phase 2 functions and requirements. Potentially applicable technologies were identified through a commercial procurement process, technical workshops, and review of the numerous previous sludge treatment technology studies. The identified technology approaches were screened using the criteria established in the Decision Plan, and focused bench top feasibility testing was conducted. Engineering evaluations of the costs, schedules, and technical maturity were developed and evaluated. Recommendations were developed based on technical evaluations. The criteria used in the evaluation process were as follows: (1) Safety, (2) Regulatory/stakeholder acceptance, (3) Technical maturity, (4) Operability and maintainability, (5) Life cycle cost and schedule, (6) Potential for beneficial integration with ongoing STP-Phase 1 activities, and (7) Integration with Site-wide RH-TRU processing/packaging, planning, schedule, and approach. The TEAA recommended Warm Water Oxidation (WWO) as the baseline treatment technology and two risk reduction enhancement options for further consideration during development of the process - size reduction and chemical oxidation (Fenton's reagent). The enhancement options would potentially allow a useful reduction in the total operating time required to process the K Basins sludge. The U.S. Department of Energy's Richland Field Office (DOE-RL) has approved this recommended technical approach. The baseline process can be broken down into the following main process steps: (1) STSC transfer from T Plant to the Sludge Treatment and Packaging Facility (STPF). (2) Retrieval of sludge from the STSCs and transfer to the Receipt and Reaction Tank (RRT). (3) Preparation for immobilization by oxidation using heated water (i.e., WWO) for those batches that require it and concentration by evaporating water at about atmospheric pressure in the RRT. (4) Immobilization by using additives to eliminate free liquids and packaging of the treated sludge into drums. (5) Inspection and handling of the filled drums prior to transfer to a separate storage and shipping facility. (6) Handling of vapor, condensate, and other waste streams generated by the process. Each of these steps is discussed in the paper, together with the current state of progress in developing the technology and requirements for continued development. A schematic of the recommended baseline WWO treatment process is given below. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Early Career Paths at Los Alamos National Laboratory

We represent a selection of early career staff at LANL with backgrounds in mathematics. There are many possible paths to a position at LANL. The lab has very active graduate research and postdoctoral programs, and it is not uncommon for graduate students to become postdocs, who can then be “converted” to staff. Conversion from being a postdoc is not the only route to a position at LANL, nor is it a guarantee, but most of us did postdocs here before becoming staff. Being a postdoc here also gives you an idea of whether you’d like living in northern New Mexico, a rugged, beautiful, and somewhat remote area. It is important to say here that citizenship is not a requirement for many of the positions at the lab. The lab historically and currently welcomes investigators from all over the world. LANL offers a broad spectrum of mathematical challenges that are largely problem driven. Particularly to those who feel that academic mathematics can be stove-piped, with a focus on deep but not necessarily broad expertise, the LANL environment gives the flexibility to move and grow in many different directions. The lab encourages a team-based approach to problems, which not only enhances the breadth of our approach to solving problems, but also gives team members access to new fields. From the outside (academia), however, it can be difficult to see how fields map between academia and the lab. This is one of the reasons that having interaction with the lab as a graduate student or postdoc can be helpful in understanding if the environment would be a good match for you. An important advantage of working at the lab is our high visibility both in academia, as well as in industry and the government. Because of its mission-driven projects, LANL, and more broadly the Department of Energy Laboratories, help set research directions that are picked up by researchers in academia. For this reason, many lab staff have worked at LANL for a number of years, then have transferred into academia after having set the agenda for their field of expertise. Below, we will share some of our experiences, opinions, and reflections in order to give the reader a feel for our own early career experiences.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Proceedings of the 5th US/German Workshop on Salt Repository Research Design and Operation

The 5th US/German Workshop on Salt Repository Research, Design, and Operation was held in Santa Fe New Mexico September 8-10, 2014. The forty seven registered participants were equally divided between the United States (US) and Germany, with one participant from The Netherlands. The agenda for the 2014 workshop was under development immediately upon finishing the 4th Workshop. Ongoing, fundamental topics such as thermomechanical behavior of salt, plugging and sealing, the safety case, and performance assessment continue to advance the basis for disposal of heat-generating nuclear waste in salt formations. The utility of a salt underground research laboratory (URL) remains an intriguing concept engendering discussion of testing protocol. By far the most interest in this years’ workshop pertained to operational safety. Given events at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), this discussion took on a new sense of relevance and urgency.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Spreading the Word on Safety

Beginning with the Apollo Program in the early 1960s, the NASA White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) has supported every U.S. human exploration space flight program to date. Located in Las Cruces, New Mexico, WSTF is part of Johnson Space Center. The facility's primary mission is to provide the expertise and infrastructure to test and evaluate spacecraft materials, components, and rocket propulsion systems to enable the safe human exploration and utilization of space. WSTF stores, tests, and disposes of Space Shuttle and International Space Station propellants. Since aerospace fluids can have harmful reactions with the construction materials of the systems containing them, a major component of WSTF's work is the study of propellants and hazardous materials. WSTF has a wide variety of resources to draw upon in assessing the fire, explosion, compatibility, and safety hazards of these fluids, which include hydrogen, oxygen, hydrazine fuels, and nitrogen tetroxide. In addition to developing new test methods, WSTF has created technical manuals and training courses for the safe use of aerospace fluids.

Source record↗

Requirements for a network storage service

Sandia National Laboratories provides a high performance classified computer network as a core capability in support of its mission of nuclear weapons design and engineering, physical sciences research, and energy research and development. The network, locally known as the Internal Secure Network (ISN), comprises multiple distributed local area networks (LAN's) residing in New Mexico and California. The TCP/IP protocol suite is used for inter-node communications. Scientific workstations and mid-range computers, running UNIX-based operating systems, compose most LAN's. One LAN, operated by the Sandia Corporate Computing Computing Directorate, is a general purpose resource providing a supercomputer and a file server to the entire ISN. The current file server on the supercomputer LAN is an implementation of the Common File Server (CFS). Subsequent to the design of the ISN, Sandia reviewed its mass storage requirements and chose to enter into a competitive procurement to replace the existing file server with one more adaptable to a UNIX/TCP/IP environment. The requirements study for the network was the starting point for the requirements study for the new file server. The file server is called the Network Storage Service (NSS) and its requirements are described. An application or functional description of the NSS is given. The final section adds performance, capacity, and access constraints to the requirements.

Kelly, Suzanne M.↗

Requirements for a network storage service

Sandia National Laboratories provides a high performance classified computer network as a core capability in support of its mission of nuclear weapons design and engineering, physical sciences research, and energy research and development. The network, locally known as the Internal Secure Network (ISN), was designed in 1989 and comprises multiple distributed local area networks (LAN's) residing in Albuquerque, New Mexico and Livermore, California. The TCP/IP protocol suite is used for inner-node communications. Scientific workstations and mid-range computers, running UNIX-based operating systems, compose most LAN's. One LAN, operated by the Sandia Corporate Computing Directorate, is a general purpose resource providing a supercomputer and a file server to the entire ISN. The current file server on the supercomputer LAN is an implementation of the Common File System (CFS) developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory. Subsequent to the design of the ISN, Sandia reviewed its mass storage requirements and chose to enter into a competitive procurement to replace the existing file server with one more adaptable to a UNIX/TCP/IP environment. The requirements study for the network was the starting point for the requirements study for the new file server. The file server is called the Network Storage Services (NSS) and is requirements are described in this paper. The next section gives an application or functional description of the NSS. The final section adds performance, capacity, and access constraints to the requirements.

Kelly, Suzanne M.↗

An Integrated Partnership to Create and Lead the Solar Codes and Standards Working Group (Final Report)

The DOE grant, “An Integrated Partnership to Create and Lead the Solar Codes and Standards Working Group,” to New Mexico State University created the Solar America Board for Codes and Standards (Solar ABCs). From 2007 – 2013 with funding from this grant, Solar ABCs identified current issues, established a dialogue among key stakeholders, and catalyzed appropriate activities to support the development of codes and standards that facilitated the installation of high quality, safe photovoltaic systems. Solar ABCs brought the following resources to the PV stakeholder community; Formal coordination in the planning or revision of interrelated codes and standards removing “stove pipes” that have only roofing experts working on roofing codes, PV experts on PV codes, fire enforcement experts working on fire codes, etc.; A conduit through which all interested stakeholders were able to see the steps being taken in the development or modification of codes and standards and participate directly in the processes; A central clearing house for new documents, standards, proposed standards, analytical studies, and recommendations of best practices available to the PV community; A forum of experts that invites and welcomes all interested parties into the process of performing studies, evaluating results, and building consensus on standards and code-related topics that affect all aspects of the market; and A biennial gap analysis to formally survey the PV community to identify needs that are unmet and inhibiting the market and necessary technical developments.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Geologic interpretation of Apollo 6 stereophotography from Baja California to west Texas

Excellent space photography of parts of the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico was obtained during the unmanned Apollo 6 spaceflight. Two features of this photography made it useful for geologic interpretations: its vertical stereocoverage and its exposure under a relatively low angle of solar illumination through an unusually cloud-free and clear atmosphere. The structural patterns, which were topographically enhanced by the longer shadows, were annotated on the photographs, in order to analyze their trends with respect to the continental tectonic framework, and to attempt to correlate the pattern with known copper or other base metal deposits. The annotated fracture patterns showed the regional trends and their distribution. The area studied was a 100- to 105-mile swath of terrain covering a total land area of approximately 60,000 square statute miles. The coverage began from a point centered on Punta Colnett on the Pacific coast of Baja California and extended to the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico and west Texas.

Gawarecki, S. J.↗

Modeling of CBM production, CO2 injection, and tracer movement at a field CO2 sequestration site

Sequestration of carbon dioxide in unmineable coal seams is a potential technology mainly because of the potential for simultaneous enhanced coalbed methane production (ECBM). Several pilot tests have been performed around the globe leading to mixed results. Numerous modeling efforts have been carried out successfully to model methane production and carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) injection. Sensitivity analyses and history matching along with several optimization tools were used to estimate reservoir properties and to investigate reservoir performance. Geological and geophysical techniques have also been used to characterize field sequestration sites and to inspect reservoir heterogeneity. The fate and movement of injected CO{sub 2} can be determined by using several monitoring techniques. Monitoring of perfluorocarbon (PFC) tracers is one of these monitoring technologies. As a part of this monitoring technique, a small fraction of a traceable fluid is added to the injection wellhead along with the CO{sub 2} stream at different times to monitor the timing and location of the breakthrough in nearby monitoring wells or offset production wells. A reservoir modeling study was performed to simulate a pilot sequestration site located in the San Juan coal basin of northern New Mexico. Several unknown reservoir properties at the field site were estimated by modeling the coal seam as a dual porosity formation and by history matching the methane production and CO{sub 2} injection. In addition to reservoir modeling of methane production and CO{sub 2} injection, tracer injection was modeled. Tracers serve as a surrogate for determining potential leakage of CO{sub 2}. The tracer was modeled as a non-reactive gas and was injected into the reservoir as a mixture along with CO{sub 2}. Geologic and geometric details of the field site, numerical modeling details of methane production, CO{sub 2} injection, and tracer injection are presented in this paper. Moreover, the numerical predictions of the tracer arrival times were compared with the measured field data. Results show that tracer modeling is useful in investigating movement of injected CO{sub 2} into the coal seam at the field site. Also, such new modeling techniques can be utilized to determine potential leakage pathways, and to investigate reservoir anisotropy and heterogeneity.

Reservoir modeling↗

Keeping Communication Continuous

General Dynamics Decision Systems employees have played a role in supplying telemetry, tracking, and control (TT&C) and other communications systems to NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense for over 40 years. Providing integrated communication systems and subsystems for nearly all manned and unmanned U.S. space flights, the heritage of this Scottsdale, Arizona-based company includes S-band transceivers that enabled millions of Americans to see Neil Armstrong and hear his prophetic words from the Moon in 1969. More recently, Decision Systems has collaborated with NASA s Goddard Space Flight Center to develop transponders, wireless communications devices that pick up and automatically respond to an incoming signal, for NASA s Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS). Four generations of Decision Systems TDRSS transponders have been developed under Goddard s sponsorship. The company s Fourth Generation TDRSS User Transponder (TDRSS IV) allows low-Earth-orbiting spacecraft to communicate continuously with a single ground station at White Sands, New Mexico, through a constellation of geostationary relay satellites positioned at key locations around the Earth. In addition to the communications of forward link control commands and return link telemetry data, the TDRSS IV also supports spacecraft orbit tracking through coherent turn-around of a pseudo-noise ranging code and two-way Doppler tracking.When the NSBF adopted the use of global positioning system receivers for balloon position tracking, Decision Systems concluded that a simpler, noncoherent transceiver could provide the NSBF with the necessary TDRSS communications without the additional cost and complexity of a coherent transponder. The solution was to take the core design of the TDRSS IV Transponder, but remove the extra functionality that supported coherent turn-around. This would simplify the production effort, reduce the testing required, and result in a lower cost product with smaller size, weight, and power consumption. Once NSBF and Decision Systems agreed on a concept for this new product, known as the Multi-Mode Transceiver (MMT), the NSBF approached Goddard for approval and funding.

Source record↗

The effects of environmental conditions on eggshell thickness of two North American secondary cavity-nesting birds

Egg hatchability in birds is a critical component of individual reproductive success and is associated with eggshell integrity. Contaminants, such as DDT, can influence eggshell thickness and are known to cause population declines. Moisture content and temperature can also impact eggshell thickness, but the influence of environmental conditions on the natural variation in eggshell thickness in wild populations is not well understood. Our goal was to investigate the relationship between environmental conditions and eggshell thickness of Western Bluebird (Sialia mexicana) and Ash-throated Flycatcher (Myiarchus cinerascens) eggs from 1997 to 2013 on the Pajarito Plateau in northern New Mexico. We tested whether nesting elevation, temperature, precipitation, and drought conditions influenced eggshell thickness in these two secondary cavity-nesting species, while also looking at eggshell thickness over time. Over the 16 years, nonviable or abandoned eggs were collected, and the analyzed dataset included 330 bluebird eggs and 113 flycatcher eggs. There was a significant increase in eggshell thickness over time for both species. Flycatcher eggshells were correlated with higher temperatures, whereas bluebird eggshells were influenced by an interaction between temperature and drought severity. In drought conditions, bluebird eggshell thickness was positively correlated with temperature, whereas in wet conditions, eggshell thickness was negatively correlated with temperature. Thicker eggshells in drought conditions may be a way of reducing water loss from eggs, which occurs faster at higher temperatures. In the southwestern United States, frequent and severe drought, higher temperatures, and decreases in precipitation are all expected to continue. In conclusion, the structure of eggs will be important to consider regarding how species may or may not adapt to novel conditions or persist in new environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Radiological Safety Analysis Computer (RSAC 7.2) Presentation

This presentation will be for the graduate seminar class for the University of New Mexico. We will discuss the Radiological Safety Analysis Computer (RSAC) version 7.2, a critical tool in radiological consequence analysis within the nuclear safety domain. We will begin with an introduction to radiological consequence analysis and the importance of dose modeling in nuclear safety, referencing key regulatory frameworks such as DOE-STD-3009 and 10 CFR 20. The presentation will provide an overview of RSAC, including its history, primary functions, and the inputs and outputs involved in its calculations. A detailed examination of RSAC's atmospheric dispersion model, based on the Gaussian plume methodology, will be presented, highlighting how meteorological factors influence the results. We will discuss the regulatory alignment of RSAC with DOE and NRC guidelines, emphasizing the assumptions required for compliance and the balance between conservative and realistic inputs. The presentation will also address the limitations and assumptions inherent in RSAC, comparing it with other consequence analysis codes like MACCS, HotSpot, and RASCAL. An example RSAC run will be demonstrated, showcasing a hypothetical accident scenario and interpreting the resulting dose calculations. Finally, we will introduce new ideas to enhance the current RSAC framework. This future work aims to provide multi-industry adaptability and integration with new dispersion models, addressing the evolving needs of DOE and NRC. The presentation will conclude with a discussion on RSAC's ongoing role in nuclear safety and the opportunities for future innovation.

computer program↗

Probabilistic Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy and Storage Requirements for NM's Energy Transition Act (SAND Report)

This report provides a study of the potential impacts of climate change on intermittent renewable energy resources, battery storage, and resource adequacy in Public Service Company of New Mexico’s Integrated Resource Plan for 2020 – 2040. Climate change models and available data were first evaluated to determine uncertainty and potential changes in solar irradiance, temperature, and wind speed in NM in the coming decades. These changes were then implemented in solar and wind energy models to determine impacts on renewable energy resources in NM. Results for the extreme climate-change scenario show that the projected wind power may decrease by ~13% due to projected decreases in wind speed. Projected solar power may decrease by ~4% due to decreases in irradiance and increases in temperature in NM. Uncertainty in these climate-induced changes in wind and solar resources was accommodated in probabilistic models assuming uniform distributions in the annual reductions in solar and wind resources. Uncertainty in battery storage performance was also evaluated based on increased temperature, capacity fade, and degradation in round-trip efficiency. The hourly energy balance was determined throughout the year given uncertainties in the renewable energy resources and energy storage. The loss of load expectation (LOLE) was evaluated for the 2040 No New Combustion portfolio and found to increase from 0 days/year to a median value of ~2 days/year due to potential reductions in renewable energy resources and battery storage performance and capacity. A rank-regression analyses revealed that battery round-trip efficiency was the most significant parameter that impacted LOLE, followed by solar resource, wind resource, and battery fade. An increase in battery storage capacity to ~25,000 – 30,000 MWh from a baseline value of ~14,000 MWh was required to reduce the median value of LOLE to ~0.2 days/year with consideration of potential climate impacts and battery degradation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗