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At least 775 records · Page 43

Predicting Near-Term Changes in the Earth System: A Large Ensemble of Initialized Decadal Prediction Simulations Using the Community Earth System Model

The objective of near-term climate prediction is to improve our fore-knowledge, from years to a decade or more in advance, of impactful climate changes that can in general be attributed to a combination of internal and externally forced variability. Predictions initialized using observations of past climate states are tested by comparing their ability to reproduce past climate evolution with that of uninitialized simulations in which the same radiative forcings are applied. A new set of decadal prediction (DP) simulations has recently been completed using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and is now available to the community. This new large-ensemble (LE) set (CESM-DPLE) is composed of historical simulations that are integrated forward for 10 years following initialization on 1 November of each year between 1954 and 2015. CESM-DPLE represents the “initialized” counterpart to the widely studied CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE); both simulation sets have 40-member ensembles, and they use identical model code and radiative forcings. Comparing CESM-DPLE to CESM-LE highlights the impacts of initialization on prediction skill and indicates that robust assessment and interpretation of DP skill may require much larger ensembles than current protocols recommend. CESM-DPLE exhibits significant and potentially useful prediction skill for a wide range of fields, regions, and time scales, and it shows widespread improvement over simpler benchmark forecasts as well as over a previous initialized system that was submitted to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Finally, the new DP system offers new capabilities that will be of interest to a broad community pursuing Earth system prediction research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

USING TIME VARIANT VOLTAGE TO CALCULATE ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND POWER USE OF BUILDING SYSTEMS

Buildings are the main consumers of electricity across the world. However, in the research and studies related to building performance assessment, the focus has been on evaluating the energy efficiency of buildings whereas the instantaneous power efficiency has been overlooked as an important aspect of total energy consumption. As a result, we never developed adequate models that capture both thermal and electrical characteristics (e.g., voltage) of building systems to assess the impact of variations in the power system and emerging technologies of the smart grid on buildings energy and power performance and vice versa. This paper argues that the power performance of buildings as a function of electrical parameters should be evaluated in addition to systems’ mechanical and thermal behavior. The main advantage of capturing electrical behavior of building load is to better understand instantaneous power consumption and more importantly to control it. Voltage is one of the electrical parameters that can be used to describe load. Hence, voltage dependent power models are constructed in this work and they are coupled with existing thermal energy models. Lack of models that describe electrical behavior of systems also adds to the uncertainty of energy consumption calculations carried out in building energy simulation tools such as EnergyPlus, a common building energy modeling and simulation tool. To integrate voltage-dependent power models with thermal models, the thermal cycle (operation mode) of each system was fed into the voltage-based electrical model. Energy consumption of systems used in this study were simulated using EnergyPlus. Simulated results were then compared with estimated and measured power data. The mean square error (MSE) between simulated, estimated, and measured values were calculated. Results indicate that estimated power has lower MSE when compared with measured data than simulated results. Results discussed in this paper will illustrate the significance of enhancing building energy models with electrical characteristics. This would support different studies such as those related to modernization of the power system that require micro scale building-grid interaction, evaluating building energy efficiency with power efficiency considerations, and also design and control decisions that rely on accuracy of building energy simulation results.

Makhmalbaf, Atefe↗

Modeling the 4D discharge of lithium-ion batteries with a multiscale time-dependent deep learning framework

The lithium-ion battery (LIB) field is moving towards the direction of investigating spatially resolved physical phenomena in the 3D porous microstructure of electrodes. These pore-scale simulations give new insights into the local dynamics of lithiation/de-lithiation and charge transport, Nevertheless, the computational time of these simulations limits the integration of these models in optimization workflows of cycling conditions or electrode manufacturing processes. Machine learning models present a way of assessing in real-time the performance of materials. While several successful techniques for replicating simulations with machine learning have been proposed, this case study presents a more demanding problem, due to the necessity of understanding the behavior of heterogeneous 3D local data, as it evolves in time: this poses both a scientific and a technical challenge. To this end, we propose an autoregressive multiscale convolutional neural network model to predict relevant quantities at the pore-scale in the solid phase: the lithium concentration (in the active material) and potential (in the active material and carbon binder). Here, these are ultimately used to reconstruct the battery discharge curve. 3D images of the electrode microstructures are the input to the network, trained with a dataset of finite element method simulations to predict the discharge behavior of the cathode side in lithium ion batteries. We propose this machine learning model as a proof-of-concept of the applicability of multiscale networks for time-dependent physics problems. The trained model exhibits very high accuracy (with errors lower than 2 %) in forecasting the discharge behavior of new unseen cathodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

PHYSICS OF A PARTIALLY IONIZED GAS RELEVANT TO GALAXY FORMATION SIMULATIONS-THE IONIZATION POTENTIAL ENERGY RESERVOIR

Simulation codes for galaxy formation and evolution take on board as many physical processes as possible beyond the standard gravitational and hydrodynamical physics. Most of this extra physics takes place below the resolution level of the simulations and is added in a ''sub-grid'' fashion. However, these sub-grid processes affect the macroscopic hydrodynamical properties of the gas and thus couple to the ''on-grid'' physics that is explicitly integrated during the simulation. In this paper, we focus on the link between partial ionization and the hydrodynamical equations. We show that the energy stored in ions and free electrons constitutes a potential energy term which breaks the linear dependence of the internal energy on temperature. Correctly taking into account ionization hence requires modifying both the equation of state and the energy-temperature relation. We implemented these changes in the cosmological simulation code GADGET2. As an example of the effects of these changes, we study the propagation of Sedov-Taylor shock waves through an ionizing medium. This serves as a proxy for the absorption of supernova feedback energy by the interstellar medium. Depending on the density and temperature of the surrounding gas, we find that up to 50% of the feedback energy is spent ionizing the gas rather than heating it. Thus, it can be expected that properly taking into account ionization effects in galaxy evolution simulations will drastically reduce the effects of thermal feedback. To the best of our knowledge, this potential energy term is not used in current simulations of galaxy formation and evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Deep Learning-enhanced Block-Diagram Modeling of Solar Power Systems

Data-driven models of power system inverter-based resources are desired to run simulations faster than with detailed electromagnetic transient models, to hide proprietary design details, to support control system design applications, and to aggregate the effects of distributed energy resources. This paper applies a customized Hammerstein Wiener framework to train block diagram models from thousands of electromagnetic transient simulations or experimental test records. The block diagram models integrate with larger grid simulations as voltagecontrolled current sources or current-controlled voltage sources for several simulators. Guidelines for block architecture and training are presented. Three-phase balanced, three-phase unbalanced, and single-phase examples all achieve an acceptable root mean square error of no more than 0.05 per-unit.

Mcdermott, Thomas E. [Private consulting company]↗

28 NREL Stratus - Enabling Workflows to Fuse Data Streams, Modeling, Simulation, and Machine Learning: Preprint

Integrating cloud services into advanced computing facilities provides significant new capabilities over focusing solely on traditional high performance computing (HPC) workloads. This brings complementary capabilities as well as enabling new focused roles for HPC. They are especially potent for workflows that fuse data streams, modeling and simulation ('modsim') and machine learning. A key challenge to adopting a hybrid edge-cloud-HPC model is to align optimal capability, data, and user intent on the right resources for each step in a workflow.?The NREL Stratus service provides a basis for this: Stratus layers capabilities needed to make?cloud services accessible to a lab-based scientific community on commercial offerings, and; currently supports upwards of 200 projects ranging from IOT integration to traditional modeling and simulation. This provides a real-world inventory of scientific workflow elements. A growing knowledge base enables placing these elements appropriately between the edge, cloud, and traditional HPC. This paper outlines a vision via reference architecture and the application of that architecture in a typical workflow highlighting multiple components: sensor data intake, cleaning and transforming (edge/cloud suitable); generation of synthetic data through modsim, computationally heavy ML training and hyperparameter optimization (HPC suitable), and; inference and deployment (cloud ideal). Every step in such a workflow involves a cost-benefit analysis regarding the data movement, computational efficiency, availability, latency, and resource capabilities. The reference architecture and examples outlined allow for understanding new opportunities in the context of emerging workflows that combine IOT, cloud, and HPC to bolster scientific productivity.

AI↗

A novel digital lifecycle for Material‐Process‐Microstructure‐Performance relationships of thermoplastic olefins foams manufactured via supercritical fluid assisted foam injection molding

Abstract This research significantly enhances the applicability of thermoplastic olefins (TPOs) in the automotive industry using supercritical N 2 as a physical foaming agent, effectively addressing the limitations of traditional chemical agents. It merges experimental results with simulations to establish detailed material‐process‐microstructure‐performance (MP2) relationships, targeting 5–20% weight reductions. This innovative approach labeled digital lifecycle (DLC) helps accurately predict tensile, flexural, and impact properties based on the foam microstructure, along with experimentally demonstrating improved paintability. The study combines process simulations with finite element models to develop a comprehensive digital model for accurately predicting mechanical properties. Our findings demonstrate a strong correlation between simulated and experimental data, with about a 5% error across various weight reduction targets, marking significant improvements over existing analytical models. This research highlights the efficacy of physical foaming agents in TPO enhancement and emphasizes the importance of integrating experimental and simulation methods to capture the underlying foaming mechanism to establish material‐process‐microstructure‐performance (MP2) relationships. Highlights Establishes a material‐process‐microstructure‐performance (MP2) for TPO foams Sustainably produces TPO foams using supercritical (ScF) N 2 with 20% lightweighting Shows enhanced paintability for TPO foam improved surface aesthetics Digital lifecycle (DLC) that predicts both foam microstructure and properties DLC maps process effects & microstructure onto FEA mesh for precise prediction

Engineering↗

Sodium dopants in helium clusters: Structure, equilibrium and submersion kinetics

Alkali impurities bind to helium nanodroplets very differently depending on their size and charge state, large neutral or charged dopants being wetted by the droplet whereas small neutral impurities prefer to reside aside. Using various computational modeling tools such as quantum Monte Carlo and path-integral molecular dynamics simulations, we have revisited some aspects of the physical chemistry of helium droplets interacting with sodium impurities, including the onset of snowball formation in presence of many-body polarization forces, the transition from non-wetted to wetted behavior in larger sodium clusters, and the kinetics of submersion of small dopants after sudden ionization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Qualitative Conditions for Reasonable Estimates of Kerma Using Total and Kerma Cross Section Attenuation of Photons

Performing a full adjoint simulation in the Integrated Tiger Series (ITS) can be time consuming to obtain statistically significant results. The ray-trace capability in ITS allows for rapid scoping calculations of the uncollided kerma from photon sources without needing to run a full adjoint simulation. However, the uncollided estimate will always underestimate the full-physics kerma since it neglects scattered radiation, and under certain conditions, the result from the capability may not provide a sufficiently accurate estimate of the full-physics kerma. To exemplify the conditions in which the capability provides reasonable estimates, two problem geometries with different materials are simulated using the full adjoint capability as well as the ray-trace capability with a total cross section treatment and a new kerma-attenuation cross-section treatment. The results are then compared to show under which conditions the estimates are accurate. Reasonable estimates are provided from the ray-trace feature when there is minimal scattering into a region of interest occurring, such as with low-Z material and when the photons travel through small amounts of material.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Distribution Systems Planning and Analysis Framework for Indian Feeders - Partnership with BSES/BRPL

Integration of distributed energy resources (DER) such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles (EVs) and battery energy storage systems (BESS) is expected to rapidly increase in distribution systems in India. These grid edge resources can have adverse impacts on the grid and can provide additional revenue streams as well. To mitigate these impacts distribution planning and analysis is required. So this paper presents a framework which can be used to complete all steps involved in distribution planning and analysis. This framework uses data in the same format as is readily available with Indian utilities and processes it to generate detailed feeder models and loading profiles. This framework already includes multiple DER use cases such as peak shaving for BESS and EV demand modelling and can be easily extended to simulate a number of additional use cases. All of these use cases can be simulated in parallel for multi-year time series simulations using an integrated command line interface. A suit of grid readiness metrics are then evaluated for each simulation to determine required network upgrades and associated costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Distribution Systems Planning and Analysis Framework for Indian Feeders: Preprint

Integration of distributed energy resources (DER) such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles (EVs) and battery energy storage systems (BESS) is expected to rapidly increase in distribution systems in India. These grid edge resources can have adverse impacts on the grid and can provide additional revenue streams as well. To mitigate these impacts distribution planning and analysis is required. So this paper presents a framework which can be used to complete all steps involved in distribution planning and analysis. This framework uses data in the same format as is readily available with Indian utilities and processes it to generate detailed feeder models and loading profiles. This framework already includes multiple DER use cases such as peak shaving for BESS and EV demand modelling and can be easily extended to simulate a number of additional use cases. All of these use cases can be simulated in parallel for multi-year time series simulations using an integrated command line interface. A suit of grid readiness metrics are then evaluated for each simulation to determine required network upgrades and associated costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Burn propagation in magnetized high-yield inertial fusion

Recent experiments at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) have demonstrated ignition for the first time in an inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiment, a major milestone allowing the possibility of high energy gain through burn propagation. Use of external magnetic fields, applied primarily to reduce thermal losses, could increase hotspot temperature and ease requirements for ignition, opening up the capsule design space for high energy gain. However, this same restriction of thermal transport has the potential to inhibit burn propagation, which is vital in the attainment of high gain. In this work, radiation-magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations carried out using the code Chimera are used to investigate the effect of a pre-imposed magnetic field on ignition and burn propagation. This paper studies the propagation of burn using both an idealized planar model and in fully integrated 2D MHD simulations of an igniting NIF capsule. A study of magnetized burn propagation in the idealized planar model identifies three regimes of magnetized burn propagation: (1) thermal conduction driven; (2) alpha transport driven; and (3) fully suppressed burn. Simulations of NIF shot N210808 with an applied 40 T axial field show clear indication of burn suppression perpendicular to field lines, with rapid burn observed along field lines. Implosion shape is altered by the field, and anisotropic conduction causes significant modification to the rate of ablation during stagnation. These results highlight the fundamental changes to implosion dynamics in high-yield magnetized ICF and motivate further study to better optimize future magnetized target designs for high gain.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

An Evaluation of Co-Simulation for Modeling Coupled Natural Gas and Electricity Networks

Reliance on natural gas for power generation has increased the coupling between gas and power networks. While this coupling can bring operational and economic benefits, it can also yield challenges, as the constraints in one system can impact the other. Co-simulation can capture the constraints and interactions between these systems, but so far, there has been limited comparison of co-simulation results to those of an integrated model. In this work, we develop a new co-simulation framework using the HELICS platform and the SAInt tool for modeling transient gas and AC optimal power flow. We evaluate this co-simulation framework against a fully integrated version of the SAInt power and gas simulators, thus providing a benchmarking of the co-simulation approach. We compare results across the two approaches for two test networks and a network representing the Belgian power and gas networks, testing both normal operating conditions and cases with compressor disruptions. In each of the cases tested, we find nearly identical results from the two approaches across various metrics of interest, such as nodal pressure, gas flow rates, and active power generation. This alignment suggests that co-simulation can yield comparable results to fully integrated models for modeling coupled gas and electricity networks.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Strategies for Integrating Deep Learning Surrogate Models with HPC Simulation Applications

The emerging trend of the convergence of high performance computing (HPC), machine learning/deep learning (ML/DL), and big data analytics presents a host of challenges for large-scale computing campaigns that seek best practices to interleave traditional scientific simulation-based workloads with ML/DL models. A portfolio of systematic approaches to incorporate deep learning into modeling and simulation serves a vital need when we support AI for science at a computing facility. In this paper, we evaluate several strategies for deploying deep learning surrogate models in a representative physics application on supercomputers at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF). We discuss a set of recommended deployment architectures and implementation approaches. We analyze and evaluate these alternatives and show their performance and scalability up to 1000 GPUs on two mainstream platforms equipped with different deep learning hardware and software stacks.

Yin, Junqi↗

Active Learning Surrogates for Integrating Electron Microscopy and Computational Insights from Simulations in Autonomous Experiments

Artificial Intelligence (AI) combined with simulations and experiments has great potential to accelerate scientific discovery across technology and pharmaceuticals. However, the gap between simulations and experiments is challenging due to disparities in time and scale, making it difficult to estimate properties like energy and electronic states from experiments, and to provide feedback based on theoretical insights.Our research addresses the challenge by developing unique deep kernel based surrogate models that learns from microscopic images, mapping structural features to energy differences from defect formation. We start with full-training using simulated images to determine optimal settings, establishing a baseline for active learning. Using these settings from the baseline, active learning is trained, and predicts structures along simulation trajectories based on uncertainty and energetic stability, thus reducing data requirements, simulation time and computational costs. The results demonstrate that the model achieves a low average error margin of approximately 0.03 meV, indicating good performance. To enhance feature extraction and reconstruction capabilities, we developed an autoencoder-decoder as additional surrogate to create latent space to capture essential features, enabling precise comparisons between simulations and experiments. The results from this model achieved a reconstruction loss of around 0.2 and accurately reconstructed molecular structures.Overall, this work advances the steering of experiments through computational simulations by employing a surrogate models that actively predicts the trajectories of structural evolution, achieving time-to-solution comparable to experimental measurements.

Saranathan, Gayathri [Hewlett-Packard]↗

Platform for Integrated Land use And Transportation Experiments and Simulation (PILATES) v1.0

PILATES allows for flexibly and at-scale coupling of multiple models to allow for multi-scale and multi-resolution simulation of regional-scale transport networks. In particular, it couples the MATSim-derived transportation modeling framework for Behavior, Energy, Autonomy and Mobility (BEAM) with other models operating at different time scales. Rather than tightly coupling supply and demand models using shared agents and memory within the same software process, PILATES orchestrates different model runs in a containerized framework. This structure requires passing information from the demand models to BEAM in the format of a synthetic population and agent plans, and from BEAM to the demand models in terms or origin/destination tables (also known as "skims"). This allows it to take advantage of the behavioral sophistication of existing activity-based models as well as the reinforcement learning structure of MATSim replanning and adopted by BEAM, in a way that requires minimal changes to existing models. It also takes advantage of the computational performance of BEAM, which allows for simulations with millions of agents to complete in reasonable time as well as allowing for detailed mechanistic simulation of the operation of on-demand modes.

Needell, Zachary↗