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DOE OSTI2024

MRPP UO x Product Recover System Upgrade

The Material Recovery Pilot Plant (MRPP) produces U 3 O 8 /OU 3 product in powder form. This product must be collected, and cyclonic separators are an efficient method for collecting particles from an air stream. However, the M10 SafeVac currently installed at MRPP has design flaws and is failing. A new, semi-custom cyclonic separator from Hanningfield has been designed and ordered to replace the SafeVac. The Hanningfield model will be more efficient and better designed to suit the recovery at MRPP, increasing the quality of research produced at the plant. Unit cost is $118,000 with a 24 week lead time. It is expected to be operational by January 2025.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Turbine Damage Probability

Damage probability maps for offshore wind turbines exposed to tropical cyclones (TCs) under both historical and future climate scenarios along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts are presented in this dataset. TCs are generated using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT), forced by CMIP6 historical and future global climate simulations. Maximum wind speeds for 20- and 50-year TCs are processed through a fragility function specific to offshore wind (OSW) turbines in order to estimate the probability of damage – specifically yielding and buckling – based on wind speed intensity.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Geographic Shift and Environment Change of U.S. Tornado Activities in a Warming Climate

Even with ever-increasing societal interest in tornado activities engendering catastrophes of loss of life and property damage, the long-term change in the geographic location and environment of tornado activity centers over the last six decades (1954–2018), and its relationship with climate warming in the U.S., is still unknown or not robustly proved scientifically. Utilizing discriminant analysis, we show a statistically significant geographic shift of U.S. tornado activity center (i.e., Tornado Alley) under warming conditions, and we identify five major areas of tornado activity in the new Tornado Alley that were not identified previously. By contrasting warm versus cold years, we demonstrate that the shift of relative warm centers is coupled with the shifts in low pressure and tornado activity centers. The warm and moist air carried by low-level flow from the Gulf of Mexico combined with upward motion acts to fuel convection over the tornado activity centers. Employing composite analyses using high resolution reanalysis data, we further demonstrate that high tornado activities in the U.S. are associated with stronger cyclonic circulation and baroclinicity than low tornado activities, and the high tornado activities are coupled with stronger low-level wind shear, stronger upward motion, and higher convective available potential energy (CAPE) than low tornado activities. The composite differences between high-event and low-event years of tornado activity are identified for the first time in terms of wind shear, upward motion, CAPE, cyclonic circulation and baroclinicity, although some of these environmental variables favorable for tornado development have been discussed in previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Wintertime extreme warming events in the high Arctic: characteristics, drivers, trends, and the role of atmospheric rivers

Abstract. An extreme warming event near the North Pole, with 2 m temperature rising above 0 °C, was observed in late December 2015. This specific event has been attributed to cyclones and their associated moisture intrusions. However, little is known about the characteristics and drivers of similar events in the historical record. Here, using data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis, version 5 (ERA5), we study these winter extreme warming events with 2 m temperature over a grid point above 0 °C over the high Arctic (poleward of 80° N) that occurred during 1980–2021. In ERA5, such wintertime extreme warming events can only be found over the Atlantic sector. They occur rarely over many grid points, with a total absence during some winters. Furthermore, even when occurring, they tend to be short-lived, with the majority of the events lasting for less than a day. By examining their surface energy budget, we found that these events transition with increasing latitude from a regime dominated by turbulent heat flux into the one dominated by downward longwave radiation. Positive sea level pressure anomalies which resemble blocking over northern Eurasia are identified as a key ingredient in driving these events, as they can effectively deflect the eastward propagating cyclones poleward, leading to intense moisture and heat intrusions into the high Arctic. Using an atmospheric river (AR) detection algorithm, the roles of ARs in contributing to the occurrence of these extreme warming events defined at the grid-point scale are explicitly quantified. The importance of ARs in inducing these events increases with latitude. Poleward of about 83° N, 100 % of these events occurred under AR conditions, corroborating that ARs were essential in contributing to the occurrence of these events. Over the past 4 decades, both the frequency, duration, and magnitude of these events have been increasing significantly. As the Arctic continues to warm, these events are likely to increase in both frequency, duration, and magnitude, with great implications for the local sea ice, hydrological cycle, and ecosystem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Detection of atmospheric rivers with inline uncertainty quantification: TECA-BARD v1.0.1

It has become increasingly common for researchers to utilize methods that identify weather features in climate models. There is an increasing recognition that the uncertainty associated with choice of detection method may affect our scientific understanding. For example, results from the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) indicate that there are a broad range of plausible atmospheric river (AR) detectors and that scientific results can depend on the algorithm used. There are similar examples from the literature on extratropical cyclones and tropical cyclones. It is therefore imperative to develop detection techniques that explicitly quantify the uncertainty associated with the detection of events. We seek to answer the following question: given a “plausible” AR detector, how does uncertainty in the detector quantitatively impact scientific results? We develop a large dataset of global AR counts, manually identified by a set of eight researchers with expertise in atmospheric science, which we use to constrain parameters in a novel AR detection method. We use a Bayesian framework to sample from the set of AR detector parameters that yield AR counts similar to the expert database of AR counts; this yields a set of “plausible” AR detectors from which we can assess quantitative uncertainty. This probabilistic AR detector has been implemented in the Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis (TECA), which allows for efficient processing of petabyte-scale datasets. We apply the TECA Bayesian AR Detector, TECA-BARD v1.0.1, to the MERRA-2 reanalysis and show that the sign of the correlation between global AR count and El Niño–Southern Oscillation depends on the set of parameters used.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

IPN Absorption Coefficients

The dataset contains aerosol light absorption and scattering coefficients measured by three single-wavelength Integrated Photoacoustic Nephelometers (IPN). The absorption coefficients were measured at 405, 721, and 1047 nm, while the scattering coefficients were measured at 405 and 721 nm. The single scattering albedo (SSA) at 405 and 721 nm were also calculated from the IPN measurements. The three IPNs shared a common inlet without impactor/cyclone in July; in August, a PM2.5 cyclone inlet was installed to reduce measurement noise and improve data quality. The 721-nm IPN experienced laser shutdown issues, causing missing of a large fraction of the 721-nm measurements, especially in July. As described before, the 721-nm laser issue was less frequent in August after the cyclone installation, improving the data completeness and quality. The IPN raw data were noisy, making identifying patterns and trends difficult; therefore, the hourly average data are recommended over the raw data. The hourly average data were cross-checked with the filter-based TAP and PSAP measurements, which showed that their patterns, trends, and peaks matched. However, due to the differences in working mechanisms and principles of the filter-based and photoacoustic particle-phase instruments, the IPN measurements are lower than the filter-based measurements despite that they have consistent patterns, trends, and peaks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

MSD CoP Webinar: AI and Extreme Events - Overcoming Data Challenges for Improved Characterization of Climate Extremes

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Artificial Intelligence (AI) models require large volumes of data for training and testing. Data requirements present challenges for using AI to explore extreme events with limited observational data. This webinar will showcase two innovative methods developed by part of the European Climate Intelligence (CLINT) project to overcome data challenges and harness AI to improve our understanding of climate extremes. Dr. Ascenso will present his research on data augmentation methods to improve estimates of tropical cyclones using satellite data. His presentation will review established methods for data augmentation and explore opportunities and challenges for using generative AI to generate images of extreme, life-threatening tropical cyclones. Next, Dr. Plesiat will present his research on deep learning techniques to overcome limited observational data sets. His presentation will illustrate deep learning methods to develop AI reconstructions of four climate indices across Europe. Presenters : Dr. Guido Ascenso (post-doctoral researcher, Politecnico di Milano); Dr. Étienne Plésiat (German Climate Computing Centre - DKRZ) Moderator(s): Stefano Galelli (MSD CoP WG Co-Lead), David Gold (MSD CoP WG Co-Lead), Jillian Sturtevant (MSD CoP WG Communications Officer), Matteo Giuliani (Politecnico di Milano, MSD CoP WG Member, Moderator and Organizer) This webinar was held on: October 11, 2024 from 11AM - 1PM ET

AI↗

NASA NTRS1975

The measurement of winds over the ocean from Skylab with application to measuring and forecasting typhoons and hurricanes

On Skylab, a combination microwave radar-radiometer (S193) made measurements in a tropical hurricane (AVA), a tropical storm, and various extratropical wind systems. The winds at each cell scanned by the instrument were determined by objective numerical analysis techniques. The measured radar backscatter is compared to the analyzed winds and shown to provide an accurate method for measuring winds from space. An operational version of the instrument on an orbiting satellite will be able to provide the kind of measurements in tropical cyclones available today only by expensive and dangerous aircraft reconnaissance. Additionally, the specifications of the wind field in the tropical boundary layer should contribute to improved accuracy of tropical cyclone forecasts made with numerical weather predictions models currently being applied to the tropical atmosphere.

Cardone, V. J.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Planetary meteorology - A new perspective on the earth's weather

Meteorological observations of other planets which may contribute to an understanding of the meteorological processes on the earth are discussed. The high solar input and extremely low rotation rate of Venus simplify the analysis of the interaction of solar energy with the atmosphere. The dust present in the atmosphere of Mars may provide a useful model for studying the effects of anthropogenic aerosols in the atmosphere of earth. Observations of Mars may also be expected to yield information on the evolution of severe storms and on atmospheric tides. The belts and zones in the Jovian atmosphere bear some similarities to cyclones on earth, although they are produced differently; careful modeling of Jupiter's atmosphere may cast light on terrestrial cyclonic activity.

Joels, K.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Barotropic instability in relation to the generation of synoptic-scale atmospheric vortices

At mid-latitudes, where baroclinicity predominates, barotropic instability cannot account for the development of a cyclone. Barotropic models rarely predict the formation of extratropical cyclones. However, after large-scale disturbances have developed due to baroclinic instability, further development may be aided by barotropic instability. In the present paper, an attempt is made to relate barotropic instability to the generation of synoptic-scale atmospheric vortices, using the synoptic data of the tornado outbreak over the area of the United States on April 3, 1974. A barotropic instability analysis of wind profiles shows that the atmosphere above the area hit by the tornado was barotropically most unstable during the outbreak. This indicates that barotropic instability may have been synoptically associated with the outbreak. The need to study additional cases is pointed out

Tseng, C.-Y.↗

NASA NTRS1977

On the hysteresis of the sea surface and its applicability to wave height predictions

Because of the low dissipation rate of wave energy on the ocean's surface, the wave height at some location and time must be dependent upon wind fields in existence there at previous times and upon swell propagated there from other regions. To study these relationships, significant wave height (SWH) measurements from the Geos-3 radar altimeter are used in conjunction with anemometer windspeed measurements from weather ships, L, C, and R. During the passage of large cyclonic disturbances near the fixed locations of these vessels in the North Atlantic in February 1976, distinct hysteresis profiles that characterize the sea's memory during generation and dissipation conditions are observed. Examples are given that demonstrate the influences of cyclone intensity, movement, velocity, and shape on the configuration of these profiles.

Parsons, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Covariance analyses of satellite-derived mesoscale wind fields

Statistical structure functions have been computed independently for nine satellite-derived mesoscale wind fields that were obtained on two different days. Small cumulus clouds were tracked at 5 min intervals, but since these clouds occurred primarily in the warm sectors of midlatitude cyclones the results cannot be considered representative of the circulations within cyclones in general. The field structure varied considerably with time and was especially affected if mesoscale features were observed. The wind fields on the 2 days studied were highly anisotropic with large gradients in structure occurring approximately normal to the mean flow. Structure function calculations for the combined set of satellite winds were used to estimate random error present in the fields. It is concluded for these data that the random error in vector winds derived from cumulus cloud tracking using high-frequency satellite data is less than 1.75 m/s. Spatial correlation functions were also computed for the nine data sets. Normalized correlation functions were considerably different for u and v components and decreased rapidly as data point separation increased for both components. The correlation functions for transverse and longitudinal components decreased less rapidly as data point separation increased.

Maddox, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Global weather research

Modeling, prediction, and analysis of global meteorological phenomena influencing the large scale behavior of the atmosphere are summarized. Prediction of global weather phenomena based on satellite data is discussed and models of global phenomena developed. The atmospheric general circulation model (AGCE) is reviewed, axisymmetric flow calculated, and axisymmetric states in cylindrical, spherical, three dimensional, and spin up numerical models for AGCE described. The role of latent heat release in baroclinic waves, latent heat and cyclonic systems, and a theoretical study of baroclinic flow related to the AGCE and the flow regime were studied with a simplified general circulation model. AGCE and the geophysical fluid flow cell (GFFC) instrumentation are discussed. Investigation of solar and planetary convection for GFFC is described. The utilization of satellite cloud observations to diagnose the energy state and transformations in extratropical cyclones is reviewed.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1982

The flux ejection dynamo effect

The mean-field effects of cyclonic convection become increasingly complex when the cyclonic rotation exceeds 1/2 pi. Net helicity is not required, with negative turbulent diffusion for instance, appearing in mirror symmetric turbulence. This paper points out a new dynamo effect arising in convective cells with strong asymmetry in the rotation of updrafts as against downdrafts. The creation of new magnetic flux arises from the ejection of reserve flux through the open boundary of the dynamo region. It is unlike the familiar alpha-effect in that individual components of the field may be amplified independently. Several formal examples are provided to illustrate the effect. Occurrence in nature depends upon the existence of fluid rotations of the order of pi in the convective updrafts. The flux ejection dynamo may possibly contribute to the generation of field in the convective core of earth and in the convective zone of the sun and other stars.

Parker, E. N.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Cloud encounter statistics in the 28.5-43.5 KFT altitude region from four years of GASP observations

The results of an analysis of cloud encounter measurements taken at aircraft flight altitudes as part of the Global Atmospheric Sampling Program are summarized. The results can be used in estimating the probability of cloud encounter and in assessing the economic feasibility of laminar flow control aircraft along particular routes. The data presented clearly show the tropical circulation and its seasonal migration; characteristics of the mid-latitude regime, such as the large-scale traveling cyclones in the winter and increased convective activity in the summer, can be isolated in the data. The cloud encounter statistics are shown to be consistent with the mid-latitude cyclone model. A model for TIC (time-in-clouds), a cloud encounter statistic, is presented for several common airline routes.

Jasperson, W. H.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Analysis of a California Catalina eddy event

During the period 26-29 May 1968 a shallow cyclonic circulation, known locally as a Catalina eddy, developed in the offshore waters of southern California. A synoptic and mesoscale analysis of the event establishes the following: (1) the incipient circulation forms on the coast near Santa Barbara downwind of the coastal mountains, (2) cyclonic shear vorticity appears offshore in response to lee troughing downstream of the coastal mountains between Vandenberg and Pt. Mugu, California, (3) mountain wave activity may be aiding incipient eddy formation in association with synoptic-scale subsidence and the generation of a stable layer near the crest of the coastal mountains, (4) a southeastward displacement and offshore expansion of the circulation occurs following the passage of the synoptic-scale ridge line, and (5) dissipation of the eddy occurs with the onset of a broad onshore flow.

Bosart, L. F.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Mesoscale meteorology - Theories, observations and models; Proceedings of the Advanced Study Institute, Bonas, Gers, France, July 13-31, 1982

Among the topics discussed are mesoscale processes and variability, regional and cyclonic scale motions and their prediction modeling, fronts, mesoscale instabilities, buoyancy (gravity) waves and topographic forcing, buoyant convection, boundary layers, and observational technology. The specific issues investigated include methods for initializing mesoscale forecast models, an energy theory for the propagation of gravity currents, a theory for rain bands within extratropical cyclones, the morning glory as a nonlinear wave phenomenon, cumulus clouds, the prediction of severe convection, planetary boundary layer parameterization, and three-dimensional wind field analysis from Doppler radar data.

Lilly, D. K.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Studies of Atmospheric Water in Storms with the Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer

The new tools for the study of midlattitude cyclones by atmospheric water channels of the scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) on Nimbus 7, were discussed. The integrated atmospheric water vapor, total cloud liquid water and rain data were obtained from the Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR). The frontal structure of several midlattitude cyclones over the North Pacific Ocean as they approached the West Coast of North America were studied. It is found that fronts are consistently located at the leading edge of the strongest gradient in integrated water vapor. The cloud liquid water content has patterns which are consistent with the structure seen in visible and infrared imagery. The rain distribution is a good indicator of frontal location. It is concluded that the onset of rain on the coast can be forecast accurately by simple advection of the SMMR observed rain areas.

Katsaros, K. B.↗