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NASA NTRS2020

UAM Vision Concept of Operations (ConOps) UAM Maturity Level (UML) 4

This Vision ConOps is intended as a foundation to engage members of the UAM community and provide a consensus on the future vision of UAM operations. It provides a concept for more detailed discussion and a basis for the exploration of ideas using a common framework to inform the continued development and integration of UAM as part of the broader transportation system. Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) encompasses a range of innovative aviation technologies (small drones, electric aircraft, automated air traffic management, etc.) that are transforming aviation’s role in everyday life, including the movement of goods and people. Urban Air Mobility (UAM) represents one of the most exciting and complex AAM concepts with highly automated aircraft, providing commercial services to the public over densely populated cities. This concept has generated tremendous interest and industry investment. UAM envisages a future in which advanced technologies and new operational procedures enable practical, cost-effective air travel as an integral mode of transportation in metropolitan areas. It represents one of the most exciting and complex AAM concepts with highly automated aircraft providing commercial services to the public over densely populated cities. For this reason, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) selected UAM as the initial goal of its AAM efforts and the focus of this Vision Concept of Operations (ConOps) document. UAM Community Vision ConOps: This Vision ConOps effort was led by experts from NASA’s Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) in collaboration with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and Deloitte’s Ecosystem Advisory Group (a cohort of advisers with aviation, aerospace, and regulatory expertise). To develop this Vision ConOps, NASA, FAA, and Deloitte built upon the current body of aeronautical research and consulted with more than 100 stakeholder organizations. This UAM community includes entities ranging from legacy aviation leaders to innovators and new market entrants. Stakeholders consulted included the federal government, state and local government, aerospace original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), local transportation organizations, prospective UAM operators, academia, industry standards-setting bodies, airports, service suppliers, and others (as described in Appendix G). This input was captured through the following methods: • A series of more than two dozen interviews with industry experts, federal regulators, state and local governments, and industry trade groups provided insight into the challenges of UAM integration into the National Airspace System (NAS), as well as technology developments and a variety of perspectives as to how UAM systems will integrate. • A series of two-day community workshops enabling active, detailed engagement of nearly 100 industry, academic, federal, and state stakeholder individuals. These workshops, hosted by NASA and Deloitte, explored UAM concepts in detail, and stakeholders were invited to collaboratively analyze and propose solutions to some of the greatest conceptual challenges behind UAM at an intermediate state. • A review of more than 160 sources of UAM literature from across government, industry, and academia, which are listed in Appendix H. • The public sharing of workshop input and document drafts for review and input across the UAM community. Feedback in the form of more than 1,000 comments and inputs on the document was received from industry groups, individual companies, academia, and government (federal, state, and local), among others. Although effort was made to incorporate inputs from across the UAM stakeholder group, not all comments could ultimately be incorporated in this version. The team resolved conflicting comments or ideas while maintaining consistency with the known direction of regulators and ensuring the document was coherent and consistent. It is recognized that this is a rapidly evolving area and that concepts will likely change over time; as such, this Vision ConOps is a living document and is expected to evolve as concepts mature. The ConOps does, however, provide a vision of UAM concepts and solutions based on the broad insights from across the UAM stakeholder community at the time of its publication and is intended to serve as a UAM North Star for continued research and development of UAM. As a broad Vision ConOps, is not a detailed engineering document; rather, it focuses primarily on outlining a broad, high-level vision across all aspects of a UAM transportation system.

Urban Air Mobility↗
NASA NTRS1987

Experiments in encoding multilevel images as quadtrees

Image storage requirements for several encoding methods are investigated and the use of quadtrees with multigray level or multicolor images are explored. The results of encoding a variety of images having up to 256 gray levels using three schemes (full raster, runlength and quadtree) are presented. Although there is considerable literature on the use of quadtrees to store and manipulate binary images, their application to multilevel images is relatively undeveloped. The potential advantage of quadtree encoding is that an entire area with a uniform gray level may be encoded as a unit. A pointerless quadtree encoding scheme is described. Data are presented on the size of the quadtree required to encode selected images and on the relative storage requirements of the three encoding schemes. A segmentation scheme based on the statistical variation of gray levels within a quadtree quadrant is described. This parametric scheme may be used to control the storage required by an encoded image and to preprocess a scene for feature identification. Several sets of black and white and pseudocolor images obtained by varying the segmentation parameter are shown.

Lansing, Donald L.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Vortex-Free Flight Corridors for Aircraft Executing Compressed Landing Operations

A factor that limits airport arrival and departure rates is the need to wait between operations for the wake vortices of preceding aircraft to decay to a safe level. As airport traffic demand increases, creative methods will be needed to overcome the limitations caused by the hazard posed by vortex wakes so that airport capacities can be increased. The problem addressed here is the design of vortex-free trajectories for aircraft as they fly from their cruise altitudes down to their final approach paths and to a landing. The guidelines presented recommend that the flight path of each aircraft in a group executing nearly-simultaneous landings be spaced far enough apart laterally along organized flight paths so that the vortex wakes of preceding aircraft will not intrude into the airspace to be used by following aircraft. An example is presented as to how a combination of straight lines and circular arcs is able to provide each aircraft in a group with a vortex-free trajectory so that all are able to safely form the pattern needed for nearly simultaneous landings on a set of closely-spaced parallel runways. Although the guidelines me described for aircraft on approach, they are also applicable to departure, and to en route operations.

Rossow, Vernon J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Piloted Evaluation of the H-Mode, a Variable Autonomy Control System, in Motion-Based Simulation

As aircraft become able to autonomously respond to a range of situations with performance surpassing human operators, we are compelled to look for new methods that help understand their use and guide the design of new, more effective forms of automation and interaction. The "H-mode" is one such method and is based on the metaphor of a well-trained horse. The concept allows the pilot to manage a broad range of control automation functionality, from augmented manual control to FMS-like coupling and automation initiated actions, using a common interface system and easily learned set of interaction skills. The interface leverages familiar manual control interfaces (e.g., the control stick) and flight displays through the addition of contextually dependent haptic-multimodal elements. The concept is relevant to manned and remotely piloted vehicles. This paper provides an overview of the H-mode concept followed by a presentation of the results from a recent evaluation conducted in a motion-based simulator. The evaluation focused on assessing the overall usability and flying qualities of the concept with an emphasis on the effects of turbulence and cockpit motion. Because the H-mode results in interactions between traditional flying qualities and management of higher-level flight path automation, these effects are of particular interest. The results indicate that the concept may provide a useful complement or replacement to conventional interfaces, and retains the usefulness in the presence of turbulence and motion.

Goodrich, Kenneth H.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Computational Implementation of a Thermodynamically Based Work Potential Model For Progressive Microdamage and Transverse Cracking in Fiber-Reinforced Laminates

A continuum-level, dual internal state variable, thermodynamically based, work potential model, Schapery Theory, is used capture the effects of two matrix damage mechanisms in a fiber-reinforced laminated composite: microdamage and transverse cracking. Matrix microdamage accrues primarily in the form of shear microcracks between the fibers of the composite. Whereas, larger transverse matrix cracks typically span the thickness of a lamina and run parallel to the fibers. Schapery Theory uses the energy potential required to advance structural changes, associated with the damage mechanisms, to govern damage growth through a set of internal state variables. These state variables are used to quantify the stiffness degradation resulting from damage growth. The transverse and shear stiffness of the lamina are related to the internal state variables through a set of measurable damage functions. Additionally, the damage variables for a given strain state can be calculated from a set of evolution equations. These evolution equations and damage functions are implemented into the finite element method and used to govern the constitutive response of the material points in the model. Additionally, an axial failure criterion is included in the model. The response of a center-notched, buffer strip-stiffened panel subjected to uniaxial tension is investigated and results are compared to experiment.

Pineda, Evan J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Proteomic Assessment of Fluid Shifts and Association with Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure in Twin Astronauts

BACKGROUND: Astronauts participating in long duration space missions are at an increased risk of physiological disruptions. The development of visual impairment and intracranial pressure (VIIP) syndrome is one of the leading health concerns for crew members on long-duration space missions; microgravity-induced fluid shifts and chronic elevated cabin CO2 may be contributing factors. By studying physiological and molecular changes in one identical twin during his 1-year ISS mission and his ground-based co-twin, this work extends a current NASA-funded investigation to assess space flight induced "Fluid Shifts" in association with the development of VIIP. This twin study uniquely integrates physiological and -omic signatures to further our understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying space flight-induced VIIP. We are: (i) conducting longitudinal proteomic assessments of plasma to identify fluid regulation-related molecular pathways altered by long-term space flight; and (ii) integrating physiological and proteomic data with genomic data to understand the genomic mechanism by which these proteomic signatures are regulated. PURPOSE: We are exploring proteomic signatures and genomic mechanisms underlying space flight-induced VIIP symptoms with the future goal of developing early biomarkers to detect and monitor the progression of VIIP. This study is first to employ a male monozygous twin pair to systematically determine the impact of fluid distribution in microgravity, integrating a comprehensive set of structural and functional measures with proteomic, metabolomic and genomic data. This project has a broader impact on Earth-based clinical areas, such as traumatic brain injury-induced elevations of intracranial pressure, hydrocephalus, and glaucoma. HYPOTHESIS: We predict that the space-flown twin will experience a space flight-induced alteration in proteins and peptides related to fluid balance, fluid control and brain injury as compared to his pre-flight protein/peptide signatures. Conversely, the trajectory of these protein signatures will remain relatively constant in his ground based co-twin. METHODS: We are using proteomic and standard immunoelectrophoresis techniques to delineate the change in protein signatures throughout the course of a long duration space flight in relation to the development of VIIP. We are also applying a novel cell-based metaboloic organ system assay ("Organs on a Plate") to address how these circulating biomarkers affect physiological processes at the cellular and organ level which could result in VIIP symptoms. These molecular data will be correlated with physiological measures (eg. extra and intracellular fluid volume, vascular filling/flow patterns, MRI, and Optic Coherence Tomography. DISCUSSION: Pre- and in-flight data collection is in progress for the space-flown twin, and similar data have been obtained from the ground-based twin. Biosamples will be batch processed when received from ISS after the conclusion of the 1-year mission. Omic and Physiological measures from the twin astronauts will be compared to similar data being collected on twin subjects who participated in simulated microgravity study. bed rest study.

Rana, Brinda K.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Simple robust control laws for robot manipulators. Part 1: Non-adaptive case

A new class of exponentially stabilizing control laws for joint level control of robot arms is introduced. It has been recently recognized that the nonlinear dynamics associated with robotic manipulators have certain inherent passivity properties. More specifically, the derivation of the robotic dynamic equations from the Hamilton's principle gives rise to natural Lyapunov functions for control design based on total energy considerations. Through a slight modification of the energy Lyapunov function and the use of a convenient lemma to handle third order terms in the Lyapunov function derivatives, closed loop exponential stability for both the set point and tracking control problem is demonstrated. The exponential convergence property also leads to robustness with respect to frictions, bounded modeling errors and instrument noise. In one new design, the nonlinear terms are decoupled from real-time measurements which completely removes the requirement for on-line computation of nonlinear terms in the controller implementation. In general, the new class of control laws offers alternatives to the more conventional computed torque method, providing tradeoffs between robustness, computation and convergence properties. Furthermore, these control laws have the unique feature that they can be adapted in a very simple fashion to achieve asymptotically stable adaptive control.

Wen, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Boundary Layer Transition on Slender Cones in Conventional and Low Disturbance Mach 6 Wind Tunnels

An experimental investigation was conducted on a 5-degree half-angle cone and a 5-degree half-angle flared cone in a conventional Mach 6 wind tunnel to examine the effects of facility noise on boundary layer transition. The influence of tunnel noise was inferred by comparing transition onset locations determined from the present test to that previously obtained in a Mach 6 low disturbance quiet tunnel. Together, the two sets of experiments are believed to represent the first direct comparison of transition onset between a conventional and a low disturbance wind tunnel using a common test model and transition detection technique. In the present conventional hypersonic tunnel experiment, separate measurements of heat transfer and adiabatic wall temperatures were obtained on the conical models at small angles of attack over a range of Reynolds numbers, which resulted in laminar, transitional, and turbulent flow. Smooth model turbulent heating distributions are compared to that obtained with transition forced via discrete surface roughness. The model nosetip radius was varied to examine the effects of bluntness on transition onset. Despite wall to total temperature differences between the transient heating measurements and the adiabatic wall temperature measurement, the two methods for determining sharp cone transition onset generally yielded equivalent locations. In the 'noisy' mode of the hypersonic low disturbance tunnel, transition onset occurred earlier than that measured in the conventional hypersonic tunnel, suggesting higher levels of freestream acoustic radiation relative to the conventional tunnel. At comparable freestream conditions, the transition onset Reynolds number under low disturbance conditions was a factor of 1.3 greater than that measured on flared cone in the LaRC conventional hypersonic tunnel and a factor of 1.6 greater that the flared cone run in the low disturbance tunnel run 'noisy'. Navier-Stokes mean flow computations and linear stability analysis were conducted to assess the experimental results and have indicated N factors associated with sharp flared cone transition onset to be approximately a factor of 2 lower than that inferred from the corresponding low disturbance tunnel measurements.

Horvath, Thomas J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Accurate Realization of GPS Vertical Global Reference Frame

The few millimeter per year level accuracy of radial global velocity estimates with the Global Positioning System (GPS) is at least an order of magnitude poorer than the accuracy of horizontal global motions. An improvement in the accuracy of radial global velocities would have a very positive impact on a number of geophysical studies of current general interest such as global sea-level and climate change, coastal hazards, glacial isostatic adjustment, atmospheric and oceanic loading, glaciology and ice mass variability, tectonic deformation and volcanic inflation, and geoid variability. The goal of this project is to improve our current understanding of GPS error sources associated with estimates of radial velocities at global scales. GPS error sources relevant to this project can be classified in two broad categories: (1) those related to the analysis of the GPS phase observable, and (2) those related to the combination of the positions and velocities of a set of globally distributed stations as determined from the analysis of GPS data important aspect in the first category include the effect on vertical rate estimates due to standard analysis choices, such as orbit modeling, network geometry, ambiguity resolution, as well as errors in models (or simply the lack of models) for clocks, multipath, phase-center variations, atmosphere, and solid-Earth tides. The second category includes the possible methods of combining and defining terrestrial reference flames for determining vertical velocities in a global scale. The latter has been the subject of our research activities during this reporting period.

Elosegui, Pedro↗
NASA NTRS2008

Near-Real Time Cloud Retrievals from Operational and Research Meteorological Satellites

A set of cloud retrieval algorithms developed for CERES and applied to MODIS data have been adapted to analyze other satellite imager data in near-real time. The cloud products, including single-layer cloud amount, top and base height, optical depth, phase, effective particle size, and liquid and ice water paths, are being retrieved from GOES- 10/11/12, MTSAT-1R, FY-2C, and Meteosat imager data as well as from MODIS. A comprehensive system to normalize the calibrations to MODIS has been implemented to maximize consistency in the products across platforms. Estimates of surface and top-of-atmosphere broadband radiative fluxes are also provided. Multilayered cloud properties are retrieved from GOES-12, Meteosat, and MODIS data. Native pixel resolution analyses are performed over selected domains, while reduced sampling is used for full-disk retrievals. Tools have been developed for matching the pixel-level results with instrumented surface sites and active sensor satellites. The calibrations, methods, examples of the products, and comparisons with the ICESat GLAS lidar are discussed. These products are currently being used for aircraft icing diagnoses, numerical weather modeling assimilation, and atmospheric radiation research and have potential for use in many other applications.

Minnis, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS2018

Retrieval of H2O Abundance in Titan's Stratosphere: A (Re)Analysis of CIRS/Cassini and PACS/Herschel Observations

Since its first measurement 20 years ago by the Infrared Space Observatory (ISO), the water (H2O) mole fraction in Titan’s stratosphere remains uncertain due to large differences between the determinations from available measurements. More particularly, the recent measurements made from the Herschel observatory (PACS (Photodetector Array Camera and Spectrometer) and HIFI (Heterodyne Instrument for the Far Infrared)) estimated the H2O mole fraction to be 0.023 parts per billion at 12.1 millibars. A mixing ratio of 0.14 parts per billion at 10.7 millibars was, however, retrieved from nadir spatially-resolved observations of Cassini/CIRS (Composite Infrared Spectrometer). At the same pressure level (10.7 millibars), this makes a difference of a factor of 5.5 between PACS and CIRS measurements, and this has notably prevented current models from fully constraining the oxygen flux flowing into Titan’s atmosphere. In this work, we try to understand the differences between the H2O mole fractions estimated from Herschel/PACS and Cassini/CIRS observations. The strategy for this is to 1) analyse recent disc-averaged observations of CIRS to investigate if the observation geometry could explain the previous observed differences, and 2) (re)analyse the three types of observation with the same retrieval scheme to assess if previous differences in retrieval codes/methodology could be responsible for the previous discrepancies. With this analysis, we show that using the same retrieval method better reconcile the previous measurements of these instruments. However, the addition of the disc-averaged CIRS observations, instead of confirming the consistency between the different datasets, reveals discrepancies between one of the CIRS disc-averaged set of observations and PACS measurements. This raises new questions regarding the possibility of latitudinal variations of H2O, which could be triggered by seasonal changes of the meridional circulation. As it has already been shown for nitriles and hydrocarbons, this circulation could potentially impact the latitudinal distribution of H2O through the subsidence or up- welling of air rich in H2O. The possible influence of spatial/time variations of the OH/H2O input flux in Titan’s atmosphere is also discussed. The analysis of more observations will be needed in future work to address the questions arising from this work and to improve the understanding of the sources of H2O in Titan’s atmosphere.

Bauduin, S.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Revisiting Empirical Solar Energetic Particle Scaling Relations. I. Solar Flares

Aims. The possible influence of solar superflares on the near-Earth space radiation environment are assessed through the investigation of scaling laws between the peak proton flux and fluence of solar energetic particle (SEP) events with the solar flare soft X-ray peak photon flux. Methods. We compiled a catalog of 65 well-connected (W20-90) SEP events during the last three solar cycles covering a period of ∼34 yr (1984–2020) that were associated with flares of class ≥C6.0, and investigated the statistical relations between the recorded peak proton fluxes (I p ) and the fluences (F p ) at a set of integral energies from E > 10, > 30, and > 60 to > 100 MeV versus the associated solar flare peak soft X-ray flux in the 1–8 Å band (F SXR ). Based on the inferred relations, we calculated the integrated energy dependence of the peak proton flux (I p ) and fluence (F p ) of the SEP events, assuming that they follow an inverse power law with respect to energy. Finally, we made use of simple physical assumptions, combining our derived scaling laws, and estimated the upper limits for I p and F p focusing on the flare associated with the strongest ground level enhancement (GLE) directly observed to date (GLE 05 on 23 February 1956), and that inferred for the cosmogenic radionuclide-based SEP event of AD774/775. Results. A scaling law relating I p and F p to the solar soft X-ray peak intensity (F SXR ) as ∝ F 5/6 SXR for a flare with a F SXR = X600 (in the revised scale) is consistent with values of FP inferred for the cosmogenic nuclide event of AD774/775.

Athanasios Papaioannou↗
NASA NTRS1982

Large area silicon sheet by EFG

Work carried out on the JPL Flat Plate Solar Array Project, for the purpose of developing a method for silicon ribbon production by Edge-defined Film-fed Growth (EEG) for use as low-cost substrate material in terrestrial solar cell manufacture, is described. A multiple ribbon furnace unit that is designed to operate on a continuous basis for periods of at least one week, with melt replenishment and automatic ribbon width control, and to produce silicon sheet at a rate of one square meter per hour, was constructed. Program milestones set for single ribbon furnace operation to demonstrate basic EEG system capabilities with respect to growth speed, thickness and cell performance were achieved for 10 cm wide ribbon: steady-state growth at 4 cm/min and 200 micron thickness over periods of an hour and longer was made routine, and a small area cell efficiency of 13+% demonstrated. Large area cells of average efficiency of 10 to 11%, with peak values of 11 to 12% were also achieved. The integration of these individual performance levels into multiple ribbon furnace operation was not accomplished.

Kalejs, J. P.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring the Impact of Compliance With Maneuvering Guidelines for Space Traffic Management

If the current estimate of proposed large constellations is realized, the near-Earth space environment will see more than 50,000 new satellites added to the catalog of resident space objects (RSOs) in the coming decade. This is an order of magnitude increase from the current population and poses new policy challenges as global operators seek to leverage the benefits these new satellite systems provide while also ensuring a sustainable approach to collision avoidance. Various guidelines have been proposed to date to support this effort, including the development of right of way rules to guide how a collision avoidance maneuver should be performed, and how the maneuver burden should be shared between the two satellites involved. However, it is very difficult to evaluate and compare proposed guidelines due to the complex nature of space traffic and the rapidly changing space environment. This study seeks to address this issue by utilizing the Virtual Environment for Space Traffic Analysis (VESTA), a high-fidelity simulation tool that has been developed at Georgia Tech over the past few years with the explicit purpose of evaluating the future of space traffic environment. Using this tool, a sensitivity study is performed that incorporates a likely set of future large constellations and provides metrics on the impact that a select set of proposed maneuvering guidelines would have on operators given realistic variations in spacecraft capabilities (e.g. maneuverability and propulsion capabilities), and other factors (owner-country, public vs. private, etc.). Specifically, this study compares three potential right of way rules: 1) a rule based on maneuverability proposed by the Space Safety Coalition, 2) a rule based on the geometry of the spacecraft rendezvous, and 3) a rule that equally distributes the maneuver burden between two operators, The results highlight general observations on the effectiveness and limitations of each of the proposed maneuvering guidelines. In addition to the choice of right of way rule, success of space traffic management will be significantly impacted by compliance – which operators, or how many operators, comply with the space traffic rules. The findings of this analysis have important implications for future methods that could be pursued to put in place right of way rules. For example, non-binding right of way rules may have variable levels of compliance that differ across actors. The impact of compliance by just one nation, or non-compliance by just one nation, help to demonstrate the impact of ensuring all major space actors coordinate on this effort. Overall, this analysis provides insight into the relative gains in safety (decrease in collision risk) that would likely result from more politically intense efforts to increase the number of countries implementing space traffic management rules.

conjunction assessment↗
NASA NTRS1998

An Operational Wake Vortex Sensor Using Pulsed Coherent Lidar

NASA and FAA initiated a program in 1994 to develop methods of setting spacings for landing aircraft by incorporating information on the real-time behavior of aircraft wake vortices. The current wake separation standards were developed in the 1970's when there was relatively light airport traffic and a logical break point by which to categorize aircraft. Today's continuum of aircraft sizes and increased airport packing densities have created a need for re-evaluation of wake separation standards. The goals of this effort are to ensure that separation standards are adequate for safety and to reduce aircraft spacing for higher airport capacity. Of particular interest are the different requirements for landing under visual flight conditions and instrument flight conditions. Over the years, greater spacings have been established for instrument flight than are allowed for visual flight conditions. Preliminary studies indicate that the airline industry would save considerable money and incur fewer passenger delays if a dynamic spacing system could reduce separations at major hubs during inclement weather to the levels routinely achieved under visual flight conditions. The sensor described herein may become part of this dynamic spacing system known as the "Aircraft VOrtex Spacing System" (AVOSS) that will interface with a future air traffic control system. AVOSS will use vortex behavioral models and short-term weather prediction models in order to predict vortex behavior sufficiently into the future to allow dynamic separation standards to be generated. The wake vortex sensor will periodically provide data to validate AVOSS predictions. Feasibility of measuring wake vortices using a lidar was first demonstrated using a continuous wave (CW) system from NASA Marshall Space Flight Sensor and tested at the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center's wake vortex test site at JFK International Airport. Other applications of CW lidar for wake vortex measurement have been made more recently, including a system developed by the MIT Lincoln Laboratory. This lidar has been used for detailed measurements of wake vortex velocities in support of wake vortex model validation. The first measurements of wake vortices using a pulsed, lidar were made by Coherent Technologies, Inc. (CTI) using a 2 micron solid-state, flashlamp-pumped system operating at 5 Hz. This system was first deployed at Denver's Stapleton Airport. Pulsed lidar has been selected as the baseline technology for an operational sensor due to its longer range capability.

Barker, Ben C., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Evaluating Process Effectiveness to Reduce Risk

It is well documented that government agencies do not have the same incentive as the private sector to focus on process effectiveness and continual improvement of those processes. It is also well documented whenever government agencies fail to deliver efficient, effective, consistent, and fair services to the citizens. In spite of the various "reinventing government" and "effectiveness initiatives" of the past decades, and in spite of the efforts on the part of many agencies to improve, government in general still lags behind industry in creating a culture of effective processes and systems. While the tragic events that unfolded recently in Flint, Michigan, teach us that running government "like a business" does not always take the needs of the citizenry into account, there are many lessons and techniques from the private sector that government agencies can use to improve. The incentive to improve, while mandated by various administrations1, needs to come from within the workforce, in order to effectively take root. The best, most effective incentive is to reduce, control or eliminate risk. Government agencies face some of the same risks as the private sector, while some are unique. While ISO 310002 has been around since 2009, risk has taken on increased visibility within the private sector with the advent of the emphasis on risk-based thinking in ISO 9001:20153. The relationship between risk-based thinking and effective processes is simple and direct. Those processes that are well thought out and standardized (i.e. Plan-Do-Check-Act), will have taken into account the applicable policy, statutory, regulatory, safety, quality and technical parameters, which may not occur to someone performing the process with minimal experience or training; and thus protect the employees, the public and the agency from statutory and regulatory violations; delay in providing services; non-delivery of services; harm to public or employee safety and health; cost overruns; breaches in security; loss of confidence in government; failure of publicly funded projects; damage to the environment; ethics violations, and the list goes on; with local, national and even international consequences. The Plan-Do-Check-Act process, also known as the "process approach" can be used at any time to establish and standardize a process, and it can also be used to check periodically for "process creep" (i.e., informal, unauthorized changes that have occurred over time), any necessary updates and improvements. While ISO 9001 compliance is not mandated for all government agencies, if interpreted correctly, it can be useful in establishing a framework and implementing effective management systems and processes.4 Another method that can be used to evaluate effectiveness is the scorecard definitions in Mallory's Process Management Standard5 as a basis for evaluating work on the process level on effective, and continuously improved and improving processes. With processes on the lower end of the scale, agencies are vulnerable to a great many risks, with employees and managers making up many of the rules as they go, leading to the above listed negative results. Without clear guidance for nominal operations, off-nominal situations can, and do, increase the likelihood of chaos. In an increasingly technical environment, with inter-agency communication and collaboration becoming the norm, agencies need to come to grips with the fact that processes can become rapidly outdated, and that the technical community should take on an increased role in the maturation of the agency's processes. Industry has long known that effective processes are also efficient, and process improvement methods such as Kaizen, Lean, Six Sigma, 5S, and mistake proofing lead to increased productivity, improved quality, and decreased cost. Again, government agencies have different concerns, but inefficiencies and mistakes can have dire and wide reaching consequences for the public that they serve. While no one goes to work planning to cause harm, it is up to agencies to establish upper level systems, which make establishment and compliance with processes possible. Again, Mallory provides us with a Systems Management Standard6, similar to the Process Management Standard, with a scale of 0-5 for systems effectiveness and maturity. Deming determined that "eighty-five percent of the reasons for failure are deficiencies in the systems and process rather than the employee. The role of management is to change the process rather than badgering individual employees to do better." 7 It is not just the working level employees who need effective processes, but the mid-and upper level managers as well. A disciplined management culture sets the tone for the employees, aids both routine and off-nominal decision-making, and incorporates risk -based thinking into the systems and processes as a matter of normal activity. Figure 1, illustrates the relationship between ineffective and effective processes and risk, through the use of the "stoplight" colors that are commonly used to show serious situations (red), situations which may be improving or deteriorating depending on trends (yellow), and situations that are under control and continuously improved (green).

Shepherd, Christena C.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Requirements Development and Management on the Psyche Project

In January 2017, Psyche was one of two mission concepts selected by NASA for flight as part of the 14th Discovery mission competition. The project has been staffing up and maturing the spacecraft, instrument and mission system baseline designs on the path towards a 2022 launch. During much of 2018, the Project has been executing the lifecycle stage called Phase B, “Preliminary Design and Technology Completion,” one key element of which is the development and management of requirements at various levels. In the case of the Psyche project, this process has been particularly unique for several reasons. The project utilizes a Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) Chassis from Space Systems Loral (SSL), a high volume manufacturer of commercial geostationary (GEO) telecom spacecraft based on the 1300 satellite bus. While SSL has an extensive, well-vetted set of requirements based on their very successful Earth-orbiting product line, translating that heritage to a deep space science mission required special care. In addition to the differences associated with the deep space environment and longer communication times, new interfaces had to be incorporated. While a substantial portion of the Flight System consists of the SEP Chassis, there were several new interfaces within various subsystems between SSL components and those provided by JPL and other contractors. Managing these interfaces through requirements at a relatively higher level than normally seen on internal or external builds proved challenging. Finally, the Psyche spacecraft plans to host the flight terminal of the Deep Space Optical Communications (DSOC) technology demonstration, which is itself a separate project with its own requirements that must be flowed down and managed. This paper will present an overview of the requirement development and management process for the Psyche project. It will discuss in detail the various challenges summarized above, the methods and decisions chosen to address them, and evaluate their overall effectiveness at this stage in the project.

Elkins-Tanton, Linda T.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine-Learned Committor Functions for Reactive Molecular Dynamics

Reactive molecular dynamics (MD) is a powerful tool for atomistic-scale modeling of a diverse range of chemical processes. However, scaling these simulations to large systems and long times scales remains a challenge because of the complexity of the potential energy function required. The authors previously developed a heuristic approach, called REACTER, that incorporates reactivity in MD simulations in a less general but much more computationally efficient manner. REACTER uses standard, fixed valence force fields as the underlying potentialenergy surface for describing all interatomic interactions but adds a procedure for enforcing user-defined reactions that occur when certain geometric constraints on relative atomic positions are satisfied. Further, these bonding changes can be accepted or rejected with a probability related tothe local thermal energy. This work seeks to generalize this approach by replacing the set of user defined geometric constraints and energetic criteria with a committor function that specifies the probability of a reaction occurring on the basis of the local atomic configuration. The committor function is a useful mathematical tool for modeling rare events but, unfortunately, is very difficult to compute for realistic systems in a general way. This work describes a method for approximating the committor function using a machine learning approach, specifically a deep neural network trained with data from reactive MD and DFT-based dynamics simulations. This network is coupled to the existing REACTER protocol, as implemented in the LAMMPS MD package, and used to make on-the-fly predictions of reaction probabilities without the more extensive user input previously required. The new method is demonstrated using the polymerization of polystyrene as a case study. Although very dependent on the quality and quantity of training data, machine-learned committor functions show promise as a method for incorporating reaction probability from higher level calculations into highly scalable MD simulations.

polymer simulations↗