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DOE OSTI2021

Halfway to Zero: Progress towards a Carbon-Free Power Sector

Sharply reducing carbon emissions is imperative to prevent the worst effects of climate change. Yet even in the power sector—often viewed as the lynchpin to economy-wide decarbonization, and where low-carbon solutions are increasingly plentiful and cost-effective—the pace and scale of the required transformation can be daunting. A review of historical trends, however, shows the progress the power sector has already made in reducing emissions. Fifteen years ago, many business-as-usual projections anticipated that annual carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from power supply in the United States would reach 3,000 million metric tons (MMT) in 2020. In fact, direct power-sector CO 2 emissions in 2020 were 1,450 MMT—roughly 50% below the earlier projections. By this metric, in only 15 years the country’s power sector has gone halfway to zero emissions. Other metrics also evolved differently than projected: total consumer electricity costs (i.e., bills) were 18% lower; costs to human health and the climate were 92% and 52% lower, respectively; and the number of jobs in electricity generation was 29% higher. Economic, technical, and policy factors contributed to this success, including sectoral changes, energy efficiency, wind and solar, continued operations of the nuclear fleet, and coal-to-gas fuel switching. This historical record demonstrates the ability of technological and policy changes to set the power sector on a dramatically different emissions trajectory. Past success, however, does not trivialize the challenges that remain for further decarbonization in the power sector and beyond. Nor does it offer a specific roadmap for how best to achieve additional power-sector emissions reductions. Numerous challenges confront a zero-emissions pathway, and future strategies will likely differ from those of the past. Many recent studies have assessed how to make further progress in decarbonizing the power sector on the pathway to decarbonizing the economy as a whole. We summarize the core results of those studies, but the primary goal of this report is to highlight the progress that has already been made in reducing power-sector emissions. As the country maps out a plan for further decarbonization, experience from the past 15 years offers two central lessons. First, policy and technology advancement are imperative to achieving significant emissions reductions. Second, our ability to predict the future is limited, and so it will be crucial to adapt as we gain policy experience and as technologies advance in unexpected ways.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Changes in When and Where People are Spending Time in Response to COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a significant change in driving behavior as people respond to the new environment. However, existing methods for analyzing driver behavior such as travel surveys and travel demand models are not suited for incorporating abrupt environmental disruptions. To address this, we analyze a set of high-resolution trip data and introduce two new metrics for quantifying driving behavioral shifts as a function of time, allowing us to compare the time periods before and after pandemic began. We apply these metrics to the Denver, Colorado metropolitan statistical area (MSA) to demonstrate the utility of the metrics. Then, we present a case study for comparing two distinct MSAs, Louisville, Kentucky; and Des Moines, Iowa which exhibit significant differences in the makeup of their labor markets. The results indicate that although the regions of study exhibit certain unique driving behavioral shifts, emerging trends can be seen when comparing between seemingly distinct regions. For instance, drivers in all three MSAs are generally shown to have spent more time at residential locations and less time in workplaces in the time period after the pandemic started. In addition, workplaces that may be incompatible with remote working, such as hospitals and certain retail locations, generally retained much of their pre-pandemic travel activity.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Installation Assignment Durations and Patterns of Army Personnel

The purpose of this document is to report on the development of personnel assignment duration statistical metrics and statistical descriptions for groups of Army personnel aggregated by rank, career management field, and other descriptors for 32 Continental United States (CONUS) Army installations. This information can be used for generating evidence-based measures of personnel exposure times associated with environmental health considerations at the installation and career management field levels. Assignment duration statistical descriptions were developed to provide temporal metrics for groups of personnel at Army installations as foundational data to support a variety of assessments. Statistical results of personnel assignment durations at the installation level are provided in several formats. The 50th percentile assignment duration represents the median number of days personnel in groups aggregated by rank and career management field spend at the 32 CONUS Army installations in this study. Likewise, other duration percentiles (90th) and quartiles of assignment durations for groups aggregated by rank and career management field spend at each installation were developed. Assignment path analysis provide statistical descriptions of assignment durations at Army installations throughout increments of time (e.g., 5 years, 10 years). Key groupings of assignment paths were achieved by analyzing the duration of assignments at installations in chronological order from entry throughout specified increments of military service to generate the most common assignment paths across the 32 CONUS Army installations in this study. The developed assignment duration analytics and duration statistical descriptions provide foundational temporal metrics for groups of personnel at 32 CONUS Army installations to support a variety of assessments including those by human resource planners and environmental health specialists.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Refinement of Salt Dissolution Inhibitor Requirements (Final Report)

At Savannah River Site (SRS), High-Level Waste is stored in below-grade carbon steel tanks. This waste in part consists of sludge, salt cake, and/or supernate. Preparation of this waste for future processing involves dissolution of the salt cake layer. The salt dissolution process can create conditions that leave the carbon steel tanks susceptible to localized corrosion. The salt to be dissolved contains high concentrations of nitrate, that once released, create an environment that may be conducive to pitting corrosion and/or stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of carbon steel. The salt dissolution process also liberates interstitial liquid trapped between the salt crystals. This liquid is initially high in nitrite and hydroxide concentration. High pH and greater ratios of nitrite to nitrate act as inhibitors to minimize corrosion of carbon steel in high nitrate environments. However, as dissolution proceeds, the concentration of nitrate will increase, while the hydroxide and nitrite concentration of the interstitial liquid will deplete and become insufficient to prevent the onset of corrosion attack. Tank blending and addition of inhibitors are used to ensure adequate concentrations of hydroxide and nitrite. However, this is not desirable during salt dissolution as it can reduce process efficiency and increase the amount of waste that needs processing. It has been proposed that these corrosion control limits be revisited to evaluate the corrosion susceptibility of carbon steel in environments that more closely resemble current operating conditions at SRS. An experimental matrix was designed to evaluate the use of the pitting factor for supernate chemistries characteristic to SRS, particularly during the salt dissolution process. Two electrochemical methods were identified to determine the susceptibility of A537 and A285 low-carbon steels to pitting corrosion with this chemistry envelope at temperatures up to 75 °C. The predominant electrochemical test method was Cyclic Potentiodynamic Polarization (CPP) studies. Through CPP, the pitting factor was used, based on Hanford Site corrosion studies, to accurately identify pitting susceptibility within the compositional range studied with some conservatism. Additionally, sulfate was determined to have no statistically significant influence, at concentrations up to 0.6 M, on pitting behavior in more concentrated solutions where other aggressive species govern pitting susceptibility. Where CPP was inconclusive, Modified ASTM G192 was successfully used to evaluate pitting susceptibility conditions and allowed for a pass/fail result to be determined. In all cases, the pitting factor was determined to be applicable to the simulants tested, with this metric accurately predicting incidences in which pitting occurred. Based upon the findings in this work, a pitting factor of 1.2 is being proposed to build in a safety factor and remain consistent with the Hanford Site approach. Additionally, a minimum pH limit of 12 is proposed to ensure carbon steel passivity and localized corrosion the primary degradation mechanism. Susceptibility to SCC was evaluated using a reduced matrix of tests at 75 °C. No failures due SCC were observed at open circuit. In addition, tests polarized anodically by 200 mV only resulted in failures for trials with pitting factors less than 0.86. However, a test with a passing condition based upon the pitting factor metric (pitting factor = 1.40) did exhibit a failure with an applied potential of +300 mV vs. OCP. This result is contrary to the prediction based upon the pitting factor, however, a polarization of 300 mV, or even 200 mV, from open circuit is substantial. The relationship between these testing parameters and service environment/conditions and the desired level of conservatism in the metric should be further evaluated in the determination of the significance of this result. While the pitting factor accurately predicted susceptibility to SCC at temperatures up to 75 °C and with positive overpotentials up to 200 mV, the relatively small sample matrix and failure of a passing pitting factor with a 300 mV polarization resulted in an inconclusive determination of whether the pitting factor may be used for predicting susceptibility to SCC at temperatures between 50 °C and 75 °C. As such, additional testing is recommended to evaluate the validity of the pitting factor for SCC susceptibility prediction at temperatures between 50 °C and 75 °C.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

SECARB Regional Project Assessment

The SECARB Cranfield Early Test Project was designed to safely demonstrate large-scale, long-term CO 2 injection and storage in a CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery (EOR) operation and associated saline reservoir. Storage during EOR operations has the potential to offset commercial costs, holding a significant promise for future large-scale deployment in the southeastern United States. Denbury Onshore LLC began CO 2 -EOR operations in July 2008 at the Cranfield oilfield located east of Natchez, Mississippi (Figure 1). The location offered an ideal setting to investigate storage monitoring at a commercial CO 2 -EOR operation. The field team, led by the Gulf Coast Carbon Center of the Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas at Austin, deployed the largest suite of monitoring, verification, accounting (MVA) technologies to collect data to assess long-term CO 2 utilization and storage. The CO 2 injection interval is within the 3,000-meter-deep fluvial lower Tuscaloosa Formation, a large and regionally extensive saline reservoir, at a broad four-way structural closure that defines the Cranfield oilfield. Tests were conducted in the oil-producing area as well as in the non-oil-producing brine aquifer. The CO 2 used during EOR operation was transported via pipeline from the Jackson Dome, a natural source of CO 2 . The study focused on four integrated research areas: (1) the High-Volume Injection Test area (HiVIT); (2) the Detailed Area of Study (DAS); (3) the Geomechanical area; and (4) the near-surface observatory, also called the “P-site.” CO 2 injection occurred at the HiVIT and the DAS (Figure 2 and Figure 3). The DAS was located down-dip of the oil-water interface of the Cranfield oilfield. The well layout included one injection well and two down-dip observation wells. The team was the first of the regional partnerships to monitor more than 1 million metric tons of CO 2 . At the end of the project, the team monitored more than 11 million metric tons of CO 2 injected and 5 million metric tons of CO 2 stored. The Cranfield Project was the fifth project worldwide, and the first such project in the United States, to reach this CO 2 injection volume while being monitored to demonstrate storage effectiveness.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measuring Societal Infrastructure Service Burden

Social Infrastructure Service Burden (abbr. Social Burden) is defined as the burden to a population for attaining services needed from infrastructure. Infrastructure services represent opportunities to acquire things that people need, such as food, water, healthcare, financial services, etc. Accessing services requires effort, disruption to schedules, expenditure of money, etc. Social Burden represents the relative hardship people experience in the process of acquiring needed services. Social Burden is comprised of several components. One component is the effort associated with travel to a facility that provides a needed service. Another component of burden is the financial impact of acquiring resources once at the providing location. We are applying Social Burden as a resilience metric by quantifying it following a major disruption to infrastructure. Specifically, we are most interested in quantifying this metric for events in which energy systems are a major component of the disruption. We do not believe this is the only such use of the Social Burden metric, and therefore we will also be exploring its use to describe blue-sky conditions of a society in the future. Furthermore, while the construct can be applied to a dynamically changing situation, we are applying it statically, directly following a disruption. This notably ignores recovery dynamics that are a key capability of resilient systems. This too will be explored in future research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

High Flux Isotope Reactor Low Enriched Uranium U-10Mo Fuel Design Parameters

Activities to convert the HFIR from HEU to LEU are ongoing as part of the US Department of Energy (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) nuclear nonproliferation mission. Design activities to study the conversion of HFIR from HEU to LEU fuel explored different fuel design features and shapes with a uranium-molybdenum (U-10Mo) monolithic alloy fuel. This high-density alloy contains 90 wt % uranium and 10 wt % molybdenum and has a uranium density of 15.318gU/cm 3 . The goal of these studies is to generate several candidate HFIR LEU fuel designs of varying fuel fabrication complexity that meet the current HEU performance metrics and safety requirements. Recent advancements in modeling and simulation tools and design methods enabled a thorough analysis of the available design space with U-10Mo fuel. A surrogate model used this analysis as training data to quickly determine the performance of a design given specific design parameters. An optimization module used this surrogate model to quickly search this multidimensional search space given specific desired performance characteristics. This approach was made possible by the large available design space with U-10Mo fuel. Shift, a Monte Carlo tool optimized for high-performance computing (HPC) architectures, was used for faster calculation and better data management for reactor physics simulations. Once most of these design studies were complete, a new suite called the Python HFIR Analysis and Measurement Engine (PHAME) was developed to connect all fuel design analysis steps, making design studies more efficient and reproducible. The post-processing capabilities of these new tools are leveraged for the information provided herein. Leveraging these tools, several candidate fuel designs were selected with varying levels of feature complexity and reactor performance. This report provides design feature details for four selected HFIR LEU U-10Mo fuel designs and their corresponding performance and safety metrics. Nominal best-estimate design parameters and irradiation conditions, including fission rate densities, power densities, heat fluxes, and cumulative fission densities, are provided. Simulations show that the high uranium density of U-10Mo fuel provides a large potential design space that enables various LEU designs to meet HEU core performance metrics and safety requirements with a power increase from 85 MW (HEU) to 95 MW or 100 MW (LEU).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Strategic Energy Management Program Persistence and Cost Effectiveness An Analysis of the SEM Program Landscape

This study examines the relationship between strategic energy management (SEM) programs and their persistence and cost effectiveness, with analysis based on interview data from 24 SEM program administrators, SEM program evaluations, and other reports. The 80 interview questions focused on the topics of program design, energy savings, energy savings persistence, cost effectiveness, and customer SEM persistence. The generosity of interview respondents provided a wealth of data, resulting in a report of sufficient length to warrant inclusion of this brief guide of the report structure. The major sections are listed below with brief descriptions. Individual sections of this report are mainly stand-alone and do not require reading of other sections. As a result, there is some duplication between sections, but with differing levels of detail. Executive Summary: Presents three key conclusions of this work with a short description of potential actions to advance the understanding of each key finding. Brief Observations: Lists a large number of bulleted observations resulting from this research, arranged by the five major topic areas included in the interviews. Analysis details are provided in the Analysis of Interview Results section. Foundations for this Research: Provides an overview of SEM, SEM frameworks, SEM programs, the topics of persistence and cost effectiveness, and the focus of this research. Methodology: Details the approach and strategy of this research, providing background information relevant to the formulation of interview questions and the identification of which SEM programs to interview. Observations from Compiled Evaluations and Other Reports: Reports observations from the collection and analysis of program evaluations, annual reports, utility planning documents, and SEM-related white papers. This section, presented in bullet form, highlights challenges in data collection and ultimately a comparison of program practices as they pertain to persistence and cost effectiveness. Analysis of Interview Results: Presents detailed analysis of responses from SEM program administrators, arranged by the five major categories examined: program design, energy savings, energy savings persistence, cost effectiveness, and customer SEM persistence. Interview questions are generally grouped together into subsections when it makes sense to examine them together. SEM Programs Challenge Traditional Cost-Effectiveness Metrics: Details an analysis based on five key factors showing that applying traditional cost-effectiveness metrics to SEM programs is not straightforward. This invites the opportunity to consider whether traditional cost-effectiveness metrics are applicable to SEM programs, either individually or at large. Resolution of Research Hypotheses: Tabulates a set of hypotheses that were developed to address the fundamental nature of the research at hand. Analysis of responses to multiple questions informs an understanding of each hypothesis and can be used to better understand the SEM program environment at large.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Energy Resilience for Mission Assurance: Agile Co-simulation for Cyber Energy System Security (ACCESS), Model Advancements for Resilience Analysis

Agile Co-simulation for Cyber Energy System Security (ACCESS) is a co-simulation platform developed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The primary high-level use-case for ACCESS is to study existing or new cyber-physical critical infrastructure systems, with a heavy emphasis on 1) systems that utilize communication networks, and 2) studies that seek to understand cyber-related system impacts. ACCESS is currently used for several energy system resilience projects at LLNL. In the Energy Resilience for Mission Assurance (ERMA) project, ACCESS is used in the Modeling for Metric Calculation task (specifically, subtask 4.3, Communications and Cyber Modeling) to model and simulate the cyber and communication system aspects of Defense Critical Electric Infrastructure (DCEI) systems, with a focus on computing specific communication system metrics that can impact system resilience and mission performance. Simulated communication system performance will be fed back to other ERMA system components so that mission performance can be evaluated holistically. This report describes several enhancements to the ACCESS platform that were implemented during the execution of the ERMA project in support of reslience analysis. This includes the addition of new models and subsystems, enhancements to existing models, and integration with external systems. The remainder of this report is structured as follows. In Section 2, a brief background description of the ACCESS platform is provided, including an outline of ACCESS components, example usecases, and a set of communication network resilience metrics that can be computed with ACCESS. Section 3 describes the ACCESS model enhancements for ERMA in detail. Finally, Section 4 briefly outlines future integration opportunities between ACCESS and project participant capabilities identified during the progression of the project.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantification of morphological change in materials based on image data utilizing machine learning techniques

Computed tomography (CT) resolution has become high enough to monitor morphological changes due to aging in materials in long-term applications. We explored the utility of the critic of a generative adversarial network (GAN) to automatically detect such changes. The GAN was trained with images of pristine Pharmatose, which is used as a surrogate energetic material. It is important to note that images of the material with altered morphology were only used during the test phase. The GAN-generated images visually reproduced the microstructure of Pharmatose well, although some unrealistic particle fusion was seen. Calculated morphological metrics (volume fraction, interfacial line length, and local thickness) for the synthetic images also showed good agreement with the training data, albeit with signs of mode collapse in the interfacial line length. While the critic exposed changes in particle size, it showed limited ability to distinguish images by particle shape. The detection of shape differences was also a more challenging task for the selected morphological metrics that related to energetic material performance. We further tested the critic with images of aged Pharmatose. Subtle changes due to aging are difficult for the human analyst to detect. Both critic and morphological metrics analysis showed image differentiation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cooling Egypt: Cost and benefits of room air conditioner efficiency improvement in Egypt

Egypt is one of the largest countries in the Middle East and North Africa region with a population of a total of 106 million (as of July 2022). Increasing urbanization, population growth, and increasing temperatures will likely continue to drive demand for electricity from air conditioning, with corresponding negative impacts on the peak load, air quality, and greenhouse gas emissions from refrigerant use and energy consumption. Since 2003, Egypt has adopted a standards and labeling program for various appliances, and has improved its room air conditioner (RAC) energy efficiency requirements in 2016 and 2017. However, its market is still dominated by inefficient fixed-speed drive (FSD) RACs due to a price-sensitive market. Seasonal metrics such as Cooling Season Performance Factor (CSPF) measure the energy efficiency of FSD and variable-speed drive (VSD) RACs on the same scale. Leading markets, most notably China, have already adopted a new MEPS in 2020 and 2022, which align largely with the United for Efficiency (U4E) Model Regulations Guidelines. India has also adopted a CSPF metric. Both India and China are now experiencing (1) increased demand and consumption of higher efficiency VSD RACs, as well as (2) a corresponding drop in prices from the economies of scale of production of these higher efficiency RACs. Because China is a leading manufacturer in the global air conditioner (AC) market, its adoption of the model U4E regulations have effectively raised the energy efficiency of the ACs in the global market. To achieve the benefits of taking a similar approach to Egypt’s market, we offer the following recommendations: 1. Adopt a common metric to measure the efficiency of both FSD and VSD RACs 2. Raise the stringency of MEPS to the level of the U4E Model Regulation Guidelines 3. Restructure the labeling program from the “A++” labeling scheme to a simpler A through E or a star-rating program 4. Strengthen the compliance regime governing the Egyptian AC MEPS 5. Assist small and medium AC manufacturers in Egypt to transition manufacturing lines to produce low-cost, high-efficiency VSD RACs. Adopting these recommendations would reduce Egypt’s electricity consumption to 11 TWh in 2030 and 89 TWh in 2050—with corresponding carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions and avoided generation capacity requirements compared to the baseline.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cambium 2022 Scenario Descriptions and Documentation

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) Cambium data sets are annually released sets of simulated hourly emission, cost, and operational data for a range of modeled futures of the U.S. electric sector with metrics designed to be useful for long-term decision making. The 2022 Cambium data set is the third annual release. The data sets are a companion product to NREL’s Standard Scenarios, which are likewise released annually and are a set of projections of how the U.S. electric sector could evolve across a suite of different potential futures, but covering more scenarios with less temporal granularity. In this documentation, we describe Cambium 2022’s scenarios (Section 3), define the metrics (Section 5), and document the Cambium-specific methods for calculating those metrics (Section 6).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Current State of U.S. Energy Equity Regulation and Legislation [Slides]

This report examined state energy equity actions from January 2020 to July 2022. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory partnered with E9 Insight to screen executive, legislative, and regulatory actions focusing on energy equity. A total of 95 actions were identified across 22 states and Washington, DC. Energy equity was most associated with resource planning, decarbonization, and energy efficiency regulatory focus areas. States tended to focus on distributive and procedural justice tenets over recognition and restorative justice tenets. The review also suggested that energy equity metrics are in nascent stages; most outcomes identified in equity actions did not have corresponding metrics. Affordability and energy burden were identified as metrics in multiple cases and appeared in several different forms.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Environmental Report 2021

The purposes of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Environmental Report 2021 are to record Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s (LLNL’s) compliance with environmental standards and requirements, describe LLNL’s environmental protection and remediation programs, and present the results of environmental monitoring at the two LLNL sites—the Livermore Site and Site 300. The report is prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by LLNL’s Environmental Functional Area. Submittal of the report satisfies requirements under DOE Order 231.1B, “Environment, Safety and Health Reporting,” and DOE Order 458.1, “Radiation Protection of the Public and Environment.” The report is distributed electronically and is available at https://saer.llnl.gov/, the website for the LLNL annual environmental report. Previous LLNL annual environmental reports beginning with 1994 are also on the website. Some references in the electronic report text are underlined, which indicates that they are clickable links. Clicking on one of these links will open the related document, data workbook, or website. Sampling location maps throughout this report were created using ArcGIS® software by Esri. The report begins with an executive summary, which provides the purpose of the report and an overview of LLNL’s compliance and monitoring results. The first three chapters provide background information: Chapter 1 is an overview of the location, meteorology, and hydrogeology of the two LLNL sites; Chapter 2 is a summary of LLNL’s compliance with environmental regulations; and Chapter 3 is a description of LLNL’s environmental programs with an emphasis on the Environmental Management System including pollution prevention. The majority of the report covers LLNL’s environmental monitoring programs and monitoring data for 2021: effluent and ambient air monitoring and dose assessment (Chapter 4); waters, including wastewater, storm water runoff, surface water, rain, and groundwater (Chapter 5); and terrestrial, including soil, sediment, vegetation, foodstuff, ambient radiation, and special status wildlife and plants (Chapter 6). The remaining two chapters discuss LLNL’s groundwater remediation program (Chapter 7), and quality assurance for the environmental monitoring programs (Chapter 8). Complete monitoring data, which are summarized in the body of the report, are provided in Appendix A. The report uses Système International units, consistent with the federal Metric Conversion Act of 1975 and Executive Order 12770, “Metric Usage in Federal Government Programs” (1991). For ease of comparison to environmental reports issued prior to 1991, dose values and many radiological measurements are given in both metric and U.S. customary units. A conversion table is provided in the glossary. The report is the responsibility of LLNL’s Environmental Functional Area. Monitoring data were obtained through the combined efforts of the Environmental Functional Area; Environmental Restoration Department; Physical and Life Sciences Environmental Monitoring Radiological Laboratory; and the Radiation Protection Functional Area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Human-in-the-loop Sensing and Control for Commercial Building Energy Efficiency and Occupant Comfort

Most of the existing heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems in commercial buildings operate in a conservative manner by assuming maximum occupancy in each room during pre-specified periods of the week, leading to significant energy being wasted as rooms are over-conditioned compared to the actual requirements of the occupants. Though critical, our understanding of occupancy patterns and thermal comfort needs of the occupants in commercial buildings is lacking and it is well known that both of these quantities are stochastic and time-varying, thus requiring sensing solutions to estimate them. This project had the goal of designing, implementing and evaluating a hardware and software solution to ameliorate this challenge. In particular, a depth camera (one whose pixels reveal distance from the camera as opposed to color values) placed on doorways is used to detect entrance and exit events from thermal zones in the building, and thereby estimate their occupancy levels. This information is then fed to a novel control algorithm that can, through interactions with the HVAC system, learn how to provide control inputs that maximize comfort and minimize energy waste. The resulting system represents a significant improvement over existing controllers for commercial HVAC systems and allowed us to improve our understanding of the design of future human-in-the-loop control solutions. For this solution to be feasible, the project had target metrics for its performance and cost. In particular, entrance and exit events for occupants moving about the building would need to be detected with an accuracy higher than 97%; and the resulting control inputs derived from this information would need to lead to approximately 10% energy savings compared to a schedule-based controller. Furthermore, regarding the final hardware design, the project had a target bill of materials (BOM) cost for the sensing solution of less than US$200 per unit while using less than 25W of power on average. All of these target metrics were met or exceeded by our final proposed solution. We performed evaluations by deploying the system in over 20 rooms of different types across 6 commercial buildings in Pittsburgh, PA over the course of three years, and performing targeted controlled experiments to test its performance along the different metrics. The human-in-the-loop control solutions (both hardware and software) developed through this project are expected to lead to significant improvements in the comfort and energy efficiency of HVAC systems used in commercial buildings. The insights we developed through the project pave the way to HVAC systems that can condition interior spaces according to their real-time utilization and the thermal comfort needs of the occupants, thereby reducing energy use. They also open up a new learning-based way of configuring HVAC controllers without having to manually fine-tune them for each building. These innovations can significantly increase the adoption of novel control solutions by the industry and thereby save resources and reduce costs of operation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Sourced Collaboration for the Production and Refining of Rare Elements and Critical Metals (Final Technical Report)

The project objective was to develop a feasible and cost-effective method for recovering rare earth elements (REEs) and critical materials (CMs) from coal and coal byproducts, resulting in high-purity individually separated REEs and CMs. The targeted REEs included Y, Pr, Nd, Gd, Dy, and Sm, with a purity of over 99.5%, while the CMs included Co, Mn, Ga, Sr, Li, Ni, Zn, and Ge, with a purity of over 90%. The project aimed to design a prototype facility capable of producing 1-3 tonnes/day of high-purity REO mixes. The work was divided into four designated circuits: 1) REE extraction and concentration, 2) REE separation and purification, 3) RE metal production, and 4) CM production. To achieve these goals, the project involved 11 tasks, including technology reviews, research, process flow diagram development, mass balance estimation, and preliminary technical-economic analysis. The project team included researchers from the University of Kentucky, University of Alabama and Virginia Tech as well as process specialists from Argonne National Laboratory. MP Materials provided technical support regarding rare earth markets and processing while Alliance Coal performed resource assessment. The project included a market analysis for Nd/Pr, Tb, Dy, Gd, Y, Co, Mn, Li, Sr, Ga, Ni, Zn, and Ge. These analyses provided insights into the supply and demand trends as well as historic and future projections of market price relative to purity requirements for these elements. Two coal resources were selected for the project: the West Kentucky No. 13 (Baker) Seam and an undisclosed lignite resource in the Illinois coal basin. The estimated quantities of REEs in these resources were calculated based on production samples and drilling data. It was estimated that there is adequate supply for an operation producing one metric ton daily of higher purity mixed rare earth oxides (MREO) for approximately 20 years at a site located in western Kentucky. In Circuit 1, project data was obtained from a pilot heap leach and REE concentration facility. It was concluded that the existing circuit, which generated a MREO concentrate, two types of CM mixed products, and Li- and Sr-containing waters, would be suitable feed for circuits 2-4. Data from the first-of-its-kind coal coarse refuse heap leach pilot pad played a crucial role in estimating reliable elemental concentrations of the pregnant leaching solution (PLS). The average total REE concentration in the PLS was found to be 28.6 ppm. In Circuit 2, several concepts were explored including a novel process referred to as solvent-assisted chromatography (SAC). This concept involved a novel columnar reactor that incorporated multiple mixer/settlers, thereby enabling the operation of counter-flowing aqueous and organic phases. Unfortunately, due to project time constraints, a complete fundamental modeling analysis could not be completed to fully evaluate the technology. Molten salt electrowinning was considered as an alternative for circuit 3 following circuit 2 purification circuit utilizing the novel SAC process. A mass and energy balance of Nd reduction to metal in a fluoride containing molten salt electrolyte was conducted. Comparisons were made with the current state of Asian molten salt electrorefining, and potential improvements in siphoning rare earth metals (REM) from the reactor were presented. A cost estimate was performed for the production of 1 tonne per day, which yielded a total of $2.29 million for the nine electrowinning (EW) cells required. The selected option for circuits 2 and 3 was a plasma distillation process, which initially separates rare earth elements (REEs) from other elements. This is followed by selective electrowinning in various ionic liquids. The selection was made on the basis of thermodynamic modeling and experimental data previously published by a project partner. The combination offers an innovative approach to integrated refining and RE metal production. For Circuit 4, an extensive literature review was conducted for the processing of the CMs. The ultimate decision was to utilize a combined plasma and ionic liquid process as well to produce individual high-purity concentrates of Zn, Ni, Co, Mn, and Mg. A separate flowsheet for Li and Sr was recommended, which would yield carbonates of these elements. Due to the lack of suitable experimental data at this time, a process recommendation could not be provided but several methods have been proposed for consideration. Lastly, a techno-economic analysis (TEA) was conducted to assess the effectiveness of the proposed process for further investigation. The TEA results revealed a capital expense (CapEx) of $737 million and an annual operational expense (OpEx) of $220 million. Due to the selected elements, the hypothetical heap leach pad can produce 1 metric tonne per day of REO equivalent, but a conscious decision was made to only treat targeted REEs, resulting in the production of 0.4 metric tonne of REM. An estimated annual revenue of $90.87 million was projected based on standard market pricing information provided by the funding agency. During the TEA, ten different modules were evaluated for costing purposes. The precipitation circuit was identified as the largest single operational expense, followed by the Mg/Mn process due to the amount of treated metal. In terms of capital expenditures, the heap leach process incurred the highest cost, followed by the Mg/Mn process. The scalability of the plasma process is a crucial consideration since the reactors cannot be scaled beyond the largest demonstrated size due to their reliance on surface area of the slag and vapor phase. The purity estimate for the REEs are generally 98%±2% to produce a metal. The purity level being lower than the project objective was due to the lack of specific experimental data needed to tighten the tolerance of the estimates. Based on literature and previous experience, the CMs are estimated as follows; Ga (95%+, metal), Sr (95%+, carbonate), Li (95%+, carbonate), Ni (98%±2%, metal), Zn (95%+, metal sponge), Ge (95%+, metal), Co (98%±2%, metal), and Mn (98%±2%, metal).

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2023

Basin-Scale Relicensing Opportunity Product User Guide

The Basin-Scale Relicensing Opportunity products provide a platform for identifying favorable areas for basin-wide collaboration using metrics derived from anticipated Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) relicensing dates. The hydropower relicensing process requires long-term resource allocation by agencies, hydropower owner/operators, non-governmental organizations, and tribal, state, and federal governments. Basin-scale hydropower relicensing has begun to receive attention as a potential solution for reducing licensing timelines, costs, and uncertainty which can provide benefits to a broad spectrum of participants in the licensing process. Two products were developed: (1) an interactive web map that allows users to browse facilities and rivers of interest and uncover locations for potential collaboration based on FERC relicensing metrics summarized along river reaches and (2) a spreadsheet that contains 1,261 facilities with associated FERC relicensing metrics and that allows users to join these data to others and develop and conduct their own analyses.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Resource Adequacy and Community Impacts of an Evolving Grid: Considerations for State Regulators

As U.S. power systems continue to decarbonize, state regulators must be able to broadly assess the cost and reliability implications of proposed fossil retirements and the corresponding resources that are coming online to replace them. Specifically, regulators must evaluate whether proposed infrastructure investments are sufficient to ensure the long-term reliability of the system, while also protecting rate payers by ensuring that such investments are necessary and not excessive. Broadly speaking, this objective is typically framed in terms of maintaining long-term resource adequacy at the lowest cost, while also ensuring that other social and/or environmental objectives are satisfied. System planners currently have a host of sophisticated analytical tools at their disposal to evaluate the cost-benefit trade-offs of different approaches to ensuring resource adequacy. However, most of these tools and associated metrics were designed with traditional power systems in mind. Over the past decade, it has become increasingly clear that the metrics and models that have reliably assessed resource adequacy in systems dominated by large thermal and hydropower resources will be insufficient for systems with significant contributions from emerging technologies such as wind, solar and storage. Therefore, in recent years many new metrics and modeling approaches have been developed, and are increasingly being implemented, to meet the needs of the clean energy transition.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗