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At least 775 records · Page 43

Sulfate Mineral Formation from Acid-Weathered Phyllosilicates: Implications for the Aqueous History of Mars

Phyllosilicates on Mars are thought to have formed under neutral to alkaline conditions during Mars' earliest Noachian geologic era (approx. 4.1-3.7 Gya). Sulfate formation, on the other hand, requires more acidic conditions which are thought to have occurred later during Mars' Hesperian era (approx. 3.7-3.0 Gya). Therefore, regions on Mars where phyllosilicates and sulfates are found in close proximity to each other provide evidence for the geologic and aqueous conditions during this global transition. Both phyllosilicates and sulfates form in the presence of water and thus give clues to the aqueous history of Mars and its potential for habitability. Phyllosilicates that formed during the Noachian era may have been weathered by the prevailing acidic conditions that characterize the Hesperian. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to characterize the alteration products resulting from acid-sulfate weathered phyllosilicates in laboratory experiments. This study focuses on two phyllosilicates commonly identified with sulfates on Mars: nontronite and saponite. We also compare our results to observations of phyllosilicates and sulfates on Mars to better understand the formation process of sulfates in close proximity to phyllosilicates on Mars and constrain the aqueous conditions of these regions on Mars.

Craig, P. I.↗

Global Ocean Evaporation: How Well Can We Estimate Interannual to Decadal Variability?

Evaporation from the world's oceans constitutes the largest component of the global water balance. It is important not only as the ultimate source of moisture that is tied to the radiative processes determining Earth's energy balance but also to freshwater availability over land, governing habitability of the planet. Here we focus on variability of ocean evaporation on scales from interannual to decadal by appealing to three sources of data: the new MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications -2); climate models run with historical sea-surface temperatures, ice and atmospheric constituents (so-called AMIP experiments); and state-of-the-art satellite retrievals from the Seaflux and HOAPS (Hamburg Ocean-Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite) projects. Each of these sources has distinct advantages as well as drawbacks. MERRA-2, like other reanalyses, synthesizes evaporation estimates consistent with observationally constrained physical and dynamical models-but data stream discontinuities are a major problem for interpreting multi-decadal records. The climate models used in data assimilation can also be run with lesser constraints such as with SSTs and sea-ice (i.e. AMIPs) or with additional, minimal observations of surface pressure and marine observations that have longer and less fragmentary observational records. We use the new ERA-20C reanalysis produced by ECMWF embodying the latter methodology. Still, the model physics biases in climate models and the lack of a predicted surface energy balance are of concern. Satellite retrievals and comparisons to ship-based measurements offer the most observationally-based estimates, but sensor inter-calibration, algorithm retrieval assumptions, and short records are dominant issues. Our strategy depends on maximizing the advantages of these combined records. The primary diagnostic tool used here is an analysis of bulk aerodynamic computations produced by these sources and uses a first-order Taylor series analysis of wind speed, SST, near-surface stability and relative humidity variations around climatology to gauge the importance of these components. We find that the MERRA-2 evaporation record is strongly influenced by the availability of wind speed and humidity from passive microwave imagers beginning in the late 1980s as well as by the SST record. The trend over the period 1980 to present is nearly 10%. AMIP or the ERA-20C trends are much smaller. We find that ENSO-related signals involving both wind speed and thermodynamic variability remain the primary signal in the latter and are confirmed by satellite retrievals. We present uncertainty estimates based on the various data sources and discuss the implications for GEWEX water and energy budget science challenges.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Low NOx Fuel Flexible Combustor Integration Project Overview

The Integrated Technology Demonstration (ITD) 40A Low NOx Fuel Flexible Combustor Integration development is being conducted as part of the NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) Project. Phase 2 of this effort began in 2012 and will end in 2015. This document describes the ERA goals, how the fuel flexible combustor integration development fulfills the ERA combustor goals, and outlines the work to be conducted during project execution.

emission↗

Advanced Model for Extreme Lift and Improved Aeroacoustics (AMELIA)

With the very recent advent of NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project (ERA), which is dedicated to designing aircraft that will reduce the impact of aviation on the environment, there is a need for research and development of methodologies to minimize fuel burn, emissions, and reduce community noise produced by regional airliners. ERA tackles airframe technology, propulsion technology, and vehicle systems integration to meet performance objectives in the time frame for the aircraft to be at a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 4-6 by the year of 2020 (deemed N+2). The proceeding project that investigated similar goals to ERA was NASA's Subsonic Fixed Wing (SFW). SFW focused on conducting research to improve prediction methods and technologies that will produce lower noise, lower emissions, and higher performing subsonic aircraft for the Next Generation Air Transportation System. The work provided in this investigation was a NASA Research Announcement (NRA) contract #NNL07AA55C funded by Subsonic Fixed Wing. The project started in 2007 with a specific goal of conducting a large-scale wind tunnel test along with the development of new and improved predictive codes for the advanced powered-lift concepts. Many of the predictive codes were incorporated to refine the wind tunnel model outer mold line design. The large scale wind tunnel test goal was to investigate powered lift technologies and provide an experimental database to validate current and future modeling techniques. Powered-lift concepts investigated were Circulation Control (CC) wing in conjunction with over-the-wing mounted engines to entrain the exhaust to further increase the lift generated by CC technologies alone. The NRA was a five-year effort; during the first year the objective was to select and refine CESTOL concepts and then to complete a preliminary design of a large-scale wind tunnel model for the large scale test. During the second, third, and fourth years the large-scale wind tunnel model design would be completed, manufactured, and calibrated. During the fifth year the large scale wind tunnel test was conducted. This technical memo will describe all phases of the Advanced Model for Extreme Lift and Improved Aeroacoustics (AMELIA) project and provide a brief summary of the background and modeling efforts involved in the NRA. The conceptual designs considered for this project and the decision process for the selected configuration adapted for a wind tunnel model will be briefly discussed. The internal configuration of AMELIA, and the internal measurements chosen in order to satisfy the requirements of obtaining a database of experimental data to be used for future computational model validations. The external experimental techniques that were employed during the test, along with the large-scale wind tunnel test facility are covered in great detail. Experimental measurements in the database include forces and moments, and surface pressure distributions, local skin friction measurements, boundary and shear layer velocity profiles, far-field acoustic data and noise signatures from turbofan propulsion simulators. Results and discussion of the circulation control performance, over-the-wing mounted engines, and the combined performance are also discussed in great detail.

Subsonic Fixed Wing↗

Insights Into the Aqueous History of Mars from Acid-Sulfate Weathered Phyllosilicates

Phyllosilicates on Mars are thought to have formed during Mars' earliest Noachian geologic era (approx. 4.1-3.7 Ga). Sulfate formation, on the other hand, requires more acidic conditions which are thought to have occurred later during Mars' Hesperian era (approx. 3.7-3.0 Ga). Therefore, regions on Mars where phyllosilicates and sulfates are found in close proximity to each other provide evidence for the aqueous conditions during this global transition. Both phyllosilicates and sulfates form in the presence of water and thus give clues to the aqueous history of Mars and its potential for habitability. Phyllosilicates that formed during the Noachian era would have been weathered by the prevailing acidic conditions that define the Hesperian. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to characterize the alteration products of acid-sulfate weathered phyllosilicates in laboratory experiments, focusing on the Fe/Mg-smectites commonly identified on Mars. We also compare our results to observations of phyllosilicates and sulfates on Mars in regions such as Endeavour Crater and Mawrth Vallis to understand the formation process of sulfates and constrain the aqueous history of these regions.

Craig, P. I.↗

From "Below Dignity" to "Above It All": Origins and Early History of Underwater Neutral Buoyancy Simulation of Weightlessness for EVA Procedures Development and Training

An attempt to clarify some vague memories of underwater studies of astronaut capabilities in space led Dr. John Charles to become acquainted with Sam Mattingly, one of the pioneers in the field, and to greater insights into Mattingly's work simulating Gemini EVAs in the mid-1960s. Charles recounted major accomplishments by Environmental Research Associates (ERA), Mattingly's company for contracting with NASA Langley on several early studies. ERA's work was considered within the context of contemporary efforts to simulate weightlessness and the widespread development of neutral buoyancy facilities after ERA's successful demonstration for Gemini 12.

Charles, John B.↗

Global Ocean Evaporation Increases Since 1960 in Climate Reanalyses: How Accurate Are They?

AGCMs w/ Specified SSTs (AMIPs) GEOS-5, ERA-20CM Ensembles Incorporate best historical estimates of SST, sea ice, radiative forcing Atmospheric "weather noise" is inconsistent with specified SST. Instantaneous Sfc fluxes can be wrong sign (e.g. Indian Ocean Monsoon, high latitude oceans). Averaging over ensemble members helps isolate SST-forced signal. Reduced Observational Reanalyses: NOAA 20CR V2C, ERA-20C, JRA-55C Incorporate observed Sfc Press (20CR), Marine Winds (ERA-20C) and rawinsondes (JRA-55C) to recover much of true synoptic or weather w/o shock of new sat obs. Comprehensive Reanalyses (MERRA-2) Full suite of observational constraints- both conventional and remote sensing. But... substantial uncertainties owing to evolving satellite observing system. Multi-source Statistically Blended OAFlux, LargeYeager Blend reanalysis, satellite, and ocean buoy information. While climatological biases are removed, non-physical trends or variations in components remain. Satellite Retrievals GSSTF3, SeaFlux, HOAPS3... Global coverage. Retrieved near sfc wind speed, & humidity used with SST to drive accurate bulk aerodynamic flux estimates. Satellite inter-calibration, spacecraft pointing variations crucial. Short record ( late 1987-present). In situ Measurements ICOADS, IVAD, Res Cruises VOS and buoys offer direct measurements. Sparse data coverage (esp south of 30S. Changes in measurement techniques (e.g. shipboard anemometer height).

Climate↗

From LIMS to OMPS-LP: Limb Ozone Observations for Future Reanalyses

High vertical resolution and accuracy of ozone data from satellite-borne limb sounders has made them an invaluable tool in scientific studies of the middle and upper atmosphere. However, it was not until recently that these measurements were successfully incorporated in atmospheric reanalyses: of the major multidecadal reanalyses only ECMWF's (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts') ERA (ECMWF Re-Analysis)-Interim/ERA5 and NASA's MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2) use limb ozone data. Validation and comparison studies have demonstrated that the addition of observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on EOS (Earth Observing System) Aura greatly improved the quality of ozone fields in MERRA-2 making these assimilated data sets useful for scientific research. In this presentation, we will show the results of test experiments assimilating retrieved ozone from the Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS, 1978/1979) and Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS-LP, 2012 to present). Our approach builds on the established assimilation methodology used for MLS in MERRA-2 and, in the case of OMPS-LP, extends the excellent record of MLS ozone assimilation into the post-EOS era in Earth observations. We will show case studies, discuss comparisons of the new experiments with MERRA-2, strategies for bias correction and the potential for combined assimilation of multiple limb ozone data types in future reanalyses for studies of multidecadal stratospheric ozone changes including trends.

Wargan, K.↗

Breakthrough Propulsion Study: Assessing Interstellar Flight Challenges and Prospects

Progress toward developing an evaluation process for interstellar propulsion and power options is described. The goal is to contrast the challenges, mission choices, and emerging prospects for propulsion and power, to identify which prospects might be more advantageous and under what circumstances, and to identify which technology details might have greater impacts. Unlike prior studies, the infrastructure expenses and prospects for breakthrough advances are included. This first year's focus is on determining the key questions to enable the analysis. Accordingly, a work breakdown structure to organize the information and associated list of variables is offered. A flow diagram of the basic analysis is presented, as well as more detailed methods to convert the performance measures of disparate propulsion methods into common measures of energy, mass, time, and power. Other methods for equitable comparisons include evaluating the prospects under the same assumptions of payload, mission trajectory, and available energy. Missions are divided into three eras of readiness (precursors, era of infrastructure, and era of breakthroughs) as a first step before proceeding to include comparisons of technology advancement rates. Final evaluation "figures of merit" are offered. Preliminary lists of mission architectures and propulsion prospects are provided.

Marc G. Millis↗

The Influence of Prescribed Boundary Conditions on Near-Surface Temperature over the Arctic in the MERRA-2 Atmospheric Model

An accurate historical record of evolving Arctic conditions is integral to furthering our understanding of climate processes and to providing a foundation for predicting future climate scenarios in northern high latitudes. Atmospheric reanalyses are seen as an important source of information on the recent past for the data-sparse Arctic region. An assessment of near-surface Arctic air temperatures finds significant discrepancies among the various modern reanalyses. An important point is the treatment of surface boundary conditions: specifically, the sea ice cover and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Arctic Ocean. Reanalyses use different methodologies and data sources for SSTs and sea ice concentration boundary forcing. Notably, the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) both use boundary forcing derived from the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) over an extended, overlapping period of time. This allows for an examination of differences between the two systems while both concurrently employ the same fractional sea ice coverage. To further understand these differences, an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations using the MERRA-2 atmospheric model - but without data assimilation - shows considerable differences in Arctic temperatures as compared to reanalyses, particularly in autumn and winter months. Results from the AMIP simulations suggest that the surface representation over sea ice used in the MERRA-2 model provides an intrinsic warm bias and obfuscates Arctic Amplification, an established feature present in observations and reanalyses. An additional ensemble of AMIP-style simulations using the MERRA-2 atmospheric model was performed using boundary conditions derived from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. An in-depth comparison of surface temperatures over the Arctic from the two reanalyses and two AMIP-style ensembles will be presented, along with an assessment of the effects of the varying Arctic temperature time series on the atmospheric general circulation and energy budget.

Collow, Allison B. Marquardt↗

Preface to the Special Collection: Recollections in Space Physics

Space Physics is a comparatively young scientific discipline, tightly linked to the era of satellite based investigations and the discoveries that came with it. As such, we as a community are fortunate to have met, been taught and mentored by, and even become friends with, many of those who were around to witness the birth of, and in many cases establish, our field. Each of these "Pioneers" have remarkable stories to tell. These accounts from the dawn of the space age provide a glimpse into that era of scientific discovery and are an important part of our collective history that deserve to be shared and commemorated. These are stories of perseverance, ingenuity, luck, and sometimes failure. We are fortunate to live in an era in which these distinguished scientists are still with us and able to share their experiences.To commemorate the 100th Anniversary of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), we have solicited a special collection of recollection papers to memorialize these experiences. This is not the first such effort to capture these stories. In 1994 (Vol. 99, No. A10, pp. 19,099-19,212) and again in 1996 (Vol. 101, No. A5, pp. 10,477-10,585) JGRSpace Physics published special sections entitled, "Pioneers of Space Physics," in celebration of AGU's 75th anniversary. Later, in 1997, Gilmore and Spreiter (1997) added a set of recollection papers on the discovery of the magnetosphere. Together, these papers containing personal accounts from the pioneers of the space age covered the period of roughly 1958-1967.It is our great honor to present retrospective papers from several of our distinguished colleagues who contributed significantly to the explosion in understanding of space physics and aeronomy that occurred from roughly 1967-1980. We chose to start at the end of the previous set of recollections and cover the decade of the 1970s, during which our field greatly expanded. It is also a time in which the second generation of space scientists entered the field and made foundational discoveries that continue to define our discipline.As with the previous papers, we asked the authors to "recount some of the events leading to the emergence of space physics and to put the events into a professional as well as personal perspective." (Gombosi et al.,1994). The authors of this special collection of recollections were selected following the same guidelines as the previous efforts. We started from a long list of senior colleagues and narrowed the list to roughly two dozen distinguished scientists based on discipline and geographic balance. Some of our colleagues, when asked, felt they would be unable to devote the time or energy to such a recollection and declined. Sadly,in the intervening 25 years since the original effort, some of our colleagues who were most active during the early years of the space age have passed. Therefore, this new special collection, 25 years after the first one, is timely with the AGU centennial celebrations, but late in fully capturing the stories of the pioneers of space physics. This is unfortunate and we encourage future editors of this journal to commission specialsections of legacy perspectives with a faster cadence than a quarter of a century.

Kepko, Emil L.↗

IMERG Multi-Satellite Products Across Two Decades

The Version 06 Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission products were completed over the last year, capping five years of development since the launch of the GPM Core Observatory, and covering the joint Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and GPM eras with consistently processed algorithms. The U.S. GPM team’s Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) merged precipitation product enforces a consistent intercalibration for all precipitation products computed from individual satellites with the TRMM and GPM Core Observatory sensors as the TRMM- and GPM-era calibrators, respectively, and incorporates monthly surface gauge data in the Final (research) product. Mid-latitude calibrations during the TRMM era necessarily are more approximate because TRMM only covered the latitude band 35°N-S, while GPM covers 65°N-S. Starting in V06, IMERG employs precipitation motion vectors (used to drive the quasi-Lagrangian interpolation, or “morphing”) that are computed by tracking the vertically integrated vapor as analyzed in MERRA2 and GEOS FP. This approach covers the entire globe, expanding coverage beyond the 60°N-S latitude band provided by IR-based vectors in previous versions, although we choose to mask out microwave-based precipitation over snowy/icy surfaces as unreliable. We will provide examples of performance for the V06 IMERG products, including comparison with the long-term record of GPCP and TMPA, showing higher values by about 8% in the latitude band 50°N-S over oceans; diurnal cycle, demonstrating improvement over previous versions; and daily precipitation PDFs for the entire record, showing a shift at the TRMM/GPM boundary, as well as interannual variations. These analyses have important implications for the utility of V06 IMERG data for long-record calculations. Finally, we will review the retirement of the predecessor TMPA multi-satellite dataset.

George J. Huffman↗

VIIRS Deep Blue Aerosol Products Over Land: Extending the EOS Long‐Term Aerosol Data Records

A primary goal of the Deep Blue (DB) project is to create consistent long‐term aerosol data records, suitable for climate studies, using multiple satellite instruments. In order to continue Earth Observing System (EOS)‐era aerosol products into the Joint Polar Satellite System era, we have successfully ported the DB algorithm to process data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). Although the basic structure of the VIIRS algorithm is similar to that for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), many enhancements have been made compared to the MODIS collection 6 (C6) version. Most have also been implemented in the latest MODIS Collection 6.1 (C6.1). For example, a new smoke mask was developed based on the spectral curvature of measured reflectance to distinguish biomass burning smoke from weakly absorbing urban/industrial aerosols. Consequently, a new aerosol‐type flag was added into the VIIRS DB data set. In addition, new dust models have been developed to account for the nonsphericity of mineral dust. As a result, a discontinuity in the retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) of Saharan dust plumes seen in MODIS C6 products near the boundary between North Africa and the Atlantic has been much reduced. We have also evaluated the VIIRS and MODIS Terra/Aqua C6.1 AOD against Aerosol Robotic Network data. VIIRS and MODIS retrievals show similar performance; around 80% of matchups agree with Aerosol Robotic Network within the expected error of ±(0.05 + 20)%, indicating that DB can provide consistent AOD through the historical EOS and present Joint Polar Satellite System eras.

aerosols↗

Exploring Controls on the Fluvial Breaching of Degraded Impact Craters

Many lakes on early Mars were hosted in degraded impact craters. Past work has suggested that landscape erosion and crater degradation were very active prior to the valley network (VN)-forming era on Mars. Rim relief reduction during degradation may have primed craters for subsequent inlet incision during the VN-forming era. However, not all old, rimless craters on Mars are breached, so extensive rim degradation could not have been the only control on VN inlet formation. In this study, we ask: Why were some, but not all, degraded craters breached during the VN-forming era? Here, we focus on testing whether there are any measurable distinctions between VN-breached and non-breached degraded Noachian craters.

E R Bamber↗

Towards an Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS): A Coupled Hydrologic-Hydraulic System for Water Balance Assessments

Effective management of water resources requires reliable estimates of land surface states and fluxes, including water balance components. But most land surface models run in uncoupled mode and do not produce river discharge at catchment scales to be useful for water resources management applications. Such integrated systems are also rare over India where hydrometeorological extremes have wreaked havoc on the economy and people. So, an Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS) with a coupled land surface and a hydrodynamic model has been developed and driven by multiple meteorological forcings (0.1°, daily) to estimate land surface states, channel discharge, and floodplain inundation. ILDAS benefits from an integrated framework as well as the largest suite of observation records collected over India and has been used to produce a reanalysis product for 1981–2021 using four forcing datasets, namely, Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), ECMWF’s ERA-5, and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded precipitation. We assessed the uncertainty and bias in these precipitation datasets and validated all major components of the terrestrial water balance, i.e., surface runoff, soil moisture, terrestrial water storage anomalies, evapotranspiration, and streamflow, against a combination of satellite and in situ observation datasets. Our assessment shows that ILDAS can represent the hydrological processes reasonably well over the Indian landmass with IMD precipitation showing the best relative performance. Evaluation against ESA-CCI soil moisture shows that MERRA-2 based estimates outperform the others, whereas ERA-5 performs best in simulating evapotranspiration when evaluated against MODIS ET. Evaluations against observed records show that CHIRPS-based estimates have the highest performance in reconstructing surface runoff and streamflow. Once operational, this system will be useful for supporting transboundary water management decision making in the region.

Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS)↗

Hybrid Thermally Efficient Core (HyTEC) Phase 1 3-Stage Compressor Rig Final Report - Unlimited Rights

The HyTEC Phase 1 3-Stage Compressor Rig project was conducted to mature and validate front-stage aerodynamic technologies in support of HyTEC Phase 2 and GEA’s Compact Core compressor. Building on the prior ERA Phase 2 Baseline Rig, GEA and NASA collaborated on the design and testing of the HyTEC rig, incorporating advanced technologies such as increased radius ratio, higher aerodynamic loading, and advanced casing treatment. The HyTEC test campaign leveraged similar design and instrumentation philosophy, test execution approach, and the same facility (NASA W-7) to enable clear comparison with the legacy ERA rig results. The HyTEC rig was designed to deliver benefits in efficiency, tip loading, operability, and aeromechanics, with success measured against defined TPMs that were anchored to the ERA baseline rig data.

Axial Compressors↗

Design of a GammaT-Jump System for Fermilab Booster

A $\gamma_{T}$ scheme may be required for the PIP-II era performance or ACE-MIRT era performance of the Booster. PIP-II era operations of the Fermilab proton complex will require the Fermilab Booster to increase beam intensity from 4.5e12 to 6.7e12 protons, while also increasing its ramp from 15 Hz to 20 Hz. These changes pose particular challenges for transition-crossing in the Booster, where longitudinal beam quality must be controlled in order to facilitate slip-stacking in the Recycler Ring later in the Main Injector cycle. Two novel $\gamma_{T}$-jump schemes are proposed, termed Double $\gamma_{T}$ jump and Partial $\gamma_{T}$-jump , which optimize the magnitude of the $\gamma_{T}$-jump within optics and power supply constraints.

Eldred, J. [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000034432072X)↗

Evidence that Horizontal Moisture Advection Regulates the Ubiquitous Amplification of Rainfall Variability over Tropical Oceans

The column moist static energy (MSE) budget equation approximates the processes associated with column moistening and drying in the tropics, and is therefore predictive of precipitation amplification and decay. We use ERA-Interim (ERA-I) and TRMM 3B42 data to investigate day-to-day convective variability and distinguish the roles of horizontal MSE (or moisture) advection versus vertical advection, sources, and sinks. Over tropical convergence zones, results suggest that horizontal moisture advection is a primary driver of day-to-day precipitation fluctuations; when drying via horizontal moisture advection is smaller (greater) than Chikira’s “column process,” precipitation tends to amplify (decay). In the absence of horizontal moisture advection, precipitation tends to increase spontaneously almost universally through a positive column process feedback. This bulk positive feedback is characterized by negative effective gross moist stability (GMS), which is maintained throughout the tropical convergence zones. How this positive feedback is achieved varies geographically, depending on the shape of vertical velocity (omega) profiles. In regions where omega profiles are top-heavy, the effective GMS is negative primarily owing to strong feedbacks between convection and diabatic MSE sources (radiative and surface fluxes). In these regions, vertical MSE advection stabilizes the atmosphere (positive vertical GMS). Where omega profiles are bottom-heavy, by contrast, a positive feedback is primarily driven by import of MSE through a shallow circulation (negative vertical GMS). The diabatic feedback and vertical GMS are in a seesaw balance, offsetting one another. Our results suggest that ubiquitous convective variability is amplified by the same mechanism as moisture-mode instability.

horizontal moisture advection↗