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DOE OSTI2012

Estimating the Bias of Local Polynomial Approximations Using the Peano Kernel

These presentation visuals define local polynomial approximations, give formulas for bias and random components of the error, and express bias error in terms of the Peano kernel. They further derive constants that give figures of merit, and show the figures of merit for 3 common weighting functions. The Peano kernel theorem yields estimates for the bias error for local-polynomial-approximation smoothing that are superior in several ways to the error estimates in the current literature.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Robust and scalable uncertainty estimation with conformal prediction for machine-learned interatomic potentials

Abstract Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is important to machine learning (ML) force fields to assess the level of confidence during prediction, as ML models are not inherently physical and can therefore yield catastrophically incorrect predictions. Established a-posteriori UQ methods, including ensemble methods, the dropout method, the delta method, and various heuristic distance metrics, have limitations such as being computationally challenging for large models due to model re-training. In addition, the uncertainty estimates are often not rigorously calibrated. In this work, we propose combining the distribution-free UQ method, known as conformal prediction (CP), with the distances in the neural network’s latent space to estimate the uncertainty of energies predicted by neural network force fields. We evaluate this method (CP+latent) along with other UQ methods on two essential aspects, calibration, and sharpness, and find this method to be both calibrated and sharp under the assumption of independent and identically-distributed (i.i.d.) data. We show that the method is relatively insensitive to hyperparameters selected, and test the limitations of the method when the i.i.d. assumption is violated. Finally, we demonstrate that this method can be readily applied to trained neural network force fields with traditional and graph neural network architectures to obtain estimates of uncertainty with low computational costs on a training dataset of 1 million images to showcase its scalability and portability. Incorporating the CP method with latent distances offers a calibrated, sharp and efficient strategy to estimate the uncertainty of neural network force fields. In addition, the CP approach can also function as a promising strategy for calibrating uncertainty estimated by other approaches.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Intra-day variability of three Seyfert galaxies measured with XMM-Newton

We analyze the variability of three Seyfert galaxies on intra-day timescales. We have analyzed in a uniform manner the 38 longest (>30 ks) observations made for NGC 4051, MCG-06–30–15 and NGC 4151 by XMM-Newton between 2000 and 2015. The nuclei were quite active during essentially all of these observations and the overall X-ray fluxes (0.3–10 keV) varied by an order of magnitude. Most of the observations do appear to show characteristic timescales, estimated through their auto-correlation functions, ranging between ~2.9 ks and ~45.3 ks. The hard (2–10 keV) and soft (0.3–2.0 keV) bands are very well correlated but consideration of their hardness ratios shows that the sources typically soften during flares. We also provide new estimates of the central black hole masses for these three AGNs that support the hypothesis that Narrow Line Seyfert 1 galaxies have relatively small central black holes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Integration, Validation, and Application of a PV Snow Coverage Model in SAM

Due to the increasing deployment of PV systems in snowy climates, there is significant interest in a method capable of estimating PV losses resulting from snow coverage that has been verified for a wide variety of system designs and locations. A scattering of independent snow coverage models have been developed over the last 15 years; however, there has been very little effort spent on verifying these models beyond the system design and location on which they were based. Moreover, none of the major PV modeling software products have incorporated any of these models into their workflow. In response to this deficiency, we have integrated the methodology of the snow model developed in the paper by Marion et al. [1] into the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) System Advisor Model (SAM). In this work we describe how the snow model is implemented in SAM and discuss our demonstration of the model's effectiveness at reducing error in annual estimations for two PV arrays. Following this, we use this new functionality in conjunction with a long term historical dataset to estimate average snow losses across the United States for a typical PV system design. The open availability of the snow loss estimation capability in SAM to the PV modeling community, coupled with our results of the nation-wide study, will better equip the industry to accurately estimate PV energy production in areas affected by snowfall.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Integration, Validation, and Application of a PV Snow Coverage Model in SAM

Due to the increasing deployment of PV systems in snowy climates, there is significant interest in a method capable of estimating PV losses resulting from snow coverage that has been verified for a variety of system designs and locations. Many independent snow coverage models have been developed over the last 15 years; however, there has been very little effort verifying these models beyond the system designs and locations on which they were based. Moreover, major PV modeling software products have not yet incorporated any of these models into their workflows. In response to this deficiency, we have integrated the methodology of the snow model developed in the paper by Marion et al. (2013) into the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) System Advisor Model (SAM). In this work, we describe how the snow model is implemented in SAM and we discuss our demonstration of the model's effectiveness at reducing error in annual estimations for three PV arrays. Next, we use this new functionality in conjunction with a long term historical data set to estimate average snow losses across the United States for two typical PV system designs. The open availability of the snow loss estimation capability in SAM to the PV modeling community, coupled with our results of the nationwide study, will better equip the industry to accurately estimate PV energy production in areas affected by snowfall.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Drift‐Kinetic Method for Obtaining Gradients in Plasma Properties From Single‐Point Distribution Function Data

Abstract In this paper, we derive a new drift‐kinetic method for estimating gradients in the plasma properties through a velocity space distribution at a single point. The gradients are intrinsically related to agyrotropic features of the distribution function. This method predicts the gradients in the magnetized distribution function and can predict gradients of arbitrary moments of the gyrotropic background distribution function. The method allows for estimates on density and pressure gradients on the scale of a Larmor radius, proving to resolve smaller scales than any method currently available to spacecraft. The model is verified with a set of fully kinetic VPIC particle‐in‐cell simulations.

Wetherton, B. A.↗

DOE OSTI2012

The effect of high-level waste glass composition on spinel liquidus temperature

Spinel crystals precipitate in high-level waste glasses containing Fe, Cr, Ni, Mn, Zn, and Ru. The liquidus temperature (T{sub L}d) of spinel as the primary crystallization phase is a function of glass composition, and the spinel solubility (c{sub o}) is a function of both glass composition and temperature (T). Previously reported models of T{sub L} as a function of composition are based on T{sub L} measured directly, which requires laborious experimental procedures. Viewing the curve of c{sub o} versus T as the liquidus line allows a significant broadening of the composition region for model fitting. This paper estimates T{sub L} as a function of composition based on c{sub o} data obtained with the X-ray diffraction technique.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2015

Electron-phonon coupling and thermal conductance at a metal-semiconductor interface: First-principles analysis

The mechanism of heat transfer and the contribution of electron-phonon coupling to thermal conductance of a metal-semiconductor interface remains unclear in the present literature. We report ab initio simulations of a technologically important titanium silicide (metal)–silicon (semiconductor) interface to estimate the Schottky barrier height, and the strength of electron-phonon and phonon-phonon heat transfer across the interface. The electron and phonon dispersion relations of TiSi{sub 2} with C49 structure and the TiSi{sub 2}-Si interface are obtained using first-principles calculations within the density functional theory framework. These are used to estimate electron-phonon linewidths and the associated Eliashberg function that quantifies coupling. We show that the coupling strength of electrons with interfacial phonon modes is of the same order of magnitude as coupling of electrons to phonon modes in the bulk metal, and its contribution to electron-phonon interfacial conductance is comparable to the harmonic phonon-phonon conductance across the interface.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2013

Development of an identification method of pressure anisotropy based on equilibrium analysis and magnetics

We evaluate the fluxes measured by the magnetic flux loops installed in LHD by using a three dimensional MHD equilibrium analysis code, ANIMEC, which enable us to directly determine the calibration function between the anisotropic pressure and the measured fluxes for the non-axisymmetric plasmas for the first time. The result indicates that the diamagnetic flux represents a nearly single-valued function of the beta perpendicular with respect to the field, and the saddle loop flux represents a nearly single-valued function of an equally weighted average of the beta values parallel and perpendicular to the field, regardless of the pressure anisotropy or the amount of energetic trapped particles. The values of the beta perpendicular to the field and the equal weighting averaged beta estimated by the single-valued functions (calibration functions) are investigated in order to clarify the magnitude of deviation from those original values, and the range of anisotropy where the beta value evaluated by the magnetic flux measurement is calculated within a 10% error.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Pre-commercial Demonstration of Direct Non-iterative State Estimator for Operational Use of Synchrophasor Management Systems

The objective of this project was to demonstrate functionality and performance of a Direct Non-iterative State Estimator (DNSE) integrated with NYPA’s Energy Management System (EMS) and with enhanced Real Time Dynamics Monitoring System (RTDMS) synchrophasor platform from Electric Power Group (EPG). DNSE is designed to overcome a major obstacle to operational use of Synchro-Phasor Management Systems (SPMS) by providing to synchrophasor management systems (SPMS) applications a consistent and a complete synchrophasor data foundation in the same way that a traditional EMS State Estimator (SE) provides to EMS applications. Specifically, DNSE is designed to use synchrophasor measurements collected by a central PDC, Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) measurements, and Energy Management System (EMS) network model, to obtain the complete state of the utility’s operating model at rates that are close to the synchrophasor data rates. In this way, the system is comprehensive in that it does not only cover the part of the network that is “visible” via synchrophasors, but also the part that is only “visible” through the SCADA measurements. Visualization needs associated with the use of DNSE results are fulfilled through suitably enhanced Real Time Dynamics Monitoring System (RTDMS), with the enhancements implemented by EPG. This project had the following goals in mind: To advance the deployment of commercial grade DNSE software application that relies on synchrophasor and SCADA data ; Apply DNSE at other utilities, to address a generic and fundamental need for “clean” operational data for synchrophasor applications; Provide means for “live” estimated data access by control system operators; Enhance potential for situational awareness through full system operational model coverage; Sub-second execution rate of the Direct Non-iterative State Estimator, eventually at a near-phasor data rate execution speed, i.e. < 0.1 sec. Anticipated benefits from this projects are: Enhanced reliability and improvements in the economic efficiency of bulk power system planning and operations; Providing “clean” data to other synchrophasor applications; Enhancement of situational awareness by providing the full operational model updated at near synchrophasor rate; A production-grade software tool that incorporate synchrophasor and SCADA data; Provides a basis for development of next generation monitoring and control applications, based on both SCADA and PMU data. Quanta Technology (QT) team worked in collaboration with Electric Power Group (EPG) whose team has enhanced its commercial Real Time Dynamics Monitoring System (RTDMS) to accommodate the requirements posed by DNSE application. EPG also provided its ePDC and Model-less Data Conditioning (PDVC) software for integration with DNSE+. QT developed the system requirements for DNSE; developed system architecture and defined interfaces between internal DNSE components. The core DNSE algorithm with all surrounding interfaces was named DNSE+. Since the DNSE development was done in a simulated system environment, QT used its PMU simulator that was enhanced during this project for development and factory acceptance testing (FAT). SCADA data in this stage was simulated by commercial PSS/e software. The output of DNSE are estimates of System states in C37.118-2 format, sent to RTDMS for further processing and display. As the number of these states is large, it was necessary to expand the C37.111-2 standard to accommodate large data sets. This enhancement was implemented in RTDMS. The demonstration of pre-production DNSE technology was done at NYPA using streaming field data from NYPA PMUs and from its RTUs through their SCADA system. NYPA provided ICCP interface as well as Common Information Model (CIM). The relevance of the DNSE+ application is that it provides state estimation of the power system based on hybrid set of data, consisting of both available PMU data and SCADA measurements. As this is a direct, non-iterative method of calculation of the system states, if does not suffer from convergence issues which is potential problem for conventional state estimators. Also, it can take any available PMU measurements, so it does not need to have a high percentage of PMU coverage needed in the case of Linear State Estimator. As the DNSE calculates synchrophasors of the system states (both phase and absolute value) as sub-second rate, this application can provide a basis for development of next generation of applications based both on SCADA and PMU data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic thermal behavior of polycrystalline LaB 6 hollow cathodes

Lanthanum hexaboride (LaB6) hollow cathodes have demonstrated a capability for long life operation, which is critical to many space exploration missions. Thermal characterization of LaB6 hollow cathodes has revealed lower than expected electron emitter temperatures when the cathode reaches a steady state. This phenomenon is observed at discharge currents ranging from 5 to 35 A and xenon mass flow rates of 5–25 SCCM in cathodes with three different orifice diameters. Thus, the currently accepted value of the work function for polycrystalline LaB 6 , 2.67 eV, does not describe well the emission characteristics of LaB6 hollow cathodes operating with internal gas discharges at a steady state. We use empirically measured temperatures combined with a model of the hollow cathode emitter and xenon discharge to estimate the value of the work function, yielding a value ranging from 2.1 to 2.44 eV. This lower work function value implies that LaB6 hollow cathodes are expected to have even longer lifetimes than previously anticipated, further establishing them as a more suited alternative to other conventional cathode technologies for the task of long duration travel. Direct measurements of the work function as a function of depth on a hollow cathode emitter using x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and ion beam milling indicate that the work function decreases with depth. We postulate several mechanisms that could explain the observed work function enhancement. Altogether, our results have important implications to the design, study approach, and operation of LaB 6 cathodes and potentially other cathodes with hollow configuration. Finally, our work opens the question of why the work function is reduced upon interaction with Xe plasma.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2017

Green Routing Fuel Saving Opportunity Assessment: A Case Study on California Large-Scale Real-World Travel Data

New technologies, such as connected and automated vehicles, have attracted more and more researchers for improving the energy efficiency and environmental impact of current transportation systems. The green routing strategy instructs a vehicle to select the most fuel-efficient route before the vehicle departs. It benefits the current transportation system with fuel saving opportunity through identifying the greenest route. This paper introduces an evaluation framework for estimating benefits of green routing based on large-scale, real-world travel data. The framework has the capability to quantify fuel savings by estimating the fuel consumption of actual routes and comparing to routes procured by navigation systems. A route-based fuel consumption estimation model, considering road traffic conditions, functional class, and road grade is proposed and used in the framework. An experiment using a large-scale data set from the California Household Travel Survey global positioning system trajectory data base indicates that 31% of actual routes have fuel savings potential with a cumulative estimated fuel savings of 12%.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2015

PanFP: Pangenome-based functional profiles for microbial communities

For decades there has been increasing interest in understanding the relationships between microbial communities and ecosystem functions. Current DNA sequencing technologies allows for the exploration of microbial communities in two principle ways: targeted rRNA gene surveys and shotgun metagenomics. For large study designs, it is often still prohibitively expensive to sequence metagenomes at both the breadth and depth necessary to statistically capture the true functional diversity of a community. Although rRNA gene surveys provide no direct evidence of function, they do provide a reasonable estimation of microbial diversity, while being a very cost effective way to screen samples of interest for later shotgun metagenomic analyses. However, there is a great deal of 16S rRNA gene survey data currently available from diverse environments, and thus a need for tools to infer functional composition of environmental samples based on 16S rRNA gene survey data. As a result, we present a computational method called pangenome based functional profiles (PanFP), which infers functional profiles of microbial communities from 16S rRNA gene survey data for Bacteria and Archaea. PanFP is based on pangenome reconstruction of a 16S rRNA gene operational taxonomic unit (OTU) from known genes and genomes pooled from the OTU s taxonomic lineage. From this lineage, we derive an OTU functional profile by weighting a pangenome s functional profile with the OTUs abundance observed in a given sample. We validated our method by comparing PanFP to the functional profiles obtained from the direct shotgun metagenomic measurement of 65 diverse communities via Spearman correlation coefficients. These correlations improved with increasing sequencing depth, within the range of 0.8 0.9 for the most deeply sequenced Human Microbiome Project mock community samples. PanFP is very similar in performance to another recently released tool, PICRUSt, for almost all of survey data analysed here. But, our method is unique in that any OTU building method can be used, as opposed to being limited to closed reference OTU picking strategies against specific reference sequence databases. In conclusion, we developed an automated computational method, which derives an inferred functional profile based on the 16S rRNA gene surveys of microbial communities. The inferred functional profile provides a cost effective way to study complex ecosystems through predicted comparative functional metagenomes and metadata analysis. All PanFP source code and additional documentation are freely available online at GitHub.

16S rRNA survey↗

DOE OSTI2017

Green Routing Fuel Saving Opportunity Assessment: A Case Study on California Large-Scale Real-World Travel Data: Preprint

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2014

The cosmic evolution of Fermi BL Lacertae objects

Fermi has provided the largest sample of γ-ray-selected blazars to date. In this work we use a uniformly selected set of 211 BL Lacertae (BL Lac) objects detected by Fermi during its first year of operation. We obtained redshift constraints for 206 out of the 211 BL Lac objects in our sample, making it the largest and most complete sample of BL Lac objects available in the literature. We use this sample to determine the luminosity function of BL Lac objects and its evolution with cosmic time. We find that for most BL Lac classes the evolution is positive, with a space density peaking at modest redshift (z ≈ 1.2). Low-luminosity, high-synchrotron-peaked (HSP) BL Lac objects are an exception, showing strong negative evolution, with number density increasing for z ≲ 0.5. Since this rise corresponds to a drop-off in the density of flat-spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs), a possible interpretation is that these HSPs represent an accretion-starved end state of an earlier merger-driven gas-rich phase. We additionally find that the known BL Lac correlation between luminosity and photon spectral index persists after correction for the substantial observational selection effects with implications for the so-called 'blazar sequence'. Finally, by estimating the beaming corrections to the luminosity function, we find that BL Lac objects have an average Lorentz factor of γ=6.1{sub −0.8}{sup +1.1}, and that most are seen within 10° of the jet axis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Planck 2015 results: XVII. Constraints on primordial non-Gaussianity

We report that the Planck full mission cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and E-mode polarization maps are analysed to obtain constraints on primordial non-Gaussianity (NG). Using three classes of optimal bispectrum estimators – separable template-fitting (KSW), binned, and modal – we obtain consistent values for the primordial local, equilateral, and orthogonal bispectrum amplitudes, quoting as our final result from temperature alone ƒ local NL = 2.5 ± 5.7, ƒ equil NL = -16 ± 70, , and ƒ ortho NL = -34 ± 32 (68% CL, statistical). Combining temperature and polarization data we obtain ƒ local NL = 0.8 ± 5.0, ƒ equil NL = -4 ± 43, and ƒ ortho NL = -26 ± 21 (68% CL, statistical). The results are based on comprehensive cross-validation of these estimators on Gaussian and non-Gaussian simulations, are stable across component separation techniques, pass an extensive suite of tests, and are consistent with estimators based on measuring the Minkowski functionals of the CMB. The effect of time-domain de-glitching systematics on the bispectrum is negligible. In spite of these test outcomes we conservatively label the results including polarization data as preliminary, owing to a known mismatch of the noise model in simulations and the data. Beyond estimates of individual shape amplitudes, we present model-independent, three-dimensional reconstructions of the Planck CMB bispectrum and derive constraints on early universe scenarios that generate primordial NG, including general single-field models of inflation, axion inflation, initial state modifications, models producing parity-violating tensor bispectra, and directionally dependent vector models. We present a wide survey of scale-dependent feature and resonance models, accounting for the “look elsewhere” effect in estimating the statistical significance of features. We also look for isocurvature NG, and find no signal, but we obtain constraints that improve significantly with the inclusion of polarization. The primordial trispectrum amplitude in the local model is constrained to be g local NL = (-0.9 ± 7.7 ) X 10 4 (68% CL statistical), and we perform an analysis of trispectrum shapes beyond the local case. The global picture that emerges is one of consistency with the premises of the ΛCDM cosmology, namely that the structure we observe today was sourced by adiabatic, passive, Gaussian, and primordial seed perturbations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

FRONTIER FIELDS: HIGH-REDSHIFT PREDICTIONS AND EARLY RESULTS

The Frontier Fields program is obtaining deep Hubble and Spitzer Space Telescope images of new ''blank'' fields and nearby fields gravitationally lensed by massive galaxy clusters. The Hubble images of the lensed fields are revealing nJy sources (AB mag > 31), the faintest galaxies yet observed. The full program will transform our understanding of galaxy evolution in the first 600 million years (z > 9). Previous programs have yielded a dozen or so z > 9 candidates, including perhaps fewer than expected in the Ultra Deep Field and more than expected in shallower Hubble images. In this paper, we present high-redshift (z > 6) number count predictions for the Frontier Fields and candidates in three of the first Hubble images. We show the full Frontier Fields program may yield up to ∼70 z > 9 candidates (∼6 per field). We base this estimate on an extrapolation of luminosity functions observed between 4 < z < 8 and gravitational lensing models submitted by the community. However, in the first two deep infrared Hubble images obtained to date, we find z ∼ 8 candidates but no strong candidates at z > 9. We defer quantitative analysis of the z > 9 deficit (including detection completeness estimates) to future work including additional data. At these redshifts, cosmic variance (field-to-field variation) is expected to be significant (greater than ±50%) and include clustering of early galaxies formed in overdensities. The full Frontier Fields program will significantly mitigate this uncertainty by observing six independent sightlines each with a lensing cluster and nearby blank field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Neural Networks to Find the Optimal Forcing for Offsetting the Anthropogenic Climate Change Effects

Abstract Of great relevance to climate engineering is the systematic relationship between the radiative forcing to the climate system and the response of the system, a relationship often represented by the linear response function (LRF) of the system. However, estimating the LRF often becomes an ill-posed inverse problem due to high-dimensionality and nonunique relationships between the forcing and response. Recent advances in machine learning make it possible to address the ill-posed inverse problem through regularization and sparse system fitting. Here, we develop a convolutional neural network (CNN) for regularized inversion. The CNN is trained using the surface temperature responses from a set of Green’s function perturbation experiments as imagery input data together with data sample densification. The resulting CNN model can infer the forcing pattern responsible for the temperature response from out-of-sample forcing scenarios. This promising proof of concept suggests a possible strategy for estimating the optimal forcing to negate certain undesirable effects of climate change. The limited success of this effort underscores the challenges of solving an inverse problem for a climate system with inherent nonlinearity. Significance Statement Predicting the climate response for a given climate forcing is a direct problem, while inferring the forcing for a given desired climate response is often an inverse, ill-posed, problem, posing a new challenge to the climate community. This study makes the first attempt to infer the radiative forcing for a given target pattern of global surface temperature response using a deep learning approach. The resulting deeply trained convolutional neural network inversion model shows promise in capturing the forcing pattern corresponding to a given surface temperature response, with a significant implication on the design of an optimal solar radiation management strategy for curbing global warming. This study also highlights the technical challenges that future research should prioritize in seeking feasible solutions to the inverse climate problem.

Ren, Huiying↗