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NASA NTRS2017

Reusing JPSS Ground System Components to Process Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument Science Products

New Earth observation instruments are planned to enable advancements in Earth science research over the next decade. Diversity of Earth observing instruments and their observing platforms will continue to increase as new instrument technologies emerge and are deployed as part of National programs such as Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite system (GOES), Landsat as well as the potential for many CubeSat and aircraft missions. The practical use and value of these observational data often extends well beyond their original purpose. The practicing community needs intuitive and standardized tools to enable quick unfettered development of tailored products for specific applications and decision support systems. However, the associated data processing system can take years to develop and requires inherent knowledge and the ability to integrate increasingly diverse data types from multiple sources. This paper describes the adaptation of a large-scale data processing system built for supporting JPSS algorithm calibration and validation (CalVal) node to a simplified science data system for rapid application. The new configurable data system reuses scalable JAVA technologies built for the JPSS Government Resource for Algorithm Verification, Independent Test, and Evaluation (GRAVITE) system to run within a laptop environment and support product generation and data processing of AURA Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) science products. Of particular interest are the root requirements necessary for integrating experimental algorithms and Hierarchical Data Format (HDF) data access libraries into a science data production system. This study demonstrates the ability to reuse existing Ground System technologies to support future missions with minimal changes.

Science Data Systems↗
NASA NTRS2018

Carbon-Nitrogen Coupling Under Three Schemes of Model Representation: A Traceability Analysis

The interaction between terrestrial carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles has been incorporated into more and more land surface models. However, the scheme of C-N coupling differs greatly among models, and how these diverse representations of C-N interactions will affect C-cycle modeling remains unclear. In this study, we explored how the simulated ecosystem C storage capacity in the terrestrial ecosystem (TECO) model varied with three different commonly used schemes of C-N coupling. The three schemes (SM1, SM2, and SM3) have been used in three different coupled C-N models (i.e., TECO-CN, CLM 4.5, and O-CN, respectively). They differ mainly in the stoichiometry of C and N in vegetation and soils, plant N uptake strategies, down regulation of photosynthesis, and the pathways of N import. We incorporated the three C-N coupling schemes into the C-only version of the TECO model and evaluated their impacts on the C cycle with a traceability framework. Our results showed that all three of the C-N schemes caused significant reductions in steady-state C storage capacity compared with the C-only version with magnitudes of −23%, −30%, and −54% for SM1, SM2, and SM3, respectively. This reduced C storage capacity was mainly derived from the combined effects of decreases in net primary productivity (NPP; −29%, −15%, and −45%) and changes in mean C residence time (MRT; 9%, −17%, and −17%) for SM1, SM2, and SM3, respectively. The differences in NPP are mainly attributed to the different assumptions on plant N uptake, plant tissue C : N ratio, down regulation of photosynthesis, and biological N fixation. In comparison, the alternative representations of the plant vs. microbe competition strategy and the plant N uptake, combined with the flexible C : N ratio in vegetation and soils, led to a notable spread in MRT. These results highlight the fact that the diverse assumptions on N processes represented by different C-N coupled models could cause additional uncertainty for land surface models. Understanding their difference can help us improve the capability of models to predict future biogeochemical cycles of terrestrial ecosystems.

Du, Zhenggang↗
NASA NTRS2018

Probing Supraglacial Debris on Mars 2: Crater Morphology

Lobate debris aprons (LDA), lineated valley fill (LVF), and concentric crater fill (CCF) on Mars, interpreted to bedebris-covered glaciers, possess craters with a suite of distinct interior landforms (called "ring-mold craters")that have been attributed to the presence of glacial ice at depth or surface modification processes. We testedcurrent hypotheses for the formation of ring-mold craters by conducting a comprehensive analysis of the size andmorphology of 16,457 impact craters 125m in diameter formed within glacial deposits in DeuteronilusMensae. Two major groups, bowl-shaped craters and ring-mold craters, are found, with at least nine distinctcrater types. While there is statistical difference in median diameters between these crater types, this differenceis relatively small and is within the estimated uncertainty in diameter measurements and may be related to moreenhanced erosion of the rims of ring-mold craters. Clear degradation sequences are observed, supporting a rolefor post-impact modification in producing at least some of the diversity in crater landforms. The spatial densityof ring-mold craters is also directly correlated with the development of LDA, LVF, and CCF surface textures. Flowlineations cross-cut two ring-mold crater types but they maintain their circular planforms in some cases, suggestingthat the craters initially formed completely within mantling layers deposited after glacial flow hadceased. We also find analogous craters in non-glacial units; glacial ice is therefore not required to form theobserved morphologic diversity. Our observations are most consistent with formation of crater landforms byemplacement and modification of at least two depositional episodes of icy dust (i.e., "mantle"). This mantle wasinitially tens of meters in thickness to support crater formation, and has experienced much downwasting anderosion since emplacement. Derived crater retention ages of 460 Ma for LDA, LVF, and CCF features in the regiontherefore reflect deposition of mantle units and only give a very minimum age for the formation of LDA, LVF, andCCF

Geological↗
NASA NTRS2018

Satellite and In Situ Observations for Advancing Global Earth Surface Modelling: A Review

In this paper we review the use of satellite-based remote sensing in combination with in situ data to inform Earth surface modelling. This involves verification and optimization methods that can handle both random and systematic errors and result in effective model improvement for both surface monitoring and prediction applications. The reasons for diverse remote sensing data and products include (i) their complementary areal and temporal coverage, (ii) their diverse and covariant information content, and (iii) their ability to complement in situ observations, which are often sparse and only locally representative. To improve our understanding of the complex behavior of the Earth system at the surface and sub-surface, we need large volumes of data from high-resolution modelling and remote sensing, since the Earth surface exhibits a high degree of heterogeneity and discontinuities in space and time. The spatial and temporal variability of the biosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere and anthroposphere calls for an increased use of Earth observation (EO) data attaining volumes previously considered prohibitive. We review data availability and discuss recent examples where satellite remote sensing is used to infer observable surface quantities directly or indirectly, with particular emphasis on key parameters necessary for weather and climate prediction. Coordinated high-resolution remote-sensing and modelling/assimilation capabilities for the Earth surface are required to support an international application-focused effort.

Earth observations↗
NASA NTRS2018

Methane on Mars: New Insights into the Sensitivity of CH4 with the NOMAD/ExoMars Spectrometer Through Its First In-Flight Calibration

The Nadir and Occultation for MArs Discovery instrument (NOMAD), onboard the ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter (TGO) spacecraft was conceived to observe Mars in solar occultation, nadir, and limb geometries, and will be able to produce an outstanding amount of diverse data, mostly focused on properties of the atmosphere. The infrared channels of the instrument operate by combining an echelle grating spectrometer with an Acousto- Optical Tunable Filter (AOTF). Using in-flight data, we characterized the instrument performance and parameterized its calibration. In particular: an accurate frequency calibration was achieved, together with its variability due to thermal effects on the grating. The AOTF properties and transfer function were also quantified, and we developed and tested a realistic method to compute the spectral continuum transmitted through the coupled grating and AOTF system. The calibration results enabled unprecedented insights into the important problem of the sensitivity of NOMAD to methane abundances in the atmosphere. We also deeply characterized its performance under realistic conditions of varying aerosol abundances, diverse albedos and changing illumination conditions as foreseen over the nominal mission. The results show that, in low aerosol conditions, NOMAD single spectrum, 1σ sensitivity to CH4 is around 0.33 ppbv at 20 km of altitude when performing solar occultation's, and better than 1 ppbv below 30 km. In dusty conditions, we show that the sensitivity drops to 0 below 10 km. In Nadir geometry, results demonstrate that NOMAD will be able to produce seasonal maps of CH4 with a sensitivity around 5 ppbv over most of planet's surface with spatial integration over 5×5° bins. Results show also that such numbers can be improved by a factor of ~10 to ~30 by data binning. Overall, our results quantify NOMAD's capability to address the variable aspects of Martian climate.

Liuzzi, Giuliano↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Lander Vision System for Mars 2020 Entry Descent and Landing

In January 2016, the Mars 2020 project added Terrain Relative Navigation to the project baseline. This new capability helps the mission avoid large hazards in the landing ellipse, which enables the consideration of landing sites that more geologically diverse than before. This diversity should improve the quality of the samples collected by Mars 2020 for possible future return to earth. The Lander Vision System (LVS) is the sensor that provides the position fix that is used to determine where to land between hazards identified in orbital data prior to landing. This paper describes the LVS flight design for Mars 2020, a high-fidelity simulation used as a design tool and the expected LVS performance for Mars 2020.

Johnson, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2019

Federated Cloud Challenges in NASA's Earth Science Data Systems (Why So Difficult?)

NASA is presented with a number of opportunities and challenges in federating its Earth Science Data Systems in the burgeoning world of cloud computing. Cloud hosting of Earth Science data provides a new way of bringing data together, at least from a virtual location sense, and is one of the main motives for NASA to host data there. However, NASA is also faced with a Big Data Variety challenge, brought on by the variety of the EO datasets in its archives. This diversity requires many diverse science archives to service the different science communities. As a result, nearly every major function in the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) must also be federated across its data centers. This pattern is repeated with many of the outside agencies and organizations that EOSDIS federates with, such as the Committee for Earth Observing Satellites, leading to pioneering work on "deep federation" in a joint project with the European Space Agency to develop a Multi-Mission Algorithm and Analysis Platform.

Lynnes, Christopher↗
NASA NTRS2019

Does Seed Sanitization Affect the Plant Rhizosphere Microbiome and Its Ability to Compete with the Human Associated Pathogen, E. coli on Salad Crops?

Cultivation of crops in controlled environmental agricultural systems may limit microbial colonization and reduce diversity of the microbial communities. Practices like seed and growth medium sanitization may further impact microbial communities in the mature plant and the plant’s capacity to limit the growth of pathogens through competition. As humans expand their travels to space, understanding plant growth, health, and development in closed environments will be critical to the success of producing a safe, supplemental food source for astronauts. To determine the persistence of a potential human pathogen in plant growth and development, sanitized and unsanitized seeds from, mizuna (Brassica rapa var japonica) and red romaine lettuce (Lactuca sativa cultivar ‘Outredgeous’), were inoculated with Escherichia coli, ATCC 21445, germinated under simulated International Space Station (ISS) environmental conditions and harvested every 7 days until maturity. The persistence of E. coli in the rhizosphere was determined by plating on selective media, real time PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) and community sequencing of the rhizosphere communities. E. coli was detected in the crops’ roots and leaves for several weeks post germination. At day 28, plants from sanitized seeds had significantly higher counts of E. coli on the roots than those from unsanitized seeds. E. coli was also detected on a few uninoculated plants indicating airborne cross contamination among plants in the same growth chamber and suggesting an influence of the natural microbiome on human pathogen survival and persistence in leafy greens. Sequencing analysis revealed variations in composition and diversity between the communities. Understanding the microbial community of the rhizospheric microbiome is only the first step in determining the relationships between plants. Additional studies to include genotypic and phenotypic variations in the plants should be considered to determine if the natural microbes in the rhizosphere may contribute to the health and therefore, safety of the edible plants.

Khodadad, Christina L. M.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Leafy Greens Grown on the International Space Station May Provide a Nutritious Supplement to Astronauts' Diet

Supplemental safe food production has been an essential goal of NASA to meet the nutritional needs of astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS) as well as for future long duration missions to the moon and beyond. Food crops grown in space experience different environmental conditions than plants grown on Earth (i.e. microgravity and spaceflight physical sciences impacts). To test the growth methods and effects of the space environment, red romaine lettuce Lactuca sativa cv. 'Outredgeous', was grown in Veggie plant growth chambers on the ISS. Microbiological food safety of the plants grown on the ISS was determined by heterotrophic plate counts to assess total microbial load for bacteria and fungi as well as screening for specific pathogens and isolate identification. Molecular characterization was completed using Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) to provide valuable information on the taxonomic composition and community structure of the plant microbiome. Chemical analyses of plant tissue were conducted to understand spaceflight-induced changes in key elements in the space diet, phenolics, anthocyanin levels, and Oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC), a measure of antioxidant capacity. Three growth tests of red romaine lettuce were completed on ISS, VEG-01A, VEG-01B, and VEG-03A. Plants were harvested using two harvest methods, either a single terminal harvest (after 33 days) or cut-and-come-again repetitive harvesting (64 days total growth). Ground controls were grown simultaneously with a delay to accommodate condition monitoring and replication. A comparison of the plant tissue returned to Earth showed leaves from the second grow-out had significantly higher bacterial counts than the preceding or subsequent growth test or any of the ground controls. Fungal counts were significantly higher on the final cut-and-come-again harvest of the third grow out. None of the potential foodborne pathogens that were screened for were detected. Bacterial and fungal isolate identification and community characterization indicated similar diversity between VEG-01A and VEG-01B growth tests, however, there appeared to be subtle differences in diversity and distribution among the three growth tests. Chemical analysis of plant tissue revealed significant variation in a few elemental data, but variation in levels of phenolics, anthocyanins, and ORAC was not significantly different. This study indicated that leafy vegetable crops could safely provide an edible supplement to astronauts' diet, and our analysis provided baseline data for continual operation of the Veggie plant growth units on ISS. This research was funded by NASA's space biology program.

Food Production↗
NASA NTRS2019

Effects of Topography on Tropical Forest Structure Depend on Climate Context

Topography affects abiotic conditions which can influence the structure, function, and dynamics of ecological communities. An increasing number of studies have demonstrated biological consequences of fine-scale topographic heterogeneity but we have a limited understanding of how We merged high-resolution (1 sq. meter) data on topography and canopy height derived from airborne lidar with ground-based data from 15 forest plots in Puerto Rico distributed along a precipitation gradient spanning ca. 800 to 3,500 mm yr(exp -1). Ground-based data included species composition, estimated above-ground biomass (AGB), and two key functional traits (wood density and leaf mass per area, LMA) that reflect resource-use strategies and a trade-off between hydraulic safety and hydraulic efficiency. We used hierarchical Bayesian models to evaluate how the interaction between topography climate is related to metrics of forest structure (i.e., canopy height and AGB), as well as taxonomic and functional alpha- and beta-diversity. Fine-scale topography (characterized with the topographic wetness index, TWI) significantly affected forest structure and the strength (and in some cases direction) of these effects varied across the precipitation gradient. In all plots, canopy height increased with topographic wetness but the effect was much stronger in dry compared to wet forest plots. In dry forest plots, topographically wetter microsites also had higher levels of AGB but in wet forest plots, topographically drier microsites had higher AGB. Fine-scale topography influenced functional composition but had only weak or non-significant effects on taxonomic and functional alpha- and beta-diversity. For instance, community-weighted wood density followed a similar pattern to AGB across plots. We also found a marginally significant association between variation of wood density and topographic heterogeneity that depended on climate context. Synthesis: The effects of fine-scale topographic heterogeneity on tropical forest structure and composition depend on the climate context. Our study demonstrates how a stronger integration of topographic heterogeneity across precipitation gradients could improve estimates of forest structure and biomass, and may provide insight to the ways that topography might mediate species responses to drought and climate change.

Tropical dry forest↗
NASA NTRS2019

Improving Earth Science Data Literacy

The improvement of scientific literacy across the public can take on a myriad of forms and activities. The vast archives of NASA’s Earth science data, as one example, reflect the agency’s ongoing commitment to producing the highest quality data, services and tools intended for enabling the public to understand the complexity of Earth systems. The focus of this presentation is to explore and reveal the specific strategies the NASA Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS) Project uses to support our very large and diverse user communities access to and understanding of these science data and services. The diversity of our subject matter, spanning the whole Earth science domain, is mirrored by our user communities which are equally as broad in their needs and abilities. ESDIS and the supporting Communication Team leverages an array of internet-based tools and communication strategies to both understand actual user needs and develop optimum pathways for improving our users’ knowledge and understanding of the data. We will focus our limited time on a few of the high-impact activities including Webinars, or video-based, on-line, interactive discussions and presentations that since their introduction in 2013 have become a staple for user-instructor interaction via the internet. Here we discuss the types of content we produce and many lessons learned on how best to use this medium for improving user literacy on the subject at hand. In addition, we include discussion of our approach to using various social media platforms and tools to bolster the awareness of our users for data and services that are likely of interest. The ESDIS project remains active in various social media campaigns where our particular blend of science, data and tools engages new users curious of how to get their science or application started using NASA-available data. We anticipate that these examples may prove to be novel in their application to improving science literacy and skill development among the public.

Lindsay, Francis↗
NASA NTRS2019

EARTHDATA PUB: A Data Publication Workflow Solution for NASA’s EOSDIS

Each NASA Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) faces the challenge of dealing with an increasingly diverse number of publishable data products from diverse data producers. Data producers, on the other hand, may experience pain points when interacting with the EOSDIS for the first time or when publishing different data at different DAACs. As a result, there has been a growing need to develop a common software framework that serves as a common interface for data producers, rigorously defines the data publication procedure for DAAC staff, facilitates the management of various data publication processes, and tracks the progress of data publication. This software should also account for the different configurations at different DAACs. Currently, two primary data publication workflow and tracking tools exist in operation at the EOSDIS: Semi-Automated ingest System (SAuS) and Data Publication workflow Portal (DAPPeR). However, neither tool is cloud-ready. Automated data processing could be managed by Cumulus, an EOSDIS cloud-based data ingest, archive and management system. However, Cumulus does not support manual tasks or on-premise implementations. We propose to develop the Earthdata Publication Minimum Viable Product (Earthdata Pub MVP) -- a cloud-hosted solution that works with both cloud and on-premise systems and implements the communications and exchange requirements generated by the Earthdata Pub information architecture team.

Rice, Justin L.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Cloud Giovanni: Reining in Costs and Improving Performance with Analytical Data Stores Using Scalable Serverless Architecture

Giovanni is the Geospatial Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure developed at NASA GES DISC which provides a simple and intuitive way to visualize, analyze, and access vast amounts of Earth science data. It receives large number of user requests each day for a variety of analysis and visualization services, which leads to the big data challenge of serving gradually increasing large data volumes with diverse statistical algorithms. We hereby propose a multi-dimensional accumulation method which provides fast and cost-efficient cloud analysis for diverse services including both area averaging and time averaging. This method involves the weighted volume integration over multiple variable dimensions (time and space), and is implemented in AWS using Athena providing serverless and highly scalable data analysis. Compared to the standard method, this approach dramatically reduced the computational time by order of magnitude with a minimal AWS cost incurred. For example, for a benchmark of 10-year area averaging over the 1x1 degree daily variable, the computational time was reduced from minutes to seconds, and the Athena cost is only $5 for 100,000 requests.

Zhang, Hailiang↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Examining Artifacts from GLOBE Program Research Symposia & Using Network Analysis Techniques to Characterize Students’ Authentic STEM Investigations

For the past several years, the GLOBE Program's International Virtual Science Symposia (IVSS) and Student Research Symposia (SRS) have provided opportunities for U.S. and international students to present their Earth science research investigations to the GLOBE community through online or in-person events. This presentation will share the techniques and findings of an evaluation study that used student posters and written reports to characterize their research investigations through multiple lenses and frameworks. The study began with a list of characteristics drawn from a literature review, an analysis of sample projects, and several reviews by expert stakeholders and scientists, which comprehensively covered diverse relevant frameworks including citizen science, student STEM learning through authentic experiences, and The GLOBE Program model. Once applied to 207 student projects, this list of codes revealed the frequency and prevalence of various qualities and experiences represented by GLOBE student research investigations. An innovative application of social network analysis techniques to the coded dataset revealed frequently cooccurring characteristics. This networking approach identified and conceptually mapped several "clusters" of characteristics that typified student projects, empirically based on the submitted projects themselves. The basic quantitative investigation of frequencies indicates the extent to which various characteristics are present in - or absent from - GLOBE SRS and IVSS projects, while the network analysis provides a descriptive framework for typifying projects. Ultimately, the descriptive framework fostered a suite of assessment tools to help The GLOBE Program's staff, scientists, and research project judges understand the diversity of student research projects. GLOBE can use these tools to identify and respond to areas of need; for instance, the descriptive framework illustrates the potential for further education and training resources related to data analysis, interpretation of data, and credibility of scientific claims. This presentation will share the novel utilization of network analysis techniques to holistically assess and react to student research contributions.

Ann Martin↗
NASA NTRS2020

The “Gearamid” Model: Transforming NASA Langley’s Role in the Aerospace Technology Ecosystem

NASA’s operating environment is evolving: numerous new emerging technologies are converging to create breakthrough solutions, many nontraditional players are partnering to create those solutions, and a diverse array of new public-private funding models are being employed. A team at NASA’s Langley Research Center (LaRC) developed a model to describe the challenges that must be addressed for an emerging breakthrough technology to penetrate the appropriate market sector, and how all the players in the relevant ecosystem can collaborate to accelerate the market infusion process. This model, which the team dubbed the “Gearamid,” originated from a narrower study to determine what LaRC should do to capitalize on and advance autonomous technology as a “game changer” in the civil aerospace domain. The elements in the original version of the Gearamid depict the various challenges that need to be addressed as an autonomous technology proceeds from initial development to market infusion. In addition, the Gearamid indicates the “actors” best suited to address each challenge element. The study team noted that all challenge elements in the Gearamid must be worked concurrently to assure successful infusion of autonomous solutions. The team also found that NASA expertise naturally positions Agency organizations—including LaRC—to lead contributions that address certain challenge elements and to play a supplemental role in other areas where entities external to NASA are actively working and investing to solve challenges. Furthermore, the team concluded that NASA can play a leadership role in coordinating efforts of the diverse entities across the civil aerospace community. After determining the center’s optimal role in the autonomous technology development ecosystem, the study team then extrapolated the Gearamid model for autonomous technologies into a broader, more general model depicting the challenge elements that must be overcome to develop and infuse any emerging technology. LaRC has embraced the Gearamid model and is using it to drive changes that will transform the center and allow it to function optimally in the evolving landscape. Given LaRC’s successes, the study team suggests that other organizations may also be able to use the Gearamid model to inform future planning/strategy efforts.

Jill M Marlowe↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

"Giovanni at 20: Consistency and Persistency in Making Earth Remote Sensing Data Available (and Useful) to the Earth Science Community"

Since its creation in the year 2000, the NASA Geospatial Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure (Giovanni) has been an exemplar of how to provide remotely-sensed satellite data and related Earth science datasets to a broad and globally diverse researcher community. One of the hallmarks of Giovanni system usage is that it is common to see practitioners of many branches of science – particularly those in fields not traditionally associated with remote-sensing data, such as animal behavior and paleooceanography – both accessing and employing datasets which the system provides. This usage pattern is attested to by the diversity of published science citing Giovanni. Giovanni has evolved through several versions, each of which increased analytical and visualization options while also enhancing ease-of-use. Information resources supporting Giovanni from the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), which hosts the system, start with basic mapping and plotting functions and extend to “How-to” recipes demonstrating interusability with other data analysis systems and software. Giovanni is now being developed for use in a cloud environment, potentially expanding datasets the system can be applied to, and also improving performance for data having high spatial and temporal resolution. This presentation covers the system’s historical success with interesting examples of Giovanni-citing research, and will apply its current capabilities to a multi-dataset examination of derecho events associated with mesoscale convective phenomena in the summer of 2020, indicating how Giovanni is prepared for ongoing support of Earth science in a changing world.

Giovanni Derecho visualization↗
NASA NTRS2020

Historical and Future Changes in Air Pollutants from CMIP6 Models

Poor air quality is currently responsible for large impacts on human health across the world. In addition, the air pollutants ozone (O3) and particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) are also radiatively active in the atmosphere and can influence Earth's climate. It is important to understand the effect of air quality and climate mitigation measures over the historical period and in different future scenarios to ascertain any impacts from air pollutants on both climate and human health. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) presents an opportunity to analyse the change in air pollutants simulated by the current generation of climate and Earth system models that include a representation of chemistry and aerosols (particulate matter). The shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) used within CMIP6 encompass a wide range of trajectories in precursor emissions and climate change, allowing for an improved analysis of future changes to air pollutants. Firstly, we conduct an evaluation of the available CMIP6 models against surface observations of O3 and PM2.5. CMIP6 models consistently overestimate observed surface O3 concentrations across most regions and in most seasons by up to 16 ppb, with a large diversity in simulated values over Northern Hemisphere continental regions. Conversely, observed surface PM2.5 concentrations are consistently underestimated in CMIP6 models by up to 10 µg m−3, particularly for the Northern Hemisphere winter months, with the largest model diversity near natural emission source regions. The biases in CMIP6 models when compared to observations of O3 and PM2.5 are similar to those found in previous studies. Over the historical period (1850–2014) large increases in both surface O3 and PM2.5 are simulated by the CMIP6 models across all regions, particularly over the mid to late 20th century, when anthropogenic emissions increase markedly. Large regional historical changes are simulated for both pollutants across East and South Asia with an annual mean increase of up to 40 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m−3 for PM2.5. In future scenarios containing strong air quality and climate mitigation measures (ssp126), annual mean concentrations of air pollutants are substantially reduced across all regions by up to 15 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m−3 for PM2.5. However, for scenarios that encompass weak action on mitigating climate and reducing air pollutant emissions (ssp370), annual mean increases in both surface O3 (up 10 ppb) and PM2.5 (up to 8 µg m−3) are simulated across most regions, although, for regions like North America and Europe small reductions in PM2.5 are simulated due to the regional reduction in precursor emissions in this scenario. A comparison of simulated regional changes in both surface O3 and PM2.5 from individual CMIP6 models highlights important regional differences due to the simulated interaction of aerosols, chemistry, climate and natural emission sources within models. The projection of regional air pollutant concentrations from the latest climate and Earth system models used within CMIP6 shows that the particular future trajectory of climate and air quality mitigation measures could have important consequences for regional air quality, human health and near-term climate. Differences between individual models emphasise the importance of understanding how future Earth system feedbacks influence natural emission sources, e.g. response of biogenic emissions under climate change.

Air pollutants↗
NASA NTRS2001

Risk analysis simulation of rover operations for Mars surface exploration

Risk management advocates have long sought to directly influence the early stages of the systems engineering process through a more effective role in system design trade studies. The principal obstacle to this has been the lack of credible ways to represent and quantify mission risk—that is, a combination of the probability of mission success (“system safety”) and science value—for the project manager and the rest of the design team. If it were possible to quantify mission risk, then the effects of proposed mission and system design changes could be calculated, and along with life-cycle costs, could be used to explore the design space more extensively and select better designs. JPL has been working to build the capability to quantify the probability of mission success using a federation of diverse simulations and models, each of which contributes some vital piece of the puzzle. The initial institutional focus has been on Mars surface operations. This ensemble computing framework enables the diverse models and simulations to work together seamlessly. Recent work at JPL has demonstrated the capability to exercise this ensemble from end-to-end using an Oracle-based database to automatically move results from one model/simulation to the next stage in the analysis.

Shishko, Robert↗