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At least 775 records · Page 43

Evaluation of Global Observations-Based Evapotranspiration Datasets and IPCC AR4 Simulations

Quantification of global land evapotranspiration (ET) has long been associated with large uncertainties due to the lack of reference observations. Several recently developed products now provide the capacity to estimate ET at global scales. These products, partly based on observational data, include satellite ]based products, land surface model (LSM) simulations, atmospheric reanalysis output, estimates based on empirical upscaling of eddycovariance flux measurements, and atmospheric water balance datasets. The LandFlux-EVAL project aims to evaluate and compare these newly developed datasets. Additionally, an evaluation of IPCC AR4 global climate model (GCM) simulations is presented, providing an assessment of their capacity to reproduce flux behavior relative to the observations ]based products. Though differently constrained with observations, the analyzed reference datasets display similar large-scale ET patterns. ET from the IPCC AR4 simulations was significantly smaller than that from the other products for India (up to 1 mm/d) and parts of eastern South America, and larger in the western USA, Australia and China. The inter-product variance is lower across the IPCC AR4 simulations than across the reference datasets in several regions, which indicates that uncertainties may be underestimated in the IPCC AR4 models due to shared biases of these simulations.

Mueller, B.↗

Upgrades, Current Capabilities and Near-Term Plans of the NASA ARC Mars Climate

We describe and review recent upgrades to the ARC Mars climate modeling framework, in particular, with regards to physical parameterizations (i.e., testing, implementation, modularization and documentation); the current climate modeling capabilities; selected research topics regarding current/past climates; and then, our near-term plans related to the NASA ARC Mars general circulation modeling (GCM) project.

Hollingsworth, J. L.↗

Coupled Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate Twentieth-Century Transient Model Investigation: Trends in Short-Lived Species and Climate Responses

The authors simulate transient twentieth-century climate in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM, with aerosol and ozone chemistry fully coupled to one another and to climate including a full dynamic ocean. Aerosols include sulfate, black carbon (BC), organic carbon, nitrate, sea salt, and dust. Direct and BC snow-albedo radiative effects are included. Model BC and sulfur trends agree fairly well with records from Greenland and European ice cores and with sulfur deposition in North America; however, the model underestimates the sulfur decline at the end of the century in Greenland. Global BC effects peak early in the century (1940s); afterward the BC effects decrease at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but continue to increase at lower latitudes. The largest increase in aerosol optical depth occurs in the middle of the century (1940s-80s) when sulfate forcing peaks and causes global dimming. After this, aerosols decrease in eastern North America and northern Eurasia leading to regional positive forcing changes and brightening. These surface forcing changes have the correct trend but are too weak. Over the century, the net aerosol direct effect is -0.41 Watts per square meter, the BC-albedo effect is -0.02 Watts per square meter, and the net ozone forcing is +0.24 Watts per square meter. The model polar stratospheric ozone depletion develops, beginning in the 1970s. Concurrently, the sea salt load and negative radiative flux increase over the oceans around Antarctica. Net warming over the century is modeled fairly well; however, the model fails to capture the dynamics of the observedmidcentury cooling followed by the late century warming.Over the century, 20% of Arctic warming and snow ice cover loss is attributed to the BC albedo effect. However, the decrease in this effect at the end of the century contributes to Arctic cooling. To test the climate responses to sulfate and BC pollution, two experiments were branched from 1970 that removed all pollution sulfate or BC. Averaged over 1970-2000, the respective radiative forcings relative to the full experiment were +0.3 and -0.3 Watts per square meter; the average surface air temperature changes were +0.2 degrees and -0.03 C. The small impact of BC reduction on surface temperature resulted from reduced stability and loss of low-level clouds.

Koch, Dorothy↗

A Cloud Greenhouse Effect on Mars: Significant Climate Change in the Recent Past

The large variations in Mars orbit parameters are known to be significant drivers of climate change on the Red planet. The recent discovery of buried CO2 ice at the South Pole adds another dimension to climate change studies. In this paper we present results from the Ames GCM that show within the past million years it is possible that clouds from a greatly intensified Martian hydrological cycle may have produced a greenhouse effect strong enough to raise global mean surface temperatures by several tens of degrees Kelvin. It is made possible by the ability of the Martian atmosphere to transport water to high altitudes where cold clouds form, reduce the outgoing longwave radiation, and drive up surface temperatures to maintain global energy balance.

Haberle, Robert M.↗

Advancements in the Representation of Cloud-Aerosol Microphysics in the GEOS-5 AGCM

Despite numerous challenges, the physical parameterization of cloud-aerosol interactions in atmospheric GCMs has become a top priority for advancement because of our need to simulate and understand past, current, and future indirect effects of aerosols on clouds. The challenges stem from the involvement of wide range of cloud-scale dynamics and aerosol activation physical processes. Cloud dynamics modulate cloud areal extent and condensate, while aerosol activation depends on aerosol mass load, size distribution, internal mixing state, and nucleating properties, and ultimately determines cloud optical properties via particle sizes. Both macro- and micro-scale processes are obviously important for cloud-radiation interactions. We will present the main features of cloud microphysical properties in the GEOS- 5 Atmospheric GCM (AGCM) as simulated by the McRAS-AC (Microphysics of Clouds with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert and Aerosol-Cloud interaction) scheme. McRAS-AC uses Fountoukis and Nenes (2005) aerosol activation for liquid clouds, and has an option for either Liu and Penner (2005) or Barahona and Nenes (2008, 2009) aerosol activation for ice clouds. Aerosol loading (on-line or climatological) comes from GOCART, with an assumed log-normal size distribution. Other features of McRAS-AC are level-by-level cloud-scale thermodynamics, and Seifert-Beheng (2001)-type precipitation microphysics, particularly from moist convection. Results from Single-Column Model simulations will be shown to demonstrate how cloud radiative properties, lifetimes, and precipitation are influenced by different parameterization assumptions. Corresponding fields from year-long simulations of the full AGCM will also be presented with geographical distributions of cloud effective particle sizes compared to satellite retrievals. While the primary emphasis will be on current climate, simulation results with perturbed aerosol loadings will also be shown to expose the radiative sensitivity of the microphysical parameterization.

Lee, D.↗

Recent Advances in Improvement of Forecast Skill and Understanding Climate Processes Using AIRS Version-5 Products

AIRS/AMSU is the state of the art infrared and microwave atmospheric sounding system flying aboard EOS Aqua. These observations, covering the period September 2002 until the present, have been analyzed using the AIRS Science Team Version-5 retrieval algorithm. AIRS is a high spectral resolution infrared grating spectrometer with spect,ral coverage from 650 per centimeter extending to 2660 per centimeter, with low noise and a spectral resolving power of 2400. A brief overview of the AIRS Version-5 retrieval procedure will be presented, including the AIRS channels used in different steps in the retrieval process. Many researchers have used these products to make significant advances in both climate and weather applications. Recent significant results of these experiments will be presented, including results showing that 1) assimilation of AIRS Quality Controlled temperature profiles into a General Circulation Model (GCM) significantly improves the ability to predict storm tracks of intense precipitation events; and 2) anomaly time-series of Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) computed using AIRS sounding products closely match those determined from the CERES instrument, and furthermore explain that the phenomenon that global and especially tropical mean OLR have been decreasing since September 2002 is a result of El Nino/La Nina oscillations during this period.

Susskind, Joel↗

Hydroclimatic Controls over Global Variations in Phenology and Carbon Flux

The connection between phenological and hydroclimatological variations are quantified through joint analyses of global NDVI, LAI, and precipitation datasets. The global distributions of both NDVI and LAI in the warm season are strongly controlled by three quantities: mean annual precipitation, the standard deviation of annual precipitation, and Budyko's index of dryness. Upon demonstrating that these same basic (if biased) relationships are produced by a dynamic vegetation model (the dynamic vegetation and carbon storage components of the NCAR Community Land Model version 4 combined with the water and energy balance framework of the Catchment Land Surface Model of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office), we use the model to perform a sensitivity study focusing on how phenology and carbon flux might respond to climatic change. The offline (decoupled from the atmosphere) simulations show us, for example, where on the globe a given small increment in precipitation mean or variability would have the greatest impact on carbon uptake. The analysis framework allows us in addition to quantify the degree to which climatic biases in a free-running GCM are manifested as biases in simulated phenology.

Koster, Randal↗

Impacts of Assimilating MLS Temperature on the Upper Stratosphere in GEOS-5

Standard configurations of the GEOS-5 data assimilation system use nadir infrared and microwave sounders that provide deep-layer constraints on the thermal structure in the stratosphere. In the upper stratosphere, this information is currently provided by the Advanced Microwave Sounding Units (AMSU-As) on NOAA s polar-orbiting satellites. The highest peaking AMSU-A channel (14) peaks near 2.5hPa. Evaluation of the upper stratosphere reveals substantial biases in the temperature, cased in part by biases in the underlying GCM, and difficulties in representing the stratopause structure under disturbed conditions. This work demonstrates, unsurprisingly, that the assimilation into GEOS-5 of temperature profiles derived from EOS-Aura MLS leads to a substantially better representation of the stratopause structure from a climatological perspective and for disturbed events. Future plans with GEOS-5 include a reanalysis that includes numerous "research" datasets alongside the operational NOAA datasets that were used in MERRA. As preparation for this reanalysis, the present study examines how assimilating the MLS observations impact the error statistics for the AMSU-A instruments. Discussion will address the issue of bias correction for the AMSU-A Channel 14 radiances, which is presently turned off in GEOS-5 because of the absence of accurate temperature observations that can anchor the GEOS-5 analyses. The issue of what can be done in periods when no limb-sounder data are available will also be addressed.

Pawson, S.↗

Impacts of the Convective Transport Algorithm on Atmospheric Composition and Ozone-Climate Feedbacks in GEOS-CCM

Convective transport is one of the dominant factors in determining the composition of the troposphere. It is the main mechanism for lofting constituents from near-surface source regions to the middle and upper troposphere, where they can subsequently be advected over large distances. Gases reaching the upper troposphere can also be injected through the tropopause and play a subsequent role in the lower stratospheric ozone balance. Convection codes in climate models remain a great source of uncertainty for both the energy balance of the general circulation and the transport of constituents. This study uses the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM) to perform a controlled experiment that isolates the impact of convective transport of constituents from the direct changes on the atmospheric energy balance. Two multi-year simulations are conducted. In the first, the thermodynamic variable, moisture, and all trace gases are transported using the multi-plume Relaxed-Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) convective parameterization. In the second simulation, RAS impacts the thermodynamic energy and moisture in this standard manner, but all other constituents are transported differently. The accumulated convective mass fluxes (including entrainment and detrainment) computed at each time step of the GCM are used with a diffusive (bulk) algorithm for the vertical transport, which above all is less efficient at transporting constituents from the lower to the upper troposphere. Initial results show the expected differences in vertical structure of trace gases such as carbon monoxide, but also show differences in lower stratospheric ozone, in a region where it can potentially impact the climate state of the model. This work will investigate in more detail the impact of convective transport changes by comparing the two simulations over many years (1996-2010), focusing on comparisons with observed constituent distributions and similarities and differences of patterns of inter-annual variability caused by the convective transport algorithm. In particular, the impact on lower stratospheric composition will be isolated and the subsequent feedbacks of ozone on the climate forcing and tropopause structure will be assessed.

Pawson, S.↗

Correction of Excessive Precipitation Over Steep and High Mountains in a General Circulation Model

Excessive precipitation over steep and high mountains (EPSM) is a well-known problem in GCMs and meso-scale models. This problem impairs simulation and data assimilation products. Among the possible causes investigated in this study, we found that the most important one, by far, is a missing upward transport of heat out of the boundary layer due to the vertical circulations forced by the daytime upslope winds, which are forced by the heated boundary layer on subgrid-scale slopes. These upslope winds are associated with large subgrid-scale topographic variation, which is found over steep and high mountains. Without such subgridscale heat ventilation, the resolvable-scale upslope flow in the boundary layer generated by surface sensible heat flux along the mountain slopes is excessive. Such an excessive resolvablescale upslope flow combined with the high moisture content in the boundary layer results in excessive moisture transport toward mountaintops, which in turn gives rise to EPSM. Other possible causes of EPSM that we have investigated include 1) a poorly-designed horizontal moisture flux in the terrain-following coordinates, 2) the condition for cumulus convection being too easily satisfied at mountaintops, 3) the presence of conditional instability of the computational kind, and 4) the absence of blocked flow drag. These are all minor or inconsequential. We have parameterized the ventilation effects of the subgrid-scale heated-slope-induced vertical circulation (SHVC) by removing heat from the boundary layer and depositing it in layers higher up when the topographic variance exceeds a critical value. Test results using NASA/Goddard's GEOS-S GCM have shown that this largely solved the EPSM problem.

Chao, Winston C.↗

Wavelength Dependence of Solar Flare Irradiation and its Influence on the Thermosphere

The wavelength dependence of solar flare enhancement is one of the important factors determining how the Thermosphere-Ionosphere (T-I) system response to flares. To investigate the wavelength dependence of solar flare, the Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) has been run for 34 X-class flares. The results show that the percentage increases of solar irradiance at flare peak comparing to pre-flare condition have a clear wavelength dependence. In the wavelength range between 0 - 195 nm, it can vary from 1% to 10000%. The solar irradiance enhancement is largest ( 1000%) in the XUV range (0 - 25 nm), and is about 100% in EUV range (25 - 120 nm). The influence of different wavebands on the T-I system during the October 28th, 2003 flare (X17.2-class) has also been examined using the latest version of National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Thermosphere- Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM). While the globally integrated solar energy deposition is largest in the 0 - 14 nm waveband, the impact of solar irradiance enhancement on the thermosphere at 400 km is largest for 25 - 105 nm waveband. The effect of 122 - 195 nm is small in magnitude, but it decays slowly.

Huang, Yanshi↗

Sensitivity of Cirrus and Mixed-phase Clouds to the Ice Nuclei Spectra in McRAS-AC: Single Column Model Simulations

The salient features of mixed-phase and ice clouds in a GCM cloud scheme are examined using the ice formation parameterizations of Liu and Penner (LP) and Barahona and Nenes (BN). The performance of LP and BN ice nucleation parameterizations were assessed in the GEOS-5 AGCM using the McRAS-AC cloud microphysics framework in single column mode. Four dimensional assimilated data from the intensive observation period of ARM TWP-ICE campaign was used to drive the fluxes and lateral forcing. Simulation experiments where established to test the impact of each parameterization in the resulting cloud fields. Three commonly used IN spectra were utilized in the BN parameterization to described the availability of IN for heterogeneous ice nucleation. The results show large similarities in the cirrus cloud regime between all the schemes tested, in which ice crystal concentrations were within a factor of 10 regardless of the parameterization used. In mixed-phase clouds there are some persistent differences in cloud particle number concentration and size, as well as in cloud fraction, ice water mixing ratio, and ice water path. Contact freezing in the simulated mixed-phase clouds contributed to transfer liquid to ice efficiently, so that on average, the clouds were fully glaciated at T approximately 260K, irrespective of the ice nucleation parameterization used. Comparison of simulated ice water path to available satellite derived observations were also performed, finding that all the schemes tested with the BN parameterization predicted 20 average values of IWP within plus or minus 15% of the observations.

Betancourt, R. Morales↗

Experimenting with the GMAO 4D Data Assimilation

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has been working to promote its prototype four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) system to a version that can be exercised at operationally desirable configurations. Beyond a general circulation model (GeM) and an analysis system, traditional 4DV AR requires availability of tangent linear (TL) and adjoint (AD) models of the corresponding GeM. The GMAO prototype 4DVAR uses the finite-volume-based GEOS GeM and the Grid-point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system for the first two, and TL and AD models derived ITom an early version of the finite-volume hydrodynamics that is scientifically equivalent to the present GEOS nonlinear GeM but computationally rather outdated. Specifically, the TL and AD models hydrodynamics uses a simple (I-dimensional) latitudinal MPI domain decomposition, which has consequent low scalability and prevents the prototype 4DV AR ITom being used in realistic applications. In the near future, GMAO will be upgrading its operational GEOS GCM (and assimilation system) to use a cubed-sphere-based hydrodynamics. This versions of the dynamics scales to thousands of processes and has led to a decision to re-derive the TL and AD models for this more modern dynamics, thus taking advantage of a two-dimensional MPI decomposition and improved scalability properties. With the aid of the Transformation of Algorithms in FORTRAN (l'AF) automatic adjoint generation tool and some hand-coding, a version of the cubed-sphere-based TL and AD models, with a simplified vertical diffusion scheme, is now available, enabling multiple configurations of standard implementations of 4DV AR in GEOS. Concurrent to this development, collaboration with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) has allowed GMAO to implement a hybrid-ensemble capability within the GEOS data assimilation system. Both 3Dand 4D-ensemble capabilities are presently available thus allowing GMAO to now evaluate the performance and benefit of various ensemble and variational assimilation strategies. This presentation will cover the most recent developments taking place at GMAO and show results from various comparisons from traditional techniques to more recent ensemble-based ones.

Todling, R.↗

The Mars Dust Cycle: Investigating the Effects of Radiatively Active Water Ice Clouds on Surface Stresses and Dust Lifting Potential with the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model

The dust cycle is a critically important component of Mars' current climate system. Dust is present in the atmosphere of Mars year-round but the dust loading varies with season in a generally repeatable manner. Dust has a significant influence on the thermal structure of the atmosphere and thus greatly affects atmospheric circulation. The dust cycle is the most difficult of the three climate cycles (CO2, water, and dust) to model realistically with general circulation models. Until recently, numerical modeling investigations of the dust cycle have typically not included the effects of couplings to the water cycle through cloud formation. In the Martian atmosphere, dust particles likely provide the seed nuclei for heterogeneous nucleation of water ice clouds. As ice coats atmospheric dust grains, the newly formed cloud particles exhibit different physical and radiative characteristics. Thus, the coupling between the dust and water cycles likely affects the distributions of dust, water vapor and water ice, and thus atmospheric heating and cooling and the resulting circulations. We use the NASA Ames Mars GCM to investigate the effects of radiatively active water ice clouds on surface stress and the potential for dust lifting. The model includes a state-of-the-art water ice cloud microphysics package and a radiative transfer scheme that accounts for the radiative effects of CO2 gas, dust, and water ice clouds. We focus on simulations that are radiatively forced by a prescribed dust map, and we compare simulations that do and do not include radiatively active clouds. Preliminary results suggest that the magnitude and spatial patterns of surface stress (and thus dust lifting potential) are substantial influenced by the radiative effects of water ice clouds.

Kahre, Melinda A.↗

Temporal Variability of Observed and Simulated Hyperspectral Earth Reflectance

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) is a climate observation system designed to study Earth's climate variability with unprecedented absolute radiometric accuracy and SI traceability. Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) were developed using GCM output and MODTRAN to simulate CLARREO reflectance measurements during the 21st century as a design tool for the CLARREO hyperspectral shortwave imager. With OSSE simulations of hyperspectral reflectance, Feldman et al. [2011a,b] found that shortwave reflectance is able to detect changes in climate variables during the 21st century and improve time-to-detection compared to broadband measurements. The OSSE has been a powerful tool in the design of the CLARREO imager and for understanding the effect of climate change on the spectral variability of reflectance, but it is important to evaluate how well the OSSE simulates the Earth's present-day spectral variability. For this evaluation we have used hyperspectral reflectance measurements from the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY), a shortwave spectrometer that was operational between March 2002 and April 2012. To study the spectral variability of SCIAMACHY-measured and OSSE-simulated reflectance, we used principal component analysis (PCA), a spectral decomposition technique that identifies dominant modes of variability in a multivariate data set. Using quantitative comparisons of the OSSE and SCIAMACHY PCs, we have quantified how well the OSSE captures the spectral variability of Earth?s climate system at the beginning of the 21st century relative to SCIAMACHY measurements. These results showed that the OSSE and SCIAMACHY data sets share over 99% of their total variance in 2004. Using the PCs and the temporally distributed reflectance spectra projected onto the PCs (PC scores), we can study the temporal variability of the observed and simulated reflectance spectra. Multivariate time series analysis of the PC scores using techniques such as Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and Multichannel SSA will provide information about the temporal variability of the dominant variables. Quantitative comparison techniques can evaluate how well the OSSE reproduces the temporal variability observed by SCIAMACHY spectral reflectance measurements during the first decade of the 21st century. PCA of OSSE-simulated reflectance can also be used to study how the dominant spectral variables change on centennial scales for forced and unforced climate change scenarios. To have confidence in OSSE predictions of the spectral variability of hyperspectral reflectance, it is first necessary for us to evaluate the degree to which the OSSE simulations are able to reproduce the Earth?s present-day spectral variability.

Roberts, Yolanda↗

A Fast and Efficient Version of the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) Global Aerosol Microphysics Model

This study develops more computationally efficient versions of the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) microphysics algorithms, collectively called Fast TOMAS. Several methods for speeding up the algorithm were attempted, but only reducing the number of size sections was adopted. Fast TOMAS models, coupled to the GISS GCM II-prime, require a new coagulation algorithm with less restrictive size resolution assumptions but only minor changes in other processes. Fast TOMAS models have been evaluated in a box model against analytical solutions of coagulation and condensation and in a 3-D model against the original TOMAS (TOMAS-30) model. Condensation and coagulation in the Fast TOMAS models agree well with the analytical solution but show slightly more bias than the TOMAS-30 box model. In the 3-D model, errors resulting from decreased size resolution in each process (i.e., emissions, cloud processing wet deposition, microphysics) are quantified in a series of model sensitivity simulations. Errors resulting from lower size resolution in condensation and coagulation, defined as the microphysics error, affect number and mass concentrations by only a few percent. The microphysics error in CN70CN100 (number concentrations of particles larger than 70100 nm diameter), proxies for cloud condensation nuclei, range from 5 to 5 in most regions. The largest errors are associated with decreasing the size resolution in the cloud processing wet deposition calculations, defined as cloud-processing error, and range from 20 to 15 in most regions for CN70CN100 concentrations. Overall, the Fast TOMAS models increase the computational speed by 2 to 3 times with only small numerical errors stemming from condensation and coagulation calculations when compared to TOMAS-30. The faster versions of the TOMAS model allow for the longer, multi-year simulations required to assess aerosol effects on cloud lifetime and precipitation.

Lee, Yunha↗

Characteristics of Mesoscale Organization in WRF Simulations of Convection during TWP-ICE

Compared to satellite-derived heating profiles, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GCM) convective heating is too deep and its stratiform upper-level heating is too weak. This deficiency highlights the need for GCMs to parameterize the mesoscale organization of convection. Cloud-resolving model simulations of convection near Darwin, Australia, in weak wind shear environments of different humidities are used to characterize mesoscale organization processes and to provide parameterization guidance. Downdraft cold pools appear to stimulate further deep convection both through their effect on eddy size and vertical velocity. Anomalously humid air surrounds updrafts, reducing the efficacy of entrainment. Recovery of cold pool properties to ambient conditions over 5-6 h proceeds differently over land and ocean. Over ocean increased surface fluxes restore the cold pool to prestorm conditions. Over land surface fluxes are suppressed in the cold pool region; temperature decreases and humidity increases, and both then remain nearly constant, while the undisturbed environment cools diurnally. The upper-troposphere stratiform rain region area lags convection by 5-6 h under humid active monsoon conditions but by only 1-2 h during drier break periods, suggesting that mesoscale organization is more readily sustained in a humid environment. Stratiform region hydrometeor mixing ratio lags convection by 0-2 h, suggesting that it is strongly influenced by detrainment from convective updrafts. Small stratiform region temperature anomalies suggest that a mesoscale updraft parameterization initialized with properties of buoyant detrained air and evolving to a balance between diabatic heating and adiabatic cooling might be a plausible approach for GCMs.

Del Genio, Anthony D.↗

Regional Warming from Aerosol Removal over the United States: Results from a Transient 2010-2050 Climate Simulation

We use a general circulation model (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM 3) to investigate the regional climate response to removal of aerosols over the United States. We perform a pair of transient 2010e2050 climate simulations following a scenario of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, with and without aerosols over the United States and with present-day aerosols elsewhere. We find that removing U.S. aerosol significantly enhances the warming from greenhouse gases in a spatial pattern that strongly correlates with that of the aerosol. Warming is nearly negligible outside the United States, but annual mean surface temperatures increase by 0.4e0.6 K in the eastern United States. Temperatures during summer heat waves in the Northeast rise by as much as 1e2 K due to aerosol removal, driven in part by positive feedbacks involving soil moisture and low cloud cover. Reducing U.S. aerosol sources to achieve air quality objectives could thus have significant unintended regional warming consequences.

Mickley, L. J.↗