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At least 775 records · Page 43

Performance assessment of a real water source heat pump within a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing environment

Over the last decade, the global fight against climate change through electrification has led to an increase in research on building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems that utilize intelligent control algorithms to provide demand-side grid service while also maintaining the thermal comfort of building occupants. As the pivotal point between building electricity consumption and indoor thermal comfort, high-efficiency electrical vapor-compression heat pumps are at the center of these emerging studies, and various grid-interactive and occupant-comfort control algorithms have been developed for them. The impact of these algorithms on heat pump operation and performance when subjected to different weather conditions, building loads, and grid requests calls for investigation and verification via experimental testing with actual heat pumps integrated with real-time building and grid responses. This study introduces a Water-Source Heat Pump (WSHP) Hardware-in-The-Loop (HIL) Test Facility that is the first of its kind. This testbed utilizes a 2-ton variable speed water-to-air heat pump that is capable of interacting with a virtual environment currently comprised of an EnergyPlus (E+) building simulation, an agent-based occupant behavioral model, and a single U-tube ground-loop heat exchanger (GLHE) model. Detailed descriptions of the testbed’s physical design and operation, virtual environment, as well as their mutual communication is provided. An uncertainty analysis is also performed under manufacturer specified heating and cooling design conditions. This analysis shows that the total load across the WSHP’s demand side heat exchanger, i.e., the sum of its latent and sensible components, can be measured with a relative uncertainty of ± 10.4% and ± 3.6% in cooling and heating mode respectively. The WSHP’s coefficient of performance (COP) can be measured with relative uncertainties of ± 10.4% in cooling mode, and ± 3.7% in heating mode. A preliminary 24-h experimental demonstration is then performed utilizing the DOE prototype small commercial office building model in E+. The simulation takes place in Atlanta, GA on the date of 08/26/15 from 12:00 AM to 11:59 PM using TMY3 weather data. Here, the results from this demonstration show that over the course of this experiment the simulated outputs of zone dry-bulb temperature, zone humidity ratio, and WSHP inlet water temperature can be tracked by testbed emulators up to a root mean squared error (RMSE) of ± 0.27 °C, ± 0.376 g/kg, and ± 0.85 °C respectively. The WSHP’s dynamic behavioral characteristics and performance are also captured, and correspond well with the authors’ previous understanding of heat pump efficiency as a function of evaporator and condenser fluid inlet conditions respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

ACTIVE

The Automated Control Testbed for Integration, Verification, and Emulation (ACTIVE) framework is a software platform designed to support the optimized operation and management of a wide range of building types. It enables the development, testing, and validation of diverse control strategies, including AI-based, rule-based, and model-based approaches. The platform facilitates a seamless transition from simulation-based evaluation of control strategies to real-world field validation and deployment. ACTIVE supports the full building management lifecycle, encompassing data acquisition and management, system monitoring, optimized control, adaptive learning services, device dispatch and coordination, as well as advanced analytics and visualization. Together, these capabilities provide an integrated environment for improving building performance, operational efficiency, reducing energy cost, and reliability.

Smith, Robert [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗

Data for "Field-scale Evaluation of Ecosystem Service Benefits of Bioenergy Switchgrass"

Purpose-grown perennial herbaceous species are nonfood crops specifically cultivated for bioenergy production and have the potential to secure bioenergy feedstock resources while enhancing ecosystem services. This study assessed soil greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 and N2O), nitrate (NO3-N) leaching reduction potential, evapotranspiration (ET), and water-use efficiency (WUE) of bioenergy switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) in comparison to corn ( Zea mays L.). The study was conducted on field-scale plots in Urbana, IL, during the 2020–2022 growing seasons. Switchgrass was established in 2020 and urea-fertilized at 56 kg N ha−1 year−1. Corn management followed best management practices for the US Midwest, including no-till and 202 kg N ha−1 year−1 fertilization, applied as urea–ammonium nitrate (32%). Our results showed lower direct N2O emissions in switchgrass compared to corn. Although soil CO2 emissions did not differ significantly during the establishment year, emissions in subsequent years were over 50% higher in switchgrass than in corn, likely due to increased belowground biomass, which was over five times higher in switchgrass. Nitrate-N leaching decreased as the switchgrass stand matured, reaching 80% lower than in corn by the third year. Differences in ET and WUE between corn and switchgrass were not significant; however, results indicate a trend toward reduced WUE in switchgrass under drought, driven by lower aboveground biomass production. Our study demonstrates that switchgrass can be implemented at a commercial scale without negatively impacting the hydrological cycle, while potentially reducing N losses through nitrate-N leaching and soil N2O emissions, and enhancing belowground C storage.

field data↗

LLM: An L-band multibeam land mobile payload for Europe

The European Space Agency is developing, in the context of the ARTEMIS program, a multibeam reconfigurable mobile payload to provide pre-operational land-mobile satellite services at the L-band over Europe. The L-band Land-Mobile (LLM) payload features high capacity at L-band, efficient use of the L-band spectrum resources, and flexibility in reconfiguring the allocation of bandwith and RF power resources to the different beams. Additionally, a number of features were added to the payload purely for experimental purposes, like the provision of one steerable spot beam which can be repositioned anywhere within the coverage area, and the possibility to reuse L-band frequencies by spatial discrimination between non-adjacent beams, or via orthogonal polarizations. The architecture of the payload and the hardware implementation of the most critical subsystems are described.

Benedicto, J.↗

Advances Made in the Next Generation of Satellite Networks

Because of the unique networking characteristics of communications satellites, global satellite networks are moving to the forefront in enhancing national and global information infrastructures. Simultaneously, broadband data services, which are emerging as the major market driver for future satellite and terrestrial networks, are being widely acknowledged as the foundation for an efficient global information infrastructure. In the past 2 years, various task forces and working groups around the globe have identified pivotal topics and key issues to address if we are to realize such networks in a timely fashion. In response, industry, government, and academia undertook efforts to address these topics and issues. A workshop was organized to provide a forum to assess the current state-of-the-art, identify key issues, and highlight the emerging trends in the next-generation architectures, data protocol development, communication interoperability, and applications. The Satellite Networks: Architectures, Applications, and Technologies Workshop was hosted by the Space Communication Program at the NASA Lewis Research Center in Cleveland, Ohio. Nearly 300 executives and technical experts from academia, industry, and government, representing the United States and eight other countries, attended the event (June 2 to 4, 1998). The program included seven panels and invited sessions and nine breakout sessions in which 42 speakers presented on technical topics. The proceedings covers a wide range of topics: access technology and protocols, architectures and network simulations, asynchronous transfer mode (ATM) over satellite networks, Internet over satellite networks, interoperability experiments and applications, multicasting, NASA interoperability experiment programs, NASA mission applications, and Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP) over satellite: issues, relevance, and experience.

Bhasin, Kul B.↗

Does the Constellation Program Offer Opportunities to Achieve Space Science Goals in Space?

Future space science missions developed to achieve the most ambitious goals are likely to be complex, large, publicly and professionally very important, and at the limit of affordability. Consequently, it may be valuable if such missions can be upgraded, repaired, and/or deployed in space, either with robots or with astronauts. In response to a Request for Information from the US National Research Council panel on Science Opportunities Enabled by NASA's Constellation System, we developed a concept for astronaut-based in-space servicing at the Earth-Moon L1,2 locations that may be implemented by using elements of NASA's Constellation architecture. This libration point jobsite could be of great value for major heliospheric and astronomy missions operating at Earth-Sun Lagrange points. We explored five alternative servicing options that plausibly would be available within about a decade. We highlight one that we believe is both the least costly and most efficiently uses Constellation hardware that appears to be available by mid-next decade: the Ares I launch vehicle, Orion/Crew Exploration Vehicle, Centaur vehicle, and an airlock/servicing node developed for lunar surface operations. Our concept may be considered similar to the Apollo 8 mission: a valuable exercise before descent by astronauts to the lunar surface.

Thronson, Harley A.↗

The Invasive Species Forecasting System

The Invasive Species Forecasting System (ISFS) provides computational support for the generic work processes found in many regional-scale ecosystem modeling applications. Decision support tools built using ISFS allow a user to load point occurrence field sample data for a plant species of interest and quickly generate habitat suitability maps for geographic regions of management concern, such as a national park, monument, forest, or refuge. This type of decision product helps resource managers plan invasive species protection, monitoring, and control strategies for the lands they manage. Until now, scientists and resource managers have lacked the data-assembly and computing capabilities to produce these maps quickly and cost efficiently. ISFS focuses on regional-scale habitat suitability modeling for invasive terrestrial plants. ISFS s component architecture emphasizes simplicity and adaptability. Its core services can be easily adapted to produce model-based decision support tools tailored to particular parks, monuments, forests, refuges, and related management units. ISFS can be used to build standalone run-time tools that require no connection to the Internet, as well as fully Internet-based decision support applications. ISFS provides the core data structures, operating system interfaces, network interfaces, and inter-component constraints comprising the canonical workflow for habitat suitability modeling. The predictors, analysis methods, and geographic extents involved in any particular model run are elements of the user space and arbitrarily configurable by the user. ISFS provides small, lightweight, readily hardened core components of general utility. These components can be adapted to unanticipated uses, are tailorable, and require at most a loosely coupled, nonproprietary connection to the Web. Users can invoke capabilities from a command line; programmers can integrate ISFS's core components into more complex systems and services. Taken together, these features enable a degree of decentralization and distributed ownership that have helped other types of scientific information services succeed in recent years.

Schnase, John↗

Cognitive Communications and Networking Technology Infusion Study Report

As the envisioned next-generation SCaN Network transitions into an end-to-end “system of systems” with new enabling capabilities, it is anticipated that the introduction of machine learning, artificial intelligence, and other cognitive strategies into the network infrastructure will result in increased mission science return, improved resource efficiencies, and increased autonomy and reliability. This enhanced set of cognitive capabilities will be implemented via a “space cloud” concept to achieve a service-oriented architecture with distributed cognition, de-centralized routing, and shared, on-orbit data processing. The enabling cognitive communications and networking capabilities that may facilitate the desired network enhancements are identified in this document, and the associated enablers of these capabilities, such as technologies and standards, are described in detail.

Knoblock, Eric J.↗

Lunar and Planetary Missions Launched from a Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit

Lithium Lorentz Force Accelerators (LFA's) are capable of processing very high power levels and are therefore applicable to a wide range of challenging missions. For this class of missions, the emphasis must be on achieving high efficiency at an Isp of 4000-5000s at power levels of 200-250 kWe. The engines must demonstrate very reliable operation for a service life of about 3000 hours.

Lithium↗

Visualization of Near Real-Time Global Cloud Composites (GCC): Integration in ArcGIS

The NASA Langley Satellite ClOud and Radiation Property retrieval System (SatCORPS) team provides low latency LEO and GEO satellite derived cloud and radiation products to end users for use in near real-time (NRT) applications. Hourly mosaics are fused from LEO (SNPP, JPSS-1, AQUA, MODIS) and GEO Satellite imagers (GOES-West, GOES-East, Metesat-11, Metesat-8, and Himawari-8) to create global cloud composites (GCC). SatCORPS GCC data are integrated into Esri ArcGIS system and transformed into Analysis Rady Data (ARD) to provide more efficient data access to support disaster management, weather diagnoses/forecasting, and Earth Sciences remote sensing applications. GCC data are exposed as RESTful APIs, ArcGIS Image Services, and Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Mapping Services/Web Coverage Services to provide a variety of end points for integration into user applications. We will preview the new interactive SatCORPS GCC web visualization tool and discuss initial integration of GCC product into NASA Airborne Mission Tool Suite (MTS) to support NASA and NOAA field campaigns.

GIS↗

Grid Value Analysis of Geothermal Systems for End-Use Applications

Fuel based end-uses for residential, commercial, and industrial consumers require a technology change to achieve economy-wide decarbonization. Space heating accounts for 42% of residential and 32% of commercial energy demand, much of which is currently met through carbon emitting fuels. Industrial energy use is heavily fuel based with electricity currently representing 13% of energy demand. Geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) and geothermal direct use can eliminate the need for CO2 emitting and simultaneously allow for more efficient electrification of end uses. Past work has assessed the impact on total energy costs and generation investments but did not identify specific grid services benefited. Energy usage in residential and commercial structures was assessed by leveraging data from ComStock and ResStock models. These models utilize housing attributes, occupancy patterns, weather data, and sophisticated energy simulations to generate hourly load profiles for individual buildings identified by unique IDs associated with their locations. Industrial sector energy use was evaluated using information from the Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) as well as plant utilization data from the US Census to estimate hourly plant operations. The change in end-use demand for electricity, natural gas, and other fuels was calculated for different technologies that could meet this need. Using the ReEDS capacity expansion model, we produce regional price profiles that capture the grid benefit associated with the amount and timing of energy shifts in the power system from the adoption of geothermal systems relative to other technologies that could meet space heating, space cooling, and process heat requirements. We find that geothermal systems for meeting end-use demand add value to the energy system. In buildings where geothermal systems increase grid costs, these values are offset by reduced fuel costs and benefits to externalities, including emissions and health impacts.

decarbonization↗

Impact on Cycle Efficiency of Small CHP Plants from Increasing Firing Temperature Enabled by AM of Turbine Blades

Combined Heat and Power (CHP) systems are gaining popularity because of their potential for high overall thermodynamic efficiency and increased need for distributed power generation. Most CHP systems include a gas turbine for electricity generation and a heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) for steam generation. The steam can be used to power a steam turbine for additional electricity generation or to drive rotating equipment, for space heating, for absorption chillers, etc. A CHP cycle configuration is often driven by the ‘principal’ utility for the facility that it services; steam or electricity. In either case, performance improvements in the gas turbine have the potential to increase the steam and power output from the cycle, which is a direct result of improvements in the gas turbine efficiency and power output. One possible opportunity to improve an existing gas turbine’s performance is to increase the firing temperature with improved turbine cooling and increased compression ratio.<br>In this study, the impact on CHP cycle performance from increasing the turbine firing temperature by 100 °C and improving the turbine blade cooling for a 6-MW scale gas turbine is estimated using an analytical cooled gas turbine model and a steam cycle model. A sensitivity analysis was performed to understand the impact of increasing the internal cooling effectiveness, thermal barrier coating performance and blade material upgrades on gas turbine and CHP cycle efficiency. The impacts of turbine blade cooling improvements were studied for three common CHP cycle configurations identified from the literature. Various definitions for CHP cycle efficiency from the literature are used in the comparisons. The results showed that a 100 °C increase in firing temperature can increase the gas turbine efficiency by 1 percentage point without improving cooling effectiveness and add 2 additional percentage points in efficiency by using advanced turbine blades with higher internal cooling efficiency. Studied engine upgrades showed potential for increasing the CHP cycle efficiency by 3 percentage points while increasing the steam generation rate by 8%.<br>

Uysal, Selcuk Can↗

A Review of Value of Solar Studies In Theory and In Practice

This brief summarizes a collection of state- and utility-commissioned value-of-solar (VoS) studies and related literature, with a focus on who commissioned the study, which value and cost categories were discussed and/or quantified, and the methods used. Our objective is to compile information on prior VoS studies to inform state regulators and other stakeholders that may pursue related studies or integrate findings into rate design. The brief is organized into three parts: 1) an introduction to distributed solar photovoltaic (DPV) compensation; 2) a review of theoretical research on VoS; and 3) a review of VoS studies. The vast majority of VoS studies have served an informational role of quantifying the net benefits of PV. Three studies were commissioned in states or utility service territories that subsequently implemented VoS tariffs in California, New York, and Austin, Texas. When applied as a tariff, VoS aims to compensate PV output as efficiently as possible by doing so at rates that reflect the marginal benefits and costs of PV through value and cost categories that may vary temporally and/or geographically. This could lead to higher compensation in locations and times where more PV output is more valuable and consequently drive adoption in those locations to provide more societal benefits. Value and cost factors can be broadly grouped into five categories: generation, transmission, distribution, other utility, and other social categories. Those conducting VoS studies must weigh various tradeoffs when deciding which categories to include and quantify. Tradeoffs include prioritizing values based on their magnitude of value or cost impact, as well as taking into account the feasibility of data collection and accurate quantification. Values of higher magnitude and estimation feasibility are quantified in the majority of studies, including the earliest of studies conducted in the 2000s and 2010s. Additionally, some values of higher magnitude but low feasibility in the earliest of studies have become quantifiable in recent years. There are some values with low average system-wide levels but very high magnitude in specific locations or hours. The value magnitude in some cases can be tied to DPV penetration with low value in areas with little congestion and/or low penetration and vice versa. In these cases, values that are easier to quantify are often incorporated, while those that are more difficult are often addressed via a placeholder value. The placeholder value is paired with a discussion around data needs and methods to improve future estimates, as well as a conversation about when these value categories may increase in magnitude and necessitate more rigorous quantification. This brief summarizes findings from two meta-analyses of VoS studies that took place between 2005 and 2018, as well as findings from four additional studies published from 2018 to 2023. Table ES-1 summarizes the various value and cost categories included in each respective study and whether they were quantified, discussed, or omitted. Values such as avoided energy, capacity, transmission capacity, line losses, and avoided environmental costs are quantified in every study. Some categories were deemed harder to quantify and less impactful at the time of the study, so they were discussed but not quantified (e.g., ancillary services). Other categories, including many at the distribution level, were very locationally and/or temporally specific and dependent on high DPV penetration. These were sometimes quantified and at other times discussed. Notably, when it came to utility costs, integration costs were discussed in all cases, though they were deemed to have a small impact. Other utility costs were omitted for the most part; however, the utility-commissioned study (by NorthWestern Energy in Montana) included both lost utility revenue and programmatic/administrative cost categories. While there are some similarities across studies, each had fairly unique methods that are detailed in the body of this brief.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Developing and Evaluating RGB Composite MODIS Imagery for Applications in National Weather Service Forecast Offices

Satellite remote sensing has gained widespread use in the field of operational meteorology. Although raw satellite imagery is useful, several techniques exist which can convey multiple types of data in a more efficient way. One of these techniques is multispectral compositing. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed two multispectral satellite imagery products which utilize data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, based upon products currently generated and used by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT). The nighttime microphysics product allows users to identify clouds occurring at different altitudes, but emphasizes fog and low cloud detection. This product improves upon current spectral difference and single channel infrared techniques. Each of the current products has its own set of advantages for nocturnal fog detection, but each also has limiting drawbacks which can hamper the analysis process. The multispectral product combines each current product with a third channel difference. Since the final image is enhanced with color, it simplifies the fog identification process. Analysis has shown that the nighttime microphysics imagery product represents a substantial improvement to conventional fog detection techniques, as well as provides a preview of future satellite capabilities to forecasters.

Oswald, Hayden↗

Scaling Up Energy Efficiency Investment in Emerging Markets - Private Sector Perspectives

Since 2000, electricity demand has flattened and decoupled from Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. This trend is anticipated to continue for the next several decades and is largely attributed to the implementation of energy efficiency measures. However, non-OECD countries (emerging markets) have experienced, and are projected to continue experiencing, increasing electricity demands. If the world is to meet the requirements of the Paris Agreement, annual investments in clean energy and energy efficiency need to increase by a factor of six by 2050, compared to 2015. Information presented in this paper is based on qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis methods to provide an empirical understanding of barriers to private sector clean energy investment including microgrid development, energy efficiency, smart grid development, and utility-scale wind and solar in emerging markets. Through literature review, a survey, and a series of webinar dialogues, USAID and the U.S. Department of Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) solicited input from private sector actors, including developers, project financiers, manufacturers and technical assistance service providers, on the challenges they face to market entry in emerging markets, and their suggestions for improving market competitiveness.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Single-Lap Joint Adhesive Bonding Optimization Method Using Gradient and Genetic Algorithms

A natural process for any engineer, scientist, educator, etc. is to seek the most efficient method for accomplishing a given task. In the case of structural design, an area that has a significant impact on the structural efficiency is joint design. Unless the structure is machined from a solid block of material, the individual components which compose the overall structure must be joined together. The method for joining a structure varies depending on the applied loads, material, assembly and disassembly requirements, service life, environment, etc. Using both metallic and fiber reinforced plastic materials limits the user to two methods or a combination of these methods for joining the components into one structure. The first is mechanical fastening and the second is adhesive bonding. Mechanical fastening is by far the most popular joining technique; however, in terms of structural efficiency, adhesive bonding provides a superior joint since the load is distributed uniformly across the joint. The purpose of this paper is to develop a method for optimizing single-lap joint adhesive bonded structures using both gradient and genetic algorithms and comparing the solution process for each method. The goal of the single-lap joint optimization is to find the most efficient structure that meets the imposed requirements while still remaining as lightweight, economical, and reliable as possible. For the single-lap joint, an optimum joint is determined by minimizing the weight of the overall joint based on constraints from adhesive strengths as well as empirically derived rules. The analytical solution of the sin-le-lap joint is determined using the classical Goland-Reissner technique for case 2 type adhesive joints. Joint weight minimization is achieved using a commercially available routine, Design Optimization Tool (DOT), for the gradient solution while an author developed method is used for the genetic algorithm solution. Results illustrate the critical design variables as a function of adhesive properties and convergences of different joints based on the two optimization methods.

Smeltzer, Stanley S., III↗

Stochastic Continuous-time Flexibility Scheduling and Pricing in Wholesale Electricity Markets

Large-scale integration of intermittent renewable energy sources (RES) is calling for additional flexibility resources as well as more advanced modeling and optimization techniques to account for the increasing uncertainty and variability in power systems operation. As the RES integration gains momentum, the magnitude and frequency of their variations increase, which may trigger ramping scarcity events in real-time power systems operation. This necessitates revisiting the present definition of power systems flexibility and reserve services to reflect their robustness and adequacy towards sub-interval variations of the load and RES, as well as adjusting the operation models to accommodate the new reserve services. This project took a fundamental approach and aimed at developing continuous-time scheduling and pricing model that accurately models the continuous-time variations of load and RES and efficiently deploys the ramping capability of flexible resources to compensate the sources of variability and uncertainty in the market. In this regard, this project pursued the following goals: Developing stochastic multi-fidelity continuous-time optimization models for scheduling of energy storage (ES) systems and flexible loads in wholesale energy markets; Developing the theory and practices of continuous-time locational marginal pricing for valuating energy storage systems and flexible loads in wholesale energy markets; Developing function space solution approach to convert the proposed stochastic multi-fidelity continuous-time optimization models into tractable mixed-integer linear optimization models; and Defining flexibility reserve as a new type of reserve in markets that would enable ultimate participation of energy storage devices in provision of services to compensate the variability and uncertainty of RES in electricity markets. This project successfully completed all five major tasks defined in the SOPO, and produced 8 high-impact journal papers, 6 conference papers, 3 published U.S. patents, and one web-based software for continuous-time operation optimization of power systems. The application of the proposed flexibility reserve and the stochastic multi-fidelity continuous-time operation scheduling models would modify the forward commitment and schedule of generating units, ES devices and flexible loads, and would line up the resources in such a way that the composition of available resources is better prepared to respond to the sub-hourly variations of the load and renewable resources in real-time operation. Therefore, this project paves the way to sustainable, reliable, and economic integration of renewable energy resources in power system, supporting the progress towards reaching the national targets on energy independence. Even if the proposed models offers a radically different point of view as compared to existing models, it does not alter fundamentally the architecture of power systems operations, nor the complexity of the scheduling problem, so the integration of this project in power systems is extremely practical.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Regional Real-Time PV Spinning Reserve Estimator

Curtailed photovoltaic (PV) generation is a zero-marginal-cost spinning reserve that can be used for a number of active power control services. Unlike traditional spinning reserve providers, however, i.e., fossil-fueled generators, which have well-defined operating characteristics, e.g., available headroom or potential high limit (PHL), PV plants have by nature variable and uncertain operating characteristics. To ensure the effective coordination between PV plants and the system operator during an active power control event, accurate knowledge of the PV PHL is essential. It ensures that enough headroom is reserved by the PV plants to deliver the award services in real time and informs feasible dispatch decisions made by the market operator. To tackle this challenge, a novel reference-control grouping-based PV plant reserve estimation method has been proposed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under past projects funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office. The estimation method separates inverters within a plant into two groups: a control group and a reference group. While the reference group is reserved to operate at its PHL, the control group can be curtailed to provide the grid services. Real-time outputs from the reference inverters are used to estimate the PHL for the whole plant based on the ratio between capacities of the reference group and of the plant. This work further enhances the methodology by (1) improving the model accuracy through machine learning; (2) automating the reference inverter selection through correlation analysis; (3) considering estimation look-ahead windows; and (4) applying to regional spinning reserve estimation. Significant performance improvement has been observed based on real-world data collected by CAISO, Southern Company, and Terabase Energy. Compared with the original scaling method, the newly proposed machine learning-based approach reduces the estimation errors by 30% and 13% at the plant level and region level, respectively. Results obtained from this project are intended to be used by grid operators, market operators, balancing authorities, and PV plant owners and operators to facilitate PV participation in ancillary service markets. Regulators, policymakers, and system planners can also consider the results of this work in their decision-making processes. In addition to the performance improvement on the existing reference-control based grouping method, we also investigated how the variability of PV generation from a single PV inverter can be used to represent the variability of PV generation at the plant level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗