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At least 775 records · Page 43

From Process to Product: Your Risk Process at Work

The Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) at the NASA/Johnson Space Center work together to address and manage the human health and performance risks associated with human space flight. This includes all human system requirements before, during, and after space flight, providing for research, and managing the risk of adverse long-term health outcomes for the crew. We previously described the framework and processes developed for identifying and managing these human system risks. The focus of this panel is to demonstrate how the implementation of the framework and associated processes has provided guidance in the management and communication of human system risks. The risks of early onset osteoporosis, CO2 exposure, and intracranial hypertension in particular have all benefitted from the processes developed for human system risk management. Moreover, we are continuing to develop capabilities, particularly in the area of information architecture, which will also be described. We are working to create a system whereby all risks and associated actions can be tracked and related to one another electronically. Such a system will enhance the management and communication capabilities for the human system risks, thereby increasing the benefit to researchers and flight surgeons.

Kundrot, Craig E.↗

Information Systems for Crew-Led Operations Beyond Low-Earth Orbit

On past and present human space missions, the management of vehicle health and status has primarily been executed from Earth. Missions such as Apollo, Space Shuttle, and ISS have relied on a safety net of ground-based experts with access to real-time telemetry data, broad and deep systems expertise, and powerful analytical and computing capabilities. The ground team monitors and manages the vehicle’s health in real-time and responds quickly to critical situations and malfunctions. Ground operators also provide real-time oversight and verbal guidance to flight crew members, especially during complex procedure execution and high-risk activities like extra-vehicular activities. However, this operational paradigm, in place for 60 years, will not transfer to long duration exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). Lunar and deep-space crewed missions will encounter delayed communications that prohibit real-time operational and medical support. Additionally, there will be infrequent resupply and a diminished capacity to evacuate or rescue crew members. A small crew must operate independently, managing the vehicle’s state, responding to time-critical events, and executing complex procedures, all without the safety net of real-time support.

data representation↗

Space Station Freedom (SSF) crew systems SE&I

Space Station program office planning and requirements activity has accelerated during the past year to bring the Space Station Freedom Program (SSF) through the program requirements review phase during 1988. The preliminary design review cycle began in Jan. 89, and is now planned for completion, with formal preliminary design reviews between Apr. and Sept., 1990. This paper briefly describes the PROGRAMMATIC aspects of the engineering and integration management of the SSF crew systems. Emphasis is given to the Crew Health Care System, which includes the Health Maintenance Facility, the Exercise Countermeasure Facility, and the Environmental Health System; all managed within the Man-Systems, one of the twelve 'distributed systems.' Medical and engineering requirements to meet the needs of the mature Space Station operations environment and highlights of critical technologies and equipment in development will be reviewed.

Austin, Frank H., Jr.↗

Industrial Hygiene Issues

This breakout session is a traditional conference instrument used by the NASA industrial hygiene personnel as a method to convene personnel across the Agency with common interests. This particular session focused on two key topics, training systems and automation of industrial hygiene data. During the FY 98 NASA Occupational Health Benchmarking study, the training system under development by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was deemed to represent a "best business practice." The EPA has invested extensively in the development of computer based training covering a broad range of safety, health and environmental topics. Currently, five compact disks have been developed covering the topics listed: Safety, Health and Environmental Management Training for Field Inspection Activities; EPA Basic Radiation Training Safety Course; The OSHA 600 Collateral Duty Safety and Health Course; and Key program topics in environmental compliance, health and safety. Mr. Chris Johnson presented an overview of the EPA compact disk-based training system and answered questions on its deployment and use across the EPA. This training system has also recently been broadly distributed across other Federal Agencies. The EPA training system is considered "public domain" and, as such, is available to NASA at no cost in its current form. Copies of the five CD set of training programs were distributed to each NASA Center represented in the breakout session. Mr. Brisbin requested that each NASA Center review the training materials and determine whether there is interest in using the materials as it is or requesting that EPA tailor the training modules to suit NASA's training program needs. The Safety, Health and Medical Services organization at Ames Research Center has completed automation of several key program areas. Mr. Patrick Hogan, Safety Program Manager for Ames Research Center, presented a demonstration of the automated systems, which are described by the following: (1) Safety, Health and Environmental Training. This system includes an assessment of training needs for every NASA Center organization, course descriptions, schedules and automated course scheduling, and presentation of training program metrics; (2) Safety and Health Inspection Information. This system documents the findings from each facility inspection, tracks abatement status on those findings and presents metrics on each department for senior management review; (3) Safety Performance Evaluation Profile. The survey system used by NASA to evaluate employee and supervisory perceptions of safety programs is automated in this system; and (4) Documentation Tracking System. Electronic archive and retrieval of all correspondence and technical reports generated by the Safety, Health and Medical Services Office are provided by this system.

Brisbin, Steven G.↗

Major Achievements of the Springfields Decommissioning Program - 16512

Since the 1940's, Springfields has manufactured fuel products for the UK's nuclear power stations and for international customers. The early operations were in support of the atomic weapons program, closely followed by fuel manufacture for electricity generation via the Magnox power stations commencing in the late 1950's. In 2005, responsibility for the assets and liabilities of Springfields was transferred to the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA). A new company, Springfields Fuels Limited, was created to run the site, which was managed and operated by Westinghouse Electric UK Ltd on the NDA's behalf. On April 1, 2010, Westinghouse entered into an agreement with the NDA for a long-term lease of the Springfields site, which transferred responsibility for the commercial fuel manufacturing business and Springfields Fuels Limited to Westinghouse. Today, the main Springfields activities include: - Oxide fuels for Advanced Gas-cooled and Light Water Reactors, as well as intermediate fuel products, such as powders, granules and pellets, - Manufacture of Uranium Hexafluoride (now in Care and Maintenance), - Processing and recovery of Uranium residues, - Decommissioning and demolition of redundant plants and buildings. Some 120 plant buildings and support facilities have been successfully decommissioned and demolished in the period 1996 to date. These range from 1940's buildings, subsequently converted for nuclear fuel manufacture, together with some of the formerly sealed chemical agent manufacture and storage facilities. Decommissioning of the now redundant Magnox manufacturing facilities is ongoing at Springfields without compromising the other site operations. Westinghouse is managing all activities related to the whole lifecycle, planning, design, safety case, radiation protection, Post Operational Clean Out (POCO), service diversions, characterization, decommissioning all phases through to ground remediation, waste disposal and agreed end states. Decommissioning of process plants starts with the removal of the majority of radiological activity or hazard contained within the plant. This is known as Post Operational Clean Out. Once this is complete, the plant may be dismantled. Work is scoped and defined within packages (at plant or cell level) to aid control and commercial monitoring as the decommissioning is progressed. This package approach also enables clean or lightly contaminated items to be removed separately to aid potential re-cycling and minimize decontamination and waste disposal costs. Westinghouse is further optimising work package delivery by planning parallel POCO and Decommissioning work phases within plant at a cell level to systematically remove redundant plant and reduce hazard earlier, whilst optimising use of both internal and external resources to reduce total project cost. Waste and Residues from all phases are disposed of via authorized disposal routes and in accordance with our environmental authorizations. On completion of decommissioning and removal of plant and equipment the building is re-assessed radiologically, categorized and appropriate remediation work progressed to render it safe for conventional demolition. The major elements of the success achieved to date can be attributed to the following elements: - Overall programme management with extensive experience of planning, cost, and risk management. Integration of the programme within a major commercial site without compromising safety or operations. - Complete site EHS management working within a complex regulatory framework including the Nuclear Site Licenses, Environmental Authorisations and Security requirements. - Avoiding safety complacency by use of rigorous and systematic process to emphasise safety over competing goals. Including structured use of Human Performance and Corrective Action and Learning processes. - Unique safety experiences attained through complex hazard reduction across a broad range of uranium manufacturing and chemical hazard/agent facilities. - Project leadership and excellence utilizing a core site team to deploy repeatable processes and safe practices to deliver complex scope within budget and schedule. - Optimised use of internal and external resources, with extensive use of Operating Experience to drive continuous improvement and problem resolution. - Management of Contractors from initial selection, pre-qualification, tender assessment and Performance using varied contract forms across delivery phases. - Use of Westinghouse expertise for safety case, waste management, uranium recovery, health physics and design. - Implementation of a work package to ensure gated discreet manageable packages. Underpinned by package specific method statements, with appropriate hold points to maintain management and control of the works. - Continuous local safety focus via safety planning, induction, plant specific training, proactive risk assessment, and a defined approach to decoupling operating plant safety cases enabling focussed and usable documentation. This paper will provide an overview of the latest decommissioning activities achieved on the Springfields site and will focus on best practices that allowed Westinghouse to maintain the program on time and on budget. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Contaminants in tropical island streams and their biota

Highlights: • Puerto Rico is a model environment to study contaminants in tropical island streams. • Water, sediment, and native fish and shrimp species were sampled in 13 rivers. • Stream habitat and biota were not severely polluted due to frequent flushing flows and floods. • Results may inform human health and development of fish consumption guidelines for Puerto Rico. Environmental contamination is problematic for tropical islands due to their typically dense human populations and competing land and water uses. The Caribbean island of Puerto Rico (USA) has a long history of anthropogenic chemical use, and its human population density is among the highest globally, providing a model environment to study contaminant impacts on tropical island stream ecosystems. Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons, historic-use chlorinated pesticides, current-use pesticides, Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs), and metals (mercury, cadmium, copper, lead, nickel, zinc, and selenium) were quantified in the habitat and biota of Puerto Rico streams and assessed in relation to land-use patterns and toxicological thresholds. Water, sediment, and native fish and shrimp species were sampled in 13 rivers spanning broad watershed land-use characteristics during 2009–2010. Contrary to expectations, freshwater stream ecosystems in Puerto Rico were not severely polluted, likely due to frequent flushing flows and reduced deposition associated with recurring flood events. Notable exceptions of contamination were nickel in sediment within three agricultural watersheds (range 123–336 ppm dry weight) and organic contaminants (PCBs, organochlorine pesticides) and mercury in urban landscapes. At an urban site, PCBs in several fish species (Mountain Mullet Agonostomus monticola [range 0.019–0.030 ppm wet weight] and American Eel Anguilla rostrata [0.019–0.031 ppm wet weight]) may pose human health hazards, with concentrations exceeding the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) consumption limit for 1 meal/month. American Eel at the urban site also contained dieldrin (range < detection-0.024 ppm wet weight) that exceeded the EPA maximum allowable consumption limit. The Bigmouth Sleeper Gobiomorous dormitor, an important piscivorus sport fish, accumulated low levels of organic contaminants in edible muscle tissue (due to its low lipid content) and may be most suitable for human consumption island-wide; only mercury at one site (an urban location) exceeded EPA's consumption limit of 3 meals/month for this species. These results comprise the first comprehensive island-wide contaminant assessment of Puerto Rico streams and biota and provide natural resource and public health agencies here and in similar tropical islands elsewhere with information needed to guide ecosystem and fisheries conservation and management and human health risk assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Clinical Decision Support - Concepts of Operation

We are entering a new era in space exploration to return to the moon and explore Mars. These ambitious goals will require significant changes to in-flight and habitat medical care due to constraints on mass, volume, power, crew time and medical evacuation capabilities. These constraints make it absolutely necessary to develop transformative solutions using new technologies. The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element of the Human Research Program (HRP) pushes the boundary of space medical systems to advance the care of astronauts on future exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit by identifying and testing next-generation medical care and crew health maintenance technologies. The Clinical Decision Support (CDS) project addresses the gap Medical-701 within the Inflight Medical Conditions risk: Enhance medical capabilities within an exploration medical system. For long-duration, deep space missions, computational and data resources will play an important role in maintaining crew health, wellness and performance where the crew will need to be more self-reliant. The aim of the CDS project is to develop and provide recommended requirements for an in-vehicle CDSS that acts as an assistant for delivering optimal health and performance and medical care during exploration missions. The CDSS is envisioned as a software-based tool that will augment a crewmembers’ knowledge, skills and abilities to assist in decision-making and crew health and performance (CHP) management thus increasing CHP systems capabilities. The human interface will be context aware and lessen the cognitive load to assimilate and use information as well as combine large disparate data sets in such a manner that provides the crew with actionable insight to decisions related to crew medical, health and performance management. Crew autonomy will be provided through a CDS that presents knowledge and data in a context aware manner to augment a crew members’ knowledge, skills and abilities during the process of observation, orientation, decisions and action. The CDS project addresses the need for crew members to operate independently during long duration space exploration missions that require medical Levels of Care (LoC) V, the highest level specified by NASA-STD-3001 and described in more detail by the ExMC interpretation of LoC document (NASA/TM-2017-219290), where significant changes to in-flight and habitat medical care necessitate increasing crew autonomy in decision making and task performance. The CDS project will develop and test a series of iterative and increasingly more complex system prototypes. These annual demonstrations of the data system integration with the crew health and performance domain will inform exploration medical system requirements for an on-board Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) through a series of use cases that guide CDS prototype functionality. CDS concepts are based on ExMC Concept of Operations documents (presented separately) and will highlight architecture extensibility to other more complex analyses and tests using core crew health and performance integrated data management, processing and visualization capabilities. This approach also establishes how externally developed analyses and approaches could be added to expand a clinical decision support system and thus highlight how a comprehensive system can be commercially and/or globally developed. The CDS project will build upon the concept of an integrated data management approach based on the Medical Data Architecture (MDA) project to more fully address challenges associated with in-flight and habitat medical, health and performance care due to constraints on mass, volume, power, crew time and medical evacuation capabilities required for medical LoC V. These requirements will be derived through systems engineering approaches and software prototype developments over the course of the multi-year CDS project to address crew health and performance decision-making and task performance, often autonomously executed by the crew, in a manner that is consistent with the appropriate medical level of care for the mission. This presentation will provide an overview of the vision for the CDS project and highlight the initial accomplishments in project planning, implementation and requirements identification in fiscal year 2020.

clinical decision support↗

Clinical Decision Support - Overview and Update

We are entering a new era in space exploration to return to the moon and explore Mars. These ambitious goals will require significant changes to in-flight and habitat medical care due to constraints on mass, volume, power, crew time and medical evacuation capabilities. These constraints make it absolutely necessary to develop transformative solutions using new technologies. The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element of the Human Research Program (HRP) pushes the boundary of space medical systems to advance the care of astronauts on future exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit by identifying and testing next-generation medical care and crew health maintenance technologies. The Clinical Decision Support (CDS) project addresses the gap Medical-701 within the Inflight Medical Conditions risk: Enhance medical capabilities within an exploration medical system. For long-duration, deep space missions, computational and data resources will play an important role in maintaining crew health, wellness and performance where the crew will need to be more self-reliant. The aim of the CDS project is to develop and provide recommended requirements for an in-vehicle CDSS that acts as an assistant for delivering optimal health and performance and medical care during exploration missions. The CDSS is envisioned as a software-based tool that will augment a crewmembers’ knowledge, skills and abilities to assist in decision-making and crew health and performance (CHP) management thus increasing CHP systems capabilities. The human interface will be context aware and lessen the cognitive load to assimilate and use information as well as combine large disparate data sets in such a manner that provides the crew with actionable insight to decisions related to crew medical, health and performance management. Crew autonomy will be provided through a CDS that presents knowledge and data in a context aware manner to augment a crew members’ knowledge, skills and abilities during the process of observation, orientation, decisions and action. The CDS project addresses the need for crew members to operate independently during long duration space exploration missions that require medical Levels of Care (LoC) V, the highest level specified by NASA-STD-3001 and described in more detail by the ExMC interpretation of LoC document (NASA/TM-2017-219290), where significant changes to in-flight and habitat medical care necessitate increasing crew autonomy in decision making and task performance. The CDS project will develop and test a series of iterative and increasingly more complex system prototypes. These annual demonstrations of the data system integration with the crew health and performance domain will inform exploration medical system requirements for an on-board Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) through a series of use cases that guide CDS prototype functionality. CDS concepts are based on ExMC Concept of Operations documents (presented separately) and will highlight architecture extensibility to other more complex analyses and tests using core crew health and performance integrated data management, processing and visualization capabilities. This approach also establishes how externally developed analyses and approaches could be added to expand a clinical decision support system and thus highlight how a comprehensive system can be commercially and/or globally developed. The CDS project will build upon the concept of an integrated data management approach based on the Medical Data Architecture (MDA) project to more fully address challenges associated with in-flight and habitat medical, health and performance care due to constraints on mass, volume, power, crew time and medical evacuation capabilities required for medical LoC V. These requirements will be derived through systems engineering approaches and software prototype developments over the course of the multi-year CDS project to address crew health and performance decision-making and task performance, often autonomously executed by the crew, in a manner that is consistent with the appropriate medical level of care for the mission. This presentation will provide an overview of the vision for the CDS project and highlight the initial accomplishments in project planning, implementation and requirements identification in fiscal year 2020.

clinical decision support system↗

Sustainable lead management in halide perovskite solar cells

Despite the rapid development of perovskite solar cells (PSCs) toward commercialization, the toxic lead (Pb) ions in PSCs pose a potential threat to the environment, health and safety. Managing Pb via recycling represents a promising approach to mitigating its toxicity. However, managing Pb from commonly used organic solvents has been challenging due to the lack of suitable Pb adsorbents. Here, we report a new adsorbent for both separation and recovery of Pb from PSC pollutants. The synthesized iron-incorporated hydroxyapatite possesses a strongly negatively charged surface that improves electrostatic interaction through surface-charge delocalization, thus leading to enhanced Pb adsorption. Finally, we demonstrate the feasibility of a complete Pb management process, including the purification of Pb-containing non-aqueous solvents below 15 parts per 10 9 , a level compliant with the standards of the US Environmental Protection Agency, as well as recycling of 99.97% of Pb ions by forming lead iodide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Adaptive Recovery Model: Designing Systems for Testing Tracing and Vaccination to Support COVID-19 Recovery Planning.

This report documents a new approach to designing disease control policies that allocate scarce testing, contact tracing, and vaccination resources to better control community transmission of COVID19 or similar diseases. The Adaptive Recovery Model (ARM) combines a deterministic compartmental disease model with a stochastic network disease propagation model to enable us to simulate COVID-19 community spread through the lens of two complementary modeling motifs. ARM contact networks are derived from cell-phone location data that have been anonymized and interpreted as individual arrivals to specic public locations. Modeling disease spread over these networks allows us to identify locations within communities conducive to rapid disease spread. ARM applies this model- and data-derived abstractions of community transmission to evaluate the effectiveness of disease control measures including targeted social distancing, contact tracing, testing and vaccination. The architecture of ARM provides a unique capacity to help decision makers understand how best to deploy scarce testing, tracing and vaccination resources to minimize disease-spread potential in a community. This document details the novel mathematical formulations underlying ARM, presents a dynamical stability analysis of the deterministic model components, a sensitivity analysis of control parameters and network structure, and summarizes a process for deriving contact networks from cell-phone location data. An example use case steps through applying ARM to evaluate three targeted social distancing policies using Bernalillo County, New Mexico as an exemplar test locale. This step-by-step analysis demonstrates how ARM can be used to measure the relative performance of competing public health policies. Initial scenario tests of ARM shows that ARMs design focus on resource utilization rather than simple incidence prediction can provide decision makers with additional quantitative guidance for managing ongoing public health emergencies and planning future responses.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Risk Tolerance and Safety Culture: Minimizing the Risk of Catastrophe by Bringing the Lessons of Space Home

The Johnson Space Center has pursued integrating risk management practices and techniques throughout a large organization with an extraordinarily diverse mission. Past mission and institutional failures have been used to inform NASA's safety culture and a implement a uniform risk management environment. Basics from the loss prevention industry have influenced NASA's approach to sustaining its unique, yet aging, infrastructure. Lessons learned at NASA can augment and enhance occupational safety, health and risk management capabilities within hazardous industries. By focusing on risk informed decision-making, building a pervasive safety culture, and accommodating human factors, NASA's safety capabilities have been specifically developed to minimize the risk of loss of life and loss of mission.

Loyd, David↗

Risk Tolerance and Safety Culture: Minimizing the Risk of Catastrophe by Bringing the Lessons of Space Home

The Johnson Space Center has pursued integrating safety culture and risk management practices and techniques throughout a large organization with an extraordinarily diverse mission. Past mission and institutional failures have been used to inform NASA's safety culture and a implement a uniform risk management environment. Basics from the loss prevention industry have influenced NASA's approach to sustaining its unique, yet aging, infrastructure. Lessons learned at NASA can augment and enhance occupational safety, health and risk management capabilities within hazardous industries. By focusing on risk informed decision-making, building a pervasive safety culture, and accommodating human factors, NASA's safety capabilities have been specifically developed to minimize the risk of loss of life and loss of mission.

Mishap↗

The relationship between stress, anxiety and eating behavior among Chinese students: a cross-sectional study

Background The expansion of higher education and the growing number of college students have led to increased awareness of mental health issues such as stress, anxiety, and eating disorders. In China, the educational system and cultural expectations contribute to the stress experienced by college students. This study aims to clarify the role of anxiety as a mediator in the relationship between stress and eating behaviors among Chinese college students. Methods This study utilized data from the 2021 Psychology and Behavior Investigation of Chinese Residents, which included 1,672 college students under the age of 25. The analysis methods comprised descriptive statistics, t -tests, Pearson correlation analyses, and mediation effect analysis. Results The findings indicate that Chinese college students experience high levels of stress, with long-term stress slightly exceeding short-term stress. Both types of stress were positively correlated with increased anxiety and the adoption of unhealthy eating behaviors. Anxiety was identified as a significant mediator, accounting for 28.3% of the relationship between long-term stress and eating behavior (95% CI = 0.058–0.183). The mediation effect of short-term stress on eating behavior through anxiety was also significant, explaining 61.4% of the total effect (95% CI = 0.185–0.327). Conclusion The study underscores the importance of stress management and mental health services for college students. It recommends a comprehensive approach to reducing external pressures, managing anxiety, and promoting healthy eating behaviors among college students. Suggestions include expanding employment opportunities, providing career guidance, enhancing campus and societal support for holistic development, strengthening mental health services, leveraging artificial intelligence technologies, educating on healthy lifestyles, and implementing targeted health promotion programs.

Chai, Yulin↗

The overlooked interaction of emerging contaminants and microbial communities: a threat to ecosystems and public health

Abstract Context and aims Emerging contaminants (ECs) and microbial communities should not be viewed in isolation, but through the One Health perspective. Both ECs and microorganisms lie at the core of this interconnected framework, as they directly influence the health of humans, animals, and the environment. The interactions between ECs and microbial communities can have profound implications for public health, affecting all three domains. However, these ECs-microorganism interactions remain underexplored, potentially leaving significant public health and ecological risks unrecognized. Therefore, this article seeks to alert the scientific community to the overlooked interactions between ECs and microbial communities, emphasizing the pivotal role these interactions may play in the management of ‘One Health.’ Results The most extensively studied interaction between ECs and microbial communities is biodegradation. However, other more complex and concerning interactions demand attention, such as the impact of ECs on microbial ecology (disruptions in ecosystem balance affecting nutrient and energy cycles) and the rise and spread of antimicrobial resistance (a growing global health crisis). Although these ECs-microbial interactions had not been extensively studied, there are scientific evidence that ECs impact on microbial communities may be concerning for public health and ecosystem balance. Conclusions So, this perspective summarizes the impact of ECs through a One Health lens and underscores the urgent need to understand their influence on microbial communities, while highlighting the key challenges researchers must overcome. Tackling these challenges is vital to mitigate potential long-term consequences for both ecosystems and public health.

Gomes, Inês B. (ORCID:0000000207313662)↗

Model-based diagnostics for Space Station Freedom

An innovative approach to fault management was recently demonstrated for the NASA LeRC Space Station Freedom (SSF) power system testbed. This project capitalized on research in model-based reasoning, which uses knowledge of a system's behavior to monitor its health. The fault management system (FMS) can isolate failures online, or in a post analysis mode, and requires no knowledge of failure symptoms to perform its diagnostics. An in-house tool called MARPLE was used to develop and run the FMS. MARPLE's capabilities are similar to those available from commercial expert system shells, although MARPLE is designed to build model-based as opposed to rule-based systems. These capabilities include functions for capturing behavioral knowledge, a reasoning engine that implements a model-based technique known as constraint suspension, and a tool for quickly generating new user interfaces. The prototype produced by applying MARPLE to SSF not only demonstrated that model-based reasoning is a valuable diagnostic approach, but it also suggested several new applications of MARPLE, including an integration and testing aid, and a complement to state estimation.

Fesq, Lorraine M.↗

Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for engineering design and health prognostics: A tutorial

On top of machine learning (ML) models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and reliability improvement of ML models empowered by UQ has the potential to significantly facilitate the broad adoption of ML solutions in high-stakes decision settings, such as healthcare, manufacturing, and aviation, to name a few. In this tutorial, we aim to provide a holistic lens on emerging UQ methods for ML models with a particular focus on neural networks and the applications of these UQ methods in tackling engineering design as well as prognostics and health management problems. Towards this goal, we start with a comprehensive classification of uncertainty types, sources, and causes pertaining to UQ of ML models. Next, we provide a tutorial-style description of several state-of-the-art UQ methods: Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural network, neural network ensemble, and deterministic UQ methods focusing on spectral-normalized neural Gaussian process. Established upon the mathematical formulations, we subsequently examine the soundness of these UQ methods quantitatively and qualitatively (by a toy regression example) to examine their strengths and shortcomings from different dimensions. Then, we review quantitative metrics commonly used to assess the quality of predictive uncertainty in classification and regression problems. Afterward, we discuss the increasingly important role of UQ of ML models in solving challenging problems in engineering design and health prognostics. In conclusion, two case studies with source codes available on GitHub are used to demonstrate these UQ methods and compare their performance in the life prediction of lithium-ion batteries at the early stage (case study 1) and the remaining useful life prediction of turbofan engines (case study 2).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Human Health Trade-Offs of Organic Waste Management Strategies

Waste-to-energy systems can play an important role in diverting organic waste from landfills. However, real-world waste management can differ from idealized practices, and emissions driven by microbial communities and complex chemical processes are poorly understood. This study presents a comprehensive life-cycle assessment, using reported and measured data, of competing management alternatives for organic municipal solid waste including landfilling, composting, dry anaerobic digestion (AD) for the production of renewable natural gas (RNG), and dry AD with electricity generation. Landfilling is the most greenhouse gas (GHG)-intensive option, emitting nearly 400 kg CO 2e per tonne of organic waste. Composting raw organics resulted in the lowest GHG emissions, at -41 kg CO 2e per tonne of waste, while upgrading biogas to RNG after dry AD resulted in -36 to -2 kg CO 2e per tonne. Monetizing the results based on social costs of carbon and other air pollutant emissions highlights the importance of ground-level NH3 emissions from composting nitrogen-rich organic waste or post-AD solids. However, better characterization of material-specific NH 3 emissions from landfills and land-application of digestate is essential to fully understand the trade-offs between alternatives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗