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DOE OSTI2016

Potential Impacts of Accelerated Climate Change

This research project is part of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research plan in support of developing a risk-informed licensing framework for flood hazards and design standards at proposed new facilities and significance determination tools for evaluating potential deficiencies related to flood protection at operating facilities. The PFHA plan aims to build upon recent advances in deterministic, probabilistic, and statistical modeling of extreme precipitation events to develop regulatory tools and guidance for NRC staff with regard to PFHA for nuclear facilities. The tools and guidance developed under the PFHA plan will support and enhance NRC’s capacity to perform thorough and efficient reviews of license applications and license amendment requests. They will also support risk-informed significance determination of inspection findings, unusual events, and other oversight activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Implementation Plan for Qualification of Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor Technology Information

This document identifies and discusses implementation elements that can be used to facilitate consistent and systematic evaluation processes relating to quality attributes of technical information (with focus on SFR technology) that will be used to support licensing of advanced reactor designs. Information may include, but is not limited to, design documents for SFRs, research-and-development (R&D) data and associated documents, test plans and associated protocols, operations and test data, international research data, technical reports, and information associated with past U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) reviews of SFR designs. The approach for determining acceptability of test data, analysis, and/or other technical information is based on guidance provided in INL/EXT-15-35805, “Guidance on Evaluating Historic Technology Information for Use in Advanced Reactor Licensing.” The implementation plan can be adopted into a working procedure at each of the national laboratories performing data qualification, or by applicants seeking future license application for advanced reactor technology.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Guidelines for effective radiation transport for cable SGEMP modeling

This report describes experiences gained in performing radiation transport computations with the SCEPTRE radiation transport code for System Generated ElectroMagnetic Pulse (SGEMP) applications. SCEPTRE is a complex code requiring a fairly sophisticated user to run the code effectively, so this report provides guidance for analysts interested in performing these types of calculations. One challenge in modeling coupled photon/electron transport for SGEMP is to provide a spatial mesh that is sufficiently resolved to accurately model surface charge emission and charge deposition near material interfaces. The method that has been most commonly used to date to compute cable SGEMP typically requires a sub-micron mesh size near material interfaces, which may be difficult for meshing software to provide for complex geometries. We present here an alternative method for computing cable SGEMP that appears to substantially relax this requirement. The report also investigates the effect of refining the energy mesh and increasing the order of the angular approximation to provide some guidance on determining reasonable parameters for the energy/angular approximation needed for x-ray environments. Conclusions for γ-ray environments may be quite different and will be treated in a subsequent report. In the course of the energy-mesh refinement studies, a bug in the cross-section generation software was discovered that may cause underprediction of the result by as much as an order of magnitude for the test problem studied here, when the electron energy group widths are much smaller than those for the photons. Results will be presented and compared using cross sections generated before and after the fix. We also describe adjoint modeling, which provides sensitivity of the total charge drive to the source energy and angle of incidence, which is quite useful for comparing the effect of changing the source environment and for determining most stressing angle of incidence and source energy. This report focusses on cable SGEMP applications, but many of the conclusions will be directly applicable for box Internal ElectroMagnetic Pulse (IEMP) modeling as well.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2016

Status Report on Ex-Vessel Coolability and Water Management

Specific to BWR plants, current accident management guidance calls for flooding the drywell to a level of approximately 1.2 m (4 feet) above the drywell floor once vessel breach has been determined. While this action can help to submerge ex-vessel core debris, it can also result in flooding the wetwell and thereby rendering the wetwell vent path unavailable. An alternate strategy is being developed in the industry guidance for responding to the severe accident capable vent Order, EA-13-109. The alternate strategy being proposed would throttle the flooding rate to achieve a stable wetwell water level while preserving the wetwell vent path. The overall objective of this work is to upgrade existing analytical tools (i.e. MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH - which have been used as part of the DOE-sponsored Fukushima accident analyses) in order to provide flexible, analytically capable, and validated models to support the development of water throttling strategies for BWRs that are aimed at keeping ex-vessel core debris covered with water while preserving the wetwell vent path.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2016

VOLTTRON™: Tech-to-Market Best-Practices Guide for Small- and Medium-Sized Commercial Buildings

VOLTTRON™ is an open-source distributed control and sensing platform developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy. It was developed to be used by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to support transactive controls research and deployment activities. VOLTTRON is designed to be an overarching integration platform that could be used to bring together vendors, users, and developers and enable rapid application development and testing. The platform is designed to support modern control strategies, including the use of agent- and transaction-based controls. It also is designed to support the management of a wide range of applications, including heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning systems; electric vehicles; and distributed-energy and whole-building loads. This report was completed as part of the Building Technologies Office’s Technology-to-Market Initiative for VOLTTRON’s Market Validation and Business Case Development efforts. The report provides technology-to-market guidance and best practices related to VOLTTRON platform deployments and commercialization activities for use by entities serving small- and medium-sized commercial buildings. The report characterizes the platform ecosystem within the small- and medium-sized commercial building market and articulates the value proposition of VOLTTRON for three core participants in this ecosystem: 1) platform owners/adopters, 2) app developers, and 3) end-users. The report also identifies key market drivers and opportunities for open platform deployments in the small- and medium-sized commercial building market. Possible pathways to the market are described—laboratory testing to market adoption to commercialization. We also identify and address various technical and market barriers that could hinder deployment of VOLTTRON. Finally, we provide “best practice” tech-to-market guidance for building energy-related deployment efforts serving small- and medium-sized commercial buildings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Final DOE-ASR Report for the Project “Advancing our Understanding and the Remote Sensing of Ice Clouds”

This project has evolved during its execution, and what follows are the key project findings. This project has arguably provided the first global view of how cirrus cloud (defined as having cloud base temperature T < 235 K) nucleation physics (evaluated through satellite retrievals of ice particle number concentration Ni, effective diameter De and ice water content IWC) evolves with the seasons for a given temperature, latitude zone and surface type (e.g. ocean vs. land), based on a new satellite remote sensing method developed for this project. The retrieval method is unique in that it is very sensitive to the small ice crystals that govern the number concentration Ni, allowing Ni to be retrieved. The method currently samples single-layer cirrus clouds having visible optical depth ranging from about 0.3 to 3.0, using co-located observations from the Infrared Imaging Radiometer (IIR) and from the CALIOP (Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) lidar aboard the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation) polar orbiting satellite, employing IIR channels at 10.6 μm and 12.05 μm. Retrievals of Ni are primarily used to estimate the cirrus cloud formation mechanism; that is, either homo- or heterogeneous ice nucleation (henceforth hom and het). This is possible since, in general, hom produces more than an order of magnitude more ice crystals than does het. Thus the retrievals provide insight on how these mechanisms change with the seasons for a given latitude zone or region, based on the years 2008 and 2013. Using a conservative criterion for hom cirrus, on average, the sampled cirrus clouds formed through hom occur about 43% of the time in the Arctic and 50% of the time in the Antarctic, and during winter at mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, hom cirrus occur 37% of the time. Elsewhere (and during other seasons in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes), this hom cirrus fraction is lower, and it is lowest in the tropics. Thus, the microphysical properties of cirrus clouds in the Polar Regions are much different than they are in the tropics; something unknown prior to this study. Moreover, the frequency of cirrus cloud occurrence in the Polar Regions varies strongly with season, peaking during winter in the Arctic and during spring in the Antarctic. Considering these seasonal changes in microphysics and inferred cloud coverage, this leads us to speculate that the buildup of Arctic cirrus during winter may significantly contribute to tropospheric heating in that region, possibly affecting winter jet-stream dynamics and mid-latitude weather patterns through the thermal-wind balance relationship. This cirrus cloud research provides essential guidance for realistically representing cirrus clouds in climate models; guidance previously unavailable. For example, mid-latitude hom cirrus were widespread during winter over or nearby mountainous terrain, evidently due to mountain-induced waves that produce strong updrafts at cirrus cloud levels. The treatment of turbulent mountain stress and gravity waves will likely need to be improved in climate models in order to adequately represent cirrus clouds outside the tropics. Another goal of this project was to develop a ground-based 94-GHz radar retrieval for winter snowstorms, based on (1) an improved analytical framework describing the interaction of radiation from radar with snowfall and (2) the development of a steady-state snow growth model that predicts the height-evolution of the ice particle size distribution through ice particle growth by vapor diffusion, aggregation and riming (i.e. the growth of snow through collisions with supercooled cloud droplets). Although activities (1) and (2) were completed, there was insufficient time to test and finalize the radar retrieval scheme. However, activity (2) provided a new method for relating ice particle mass “m” and projected area “A” to the ice particle maximum dimension “D”. The ice cloud microphysical processes (which determine ice cloud radiative properties) in climate models are parameterized in terms of these m-D and A-D relationships. By improving these relationships, the ice cloud radiative properties in Community Atmosphere Model version 5, or CAM5 (an atmosphere global climate model, or GCM) were improved. Student funding from the University of Nevada, Reno, was combined with funds from this project to conduct some basic research on the mechanism of the North American monsoon, or NAM. Federal research on the NAM has dwindled since 2006, but atmospheric soundings taken during research vessel cruises in the Gulf of California (GC) during the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) were used to reveal a likely mechanism that explains the relationship between an intrusion of tropical warm water into the GC during late spring-early summer and the onset of relatively heavy NAM rainfall in northwest Mexico and the southwestern United States. These soundings, combined with reanalysis data, satellite sea surface temperatures and satellite measurements of outgoing longwave radiation were used to develop and provide evidence for a planetary-scale NAM mechanism. As far as we know, no other physical explanation has been offered for the spring-summer evolution of the NAM system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Bench Scale Development and Testing of Aerogel Sorbents for CO 2 Capture Final Technical Report

The primary objective of this project was scaling up and evaluating a novel Amine Functionalized Aerogel (AFA) sorbent in a bench scale fluidized bed reactor. The project team (Aspen Aerogels, University of Akron, ADA-ES, and Longtail Consulting) has carried out numerous tests and optimization studies to demonstrate the CO 2 capture performance of the AFA sorbent in all its forms: powder, pellet, and bead. The CO 2 capture target performance of the AFA sorbent (all forms) were set at > 12 wt.% and > 6 wt.% for total and working CO 2 capacity, respectively (@ 40 °C adsorption / 100 – 120 °C desorption). The optimized AFA powders outperformed the performance targets by more than 30%, for the total CO 2 capacity (14 - 20 wt.%), and an average of 10 % more for working CO 2 capacity (6.6 – 7.0 wt.%, and could be as high as 9.6 wt. % when desorbed at 120 °C). The University of Akron developed binder formulations, pellet production methods, and post treatment technology for increased resistance to attrition and flue gas contaminants. In pellet form the AFA total CO 2 capacity was ~ 12 wt.% (over 85% capacity retention of that of the powder), and there was less than 13% degradation in CO 2 capture capacity after 20 cycles in the presence of 40 ppm SO 2 . ADA-ES assessed the performance of the AFA powder, pellet, and bead by analyzing sorption isotherms, water uptake analysis, cycling stability, jet cup attrition and crush tests. At bench scale, the hydrodynamic and heat transfer properties of the AFA sorbent pellet in fluidized bed conditions were evaluated at Particulate Solid Research, Inc. (PSRI). After the process design requirements were completed, by Longtail Consulting LLC, a techno-economic analysis was achieved using guidance from The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) report. This report provides the necessary framework to estimate costs for a temperature swing post combustion CO 2 capture process using a bituminous coal fired, super-critical steam cycle power plant producing 550 MWe net generation with 90% CO 2 capture using a methylethylamine (MEA) solvent. Using the NETL report as guidance, the designed CO 2 capture system was analyzed on a cost basis to determine relative cost estimates between the benchmark MEA system and the AFA sorbent system.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Export Control Requirements for Tritium Processing Design and R&D

This document will address requirements of export control associated with tritium plant design and processes. Los Alamos National Laboratory has been working in the area of tritium plant system design and research and development (R&D) since the early 1970’s at the Tritium Systems Test Assembly (TSTA). This work has continued to the current date with projects associated with the ITER project and other Office of Science Fusion Energy Science (OS-FES) funded programs. ITER is currently the highest funding area for the DOE OS-FES. Although export control issues have been integrated into these projects in the past a general guidance document has not been available for reference in this area. To address concerns with currently funded tritium plant programs and assist future projects for FES, this document will identify the key reference documents and specific sections within related to tritium research. Guidance as to the application of these sections will be discussed with specific detail to publications and work with foreign nationals.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2017

LANL Multiyear Strategy Performance Improvement (MYSPI), Fiscal Years 2018-2022

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) protects the nation and the world using innovative science, technology, and engineering through an integrated approach that harnesses the strength of our people, capabilities, and operations. The Laboratory’s Strategic Plan and Purpose statement provide the framework for scientific excellence and operational excellence now and in the future. Our Strategic Plan and Purpose help position Los Alamos for continuing mission success that ensures the safety, security, and effectiveness of the nation’s deterrent; protects the nation from nuclear and emerging threats through our larger global security missions; provides energy security to the nation; and ensures that the nation’s scientific reputation and capabilities remain robust enough to assure our allies and deter our adversaries. Moreover, we use these principles and guidance to ensure that Los Alamos is successful in attracting, recruiting, and retaining the next generation of excellent talent, while creating an efficient, environmentally responsible workplace that provides our employees with access to modern scientific tools and resources. Using this guidance and its underlying principles, we are continuing to restore credibility and operational effectiveness to the Laboratory, deliver mission success and continuing scientific excellence, and protect our employees and the nation’s secrets.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Impact of Operating Parameters and Correlated Parameters for Extended BWR Burnup Credit

Applicants for certificates of compliance for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) transportation and dry storage systems perform analyses to demonstrate that these systems are adequately subcritical per the requirements of Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR) Parts 71 and 72. For pressurized water reactor (PWR) SNF, these analyses may credit the reduction in assembly reactivity caused by depletion of fissile nuclides and buildup of neutron-absorbing nuclides during power operation. This credit for reactivity reduction during depletion is commonly referred to as burnup credit (BUC). US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff review BUC analyses according to the guidance in the Division of Spent Fuel Storage and Transportation Interim Staff Guidance (ISG) 8, Revision 3, Burnup Credit in the Criticality Safety Analyses of PWR Spent Fuel in Transportation and Storage Casks.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Preventive Rad/Nuc Detection Equipment Categorization for Consequence Management

The overall objective of this project is to research, evaluate, and test first responder preventive radiological/nuclear detection equipment (PRND) to provide state and local agencies with guidance on how to best use this equipment for response after a radiological/nuclear release or detonation. While the equipment being tested in this effort has been specifically designed for detection and interdiction operations, the fleet of PRND equipment can help fill critical needs for radiological instrumentation should a consequence management response take place. This effort will provide scientific guidance on the best way to deploy and operate this class of equipment for consequence management missions. With the support of the US Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO), PRND equipment has been placed into service at federal, state, and local agencies throughout the nation. If the equipment capability and limitations are taken into account, this large inventory can be repurposed to support the emergency response in the aftermath of a radiological of nuclear event. This report evaluates PRND equipment to define key categories of equipment and the types of missions they can be used for. This is important because there are over 100 different types of PRND equipment, often with significantly different capabilities with respect to the consequence management mission. The current DNDO draft NIMS PRND equipment types were used as a foundation and expanded, when necessary, to address key characteristics important for the consequence mission. Table 1 provides a summary of the PRND instrument categories developed for this effort. Also included on the table are some common response mission detection equipment categories that will be used for capability comparisons.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2016

SSHAC Level 1 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Idaho National Laboratory

A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) was completed for the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC), Naval Reactors Facility (NRF), and the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) (Figure 1-1). The PSHA followed the approaches and procedures appropriate for a Study Level 1 provided in the guidance advanced by the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) in U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) NUREG/CR-6372 and NUREG-2117 (NRC, 1997; 2012a). The SSHAC Level 1 PSHAs for MFC and ATR were conducted as part of the Seismic Risk Assessment (SRA) project (INL Project number 31287) to develop and apply a new-risk informed methodology, respectively. The SSHAC Level 1 PSHA was conducted for NRF to provide guidance on the potential use of a design margin above rock hazard levels. The SRA project is developing a new risk-informed methodology that will provide a systematic approach for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA. The new methodology proposes criteria to be employed at specific analysis, decision, or comparison points in its evaluation process. The first four of seven criteria address changes in inputs and results of the PSHA and are given in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Standard, DOE-STD-1020-2012 (DOE, 2012a) and American National Standards Institute/American Nuclear Society (ANSI/ANS) 2.29 (ANS, 2008a). The last three criteria address evaluation of quantitative hazard and risk-focused information of an existing nuclear facility. The seven criteria and decision points are applied to Seismic Design Category (SDC) 3, 4, and 5, which are defined in American Society of Civil Engineers/Structural Engineers Institute (ASCE/SEI) 43-05 (ASCE, 2005). The application of the criteria and decision points could lead to an update or could determine that such update is not necessary.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Data Quality Objectives Supporting the Environmental Soil Monitoring Program for the Idaho National Laboratory Site

This document describes the process used to develop data quality objectives for the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Environmental Soil Monitoring Program in accordance with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency guidance. This document also develops and presents the logic that was used to determine the specific number of soil monitoring locations at the INL Site, at locations bordering the INL Site, and at locations in the surrounding regional area. The monitoring location logic follows the guidance from the U.S. Department of Energy for environmental surveillance of its facilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Criticality Safety Evaluation for Small Sample Preparation and Non-Destructive Assay (NDA) Operations in Wing 7 Basement of the CMR Facility

Nuclear Criticality Safety (NCS) has reviewed the fissionable material small sample preparation and NDA operations in Wing 7 Basement of the CMR Facility. This is a Level-1 evaluation conducted in accordance with NCS-AP-004 [Reference 1], formerly NCS-GUIDE-01, and the guidance set forth on use of the Standard Criticality Safety Requirements (SCSRs) [Reference 2]. As stated in Reference 2, the criticality safety evaluation consists of both the SCSR CSED and the SCSR Application CSED. The SCSR CSED is a Level-3 CSED [Reference 3]. This Level-1 CSED is the SCSR Application CSED. This SCSR Application (Level-1) evaluation does not derive controls, it simply applies controls derived from the SCSR CSED (Level-3) for the application of operations conducted here. The controls derived in the SCSR CSED (Level-3) were evaluated via the process described in Section 6.6.5 of SD-130 (also reproduced in Section 4.3.5 of NCS-AP-004 [Reference 1]) and were determined to not meet the requirements for consideration of elevation into the safety basis documentation for CMR. According to the guidance set forth on use of the SCSRs [Reference 2], the SCSR CSED (Level-3) is also applicable to the CMR Facility because the process and the normal and credible abnormal conditions in question are bounded by those that are described in the SCSR CSED. The controls derived in the SCSR CSED include allowances for solid materials and solution operations. Based on the operations conducted at this location, there are less-than-accountable (LTA) amounts of 233 U. Based on the evaluation documented herein, the normal and credible abnormal conditions that might arise during the execution of this process will remain subcritical with the following recommended controls.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Mission Analysis for Using Preventive Radiological/Nuclear Detection Equipment for Consequence Management

The overall objective of this project is to research, evaluate, and test first responder preventive radiological/nuclear detection (PRND) equipment to provide state and local agencies with scientific guidance on how to effectively use this equipment for response after a radiological/nuclear release or detonation. While the equipment being tested in this effort has been specifically designed by technology manufacturers and purchased by responders for preventive detection and source interdiction operations, the fleet of PRND equipment can help fill critical needs for radiological instrumentation should a consequence management (CM) response take place, as it is currently the most widely available and fielded radiological instrumentation by state and local agencies. This effort will provide scientific guidance on the most effective way to utilize this class of equipment for consequence management missions. Gaining a better understanding of how PRND equipment can operate and perform for these missions will allow for recommendations on the tactical approach responders can use for consequence management operations. PRND equipment has been placed into service by federal, state, and local agencies throughout the nation. If the equipment capability and limitations are taken into account, this large inventory can be leveraged to support the emergency response in the aftermath of a radiological or nuclear event. With several hundred makes and models of PRND equipment, often with significantly different detection capabilities that do not align with their nominal PRND equipment type, development of a streamlined categorization scheme with respect to consequence management missions was the first step to identifying safe and effective uses of PRND equipment for radiological/nuclear incident response.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Geomechanical Framework for Secure CO 2 Storage in Fractured Reservoirs and Caprocks for Sedimentary Basins in theMidwest United States

This report presents final technical results for the project Geomechanical Framework for Secure CO 2 Storage in Fractured Reservoirs and Caprocks for Sedimentary Basins in the Midwest United States (DE-FE0023330). The project was a three-year effort consisting of seven technical tasks focused on defining geomechanical factors for CO 2 storage applications in deep saline rock formations in Ohio and the Midwest United States, because geomechancial issues have been identified as a significant risk factor for large-scale CO 2 storage applications. A basin-scale stress-strain analysis was completed to describe the geomechanical setting for rock formations of Ordovician-Cambrian age in Ohio and adjacent areas of the Midwest United States in relation to geologic CO 2 storage applications. The tectonic setting, stress orientation-magnitude, and geomechanical and petrophysical parameters for CO 2 storage zones and caprocks in the region were cataloged. Ten geophysical image logs were analyzed for natural fractures, borehole breakouts, and drilling-induced fractures. The logs indicated mostly less than 10 fractures per 100 vertical feet in the borehole, with mostly N65E principal stress orientation through the section. Geophysical image logs and other logs were obtained for three wells located near the sites where specific models were developed for geomechanical simulations: Arches site in Boone County, Kentucky; Northern Appalachian Basin site in Chautauqua County, New York; and E-Central Appalachian Basin site in Tuscarawas County, Ohio. For these three wells, 9,700 feet of image logs were processed and interpreted to provide a systematic review of the distribution within each well of natural fractures, wellbore breakouts, faults, and drilling induced fractures. There were many borehole breakouts and drilling-induced tensile fractures but few natural fractures. Concentrated fractures were present at the Rome-basal sandstone and basal sandstone-Precambrian contacts at the Arches and East-Central Appalachian Basin sites. Geophysical logs were utilized to develop local-scale geologic models by determining geomechanical and petrophysical parameters within the geologic formations. These data were ported to coupled fluid-flow and reservoir geomechanics multi-phase CO 2 injection simulations. The models were developed to emphasize the geomechanical layers within the CO 2 storage zones and caprocks. A series of simulations were completed for each site to evaluate whether commercial-scale CO 2 could be safely injected into each site, given site-specific geologic and geomechanical controls. This involved analyzing the simulation results for the integrity of the caprock, intermediate, and reservoir zones, as well quantifying the areal uplift at the surface. Simulation results were also examined to ensure that the stress-stress perturbations were isolated within the subsurface, and that there was only limited upward migration of the CO 2 . Simulations showed capacity to inject more than 10 million metric tons of CO 2 in a single well at the Arches and East Central Appalachian Basin sites without excessive geomechanical risks. Low-permeability rock layers at the Northern Appalachian Basin study area well resulted in very low CO 2 injection capacity. Fracture models developed for the sites suggests that the sites have sparse fracture network in the deeper Cambrian rocks. However, there were indicators in image logs of a moderate fracture matrix in the Rose Run Sandstone at the Northern Appalachian Basin site. Dual permeability fracture matrix simulations suggest the much higher injection rates may be feasible in the fractured interval. Guidance was developed for geomechanical site characterization in the areas of geophysical logging, rock core testing, well testing, and site monitoring. The guidance demonstrates that there is a suitable array of options for addressing geomechanical issues at CO 2 storage sites. Finally, a review of Marcellus and Utica-Point Pleasant shale gas wells and CO 2 storage intervals indicates that these items are vertically separated, except for the Oriskany sandstone and Marcellus wells in southwest Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia. Together, project results present a more realistic portrayal of geomechanical risk factors related to CO 2 storage for existing and future coal-fired power plants in Ohio.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methodology: Development of Beta 1.0 MASTODON Toolset

Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States, but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the plant elements and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms. Development of the next generation tools and methods for external events PRA is ongoing under the Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) technical pathway. The RISMC toolkit development centers on integration of the tools and methods under a common framework, MOOSE. These tools and methods make use of existing and newly developed tools and methods, coupled with the experience and data gained in the past decades, to define and analyze more realistic risk assessment models. Specific focus in this report is on the capability to model seismic risk using advanced SPRA methods. Over the last year, significant capability has been added to Mastodon to simulate 3-D wave passage effects through nonlinear soil. Verification has demonstrated the capability of Mastodon to model wave passage effects in 1-D, 2-D, and 3-D. Methods have been developed to incorporate probabilistic floor response capabilities. Additional capability will be added to Mastodon over the next year to implement a robust gapping and sliding element for cyclic shaking, web-based verification and user manuals, stochastic finite elements, and frequency independent damping. Verification of added capabilities has occured in parallel with code writing activities.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗