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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Considerations for Optimizing the Photometric Classification of Supernovae from the Rubin Observatory

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory will increase the number of observed supernovae (SNe) by an order of magnitude; however, it is impossible to spectroscopically confirm the class for all SNe discovered. Thus, photometric classification is crucial, but its accuracy depends on the not-yet-finalized observing strategy of Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We quantitatively analyze the impact of the LSST observing strategy on SNe classification using simulated multiband light curves from the Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-Series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC). First, we augment the simulated training set to be representative of the photometric redshift distribution per SNe class, the cadence of observations, and the flux uncertainty distribution of the test set. Then we build a classifier using the photometric transient classification library snmachine, based on wavelet features obtained from Gaussian process fits, yielding a similar performance to the winning PLAsTiCC entry. We study the classification performance for SNe with different properties within a single simulated observing strategy. We find that season length is important, with light curves of 150 days yielding the highest performance. Cadence also has an important impact on SNe classification; events with median inter-night gap <3.5 days yield higher classification performance. Interestingly, we find that large gaps (>10 days) in light-curve observations do not impact performance if sufficient observations are available on either side, due to the effectiveness of the Gaussian process interpolation. This analysis is the first exploration of the impact of observing strategy on photometric SN classification with LSST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis into Asymptotic Convergence to Full Nonlinear Solutions and Exploration of the Implication of Numerical Operator Mutation of Differential Systems

A robust, sufficiently accurate and practical hydrodynamic simulation toolset is required as a key component of the modeling and simulation of air-gap electrostatic discharge events. This work was performed to complement these ongoing efforts. In particular, hydrodynamic simulations must be vetted to ensure they are robust and sufficiently accurate over relevant characteristic scales. Verification models were generated in order to cultivate the technical knowledge and expertise needed to properly create, implement and execute numerical simulations. Furthermore, this effort was utilized extensively to educate students on the mathematical and numerical principles underlying hydrodynamic simulations. This education opportunity, provided in a holistic and rigorous manner, has greatly benefited developing scientists and engineers with the necessary understandings and toolsets required to excel at accomplishing the task at hand, and, more generally, it has enabled them to generate key programmatic deliverables. This report articulates several subtilties; specifically, how perturbations, nonlinear behavior, and dissipative mechanisms influence numerical stability, how to properly structure mathematical and numerical solutions, and how to properly generate error estimation/assignment. A more rigorous discussion of the consequences of such topics can be found in the body of this report in Chapters 2 and 3 with qualitative findings discussed in Chapter 4.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Community Dynamics Drive Calcium Carbonate Production in an Enriched Consortium of Soil Microbes

Recently, there has been a focus on using soil microbes as a means to store carbon in the soil in the form of calcium carbonate, outcomes of which include soil stabilization and biocementation. The molecular processes involved in microbially induced calcium carbonate formation are known, but there is still a significant knowledge gap regarding how community interactions, emergent processes that are distinct from the roles of individual members, may drive the formation of carbonate. To answer these questions, we describe the development and application of a consortium of soil microbes consisting of one species each of the Rhodococcus , Microbacterium , and Curtobacterium genera and two species from the Bacillus genus. We term these five species cultivated together carbon storing consortium A (CSC-A). Growth assays show that only a subset of CSC-A members produces CaCO 3 with Rhodococcus producing the most CaCO 3 but the complete CSC-A produces significantly higher amounts of CaCO 3 compared to the sum total carbonate produced by all member species. The development of CSC-A shows that CaCO 3 production may be as much a community process as it is the contribution of individual species, requiring us to move beyond single species analysis to fully understand carbonate formation by microbial communities in nature. CSC-A will allow the scientific community to ask and answer key questions about the molecular interactions surrounding inorganic carbon formation in soil, an important knowledge gap that must be filled if we wish to stabilize soils and harness microbial processes for materials production.

calcium carbonate↗
DOE OSTI2023

Why is the winner the best?

International benchmarking competitions have become fundamental for the comparative performance assessment of image analysis methods. However, little attention has been given to investigating what can be learnt from these competitions. Do they really generate scientific progress? What are common and successful participation strategies? What makes a solution superior to a competing method? To address this gap in the literature, we performed a multi- center study with all 80 competitions that were conducted in the scope of IEEE ISBI 2021 and MICCAI 2021. Statistical analyses performed based on comprehensive descriptions of the submitted algorithms linked to their rank as well as the underlying participation strategies revealed common characteristics of winning solutions. These typically include the use of multi-task learning (63%) and/or multi-stage pipelines (61%), and a focus on augmentation (100%), im- age preprocessing (97%), data curation (79%), and post- processing (66%). The “typical” lead of a winning team is a computer scientist with a doctoral degree, five years of experience in biomedical image analysis, and four years of experience in deep learning. Two core general development strategies stood out for highly-ranked teams: the reflection of the metrics in the method design and the focus on analyzing and handling failure cases. According to the organizers, 43% of the winning algorithms exceeded the state of the art but only 11% completely solved the respective domain problem. The insights of our study could help researchers (1) improve algorithm development strategies when approaching new problems, and (2) focus on open research questions revealed by this work.

Eisenmann, Matthias↗
DOE OSTI2021

SAM Co-Development to Support Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor Design and Licensing (CRADA 2018-18177 Final Report)

This project aims to raise the SAM code's technical and commercial maturity level to enable the Kairos Power ("Kairos") to use SAM to support its KP-FHR design analysis and licensing application. Argonne National Laboratory ("Argonne") has actively developed and maintained SAM, a modern system-level analysis tool for advanced nonlight water reactors safety analysis. Kairos is currently actively pursuing development of an FHR design and associated technology, and consequently requires a pedigreed safety analysis tool. The purpose of this project is to increase the maturity of the SAM code for the modeling and simulation of the KP-FHR design, thus enabling its use in safety analyses that support licensing application. Argonne will primarily be responsible for software design, development, and testing; while Kairos will be responsible for software requirements, assessment of software capabilities, needs, gaps, and priorities, and development of proprietary models. The research and development activities for the joint SAM development project include: a series of identification and prioritization studies on design characteristics, event sequences, relevant phenomena, and software capabilities; SAM capability enhancements for specific KP-FHR systems and components; performing code verification and validations; integrating uncertainty quantification (UQ), model calibration, and sensitivity analysis (SA) techniques in safety analyses; and raising the software quality rigor level for commercial-grade applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fatty Acid and Alcohol Metabolism in Pseudomonas putida: Functional Analysis Using Random Barcode Transposon Sequencing.

With its ability to catabolize a wide variety of carbon sources and a growing engineering toolkit, Pseudomonas putida KT2440 is emerging as an important chassis organism for metabolic engineering. Despite advances in our understanding of the organism, many gaps remain in our knowledge of the genetic basis of its metabolic capabilities. The gaps are particularly noticeable in our understanding of both fatty acid and alcohol catabolism, where many paralogs putatively coding for similar enzymes coexist, making biochemical assignment via sequence homology difficult. To rapidly assign function to the enzymes responsible for these metabolisms, we leveraged random barcode transposon sequencing (RB-Tn-Seq). Global fitness analyses of transposon libraries grown on 13 fatty acids and 10 alcohols produced strong phenotypes for hundreds of genes. Fitness data from mutant pools grown on fatty acids of varying chain lengths indicated specific enzyme substrate preferences and enabled us to hypothesize that DUF1302/DUF1329 family proteins potentially function as esterases. From the data, we also postulate catabolic routes for the two biogasoline molecules isoprenol and isopentanol, which are catabolized via leucine metabolism after initial oxidation and activation with coenzyme A (CoA). Because fatty acids and alcohols may serve as both feedstocks and final products of metabolic-engineering efforts, the fitness data presented here will help guide future genomic modifications toward higher titers, rates, and yields. IMPORTANCE To engineer novel metabolic pathways into P. putida , a comprehensive understanding of the genetic basis of its versatile metabolism is essential. Here, we provide functional evidence for the putative roles of hundreds of genes involved in the fatty acid and alcohol metabolism of the bacterium. These data provide a framework facilitating precise genetic changes to prevent product degradation and to channel the flux of specific pathway intermediates as desired.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced convection for higher module and system efficiency (Final Technical Report)

The goal of this work is to develop new solar photovoltaic (PV) modules and solar system-scale designs that promote an increase of the convective heat transfer coefficient of at least 40%, reducing the operating temperature of the solar PV panels, and leading to a boost on the annual energy yield by at least 5%. By achieving this goal, we further foresee decreasing solar panel degradation by +0.3%/year, reducing the LCOE by 2.9-4.5¢/kWh. Currently, this question and/or approach is not considered though it is a relevant factor in performance/efficiency. The technology proposed will be at a mature stage by the end of the project and could be aligned to be proven on a full-field test. PV users, installers and manufacturers will be interested in the technology due to the aforementioned benefits. The work was conducted through a suite of wind tunnel experiments, numerical simulations and field experiments. These were then evaluated through a correlation encompassing the entire data set and implementing findings into NREL SAM. The work resulted in eight peer reviewed publications with three others in preparation. The key results of the project are 1.) Showing the capability of increasing the solar farm power production by increasing the heat transfer coefficient; 2.) Providing strategies for achieving this through large scale arrangement manipulation (heights, spacings, angles), flow deflectors and vortex generators; 3.) Demonstrating scalability of results by comparing numerical simulations, wind tunnel experiments and field experiments; 4.) Providing a correlation to be able to capture the various arrangements while exploiting the heat transfer coefficient; and 5.) Proving the feasibility of such strategies and their capacity through a comprehensive techno-economic analysis. For the heat transfer coefficients, gains of 40% were attained and increases in power in the excess of 5% were observed. For heat mitigation strategies, consideration at the PV array scale were inter-panel spacing, panel height and panel angles while at the module level, wind breaks such as solid walls and selected gaps were evaluated as well as vortex generators on the panel. All proposed strategies saw an increase in heat transfer coefficient. For scalability, results were compared against field experiments and a correlation for the heat transfer quantity was attained leading to a parametric understanding of the variations and impact in the heat transfer coefficient independent of tools implemented (wind tunnel/numerical simulations). The strategies were also further assessed by a technoeconomic analysis finding improvements based on LCOE with respect to location (several states with varies atmospheric conditions/geographic locations) yielded different results. Improvements on this end were also observed especially towards the colder climates and when considering bi-facial modules. The quantitative demonstrations of such conclusions are provided in the main portion of this document with complementary results and their narration. Milestones and go/no-go points were successfully met in the project.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effect of Anode Porosity and Temperature on the Performance and Lithium Plating During Fast-Charging of Lithium-Ion Cells

Twenty-four single-layer approximate to 32 mAh pouch cells are tested to determine the effect of electrode porosity on lithium plating. Twelve cells contain a graphite electrode that is 26% porous, and 47% for the other twelve. The cells are cycled using a 6-C charge and a C/2 discharge protocol at temperatures in the range of 20-50 degrees C. A macro-homogeneous electrochemical model and microstructure analysis tool set are used to help interpret experimental observations for the effect of anode porosity and ambient temperature on fast-charging performance. Additionally, comparison between the two also highlights gaps in current theoretical understanding that need to be addressed. In post-test examination, lithium plating is seen in all cells, regardless of porosity. Elevated temperature is shown to reduce the amount of lithium plating and improve initial fast-charge capacity, but also changes the rate of other, less well-understood degradation mechanisms. Apparent kinetic rate laws, At + Bt 1/2 , where A and B are constants, can be fit to most of the capacity loss and resistance increase data. The relative magnitudes of A and B change with temperature and porosity. The capacity loss data at 50 degrees C from the high-porosity cells are fit by a logistics rate law.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

The effect of micro-encapsulation on thermal characteristics of metallic phase change materials

Micro-encapsulated phase change material with metallic core can work under high temperature for energy storage purpose, making it an appealing candidate for renewable energy technologies, such as thermal energy storage for concentrating solar power plants. Here, the objective of this work is to study the impact of encapsulation on the thermal performance of the micro-encapsulated phase change materials under various operating conditions. To evaluate the thermal performance of the micro-encapsulated phase change material particles, the governing equation of transient heat conduction with phase change in spheres with composite walls is solved numerically. The impact of encapsulation shell on the convective heat transfer rate, total energy absorption, latent heat ratio, energy density, and duration of phase change is presented and analyzed under different operating conditions. Three different core materials including tin, aluminum and copper with distinct Stephan numbers are investigated. In addition to the encapsulation shell effect, this model can be used to study micro-encapsulated phase change materials with different material compositions, core to shell ratios, and it can be used to analyze the impact of air gaps in between materials. Understanding the thermal performance at particle level is essential, and the results of this study could potentially be used as input for thermal energy storage system level analysis, such as the charging and discharging processes.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Magnetic flux noise in superconducting qubits and the gap states continuum

In the present study we investigate the selected local aspects of the metal-induced gap states (MIGSs) at the disordered metal–insulator interface, that were previously proposed to produce magnetic moments responsible for the magnetic flux noise in some of the superconducting qubit modalities. Our analysis attempts to supplement the available studies and provide new theoretical contribution toward their validation. In particular, we explicitly discuss the behavior of the MIGSs in the momentum space as a function of the onsite energy deviation, that mimics random potential disorder at the interface in the local approximation. It is found, that when the difference between the characteristic electronic potentials in the insulator increases, the corresponding MIGSs become more localized. This effect is associated with the increasing degree of the potential disorder that was earlier observed to produce highly localized MIGSs in the superconducting qubits. At the same time, the presented findings show that the disorder-induced localization of the MIGSs can be related directly to the decay characteristics of these states as well as to the bulk electronic properties of the insulator. As a result, our study reinforces plausibility of the previous corresponding investigations on the origin of the flux noise, but also allows to draw future directions toward their better verification.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Neutron scattering study of magnetic anisotropy in the tetragonal antiferromagnet Bi 2 CuO 4

In this work, we present a comprehensive study of magnon excitations in the tetragonal easy-plane antiferromagnet Bi 2 CuO 4 using inelastic neutron scattering and spin-wave analyses. The nature of low-energy magnons, and hence the anisotropy in this material, has been controversial. We show unambiguously that the low-energy magnon spectrum consists of a gapped and a gapless mode, which we attribute to out-of-plane and in-plane spin fluctuations, respectively. We modeled the observed magnon spectrum using linear spin-wave analysis of a minimal anisotropic spin model motivated by the lattice symmetry. By studying the magnetic field dependence of the (1,0,0) Bragg peak intensity and the in-plane magnon intensity, we observed a spin-flop transition in the ab plane at ~0.4 T, which directly indicates the existence of a small in-plane anisotropy that is classically forbidden. It is only by taking into account magnon zero-point fluctuations beyond the linear spin-wave approximation that we could explain this in-plane anisotropy and its magnitude, the latter of which is deduced from the critical field of the spin-flop transition. The microscopic origins of the observed anisotropic interactions are also discussed. We found that our data are inconsistent with a large Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction, which suggests a potential departure of Bi 2 CuO 4 from the conventional theories of magnetic anisotropy for other cuprates.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Bootstrap Approach to Quantifying Reliabilities and Uncertainties of Complex Systems

While much work has been done in analyzing margins and uncertainties at the component level, a gap exists in NNSA methodology relating component level reliabilities and uncertainties to system level reliability and uncertainty. This paper shows how component level reliability data can be combined via a bootstrap analysis to estimate system level reliabilities and uncertainties. The performance of the bootstrap for this problem is validated through simulation studies. This paper extends the original work of Crowder by including sensitivity analyses related to changes in samples sizes and component failure probabilities. The use of the bootstrap as a decision-making tool is thus developed by quantifying the effect of such changes on system reliability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors in Africa

This report assesses the feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors, including large-scale plants, advanced small modular reactors (SMRs), and microreactors, in African countries. Case studies focus on South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria, examining nuclear energy’s role in Africa’s rapidly evolving energy landscape, marked by fast-growing demand, significant electricity access gaps, increasing renewable penetration, and strong policy commitments to industrialization and energy security. Several U.S. reactor technologies and designs are considered based on their development status and readiness for deployment. The analysis finds that nuclear power can provide reliable, clean baseload and flexible generation, as well as high-temperature process heat for desalination, hydrogen production, and industrial applications. However, suitability is highly country-specific, depending on grid size and stability, transmission capacity, cooling water availability, regulatory readiness, and fuel supply chains. Near-term deployment opportunities are strongest for light-water reactors (such as NuScale, BWRX-300, AP300, and SMR-300) that use low-enriched uranium and build on proven technology. More advanced concepts, including gas-cooled, sodium-cooled, molten-salt cooled reactors, and microreactors, will likely be relevant for African deployment in the 2030s or later, contingent on demonstration projects, high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel availability, and mature international licensing frameworks. Economic analysis shows that SMRs are capital-intensive, with projected overnight costs for 300 MWe units in 2025 ranging from approximately 1.4 to 2.6 billion USD per module. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is highly sensitive to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Given typically higher financing costs and utility balance-sheet weaknesses in many African countries, bankable project structures will require sovereign guarantees, robust offtake arrangements, and layered financing from export credit agencies, development finance institutions, and vendor nations. Comparisons with recent large nuclear projects in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt underscore the central role of state-backed loans, long tenors, and concessional terms. Country case studies illustrate a spectrum of readiness and opportunity. South Africa operates two 920 MWe pressurized light water reactors (totaling 1,840 MWe) at Koeberg and has the most mature regulatory and industrial base, positioning it as a prime candidate for both large reactors and SMRs to replace coal, support desalination, and anchor industrial hubs. Egypt is constructing four VVER-1200 units at El Dabaa with strong state leadership and could later complement this fleet with SMRs for coastal and industrial applications. Kenya and Ghana are advancing through IAEA Milestones with growing institutional capacity and clear interest in SMRs that match their smaller grids and industrialization plans. Nigeria has the largest demand potential but faces acute constraints in grid reliability, project bankability, and regulatory capacity; targeted deployments of large reactors and SMRs near coastal or industrial sites could have high impact if accompanied by major grid upgrades and institutional reforms. The report identifies cross-cutting challenges such as financing, political continuity, public acceptance, nonproliferation and security, waste and back-end management, regulatory capacity, grid adequacy, and long deployment timelines for first-of-a-kind designs, and ANL/NSE-26/3 ii proposes broad directions for resolution. These include stronger multifaceted financing for nuclear, long-term national energy strategies that transcend electoral cycles, proactive stakeholder engagement, strengthened regional and national regulators, and systematic workforce development through centers of excellence and expanded training. The United States should develop partnerships with African countries and offer end-to-end nuclear package similar to those used effectively by competitors: coordinated project development, state-backed financing, long-term fuel services, and durable in-country support through regional offices and sustained workforce/regulatory training. With timely planning, sustained political commitment, and appropriate financing and institutional support, nuclear energy, both large reactors and advanced SMRs, can become a meaningful, though not dominant, pillar of Africa’s future power mix, enhancing energy security, enabling industrial growth, and supporting climate goals.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Pattern-Recognition-Based Ensemble Data Imputation Framework for Sensors from Building Energy Systems

Building operation data are important for monitoring, analysis, modeling, and control of building energy systems. However, missing data is one of the major data quality issues, making data imputation techniques become increasingly important. There are two key research gaps for missing sensor data imputation in buildings: the lack of customized and automated imputation methodology, and the difficulty of the validation of data imputation methods. In this paper, a framework is developed to address these two gaps. First, a validation data generation module is developed based on pattern recognition to create a validation dataset to quantify the performance of data imputation methods. Second, a pool of data imputation methods is tested under the validation dataset to find an optimal single imputation method for each sensor, which is termed as an ensemble method. The method can reflect the specific mechanism and randomness of missing data from each sensor. The effectiveness of the framework is demonstrated by 18 sensors from a real campus building. The overall accuracy of data imputation for those sensors improves by 18.2% on average compared with the best single data imputation method.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Exploring Renewable Energy Opportunities in Select Southeast Asian Countries: A Geospatial Analysis of the Levelized Cost of Energy of Utility-Scale Wind and Solar Photovoltaics

The costs of renewable energy-based electricity generation have fallen precipitously in recent years to levels that are increasingly competitive with traditional generation such as fossil fuel-based generation. As these costs become increasingly competitive, private developers, policymakers, and energy system planners are searching for opportunities to harness high-quality renewable energy resources. Developing economies are setting ambitious targets and exploring how cost-effective, grid-connected renewable energy options can help power economic growth and meet growing electricity demands. This includes the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that are determined to reach a target of 23% of renewable energy in the region's total primary energy supply by 2025. A critical gap to identifying opportunities and scaling up renewable energy is the lack of quality data and analyses to support decisions on the investment and deployment of renewables - including wind and solar photovoltaics (PV). This work supports decision making by providing high-quality data and spatial analysis of the cost of utility-scale wind and solar PV generation in select countries of Southeast Asia - specifically, the ASEAN member states. Generation costs are expressed as the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) - a commonly used metric that represents the net present value of the unit cost of electricity during the lifetime of a particular electricity generation technology. This is the first spatial estimate of LCOE for these technologies within the ASEAN member states - providing insights into the roles that renewable energy resource quality and other factors may play in generation costs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

US FDA Postmarketing Requirements and Commitments: A Systematic Assessment of Clinical Pharmacology Studies and Their Impact on US FDA Prescribing Information

Abstract Many of the conditions for the safe and effective use of new molecular entities (NMEs) are understood at the time of initial drug approval. However, some remaining knowledge gaps can be addressed after drug approval through postmarketing requirements (PMRs) or commitments (PMCs) established by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Our objective was to conduct an assessment of clinical pharmacology–related PMRs and PMCs established at the time of approval and evaluate the impact of fulfilled PMRs and PMCs on prescription information (PI). This analysis included clinical pharmacology–related PMRs and PMCs established for NMEs approved between 2009 and 2020. Of the 1171 PMRs and PMCs, over one‐third were clinical pharmacology–related. Of these, 46% were to evaluate drug interactions, 16% were to evaluate drug dosing in patients with hepatic impairment, and 10% were related to dose. The majority (57%) of PMRs and PMCs were fulfilled at the time of analysis, with a median time to fulfillment of approximately 2.3 years. The majority (94%) of the fulfilled PMRs and PMCs, either with or without a PI revision, resulted in new or modified instructions for use or supported existing instructions for use. This is the first time that clinical pharmacology–related PMRs and PMCs have been catalogued and analyzed to understand their impact on PI. An understanding of the knowledge gaps that exist at the time of drug approval could inform the most effective and efficient methods for evidence generation prior to and after new drug approval.

Pharmacology & Pharmacy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Prestressed Concrete Poles Subjected to Wind, Surges, and Waves

Prestressed concrete (PC) poles are becoming popular choices to support coastal power transmission systems. However, the existing literature does not offer a detailed analysis of the effectiveness of PC poles in terms of long-term vulnerabilities and the direct and indirect costs. This is due to (1) lack of fragility models for PC poles and (2) lack of probabilistic wind, storm surge, and wave models in coastal settings. In this study, we address these gaps through a series of Monte Carlo simulations to estimate fragility of PC poles as a function of age and hazard (wind, surges, and waves) intensity, and the development of a probabilistic hazard model based on 10,000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone data. The probabilistic hazard model is used in conjunction with high-resolution hydrodynamic models to generate realizations of coastal wind, storm surges, and waves for the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. A comprehensive life cycle cost analysis for a service life of 70 years considering direct and indirect losses is conducted to compare the performance of a transmission line located in Pascagoula, Mississippi, when wood poles are replaced by PC poles. Results showed that aging has a minor effect on the reliability of PC poles, highlighting the advantages of replacing wood poles with PC poles, especially in coastal areas. In addition, PC poles are significantly more cost-effective compared with wood poles over their life cycle, leading to an estimated saving of $11.55 million (68.17% reduction). The results of this study provide key insight to inform decision-making processes to keep the coastal power grids resilient and cost-effective against future storm hazards.

natural disasters↗