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At least 775 records · Page 43

Jovian ultraviolet auroral activity, 1981-1991

IUE observations of H2 UV emissions for the 1981-1991 period are presently used to investigate the auroral brightness distribution on the surface of Jupiter. The brightness, which is diagnostic of energy input to the atmosphere as well as of magnetospheric processes, is determined by comparing model-predicted brightnesses against empirical ones. The north and south aurorae appear to be correlated in brightness and in variations of the longitude of peak brightness. There are strong fluctuations in all the parameters of the brightness distribution on much shorter time scales than those of solar maximum-minimum.

Livengood, T. A.↗

Solid Modeling of Crew Exploration Vehicle Structure Concepts for Mass Optimization

Parametric solid and surface models of the crew exploration vehicle (CEV) command module (CM) structure concepts are developed for rapid finite element analyses, structural sizing and estimation of optimal structural mass. The effects of the structural configuration and critical design parameters on the stress distribution are visualized, examined to arrive at an efficient design. The CM structural components consisted of the outer heat shield, inner pressurized crew cabin, ring bulkhead and spars. For this study only the internal cabin pressure load case is considered. Component stress, deflection, margins of safety and mass are used as design goodness criteria. The design scenario is explored by changing the component thickness parameters and materials until an acceptable design is achieved. Aluminum alloy, titanium alloy and an advanced composite material properties are considered for the stress analysis and the results are compared as a part of lessons learned and to build up a structural component sizing knowledge base for the future CEV technology support. This independent structural analysis and the design scenario based optimization process may also facilitate better CM structural definition and rapid prototyping.

Mukhopadhyay, Vivek↗

An Approximate Solution and Master Curves for Buckling of Symmetrically Laminated Composite Cylinders

Nondimensional linear-bifurcation buckling equations for balanced, symmetrically laminated cylinders with negligible shell-wall anisotropies and subjected to uniform axial compression loads are presented. These equations are solved exactly for the practical case of simply supported ends. Nondimensional quantities are used to characterize the buckling behavior that consist of a stiffness-weighted length-to-radius parameter, a stiffness-weighted shell-thinness parameter, a shell-wall nonhomogeneity parameter, two orthotropy parameters, and a nondimensional buckling load. Ranges for the nondimensional parameters are established that encompass a wide range of laminated-wall constructions and numerous generic plots of nondimensional buckling load versus a stiffness-weighted length-to-radius ratio are presented for various combinations of the other parameters. These plots are expected to include many practical cases of interest to designers. Additionally, these plots show how the parameter values affect the distribution and size of the festoons forming each response curve and how they affect the attenuation of each response curve to the corresponding solution for an infinitely long cylinder. To aid in preliminary design studies, approximate formulas for the nondimensional buckling load are derived, and validated against the corresponding exact solution, that give the attenuated buckling response of an infinitely long cylinder in terms of the nondimensional parameters presented herein. A relatively small number of "master curves" are identified that give a nondimensional measure of the buckling load of an infinitely long cylinder as a function of the orthotropy and wall inhomogeneity parameters. These curves reduce greatly the complexity of the design-variable space as compared to representations that use dimensional quantities as design variables. As a result of their inherent simplicity, these master curves are anticipated to be useful in the ongoing development of buckling-design technology.

Nemeth, Michael P.↗

Using the Bootstrap Method for a Statistical Significance Test of Differences between Summary Histograms

A new method is proposed to compare statistical differences between summary histograms, which are the histograms summed over a large ensemble of individual histograms. It consists of choosing a distance statistic for measuring the difference between summary histograms and using a bootstrap procedure to calculate the statistical significance level. Bootstrapping is an approach to statistical inference that makes few assumptions about the underlying probability distribution that describes the data. Three distance statistics are compared in this study. They are the Euclidean distance, the Jeffries-Matusita distance and the Kuiper distance. The data used in testing the bootstrap method are satellite measurements of cloud systems called cloud objects. Each cloud object is defined as a contiguous region/patch composed of individual footprints or fields of view. A histogram of measured values over footprints is generated for each parameter of each cloud object and then summary histograms are accumulated over all individual histograms in a given cloud-object size category. The results of statistical hypothesis tests using all three distances as test statistics are generally similar, indicating the validity of the proposed method. The Euclidean distance is determined to be most suitable after comparing the statistical tests of several parameters with distinct probability distributions among three cloud-object size categories. Impacts on the statistical significance levels resulting from differences in the total lengths of satellite footprint data between two size categories are also discussed.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗

Stress Rupture Life Reliability Measures for Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) are often used for storing pressurant gases onboard spacecraft. Kevlar (DuPont), glass, carbon and other more recent fibers have all been used as overwraps. Due to the fact that overwraps are subjected to sustained loads for an extended period during a mission, stress rupture failure is a major concern. It is therefore important to ascertain the reliability of these vessels by analysis, since the testing of each flight design cannot be completed on a practical time scale. The present paper examines specifically a Weibull statistics based stress rupture model and considers the various uncertainties associated with the model parameters. The paper also examines several reliability estimate measures that would be of use for the purpose of recertification and for qualifying flight worthiness of these vessels. Specifically, deterministic values for a point estimate, mean estimate and 90/95 percent confidence estimates of the reliability are all examined for a typical flight quality vessel under constant stress. The mean and the 90/95 percent confidence estimates are computed using Monte-Carlo simulation techniques by assuming distribution statistics of model parameters based also on simulation and on the available data, especially the sample sizes represented in the data. The data for the stress rupture model are obtained from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories (LLNL) stress rupture testing program, carried out for the past 35 years. Deterministic as well as probabilistic sensitivities are examined.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗

Probabilistic Calibration of Expensive Models using Efficiently Trained Surrogates

Calibration of computational models in the presence of uncertainty is often cast as a Bayesian inference problem and solved via sampling methods, e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo. When the computational model is expensive, this task becomes intractable due to the large number of samples required to accurately estimate the posterior distribution of the calibration parameters. A popular solution to this problem is to use machine learning to develop a faster-to-evaluate, lower-fidelity substitute for the original model to serve as a surrogate while solving the inference problem. Although considered an offline cost, generating training data to construct this surrogate model can still be an expensive task in practice. An active learning algorithm is presented that focuses training on improving surrogate accuracy specifically in and around the bulk of the posterior distribution, as this is where the model is exercised during calibration. Candidate samples are drawn from families of distributions related to an approximation of the posterior. The sample maximizing predictive variance is then selected for evaluation by the original computational model, yielding a label for the training point. Iterating this approach increases efficiency relative to space filling designs (e.g., Latin hypercube sampling) by avoiding low probability points. Practical considerations are discussed, including the benefits of using a sequential Monte Carlo sampling approach, convergence heuristics, and the importance of both exploration and exploitation given that the true posterior is unknown a priori.

uncertainty quantification↗

Quantitative characterization of the spatial distribution of particles in materials: Application to materials processing

Inhomogeneities in the spatial distribution of second phase particles in engineering materials are known to affect certain mechanical properties. Progress in this area has been hampered by the lack of a convenient method for quantitative description of the spatial distribution of the second phase. This study intends to develop a broadly applicable method for the quantitative analysis and description of the spatial distribution of second phase particles. The method was designed to operate on a desktop computer. The Dirichlet tessellation technique (geometrical method for dividing an area containing an array of points into a set of polygons uniquely associated with the individual particles) was selected as the basis of an analysis technique implemented on a PC. This technique is being applied to the production of Al sheet by PM processing methods; vacuum hot pressing, forging, and rolling. The effect of varying hot working parameters on the spatial distribution of aluminum oxide particles in consolidated sheet is being studied. Changes in distributions of properties such as through-thickness near-neighbor distance correlate with hot-working reduction.

Parse, Joseph B.↗

Solar wind proton velocity distributions - Comparison of the bi-Maxwellian based 16-moment expansion with observations

The purpose of this paper is to study the possible types of velocity distributions that can be obtained from the bi-Maxwellian based 16-moment expansion of the distribution function, assuming macroscopic parameter values characteristic of the range of solar wind conditions. While previous studies also took heat flow into account, the theoretical expansions for f and the definitions of the physical moments adopted in these studies were different from those used in this paper. The choice of the 16-moment expansion and corresponding moment definitions was motivated by the fact that this is the correct generalization of the widely-used Maxwellian-based 13-moment expansion to the case where the zeroth-order distribution is a bi-Maxwellian. It is found that most of the features characteristic of solar wind proton distributions can be reproduced with the 16-moment distribution, including the appearance of secondary peaks. It is also shown how each of the physically significant velocity moments affects the shape of the distribution function.

Demars, H. G.↗

Assessment of Internal Fabric of Particulate Materials

Particle arrangement and distribution within a soil matrix has long been recognized as having significant influence on the mechanical behavior of cohesionless soils. It is well known that two soil specimens having the same grain type (e.g., quartz, feldspar, etc.), same grain size distribution and relative density (or void ratio) can display completely different mechanical behavior. Because of the different fabric configurations in the otherwise similar specimens, they are likely to have different mechanical properties such as stress-strain response, anisotropy, dilatancy, etc. Soil Fabric is defined as the arrangement of particles, particle groups and associated pore space. In the literature, fabric analysis techniques are mainly classified as destructive (e.g., specimen stabilization, thin-sectioning, and microscopy), and nondestructive techniques (e.g., magnetic resonance imaging, ultrasonic testing, x-ray radiography, and computed tomography). Quantifying the void ratio and its distribution is the main parameter used to describe the fabric of particulate materials. This paper presents a comprehensive literature review of fabric analysis techniques applied to particulate materials. In addition, the results of a comprehensive investigation to quantify void ratio of sand specimens will be presented and discussed. The sand used in the experiments in a natural, uniform rounded to sub-rounded silica sand known as F-75 banding sand with mean particle size of 0.22 mm. Uniform specimens and specimens subjected to different axial-strain levels tested under triaxial and biaxial conditions are examined to evaluate void ratio evolution and its distribution using destructive thin-sectioning and nondestructive Computed Tomography (CT) techniques. Details of a new innovative polygon generation technique called Voronoi tessellation used to quantify void ratio of microscopic images of sand grains will be presented and compared to classical Oda's method. Finally, frequency distribution of void ratio calculated using CT analysis will be presented and discussed.

Alshibi, Khalid A.↗

Probabilistic Modeling of the Renal Stone Formation Module

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic tool, used in mission planning decision making and medical systems risk assessments. The IMM project maintains a database of over 80 medical conditions that could occur during a spaceflight, documenting an incidence rate and end case scenarios for each. In some cases, where observational data are insufficient to adequately define the inflight medical risk, the IMM utilizes external probabilistic modules to model and estimate the event likelihoods. One such medical event of interest is an unpassed renal stone. Due to a high salt diet and high concentrations of calcium in the blood (due to bone depletion caused by unloading in the microgravity environment) astronauts are at a considerable elevated risk for developing renal calculi (nephrolithiasis) while in space. Lack of observed incidences of nephrolithiasis has led HRP to initiate the development of the Renal Stone Formation Module (RSFM) to create a probabilistic simulator capable of estimating the likelihood of symptomatic renal stone presentation in astronauts on exploration missions. The model consists of two major parts. The first is the probabilistic component, which utilizes probability distributions to assess the range of urine electrolyte parameters and a multivariate regression to transform estimated crystal density and size distributions to the likelihood of the presentation of nephrolithiasis symptoms. The second is a deterministic physical and chemical model of renal stone growth in the kidney developed by Kassemi et al. The probabilistic component of the renal stone model couples the input probability distributions describing the urine chemistry, astronaut physiology, and system parameters with the physical and chemical outputs and inputs to the deterministic stone growth model. These two parts of the model are necessary to capture the uncertainty in the likelihood estimate. The model will be driven by Monte Carlo simulations, continuously randomly sampling the probability distributions of the electrolyte concentrations and system parameters that are inputs into the deterministic model. The total urine chemistry concentrations are used to determine the urine chemistry activity using the Joint Expert Speciation System (JESS), a biochemistry model. Information used from JESS is then fed into the deterministic growth model. Outputs from JESS and the deterministic model are passed back to the probabilistic model where a multivariate regression is used to assess the likelihood of a stone forming and the likelihood of a stone requiring clinical intervention. The parameters used to determine to quantify these risks include: relative supersaturation (RS) of calcium oxalate, citrate/calcium ratio, crystal number density, total urine volume, pH, magnesium excretion, maximum stone width, and ureteral location. Methods and Validation: The RSFM is designed to perform a Monte Carlo simulation to generate probability distributions of clinically significant renal stones, as well as provide an associated uncertainty in the estimate. Initially, early versions will be used to test integration of the components and assess component validation and verification (V&V), with later versions used to address questions regarding design reference mission scenarios. Once integrated with the deterministic component, the credibility assessment of the integrated model will follow NASA STD 7009 requirements.

kidney stones↗

Effect of structure on current and potential distributions in porous electrode

Porous electrodes generally contain constricted macropores and localized micropores. The effects of the macropore constrictions on the resistance of a capillary were studied and an analytical model was developed for predicting the current distribution in a constricted macropore which directly includes constriction effects and does not require an empirical tortuosity parameter. The current and concentration distributions in localized micropores were also investigated and it was shown that the microporous area is fully accessible to charge and mass transfer processes. From these analyses it was concluded that the micropores primarily affect the kinetics of the interfacial processes by contributing to the interfacial area, while the macropores impose ohmic and mass transport limitations through the volume of the porous electrode.

Lanzi, Oscar↗

An overview of controls research on the NASA Langley Research Center grid

The NASA Langley Research Center has assembled a flexible grid on which control systems research can be accomplished on a two-dimensional structure that has many physically distributed sensors and actuators. The grid is a rectangular planar structure that is suspended by two cables attached to one edge so that out of plane vibrations are normal to gravity. There are six torque wheel actuators mounted to it so that torque is produced in the grid plane. Also, there are six rate gyros mounted to sense angular motion in the grid plane and eight accelerometers that measure linear acceleration normal to the grid plane. All components can be relocated to meet specific control system test requirements. Digital, analog, and hybrid control systems capability is provided in the apparatus. To date, research on this grid has been conducted in the areas of system and parameter identification, model estimation, distributed modal control, hierarchical adaptive control, and advanced redundancy management algorithms. The presentation overviews each technique and presents the most significant results generated for each area.

Montgomery, Raymond C.↗

Analysis of plasma measurements for the Geotail mission

The CPI plasma measurements from the Geotail spacecraft are currently used by a number of scientists in support of varied research projects. Measurements from the CPI hot plasma analyzer have been processed to compute one-minute averages of plasma densities, temperatures, and velocities for the period 1 Oct. 1992 - 31 July 1993. These parameters are used in a preliminary survey of the magnetotail for distances from earth of 10 to 210 earth radii. The cold plasmas within the magnetotail drift towards the midplane and are thought to be a principal source for the hot plasma sheet. A remarkable result from Geotail is the observation of cold ion beams coexisting as distinct components in the presence of hot plasma-sheet plasmas. The development and evolution of plasmoids is a topic of considerable interest in studies of the magnetotail and magnetospheric substorms. A number of possible plasmoids have been identified in the Geotail data set based upon reversals of the Z component of the magnetic field as observed with the MGF instrumentation. An intensive study of the electron and ion velocity distributions and the plasma parameters for several of these events reveals unexpected features. Collaborative work with several Geotail instrument teams and other researchers is also ongoing.

Frank, Louis A.↗

The effects of correlation on goodness of fit

Autocorrelated normal random variates were generated via computer and the effects of various levels of correlation on goodness of fit problems were studied. The results are useful in determining the distribution or estimating the parameters of populations that correlate observations such as wind speeds and temperature. The model used to generate the autocorrelated data is an autoregressive process of order 1. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov and chi-square statistics are used in the analysis. It was observed in the simulation that high positive correlations tend to shift the sample mean away from the population mean and negative correlations tend to shift the sample mean towards the population mean. In many cases, it was observed that positive and negative correlations tend to decrease the standard deviation. However, since this did not occur in all cases, no definite conclusion can be made regarding the standard deviation. Since the autoregressive process is a linear transformation, it is not surprising that normality was preserved. However, a possible extension of this problem could be to generate non-normal data and observe how the distribution is affected by correlation. Another extension might utilize another model such as autoregressive of order k or a moving average process of order k.

Kitchens, L. J.↗

Snow Microphysical Retrieval from the NASA D3R Radar During ICE-POP 2018

A method is developed to use both polarimetric and dual-frequency radar measurements to retrieve microphysical properties of falling snow. It is applied to the Ku- and Ka-band measurements of the NASA dual-polarization, dual-frequency Doppler radar (D3R) obtained during the International Collaborative Experiments for PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic winter games (ICE-POP 2018) field campaign and incorporates the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator (ARTS) microwave singles cattering property database for oriented particles. The retrieval uses optimal estimation to solve for several parameters that describe the particle size distribution (PSD), relative contribution of pristine, aggregate, and rimed ice species, and the orientation distribution along an entire radial simultaneously. Examination of Jacobian matrices and averaging kernels shows that the dual-wavelength ratio (DWR) measurements provide information regarding the characteristic particle size, and to a lesser extent, the rime fraction and shape parameter of the size distribution, whereas the polarimetric measurements provide information regarding the mass fraction of pristine particles and their characteristic size and orientation distribution. Thus, by combining the dual-frequency and polarimetric measurements, some ambiguities can be resolved that should allow a better determination of the PSD and bulk microphysical properties (e.g., snowfall rate) than can be retrieved from single-frequency polarimetric measurements or dual-frequency, single-polarization measurements. The D3R ICE-POP retrievals were validated using Precipitation Imaging Package (PIP) and Pluvio weighing gauge measurements taken nearby at the May Hills ground site. The PIP measures the snow PSD directly, and its measurements can be used to derived the snowfall rate (volumetric and water equivalent), mean volume-weighted particle size, and effective density, as well as particle aspect ratio and orientation. Four retrieval experiments were performed to evaluate the utility of different measurement combinations: Kuonly, DWR-only, Ku-pol, and All-obs. In terms of correlation, the volumetric snowfall rate (r D 0:95) and snow water equivalent rate (r D 0:92) were best retrieved by the Ku-pol method, while the DWR-only method had the lowest magnitude bias for these parameters (-31% and -8 %, respectively). The methods that incorporated DWR also had the best correlation to particle size (r D 0:74 and r D 0:71 for DWR-only and All-obs, respectively), although none of the methods retrieved density particularly well (r D 0:43 for Allobs). The ability of the measurements to retrieve mean aspect ratio was also inconclusive, although the polarimetric methods (Ku-pol and All-obs) had reduced biases and mean absolute error (MAE) relative to the Ku-only and DWR-only methods. The significant biases in particle size and snowfall rate appeared to be related to biases in the measured DWR, emphasizing the need for accurate DWR measurements and frequent calibration in future D3R deployments.

S Joseph Munchak↗

Further developments in cloud statistics for computer simulations

This study is a part of NASA's continued program to provide global statistics of cloud parameters for computer simulation. The primary emphasis was on the development of the data bank of the global statistical distributions of cloud types and cloud layers and their applications in the simulation of the vertical distributions of in-cloud parameters such as liquid water content. These statistics were compiled from actual surface observations as recorded in Standard WBAN forms. Data for a total of 19 stations were obtained and reduced. These stations were selected to be representative of the 19 primary cloud climatological regions defined in previous studies of cloud statistics. Using the data compiled in this study, a limited study was conducted of the hemogeneity of cloud regions, the latitudinal dependence of cloud-type distributions, the dependence of these statistics on sample size, and other factors in the statistics which are of significance to the problem of simulation. The application of the statistics in cloud simulation was investigated. In particular, the inclusion of the new statistics in an expanded multi-step Monte Carlo simulation scheme is suggested and briefly outlined.

Chang, D. T.↗

Model of the high-latitude ionospheric convection pattern during southward interplanetary magnetic field using DE 2 data

Data from the polar-orbiting satellite DE 2 are used to calculate one-dimensional electrostatic potential distributions across the polar cap region. Using passes that lie within + or - 3 hours MLT of the dawn-dusk line, various parameters of the polar potential distribution (location and magnitude of the maxima and minima, location of the zero potential point, etc.) are analyzed in relation to each other and to the IMF. The resulting dependences are used to derive a two-dimensional model of the distribution of the electrostatic potential in the high-latitude ionosphere during times of southward IMF. This model can be generated using as inputs either the ionospheric potential parameters or, based on the relationships analyzed here, the IMF conditions. The capabilities of the resulting mathematical model are illustrated, and the importance of retaining a flexibility in the model to accommodate individual observations is emphasized.

Hairston, M. R.↗

The Effect of Stochastically Varying Creep Parameters on Residual Stresses in Ceramic Matrix Composites

Constituent properties, along with volume fraction, have a first order effect on the microscale fields within a composite material and influence the macroscopic response. Therefore, there is a need to assess the significance of stochastic variation in the constituent properties of composites at the higher scales. The effect of variability in the parameters controlling the time-dependent behavior, in a unidirectional SCS-6 SiC fiber-reinforced RBSN matrix composite lamina, on the residual stresses induced during processing is investigated numerically. The generalized method of cells micromechanics theory is utilized to model the ceramic matrix composite lamina using a repeating unit cell. The primary creep phases of the constituents are approximated using a Norton-Bailey, steady state, power law creep model. The effect of residual stresses on the proportional limit stress and strain to failure of the composite is demonstrated. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted using a normal distribution for the power law parameters and the resulting residual stress distributions were predicted.

residual stress↗