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DOE OSTI2015

Dynamic Modeling of Learning in Emerging Energy Industries: The Example of Advanced Biofuels in the United States; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

This paper (and its supplemental model) presents novel approaches to modeling interactions and related policies among investment, production, and learning in an emerging competitive industry. New biomass-to-biofuels pathways are being developed and commercialized to support goals for U.S. advanced biofuel use, such as those in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. We explore the impact of learning rates and techno-economics in a learning model excerpted from the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM), developed by the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to explore the impact of biofuel policy on the evolution of the biofuels industry. The BSM integrates investment, production, and learning among competing biofuel conversion options that are at different stages of industrial development. We explain the novel methods used to simulate the impact of differing assumptions about mature industry techno-economics and about learning rates while accounting for the different maturity levels of various conversion pathways. A sensitivity study shows that the parameters studied (fixed capital investment, process yield, progress ratios, and pre-commercial investment) exhibit highly interactive effects, and the system, as modeled, tends toward market dominance of a single pathway due to competition and learning dynamics.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Dynamic Modeling of Learning in Emerging Energy Industries: The Example of Advanced Biofuels in the United States: Preprint

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Dynamic Modeling of Learning in Emerging Energy Industries: The Example of Advanced Biofuels in the United States

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS2018

Assurance of Model-Based Fault Diagnosis

Autonomy is an increasingly important technology for robotic scientific and commercial spacecraft. An important motivation for developing onboard autonomy is to enable quick response to dynamic environment and situations, including fault conditions that a spacecraft may encounter. The reliability of such autonomous capabilities depends on the quality of their knowledge of a spacecraft’s health state. Model-based approaches to fault management, i.e. model-based fault diagnosis (MBFD), is one approach to continuously verify correct behavior in addition to diagnosing symptoms to estimate the spacecraft’s health state. The proper functioning of MBFD is dependent on 1) the quality of the model that is analyzed and compared to the outputs of onboard sensors to estimate the system’s health state, and 2) the correct functioning of the diagnosis engine that interrogates the model and compares its analysis to observed system behavior. We are currently developing Verification and Validation (V&V) approaches to provide the necessary confidence that MBFD systems are correctly estimating the health of on-board spacecraft components and systems. Our work is intended to narrow the gap between the rapidly maturing field of ModelBased System Engineering (including MBFD) and the less-well understood area of identifying and applying appropriate V&V techniques to MBFD. Our effort is investigating three areas: 1) developing V&V techniques for the diagnostic model, 2) developing V&V techniques for the diagnostic engine in isolation, and 3) developing V&V techniques for the diagnostic engine and model in combination. This paper describes the work we have completed in the first area. We describe our approach to selecting a system to be represented by a model, the approach to modeling the system, the verification approach we developed for the model, and the results of the verification activity. We conclude with a description of the work remaining in the last two areas, which will be addressed over the next two years.

Chung, Seung↗

DOE OSTI2019

Disentangling the Effects of Temperature, Moisture, and Substrate Availability on Soil CO 2 Efflux

Soil respiration ($R_s$), the largest carbon emission flux in ecosystems, is usually modeled as an empirically parameterized function of temperature, and sometimes water availability. The likely contribution by other factors, such as carbohydrate substrate supply from photosynthesis, has been recognized, but modeling capacity to use this information is limited. Wavelet transformations of the residuals of a seasonal Q 10 temperature response model indicated structure at different temporal scales. In this work, we hypothesize that this indicates the lack of explicit representation of relevant processes in the models. Using cross-spectral analysis, we found that time series of photosynthetically active radiation explained most of the diurnal variation, temperature, explained variability at multiple time scales (diurnal-synoptic), whereas volumetric soil water content correlated with variability in Rs at scales 15-30 days. The results suggest that the time domains of influence for different driving variables of $R_s$ are discrete, and largely nonoverlapping, and represent functional relationships between soil biological activity and its constraints. Analysis of phase angles showed that $R_s$ lagged photosynthetically active radiation by 1.5-3.0 hr. As this time lag was the same in both young and mature trees, with more than fivefold difference in transport distances, we hypothesize that this finding adds to the body of literature that support the pressure-concentration-wave model of carbohydrate availability in plants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Matching ecohydrological processes and scales of banded vegetation patterns in semiarid catchments

While the claim that water-carbon interactions result in spatially coherent vegetation patterning is rarely disputed in many arid and semiarid regions, the significance of the detailed water pathways and other high frequency variability remain an open question. How the short temporal scale meteorological fluctuations form the long-term spatial variability of available soil water in complex terrains due to the various hydrological, land surface, and vegetation dynamic feedbacks frames the scope of the work here. Knowledge of the detailed mechanistic feedbacks among soil, plants, and the atmosphere will lead to advances in our understanding of plant water availability in arid and semiarid ecosystems and will provide insights for future model development concerning vegetation pattern formation. In this paper, quantitative estimates of water fluxes and vegetation productivity are provided for a semiarid ecosystem with established vegetation bands on hillslopes using numerical simulations. A state-of-the-science process based ecohydrological model is used, which resolves hydrological and plant physiological processes at the relevant space and time scales, for relatively small periods (e.g., decades) of mature ecosystems (i.e., spatially static vegetation distribution). To unfold the mechanisms that shape the spatial distribution of soil moisture, plant productivity and the relevant surface/subsurface and atmospheric water fluxes, idealized hillslope numerical experiments are constructed, where the effects of soil type, slope steepness, and overland flow accumulation area are quantified. Those mechanisms are also simulated in the presence of complex topography features on landscapes. Finally, the main results are (a) short temporal scale meteorological variability and accurate representation of the scales at which each ecohydrological process operates are crucial for the estimation of the spatial variability of soil water availability to the plant root zone; (b) water fluxes such as evapotranspiration, infiltration, runoff-run-on, and subsurface soil water movement have a dynamic short temporal scale behavior that determines the long-term spatial organization of plant soil water availability in ecosystems with established vegetation patterns; and (c) hypotheses concerning the hydrological responses that can lead to vegetation pattern formation have to accommodate realistic and physically based representations of the fast dynamics of key ecohydrological fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Economic evaluation on CO₂-EOR of onshore oil fields in China

Carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO₂-EOR) and sequestration in depleted oil reservoirs is a plausible option for utilizing anthropogenic CO₂ to increase oil production while storing CO₂ underground. Evaluation of the storage resources and cost of potential CO₂-EOR projects is an essential step before the commencement of large-scale deployment of such activities. In this paper, a hybrid techno-economic evaluation method, including a performance model and cost model for onshore CO₂-EOR projects, has been developed based on previous studies. Total 296 onshore oil fields, accounting for about 70% of total mature onshore oil fields in China, were evaluated by the techno-economic method. The key findings of this study are summarized as follows: (1) deterministic analysis shows there are approximately 1.1 billion tons (7.7 billion barrels) of incremental crude oil and 2.2 billion tons CO₂ storage resource for onshore CO₂-EOR at net positive revenue within the Chinese oil fields reviewed under the given operating strategy and economic assumptions. (2) Sensitivity study highlights that the cumulative oil production and cumulative CO₂ storage resource are very sensitive to crude oil price, CO₂ cost, project lifetime, discount rate and tax policy. High oil price, short project lifetime, low discount rate, low CO₂ cost, and low tax policy can greatly increase the net income of the oil enterprise, incremental oil recovery and CO₂ storage resource. (3) From this techno-economic evaluation, the major barriers to large-scale deployment of CO₂-EOR include complex geological conditions, low API of crude oil, high tax policy, and lack of incentives for the CO₂-EOR project.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2018

May reversible water uptake/release by hydrates explain the thermal expansion of cement paste? ÔÇö Arguments from an inverse multiscale analysis

Quasi-instantaneous thermal expansion of cement pastes is governed by the relative humidity (RH) within their air-filled pores and by the decrease/increase of this internal RH resulting from a temperature decrease/increase. The latter effect is traced back to quasi-instantaneous water uptake/release by cement hydrates, using microporomechanics and a three-scale representation of mature cement pastes. Partially saturated gel and capillary pores are considered to be connected and spherical, with radii following exponential distributions. The Mori-Tanaka scheme provides the scale transition from effective pore pressures to eigenstrains at the cement paste level. This modeling approach, together with considering mass conservation of water, allows for downscaling macroscopic thermal expansion coefficients, so as to identify the molecular water uptake/release characteristics of the hydrates. The latter characteristics are mixture-independent, as shown by their use for predicting the thermal expansion coefficients of different mature cement pastes, with w/c-ratios ranging from 0.50 to 0.70.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2013

Advanced simulation capability for environmental management - current status and future applications

The U.S. Department of Energy (US DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM), Office of Soil and Groundwater (EM-12), is supporting development of the Advanced Simulation Capability for Environmental Management (ASCEM). ASCEM is a state-of-the-art scientific tool and approach that is currently aimed at understanding and predicting contaminant fate and transport in natural and engineered systems. ASCEM is a modular and open source high-performance computing tool. It will be used to facilitate integrated approaches to modeling and site characterization, and provide robust and standardized assessments of performance and risk for EM cleanup and closure activities. The ASCEM project continues to make significant progress in development of capabilities, with current emphasis on integration of capabilities in FY12. Capability development is occurring for both the Platform and Integrated Tool-sets and High-Performance Computing (HPC) multi-process simulator. The Platform capabilities provide the user interface and tools for end-to-end model development, starting with definition of the conceptual model, management of data for model input, model calibration and uncertainty analysis, and processing of model output, including visualization. The HPC capabilities target increased functionality of process model representations, tool-sets for interaction with Platform, and verification and model confidence testing. The integration of the Platform and HPC capabilities were tested and evaluated for EM applications in a set of demonstrations as part of Site Applications Thrust Area activities in 2012. The current maturity of the ASCEM computational and analysis capabilities has afforded the opportunity for collaborative efforts to develop decision analysis tools to support and optimize radioactive waste disposal. Recent advances in computerized decision analysis frameworks provide the perfect opportunity to bring this capability into ASCEM. This will allow radioactive waste disposal to be evaluated based on decision needs, such as disposal, closure, and maintenance. Decision models will be used in ASCEM to identify information/data needs, and model refinements that might be necessary to effectively reduce uncertainty in waste disposal decisions. Decision analysis models start with tools for framing the problem, and continue with modeling both the science side of the problem (for example, inventories, source terms, fate and transport, receptors, risk, etc.), and the cost side of the problem, which could include costs of implementation of any action that is chosen (e.g., for disposal or closure), and the values associated with those actions. The cost side of the decision problem covers economic, environmental and societal costs, which correspond to the three pillars of sustainability (economic, social, and environmental). These tools will facilitate stakeholder driven decision analysis to support optimal sustainable solutions in ASCEM. In this paper the current state of ASCEM is first described, followed by a description of the approach that will be taken to augment ASCEM for simulating fate and transport with tools that facilitate a top-down or systems level view of finding optimal, sustainable solutions to difficult environmental (including radioactive waste) problems. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2015

Chronic alcohol consumption enhances iNKT cell maturation and activation

Alcohol consumption exhibits diverse effects on different types of immune cells. NKT cells are a unique T cell population and play important immunoregulatory roles in different types of immune responses. The effects of chronic alcohol consumption on NKT cells remain to be elucidated. Using a mouse model of chronic alcohol consumption, we found that alcohol increases the percentage of NKT cells, especially iNKT cells in the thymus and liver, but not in the spleen or blood. Alcohol consumption decreases the percentage of NK1.1{sup −} iNKT cells in the total iNKT cell population in all of the tissues and organs examined. In the thymus, alcohol consumption increases the number of NK1.1{sup +}CD44{sup hi} mature iNKT cells but does not alter the number of NK1.1{sup −} immature iNKT cells. A BrdU incorporation assay shows that alcohol consumption increases the proliferation of thymic NK1.1{sup −} iNKT cells, especially the NK1.1{sup −}CD44{sup lo} Stage I iNKT cells. The percentage of NKG2A{sup +} iNKT cells increases in all of the tissues and organs examined; whereas CXCR3{sup +} iNKT cells only increases in the thymus of alcohol-consuming mice. Chronic alcohol consumption increases the percentage of IFN-γ-producing iNKT cells and increases the blood concentration of IFN-γ and IL-12 after in vivo α-galactosylceramide (αGalCer) stimulation. Consistent with the increased cytokine production, the in vivo activation of iNKT cells also enhances the activation of dendritic cells (DC) and NK, B, and T cells in the alcohol-consuming mice. Taken together the data indicate that chronic alcohol consumption enhances iNKT cell maturation and activation, which favors the Th1 immune response. - Highlights: • Chronic alcohol consumption increases iNKT cells in the thymus and liver • Chronic alcohol consumption enhances thymic Stage I iNKT cell proliferation • Chronic alcohol consumption enhances iNKT cell maturation in thymus and periphery • Chronic alcohol consumption induces Th1 immune response upon iNKT cell in vivo activation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Demonstration of NEAMS Multiphysics Tools for Fast Reactor Applications

The SHARP toolkit is a high-fidelity reactor simulation tool developed under the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Campaign. SHARP toolkit is comprised of the neutronics module PROTEUS thermal hydraulics module Nek5000, and structural mechanics module Diablo. During FY17 and FY18, the PROTEUS and Nek5000 components of SHARP were applied to solve challenging sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) problems. In particular, selected hot channel factors (HCF) for a prototype metal-fueled SFR design (the AFR-100) were analyzed in high fidelity, and the “SHARP zooming capability” for SFRs was developed and demonstrated to reduce computational expense for full core problems in cases where detailed data is needed in selected fuel assemblies. After the previous success applying SHARP to challenging SFR problems, the focus in FY19 and FY20 expanded to additional fast reactor applications including lead cooled fast reactors (LFR) and sodium cooled fast reactors (SFR). The specific technical tasks were (1) assessment of hot channel factors for LFR, for which no data currently exists, and (2) demonstration of zooming capability in assemblies of the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR). First-of-a-kind hot channel factor (HCF) estimation for LFR with high fidelity codes (PROTEUS/Nek5000) was successfully demonstrated in this study which began in FY19 and continued in FY20. Selected HCF were computed and compared with SFR data (AFR-100, EBR-II). The findings confirm that different reactor types, design parameters and uncertainties lead to different HCFs. Careful estimation of HCF for a specific design is necessary to obtain appropriate HCFs. In addition to improvement in HCF accuracy, high fidelity tools generate data to help the designer better understand the mechanism of the impact from these uncertainties. For example, the impact of cladding thickness manufacturing tolerance resulted in non-intuitive effects in the corner pins of the LFR assembly. This procedure of computing HCF using high fidelity models shows promise and flexibility for being repeated for any arbitrary reactor of choice. Along with the application on SFR and LFR, the capability of the tools has also been matured to deal with different reactor types and designs. Progress was made towards extending the previously demonstrated SHARP zooming capability to non-fueled SFR assemblies. In particular, in FY19 a gamma transport capability was implemented in both high fidelity PROTEUS solvers in order to accurately account for heat deposition caused by gamma particles, which accounts for ~10% of total core power. Neutronics verification cases were carried out for a candidate Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) design using the new gamma transport capability in PROTEUS. Comparisons were made with continuous energy MCNP calculations and shown to agree well. The models for the full core design with heterogeneous control and fuel assemblies is in progress for PROTEUS-SN and completed with MCNP. The MCNP power distributions were transferred to Nek5000 to perform thermal hydraulic calculations of the control and fuel assembly.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fine-root dynamics vary with soil depth and precipitation in a lown-utrient tropical forest in the Central Amazonia

A common assumption in tropical ecology is that root systems respond rapidly to climatic cues but that most of that response is limited to the uppermost layer of the soil, with relatively limited changes in deeper layers. However, this assumption has not been tested directly, preventing models from accurately predicting the response of tropical forests to environmental change. We measured seasonal dynamics of fine roots in a Central Amazonia mature forest using minirhizotrons to 90 cm depth, which were calibrated with fine roots extracted from soil cores. Root productivity and mortality in superficial soil layers were positively correlated with precipitation, whereas root standing length was greater during the dry periods at the deeper layers. Contrary to historical assumptions, a large fraction of fine-root standing biomass (46%) and productivity (41%) were found in soil layers deeper than 30 cm. Furthermore, root turnover decreased linearly with soil depth. Our findings demonstrate a strong relationship between fine-root dynamics and precipitation regimes in Central Amazonia. Our results also emphasize the importance of deep roots for accurate estimates of primary productivity and the interaction between roots and carbon, water, and nutrients.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

PROBING THE PULSAR ORIGIN OF THE ANOMALOUS POSITRON FRACTION WITH AMS-02 AND ATMOSPHERIC CHERENKOV TELESCOPES

Recent observations by PAMELA, Fermi-LAT, and AMS-02 have conclusively indicated a rise in the cosmic-ray positron fraction above 10 GeV, a feature which is impossible to mimic under the paradigm of secondary positron production with self-consistent Galactic cosmic-ray propagation models. A leading explanation for the positron fraction rise is an additional source of electron-positron pairs, for example one or more mature, energetic, and relatively nearby pulsars. We point out that any one of two well-known nearby pulsars, Geminga and Monogem, can satisfactorily provide enough positrons to reproduce AMS-02 observations. A smoking-gun signature of this scenario is an anisotropy in the arrival direction of the cosmic-ray electrons and positrons, which may be detectable by existing, or future, telescopes. The predicted anisotropy level is, at present, consistent with limits from Fermi-LAT and AMS-02. We argue that the large collecting area of atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes (ACTs) makes them optimal tools for detecting such an anisotropy. Specifically, we show that much of the proton and {gamma}-ray background which affects measurements of the cosmic-ray electron-positron spectrum with ACTs may be controlled in the search for anisotropies. We conclude that observations using archival ACT data could already constrain or substantiate the pulsar origin of the positron anomaly, while upcoming instruments (such as the Cherenkov Telescope Array) will provide strong constraints on the source of the rising positron fraction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Variable Grid Method

NETL’s Variable Grid Method (VGM) is a novel approach that leverages GIS capabilities to simultaneously visualize and quantify spatial data trends and underlying data uncertainty. The flexible VGM approach utilizes a range of spatial datasets and uncertainty quantifications, which can be calculated using data related to sample density, sample variance, interpolation error, multiple simulations, etc., to create an integrated visualization of data and uncertainty. The intuitive manner of the VGM helps communicate the relationship between uncertainty and spatial data to effectively guide research, support advanced computation analyses, and helps inform research, management and policy decisions. The VGM approach is being developed into a standalone tool designed to integrate into a variety of research workflows, providing users the capabilities to utilize the VGM for their datasets, analysis, and models in support of their decision making needs. The VGM approach was developed as part of NETL’s Offshore portfolio. It was further matured and utilized in projects associated with both NETL’s Unconventional Resources and Carbon Storage portfolios, and is now being further developed by Varigrid, LLC.

Carbon Storage↗

DOE OSTI2014

A Distributed Control System Prototyping Environment to Support Control Room Modernization

Operators of critical processes, such as nuclear power production, must contend with highly complex systems, procedures, and regulations. Developing human-machine interfaces (HMIs) that better support operators is a high priority for ensuring the safe and reliable operation of critical processes. Human factors engineering (HFE) provides a rich and mature set of tools for evaluating the performance of HMIs, however the set of tools for developing and designing HMIs is still in its infancy. Here we propose a rapid prototyping approach for integrating proposed HMIs into their native environments before a design is finalized. This approach allows researchers and developers to test design ideas and eliminate design flaws prior to fully developing the new system. We illustrate this approach with four prototype designs developed using Microsoft’s Windows Presentation Foundation (WPF). One example is integrated into a microworld environment to test the functionality of the design and identify the optimal level of automation for a new system in a nuclear power plant. The other three examples are integrated into a full-scale, glasstop digital simulator of a nuclear power plant. One example demonstrates the capabilities of next generation control concepts; another aims to expand the current state of the art; lastly, an HMI prototype was developed as a test platform for a new control system currently in development at U.S. nuclear power plants. WPF possesses several characteristics that make it well suited to HMI design. It provides a tremendous amount of flexibility, agility, robustness, and extensibility. Distributed control system (DCS) specific environments tend to focus on the safety and reliability requirements for real-world interfaces and consequently have less emphasis on providing functionality to support novel interaction paradigms. Because of WPF’s large user-base, Microsoft can provide an extremely mature tool. Within process control applications,WPF is platform independent and can communicate with popular full-scope process control simulator vendor plant models and DCS platforms.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS1993

Development of a large scale Chimera grid system for the Space Shuttle Launch Vehicle

The application of CFD techniques to large problems has dictated the need for large team efforts. This paper offers an opportunity to examine the motivations, goals, needs, problems, as well as the methods, tools, and constraints that defined NASA's development of a 111 grid/16 million point grid system model for the Space Shuttle Launch Vehicle. The Chimera approach used for domain decomposition encouraged separation of the complex geometry into several major components each of which was modeled by an autonomous team. ICEM-CFD, a CAD based grid generation package, simplified the geometry and grid topology definition by provoding mature CAD tools and patch independent meshing. The resulting grid system has, on average, a four inch resolution along the surface.

Pearce, Daniel G.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Protection against UV and X-ray cataracts using dynamic light scattering

Static and dynamic light scattering (SLS and DLS) analysis was used to investigate the aggregation of lens proteins in a hyperbaric oxygen (HBO)/guinea pig in vivo model for nuclear cataract. Nuclear cataract, an opacity which occurs in the center of the lens, is a major type of human maturity-onset cataract for which the cause is not well-understood. HBO is commonly used in major hospitals for treating complications such as poor wound healing due to impaired blood circulation. It is known that treatment of human patients with HBO for extended periods of time can produce nuclear cataract. Guinea pigs, initially 18 months old, were treated with HBO (2.5 atm of 100% O2 for 2.5 hr) 3x per week for 7 months to increase tie level of lens nuclear light scattering. Age-matched animals were used for controls. The eyes of the animals were analyzed in vivo using an integrated static and DLS fiber optic probe in collaboration with the NASA group. DLS in vivo was used to measure the size of lens proteins at 50 different locations across the optical axis of the guinea pig lens.

Giblin, Frank J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Convergent Aeronautics Solutions Project

NASA is committed to transforming our aviation system to best meet demands and opportunities of the future. With a vision of safe, efficient, flexible, and environmentally sustainable air transportation, the NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate is conducting research and development to address future needs of the aviation community, the Nation, and the world. While our NASA Aeronautics vision and strategy reaches into the next 25 years and beyond, we recognize that our vision and strategy must be responsive to new discoveries and emerging markets. For this reason, we are empowering our research community to redefine the future of aviation by dreaming up convergent/transformative ideas and studying if those ideas are possible. By modeling the new NASA Aeronautics' Convergent Aeronautics Solutions (CAS) Project after the venture capital community, we created opportunities for teams of intrapreneurs to mature their ideas into concepts through rapid feasibility studies. The CAS Project expects teams to consider the complexities and potential benefits of multi-disciplinary solutions and to leverage technology advances from outside the field of aeronautics. We also expect teams to explore their concepts in a rapid, iterative manner that allows them to learn and adjust their research approach. Within a year or two, teams are responsible for reporting on the feasibility of their concept. The findings inform NASA Aeronautics strategic planning and further investment. This presentation will give an overview of CAS.

Transformative↗