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At least 775 records · Page 43
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1978

Utilizing the dust streak-dryline intersection phenomenon in severe local storm forecasting

Several characteristics of a major dust storm on 20 February 1976 are presented. Four primary areas of discussion are considered: dust storm characteristics; comparisons between the cell detection capabilities of the geosynchronous satellite and radar; the use of the NASA Atmospheric and Oceanographic Information Processing System (an interactive image processing system) for interactive display of visual and IR digital data to obtain qualitative and quantitative results on specific dust cloud and cloud top characteristics; and evidence that the intersection downwind of dust clouds (streaks) with the dryline can be used to forecast the initial storm development on the dryline and that the dust clouds detected on 20 February 1976 are a reflection of upper tropospheric speed maxima, which according to McNulty (1978) and others, are associated with rapid severe convective local storm development.

Anthony, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Spiral sunspots and solar activity forecasts

The definition of a spiral sunspot is given. Three examples are described which illustrate the processes of the occurrence of spiral sunspots and the roles played by them in prominence and flare activities. A method for solar activity forecasts is then proposed making use of parameters such as spiral sunspots, prominences and neutral lines.

You-Ji, D.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Long-term forecasting of solar activity

Corrections to the forecast of the basic parameters of the 21st cycle are described. Estimates about the level of solar activity in the 22nd cycle are presented.

Zhen-Tao, X.↗
NASA NTRS1979

A disturbance forecaster's view of the September 1977 events

The solar-geophysical events of 1977 September 7-26 are presented. A variety of disturbance forecasting problems, viz, disc transit of a center of activity with high microwave flux but relatively low meter-wave flux, flares in this region near east limb, central meridian, and west limb with major radio events, and the presence of two coronal holes, were observed. The Sydney daily GEOSYD message and IPS Disturbance Warnings issued during this period are related to the solar geophysical data available, at the time, about these events.

Cook, F. E.↗
NASA NTRS1979

PROPHET: An applicaton of propagation forecasting principles

A propagation assessment and forecasting terminal, PROPHET, is described. The terminal is a key element of the environmental prediction and assessment system which uses real time solar/geophysical data to provide real time knowledge of propagation conditions. The terminal uses models to translate data from satellite and ground based sources into performance predictions for specific systems.

Argo, P. E.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Geophysical forecasting at AFGWC

Methods for forecasting the state of the space environment, Sun, interplanetary field, magnetosphere, and ionosphere are discussed. Areas requiring scientific advancements to support the increasing operational requirements of systems that use or are affected by the environment above 50 km are identified.

Thompson, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Solar forecast and real-time monitoring needs of the Study of Energy Release in Flares (SERF)

Complementary, simultaneous observations of flares from as many observatories, both ground based and orbiting, as possible planned for the Solar Maximum Year are considered. The need for forecasts of solar activity on long term, one week, and two day intervals is described. Real time reporting is not needed, but daily summaries of activity and permanent records are important.

Rust, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS1979

On the approach to forecasting polar ionospheric conditions

The major properties of polar ionospheric main anomalous events are summarized. The monitoring of large scale features of the ionization distribution that are the projections of large scale structural characteristics of magnetospheric plasma on the upper ionosphere is suggested as a basic principle of polar ionospheric condition forecasting. It is concluded that the processes of the magnetosphere/ionosphere interaction appear to play a predominant role in the creation of the polar ionosphere.

Besprozvannaya, A. S.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Use of satellite data in runoff forecasting in the heavily forested, cloud-covered Pacific Northwest

The author has identified the following significant results. Satellite-derived snow cover data improves forecasts of stream flow but not at a statistically significant amount and should not be used exclusively because of persistent cloud cover. Based upon reconstruction runs, satellite data can be used to augment snow-flight data in the Upper Snake, Boise, Dworshak, and Hungry Horse basins. Satellite data does not compare well with aerial snow-flight data in the Libby basin.

Dillard, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Effects of sounding temperature assimilation on weather forecasting - Model dependence studies

In comparing various methods for the assimilation of remote sounding information into numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, the problem of model dependence for the different results obtained becomes important. The paper investigates two aspects of the model dependence question: (1) the effect of increasing horizontal resolution within a given model on the assimilation of sounding data, and (2) the effect of using two entirely different models with the same assimilation method and sounding data. Tentative conclusions reached are: first, that model improvement as exemplified by increased resolution, can act in the same direction as judicious 4-D assimilation of remote sounding information, to improve 2-3 day numerical weather forecasts. Second, that the time continuous 4-D methods developed at GLAS have similar beneficial effects when used in the assimilation of remote sounding information into NWP models with very different numerical and physical characteristics.

Ghil, M.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Analysis of regression methods for solar activity forecasting

The paper deals with the potential use of the most recent solar data to project trends in the next few years. Assuming that a mode of solar influence on weather can be identified, advantageous use of that knowledge presumably depends on estimating future solar activity. A frequently used technique for solar cycle predictions is a linear regression procedure along the lines formulated by McNish and Lincoln (1949). The paper presents a sensitivity analysis of the behavior of such regression methods relative to the following aspects: cycle minimum, time into cycle, composition of historical data base, and unnormalized vs. normalized solar cycle data. Comparative solar cycle forecasts for several past cycles are presented as to these aspects of the input data. Implications for the current cycle, No. 21, are also given.

Lundquist, C. A.↗
NASA NTRS1980

The impact of satellite soundings on the National Meteorological Center's Analysis and Forecast System - The data systems test results

Parallel analyses produced with (SAT) and without (NOSAT) the sounding data from the experimental Nimbus-6 and operational NOAA-4 satellites for two data system test periods have indicated that satellite soundings had little impact on forecast through 72 h over the Northern Hemisphere. The effect of remote temperature sounding was generally small and of inconsistent sign, i.e. beneficial in some cases, harmful in others. These positive and negative contributions averaged slightly positive for test period 6 and slightly negative for test period 5. Because of the inconsistency in sign, neither result is much of meteorological consequence. There were, however, systematic differences between the SAT and NOSAT mode analysis: the amplitude of weather systems was consistently less in the SAT mode. The reduced amplitude reflects a tendency for the satellite temperature retrievals to underestimate the spatial variance in the thermal structure of the atmosphere.

Tracton, M. S.↗
NASA NTRS1979

The effect of accuracy, conservation and filtering on numerical weather forecasting

Considerations leading to the numerical design of the GLAS fourth-order global atmospheric model are discussed, including changes recently introduced into the model. The computation time and memory requirements for the fourth-order model are similar to those of the present second-order GLAS model with the same 4 deg latitude, 5 deg longitude, and 9 vertical-level resolution. However, the fourth-order model forecast skill is significantly better than that of the current GLAS model, and after three days it is comparable to the 2.5 by 3 deg version of the GLAS model in the sea level pressure maps, and has less phase errors in the 500 mb maps.

Kalnay-Rivas, E.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Clear air turbulence forecasting techniques

A method to improve clear air turbulence (CAT) forecasting by more effectively using the currently operational rawinsonde (RW) system is discussed. The method is called the Diagnostic Richardson Number Tendency (DRT) technique. The technique does not attempt to use the RW as a direct detector of the turbulent motion or even of the CAT mechanism structure but rather senses the synoptic scale centers of action which provide the energy to the CAT mechanism at the mesoscale level. The DRT algorithm is deterministic rather than statistical in nature, using the hydrodynamic equations (equations of motion) relevant to the synoptic scale. However, interpretation, by necessity, is probabilistic. What is most important with respect to its operational implementation is that this method uses the same input data as currently used by the operational National Meteorological Center prognostic models.

Keller, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Simulation studies of the application of SEASAT data in weather and state of sea forecasting models

The design and analysis of SEASAT simulation studies in which the error structure of conventional analyses and forecasts is modeled realistically are presented. The development and computer implementation of a global spectral ocean wave model is described. The design of algorithms for the assimilation of theoretical wind data into computers and for the utilization of real wind data and wave height data in a coupled computer system are presented.

Cardone, V. J.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Forecast of future aviation fuels: The model

A conceptual models of the commercial air transportation industry is developed which can be used to predict trends in economics, demand, and consumption. The methodology is based on digraph theory, which considers the interaction of variables and propagation of changes. Air transportation economics are treated by examination of major variables, their relationships, historic trends, and calculation of regression coefficients. A description of the modeling technique and a compilation of historic airline industry statistics used to determine interaction coefficients are included. Results of model validations show negligible difference between actual and projected values over the twenty-eight year period of 1959 to 1976. A limited application of the method presents forecasts of air tranportation industry demand, growth, revenue, costs, and fuel consumption to 2020 for two scenarios of future economic growth and energy consumption.

Ayati, M. B.↗
NASA NTRS1980

AgRISTARS: Foreign commodity production forecasting. Minutes of the annual formal project manager's review, including preliminary technical review reports of FY80 experiments

The U.S./Canada wheat/barley exploratory experiment is discussed with emphasis on labeling, machine processing using P1A, and the crop calendar. Classification and the simulated aggregation test used in the U.S. corn/soybean exploratory experiment are also considered. Topics covered regarding the foreign commodity production forecasting project include: (1) the acquisition, handling, and processing of both U.S. and foreign agricultural data, as well as meteorological data. The accuracy assessment methodology, multicrop sampling and aggregation technology development, frame development, the yield project interface, and classification for area estimation are also examined.

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