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DOE OSTI2023

Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change

Detection and attribution (D&A) of forced precipitation change are challenging due to internal variability, limited spatial, and temporal coverage of observational records and model uncertainty. These factors result in a low signal-to-noise ratio of potential regional and even global trends. Here, we use a statistical method – ridge regression – to create physically interpretable fingerprints for the detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation with a high signal-to-noise ratio. The fingerprints are constructed using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model output masked to match coverage of three gridded precipitation observational datasets – GHCNDEX, HadEX3, and GPCC – and are then applied to these observational datasets to assess the degree of forced change detectable in the real-world climate in the period 1951–2020. We show that the signature of forced change is detected in all three observational datasets for global metrics of mean and extreme precipitation. Forced changes are still detectable from changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation even if the global mean trend is removed from the data. This shows the detection of forced change in mean and extreme precipitation beyond a global mean trend is robust and increases confidence in the detection method's power as well as in climate models' ability to capture the relevant processes that contribute to large-scale patterns of change. We also find, however, that detectability depends on the observational dataset used. Not only coverage differences but also observational uncertainty contribute to dataset disagreement, exemplified by the times of emergence of forced change from internal variability ranging from 1998 to 2004 among datasets. Furthermore, different choices for the period over which the forced trend is computed result in different levels of agreement between observations and model projections. These sensitivities may explain apparent contradictions in recent studies on whether models under- or overestimate the observed forced increase in mean and extreme precipitation. Lastly, the detection fingerprints are found to rely primarily on the signal in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, which is at least partly due to observational coverage but potentially also due to the presence of a more robust signal in the Northern Hemisphere in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Implication of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on compound precipitation and temperature extremes in Africa

Three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models that simulated the G4 experiment of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) were used to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on combined temperature and precipitation extremes in Africa that can have greater negative impacts on human and the environment than individual rainfall or temperature extremes. The examined compound extremes included the dry (R warm|dry and R cold|dry ) and wet (R warm|wet and R cold|wet ) modes assessed during the injection (SAI, 2050-2069) and post-injection (postSAI, 2070-2089) periods compared with the historical period (1986-2005). We found a significant projected change in the occurrence of both wet and dry modes during SAI and postSAI related to the historical period. The magnitude and sign of this change depend on the season and the geographical location. During the SAI and postSAI, the wet (R warm|wet and R cold|wet ) modes are projected to be significantly lower while the dry modes are noted to increase in a large part of African continent depending on the season and the geographical location and may consequently leads to an increase of the droughts prone areas. Furthermore, the termination effect is noted to re duce the occurrence of dry modes, which may reduce the potential negative effects of the injection after halting. As the effect may vary from one region to another and according to the season, it suggested assessing the key sector impacts of SAI. Thus, this change in dry modes due to SAI could affect all activities which depend on water resources such as water supply, agriculture and food production, energy demand, and production with adverse effects on health, security, and sustainable development, but this needs to be assessed and quantified at regional scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Climate impacts in scenarios: time to close the loop?

Reaching a full understanding of the consequences of climate change for society and ecosystems, and the ensuing needs for adaptation, requires a consideration of the interactions between human and Earth systems. Currently, however, climate research largely separates the influence of society on climate from the influence of climate on society; that is, it doesn’t “close the loop.” A primary example of this approach is the generation and use of earth system model (ESM) simulations in the climate change research community. Large-scale socio-economic models, known as integrated assessment models (IAMs), are used to project emissions and land use change which serve as input to ESMs. ESM projections then serve as input to models of impacts on society and ecosystems. But, according to this modeling chain, those impacts do not affect the emissions and land use that drove the ESMs in the first place. Previous work has not drawn firm conclusions on whether this feedback would be large enough to warrant explicitly accounting for it. Two prominent possibilities, however, are that emissions and land use scenarios representing the high and low ends of the plausible range of future climate change are both too extreme. The high-end scenario may miss damaging impacts that would reduce economic activity, and therefore emissions, while the low-end scenario may ignore climate feedbacks that would make large-scale land-based carbon removal ineffective and therefore would hamper mitigation at the level assumed by the scenario. In this piece, we identify the opportunities and challenges that implementing such feedback loops would face. We argue that recent developments in climate impact research, human system modeling and ESM emulation make the time ripe to use IAMs in a structured model intercomparison exercise. Model intercomparison projects have benefitted the climate modeling community for decade snow, and more recently have also benefitted the impact modeling community. An IAM intercomparison focused on integrating impacts could make large strides in testing the implications of these feedbacks and assessing whether closing the loop would fundamentally change our outlook on future climate changes and their consequences.

Tebaldi, Claudia↗

DOE OSTI2021

First detection of VHE gamma-ray emission from TXS 1515–273, study of its X-ray variability and spectral energy distribution

ABSTRACT We report here on the first multiwavelength (MWL) campaign on the blazar TXS 1515–273, undertaken in 2019 and extending from radio to very-high-energy gamma-rays (VHE). Up until now, this blazar had not been the subject of any detailed MWL observations. It has a rather hard photon index at GeV energies and was considered a candidate extreme high-synchrotron-peaked source. MAGIC observations resulted in the first-time detection of the source in VHE with a statistical significance of 7.6σ. The average integral VHE flux of the source is 6 ± 1 per cent of the Crab nebula flux above 400 GeV. X-ray coverage was provided by Swift-XRT, XMM–Newton, and NuSTAR. The long continuous X-ray observations were separated by ∼9 h, both showing clear hour scale flares. In the XMM–Newton data, both the rise and decay time-scales are longer in the soft X-ray than in the hard X-ray band, indicating the presence of a particle cooling regime. The X-ray variability time-scales were used to constrain the size of the emission region and the strength of the magnetic field. The data allowed us to determine the synchrotron peak frequency and classify the source as a flaring high, but not extreme synchrotron-peaked object. Considering the constraints and variability patterns from the X-ray data, we model the broad-band spectral energy distribution. We applied a simple one-zone model, which could not reproduce the radio emission and the shape of the optical emission, and a two-component leptonic model with two interacting components, enabling us to reproduce the emission from radio to VHE band.

Acciari, V. A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Penetrating power in radiography of high-Z materials as a function of bremsstrahlung spectrum endpoint energy

A modified radiographer’s equation is derived and fitted to simulation data so as to describe the increase in radiographic signal that comes with increasing bremsstrahlung spectrum endpoint energy. The dose contained in the incident spectrum follows an E28 power law, as often cited. However, the direct flux penetrating through a heavy, high-Z material, obeys a weaker scaling due to hardening of the radiation. The resultant expression depends on the thickness of the scene being radiographed, the composition of high-Z materials in the scene, and any filtering by other low-Z materials, such as Al or Be. The expression exhibits two asymptotic limits: a ‘thick’ limit at which radiation is extremely hardened and only a weak benefit to increasing endpoint energy is observed (also the most attenuating limit and therefore of dubious physical significance), and a ‘thin’ limit at which a minimum of high-Z material is present and the penetrating dose exhibits the 2.8 power scaling inherent in the incident spectrum. Behavior for intermediate thicknesses of W and Al are obtained by modeling incident and attenuated dose using the DOSECALC code and the Bayes’ Inference Engine (BIE). These data guide the optimization of MeV radiography over a wide range of energies where pair production plays a significant role in photon scattering.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Contaminant Transport Modeling for Technology Evaluation and Long-Term Monitoring in the Tims Branch Testbed, SC - 20343

Studies conducted at U.S. DOE sites have shown the presence of heavy metals, radionuclides, and volatile organic compounds in surface water, groundwater, and soil as a result of nuclear activity in the Cold War era. Since the 1990's, innovative cleanup methods have been implemented in the Tims Branch watershed at Savannah River Site (SRS) to limit the contaminant flux to the stream that have reduced the contaminant concentrations to acceptable regulatory levels in the dissolved phase. A tin-based treatment which effectively eliminated all local anthropogenic mercury inputs to this ecosystem resulted in a known step function addition of inert tin oxide particles which now serve as a potential tracer for sedimentation and particle transport processes in the stream. The long-term effectiveness of this and other remediation techniques and the potential for remobilization of adsorbed contaminant in sediment during extreme hydrologic conditions however remains unclear. It is therefore important to understand not only the fate and transport of dissolved contaminants, but also the movement of sediment and the relevant interactions with dissolved contaminant. To narrow this knowledge gap, a study is being conducted using the Tims Branch watershed as a stream-scale ecosystem test-bed to identify the primary transport processes of major contaminants of concern (such as mercury, nickel and uranium) with an emphasis on interactions with sediment transport. This involves the development of a fully distributed hydrologic watershed model of the Tims Branch watershed to predict streamflow under extreme weather conditions, as well as the development of a comprehensive contaminant transport model that can properly account for coupled contaminant and sediment transport. Review of relevant research reports and peer-reviewed journals revealed that aside from advection-dispersion transport of dissolved contaminants, adsorption and desorption with suspended solids and bed sediment also play an important role in the transport of those contaminants of concern. To develop the fully distributed hydrologic watershed model, the MIKE SHE 2-dimensional (2D) land surface/3D groundwater model that simulates surface/subsurface hydrologic processes (such as overland flow, evapotranspiration, and infiltration) was coupled with a 1D streamflow model that accounts for stream water hydraulics (such as hydraulic structures, cross-sections, and network). To model contaminant transport, the MIKE 11 streamflow component was coupled with the MIKE 11 AD module that simulates solute transport through advection and dispersion, and MIKE ECO Lab module that accounts for both sediment transport and interactions with dissolved contaminant. At this stage, the development and optimization of the fully distributed hydrologic model has been completed, achieving satisfactory statistical results between observed and predicted discharge as indicated by a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.039 cms and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) of 0.764. The ongoing development of the contaminant transport model has also yielded realistic results from preliminary tests. Results from this study are a key to evaluating the effectiveness of tin (II)-based mercury treatment of wetlands at the SRS site, and are also relevant to evaluating the potential of using this type of novel remediation technology in other mercury-contaminated stream systems. Knowledge acquired from this research will also support interpretation of historical data on the trends of contaminant concentration distribution in Tims Branch, particularly considering the effect of extreme hydrological events on the stream flow and pollutant transport. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2026

Extremized nonlinear and linearized responses in soft metamaterials enabled by gradient-based design and grayscale digital light processing

In this study, we develop a gradient-based design approach that exploits grayscale digital light processing (DLP) 3D printing for extremizing the nonlinear and linearized response of soft metamaterials — materials that harness engineered geometric instabilities to undergo large and programmable changes in configuration. Grayscale DLP approaches modulate local mechanical properties at the pixel scale by tuning the light intensity within a single grayscale image, unlocking an exceptionally large design space. To effectively navigate this space, we develop smooth mappings between local light intensity values and global quantities of interest that characterize the behavior of soft metamaterials. Enabling these smooth mappings are robust and differentiable nonlinear finite element simulations powered by a trust region solver. A PDE-constrained optimization problem is then solved to invert these mappings and produce light intensity distributions that endow the printed part with varying stiffness and flexibility in distinctive regions. It is shown that optimizing the distribution of soft and stiff phases throughout a metamaterial structure results in markedly different buckling and self-contact configurations to drive extremized nonlinear compression and linearized vibration responses. Optimized light intensity distributions are translated to grayscale images and directly used to print soft metamaterial samples, showing remarkable agreement between the buckling and self-contact response in simulated and measured deformed configurations.

Additive manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2020

Advanced Mixed Waste Treatment Project Overcomes Challenges to Complete Treatment of Debris Waste - 20616

The Advanced Mixed Waste Treatment Project (AMWTP), operated by Fluor Idaho for the Department of Energy Idaho Operations Office, completed the last of its debris waste treatment in the fall of 2019. Concluding that work-scope was certainly not without its challenges. Fluor Idaho and its employees had to adapt to treating extremely challenging waste types, such as high-fissile gram materials and potentially pyrophoric and reactive wastes coming down the stretch. It also had to complete the sizing of large waste boxes from Mound Laboratories in inner-contamination enclosures designed to capture the extremely fine, 'flighty' plutonium-238 in its high-efficiency particulate air filters. Very few waste treatment facilities in the DOE Complex have completed their missions. In fact, most large-scale waste treatment facilities are still under construction with many months or years remaining before 'hot operations' begin. AMWTP is unique because it functioned as a 'one-stop shop.' Transuranic and low-level waste characterization, treatment, certification, and shipping all occurred there. AMWTP concluded the most challenging part of its mission and will continue to ship material out of the state of Idaho for the next decade. This paper will provide a background of the AMWTP mission, and the adaptations to its operating permit, equipment, or treatment processes to address challenging waste types. AMWTP will leave behind a legacy of being one of the most successful waste treatment facilities in the history of the DOE Complex. The facility was well-conceived, well-constructed, and well-executed; it was done right from start to finish. During the course of its waste treatment mission, the facility was required to adapt to changing conditions by treating extremely challenging waste types. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Boundary characterization using 3D mapping of geometrically necessary dislocations in AM Ta microstructure

Additive manufacturing (AM) of high strength metallic materials produces microstructures and defects that deviate substantially from those created through conventional manufacturing methods. It has recently been demonstrated that with application of extreme energy densities, a high-temperature refractory metal, tantalum (Ta), can be printed to a fully dense state with exceptionally low porosity. Here we employ a combination of three-dimensional electron backscattered diffraction (EBSD) TriBeam technology and crystallographic geometrically necessary dislocation (GND) theory to characterize the microstructure and defect boundaries of this unusual AM product. Two-dimensional (2D) EBSD and these three-dimensional (3D) measurements indicate that the microstructure of AM Ta is highly oriented <111> along the build direction, yet at the same time contains large crystallographic orientation gradients that span mm’s across the build. Crystallographic GND density analysis of the 3D microstructure reveals that highly misoriented subboundaries exist within this strongly textured microstructure that have large dislocation densities of 1×10 16 m –2 , just as large as those comprising the high-angle grain boundaries (HAGBs) in the same material. The 3D crystallographic GND density mapping reveals these subboundaries are part of a complex, finely spaced network that extends throughout the entire microstructure. Here, the orientation of these boundaries can be related to the scan strategy used during printing. TEM measurements corroborate an extremely high dislocation density at the microscale and indicate a cell-like dislocation network structure existing in the AM Ta at the sub-μm scale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enrichment by the first stars in a relic dwarf galaxy

Stars that contain trace amounts of elements heavier than helium (that is, ‘metallicity’) preserve the chemical fingerprints of the first stars. In the Milky Way, nearly all of the lowest-metallicity stars show an extreme over-abundance of carbon. The origin of this signature has remained a mystery owing to the lack of observational constraints on the environments in which it originates. Here, in this work, we present observations of a star in the >10-billion-year-old ultrafaint dwarf galaxy Pictor II, showing the lowest iron and calcium abundances outside the Milky Way (<1/43,000th solar and ~1/160,000th solar), with >3,000× relative carbon enhancement. The star’s exceptional paucity in iron and calcium make it clearly preserve enrichment from the first stars in a relic dwarf galaxy; Pictor II is one of the smallest, most chemically primordial systems known. This star supports the hypothesis that extreme carbon enhancement results from low-energy supernovae from the first stars, as the yields of energetic supernovae are harder to retain in small-scale environments. This signature of enrichment by the first stars may trace a regime inaccessible to current high-redshift observations, which can hardly detect the initial enrichment of the smallest galaxies.

chemical evolution↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring dark forces with multimessenger studies of extreme mass ratio inspirals

Abstract The exploration of dark sector interactions via gravitational waves (GWs) from binary inspirals has been a subject of recent interest. We study dark forces using extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs), pointing out two issues of interest. Firstly, the innermost stable circular orbit (ISCO) of the EMRI, which sets the characteristic length scale of the system and hence the dark force range to which it exhibits enhanced sensitivity, probes force mediator masses that complement those studied with supermassive black hole (SMBH) or neutron star binaries. The LISA mission (the proposedμAres detector) will probe mediators with massesm V ∼ 10 -16 eV (m V ∼ 10 -18 eV), corresponding to ISCOs of 10 6 M ⊙ (10 8 M ⊙ ) central SMBHs. Secondly, while the sensitivity to dark couplings is typically limited by the uncertainty in the binary component masses, independent mass measurements of the central SMBH through reverberation mapping campaigns or the motion of dynamical tracers enable one to break this degeneracy. Our results therefore highlight the necessity for coordinated studies, loosely referred to as “multimessenger”, between futureμHz- mHz GW observatories and ongoing and forthcoming SMBH mass measurement campaigns, including OzDES-RM, SDSS-RM, and SDSS-V Black Hole Mapper.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Resolving turbulent magnetohydrodynamics: a hybrid operator-diffusion framework

We present a hybrid machine learning framework that combines physics-informed neural operators (PINOs) with score-based generative diffusion models to simulate the full spatio-temporal evolution of two-dimensional, incompressible, resistive magnetohydrodynamic turbulence across a broad range of Reynolds numbers (Re). The framework leverages the equation-constrained generalization capabilities of PINOs to predict coherent, low-frequency dynamics, while a conditional diffusion model stochastically corrects high-frequency residuals, enabling accurate modeling of fully developed turbulence. Trained on a comprehensive ensemble of high-fidelity simulations with Re ϵ {100, 250, 500, 750, 1000, 3000, 10000}, the approach achieves state-of-the-art accuracy in regimes previously inaccessible to deterministic surrogates. At Re = 1000 and 3000, the model faithfully reconstructs the full spectral energy distributions of both velocity and magnetic fields late into the simulation, capturing non-Gaussian statistics, intermittent structures, and cross-field correlations with high fidelity. At extreme turbulence levels (Re = 10 000), it remains the first surrogate capable of recovering the high-wavenumber evolution of the magnetic field, preserving large-scale morphology and enabling statistically meaningful predictions.

Diffusion-Integrated Neural Operators↗

DOE OSTI2023

The haloes and environments of nearby galaxies ( HERON ) – III. A 45-kpc spiral structure in the GLSB galaxy UGC 4599

ABSTRACT We use a 0.7-m telescope in the framework of the Halos and Environments of Nearby Galaxies (HERON) survey to probe low surface brightness (LSB) structures in nearby galaxies. One of our targets, UGC 4599, is usually classified as an early-type galaxy surrounded by a blue ring making it a potential Hoag’s Object analogue. Prior photometric studies of UGC 4599 were focused on its bright core and the blue ring. However, the HERON survey allows us to study its faint extended regions. With an 8-h integration, we detect an extremely faint outer disc with an extrapolated central surface brightness of μ0, d(r) = 25.5 mag arcsec−2 down to 31 mag arcsec−2 and a scale length of 15 kpc. We identify two distinct spiral arms of pitch angle ∼6○ surrounding the ring. The spiral arms are detected out to ∼45 kpc in radius and the faint disc continues to ∼70 kpc. These features are also seen in the GALEX far- and near-ultraviolet bands, in a deep u-band image from the 4.3-m Lowell Discovery Telescope (which reveals inner spiral structure emerging from the core), and in H i. We compare this galaxy to ordinary spiral and elliptical galaxies, giant low surface brightness (GLSB) galaxies, and Hoag’s Object itself using several standard galaxy scaling relations. We conclude that the pseudo-bulge and disc properties of UGC 4599 significantly differ from those of Hoag’s Object and of normal galaxies, pointing toward a GLSB galaxy nature and filamentary accretion of gas to generate its outer disc.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Electronic Origin of Delicate Antiferromagnetism in Fe 𝑥 ⁢NbS 2

Among the family of intercalated transition-metal dichalcogenides (TMDs), Fe 𝑥 ⁢NbS 2 is found to possess unique current-induced resistive switching behaviors, tunable antiferromagnetic states, and a commensurate charge order, all of which are tied to a critical Fe doping of 𝑥 𝑐 = 1/3. However, the electronic origin of such extreme stoichiometry sensitivities remains unclear. Combining angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES) with density functional theory (DFT) calculations, we identify and characterize a dramatic eV-scale electronic restructuring that occurs across the 𝑥𝑐. Moment-carrying Fe 3⁢𝑑 𝑧 2 electrons manifest as narrow bands within 200 meV of the Fermi level, distinct from other transition metal intercalated TMD magnets. These states strongly hybridize with itinerant electrons in the TMD layer and rapidly lose coherence above 𝑥 𝑐 due to correlation-driven effects. This sudden quasiparticle decoherence collapses the Fe-Nb hybridization, which explicitly suppresses the out-of-plane effective Fe-Fe exchange interaction, driving the transformation of the magnetic ground state from an antiferromagnetic stripe phase to a zigzag phase. Furthermore, these observations resemble the exceptional electronic and magnetic sensitivity of strongly correlated systems, and demonstrate that quantifying orbital-specific hybridization via ARPES offers an alternative pathway to evaluate effective magnetic exchange in metallic magnets, complementing inelastic neutron and resonant x-ray scattering probes.

Angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy↗

DOE OSTI2021

Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations for Biological Performance Assessment in Hydropower units (Final Report)

The biological performance assessment (BioPA) toolset developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) estimates the relative biological performance of fish passage at a hydroelectric power turbine unit. The tool is based on the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and fish biological response relationships. The recent release, BioPA-v3, is based on directly computed trajectory and collision of material Lagrangian particles using CFD simulation codes rather than the prior version that relies on Tecplot to compute streamtrace trajectories. Before modifying the toolset, a series of validation tests were performed at the various steps of modification in the toolset. Validation is a critical step of any numerical investigation that reflects the accuracy and reliability of the predicted results. It raises the confidence level of the user to use the modified version of the BioPA toolset. Several test cases were simulated and compared, where available, to observed data. The trajectory and collision of the small spherical and cylindrical particles in a water flume were compared to in-house experiments. The CFD predicted collision rate and flow field compared well with experimental observation for vane array and large cylinder as target bodies. Next, the CFD-predicted flow field and hydraulic performance of a laboratory-scale model of a Francis turbine was also successfully validated. Note that the trajectory of the particles is significantly affected by the flow field in such extreme conditions. In addition to the particle trajectories and flow field, the collision detection method employed in the CFD simulations was also successfully validated. The CFD predicted impact velocity, collision time, velocity, and trajectory of a sphere excellently matched with analytical value for a bouncing ball in the elastic collision. A similar approach was also tested and successfully validated for a collision of sphere with a 45° inclined plane. After successfully validating different cases, the BioPA toolset was modified to use direct output of the CFD prediction and the new version can be used in evaluating biological performance at hydroelectric turbines.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Mu2e Experiment at Fermilab

The Muon-to-Electron-Conversion (Mu2e) Experiment is a high-precision, intensity-frontier experiment being developed at Fermilab that will search for coherent, neutrino-less muon to electron conversion in the presence of an atomic nucleus. Such a process would exhibit charged lepton flavor violation (CLFV), which has not yet been observed. Continuing the search for CLFV, Mu2e will improve the sensitivity by four orders of magnitude over the present limits. In the search for beyond the standard model (BSM) physics, Mu2e is uniquely sensitive to a wide range of models by indirectly probing mass scales up to the energy scale of 10^4 TeV. While muon-to-electron-conversion is permissible in an extension of the standard model through neutrino oscillations, the rate is extremely low at about one event in 10^52. By design, the background for the experiment will be well-understood and kept at a sub-event level, which will mean the observation of muon-to-electron conversion is a dire ct confirmation of BSM physics. The physics motivation, the design, and the current status of the experiment will be presented.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

High throughput exploration of the oxidation landscape in high entropy alloys

We report high entropy alloys (HEAs) have gained interest for structural applications in extreme environments. With a potentially vast chemical and phase space, there are significant opportunities to discover superior performing alloys. Crucial for most high-temperature applications is understanding and mitigating the oxidation behavior of these chemically complex alloys. Most experimental and computational HEA studies have focused on a limited set of compositions and only a fraction these compositions have been characterized for oxidation. We present a high-throughput framework that utilizes density-functional theory (DFT) in concert with a combined machine-learning model and grand-canonical linear programming for assessing phase stability, phase-fraction, chemical activity and high-temperature survivability of arbitrary HEAs. This framework considers temperature dependent contributions to the Gibbs energy of the competing phases arising from short-range order and vibrational entropy. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework by assessing the thermodynamic stability, oxidation behavior, chemical activity, and phase decomposition of body-centered cubic Mo-W-Ta-Ti-Zr refractory HEAs. A total of 51 compositions were analyzed and ranked in order of their survivability based on the Pareto-front analysis. Oxidation was performed at 1373 K on fours samples in air showing the difference in oxidation behavior determined experimentally through scale thickness and their mass changes. The insights on oxidation behavior presented in this work will enable the fast assessment of technologically useful HEAs needed for future structural application in extreme conditions

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hybridizing Machine Learning and Physically-based Earth System Models to Improve Prediction of Multivariate Extreme Events (AI Exploration of Wildland Fire Prediction)

Focal Areas: This project responds to two focal areas identified in the DOE Call for AI4ESP White Papers: 1) Predictive modeling through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, and 2) insights gleaned from complex data using explainable AI and big data analytics. Science Challenge: Large wildland fires (hereafter wildfires) appearing as high-impact compound climate extreme events are closely related to hydroclimate and water cycle extremes that modulate surface fuel supply and combustibility. These compound events have multivariate climatic features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, lightning) and societal drivers (e.g., forest management, land use change, human caused ignitions). Meanwhile, they induce strong feedbacks to the coupled atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere by perturbing regional and global radiation budget as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and water cycles across multiple spatiotemporal scales. The nonlinear interactions between these natural and anthropogenic components of the Earth system are too complex to be completely and adequately represented in today’s Earth system models (ESMs). The inherent stochastic nature of fire activity at all scales further increases the difficulty of its prediction using ESMs that are usually developed from deterministic equations and parameterizations. Besides, concurrence of long-term (decadal to interdecadal) global climate change and fire regime shifts overlapping with short-term (intraseasonal to interannual) variations of regional fire weather and burning activity confound predictability of these compound extreme events. We propose to address the above scientific challenges by using machine learning (ML)-based data-driven modeling techniques to integrate observations and physically-based ESMs’ simulations in a computationally efficient hybrid prediction system. This prediction system is supposed to characterize the wildfire’s sensitivity to climate and exogenous drivers at high resolution (~ 0.25°) on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales providing improved predictability and explainability. We will use the system to help identify: (1) What are the computational elements of a hybrid system needed to predict compound climate extreme events such as global wildfires? (2) What are the key drivers (either natural or anthropogenic) that modulate short-term variations of multivariate fire weather and burning activity over different regions? How can one take advantage of those driver-response relationships to improve the predictability of large wildfires on S2S time scales? (3) What are the underlying physical mechanisms and sources of improved predictability? Which ML techniques are optimal in revealing and adapting these mechanisms?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗