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At least 775 records · Page 43
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NASA NTRS2002

System Level Uncertainty Assessment for Collaborative RLV Design

A collaborative design process utilizing Probabilistic Data Assessment (PDA) is showcased. Given the limitation of financial resources by both the government and industry, strategic decision makers need more than just traditional point designs, they need to be aware of the likelihood of these future designs to meet their objectives. This uncertainty, an ever-present character in the design process, can be embraced through a probabilistic design environment. A conceptual design process is presented that encapsulates the major engineering disciplines for a Third Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV). Toolsets consist of aerospace industry standard tools in disciplines such as trajectory, propulsion, mass properties, cost, operations, safety, and economics. Variations of the design process are presented that use different fidelities of tools. The disciplinary engineering models are used in a collaborative engineering framework utilizing Phoenix Integration's ModelCenter and AnalysisServer environment. These tools allow the designer to join disparate models and simulations together in a unified environment wherein each discipline can interact with any other discipline. The design process also uses probabilistic methods to generate the system level output metrics of interest for a RLV conceptual design. The specific system being examined is the Advanced Concept Rocket Engine 92 (ACRE-92) RLV. Previous experience and knowledge (in terms of input uncertainty distributions from experts and modeling and simulation codes) can be coupled with Monte Carlo processes to best predict the chances of program success.

Charania, A. C.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Neural network uncertainty assessment using Bayesian statistics: a remote sensing application

Neural network (NN) techniques have proved successful for many regression problems, in particular for remote sensing; however, uncertainty estimates are rarely provided. In this article, a Bayesian technique to evaluate uncertainties of the NN parameters (i.e., synaptic weights) is first presented. In contrast to more traditional approaches based on point estimation of the NN weights, we assess uncertainties on such estimates to monitor the robustness of the NN model. These theoretical developments are illustrated by applying them to the problem of retrieving surface skin temperature, microwave surface emissivities, and integrated water vapor content from a combined analysis of satellite microwave and infrared observations over land. The weight uncertainty estimates are then used to compute analytically the uncertainties in the network outputs (i.e., error bars and correlation structure of these errors). Such quantities are very important for evaluating any application of an NN model. The uncertainties on the NN Jacobians are then considered in the third part of this article. Used for regression fitting, NN models can be used effectively to represent highly nonlinear, multivariate functions. In this situation, most emphasis is put on estimating the output errors, but almost no attention has been given to errors associated with the internal structure of the regression model. The complex structure of dependency inside the NN is the essence of the model, and assessing its quality, coherency, and physical character makes all the difference between a blackbox model with small output errors and a reliable, robust, and physically coherent model. Such dependency structures are described to the first order by the NN Jacobians: they indicate the sensitivity of one output with respect to the inputs of the model for given input data. We use a Monte Carlo integration procedure to estimate the robustness of the NN Jacobians. A regularization strategy based on principal component analysis is proposed to suppress the multicollinearities in order to make these Jacobians robust and physically meaningful.

Neural Networks (Computer)↗
NASA NTRS2012

High Fidelity Simulations of Plume Impingement to the International Space Station

With the retirement of the Space Shuttle, the United States now depends on recently developed commercial spacecraft to supply the International Space Station (ISS) with cargo. These new vehicles supplement ones from international partners including the Russian Progress, the European Autonomous Transfer Vehicle (ATV), and the Japanese H-II Transfer Vehicle (HTV). Furthermore, to carry crew to the ISS and supplement the capability currently provided exclusively by the Russian Soyuz, new designs and a refinement to a cargo vehicle design are in work. Many of these designs include features such as nozzle scarfing or simultaneous firing of multiple thrusters resulting in complex plumes. This results in a wide variety of complex plumes impinging upon the ISS. Therefore, to ensure safe "proximity operations" near the ISS, the need for accurate and efficient high fidelity simulation of plume impingement to the ISS is as high as ever. A capability combining computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) techniques has been developed to properly model the large density variations encountered as the plume expands from the high pressure in the combustion chamber to the near vacuum conditions at the orbiting altitude of the ISS. Details of the computational tools employed by this method, including recent software enhancements and the best practices needed to achieve accurate simulations, are discussed. Several recent examples of the application of this high fidelity capability are presented. These examples highlight many of the real world, complex features of plume impingement that occur when "visiting vehicles" operate in the vicinity of the ISS.

Lumpkin, Forrest E., III↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Shadow Knows: Using Shadows to Investigate the Structure of the Pretransitional Disk of HD 100453

We present Gemini Planet Imager polarized intensity imagery of HD 100453 in Y, J, and K1 bands that reveals an inner gap (9-18 au), an outer disk (18-39 au) with two prominent spiral arms, and two azimuthally localized dark features that are also present in Spectro-Polarimetric High-contrast Exoplanet REsearch (SPHERE) total intensity images. Spectral energy distribution fitting further suggests that the radial gap extends to 1 au. The narrow, wedge-like shape of the dark features appears similar to predictions of shadows cast by an inner disk that is misaligned with respect to the outer disk. Using the Monte Carlo radiative transfer code HOCHUNCK3D, we construct a model of the disk that allows us to determine its physical properties in more detail. From the angular separation of the features, we measure the difference in inclination between the disks (45deg) and their major axes, PA = 140deg east of north for the outer disk, and 100deg for the inner disk. We find an outer-disk inclination of 25deg +/- 10deg from face-on, in broad agreement with the Wagner et al. measurement of 34deg. SPHERE data in J and H bands indicate a reddish disk, which indicates that HD 100453 is evolving into a young debris disk.

Spectro-Polarimetric High-contrast Exoplanet REsea↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Blueprint for Demonstrating Quantum Supremacy with Superconducting Qubits

Long coherence times and high fidelity control recently achieved in scalable superconducting circuits paved the way for the growing number of experimental studies of many-qubit quantum coherent phenomena in these devices. Albeit full implementation of quantum error correction and fault tolerant quantum computation remains a challenge the near term pre-error correction devices could allow new fundamental experiments despite inevitable accumulation of errors. One such open question foundational for quantum computing is achieving the so called quantum supremacy, an experimental demonstration of a computational task that takes polynomial time on the quantum computer whereas the best classical algorithm would require exponential time and/or resources. It is possible to formulate such a task for a quantum computer consisting of less than a 100 qubits. The computational task we consider is to provide approximate samples from a non-trivial quantum distribution. This is a generalization for the case of superconducting circuits of ideas behind boson sampling protocol for quantum optics introduced by Arkhipov and Aaronson. In this presentation we discuss a proof-of-principle demonstration of such a sampling task on a 9-qubit chain of superconducting gmon qubits developed by Google. We discuss theoretical analysis of the driven evolution of the device resulting in output approximating samples from a uniform distribution in the Hilbert space, a quantum chaotic state. We analyze quantum chaotic characteristics of the output of the circuit and the time required to generate a sufficiently complex quantum distribution. We demonstrate that the classical simulation of the sampling output requires exponential resources by connecting the task of calculating the output amplitudes to the sign problem of the Quantum Monte Carlo method. We also discuss the detailed theoretical modeling required to achieve high fidelity control and calibration of the multi-qubit unitary evolution in the device. We use a novel cross-entropy statistical metric as a figure of merit to verify the output and calibrate the device controls. Finally, we demonstrate the statistics of the wave function amplitudes generated on the 9-gmon chain and verify the quantum chaotic nature of the generated quantum distribution. This verifies the implementation of the quantum supremacy protocol.

Kechedzhi, Kostyantyn↗
NASA NTRS2018

Gravitational Wave Sources as Timing References for LISA Data

In the megahertz gravitational-wave band, galactic ultra-compact binaries (UCBs) are continuous sources emitting at near-constant frequency. The signals from many of these galactic binaries will be sufficiently strong to be detectable by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) after approximately Omicron (1 week) of observing. In addition to their astrophysical value, these UCBs can be used to monitor the data quality of the observatory. This paper demonstrates the capabilities of galactic UCBs to be used as calibration sources for LISA by demanding signal coherence between adjacent week-long data segments separated by a gap in time of a priori unknown duration. A parameter for the gap duration is added to the UCB waveform model and used in a Markov-chain Monte Carlo algorithm simultaneously fitting for the astrophysical source parameters. Results from measurements of several UCBs are combined to produce a joint posterior on the gap duration. The measurement accuracy's dependence on how much is known about the UCBs through prior observing, and seasonal variations due to the LISA orbital motion, is quantified. The duration of data gaps in a two-week segment of data can be constrained to within approximately 0.2 s using Omicron (10) UCBs after one month of observing. The timing accuracy from UCBs improves to approximately or less than o.1 s after 1 year of mission operations. These results are robust to within a factor of approximately 2 when taking into account seasonal variations.

Gravitation Wave Sources↗
NASA NTRS2019

External Impact Effects on Operational Availability ESMO Experience

Presentation to support a Summit/TIM with various Stakeholders (Ground and Flight) to perform a GAP analysis associated with ground and spacecraft maintenance, maintainability, and availability activities in order to identify missing Agency planning and guidance materials.

Simulation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lunar Relay Onboard Navigation Performance and Effects on Lander Descent to Surface

A system of Lunar relay satellites has been proposed to address communication and navigation needs and ensure robustness for the variety of upcoming robotic and human exploration missions to the Moon. The relays are envisioned to estimate self position and time knowledge onboard, allowing the system to provide in-situ navigation services to missions in the Lunar and cis-Lunar environment. The quality and accuracy of those services are highly dependent on the navigation performance of the relay itself. To assess the Lunar relay navigation performance, a series of orbit determination (OD) Monte Carlo (MC) simulations are run using Lunar gravity modeling up to a degree and order of 250 and a variety of onboard clocks and measurement types including weak-signal GNSS, Ground Network (GN) pseudorange (PR) and Doppler, and optical navigation (OpNav) center-finding (CF). The estimated trajectories produced by these Lunar relay MC simulations, along with the associated errors, and transmitted navigation reference signal parameters, are used to evaluate the expected navigation performance of a user on a descent trajectory to the Lunar surface. The scenario features a lander system performing onboard navigation relying on one-way range and Doppler measurements from reference signals emitted by the Lunar relay. This paper can be used as a reference in determining the onboard clock and measurement types necessary to obtain acceptable navigation performance for the Lunar relay, and as a baseline for Lunar lander navigation performance using accurate measurements from a relay reference signal.

Jeffrey L. Small↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lunar Relay Onboard Navigation Performance and Effects on Lander Descent to Surface

A system of Lunar relay satellites has been proposed to address communication and navigation needs and ensure robustness for the variety of upcoming robotic and human exploration missions to the Moon. The relays are envisioned to estimate self-position and time knowledge onboard, allowing the system to provide in-situ navigation services to missions in the Lunar and cis-Lunar environment. The quality and accuracy of those services are highly dependent on the navigation performance of the relay itself. To assess the Lunar relay navigation performance, a series of orbit determination (OD) Monte Carlo (MC) simulations are run using Lunar gravity modeling up to a degree and order of 250 and a variety of onboard clocks and measurement types including weak-signal GNSS, Ground Network (GN) pseudorange (PR) and Doppler, and optical navigation (OpNav) center-finding (CF). The estimated trajectories produced by these Lunar relay MC simulations, along with the associated errors, and transmitted navigation reference signal parameters, are used to evaluate the expected navigation performance of a user on a descent trajectory to the Lunar surface. The scenario features a lander system performing onboard navigation relying on one-way range and Doppler measurements from reference signals emitted by the Lunar relay. This paper can be used as a reference in determining the onboard clock and measurement types necessary to obtain acceptable navigation performance for the Lunar relay, and as a baseline for Lunar lander navigation performance using accurate measurements from a relay reference signal.

Jeffrey L. Small↗
NASA NTRS2021

Variability of Disk Emission in Pre-main Sequence and Related Stars. V. OccultationEvents from the Innermost Disk Region of the Herbig Ae Star HD 163296

HD 163296 is a Herbig Ae star that underwent a dramatic∼0.8 magnitude drop in brightness in the V photometric band in 2001 and a brightening in the near-IR in 2002. Because the star possesses Herbig–Haro objects traveling in out flowing bipolar jets, it was suggested that the drop in brightness was due to a clump of dust entrained in a disk wind, blocking the line of sight toward the star. In order to quantify this hypothesis, we investigated the brightness drop at visible wavelengths and the brightening at near-IR wavelengths of HD 163296 using the Monte Carlo Radiative Transfer Code,HOCHUNK3D. We created three models to understand the events. Model 1 describes the quiescent state of the system. Model 2 describes the change in structure that led to the drop in brightness in 2001.Model 3 describes the structure needed to produce the observed 2002 brightening of the near-IR wavelengths. Models 2 and 3 utilize a combination of a disk wind and central bipolar flow. By introducing a filled bipolar cavity in Models 2 and 3, we were able to successfully simulate a jet-like structure for the star with a disk wind and created the drop and subsequent increase in brightness of the system. On the other hand, when the bipolar cavity is not filled, Model 1 replicates the quiescent state of the system

Monika Pikhartova↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lunar Lander Landing Modeling and Simulation in Simscape

The landing gear is a critical subsystem of a lander for a successful landing on the moon or a planet. During a landing event, structural loading, energy absorption and toppling stability are important factors for the landing gear development. These aspects can be studied using simulations. The landing gear comprising the primary struct, secondary structs, footpad, and joints, is easily modeled using Simscape Multibody toolbox. The energy absorption mechanisms in the structs is readily modeled using Simulink and Multibody blocks based on the relative motions of the inner and outer cylinder of the structures. During touchdown, the footpads strike the lunar surface, and the contact forces can be modeled including the soil mechanical properties. Slosh dynamics are included using a mechanical pendulum model. Tip-over controllers are developed using Simulink blocks and toolboxes. This model was intensively tested manually then additionally with Monte Carlo simulation. It offers the opportunity for landing stability study, i.e. the max slope a lander can land without tipping over in 3D realistic landing situations.

Wei Wu↗
NASA NTRS1995

Comparisons of the Maxwell and CLL Gas/Surface Interaction Models Using DSMC

Two contrasting models of gas-surface interactions are studied using the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. The DSMC calculations examine differences in predictions of aerodynamic forces and heat transfer between the Maxwell and Cercignani-Lampis-Lord (CLL) models for flat plate configurations at freestream conditions corresponding to a 140 km orbit around Venus. The size of the flat plate is that of one of the solar panels on the Magellan spacecraft, and the freestream conditions are one of those experienced during aerobraking maneuvers. Results are presented for both a single flat plate and a two-plate configuration as a function of angle of attack and gas-surface accommodation coefficients. The two plate system is not representative of the Magellan geometry, but is studied to explore possible experiments that might be used to differentiate between the two gas surface interaction models.

Hedahl, Marc O.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Investigation of radiative interaction in laminar flows using Monte Carlo simulation

The Monte Carlo method (MCM) is employed to study the radiative interactions in fully developed laminar flow between two parallel plates. Taking advantage of the characteristics of easy mathematical treatment of the MCM, a general numerical procedure is developed for nongray radiative interaction. The nongray model is based on the statistical narrow band model with an exponential-tailed inverse intensity distribution. To validate the Monte Carlo simulation for nongray radiation problems, the results of radiative dissipation from the MCM are compared with two available solutions for a given temperature profile between two plates. After this validation, the MCM is employed to solve the present physical problem and results for the bulk temperature are compared with available solutions. In general, good agreement is noted and reasons for some discrepancies in certain ranges of parameters are explained.

Liu, Jiwen↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Holistic DSMC Transport Database for Re-Entry and Ablation Modeling

Hybrid simulation frameworks combining Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) are frequently employed to efficiently perform high-fidelity solutions of environments containing combined continuum/rarified flow. The use of DSMC, a stochastic, particle-based method, is necessary for high-Knudsen flow where continuum-based assumptions governing CFD break down. However, the DSMC methodology is generally very computationally inefficient to model the continuum regime. In a CFD/DSMC hybrid approach, obtaining an accurate, high-fidelity solution hinges on the consistent treatment of transport properties and the used thermo-chemical models employed within the two solvers. In principle, in regions where CFD and DSMC are both employed, the same gas mixture under the same conditions should have the same properties, regardless of simulation type. Observed differences should be due to non-equilibrium processes, rather than differences in physical models. While the transport models governing CFD and DSMC simulations are starkly different, they can effectively be linked via their use of reduced Chapman-Enskog collision integrals. In CFD, these integrals are typically stored as fitted polynomial expressions and used to directly compute gas transport properties via mixing rules or the full Chapman-Enskog formulation. In DSMC, they can be used to derive the collision parameters needed for the phenomenological collision cross-section models that govern particle interactions, via a Nelder-Mead optimization scheme. The goal of this work is to provide a unified DSMC transport database encompassing the vast majority of known gas species encountered during atmospheric entry, on Earth or any other Solar body. This goal is largely possible due to recently performed ab-initio quantum chemistry calculations. Combined with other high-fidelity literature sources, the planned database will consist of collision integral data for over 200 neutral and ionized species and over 17000 binary collisions. From these collision integrals, Nelder-Mead optimization is used to compute Variable Soft Sphere (VSS) collision model parameters for DSMC, fitted from 300 K to 20000 K. Initial comparisons of transport properties of relevant equilibrium gas mixtures show great agreement between CFD and DSMC-derived results. The completed database will be able to be readily applied to model binary collisions of any gas mixture containing the included species over the specified temperature range, making it a valuable tool for future planetary probe modeling efforts. An example is shown below. Equilibrium mixture transport properties for a 19-species Titan atmospheric model [4] are computed using both fitted VSS parameters and the original CFD collision integral values. Deviations in computed properties between the two approaches is less than 5% for the entire temperature range.

M R Gosma↗
NASA NTRS1995

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Rapid Crystallization of Bismuth-Doped Silicon

In this Letter we report Ising model simulations of the growth of alloys which predict quite different behavior near and far from equilibrium. Our simulations reproduce the phenomenon which has been termed 'solute trapping,' where concentrations of solute, which are far in excess of the equilibrium concentrations, are observed in the crystal after rapid crystallization. This phenomenon plays an important role in many processes which involve first order phase changes which take place under conditions far from equilibrium. The underlying physical basis for it has not been understood, but these Monte Carlo simulations provide a powerful means for investigating it.

Jackson, Kenneth A.↗
NASA NTRS1997

CGRO Guest Investigator Program

The following are highlights from the research supported by this grant: (1) Theory of gamma-ray blazars: We studied the theory of gamma-ray blazars, being among the first investigators to propose that the GeV emission arises from Comptonization of diffuse radiation surrounding the jet, rather than from the synchrotron-self-Compton mechanism. In related work, we uncovered possible connections between the mechanisms of gamma-ray blazars and those of intraday radio variability, and have conducted a general study of the role of Compton radiation drag on the dynamics of relativistic jets. (2) A Nonlinear Monte Carlo code for gamma-ray spectrum formation: We developed, tested, and applied the first Nonlinear Monte Carlo (NLMC) code for simulating gamma-ray production and transfer under much more general (and realistic) conditions than are accessible with other techniques. The present version of the code is designed to simulate conditions thought to be present in active galactic nuclei and certain types of X-ray binaries, and includes the physics needed to model thermal and nonthermal electron-positron pair cascades. Unlike traditional Monte-Carlo techniques, our method can accurately handle highly non-linear systems in which the radiation and particle backgrounds must be determined self-consistently and in which the particle energies span many orders of magnitude. Unlike models based on kinetic equations, our code can handle arbitrary source geometries and relativistic kinematic effects In its first important application following testing, we showed that popular semi-analytic accretion disk corona models for Seyfert spectra are seriously in error, and demonstrated how the spectra can be simulated if the disk is sparsely covered by localized 'flares'.

Begelman, Mitchell C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Probability density function approach for compressible turbulent reacting flows

The objective of the present work is to extend the probability density function (PDF) tubulence model to compressible reacting flows. The proability density function of the species mass fractions and enthalpy are obtained by solving a PDF evolution equation using a Monte Carlo scheme. The PDF solution procedure is coupled with a compression finite-volume flow solver which provides the velocity and pressure fields. A modeled PDF equation for compressible flows, capable of treating flows with shock waves and suitable to the present coupling scheme, is proposed and tested. Convergence of the combined finite-volume Monte Carlo solution procedure is discussed. Two super sonic diffusion flames are studied using the proposed PDF model and the results are compared with experimental data; marked improvements over solutions without PDF are observed.

Hsu, A. T.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Predicting the performance of solar illuminated thermal louvers for the GOES I, J, K instruments

The new series of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES I,J,K,L/M) will have two earth viewing optical instruments which use passive, bi-metallic actuated, blade-type louvers for their thermal control. GOES is a three-axis stabilized spacecraft in geostationary orbit, which means that sun can enter the instrument apertures for several hours before and after local midnight. The solar heat absorbed in the instruments causes the louvers to open thus allowing the radiators to reject the heat. These louvered radiators are located on the north face of the instruments. To perform thermal analyses of the instruments, a modeling method was needed for predicting the thermal characteristics of the louvers. This task was complicated by the fact that sun shines on the louvers during the summer season. A Monte Carlo analytical technique was used to develop absorbed power and effective emissivity tables for the louvers. These tables could be used with the instrument math models to predict the thermal behavior of the instruments. Data from the Monte Carlo analysis showed that solar entrapment could have a significant effect on the heat rejection capability of the louvered radiators.

Mengers, David↗