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DOE OSTI2025

Model-independent measurement of the matter-radiation equality scale in DESI 2024

The peak of the matter power spectrum, known as the turnover (TO) scale, is determined by the horizon size at the time of matter-radiation equality. This scale can serve as a standard ruler, independent of other features in the matter power spectrum, such as baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO). Here, in this work, we present the first detection of the turnover in the galaxy autopower spectrum, utilizing the distribution of quasars and luminous red galaxies (LRG) measured by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) during its first year of survey operations in a model-independent manner. To avoid confirmation bias, we first analyze the data using data blinding methods designed for the DESI baryon acoustic oscillation, redshift space distortion and scale-dependent bias signals. We measure the angle-averaged dilation distance 𝐷 V ⁡(𝑧 = 1.651) = (38.1 ± 2.5)⁢𝑟 H from the quasars and 𝐷 V ⁡(𝑧 = 0.733) = (21.8 ± 1.0)⁢𝑟 H from the LRG sample in units of the horizon 𝑟 H at the matter-radiation-equality epoch. Combining these two constraints and assuming a flat Λ⁢CDM model with three standard neutrino species, we can translate this into a constraint of Ω m ⁢ℎ 2 = 0.13⁢9$^{+0.036}_{−0.046}$. We can break the Ω m −𝐻 0 degeneracy with low-redshift distance measurements from type-Ia supernova (SN) data from Pantheon+, we obtain a sound-horizon free estimate of the Hubble-Lemaître parameter of 𝐻 0 = 65.2$^{+4.9}_{−6.2}$ km/s/Mpc, consistent with sound-horizon dependent DESI measurements. On the other hand, combining the DESI BAO and TO, we find a truly DESI-only measurement of 𝐻 0 = 74.0$^{+7.2}_{−3.5}$ km/s/Mpc, in line with DESI-only full-shape results where the sound-horizon scale is marginalized out. This discrepancy in 𝐻 0 can be reconciled in a 𝑤 0 ⁢𝑤 𝑎 ⁢ CDM cosmology, where the combination of DESI BAO and TO data yields 𝐻 0 = 66.5 ± 7.2 km/s/Mpc.

cosmological parameters↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Physics Informed Spatio-Temporal Network for Streamflow Data Imputation

Reliable reconstruction of incomplete streamflow records is critical for improving hydrological forecasting, flood preparedness, and water resource management. However, large observational gaps and uncertainties in governing physical parameters limit the accuracy of traditional statistical and machinelearning imputation frameworks. To address these challenges, we develop a Bayesian Physics-Informed Spatio-Temporal Network (BPI-STNet) that jointly captures spatial and temporal dependencies while enforcing hydrologic consistency through embedded physical constraints. The framework integrates a GraphSAGE-LSTM architecture to model spatial connectivity across gauges and temporal flow dynamics, coupled with a Bayesian update mechanism to estimate uncertain parameters in a simplified water-balance framework. Unlike conventional physics-informed networks that rely on sampling-based posterior estimation, BPI-STNet derives an analytic solution to the inverse problem, allowing closed-form Bayesian updates of uncertain parameters Λ={α,β,k} using Gaussian priors and likelihoods. Applied to daily observations from the Susquehanna River Basin (1980-2022), BPI-STNet achieves substantial improvements over a purely data-driven RGNN baseline, which reduced RMSE by 23 % and MAE by 9 %, and achieving an average NSE values up to 0.96. The results demonstrate that coupling Bayesian inference with physics-informed learning yields physically consistent, uncertainty-aware reconstructions that preserve the temporal persistence and statistical distribution of observed flows. The proposed framework establishes a generalizable paradigm for data-sparse hydrologic systems where both data fidelity and physical interpretability are essential.

Krishnan Kutty Ambika, Anukesh [ORNL] (ORCID:00000↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electrical Load Forecasting Over Multihop Smart Metering Networks With Federated Learning

Electric load forecasting is essential for power management and stability in smart grids. This is mainly achieved via advanced metering infrastructure, where smart meters (SMs) record household energy data. Traditional machine learning (ML) methods are often employed for load forecasting, but require data sharing, which raises data privacy concerns. Federated learning (FL) can address this issue by running distributed ML models at local SMs without data exchange. However, current FL-based approaches struggle to achieve efficient load forecasting due to imbalanced data distribution across heterogeneous SMs. Here, this article presents a novel personalized FL (PFL) method for high-quality load forecasting in metering networks. A meta-learning-based strategy is developed to address data heterogeneity at local SMs in the collaborative training of local load forecasting models. Moreover, to minimize the load forecasting delays in our PFL model, we study a new latency optimization problem based on optimal resource allocation at SMs. A theoretical convergence analysis is also conducted to provide insights into FL design for federated load forecasting. Extensive simulations from real-world datasets show that our method outperforms existing approaches regarding better load forecasting and reduced operational latency costs.

Rahman, Ratun [Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL (U↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ecological acclimation: A framework to integrate fast and slow responses to climate change

Ecological responses to climate change occur across vastly different time-scales, from minutes for physiological plasticity to decades or centuries for community turnover and evolutionary adaptation. Accurately predicting the range of ecosystem trajectories will require models that incorporate both fast processes that may keep pace with climate change and slower ones likely to lag behind and generate disequilibrium dynamics. However, the knowledge necessary for this integration is currently fragmented across disciplines. We develop ‘ecological acclimation’ as a unifying framework to emphasize the similarity of dynamics driven by processes operating on dramatically different time-scales and levels of biological organization. The framework focuses on ecoclimate sensitivities, measured as the change in an ecological response variable per unit of climate change. Acclimation processes acting at different time-scales cause these sensitivities to shift in magnitude and even direction over time. We highlight shifting ecoclimate sensitivities in case studies from diverse ecosystems, including terrestrial plant communities, coral reefs and soil microbiomes. Models predicting future ecosystem states inevitably make assumptions about acclimation processes; these assumptions must be explicit for users to evaluate whether a model is appropriate for a given forecast horizon. Similarly, decision frameworks that clearly account for multiple acclimation processes and their distinct time-scales will help natural resource managers plan for ecological impacts of climate change from years to many decades into the future. We outline a synthetic research programme focused on the time-scales of ecological acclimation to reduce uncertainty in ecological forecasts.

climate adaptation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Linking Community‐Climate Disequilibrium to Ecosystem Function

Turnover in species composition often lags behind the pace of climate change, resulting in mismatches between climate and communities. However, the impact of these community‐climate disequilibria on ecosystem functions is rarely considered, and current methods for measuring disequilibria assume that species ranges were, until recently, in equilibrium with climate. Here, in this work, we develop a simple theoretical model to address both of these problems by linking community‐climate disequilibrium with ecosystem functioning. We show how disequilibrium can impair functioning in the near‐term even when climate change is expected to enhance functioning in the long‐term. Responses are most likely to change over time in communities where turnover is slow, the impact of disequilibrium counteracts the direct effects of climate on ecosystem function, and pre‐existing disequilibrium is large. These findings emphasise the importance of precise and unbiased estimates of community‐climate disequilibria for improving ecological forecasts. By fitting our model to time series of both climate and ecosystem function from a metacommunity simulation, we show the potential for community‐climate disequilibrium to be inferred without direct knowledge about species' distributions or climatic tolerances. We end by outlining a research agenda to apply dynamic disequilibrium concepts and test novel hypotheses across diverse ecosystems.

climate change↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrated Modeling Driven Evaluation of Opportunities for Climate‐Resilient Perennial Biomass Crop Plantings in Flood‐Prone Agricultural Landscapes

Adapting to future climate change in flood-prone landscapes will require climate-resilient agricultural systems. Planting perennial crops, like switchgrass and willow, along river corridors can mitigate future flooding while supporting bioenergy markets. We developed an integrated assessment linking climate, hydrologic, and inundation model results to assess future flood risk to river-adjacent agricultural lands in the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and explore this opportunity. We produced ensemble streamflow projections for every MAR stream using a hydrologic model driven by a suite of downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate projections. We then conducted high-resolution inundation mapping based on projected flood frequencies for baseline and future periods. Results show that in the near-term future, at least two-thirds of the streams will experience 100-year floods more severe than the baseline 200-year floods. Riparian zones are projected to face a median rise of inundation by 9.5%–24.1%. Results show that there is an opportunity to mitigate flooding in over half of MAR's counties with the quantities of switchgrass and willow plantings anticipated for mature bioenergy markets, even under the most extreme (200-year) flood events. Our integrated modeling framework can guide similar regions to evaluate opportunities for flood-resilient agricultural systems under climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding the dynamic nature of plant lipid anabolic and catabolic metabolism is key to sustainable oilseed engineering

Plant-derived oils are essential sources of reduced carbon and various fatty acid (FA) structures for food, biofuels, and the oleochemical industry. Despite extensive efforts, engineering mainstream oilseed crops to produce high levels of industrially valuable unusual FAs (UFAs) remains challenging. This review synthesizes recent advances in the understanding of lipid metabolic networks, emphasizing how species-specific regulation of FA synthesis, activation, and delivery influences triacylglycerol (TAG) assembly to govern the efficiency of UFA accumulation. Key insights reveal that acyl flux through anabolic and catabolic branches of lipid metabolism is tightly controlled by enzyme substrate selectivities, diacylglycerol (DAG) pool compartmentalization, and metabolic context, including lipid remodeling and degradation pathways. Engineering success is often constrained by incompatibilities between UFA biosynthetic enzymes and endogenous host metabolism, leading to flux imbalances, futile cycles, and undesired phenotypes. We highlight emerging strategies to overcome these barriers, such as the use of UFA-selective acyltransferases, coordinated manipulation of DAG source pools, suppression of competing endogenous enzymes, and exploitation of TAG remodeling mechanisms. This integrated synthesis provides a conceptual framework for logic-based engineering of oilseeds with enhanced UFA content by offering new avenues for sustainable biomanufacturing of valuable lipids.

acyltransferase specificity↗

DOE OSTI2025

Neutrino interaction vertex reconstruction in DUNE with Pandora deep learning

The Pandora Software Development Kit and algorithm libraries perform reconstruction of neutrino interactions in liquid argon time projection chamber detectors. Pandora is the primary event reconstruction software used at the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment, which will operate four large-scale liquid argon time projection chambers at the far detector site in South Dakota, producing high-resolution images of charged particles emerging from neutrino interactions. While these high-resolution images provide excellent opportunities for physics, the complex topologies require sophisticated pattern recognition capabilities to interpret signals from the detectors as physically meaningful objects that form the inputs to physics analyses. A critical component is the identification of the neutrino interaction vertex. Subsequent reconstruction algorithms use this location to identify the individual primary particles and ensure they each result in a separate reconstructed particle. A new vertex-finding procedure described in this article integrates a U-ResNet neural network performing hit-level classification into the multi-algorithm approach used by Pandora to identify the neutrino interaction vertex. The machine learning solution is seamlessly integrated into a chain of pattern-recognition algorithms. The technique substantially outperforms the previous BDT-based solution, with a more than 20% increase in the efficiency of sub-1 cm vertex reconstruction across all neutrino flavours.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Charged-particle multiplicity distributions over a wide pseudorapidity range in p–Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV

This paper presents the primary charged-particle multiplicity distributions in proton–lead collisions at a centre-of-mass energy per nucleon–nucleon collision of $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV. The distributions are reported for non-single diffractive collisions in different pseudorapidity ranges. The measurements are performed using the combined information from the Silicon Pixel Detector and the Forward Multiplicity Detector of ALICE. The multiplicity distributions are parametrised with a double negative binomial distribution function which provides satisfactory descriptions of the distributions for all the studied pseudorapidity intervals. The data are compared to models and analyzed quantitatively, evaluating the first four moments (mean, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis). The shape evolution of the measured multiplicity distributions is studied in terms of KNO variables and it is found that none of the considered models reproduces the measurements. This paper also reports on the average charged-particle multiplicity, normalised by the average number of participating nucleon pairs, as a function of the collision energy. The multiplicity results are then compared to measurements made in proton–proton and nucleus–nucleus collisions across a wide range of collision energies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of isolated prompt photon production in pp and p–Pb collisions at the LHC

This paper presents the measurement of the isolated prompt photon inclusive production cross section in pp and p–Pb collisions by the ALICE Collaboration at the LHC. The measurement is performed in p–Pb collisions at centre-of-mass energies per nucleon pair of $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 Te and 8.16 TeV, as well as in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 5.02 TeV and 8 TeV. The cross section is obtained at midrapidity (|γ| < 0.7) using a charged-track based isolation momentum p$^{iso,~ch}_{T}$ < 1.5 GeV/c in a cone with radius R = 0.4. The data for both collision systems are well reproduced by perturbative QCD (pQCD) calculations at next-to-leading order (NLO) using recent parton distribution functions for free (PDF) and bound (nPDF) nucleons. Furthermore, the nuclear modification factor R pA for both collision energies is consistent with unity for p T > 20 GeV/c. However, deviations from unity (R pA < 1) of up to 20% are observed for p T < 20 GeV/c with limited significance, indicating the possible presence of nuclear effects in the initial state of the collision.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Seasonal variations of the atmospheric muon neutrino spectrum measured with IceCube

This study presents an analysis of seasonal variations in the atmospheric muon neutrino flux, using 11.3 years of data from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. By leveraging a novel spectral unfolding method, we explore the energy range from 125 GeV to 10 TeV for zenith angles from 90° to 110°, corresponding to the Antarctic atmosphere. Our findings reveal that the differential measurement of the amplitudes of the seasonal variation is consistent with an energy-dependent decrease reaching (-4.5 ± 1.2)% during Austral winter and increase to (+ 3.9 ± 1.3)% during Austral summer relative to the annual average at 10 TeV. While the unfolded flux exceeds the model predictions by up to 30%, the differential measurement of the seasonal to annual average flux remains unaffected. The measured seasonal variations of the muon neutrino spectrum are consistent with theoretical predictions using the MCEq code and the NRLMSISE-00 atmospheric model.

Astroparticle Physics and High-Energy Cosmic Pheno↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reconstruction of atmospheric neutrinos in DUNE’s horizontal-drift far-detector module

This paper reports on the capabilities in reconstructing and identifying atmospheric neutrino interactions in one of the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment’s (DUNE) far detector modules, a liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) with horizontal drift (FD-HD) of ionization electrons. The reconstruction is based upon the workflow developed for DUNE’s long-baseline oscillation analysis, with some necessary machine-learning models’ retraining and the addition of features relevant only to atmospheric neutrinos such as the neutrino direction reconstruction. Where relevant, the impact of the detection of the charged particles of the hadronic system is emphasized, and comparisons are carried out between the case when lepton-only information is considered in the reconstruction (as is the case for many neutrino oscillation experiments), versus when all particles identified in the LArTPC were included. Three neutrino direction reconstruction methods have been developed and studied for the atmospheric analyses: using lepton-only information, using all reconstructed particles, and using only correlations from reconstructed hits. The results indicate that incorporating more than just lepton information significantly improves the resolution of both neutrino direction and energy reconstruction. The angle reconstruction algorithms developed in this work result in no strong dependence on particle direction for reconstruction efficiencies or neutrino flavor identification. This comprehensive review of the reconstruction of atmospheric neutrinos in DUNE’s FD-HD LArTPC is the first step towards developing a first neutrino oscillation sensitivity analysis, which will ready DUNE for its first measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Sensing Plant Photosynthesis Using Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence: From Chloroplasts to the Globe

Photosynthesis is the fundamental biological process that introduced oxygen into Earth's atmosphere and continues to power life, from the earliest single-celled organisms to entire global ecosystems. Yet, measuring photosynthesis across scales has been challenging because traditional techniques have not transcended scales. The emergence of remote-sensing techniques to measure solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) provides a unique approach to estimate photosynthesis across spatiotemporal scales, representing a new age for optical remote sensing to study photosynthesis and shaping the decades of satellite SIF research. Here, focusing on spatiotemporal scales, we review the mechanisms that drive the relationship between SIF and photosynthesis. Remotely sensed SIF is modulated by biological drivers, environmental drivers, the interaction between biological and environmental drivers, and the viewing geometry. Studying fluorescence at small scales provides the ecophysiological understanding needed to disentangle the biological and environmental drivers of SIF at larger scales. Leveraging progress in satellite SIF, future research should focus on cross-scale mechanistic understanding of the drivers of SIF and using SIF as a metric for plant function beyond photosynthesis.

ecophysiology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reactivity of the Hydrated Electron

Hydrated electrons are created in virtually every radiation environment and in many photochemical or electrochemical environments where liquid water is present, so their reaction products and reaction rate constants are naturally important in applications. Thanks to the strong optical absorbance of (e - ) aq , these rate constants are easy to measure, and a large database has been accumulated. It is not generally appreciated that no working theory of hydrated electron reaction rates presently exists. We discuss key experimental observations of hydrated electron reactions in the context of recent progress in theoretical and simulation developments toward understanding them, made possible by ever increasing computational power.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bubble Transport through a Porous Lattice with an Applied Inlet Flow

Within gas-evolving electrochemical systems, bubbles negatively impact performance by covering electrode active sites for reactions, blocking electric field lines, and obstructing liquid electrolyte flow causing pressure buildup. Recent additive manufacturing advances have enabled tuned porous electrode microstructures to be created, but producing systems that maximize electrochemical throughput and minimize bubble impact remains challenging. Thus, improved physical understanding of and modeling capabilities for bubble behavior are critical to improve electrolyzer design. To address this need, this study examines rising stage bubbles within a lattice with an applied liquid flow—an underexplored regime that strongly influences an electrochemical bubble’s fate. Notably, theoretical predictions and resolved bubble simulations are complemented by experiments from a 3D-printed visualization cell that matches the simulation geometry. The minimum threshold flow rate to achieve bubble breakthrough is found to be larger for higher porosities and for smaller bubbles. Different-sized bubbles decrease expected electrochemical performance in different ways; smaller bubbles tend to stay stuck but cover less solid surface, while larger bubbles more readily break through but cover more surface while in the lattice. The bubble trajectory, deformation, and contact area provide insight into these different behaviors. These findings provide design guidelines toward creating more effective electrolyzers.

Guo, Jack [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory ↗

DOE OSTI2025

CoVVVR: Control Variates & Vegas Variance Reduction

This package is a wrapper over the vegas integration package. The control variate variance reduction method is applied to the function when integrated along with the techniques applied in vegas such as importance sampling. To understand control variates, lets first look at how Monte Carlo works.

Scott, JacobL. [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (Uni↗

DOE OSTI2026

Turbulence and Cloudiness in Cumulus-Topped Marine Boundary Layers

Turbulence and cloudiness in cumulus-topped marine boundary layers are studied using data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site. The analysis includes eight periods of nonprecipitating shallow cumulus clouds, spanning 141 h and encompassing 603 individual clouds. On average, the cumulus had bases at 558 m, were 99 m thick, had a chord length of 500 m, and exhibited an hourly base-layer cloudiness of 12%. Changes in cloud fraction were primarily driven by variations in cloud number not chord length. High-resolution Doppler lidar and cloud radar observations were used to estimate updraft and downdraft mass fluxes in the cumulus base layer under both clear and cloudy regions. Cloudy updrafts contributed only ∼23% of the total updraft mass flux at cloud base, indicating that most upward mass flux originated from clear-air eddies. Updraft strength, rather than updraft fraction, was found to predominantly control both clear and cloudy updraft mass fluxes. Cloud-base cloudiness strongly correlated with cloudy updraft mass flux but showed negligible correlation with clear-air updraft mass flux. Clear-air downdraft mass flux exhibited a strong relationship with the ratio of surface buoyancy to inversion strength. Mesoscale analysis revealed that moist patches had greater cloudiness, updraft mass flux, and vertical velocity variance compared to dry patches. Additionally, mesoscale base-layer cloud fraction was highly and significantly correlated with cloudy updraft mass flux in both dry and moist environments. Results presented herein have implications for cumulus parameterization development along with climatological and model evaluation studies conducted at the ENA site.

cumulus clouds↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancement of harmonic generation by an intense driving laser with high-order waveguide modes in a high-pressure gas-filled hollow waveguide

High-order harmonics have been widely used as reliable tabletop coherent radiation sources recently, but their applications have often been limited by the available pulse energy. Here, we report that by using an overdriven intense laser in a long waveguide with high-pressure gas, phase matching can be achieved in three distinct “regimes”. In the third regime, favorable phase matching is achieved at near-axis positions to enhance harmonic yields. Our results are supported by a full theoretical analysis, and we demonstrate that coupling of the driving laser with the high-order waveguide modes (instead of the fundamental mode used in most prior experiments) is responsible for achieving phase matching. Furthermore, we establish that this phase matching (and harmonic enhancement) is robust, and a scaling relation is derived for the necessary waveguide and gas parameters, allowing our predictions to be tested immediately in any laboratory today.

Li, Baochang [Nanjing University of Science and Te↗