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DOE OSTI2023

Examining Infrasound Propagation at High Spatial Resolution Using a Nodal Seismic Array

Infrasound—acoustic waves in the atmosphere below 20 Hz—is a useful monitoring tool. Topography and atmospheric structure strongly control infrasound propagation, and at common source–receiver distances neither of these effects can be ignored when quantitative source constraints are sought. Detailed spatial measurements of the infrasound wavefield would inform propagation models and improve source estimates. However, the “large-N” deployment strategy now well-known in seismology has not yet been realized for infrasound studies. Here, we use the 900-node seismic array from the 2014 Imaging Magma Under St. Helens (iMUSH) experiment as a proxy for a large-N infrasound network, by leveraging acoustic–seismic coupled arrivals. The active-source component of iMUSH consisted of 23 shallowly buried explosions around Mount Saint Helens volcano; these explosions produced epicentral infrasound recorded on the nodes. We find that the bulk presence of ground-coupled infrasound on the nodes is controlled by wind noise and source–receiver distance, with observed arrivals for eight explosions. Explosions with the most extensive coupling produce complex spatial waveform patterns across the array. These patterns are related to both topographic and atmospheric propagation effects, as well as spatially variable site (coupling) effects. We compare our observations to simple topographic diffraction and high-resolution wind advection models, and full-wave numerical simulations. We find strong spatial correlations between (a) coupled arrival strength and modeled topographic obstruction and (b) coupled arrival time and along-path winds. Our seismoacoustic analyses and results are applicable to other existing and future nodal seismic data sets and can expand the utility of such deployments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Permeability scaling relationships of volcanic tuff from core to field scale measurements

A recent chemical explosive test in P-Tunnel at the Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, USA, was conducted to better understand how signals propagate from explosions in the subsurface. A primary signal of interest is the migration of gases that can be used to differentiate chemical from nuclear explosions. Gas migration is highly dependent on the rock permeability which is notoriously difficult to determine experimentally in the field due to a potentially large dependence on the scale over which measurements are made. Here, we present pre-explosion permeability estimates to characterize the geologic units surrounding the recent test. Permeability measurements were made at three scales of increasing size: core samples (≈2 cm), borehole packer system tests (≈1 m), and a pre-shot cavity pressurization test (> 10 m) across ten tuff units. Permeability estimates based on core measurements showed little difference from borehole packer tests. However, permeability in most rock units calibrated from cavity pressurization tests resulted in higher permeability estimates by up to two orders of magnitude. Here, we demonstrate that the scale of the measurement significantly impacts the characterization efforts of hydraulic properties in volcanic tuff, and that local-scale measurements (< 10 m scale) do not incorporate enough heterogeneity to accurately predict field-scale flow and mass transport.

Environmental sciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advances in geophysical forensic event monitoring

Forensic analysis of man-made, non-nuclear events (such as industrial accidents, explosion experiments and mine collapses) has become more frequent and detailed owing to advancements in geophysical monitoring. Here, in this Technical Review, we demonstrate how geophysical forensic monitoring using seismic, infrasound and hydroacoustic recordings provides insights on events in the solid earth, atmosphere and underwater. Advanced techniques, including machine-learning-based models, have been developed to detect, identify and investigate these events, providing information on location, subevents, sources and explosive yield. The increase in data availability, application of advanced methods and computation and the growth of multitechnology approaches have increased the accuracy of forensic event analysis and enabled more realistic characterization of uncertainties. For example, the 2020 Beirut explosion in Lebanon demonstrated that various seismic, acoustic and other methods could be used to estimate explosive yield (and yield uncertainties) of about 1 ktonne, providing confidence in the application of these methods to smaller events where data are available. However, forensic investigations remain largely limited to known events with identified sources. Increased access to data, sophisticated analysis methods and high-resolution earth models will improve forensic event analysis further, enabling civil and scientific applications, such as localization in the search for the lost ARA San Juan submarine.

geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comparing the shock sensitivity of insensitive energetic materials

We present a tabletop method to study the shock sensitivity of plastic-bonded explosives that are considered shock insensitive using high dynamic range optical emission spectroscopy with laser-launched km/s flyer plate impacts (2, 3, and 4 km/s), which measures the spectral radiance (the emission spectrum vs a calibrated intensity standard) every 0.8 ns in the nanosecond and microsecond regimes. The explosives were TATB (1,3,5 trinitro, 2,4,6 triamino benzene), FOX-7 (1,1-diamino-2,2-dinitroethylene), LLM-105 (2,6-diamino-3,5-dinitropyrazine-1-oxide), and NTO (nitrotriazolone), all with 20% Sylgard 182 binder. Time resolving emission from shocked explosives produces a unique fingerprint at each shock pressure, and the emission temporal profile can be used to understand each material's shock response and the underlying mechanisms within the framework of the well-known shock ignition and growth models. Ignition was characterized by the emission intensity during nanosecond hot spot ignition. The growth process, which occurs after the shock has unloaded, was characterized by the time derivative of microsecond emission intensity. Singular-value decomposition was used to determine a characteristic spectral radiance over the entire time range, and this radiance was fit to a graybody model to determine a characteristic temperature Tc. Even though these insensitive explosives have similar shock sensitivities, our method can clearly distinguish their shock response. FOX-7 and NTO were the most sensitive, with FOX-7 having the greatest shock ignition sensitivity, growth rate, and Tc. LLM-105 was much less sensitive than FOX-7 and NTO, and TATB consistently showed the lowest sensitivity by any measure.

Akhtar, Meysam (ORCID:0000000243897837)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Study of SXR/EUV radiation of exploded foils and wires with spectral, spatial and temporal resolution simultaneously on KING electric discharge facility.

The results of studies of the soft X-ray and extreme ultraviolet (SXR/EUV) radiation of thin flat aluminum foils and wires under the explosion in an electric discharge on the compact high-current KING generator are presented. These studies were based on the SXR/EUV spectroscopy with a spectral resolution of 6 Å, a temporal resolution of 5 ns and a spatial resolution of 200 μm. To study the plasma radiation of exploded foils and wires in the SXR/EUV range, we used a transmission diffraction grating spectrograph which in combination with two additional slits provided spectral and spatial resolution. The spectrograph was coupled with a 4-frame recorder based on a microchannel plate for providing temporal resolution. The analysis and comparison of the spectral, spatial, temporal, and energy characteristics of the SXR/EUV radiation of plasma formed under the explosion of foils and wires of a similar mass made of aluminum was carried out. Here, the spectra were calculated as well and the plasma parameters and their changes in time and space were estimated on the basis of these calculations and comparison with relevant experimental results. Experiments have shown that when foils explode, a single intense source of SXR/EUV radiation is formed with radiated energy in the range of 10-20 J and a power of up to 100 MW in the quantum energy range from 30 to 250 eV. At the same time, the radiation power under the explosion of foils turned out to be about twice above the power under the explosion of wires of comparable mass.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hypothesis tests on Rayleigh wave radiation pattern shapes: a theoretical assessment of idealized source screening

SUMMARY Shallow seismic sources excite Rayleigh wave ground motion with azimuthally dependent radiation patterns. We place binary hypothesis tests on theoretical models of such radiation patterns to screen cylindrically symmetric sources (like explosions) from non-symmetric sources (like non-vertical dip-slip or non-VDS faults). These models for data include sources with several unknown parameters, contaminated by Gaussian noise and embedded in a layered half-space. The generalized maximum likelihood ratio tests that we derive from these data models produce screening statistics and decision rules that depend on measured, noisy ground motion at discrete sensor locations. We explicitly quantify how the screening power of these statistics increase with the size of any dip-slip and strike-slip components of the source, relative to noise (faulting signal strength) and how they vary with network geometry. As applications of our theory, we apply these tests to (1) find optimal sensor locations that maximize the probability of screening non-circular radiation patterns and (2) invert for the largest non-VDS faulting signal that could be mistakenly attributed to an explosion with damage, at a particular attribution probability. Finally, we quantify how certain errors that are sourced by opening cracks increase screening rate errors. While such theoretical solutions are ideal and require future validation, they remain important in underground explosion monitoring scenarios because they provide fundamental physical limits on the discrimination power of tests that screen explosive from non-VDS faulting sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hazard and risk analysis framework for nuclear power plant–based integrated energy systems

Employing integrated energy systems (IESs) with nuclear power plants (NPPs) can improve NPP utilization by leveraging dedicated thermal and electric power delivery, but it may also increase operational safety risks. This paper presents a framework to identify and quantify hazards and risks for such IESs. The framework combines accidentology to review past industrial accidents with failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) to identify potential future incidents. Hydrogen explosion and toxic chemical release hazards are of particular concern. Explosion consequences are quantified using the Bauwens-Dorofeev (Bauwens) and trinitrotoluene equivalent mass (TNT-EM) methods, while chemical release consequences are computed using the Gaussian atmospheric dispersion method. Operational disturbances from direct electrical and thermal integration that may affect NPP safety are modeled using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Hazards and risks are then evaluated for regulatory compliance. The framework is applied to IESs comprising pressurized or boiling water reactors supplying three levels of thermal and electrical power to industrial customers. Case studies include high-temperature steam electrolysis hydrogen plants of varying capacities and a synthetic fuel production plant. Sensitivity analysis examines piping component failures in the PRA model as a precursor to cost estimation for thermal extraction line design. Additionally, Fussel-Vessely (FV) and risk increase importance (RII) measures identify risk-informed design improvements for the thermal extraction system. FMEA highlights hazards such as loss of offsite power, prompt loss of electrical load, loss of thermal output, and immediate steam diversion, in addition to hydrogen explosions and toxic chemical releases. Both Bauwens and TNT-EM methods suggest maintaining several hundred meters of separation between the NPP and hydrogen facility to mitigate explosion risks. PRA results show a maximum initiating event frequency increase of 1.15% and an overall risk increase of 0.28%. Importance measure analysis identifies upstream pipe leak isolation components as critical. Evaluating the results against safety regulations, it is concluded that hazards and risks can be managed to comply with regulations through risk-informed thermal and electrical connection designs, component selection, maintenance programs, and safe separation distances between NPPs and integrated industrial facilities.

08 - HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulating High-Frequency Seismograms in Realistic Earth Models to Better Understand Source Discrimination Based on Differential Magnitudes ( M L− M c)

Discriminating low-yield underground nuclear explosions from small earthquakes is a key task in monitoring nuclear test ban treaties. P/S amplitude ratios have been an effective discriminant for moderate-sized events recorded at regional distances, but it is unclear if they are as effective in discriminating small seismic events recorded at local distances (<150 km). The difference between local magnitude (M L ) and coda duration magnitude (M c ) has been proposed as a new discriminant that may complement P/S amplitude ratios at local distances. Here, in this work, we calculate high-frequency (up to ∼4 Hz) synthetic seismograms at epicentral distances of 0–30 km in realistic models of the Salt Lake basin (Utah, United States) to better understand how variations in source type and depth affect M L −M c values. The Earth models incorporate simplified 1D and deterministic 3D structures, small-wavelength stochastic velocity perturbations, and surface topography. Coda waves are enhanced for the more complicated models compared to the base 1D model, but still underpredict observed durations by about a factor of two, which results in overprediction of amplitude to duration ratios (i.e., M L −M c values) for a near-surface explosion and a 7 km deep earthquake. For both source types, the predicted M L and M c values decrease as source depth increases, and M L −M c shows only minor variation with depth; however, M L −M c is on average ∼0.5 units smaller for explosions than earthquakes. This finding may imply that M L −M c has sensitivity to source type, in addition to being a depth discriminant, but more modeling is needed given the limitations of the current study. Future modeling should incorporate higher-frequency (≳5 Hz) simulations over a larger distance range (0–150 km), where M L and M c are commonly measured, while honoring low shear velocities (<300 m/s) near the surface and sampling a wider range of earthquake and explosion source mechanisms.

Hutchings, Sean J. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City,↗

DOE OSTI2020

Formulation via Resonant Acoustic Mixing at LANL

Discussions in the middle of 2014 led researchers at LANL to seek an alternate formulation method for making PBX based explosives. We began looking into the use of Resonant Acoustic Mixers (RAM) to formulate explosives and mocks. Acoustic mixing had been used in pharmaceutical plants for mixing medicines and coating materials, so we envisioned transitioning that same technology to the energetics world. Up until this time only the wet slurry formulation method that had been used was from the 1940’s. This wet slurry method had been and still was the standard for all explosive formulations. The possibility of an alternate method needed to be looked at to advance the process by expanding solvent choices, substrates, and reducing costs. Acoustic mixing had been shown to mix powders, slurries, pastes or even liquids. A Resodyn LabRAM was purchased in late 2014 to explore these possible applications to energetics. This LabRAM was in a remote configuration that met our need for explosive operations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Methodological Overview of Seismic Analysis for Nuclear Event Detection

Underground explosions generate potentially detectable signatures, including energy waves that travel through the Earth’s subsurface (i.e., seismic waves), low-frequency sound waves (i.e., infrasound and hydroacoustic waves), and radioactive gases and/or particles that might leak from the test cavity (if the event was nuclear). There can also be intelligence indicators of a test, such as observations of modified patterns of life and activity at a suspected test site. If all of these detectable signatures and intelligence indicators are present and self-consistent, then analysts have high confidence in classifying a signature generating event as an explosion. However, because only partial information about an event is likely to be available, determining whether an event was natural (e.g., an earthquake or landslide) or manmade (e.g., a chemical or nuclear explosion) is much more challenging. This primer describes how one category of event signatures—seismic signatures—can augment event analyses. While universities and government organizations have generated detailed technical descriptions of seismic analytic techniques, we seek to translate seismic event analysis for a broad, non-technical audience. When the geologic conditions near an event are well-characterized, seismic data can be used to calculate critical information, such as event location and depth, with relatively high accuracy. Moreover, specific features within seismic datasets can help determine whether an event was an explosion. However, a key challenge in seismic analysis is that geologic site conditions are often poorly characterized, complicating the ability to discern the true nature of the event. To overcome this challenge, geologists answer a series of questions (discussed in section 1) to guide seismic event analysis and determine the most probable nature of an event. As more information is gathered during each analytic step, confidence grows regarding the nature of the event. Section 2 addresses uncertainties in seismic analysis and the vital nature of high-fidelity geologic data for accurate seismic event analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Rock Valley Direct Comparison Relocation Working Group Location Results and Recommendations (Version 4.0)

The Source Physics Experiments (SPE) were designed to improve our physics-based understanding of explosion sources for the purposes of nuclear test monitoring. Phase I consisted of 6 chemical explosions in the Climax Stock Granite of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), while Phase II consisted of 4 explosions in a contrasting dry alluvium geology (DAG) in Yucca Flat, providing essential data in various media and emplacement conditions to further modeling efforts. For Phase III, the Rock Valley Direct Comparison (RVDC) seeks to directly compare earthquake and explosion source types. An unusually shallow series of events in 1993 along the Rock Valley Fault Zone in the southeastern portion of the NNSS has been targeted for this direct comparison. Depth ranges for the events, previously estimated to be less than 3 km, is achievable by modern drilling techniques and accessibility to the epicentral locations would require minimal improvements to the infrastructure. The events providing this unique opportunity for direct comparison are the focus of this report.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of Argon-37 Background Concentrations in the Atmosphere

Radioisotopes of noble gases, primarily xenon and argon, are important indicators of underground nuclear explosions. The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) includes monitoring capabilities to identify potential nuclear explosions conducted in violation of the CTBT. This monitoring currently focuses on measurement of the xenon isotopes 133 Xe, 135 Xe, 131 mXe and 133 mXe. However, it is predicted that within 100 days of an underground nuclear explosion (UNE) 37 Ar would be released to the atmosphere at higher concentrations than xenon isotopes (Haas et al. 2010). Therefore, inclusion of 37 Ar measurement capabilities at atmospheric International Monitoring System (IMS) stations could improve the capability to detect a nuclear explosion. At an IMS station, it could be difficult to determine what constitutes an elevated concentration as a result of an UNE without first understanding the expected range of background concentrations. This work describes our analysis of atmospheric samples for 37 Ar to evaluate the range of background concentrations. The range of 37 Ar concentrations measured in atmospheric air samples was relatively narrow ranging between less than 1 mBq/m 3 to greater than 2 mBq/m 3 . The average atmospheric concentration of all samples was 0.98 mBq/m 3 , with a standard deviation of 0.5 mBq/m 3 . This is consistent with previous published results. The results presented here demonstrate the capability to detect background concentrations of 37 Ar in atmospheric air.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2025

The "Fake" Supernova Neutrinos of SBND: Using Muons Decaying at Rest to Study the Charged Current MeV-Scale $V_e$-Ar Cross Section

In a Type-II core collapse supernova, 99% of the total amount of energy is released in the form of neutrinos. However, the nearest supernova explosion in the last few hundred years was in 1987, over thirty years ago. It was also the first from which particle detectors around the world managed to detect the neutrino flux, yielding important information about their properties and the explosion mechanism. Neutrinos are the most weakly interacting subatomic fundamental particles known to date, and they act as a cooling mechanism for the star. Out of the six neutrino flavours currently known, the majority exiting the explosion are electron neutrinos, ve. Neutrino experiments using liquid argon (LAr) as their detector medium are unique at probing this specific channel. In the meantime, however, until the next explosion, we can still practise for the big event. With the Short Baseline Near Detector (SBND) experiment at Fermilab, we can study how electron neutrinos of the same energy coming from the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) interact in LAr, and measure the cross section. As BNB measurements are mostly tailored to higher energy neutrinos, I will present an overview of how SBND is aiming to select the low-energy neutrino candidates from muons Decaying At Rest (DAR) in the absorber and target within the BNB beam pipe. This is not a straightforward feat, encompassing special difficulties that include beam and flux systematic uncertainty simulation, system trigger needs and particular reconstruction efforts, and so I will present how each challenge is being addressed in SBND. This will be a novel measurement in the neutrino particle physics community, and will prove fundamental for the next generation of supernova neutrino detectors.

Kotsiopoulou, Lucy [Edinburgh U.]↗

DOE OSTI2022

Connecting the Light Curves of Type IIP Supernovae to the Properties of Their Progenitors

Abstract Observations of core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) reveal a wealth of information about the dynamics of the supernova ejecta and its composition but very little direct information about the progenitor. Constraining properties of the progenitor and the explosion requires coupling the observations with a theoretical model of the explosion. Here we begin with the CCSN simulations of Couch et al., which use a nonparametric treatment of the neutrino transport while also accounting for turbulence and convection. In this work we use the SuperNova Explosion Code to evolve the CCSN hydrodynamics to later times and compute bolometric light curves. Focusing on Type IIP SNe (SNe IIP), we then (1) directly compare the theoretical STIR explosions to observations and (2) assess how properties of the progenitor’s core can be estimated from optical photometry in the plateau phase alone. First, the distribution of plateau luminosities ( L 50 ) and ejecta velocities achieved by our simulations is similar to the observed distributions. Second, we fit our models to the light curves and velocity evolution of some well-observed SNe. Third, we recover well-known correlations, as well as the difficulty of connecting any one SN property to zero-age main-sequence mass. Finally, we show that there is a usable, linear correlation between iron core mass and L 50 such that optical photometry alone of SNe IIP can give us insights into the cores of massive stars. Illustrating this by application to a few SNe, we find iron core masses of 1.3–1.5 M ⊙ with typical errors of 0.05 M ⊙ . Data are publicly available online on Zenodo: doi: 10.5281/zenodo.6631964 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Origin and Evolution of the Normal Type Ia SN 2018aoz with Infant-phase Reddening and Excess Emission

SN 2018aoz is a Type Ia SN with a B-band plateau and excess emission in infant-phase light curves ≲1 day after the first light, evidencing an over-density of surface iron-peak elements as shown in our previous study. Here, we advance the constraints on the nature and origin of SN 2018aoz based on its evolution until the nebular phase. Near-peak spectroscopic features show that the SN is intermediate between two subtypes of normal Type Ia: core normal and broad line. The excess emission may be attributable to the radioactive decay of surface iron-peak elements as well as the interaction of ejecta with either the binary companion or a small torus of circumstellar material. Nebular-phase limits on Hα and He ι favor a white dwarf companion, consistent with the small companion size constrained by the low early SN luminosity, while the absence of [O ι] and He ι disfavors a violent merger of the progenitor. Of the two main explosion mechanisms proposed to explain the distribution of surface iron-peak elements in SN 2018aoz, the asymmetric Chandrasekhar-mass explosion is less consistent with the progenitor constraints and the observed blueshifts of nebular-phase [Fe ιι] and [Ni ιι]. The helium-shell double-detonation explosion is compatible with the observed lack of C spectral features, but current 1D models are incompatible with the infant-phase excess emission, $B_{max}$--$V_{max}$ color, and weak strength of nebular-phase [Ca ιι]. Although the explosion processes of SN 2018aoz still need to be more precisely understood, the same processes could produce a significant fraction of Type Ia SNe that appear to be normal after ~1 day.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Progenitors of Superluminous Type Ia Supernovae

Abstract Recent observations of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) have discovered a subclass of “super-Chandrasekhar” SNe Ia (SC SNe Ia) whose high luminosities and low ejecta velocities suggest that they originate from the explosions of white dwarfs (WDs) with masses that exceed the Chandrasekhar mass limit. Different models have been proposed to explain the progenitors of these explosions, including a “magnetized WD” model and a “WD merger” model. To test the robustness of these models, we conduct a 1D numerical parameter survey of WD explosions using these models as initial conditions. We follow the explosions using the hydrodynamics code Castro and then use the radiation transport code SuperNu to create light curves and spectra for the models. We find that while both classes of models fall within the range of SC SNe Ia observations on the light-curve width–luminosity relation, only the WD merger models reproduce the observed low ejecta velocities. The light curves of our merger models are more similar photometrically to observations than our magnetized models. Given this, we discuss possible explanations for the brightest SC SNe Ia observations that cannot be reproduced with our WD merger models. This study provides the basis for future SC SNe Ia observations and higher-dimensional numerical models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Phase Formation in Nuclear Fallout

An understanding of the physical and chemical process occurring in a nuclear explosion enables predictions of the effects of nuclear weapons, including characteristics of radioactive fallout resulting from the explosion. Near-surface nuclear explosions are of particular interest due to the potential for significant amounts of environmental material to interact with and alter the physical and chemical behavior of the fireball. Such interactions have the potential to affect the distribution of radioactive species in the fireball and subsequently become incorporated into fallout through a process known as radiochemical fractionation. Studying variations in fallout formed in different historical testing environments allows us to understand the influence of local environments on fallout formation processes. In particular, constraining variations in thermal evolution and redox conditions during the evolution of the fireball can be useful to understanding how sensitive fallout radiochemical fractionation may be to the local explosion environment. However, untangling these conditions in complex, multicomponent fallout is a challenge. Here we present one method of constraining and interpreting fallout formation conditions by relating computationally derived phase stability predictions to observations in historic fallout. Development of such approaches will help improve physics-based models of fallout formation and radiochemical fractionation in complex, near surface nuclear detonations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Discrimination of Seismic Events (2006–2020) in North Korea Using P/Lg Amplitude Ratios from Regional Stations and a Bivariate Discriminant Function

Two events of magnitude (m b ) 3.6–3.8 occurred in southern North Korea (NK) on 27 June 2019 and 11 May 2020. Although these events were located ~330–400 km from the known nuclear test site, the fact that they occurred within the territory of NK, a country with a recent history of underground nuclear tests, made them events of interest for the monitoring community. In this work, we used P/Lg ratios from regional stations to categorize seismic events that occurred in NK from 2006 to May 2020, including these two recent events, the six declared NK nuclear tests, and the cavity collapse and triggered earthquakes that followed the 3 September 2017 nuclear explosion. We were able to separate the cavity collapse from the population of nuclear explosions. However, based on P/Lg ratios, the distinction between the earthquakes and the cavity collapse is ambiguous. The performed discriminant analyses suggest that combining Pg/Lg and Pn/Lg ratios results in improved discriminant power compared with any of the ratio types alone. We used the two ratio types jointly in a quadratic discriminant function and successfully classified the six declared nuclear tests and the triggered earthquakes that followed the September 2017 explosion. Our analyses also confirm that the recent southern events of June 2019 and May 2020 are both tectonic earthquakes that occurred naturally.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗