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DOE OSTI2025

AI Improves the Accuracy, Reliability, and Economic Value of Continental‐Scale Flood Predictions

Accurate flood early warnings are critical to minimize damage and loss of life. Current large‐scale operational forecasting systems, however, have limited accuracy, description of uncertainty, and computational efficiency. While Artificial intelligence (AI) can address these limitations in principle, the accuracy and reliability of AI forecasts have thus far proven insufficient. Here we present a novel hybrid framework that integrates AI‐based machinery termed Errorcastnet (ECN) with the National Water Model (NWM) to showcase the potential of ensemble AI flood forecasts over the contiguous U.S. ECN boosts prediction accuracy four‐ to six‐fold across lead times of 1–10 days, while providing uncertainty quantification. It also outperforms Google's state‐of‐the‐art global AI model. ECN‐based forecasts offer superior economic value (up to four‐fold) for decision‐making as compared to those from NWM alone. ECN performs well in varied ecoregions, physiography, and land management conditions. The framework is computationally efficient, enabling national‐scale ensemble forecasts in minutes.

artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Baltimore Community Weather Station Network: Filling the Urban Measurement Desert

Quantification and understanding of how heat, rainfall, and air quality vary within cities are needed to identify the area with the worst conditions, develop solutions to extreme weather, and assess the impact of proposed policies. However, neighborhood-level variability is not well quantified because there are few environmental measurement stations within cities. In Baltimore City, a community-based network of weather stations to address this issue has been developed through a partnership between universities, state agencies, and Baltimore residents. The weather stations are hosted by community partners, and the data collected are enabling the mapping of urban weather across the city and the testing of models and proposed mitigation strategies. In addition, the network provides direct community involvement, with resulting benefits of increased community engagement, education, and empowerment. Researchers have an opportunity to democratize the scientific process and ensure that local knowledge and lived experiences of city residents inform future decision-making. The approach could be used as a model for other cities that apply similar monitoring instruments for other environmental exposures.

community↗

DOE OSTI2026

Historical and Future Global Irrigation Energy Consumption by Fuel and Region

Irrigation energy use is a significant component of agricultural production costs, contributing directly to the energy and emissions intensity of crop production and ultimately to food prices. Understanding the existing structure of irrigation energy consumption help achieve food-energy-water security and environmental goals. We present a comprehensive global data set detailing country-level irrigation energy consumption, emphasizing the comparative use of electric, diesel, and emerging solar pumps. To our knowledge, no such data set exists. We draw from a literature review to develop a logistic transformed regression model to estimate the shares of fuel sources for irrigation across countries over historical years to construct a global data set of country-level irrigation energy consumption by multiple fuel sources. Additionally, we compare our estimates of irrigation energy use with agricultural energy use as reported by the International Energy Agency and other external sources. We then use this data to project future irrigation energy use with the Global Change Analysis Model, which is a multisector dynamics model, to showcase the usage of this data set. Projections under the reference scenario show a global shift in fuel types for irrigation pumping, while patterns vary across regions, with India and Pakistan leading in solar-powered irrigation growth and countries like the USA and China continuing to rely primarily on grid electricity. This data set provides a resource to understand the role of irrigation fuel choices within the broader energy sector, as well as the connected agricultural, land use, and water sectors under alternative future scenarios, enabling informed decision making toward efficient agricultural practices.

Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Novel Deep Learning Transformer Model for Short to Sub‐Seasonal Streamflow Forecast

Accurate short-to-subseasonal streamflow forecasts are becoming crucial for effective water management in an increasingly variable climate. However, streamflow forecast remains challenging over extended lead times, uncertainty in meteorological inputs, and increased frequency and variability in extreme weather and climate events. We implemented a Future Time Series Transformer (FutureTST) model for streamflow forecasting that separately integrates past meteorological and streamflow data while incorporating future weather conditions. FutureTST achieves a mean Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.82 to 0.67 for 1- to 30-day streamflow forecasts. Incorporating upstream streamflow information improved forecast accuracy by up to 10%. During real-time forecast, FutureTST maintains higher forecast skills of 9.03 for 1-day and 5.74 for 14-day forecasts. In contrast, calibrated process-based hydrological model forecasts become unreliable beyond a 4-day lead time. Our findings demonstrate the potential of FutureTST as a reliable streamflow forecasting tool that offers a valuable addition to operational flood monitoring systems and climate-resilient decision-making.

Ambika, Anukesh Krishnankutty [Oak Ridge National ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optoelectronic polymer memristors with dynamic control for power-efficient in-sensor edge computing

Abstract As the demand for edge platforms in artificial intelligence increases, including mobile devices and security applications, the surge in data influx into edge devices often triggers interference and suboptimal decision-making. There is a pressing need for solutions emphasizing low power consumption and cost-effectiveness. In-sensor computing systems employing memristors face challenges in optimizing energy efficiency and streamlining manufacturing due to the necessity for multiple physical processing components. Here, we introduce low-power organic optoelectronic memristors with synergistic optical and mV-level electrical tunable operation for a dynamic “control-on-demand” architecture. Integrating signal sensing, featuring, and processing within the same memristors enables the realization of each in-sensor analogue reservoir computing module, and minimizes circuit integration complexity. The system achieves 97.15% fingerprint recognition accuracy while maintaining a minimal reservoir size and ultra-low energy consumption. Furthermore, we leverage wafer-scale solution techniques and flexible substrates for optimal memristor fabrication. By centralizing core functionalities on the same in-sensor platform, we propose a resilient and adaptable framework for energy-efficient and economical edge computing.

Optics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Perovskite neural trees

Trees are used by animals, humans and machines to classify information and make decisions. Natural tree structures displayed by synapses of the brain involves potentiation and depression capable of branching and is essential for survival and learning. Demonstration of such features in synthetic matter is challenging due to the need to host a complex energy landscape capable of learning, memory and electrical interrogation. We report experimental realization of tree-like conductance states at room temperature in strongly correlated perovskite nickelates by modulating proton distribution under high speed electric pulses. This demonstration represents physical realization of ultrametric trees, a concept from number theory applied to the study of spin glasses in physics that inspired early neural network theory dating almost forty years ago. We apply the tree-like memory features in spiking neural networks to demonstrate high fidelity object recognition, and in future can open new directions for neuromorphic computing and artificial intelligence.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Forecasting influenza activity using machine-learned mobility map

Human mobility is a primary driver of infectious disease spread. However, existing data is limited in availability, coverage, granularity, and timeliness. Data-driven forecasts of disease dynamics are crucial for decision-making by health officials and private citizens alike. In this work, we focus on a machine-learned anonymized mobility map (hereon referred to as AMM) aggregated over hundreds of millions of smartphones and evaluate its utility in forecasting epidemics. We factor AMM into a metapopulation model to retrospectively forecast influenza in the USA and Australia. We show that the AMM model performs on-par with those based on commuter surveys, which are sparsely available and expensive. We also compare it with gravity and radiation based models of mobility, and find that the radiation model’s performance is quite similar to AMM and commuter flows. Additionally, we demonstrate our model’s ability to predict disease spread even across state boundaries. Our work contributes towards developing timely infectious disease forecasting at a global scale using human mobility datasets expanding their applications in the area of infectious disease epidemiology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Real-space observation of ergodicity transitions in artificial spin ice

Abstract Ever since its introduction by Ludwig Boltzmann, the ergodic hypothesis became a cornerstone analytical concept of equilibrium thermodynamics and complex dynamic processes. Examples of its relevance range from modeling decision-making processes in brain science to economic predictions. In condensed matter physics, ergodicity remains a concept largely investigated via theoretical and computational models. Here, we demonstrate the direct real-space observation of ergodicity transitions in a vertex-frustrated artificial spin ice. Using synchrotron-based photoemission electron microscopy we record thermally-driven moment fluctuations as a function of temperature, allowing us to directly observe transitions between ergodicity-breaking dynamics to system freezing, standing in contrast to simple trends observed for the temperature-dependent vertex populations, all while the entropy features arise as a function of temperature. These results highlight how a geometrically frustrated system, with thermodynamics strictly adhering to local ice-rule constraints, runs back-and-forth through periods of ergodicity-breaking dynamics. Ergodicity breaking and the emergence of memory is important for emergent computation, particularly in physical reservoir computing. Our work serves as further evidence of how fundamental laws of thermodynamics can be experimentally explored via real-space imaging.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of climate change, population growth, and power sector decarbonization on urban building energy use

Climate, technologies, and socio-economic changes will influence future building energy use in cities. However, current low-resolution regional and state-level analyses are insufficient to reliably assist city-level decision-making. Here we estimate mid-century hourly building energy consumption in 277 U.S. urban areas using a bottom-up approach. The projected future climate change results in heterogeneous changes in energy use intensity (EUI) among urban areas, particularly under higher warming scenarios, with on average 10.1–37.7% increases in the frequency of peak building electricity EUI but over 110% increases in some cities. For each 1 °C of warming, the mean city-scale space-conditioning EUI experiences an average increase/decrease of ~14%/ ~ 10% for space cooling/heating. Heterogeneous city-scale building source energy use changes are primarily driven by population and power sector changes, on average ranging from –9% to 40% with consistent south–north gradients under different scenarios. Across the scenarios considered here, the changes in city-scale building source energy use, when averaged over all urban areas, are as follows: –2.5% to –2.0% due to climate change, 7.3% to 52.2% due to population growth, and –17.1% to –8.9% due to power sector decarbonization. Our findings underscore the necessity of considering intercity heterogeneity when developing sustainable and resilient urban energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Deep learning at the edge enables real-time streaming ptychographic imaging

Abstract Coherent imaging techniques provide an unparalleled multi-scale view of materials across scientific and technological fields, from structural materials to quantum devices, from integrated circuits to biological cells. Driven by the construction of brighter sources and high-rate detectors, coherent imaging methods like ptychography are poised to revolutionize nanoscale materials characterization. However, these advancements are accompanied by significant increase in data and compute needs, which precludes real-time imaging, feedback and decision-making capabilities with conventional approaches. Here, we demonstrate a workflow that leverages artificial intelligence at the edge and high-performance computing to enable real-time inversion on X-ray ptychography data streamed directly from a detector at up to 2 kHz. The proposed AI-enabled workflow eliminates the oversampling constraints, allowing low-dose imaging using orders of magnitude less data than required by traditional methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ecological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes

Forecasting weather has become commonplace, but as society faces novel and uncertain environmental conditions there is a critical need to forecast ecology. Forewarning of ecosystem conditions during climate extremes can support proactive decision-making, yet applications of ecological forecasts are still limited. We showcase the capacity for existing marine management tools to transition to a forecasting configuration and provide skilful ecological forecasts up to 12 months in advance. The management tools use ocean temperature anomalies to help mitigate whale entanglements and sea turtle bycatch, and we show that forecasts can forewarn of human-wildlife interactions caused by unprecedented climate extremes. We further show that regionally downscaled forecasts are not a necessity for ecological forecasting and can be less skilful than global forecasts if they have fewer ensemble members. Our results highlight capacity for ecological forecasts to be explored for regions without the infrastructure or capacity to regionally downscale, ultimately helping to improve marine resource management and climate adaptation globally.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Global projections of heat exposure of older adults

The global population is aging at the same time as heat exposures are increasing due to climate change. Age structure, and its biological and socio-economic drivers, determine populations’ vulnerability to high temperatures. Here we combine age-stratified demographic projections with downscaled temperature projections to mid-century and find that chronic exposure to heat doubles across all warming scenarios. Moreover, >23% of the global population aged 69+ will inhabit climates whose 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature exceeds the critical threshold of 37.5 °C, compared with 14% today, exposing an additional 177–246 million older adults to dangerous acute heat. Effects are most severe in Asia and Africa, which also have the lowest adaptive capacity. Our results facilitate regional heat risk assessments and inform public health decision-making.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Autonomous closed-loop mechanistic investigation of molecular electrochemistry via automation

Abstract Electrochemical research often requires stringent combinations of experimental parameters that are demanding to manually locate. Recent advances in automated instrumentation and machine-learning algorithms unlock the possibility for accelerated studies of electrochemical fundamentals via high-throughput, online decision-making. Here we report an autonomous electrochemical platform that implements an adaptive, closed-loop workflow for mechanistic investigation of molecular electrochemistry. As a proof-of-concept, this platform autonomously identifies and investigates an EC mechanism, an interfacial electron transfer ( E step) followed by a solution reaction ( C step), for cobalt tetraphenylporphyrin exposed to a library of organohalide electrophiles. The generally applicable workflow accurately discerns the EC mechanism’s presence amid negative controls and outliers, adaptively designs desired experimental conditions, and quantitatively extracts kinetic information of the C step spanning over 7 orders of magnitude, from which mechanistic insights into oxidative addition pathways are gained. This work opens opportunities for autonomous mechanistic discoveries in self-driving electrochemistry laboratories without manual intervention.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Learning nonlinear operators in latent spaces for real-time predictions of complex dynamics in physical systems

Abstract Predicting complex dynamics in physical applications governed by partial differential equations in real-time is nearly impossible with traditional numerical simulations due to high computational cost. Neural operators offer a solution by approximating mappings between infinite-dimensional Banach spaces, yet their performance degrades with system size and complexity. We propose an approach for learning neural operators in latent spaces, facilitating real-time predictions for highly nonlinear and multiscale systems on high-dimensional domains. Our method utilizes the deep operator network architecture on a low-dimensional latent space to efficiently approximate underlying operators. Demonstrations on material fracture, fluid flow prediction, and climate modeling highlight superior prediction accuracy and computational efficiency compared to existing methods. Notably, our approach enables approximating large-scale atmospheric flows with millions of degrees, enhancing weather and climate forecasts. Here we show that the proposed approach enables real-time predictions that can facilitate decision-making for a wide range of applications in science and engineering.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

A frugal CRISPR kit for equitable and accessible education in gene editing and synthetic biology

Equitable and accessible education in life sciences, bioengineering, and synthetic biology is crucial for training the next generation of scientists, fostering transparency in public decision-making, and ensuring biotechnology can benefit a wide-ranging population. As a groundbreaking technology for genome engineering, CRISPR has transformed research and therapeutics. However, hands-on exposure to this technology in educational settings remains limited due to the extensive resources required for CRISPR experiments. Here, we develop CRISPRkit, an affordable kit designed for gene editing and regulation in high school education. CRISPRkit eliminates the need for specialized equipment, prioritizes biosafety, and utilizes cost-effective reagents. By integrating CRISPRi gene regulation, colorful chromoproteins, cell-free transcription-translation systems, smartphone-based quantification, and an in-house automated algorithm (CRISPectra), our kit offers an inexpensive (~$2) and user-friendly approach to performing and analyzing CRISPR experiments, without the need for a traditional laboratory setup. Experiments conducted by high school students in classroom settings highlight the kit’s utility for reliable CRISPRkit experiments. Furthermore, CRISPRkit provides a modular and expandable platform for genome engineering, and we demonstrate its applications for controlling fluorescent proteins and metabolic pathways such as melanin production. We envision CRISPRkit will facilitate biotechnology education for communities of diverse socioeconomic and geographic backgrounds.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Gaps and ways forward in atmospheric blocking and extreme weather research

Atmospheric blocking often results in significant weather extremes, such as heatwaves, droughts, cold spells, and floods in mid-latitude regions. However, the physical processes behind blocking and its response to climate change are not well understood, which undermines predictions and decision-making for climate mitigation and adaptation. As a phenomenon with a timescale at the interface of weather and climate, blocking interacts with various elements of the climate system and connects short-term weather events to long-term climate extremes. Understanding atmospheric blocking is crucial, given that climate change may impact its frequency, duration, and geographic distribution. This perspective discusses new experimental approaches to improve our understanding of this important subject.

Wang, Lei [Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (↗

DOE OSTI2022

Autonomous scanning probe microscopy investigations over WS2 and Au{111}

Abstract Individual atomic defects in 2D materials impact their macroscopic functionality. Correlating the interplay is challenging, however, intelligent hyperspectral scanning tunneling spectroscopy (STS) mapping provides a feasible solution to this technically difficult and time consuming problem. Here, dense spectroscopic volume is collected autonomously via Gaussian process regression, where convolutional neural networks are used in tandem for spectral identification. Acquired data enable defect segmentation, and a workflow is provided for machine-driven decision making during experimentation with capability for user customization. We provide a means towards autonomous experimentation for the benefit of both enhanced reproducibility and user-accessibility. Hyperspectral investigations on WS 2 sulfur vacancy sites are explored, which is combined with local density of states confirmation on the Au{111} herringbone reconstruction. Chalcogen vacancies, pristine WS 2 , Au face-centered cubic, and Au hexagonal close-packed regions are examined and detected by machine learning methods to demonstrate the potential of artificial intelligence for hyperspectral STS mapping.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Distilling physical origins of hardness in multi-principal element alloys directly from ensemble neural network models

Abstract Despite a plethora of data being generated on the mechanical behavior of multi-principal element alloys, a systematic assessment remains inaccessible via Edisonian approaches. We approach this challenge by considering the specific case of alloy hardness, and present a machine-learning framework that captures the essential physical features contributing to hardness and allows high-throughput exploration of multi-dimensional compositional space. The model, tested on diverse datasets, was used to explore and successfully predict hardness in Al x Ti y (CrFeNi) 1- x - y , Hf x Co y (CrFeNi) 1- x - y and Al x (TiZrHf) 1- x systems supported by data from density-functional theory predicted phase stability and ordering behavior. The experimental validation of hardness was done on TiZrHfAl x . The selected systems pose diverse challenges due to the presence of ordering and clustering pairs, as well as vacancy-stabilized novel structures. We also present a detailed model analysis that integrates local partial-dependencies with a compositional-stimulus and model-response study to derive material-specific insights from the decision-making process.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗