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At least 775 records · Page 43

Physics-Infused AI/ML Based Digital-Twin Framework for Flow-Induced-Vibration Damage Prediction in a Nuclear Reactor Heat Exchanger

This report summarizes some of the ongoing work related to the development of an expert-elicitation-digital-twin framework for real time damage state prediction in heat exchanger components of a nuclear reactor. The framework is targeted towards predicting damage associated with coupled low cycle fatigue (associated with regular heat-up, cool-down and power operation transients) and high cycle fatigue (associated with flow induced vibration transients). The overall framework will be based on a NoSQL based database, physics-infused-geometry-dependent virtual-sensor data, different AI/ML techniques-based data-driven-predictive-model applications (Apps) and real-time plant sensor measurements available through few existing sensors. Towards this overall goal, this report updates some of the ongoing work, such as on implementation of a NoSQL Database (such as MongoDB), FE based heat transfer analysis of a heat exchanger (e.g. of a PWR steam generator) for generating geometry-dependent virtual sensor data and evaluation of various AI/ML models such as based on multivariate linear regression, ensembled decision-tree based Random-Forest and Gradient-Boosting regression and high-dimensional-kernel-function-transformation based Support-Vector-Machine regression models. The AI/ML models were evaluated for predicting multi-time-series thermal states at thousands of 3D point-clouds

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Transfer learning of neural surrogates on multifidelity groundwater simulations

Multifidelity data used in the paper published in Advances in Water Resources 206 (2025) 105140, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.105140 The code used to process the data is openly available on GitHub at https://github.com/Model-Reduction-and-UQ-Group/Transfer_Learning_K_reconstruction Computationally inexpensive surrogates of process-based models, such as deep neural networks, enable ensemble-based computations used in risk assessment, data assimilation, etc. However, generation of large datasets required to train a neural network can be as expensive as the ensemble simulations themselves. We ameliorate this challenge by using data from multifidelity (MF) groundwater simulations and transfer learning (TL) to reduce data generation costs while maintaining model accuracy. As a computational example, we train a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to reconstruct permeability fields from saturation maps derived from a multiphase flow model. Starting with very low- and low-fidelity data generated on increasingly coarse meshes, we pretrain the CNN, followed by output-layer training and fine-tuning using only a limited number of high-fidelity samples. We demonstrate the surrogate’s robustness when interpreting low-quality inputs—such as interpolated maps or data affected by noise—which has strong implications for the applicability in practical hydrogeological scenarios. This multilevel MF-TL strategy achieves a favorable trade-off between computational efficiency and predictive accuracy, significantly outperforming high-fidelity-only approaches under the same computational budget.

Chiofalo, Alessia [University of Bologna] (ORCID:0↗

Global nitrogen and sulfur deposition mapping using a measurement–model fusion approach

Abstract. Global reactive nitrogen (N) deposition has more than tripled since 1860 and is expected to remain high due to food production and fossil fuel consumption. Global sulfur emissions have been decreasing worldwide over the last 30 years, but many regions are still experiencing unhealthily high levels of deposition. We update the 2010 global deposition budget for reactive nitrogen and sulfur components with new regional wet deposition measurements from Asia, improving the ensemble results of 11 global chemistry transport models from the second phase of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe's Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP II). The observationally adjusted global N deposition budget is 114.5 Tg N, representing a minor increase of 1 % from the model-only derived values, and the adjusted global sulfur deposition budget is 88.9 Tg S, representing a 6.5 % increase from the modeled values, using an interpolation distance of 2.5∘. Regionally, deposition adjustments can be up to ∼ 73 % for nitrogen and 112 % for sulfur. Our study demonstrates that a global measurement–model fusion approach can improve N and S deposition model estimates at a regional scale, with sufficient availability of observations; however, in large parts of the world, alternative approaches need to be explored. The analysis presented here represents a step forward toward the World Meteorological Organization's goal of global fusion products for accurately mapping harmful air pollution deposition.

Rubin, Hannah J. (ORCID:0000000182226924)↗

Quantifying Drivers of Methane Hydrobiogeochemistry in a Tidal River Floodplain System

The influence of coastal ecosystems on global greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets and their response to increasing inundation and salinization remains poorly constrained. In this study, we have integrated an uncertainty quantification (UQ) and ensemble machine learning (ML) framework to identify and rank the most influential processes, properties, and conditions controlling methane behavior in a freshwater floodplain responding to recently restored seawater inundation. Our unique multivariate, multiyear, and multi-site dataset comprises tidal creek and floodplain porewater observations encompassing water level, salinity, pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO 2 ), nitrous oxide (pN 2 O), methane (pCH 4 ), and the stable isotopic composition of methane (δ 13 CH 4 ). Additionally, we incorporated topographical data, soil porosity, hydraulic conductivity, and water retention parameters for UQ analysis using a previously developed 3D variably saturated flow and transport floodplain model for a physical mechanistic understanding of factors influencing groundwater levels and salinity and, therefore, CH 4 . Principal component analysis revealed that groundwater level and salinity are the most significant predictors of overall biogeochemical variability. The ensemble ML models and UQ analyses identified DO, water level, salinity, and temperature as the most influential factors for porewater methane levels and indicated that approximately 80% of the total variability in hourly water levels and around 60% of the total variability in hourly salinity can be explained by permeability, creek water level, and two van Genuchten water retention function parameters: the air-entry suction parameter α and the pore size distribution parameter m. These findings provide insights on the physicochemical factors in methane behavior in coastal ecosystems and their representation in local- to global-scale Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pairing Correlations across the Superfluid Phase Transition in the Unitary Fermi Gas

In the two-component Fermi gas with a contact interaction, a pseudogap regime can exist at temperatures between the superfluid critical temperature $T_c$ and a temperature $T^\ast > T_c$. This regime is characterized by pairing correlations without superfluidity. However, in the unitary limit of infinite scattering length, the existence of this regime is still debated. To help address this, we have applied finite-temperature auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo (AFMC) methods to study the thermodynamics of the superfluid phase transition and signatures of the pseudogap in the spin-balanced homogeneous unitary Fermi gas. We present results at finite filling factor $\textit{ν}$ ≃ 0.06 for the condensate fraction, an energy-staggering pairing gap, the spin susceptibility, and the heat capacity, and compare them to experimental data when available. In contrast to previous AFMC simulations, our model space consists of the complete first Brillouin zone of the lattice, and our calculations are performed in the canonical ensemble of fixed particle number. The canonical ensemble AFMC framework enables the calculation of a model-independent gap, providing direct information on pairing correlations without the need for numerical analytic continuation. We use finite-size scaling to estimate $T_c$ at the corresponding filling factor. In this work, we find that the energy-staggering pairing gap vanishes above $T_c$, showing no pseudogap effects, and that the spin susceptibility shows a substantially reduced signature of a spin gap compared to previously reported AFMC simulations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Estuarine hurricane wind can intensify surge-dominated extreme water level in shallow and converging coastal systems

Based on the projected increase in hurricane landfall frequency on the middle to lower US east coast, we examined the crucial role of the estuarine wind field in exacerbating coastal flooding. A regionally refined atmospheric and two high-resolution hydrology and ocean models are integrated to provide plausible and physically consistent ensembles of hurricane events and the associated flooding inside the Delaware Bay and River, a US mid-Atlantic estuary. Model results show that the hurricane propagation direction, estuarine geometry, remote surge from the open ocean, and direct nearshore upwind stress could magnify the flood magnitude. More specifically, inland-bound tracks that make landfall before reaching the mid-Atlantic coast produce a more significant surge within Delaware Bay than the shore-parallel tracks, where the estuarine wind direction plays the primary role in surge amplification. Ultimately, this study emphasized the need for integrated models to capture the nonlinear dynamics and interactions in flood hazard modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scaling whole-chip QAOA for higher-order ising spin glass models on heavy-hex graphs

Abstract We show that the quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) for higher-order, random coefficient, heavy-hex compatible spin glass Ising models has strong parameter concentration across problem sizes from 16 up to 127 qubits for p = 1 up to p = 5, which allows for computationally efficient parameter transfer of QAOA angles. Matrix product state (MPS) simulation is used to compute noise-free QAOA performance. Hardware-compatible short-depth QAOA circuits are executed on ensembles of 100 higher-order Ising models on noisy IBM quantum superconducting processors with 16, 27, and 127 qubits using QAOA angles learned from a single 16-qubit instance using the JuliQAOA tool. We show that the best quantum processors find lower energy solutions up to p = 2 or p = 3, and find mean energies that are about a factor of two off from the noise-free distribution. We show that p = 1 QAOA energy landscapes remain very similar as the problem size increases using NISQ hardware gridsearches with up to a 414 qubit processor.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

An Entropy-Based Test and Development Framework for Uncertainty Modeling in Level-Set Visualizations

We present a simple comparative framework for testing and developing uncertainty modeling in uncertain marching cubes implementations. The selection of a model to represent the probability distribution of uncertain values directly influences the memory use, run time, and accuracy of an uncertainty visualization algorithm. We use an entropy calculation directly on ensemble data to establish an expected result and then compare the entropy from various probability models, including uniform, Gaussian, histogram, and quantile models. Our results verify that models matching the distribution of the ensemble indeed match the entropy. We further show that fewer bins in nonparametric histogram models are more effective whereas large numbers of bins in quantile models approach data accuracy.

Sisneros, Robert↗

Data-driven closure modeling for hypersonic turbulent flows

The Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations remain a workhorse technology for simulating compressible fluid flows of practical interest. Due to model-form errors, however, RANS models can yield erroneous predictions that preclude their use on mission-critical problems. This report summarizes work performed from FY22-FY24 focused on improving RANS models for hypersonic flows using data-driven modeling and scientific machine learning. In this work we: 1. Investigate the current capabilities of RANS models in Sandia’s parallel aerodynamics and re-entry code (SPARC) for hypersonic flows with a focus on shock boundary layer interactions (SBLIs), 2. Assess several established corrections that exist in the literature aimed at improving predictions for SBLIs, 3. Develop improved models for the Reynolds stress tensor using tensor-basis neural networks, 4. Develop a neural-network-based variable turbulent Prandtl number model to reduce errors in wall heating in SBLIs. 5. Begin future investigations including employing the LIFE framework to improve wall heating predictions in SBLIs as well as the ensemble Kalman filter. We find that current RANS models in SPARC are deficient for complex SBLI flows. In particular, no current model jointly predicts wall heat flux, wall shear stress, and wall pressure with reasonable accuracy. Existing corrections help, but do not alleviate this issue altogether. The development of improved models for the Reynolds stress tensor via tensor-basis neural networks results in more predictive RANS models across a suite of low-speed and high-speed cases. For hypersonic boundary layers, the inclusion of the wall-normal Reynolds stress via TBNNs has an appreciable impact on the wall-normal momentum balance and wall quantities. However, we find that improvements to the Reynolds stress tensor do not address the over-prediction in wall heat flux in SBLIs. We find that a neural-network-based variable turbulent Prandtl number model systematically and substantially improves wall heating predictions for a range of SBLI cases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Power System Event Classification and Localization Using a Convolutional Neural Network

Detection and timely identification of power system disturbances are essential for situation awareness and reliable electricity grid operation. Because records of actual events in the system are limited, ensemble simulation-based events are needed to provide adequate data for building event-detection models through deep learning; e.g., a convolutional neural network (CNN). An ensemble numerical simulation-based training data set have been generated through dynamic simulations performed on the Polish system with various types of faults in different locations. Such data augmentation is proven to be able to provide adequate data for deep learning. The synchronous generators’ frequency signals are used and encoded into images for developing and evaluating CNN models for classification of fault types and locations. With a time-domain stacked image set as the benchmark, two different time-series encoding approaches, i.e., wavelet decomposition-based frequency-domain stacking and polar coordinate system-based Gramian Angular Field (GAF) stacking, are also adopted to evaluate and compare the CNN model performance and applicability. The various encoding approaches are suitable for different fault types and spatial zonation. With optimized settings of the developed CNN models, the classification and localization accuracies can go beyond 84 and 91%, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Resolving Dynamics in the Ensemble: Finding Paths through Intermediate States and Disordered Protein Structures

Proteins have been found to inhabit a diverse set of three-dimensional structures. The dynamics that govern protein interconversion between structures happen over a wide range of time scales-picoseconds to seconds. Our understanding of protein functions and dynamics is largely reliant upon our ability to elucidate physically populated structures. From an experimental structural characterization perspective, we are often limited to measuring the ensemble-averaged structure both in the steady-state and time-resolved regimes. Generating kinetic models and understanding protein structure–function relationships require atomistic knowledge of the populated states in the ensemble. Here, we present ensemble refinement methodologies that integrate time-resolved experimental signals with molecular dynamics models. We first discuss integration of experimental structural restraints to molecular models in disordered protein systems that adhere to the principle of maximum entropy for creating a complete set of ensemble structures. We then propose strategies to find kinetic pathways between the refined structures, using time-resolved inputs to guide molecular dynamics trajectories and the use of inference to generate tailored stimuli to prepare a desired ensemble of protein states.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The effects of bias, drift, and trends in calculating anomalies for evaluating skill of seasonal-to-decadal initialized climate predictions

In initialized seasonal to decadal (S2D) predictions, model hindcasts rapidly drift away from the initial observed state and converge toward a preferred state characterized by systematic error, or bias. Bias and drift are among the greatest challenges facing initialized prediction today. Differences in trends between initial states and drifted states, combined with bias and drift, introduce complexities in calculating anomalies to assess skill of initialized predictions. We examine several methods of calculating anomalies using the Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) initialized hindcasts and focus on Pacific and Atlantic SSTs to illustrate issues with anomaly calculations. Three methods of computing anomalies, one as differences from a long term model climatology, another as bias-adjusted differences from the previous 15 year average from observations, and a third as differences from the previous 15 year average from the model, are contrasted and each is shown to have limitations. For the first, trends in bias and drift introduce higher skill estimates earlier and later in the hindcast period due to the trends that contribute to skill. For the second, higher skill can be introduced in situations where low frequency variability in the observations is large compared to the hindcasts on timescales greater than 15 years, while lower skill can result if the predicted signal is small and the bias-correction itself produces a transition of SST anomalies to the opposite sign of those that are observed. The third method has somewhat lower skill compared to each of the others, but has less difficulties with not only the long term trends in the model climatology, but also with the unrealistic situational skill from using observations as a reference. However, the first 15 years of the hindcast period cannot be evaluated due to having to wait to accumulate the previous 15 year model climatology before the method can be applied. Here, the IPO transition in the 2014–2016 time frame from negative to positive (predicted by Meehl et al. in in Nat Commun, 10.1038/NCOMMS11718, 2016) did indeed verify using all three methods, though each provides somewhat different skill values as a result of the respective limitations. There is no clear best method, as all are roughly comparable, and each has its own set of limitations and caveats. However, all three methods show generally higher overall skill in the AMO region compared to the IPO region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Examining the Robustness of Weakened Orographic Influence on Precipitation in Downscaled Climate Projections Over the Western US

Assessing local climate change impacts often requires downscaling coarse global climate model (GCM) output to finer resolution. Two main approaches exist: dynamical downscaling using high-resolution regional climate models, and statistical downscaling based on historical relationships between large-scale and local variables. In a recent analysis of five dynamically downscaled simulations over the western United States, Koszuta et al. (2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl107298) found that warming weakens orographic influence on winter precipitation, damping increases on windward slopes and amplifying them in rain-shadowed regions. Here we show that this effect is robust across seasons and multiple dynamically downscaled ensembles, and is more pronounced at higher model resolutions. However, it is absent in projections from a widely used statistical model (LOCA2), even when trained on high-resolution future simulations (LOCA2-Hybrid). This highlights a key limitation of many statistical downscaling methods: their preservation of parent GCM trends, which usually fail to capture emergent changes in orographic precipitation patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity Study for Forecasting Variables of WRF-Solar Using a Tangent Linear Approach

Integrating solar generation in recent years has highlighted the need for improved accuracy in predicting solar power. Confidence in solar power forecasting can be achieved by designing an ensemble that provides reliable probabilistic information for solar radiation with reduced uncertainty and error. Ideally, ensemble members are created through the optimized perturbation of the initial conditions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Tangent linear models are capable of efficiently investigating the sensitivity of solar radiation to model input parameters because they do not require individual perturbation of each variable. This sensitivity study using tangent linear models provide us the capability to identify the right variables to perturb in an ensemble prediction system. In this study, we developed tangent linear models for WRF-Solar modules that directly impact the computation of solar radiation and the simulation of cloud formation and dissipation including the Fast All-sky Model for Solar Applications (FARMS), the Noah land surface model (LSM), the Thompson microphysics, the Mello-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, and the Deng scheme for a shallow-convection parameterization. A sensitivity analysis was conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) and WRF-Solar, respectively. Critical forecasting variables that are highly sensitive to the forecasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes were determined using the relevant WRF-Solar module. This study will be used as a guidance on future research leading to high-quality probabilistic solar forecasting. In this presentation, we discuss the validation of tangent linear approach for WRF-Solar modules and illustrate how the sensitivity results are valuable in the improvement of probabilistic solar prediction.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Deep learning model for fast, science-based forecasting of fluid migration along faults in geologic carbon storage scenarios

Effective long-term geologic storage depends on robust site selection and credible, science-based forecasting of subsurface behavior to ensure storage integrity. For this work, we develop a deep learning–based reduced-order model (ROM) to quantify potential carbon dioxide (CO₂) and brine migration through geological faults. The ROM combines a Transformer model for binary classification and a Stacked Ensemble for regression, trained on a comprehensive dataset generated from 1400 physics-based reservoir simulations. Key geologic and operational parameters—including fault geometry, reservoir structure, and injection conditions—were systematically varied to capture a wide range of fluid migration scenarios. The ROM accurately predicts the onset of migration, cumulative migration volumes of both CO₂ and brine, and associated migration rates, as compared to an independent set of validation simulations, while significantly reducing computational cost compared to traditional simulation methods. Model performance was evaluated across diverse fault configurations, revealing that shallow reservoir geometry and fault angle are among the most influential factors governing migration behavior. Sensitivity analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided interpretability, revealing distinct patterns in how geological and operational features drive transient versus cumulative migration outcomes. The ROM’s ability to rapidly simulate fault migration scenarios enables efficient sensitivity analyses, scenario evaluations, and decision support for site selection and monitoring design. This approach enhances the safety, scalability, and long-term operational performance of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems by providing a robust, interpretable tool for predicting subsurface fluid migration and assessing fault-related migration potential.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multi-model Hydroclimate Projections for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the Southeastern United States

Abstract This study uses a high-resolution, process-based modeling framework to assess the impacts of changing climate on water resources for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the southeastern United States. A 33-member ensemble of hydrologic projections was generated using 3 distributed hydrologic models (Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, Variable Infiltration Capacity, and Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model) of different complexity. These hydrologic models were driven by dynamically downscaled and bias-corrected future climate simulations from 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emission scenario, with 40 years each in baseline (1966–2005) and future (2011–2050) periods. The hydroclimate response, in general, projects an increase in mean seasonal precipitation, runoff, and streamflow. The high and low flows are projected to increase and decrease, respectively, in general, suggesting increased likelihood of extreme rainfall events and intensification of the hydrologic cycle. The uncertainty associated with the ensemble hydroclimate response, analyzed through an analysis of variance technique, suggests that the choice of climate model is more critical than the choice of hydrologic model for the studied region. This study provides in-depth insights of hydroclimate response and associated uncertainties to support informed decisions by water resource managers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulation of evapotranspiration and yield of maize: An inter-comparison among 41 maize models

Accurate simulation of crop water use (evapotranspiration, ET) can help crop growth models to assess the likely effects of climate change on future crop productivity, as well as being an aid for irrigation scheduling for today's growers. To determine how well maize (Zea mays L.) growth models can simulate ET, an initial inter-comparison study was conducted in 2019 under the umbrella of AgMIP (Agricultural Model Inter-Comparison and Improvement Project). Herein, we present results of a second inter-comparison study of 41 maize models that was conducted using more comprehensive datasets from two additional sites - Mead, Nebraska, USA and Bushland, Texas, USA. There were 20 treatment-years with varying irrigation levels over multiple seasons at both sites. ET was measured using eddy covariance at Mead and using large weighing lysimeters at Bushland. A wide range in ET rates was simulated among the models, yet several generally were able to simulate ET rates adequately. The ensemble median values were generally close to the observations, but a few of the models sometimes performed better than the median. Many of the models that did well at simulating ET for the Mead site did poorly for drier, windy days at the Bushland site, suggesting they need to improve how they handle humidity and wind. Additional variability came from the approaches used to simulate soil water evaporation. Fortunately, several models were identified that did well at simulating soil water evaporation, canopy transpiration, biomass accumulation, and grain yield. These models were older and have been widely used, which suggests that a larger number of users have tested these models over a wider range of conditions leading to their improvement. These revelations of the better approaches are leading to model improvements and more accurate simulations of ET.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Deep Generative Modeling of Periodic Variable Stars Using Physical Parameters

The ability to generate physically plausible ensembles of variable sources is critical to the optimization of time domain survey cadences and the training of classification models on data sets with few to no labels. Traditional data augmentation techniques expand training sets by reenvisioning observed exemplars, seeking to simulate observations of specific training sources under different (exogenous) conditions. Unlike fully theory-driven models, these approaches do not typically allow principled interpolation nor extrapolation. Moreover, the principal drawback of theory-driven models lies in the prohibitive computational cost of simulating source observables from ab initio parameters. In this work, we propose a computationally tractable machine learning approach to generate realistic light curves of periodic variables capable of integrating physical parameters and variability classes as inputs. Our deep generative model, inspired by the transparent latent space generative adversarial networks, uses a variational autoencoder (VAE) architecture with temporal convolutional network layers, trained using the OGLE-III optical light curves and physical characteristics (e.g., effective temperature and absolute magnitude) from Gaia DR2. A test using the temperature–shape relationship of RR Lyrae demonstrates the efficacy of our generative “physics-enhanced latent space VAE” (PELS-VAE) model. Such deep generative models, serving as nonlinear nonparametric emulators, present a novel tool for astronomers to create synthetic time series over arbitrary cadences.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗