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NASA NTRS2003

Platinum-group elements (PGE) and Rhenium in Marine Sediments across the Cretaceous-Tertiary Boundary: Constraints on Re-PGE Transport in the Marine Environment

The nature of Re-platinum-group element (PGE; Pt, Pd, Ir, Os, Ru) transport in the marine environment was investigated by means of marine sediments at and across the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary (KTB) at two hemipelagic sites in Europe and two pelagic sites in the North and South Pacific. A traverse across the KTB in the South Pacific pelagic clay core found elevated levels of Re, Pt, Ir, Os, and Ru, each of which is approximately symmetrically distributed over a distance of approx. 1.8 m across the KTB. The Re-PGE abundance patterns are fractionated from chondritic relative abundances: Ru, Pt, Pd, and Re contents are slightly subchondritic relative to Ir, and Os is depleted by approx. 95% relative to chondritic Ir proportions. A similar depletion in Os (approx. 90%) was found in a sample of the pelagic KTB in the North Pacific, but it is enriched in Ru, Pt, Pd, and Re relative to Ir. The two hemipelagic KTB clays have near-chondritic abundance patterns. The approx. 1.8-m-wide Re-PGE peak in the pelagic South Pacific section cannot be reconciled with the fallout of a single impactor, indicating that postdepositional redistribution has occurred. The elemental profiles appear to fit diffusion profiles, although bioturbation could have also played a role. If diffusion had occurred over approx. 65 Ma, the effective diffusivities are approx. 10(exp -13)sq cm/s, much smaller than that of soluble cations in pore waters (approx. 10(exp -5) sq cm/s). The coupling of Re and the PGEs during redistribution indicates that postdepositional processes did not significantly fractionate their relative abundances. If redistribution was caused by diffusion, then the effective diffusivities are the same. Fractionation of Os from Ir during the KTB interval must therefore have occurred during aqueous transport in the marine environment. Distinctly subchondritic Os/Ir ratios throughout the Cenozoic in the South Pacific core further suggest that fractionation of Os from Ir in the marine environment is a general process throughout geologic time because most of the inputs of Os and Ir into the ocean have OsAr ratios greater than or = 1. Mass balance calculations show that Os and Re burial fluxes in pelagic sediments account for only a small fraction of the riverine Os (less than 10%) and Re (less than 0.1%) inputs into the oceans. In contrast, burial of Ir in pelagic sediments is similar to the riverine Ir input, indicating that pelagic sediments are a much larger repository for Ir than for Os and Re. If all of the missing Os and Re is assumed to reside in anoxic sediments in oceanic margins, the calculated burial fluxes in anoxic sediments are similar to observed burial fluxes. However, putting all of the missing Os and Re into estuarine sediments would require high concentrations to balance the riverine input and would also fail to explain the depletion of Os at pelagic KTB sites, where at most approx. 25% of the K-T impactor's Os could have passed through estuaries. If Os is preferentially sequestered in anoxic marine environments, it follows that the OsAr ratio of pelagic sediments should be sensitive to changes in the rates of anoxic sediment deposition. There is thus a clear fractionation of Os and Re from Ir in precipitation out of sea water in pelagic sections. Accordingly, it is inferred here that Re and Os are removed from sea water in anoxic marine depositional regimes.

Lee, Cin-Ty Aeolus↗

DOE OSTI2023

Recent Progress in Developing Nb 3 Sn Conductors With Increased Specific Heat

A possible approach to reducing Nb 3 Sn magnet training is to increase the energy margin of Nb 3 Sn conductors by enhancing their specific heat (C p ). For this study, we have been developing Nb 3 Sn conductors with increased C p by incorporating substances with high C p at 2-10 K based on a conductor design that is compatible with standard Nb 3 Sn strand production. In the past couple of years our efforts have been mainly focused on improving strand design (e.g., position of high- C p filaments, thickness of the Cu tube for the high-C p filaments, ratio of the Cu powder to the high-C p substance, filament spacing, etc.) in order to obtain good strand drawability and to reduce degradation after rolling, which is needed for production of Rutherford cables. We also tried a new high-C p substance, Gd 2 O 2 S, and verified that it has much higher C p over the whole magnetic field range than the Gd 2 O 3 we used before. With that development work we can now produce high-C p strands with good drawability and low levels of degradation after rolling. This paper reports our findings and the current status of the development of high-C p Nb 3 Sn conductors.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS2015

Sulfur and Metal Fertilization of the Lower Continental Crust

Mantle-derived melts and metasomatic fluids are considered to be important in the transport and distribution of trace elements in the subcontinental lithospheric mantle. However, the mechanisms that facilitate sulfur and metal transfer from the upper mantle into the lower continental crust are poorly constrained. This study addresses this knowledge gap by examining a series of sulfide- and hydrous mineral-rich alkaline mafic-ultramafic pipes that intruded the lower continental crust of the Ivrea-Verbano Zone in the Italian Western Alps. The pipes are relatively small (<300 m diameter) and primarily composed of a matrix of subhedral to anhedral amphibole (pargasite), phlogopite and orthopyroxene that enclose sub-centimeter-sized grains of olivine. The 1 to 5 m wide rim portions of the pipes locally contain significant blebby and disseminated Fe-Ni-Cu-PGE sulfide mineralization.Stratigraphic relationships, mineral chemistry, geochemical modeling and phase equilibria suggest that the pipes represent open-ended conduits within a large magmatic plumbing system. The earliest formed pipe rocks were olivine-rich cumulates that reacted with hydrous melts to produce orthopyroxene, amphibole and phlogopite.Sulfides precipitated as immiscible liquid droplets that were retained within a matrix of silicate crystals and scavenged metals from the percolating hydrous melt. New high-precision chemical abrasion TIMS-UPb dating of zircons from one of the pipes indicates that these pipes were emplaced at 249.1+/-0.2 Ma, following partial melting of lithospheric mantle pods that were metasomatized during the Eo-Variscan oceanic to continental subduction (approx. 420-310 Ma). The thermal energy required to generate partial melting of the metasomatized mantle was most likely derived from crustal extension, lithospheric decompression and subsequent asthenospheric rise during the orogenic collapse of the Variscan belt (<300 Ma). Unlike previous models, outcomes from this study suggest a significant temporal gap between the occurrence of mantle metasomatism, subsequent partial melting and emplacement of the pipes.We argue that this multi-stage process is a very effective mechanism to fertilize the commonly dry and refractory lower continental crust in metals and volatiles. During the four-dimensional evolution of the thermo-tectonic architecture of any given terrain, metals and volatiles stored in the lower continental crust may become available as sources for subsequent ore-forming processes, thus enhancing the prospectivity of continental block margins for a wide range of mineral systems.

Marek Locmelis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Tin-Essako 001: A Metal-Rich Ureilite?

Introduction: Metal-rich achondrites include a variety of types, and likely have a variety of origins. Models range from gravitational mixing at the core-mantle boundaries of differentatiated asteroids, to complex impact mixing scenarios. We describe a new type of metal-rich achondrite that might be the first metal-rich ureilite. Sample: Tin-Essako (TE) 001 (~4.3 g) was found in Mali in 2020 and purchased by Jay Piatek in 2021. It was classified as a metal-rich ungrouped achondrite, with olivine and oxygen isotope (d18O=8.2810‰, d17O=3.718‰, avg. 3) compositions suggesting affinity to ureilites [1]. We studied one polished section (~187.7 mm2) of TE 001. Petrography: TE 001 consists of ~60% metal and 40% silicates, heterogeneously distributed. The metal is largely fresh, but iron oxides (presumably terrestrial) occur along one edge and in some patches and veins in the interior. The silicates are dominantly olivine (≥90%), with melt-textured areas of plagioclase + Si-rich glass. Minor phases include chromite and carbon. Olivine occurs as rounded grains (up to ~2.5 mm) in metal, commonly with rims of melt-textured plagioclase + glass. Olivine also occurs in more massive areas having a “honeycomb” texture, with rounded olivine “cells” surrounded by an interstitial network of reduced olivine riddled with tiny metal grains, plus melt-textured plagioclase + Si-rich glass. Chromite occurs as subhedral to rounded grains; smaller grains (30-250 mm) are included in olivine and a few larger grains (400-500 mm) are isolated within metal. A carbon phase occurs as lacy-textured rims around olivine grains in metal, or small patches within metal. Mineral Compositions: The olivine (excluding interstitial areas) is Fo 73.9±0.5, with 0.25±0.02 wt.% CaO, 0.31±0.01 wt% Cr2O3, 0.01 wt.% NiO, and molar Fe/Mn=49.8±2.2 (53 analyses). Olivine in interstitial areas has Fo up to at least 91. Smaller chromite grains have Fe# (molar Fe/[Fe+Mg]) = 0.54±0.01, Cr# (molar Cr/[Cr+Al]) = 0.52±0.01, 0.52±0.02 wt.% V2O3 and 0.21±0.04 wt% ZnO (28 analyses). One larger grain is zoned from Fe# = 0.45, Cr# =0.52 to Fe# = 0.40, Cr# =0.57, and contains thin Al-rich lamellae not resolved by EMPA. One irregularly shaped patch of chromite included in olivine has Fe# =0.26 and contains no ZnO. Plagioclase laths are An ~53-60, with ≤0.01 wt.% K2O. Glass contains 75-76 wt% SiO2 and ~16 wt% Al2O3. The metal contains 5.2±0.2 wt% Ni, 0.46±0.02 wt.% Co, and 0.01±0.01 wt.% Cr, with Si and P below detection (168 analyses). Discussion: The olivine + chromite assemblage in TE 001 is similar to the most ferroan ureilites (Fo ~75-79 [2]), as are the oxygen isotopes [1]. The presence of a carbon phase supports this, although the identity of this phase (graphite as in ureilites?) remains to be determined. The “honeycomb” textured areas, in particular, the presence of olivine “reduction rims,” resemble shock-smelted olivine areas in ureilites [3], but interstitial melt-textured plagioclase laths + glass like those in TE 001 have not been reported in such (or any) ureilites. Olivine in TE 001 is marginally more ferroan than in the most FeO-rich ureilite, with Fe-Mg-Mn composition offset from the trend of olivine + low-Ca pyroxene ureilites similar to augite-bearing ureilites [4]. CaO and Cr2O3 contents are in the range of those in ureilite olivine [ ] , though Cr2O3 is at the extreme low end of the range [5]. Chromites (except the unusual one) have similar Fe# to the most ferroan primary chromites in ureilites [2], but distinctly lower Cr# (0.52 vs. 0.71). Metal compositions are with the range for metal in ureilites [7]. The absence of pyroxene and sulfide, and the high abundance of metal in TE 001, are unlike ureilites. One possibility is that a ferroan, chromite-bearing, pyroxene-poor ureilite was invaded (possibly due to impact) by a metallic liquid (low S content suggests very high temperature), resulting in complete melting of pyroxene and smelting of olivine, with rapid recrystallization of melted silicate as plagioclase + glass. Alternatively, a pre-existing metal-rich ureilite assemblage may have been impact melted. Additional types of data will be obtained to evaluate these hypotheses (i.e., is the metal indigenous?) and assess affinity to ureilites.

olivine↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cascadia Subduction Zone Fault Heterogeneities From Newly Detected Small Magnitude Earthquakes

The Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) is known to host M9 megathrust ruptures; however, no such event has occurred in historical observation. The distribution and characteristics of small- to moderate-sized earthquakes can be used to determine the behavior of the megathrust fault but are notably absent offshore the CSZ due to the distance from onshore seismometers. We use automated subspace detection coupled with an onshore-offshore seismic deployment to find small-magnitude earthquakes in the offshore seismogenic zone and analyze their locations in the context of interseismic locking and seismogenic zone extent. Here we detected and located 5,282 earthquakes, 4,096 of which had been previously undetected. We find that the downdip extent of the seismogenic zone as defined by interplate seismicity agrees with the 20% locking contour of the Schmalzle et al. (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GC005172) geodetic model and extends deeper than predicted by previous thermal models. We cannot determine the updip extent of the seismogenic zone; this may be due to a lack of templates for detection in the updip source area, stress shadows updip of asperity loading, and/or strong locking to the trench. We present a map of possible asperities determined by the small earthquakes in this study. Our asperity locations and extents show some, but not complete, agreement with the asperities modeled from the 1700 M9 rupture and geodetic locking models, and good agreement with the paleo-rupture extents determined from offshore turbidites and forearc basin-based asperity estimates. This highlights the need of continued offshore observations over time, and to elucidate fine-scale variation in locking.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic Continuous-time Flexibility Scheduling and Pricing in Wholesale Electricity Markets

Large-scale integration of intermittent renewable energy sources (RES) is calling for additional flexibility resources as well as more advanced modeling and optimization techniques to account for the increasing uncertainty and variability in power systems operation. As the RES integration gains momentum, the magnitude and frequency of their variations increase, which may trigger ramping scarcity events in real-time power systems operation. This necessitates revisiting the present definition of power systems flexibility and reserve services to reflect their robustness and adequacy towards sub-interval variations of the load and RES, as well as adjusting the operation models to accommodate the new reserve services. This project took a fundamental approach and aimed at developing continuous-time scheduling and pricing model that accurately models the continuous-time variations of load and RES and efficiently deploys the ramping capability of flexible resources to compensate the sources of variability and uncertainty in the market. In this regard, this project pursued the following goals: Developing stochastic multi-fidelity continuous-time optimization models for scheduling of energy storage (ES) systems and flexible loads in wholesale energy markets; Developing the theory and practices of continuous-time locational marginal pricing for valuating energy storage systems and flexible loads in wholesale energy markets; Developing function space solution approach to convert the proposed stochastic multi-fidelity continuous-time optimization models into tractable mixed-integer linear optimization models; and Defining flexibility reserve as a new type of reserve in markets that would enable ultimate participation of energy storage devices in provision of services to compensate the variability and uncertainty of RES in electricity markets. This project successfully completed all five major tasks defined in the SOPO, and produced 8 high-impact journal papers, 6 conference papers, 3 published U.S. patents, and one web-based software for continuous-time operation optimization of power systems. The application of the proposed flexibility reserve and the stochastic multi-fidelity continuous-time operation scheduling models would modify the forward commitment and schedule of generating units, ES devices and flexible loads, and would line up the resources in such a way that the composition of available resources is better prepared to respond to the sub-hourly variations of the load and renewable resources in real-time operation. Therefore, this project paves the way to sustainable, reliable, and economic integration of renewable energy resources in power system, supporting the progress towards reaching the national targets on energy independence. Even if the proposed models offers a radically different point of view as compared to existing models, it does not alter fundamentally the architecture of power systems operations, nor the complexity of the scheduling problem, so the integration of this project in power systems is extremely practical.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Regression for States Estimation and Forecasting in Power Grids

Real-time state estimation and forecasting are critical for the efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data. In the PhI-GPR method, we propose to compute the prior statistics offline by solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) governing the power grid dynamics. The short-term forecast of a power grid system dominated by wind generation is complicated by the stochastic nature of the wind and the resulting uncertainty in wind mechanical power. Here, we assume that the power grid dynamics are governed by swing equations, with the wind mechanical power fluctuating randomly in time. We solve these equations for the mean and covariances of the power grid states using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We demonstrate that the proposed PhI-GPR method can accurately forecast and estimate observed and unobserved states. For the considered problem, PhI-GPR has computational advantages over the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method: In PhI-GPR, ensembles are computed offline and independently of the data acquisition process, whereas for EnFK, ensembles are computed online with data acquisition, rendering real-time forecast more challenging. We also demonstrate that the PhI-GPR forecast is more accurate than the EnKF forecast when the random mechanical wind power is non-Markovian. In contrast, the two methods produce similar forecasts for the Markovian mechanical wind power. For observed states, we show that PhI-GPR provides a forecast comparable to the standard data-driven GPR; both forecasts are significantly more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast. We also show that the ARIMA forecast is more sensitive to observation frequency and measurement errors than the PhI-GPR forecast.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Empirical Indicators of Transmission Value in the Southeast United States

Concurrent differences in energy price between different parts of the electric grid are a key indicator of the value of additional transmission. In areas without a wholesale electricity market, such as the Southeast, an alternative indicator to price is the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) system lambda data. This economic metric represents the minimized marginal production costs of thermal generators, including fuel and other variable operation and maintenance expenses. Balancing Authorities report a single system lambda for their entire balancing area. Most Southeastern lambdas exhibit sufficient price variation to support a transmission valuation analysis, although incomplete accounting of congestion costs or scarcity rents during peak load hours may underestimate the true value of transmission capacity. With transmission value defined as the annual average hourly absolute price difference between two regions and FERC’s system lambda data used as a price proxy, we find the following results in the Southeast region during 2012-2023 (reported in $\$2024$/MWh): Intra‐regional findings: Annual averages historically span $\$2$–$\$28$/MWh and average $\$12$/MWh in SERTP and span $\$4$–$\$19$/MWh and average $\$9$/MWh in FRCC, disregarding transmission value driven by anomalous data. The ranges of transmission value reported here are large, spanning an order of magnitude in some cases. Much of this variation is driven by year-to-year changes, with 2022 having a particularly high intra-regional transmission value due to elevated natural gas prices. Inter‐regional corridors: Annual average transmission values across three broader regions range from $\$6$ to $\$28$/MWh with a long-term average of $\$11$/MWh. Much of the transmission value is concentrated in a small portion of hours. Across all regions, severe weather—particularly polar vortex events in January 2018, February 2021, and December 2022—drives the largest price spreads. Seasonal patterns also emerge, with summer afternoons and fall mornings contributing consistently to transmission value, as for example between MISO and SOCO in 2023.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Influence of Hybridization on the Capacity Value of PV and Battery Resources

Utility-scale systems that combine solar photovoltaic and battery (PV+battery) technologies are growing in popularity on the U.S. bulk power system. The business case for PV+battery systems depends on both their ability to reduce costs and their ability to generate value synergies associated with the provision of energy, capacity, and ancillary services. Capacity value can constitute a significant portion of the value PV+battery hybrids provide to the grid (e.g., through avoided or deferred capacity) and receive through revenues. Throughout this report, we define capacity value as the monetary value of a plant's contribution towards the planning reserve margin, which ultimately depends on market rules and structures. PV+battery hybrids do not always fit into current market structures because of the interactions between the PV and battery components. Unique considerations for the capacity value of PV+battery hybrids include the disparate nature of participation models for PV and battery technologies in existing market rules and the potential influence of a shared interconnection capacity; limitations imposed by a shared inverter; limited ability to charge the battery in advance of capacity events if charging must be sourced from the coupled PV; and challenges or uncertainties associated with co-optimizing the operations of the PV and battery components. Grid operators are currently considering how market structures can be modified to optimally determine the capacity value provided by PV+battery systems, and the rules of how they are integrated into markets are still being written. As with any resource, poorly designed rules could increase the cost of energy and reduce system reliability, while well-designed rules could allow markets to receive the full benefits hybrid systems can offer without overcompensating them for the services they provide. Well-designed rules for PV+battery systems must consider the unique aspects listed above, while leveraging the commonalities with existing resource types. In this report, we summarize the technical capability and market rules that influence the capacity value of PV+battery systems. We further discuss the potential tradeoffs between computational complexity and accuracy for the various ways in which grid operators can credit PV+battery systems for capacity. Finally, we describe markets for capacity, survey current wholesale market rules applying to PV+battery systems, and provide a snapshot of the current regulatory landscape for PV+battery systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

California Price Response Potential Study

California's energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by the increasing integration of renewable energy sources, the increased adoption of distributed energy resources, the electrification of end-use loads, and the growing need for grid efficiency. To address these challenges, recent revisions to the State’s Load Management Standards (LMS) require all of California’s large utilities and community choice aggregators (CCAs) to offer dynamic electricity pricing options to customers by 2027. Dynamic pricing, which involves varying electricity rates based on real-time supply and demand conditions, offers a promising solution for optimizing grid operations, reducing costs, and incentivizing efficient use of grid capacity. Effective implementation of dynamic pricing requires understanding the potential impacts on customer bills, system load, and the cost-effectiveness of automation technologies. This study aims to evaluate the load response of various end-use devices to hourly dynamic prices. The end-uses studied here are space cooling, space heating, water heating, crop irrigation, pool and spa pumps, and electric vehicle (EV) charging, all for both residential and commercial applications, except for crop irrigation. In 2030, these end uses are forecasted to account for 18% of annual electricity demand in the state, but 40% of demand in the peak net load hour. By modeling possible price-responsive load dispatch algorithms and assessing the resulting impacts on both individual bills and the overall grid, we seek to inform policymakers and utilities about the potential benefits and challenges associated with dynamic pricing, and considerations for the design of dynamic pricing tariffs. Additionally, we will explore the cost effectiveness of adopting automation technologies to enable devices to respond more effectively to real-time price signals. This study considers a range of price profiles, accounting for differences across utilities and customer classes, and presents scenarios for dynamic price design via variation in the percentage of total customer electric costs that are allocated dynamically (versus constituting a fixed portion of the hourly volumetric price). We present results focused primarily on 2030, forecasting electricity prices under both low and high-cost scenarios, to inform longer-term tariff design considerations. We design tariffs by starting with 2019 prices that were calculated according to CalFUSE guidance (CPUC, 2022) and that have been used in recent studies; these prices are all-in volumetric rates that vary by utility and are revenue-neutral to each customer class. They are developed by considering six electricity cost components that are allocated hourly based on system load indicators (gross and net load, and wholesale prices). These prices are forecasted to 2030 for low and high cost scenarios, considering recent trends in total electricity costs with and without years of substantial wildfire mitigation investments. These tariffs, which allocate all costs on an hourly basis, are considered our “Full” dynamic tariff design scenario, while two additional scenarios explore allocating a portion of costs as a flat volumetric charge: the “Medium” scenario allocates 50% of revenue dynamically (and keeps 50% flat), while the “Mild” scenario allocates 20% of revenue dynamically. The 20% dynamic allocation on the Mild scenario aims to represent a case where only the marginal operating costs of the grid are included in the dynamic price.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Valuing the Future Electric Grid: A Bid-Based Approach

Energy storage resources (ESRs) and other zero marginal cost (ZMC) resources have unique characteristics that are not fully captured in today’s electricity planning and operations modeling tools. Because the modeling assumptions used in these tools are simplified approximations of how operations and investment decisions occur in the real-world, accurately representing cost and operational characteristics are key for determining how these resources impact price formation. Questions such as—Where should we build new transmission? Will a small modular reactor earn enough revenue to participate in the future electric grid? Is retrofitting a coal plant with carbon capture technology economically feasible?—all require accurate electricity prices, which aren’t available from today’s electricity planning and operations modeling tools. As an example, production cost models (PCMs) are heavily utilized tools that determine the cost and reliability of the electric system. However, as PCMs were developed to help thermal generators manage their fuel inventories, production cost modeling is largely based on fuel prices. Because ESRs do not incur fuel costs, they are often modeled as ZMC resources. In reality, ESRs incur opportunity costs as well as technology-specific (degradation) costs that are non-trivial to calculate but are important for price formation. In this research, we identify options to incorporate more realistic opportunity and degradation costs in ESR bidding algorithms. Expanding available bidding assumptions allows energy system modelers to develop more accurate economic valuations for ESRs, leading to more accurate price formation from leading energy system modeling tools.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Regional Real-Time PV Spinning Reserve Estimator

Curtailed photovoltaic (PV) generation is a zero-marginal-cost spinning reserve that can be used for a number of active power control services. Unlike traditional spinning reserve providers, however, i.e., fossil-fueled generators, which have well-defined operating characteristics, e.g., available headroom or potential high limit (PHL), PV plants have by nature variable and uncertain operating characteristics. To ensure the effective coordination between PV plants and the system operator during an active power control event, accurate knowledge of the PV PHL is essential. It ensures that enough headroom is reserved by the PV plants to deliver the award services in real time and informs feasible dispatch decisions made by the market operator. To tackle this challenge, a novel reference-control grouping-based PV plant reserve estimation method has been proposed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under past projects funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office. The estimation method separates inverters within a plant into two groups: a control group and a reference group. While the reference group is reserved to operate at its PHL, the control group can be curtailed to provide the grid services. Real-time outputs from the reference inverters are used to estimate the PHL for the whole plant based on the ratio between capacities of the reference group and of the plant. This work further enhances the methodology by (1) improving the model accuracy through machine learning; (2) automating the reference inverter selection through correlation analysis; (3) considering estimation look-ahead windows; and (4) applying to regional spinning reserve estimation. Significant performance improvement has been observed based on real-world data collected by CAISO, Southern Company, and Terabase Energy. Compared with the original scaling method, the newly proposed machine learning-based approach reduces the estimation errors by 30% and 13% at the plant level and region level, respectively. Results obtained from this project are intended to be used by grid operators, market operators, balancing authorities, and PV plant owners and operators to facilitate PV participation in ancillary service markets. Regulators, policymakers, and system planners can also consider the results of this work in their decision-making processes. In addition to the performance improvement on the existing reference-control based grouping method, we also investigated how the variability of PV generation from a single PV inverter can be used to represent the variability of PV generation at the plant level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

WISP: Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies (Final Technical Report)

The complex interdependencies of cyber systems (sensors and communications), physical grids and associated electricity market operations make protecting electric power grids a significant challenge. The energy sector is constantly under new, targeted, advanced and dangerous cyber-attacks that have the potential to result in the loss of human life. These threats are further exacerbated by our need to modernize the grid. One focus of cyber security research in smart grids is the securing of the SCADA system through advanced intrusion detection systems (IDS) and bad data detection algorithms in state estimation. These methods either require full knowledge of the system topology and parameters or fail to understand the physical behaviors under attack. WISP (Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies) is designed to provide additional protection to the power grid using only publicly available data. In particular, WISP exploits the spatio-temporal nature of the real time locational marginal prices (LMPs), in conjunction with other information such as bids, weather, outages and load data to analyze anomalous power pricing behaviors and then correlate those observations to localize regions of interest and identify potential cyber events. WISP is non-intrusive as the tool is deployed as a service in the Cloud or on premise and provides reliable information to system operators for enhanced situational awareness, without impeding energy delivery functions. The WISP technology comprises three modules: the data-driven anomaly detection core, the vulnerability and risk analysis and the root cause analysis. The data-driven anomaly detection core performs the tasks of feature selection, anomaly detection and attack region localization. The vulnerability and risk analysis module provides system level information of the vulnerable variables and times, assisting the operators in selecting monitoring and protection nodes. The root cause analysis module takes the detection results and identifies potential operational conditions that contribute to the detected anomalies. In Phase I, we have demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of WISP. We developed a realistic electricity market simulator capable of generating normal and attack market data under various operational conditions. We developed a series of cyber-attack detection and analysis algorithms and evaluated them under multiple data sources. Finally, we integrated all modules into an end-to-end software, providing functions for data management, data analytics and visualization. Specifically, we have achieved: (i) real-time data acceptance from external utility interfaces with >99% acceptance rate; (ii) high performance anomaly detection algorithms with >98% detection accuracy and <0.1% false alarm rate; and (iii) ultra-low computing delay <50 milliseconds. Additionally, our team developed algorithms to identify the vulnerable variables in electricity market operations and root cause analysis functions to identify major contributors to the price spikes. These ancillary modules are necessary when deploying WISP in real world industry environment. In Phase II, we have demonstrated the effectiveness of WISP software on realistic largescale power systems. We performed red team testing for the Phase I WISP software and identified software vulnerabilities and implemented corresponding mitigation solutions. We adapted the electricity market simulator for the Texas synthetic 2000-bus system and generated datasets for the false data injection attacks. We created database and visualization interfaces for the Texas system and the ISO New England system. We performed software optimization in terms of operation efficiency, computing speed and detection accuracy. Finally, we tested the software on the Texas system and the ISO New England system and evaluated the detection performance. Overall, we achieved above 89% detection rate, below 3% false alarm rate and below 37 seconds of end-to-end detection delay.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗