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At least 775 records · Page 43

Dilated causal convolutional neural networks for forecasting zone airflow to estimate short-term energy consumption

Here this paper investigates the use of dilated causal convolutional neural networks for fine- grained temporal forecasting of building zone states. Specifically, we build and evaluate models using a small set of exogenous features (e.g., external temperature) to autoregressively predict zone airflow setpoints every minute for a 24-hour prediction window. We carefully explore the trade-off between generality and specificity in these models, training and evaluating them based on zone, zone type, month, season, and combinations thereof. When evaluated for a commercial office building in Eastern Washington with 16 zones served by variable air volume air handling units, we find that the highest performance comes from a zone-specific, season-agnostic approach; with it, we obtain an R 2 of 0.704 (averaged over zones) and an average normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) of 0.111. In contrast, the most general model (trained across all zones and seasons) yields an R 2 of only 0.416 and a nRMSE of 0.168, while a baseline zone-specific reduced order model obtains 0.443 R 2 and 0.159 nRMSE. We also report on factors affecting airflow forecasting performance, on the ability of models trained on a specific zone to generalize to other zones, and on the capability of those models trained on a specific month to generalize to other months.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Standardizing Performance Metrics for Building-Level Electrical Distribution Systems

Building-level electrical distribution systems comprise a myriad of current-carrying equipment, conversion devices, and protection devices that deliver power from the utility or local distributed energy resources to end-use building loads. Electric power has traditionally been generated, transmitted, and distributed in alternating current (AC). However, the last decade has seen a significant increase in the integration of native direct current (DC) equipment that has elevated the importance of DC distribution systems. Numerous studies have comparatively examined the performance of various electrical distribution systems in buildings but have failed to achieve uniform conclusions, primarily because of a lack of consistent and analogous performance evaluation methods. This paper aims to fill this gap by providing a standard set of metrics and measurement boundaries to consistently evaluate the performance of AC, DC, or hybrid AC/DC electrical distribution systems. The efficacy of the proposed approach is evaluated on a representative medium-sized commercial office building model with AC distribution and an equivalent hybrid AC/DC and DC distribution model, wherein the AC distribution model is concluded to be the most efficient. The simulation results show variation in computed metrics with different selected boundaries that verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach in ensuring consistent computation of the performance of building-level electrical distribution systems. This paper provides an initial set of guidelines for building energy system stakeholders to adopt appropriate solutions, thus leading to more efficient energy systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

State of Innovation 2025: Progress in Accelerating Next-Generation Cement and Concrete Technologies

The cement and concrete sectors are entering a decisive period as next-generation technologies advance from laboratory research to demonstration, early deployment, and first-of-a-kind commercial plants. Building on the 2024 State of Innovation report, the 2025 outlook highlights both the rapid acceleration of innovation and the urgent need for coordinated action across the value chain. Venture capital activity into the cement and concrete space stabilized following the record surge of 2022-2023, yet landmark financings, such as Sublime Systems' $200 million round and Terra CO2's $124 million Series B, signal continued investor confidence in companies approaching commercialization. Corporate procurement has become a powerful new catalyst, with Microsoft, Amazon, and CRH (Cement Roadstone Holdings) Ventures providing long-term commitments that underpin the first wave of next-generation cementitious products. The sector is shifting from early-stage experimentation toward the scaling of well-capitalized leaders capable of bridging the critical "capitalization gap." Early innovators continue to expand the toolkit through novel binders, electrochemical cements, biogenic limestone, and carbonate mineralization pathways. Going into 2026, cost competitiveness, durability validation, and scalability enabled by resilient supply chains remain the decisive factors for market adoption. At the 2025 Next Generation Cement and Concrete Critical Technologies Meeting, attendees emphasized dual-track funding strategies that integrate federal grants with private capital as key to enabling market breakthrough. State programs and corporate demand are sustaining momentum, while successful companies increasingly demonstrate both economic value and reduced dependence on imported materials. The National Concrete Pavement Technology Center and others underscored that broad integration of next-generation materials will hinge on standards compatibility, verified field performance, and workforce readiness. Colorado continues to serve as a proving ground through pilot programs that combine supplier training, phased implementation, and real-world data to de-risk innovation and provide replicable models for other regions. The 2025 Cement and Concrete Critical Technologies Workshop reinforced that scaling next-generation materials will require alignment among technology innovation, performance validation, and market demand. Stakeholders must move beyond siloed efforts toward collaborative frameworks that coordinate standards, funding, and infrastructure deployment. As a neutral convener and technical validator, the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) plays a pivotal role in bridging innovation and market adoption through collaborative research, technology validation, and entrepreneurship programs. By uniting innovators, incumbents, policymakers, contractors, and investors, NLR and its partners are helping chart a credible pathway toward widespread commercialization in the decade ahead.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Characterizing patterns and variability of building electric load profiles in time and frequency domains

The rapid development of advanced metering infrastructure provides a new data source—building electrical load profiles with high temporal resolution. Electric load profile characterization can generate useful information to enhance building energy modeling and provide metrics to represent patterns and variability of load profiles. Such characterizations can be used to identify changes to building electricity demand due to operations or faulty equipment and controls. In this study, we proposed a two-path approach to analyze high temporal resolution building electrical load profiles: (1) time-domain analysis and (2) frequency-domain analysis. Furthermore, the commonly adopted time-domain analysis can extract and quantify the distribution of key parameters characterizing load shape such as peak-base load ratio and morning rise time, while a frequency-domain analysis can identify major periodic fluctuations and quantify load variability. We implemented and evaluated both paths using whole-year 15-minute interval smart meter data of 188 commercial office building in Northern California. The results from these two paths are consistent with each other and complementary to represent full dynamics of load profiles. The time- and frequency-domain analyses can be used to enhance building energy modeling by: (1) providing more realistic assumptions about building operation schedules, and (2) validating the simulated electric load profiles using the developed variability metrics against the real building load data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Cost Analysis Framework for Comparing AC and DC Design Alternatives for Building Electrical Distribution Systems

In recent years, in response to the changing nature of building load, direct current (DC) distribution systems for buildings have been proposed as alternatives to traditional alternating current (AC) systems. DC distribution offers a closer match to the types of loads and generation sources found in modern buildings, the majority of which use DC electricity internally either natively or as a power conditioning stage. The proposed benefits of DC distribution compared to AC distribution within buildings include higher efficiency, lower installation cost, lower operating cost, higher reliability, improved communication and control, and simplicity. Most recent DC distribution research has focused on quantifying the efficiency advantage of DC distribution over AC distribution. However, energy savings alone do not guarantee cost savings; a more complete cost accounting is required to establish financial benefit. This report provides a framework for cost analysis and comparison of building electrical distribution systems, including common variants for both AC and DC distribution systems. The framework includes all major cost categories, including up-front costs (capital, installation labor, soft costs) and long-term costs (energy, operations and maintenance).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Ibis Networks/WattIQ (IN2 Final Report)

Ibis Networks is a full-stack cleantech company that provides plug-level energy monitoring and control to solve energy and asset management problems for the enterprise. During DATES – DATES, an NREL research team worked with the Ibis team to validate their product, the InteliSocket. The Ibis InteliSocket is a pass-through plug-load energy monitor and controller that is designed to reduce energy wasted by common 120 V plug-in devices in commercial office buildings, such as computer peripherals, conference room AV equipment, and break-room appliances. The system can shut off supply power to these end uses via remote control, manual switches, pre-set schedules, or automated control algorithms. The scope of this IN2 project was the development and refinement of “smart” learning behavior algorithms (LBAs), which could help installation processes and dramatically expand the sockets’ capabilities and energy-saving potential by suggesting suitable control schedules that are based on monitored use patterns. While Ibis has the analytical and software expertise for algorithm development, the lack of test data, both in a controlled laboratory setting and in real-life deployment scenarios, represented a key barrier toward commercialization of the product. Assistance through the IN2 program provided an opportunity to conduct the needed “trial and error” algorithm development. The project included baseline field-data collection, laboratory testing, and field validation components, all of which were conducted at the NREL campus between April 2017 and July 2019.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Performance assessment of a real water source heat pump within a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing environment

Over the last decade, the global fight against climate change through electrification has led to an increase in research on building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems that utilize intelligent control algorithms to provide demand-side grid service while also maintaining the thermal comfort of building occupants. As the pivotal point between building electricity consumption and indoor thermal comfort, high-efficiency electrical vapor-compression heat pumps are at the center of these emerging studies, and various grid-interactive and occupant-comfort control algorithms have been developed for them. The impact of these algorithms on heat pump operation and performance when subjected to different weather conditions, building loads, and grid requests calls for investigation and verification via experimental testing with actual heat pumps integrated with real-time building and grid responses. This study introduces a Water-Source Heat Pump (WSHP) Hardware-in-The-Loop (HIL) Test Facility that is the first of its kind. This testbed utilizes a 2-ton variable speed water-to-air heat pump that is capable of interacting with a virtual environment currently comprised of an EnergyPlus (E+) building simulation, an agent-based occupant behavioral model, and a single U-tube ground-loop heat exchanger (GLHE) model. Detailed descriptions of the testbed’s physical design and operation, virtual environment, as well as their mutual communication is provided. An uncertainty analysis is also performed under manufacturer specified heating and cooling design conditions. This analysis shows that the total load across the WSHP’s demand side heat exchanger, i.e., the sum of its latent and sensible components, can be measured with a relative uncertainty of ± 10.4% and ± 3.6% in cooling and heating mode respectively. The WSHP’s coefficient of performance (COP) can be measured with relative uncertainties of ± 10.4% in cooling mode, and ± 3.7% in heating mode. A preliminary 24-h experimental demonstration is then performed utilizing the DOE prototype small commercial office building model in E+. The simulation takes place in Atlanta, GA on the date of 08/26/15 from 12:00 AM to 11:59 PM using TMY3 weather data. Here, the results from this demonstration show that over the course of this experiment the simulated outputs of zone dry-bulb temperature, zone humidity ratio, and WSHP inlet water temperature can be tracked by testbed emulators up to a root mean squared error (RMSE) of ± 0.27 °C, ± 0.376 g/kg, and ± 0.85 °C respectively. The WSHP’s dynamic behavioral characteristics and performance are also captured, and correspond well with the authors’ previous understanding of heat pump efficiency as a function of evaporator and condenser fluid inlet conditions respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Field Study of Nonintrusive Load Monitoring Devices and Implications for Load Disaggregation

Evaluations of nonintrusive load monitoring (NILM) algorithms and technologies have mostly occurred in constrained, artificial environments. However, few field evaluations of NILM products have taken place in actual buildings under normal operating conditions. This paper describes a field evaluation of a state-of-the-art NILM product, tested in eight homes. The match rate metric—a technique recommended by a technical advisory group—was used to measure the NILM’s success in identifying specific loads and the accuracy of the energy consumption estimates. A performance assessment protocol was also developed to address common issues with NILM mislabeling and ground-truth comparisons that have not been sufficiently addressed in past evaluations. The NILM product’s estimates were compared to the submetered consumption of eight major appliances. Overall, the product had good performance in disaggregating the energy consumption of the electric water heaters, which included both electric resistance and heat-pump water heaters, but only a fair accuracy with refrigerators, dryers, and air conditioners. The performance was poor for cooking equipment, furnace fans, clothes washers, and dishwashers. Moreover, the product was often unable to detect major loads in homes. Typically, two or more appliances were not detected in a home. At least two dryers, furnace fans, and air conditioners went undetected across the eight homes. On the other hand, the dishwasher was detected in all homes where available or monitored. The key findings were qualitatively compared to those of past field evaluations. Potential areas for improvement in NILM product performance were determined along with areas where complementary technologies may be able to aid in load-disaggregation applications.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Bay Area Regional Energy: Network Integrated Commercial Retrofits (BRICR) Project. Final Report

The BRICR project applied large-scale building energy modeling concepts with the aim of reducing the cost of energy efficiency targeting, design, and project development, and measurement of energy savings for energy efficiency programs implemented by local governments that serve small and medium commercial buildings (SMB). The project leveraged the services and resources of existing local government energy programs serving disadvantaged and hard-to-reach SMB customers. In contrast to programs run by utilities, local government programs generally do not have direct access to energy billing records for an entire class of customers in a geographic area, which prior research demonstrated useful for large-scale building energy model baseline development and calibration. , However, local governments are rich in public records that offer important clues about physical attributes and uses that, along with behavior, determine energy use. Relying only on public records, BRICR demonstrated development of credible baseline energy models for 3,792 office, retail, and hotel buildings. Publicly disclosed annual energy use data from a local energy benchmarking program and anonymized data from the Building Performance Database, the nation’s largest dataset about energy-related characteristics of buildings, were utilized to validate and calibrate energy models via an innovative method comparing distributions of energy intensity by fuel type for portfolios of buildings of similar size, vintage, and use. Portfolio calibration does not provide certainty that an energy model fits an individual building; the method is useful when billing data is not accessible – a common situation for researchers, energy service providers and ESCOs, local governments, and any party other than a utility. A software component was developed, the BRICR gem, which automates simulation when relevant data is added or edited by the user to a file saved in the standardized BuildingSync XML schema for energy audit data. The component was demonstrated as a simplified means to generate a mass of energy models corresponding to public records containing basic attributes such as building scale, location, use, year built, and aspect ratio in combination with building energy code prototype data corresponding to use and vintage. The component was also demonstrated as a simplified means to automate energy simulation when attributes are revised; the intention was to enable iterative improvement of the baseline model and energy savings estimates for common energy conservation measures as users revise relevant attributes based on their observations. In the context of institutional change and uncertainty for the participating local government energy programs, 13 whole building retrofits were completed. Impacts were measured by applying the CalTRACK2.0 methods to standardize measurement of normalized metered energy consumption. The GRIDMeter methods of stratified sampling and individual load shape analysis were applied to adjust for impacts of the effect of COVID-19 on retrofitted buildings in the context of all local buildings of similar size and use. Excluding impacts of the pandemic, retrofitted buildings demonstrated between 1.6% and 25.1% reduction in energy use. The project contributed use cases and feedback that helped inform evolution of the software tools and data formats that were combined for the first time in the BRICR project.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Prototype energy models for data centers

Data centers in the United States consume about two percent of the nation’s electricity. Because heat gains from IT equipment drive cooling demand, data centers offer unique opportunities for energy savings. However, no prototype energy model for data centers is available in the suite of existing U.S. Department of Energy’s Commercial Prototype Building Models. Here we present the development of two new data center prototype models and their implementation in OpenStudio and EnergyPlus. The small-size data center model represents a computer room in a building served by computer room air conditioners (CRACs); while the large-sized model represents stand-alone data centers served by computer room air handlers (CRAHs) with a central chiller plant. For each data center model, two levels of IT equipment (ITE) load density were considered, to cover the wide range of IT power density of data centers: 40 and 100 W/ft 2 (430 and 1076 W/m 2 ) for the computer room, and 100 and 500 W/ft 2 (1076 and 5382 W/m 2 ) for the stand-alone data center. All other assumptions, such as building envelope, lighting, HVAC efficiencies and schedules, were based on the minimal requirements of ASHRAE Standard 90.1 at various vintages. We introduced a novel concept of supply and return air approach temperatures to capture the essential effects of non-uniform airflow and temperature distribution in data centers. The approach temperatures were pre-computed by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations for various configurations of ITE loads and airflow containment management in data centers. A new feature was developed in EnergyPlus to implement the approach temperature method. A case study was conducted to demonstrate the use of the data center models. The two data center models cover all U.S. climate zones and can be used to evaluate energy saving measures for data centers, as well as to support development of data center energy efficiency codes and standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Assessing uncertainty in the timing of energy use during cost-optimal distributed energy technology selection and sizing

This paper empirically derives uncertainty ranges in cost-optimal solar PV and storage sizing by comparing results from the REopt Lite optimization platform from metered data and a set of simulated Department of Energy Commercial Reference Building (CRB) profiles at 65 sites. We find load profile shape alone does not explain a site’s optimal configurations (i.e., PV, Storage, PV and Storage, No System). Still, load profile shape does introduce uncertainty to optimal PV and storage capacities. Across all cases where PV is part of an optimal configuration, we find the average ratio of power capacities derived from metered loads to capacities derived from CRB profiles to be 0.97 (and as high as 1463), where 1 would be a perfect match in system size. For storage, the ratio is 1.6 (and as high as 42). We also assess how, in the absence of complete metered data, a CRB profile can be selected that would be expected to yield the most similar solar PV and storage capacities. From those metrics that can be available from billing data (i.e., peak demand, monthly load totals), we find that uncertainty is most reduced by selecting the CRB’s with an annual peak occurring at the most similar time, or those with the lowest average root mean square error (RMSE) among monthly peak loads. This research can help improve the implementation and interpretation of results derived from simulated load profiles and is an important next step in advancing smart grid solutions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Magnetic Microcalorimeter Gamma Detectors with Ultra-High Energy Resolution. Final Report

The goal of this project was to build a commercially viable metallic microcalorimeter (MMC) g-spectrometer with an ultra-high energy resolution <50 eV for accurate non-destructive assay (NDA) of nuclear materials. Improved NDA simplifies and accelerates safeguards analyses in the nuclear fuel cycle and enhances capabilities to detect the diversion of nuclear materials for illicit purposes. High-resolution MMC g-spectrometers can also improve the accuracy of nuclear data that NDA is based on.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Magnetic Microcalorimeter Gamma Detectors with Ultra-High Energy Resolution - (Final Report)

The goal of this project was to build a commercially viable magnetic microcalorimeter (MMC) γ-spectrometer with an ultra-high energy resolution <50 eV for accurate non-destructive assay (NDA) of nuclear materials. Improved NDA simplifies and accelerates safeguards analyses in the nuclear fuel cycle and enhances capabilities to detect the diversion of nuclear materials for illicit purposes. High-resolution MMC γ-spectrometers can also improve the accuracy of nuclear data that NDA is based on.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Cost targets to achieve commercially viable thermal storage in buildings

To mitigate the variation in demand on the electric grid, thermal energy storage (TES) is an alternative to electric batteries or installing new peaking power plants. Stakeholders and policy makers across the United States have expressed interests in promoting TES, as demonstrated by the US Department of Energy’s Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings program and the efforts of various state legislatures. However, the cost value provided by TES are unclear. If reliable cost benefits were determined, stakeholders would have a clearer picture of the financial returns that can be gained from their investment in TES. In this report, EnergyPlus was used to perform whole-building simulations for two residential buildings in Indianapolis and Atlanta. The HVAC system in both buildings were equipped with phase change material TES. The TES tank was charged in off-peak hours and discharged in peak hours to perform load shifting. First, the economic value implied by existing time-of-use (TOU) rates offered by utility companies was analyzed via whole-building simulation. Second, existing demand reduction (DR) incentives sourced from 3 different electrical grid administrators (i.e., California, Texas, and New England region) were surveyed to determine their implied value. Lastly, the economic value implied by different types of deferred peak power plants were reviewed. The full value of TES to the entire society consists of value to the utility, OEMs, facility installers, and other stakeholders. This report focuses on the value to the utility with emphasis on the deferred capital of peak power plant. The value from the deferred capital of peak power plant is manifested to the customer in the form of demand reduction program and Time-of-Use utility rate program. In this report, an initial proxy of the value of TES is made by assuming the deferred capital cost of power plant is the full value to reduce peak demand. Three levels of financial value of TES systems were assessed. Two are currently available to some residential customers: (1) the benefit from TOU pricing alone and (2) the benefit from TOU pricing in combination with DR incentive programs. The third level was computed as the full cost of deferred capital cost of peaking power plants. This represents the potential value that could be gained by the utilities or conceivably be offered to consumers.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Blowdown Recovery System for Cooling Tower Water Treatment

From 2014-2017, the U.S. General Services Administration's (GSA's) average nationwide water rates increased 41%. Rapidly escalating costs, mandated water-reduction targets, and the fact that an average of 28% of commercial office building water use is associated with heating and cooling led the GSA Green Proving Ground program to select alternative water treatment technologies for in-field validation. This report summarizes the latest alternative water treatment evaluation completed in 2022 - a Blowdown Recovery System for Cooling Tower Water Treatment. This Green Proving Ground program project assessed the performance of an alternative water treatment system provided by Aqualogix for treating cooling tower blowdown at the Lloyd D. George U.S. Courthouse in Las Vegas, Nevada.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Catalyzing the Mass Adoption of High Efficiency Technologies in the Multifamily Housing Market

ICAST’s objective was to catalyze the adoption of very-high-efficiency (VHE) heat pump HVAC (mini-splits) and water heaters (HPWH) in multifamily (MF), especially affordable housing (MFAH). Nationally, the market penetration of ENERGY STAR-certified ASHPs is estimated at 43%, and for HPWHs it’s 3% (ENERGY STAR, 2022). Note that mini-splits are a much more practical choice for MF units than ducted systems and their adoption is only a portion of the number provided above, but isolating the market penetration data for mini-split systems is difficult. Both the heat pump-based HVAC and water heater systems can be approx. three times more efficient than their conventional counterparts for space and water heating. While awareness and adoption of VHE heat pumps has been growing nationally, and electric heat pump systems have outsold gas furnaces for two years in a row, the MF segment continues to lag behind single-family. MF constitutes almost a third of the housing in the U.S., so scaling up VHE adoption in this segment can assist in achieving critical climate change goals, while preserving housing affordability for the low-to-moderate income (LMI) population (historically, 85% of residents of MF are LMI).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗